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Tags 2020 elections , Howard Schultz , presidential candidates , third parties , third party candidates

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Old 31st January 2019, 06:11 PM   #81
Tero
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How much votes is the max a 3rd candidate ever got?
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Old 31st January 2019, 06:29 PM   #82
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
How much votes is the max a 3rd candidate ever got?
I can't remember which one got the most votes, but Teddy Roosevelt came the closest to winning when running on the Bull Moose ticket in 1912. He came in second to Woodrow Wilson, beating out the GOP Candidate, William Taft, by a million votes. I think Perot might have gotten more votes because the population was so much greater, but TR came closest to winning the White House of all Third Party Candidates. Perot did not nearly come as close.
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Old 31st January 2019, 06:33 PM   #83
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Ross Perot got 19% popular votes
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot
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Old 31st January 2019, 06:35 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
"Centrist" nowadays just means "big business republican who isn't a religious nut or full on anarcho-capitalist. "
ETA: Bush-era neoconservatives are "centrists" now, as is the "donor base" of the Democratic Party.

Someone is sure living in a little political bubble of their own..........
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Old 31st January 2019, 06:37 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Ross Perot got 19% popular votes
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot
BUT Teddy Roosevelt got 27%. He easily came the closest to winning of any Third Party candidate.
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Old 31st January 2019, 06:43 PM   #86
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Hard Line Ideologues hold Centrists in contempt. Now there is something new....
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Old 31st January 2019, 07:23 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Hard Line Ideologues hold Centrists in contempt. Now there is something new....
Supporting things like UHC, the social safety net, and progressive taxation is not "being an ideologue", hardline or otherwise.

No kidding, some of the people who consider themselves "centrists" seem like radicals to me, seeing everyone on the left as "fringe", and with absolutely no self-awareness of where they themselves fall on the political spectrum as "opportunity democrats".
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Last edited by kellyb; 31st January 2019 at 07:26 PM.
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Old 1st February 2019, 02:11 PM   #88
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Hard Line Ideologues hold Centrists in contempt. Now there is something new....
It's charming to say "Let's get together, let's all get along," but at some point you to have to choose a side between irreconcilable positions. You either support legal abortion, or you want more restrictions. You either support higher taxes on rich people or you don't. You support universal health care or you don't, and even if you do you have to choose among multiple models that might include full nationalization like the UK's NHS, or regulated private insurance companies like Germany, Switzerland, Japan etc., or the system we have plus a public option for people who can't insurance through a job, or maybe some new variation. You either want to get out of Syria, or stay in. Etc., etc. Sitting on the fence starts to get uncomfortable eventually. The nature of the Presidency is that you have to choose from imperfect options; if everybody agreed on the right course of action the decision wouldn't even get to the White House.
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Old 1st February 2019, 02:20 PM   #89
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
It's charming to say "Let's get together, let's all get along," but at some point you to have to choose a side between irreconcilable positions. You either support legal abortion, or you want more restrictions. You either support higher taxes on rich people or you don't. You support universal health care or you don't, and even if you do you have to choose among multiple models that might include full nationalization like the UK's NHS, or regulated private insurance companies like Germany, Switzerland, Japan etc., or the system we have plus a public option for people who can't insurance through a job, or maybe some new variation. You either want to get out of Syria, or stay in. Etc., etc. Sitting on the fence starts to get uncomfortable eventually. The nature of the Presidency is that you have to choose from imperfect options; if everybody agreed on the right course of action the decision wouldn't even get to the White House.

So the choice is between two extremes with no compromise possible.
Nice.
All I know is in countries where the political center dies, Democracy soon dies thereafter.
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Old 1st February 2019, 02:27 PM   #90
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
So the choice is between two extremes with no compromise possible.
Nice.
All I know is in countries where the political center dies, Democracy soon dies thereafter.
What's extreme? A large majority of Americans support tougher restrictions on firearms. A large majority of Americans want to keep abortions legal. A large majority of Americans want some form of universal health care, although the details are certainly debatable. When two positions are opposed, it doesn't mean they are both extreme. When a small minority defeats the will of a majority, that's what subverts democracy.
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Old 1st February 2019, 03:25 PM   #91
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
So the choice is between two extremes with no compromise possible.
Nice.
All I know is in countries where the political center dies, Democracy soon dies thereafter.
"Extremes" would be having to choose between
a) nationalize all industries
b) abolish all federal gov programs besides the military.

The fact that you consider all these options...

Quote:
multiple models that might include full nationalization like the UK's NHS, or regulated private insurance companies like Germany, Switzerland, Japan etc., or the system we have plus a public option for people who can't insurance through a job, or maybe some new variation.
..."extreme" shows how radical you are.
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Old 1st February 2019, 06:04 PM   #92
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Someone is sure living in a little political bubble of their own..........

I suspect his problem is that he only ever talks politics with rich people at his black tie dinners. I'm sure they don't understand why we need to overhaul the health insurance system and are appalled at the idea of higher taxes.




As an interesting aside I find it funny that seemingly everyone on the internet claims to never buy Starbucks and yet.....they keep raking it in. I think it is almost like some sort of hip stance to decry the incredibly popular thing. Well not me, I'm not into coffee generally but I will get their frappes.
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Old 1st February 2019, 11:35 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I think Shultz is delusional. He's not very charismatic and not even popular in his home state of Washington. In fact, he's a bit of a pariah in Seattle.
Sure, but could probably whip up enough votes ensure a second term for Trump. It is probably the plan in any case, I imagine that a billionaire Democrat is a billionaire first and a Democrat a very distant second.
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Old 2nd February 2019, 07:17 PM   #94
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Poll: Howard Schultz's favorability just 4 percent across Dems, GOP and independents
He's brought the country together in a way.
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Old 2nd February 2019, 07:33 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
Sure, but could probably whip up enough votes ensure a second term for Trump. It is probably the plan in any case, I imagine that a billionaire Democrat is a billionaire first and a Democrat a very distant second.
I don't think he could do that. He's not Bloomberg. As I said, he's not charismatic in any way. Democrats are not going to vote for him.He may get some Republicans who won't for Trump or a Democrat. But that is it.
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Old 2nd February 2019, 10:38 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I don't think he could do that. He's not Bloomberg. As I said, he's not charismatic in any way. Democrats are not going to vote for him.He may get some Republicans who won't for Trump or a Democrat. But that is it.
I'm willing to bet if he gets any votes most of them will be from people who mistake him for the guy who wrote the Peanuts comic strip.
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Old 4th February 2019, 09:35 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Most progressives I know are leaning Warren. She's a law professor who's easy to imagine as a benevolent 5th grade teacher.

Progressives are a-ok with boring as long as the policies are correct.
Generally agreed, with the conditional that we are getting much better at spotting lip-service and don't consider it a valid substitute for a compelling history of having actually fought for those policies, not just trotted out progressive musings which see utterances early in campaigns only to vanish into a morphing incrementalism and hackneyed conservative-lite approach to governing between campaigns. I'm not leaning Warren, but I could do a nose hold vote for her depending upon what happens between now and a little less than 2 years from now, which is a lot more than I can say about any of the other candidates who have thus far announced their 2020 aspirations.
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Old 4th February 2019, 09:52 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by Bob001 View Post
It's charming to say "Let's get together, let's all get along," but at some point you to have to choose a side between irreconcilable positions. You either support legal abortion, or you want more restrictions. You either support higher taxes on rich people or you don't. You support universal health care or you don't, and even if you do you have to choose among multiple models that might include full nationalization like the UK's NHS, or regulated private insurance companies like Germany, Switzerland, Japan etc., or the system we have plus a public option for people who can't insurance through a job, or maybe some new variation. You either want to get out of Syria, or stay in. Etc., etc. Sitting on the fence starts to get uncomfortable eventually. The nature of the Presidency is that you have to choose from imperfect options; if everybody agreed on the right course of action the decision wouldn't even get to the White House.
The problems arise when we have a situation where ~60% of population prefers one set of positions, ~20% prefers a different set of polar opposite positions, 10% don't really care which way things go, they just want stability and to be left alone. The remaining 10% just want to burn everything to the ground and laugh at those trapped in the flames. Meanwhile the agitprop media paint everything with a broad false equivalency brush stroke while trying to sell hotdogs and peanuts to both sides during the fray they are greatly responsible for fomenting and sustaining.
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Old 4th February 2019, 12:24 PM   #99
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Originally Posted by Trakar View Post
Generally agreed, with the conditional that we are getting much better at spotting lip-service and don't consider it a valid substitute for a compelling history of having actually fought for those policies, not just trotted out progressive musings which see utterances early in campaigns only to vanish into a morphing incrementalism and hackneyed conservative-lite approach to governing between campaigns. I'm not leaning Warren, but I could do a nose hold vote for her depending upon what happens between now and a little less than 2 years from now, which is a lot more than I can say about any of the other candidates who have thus far announced their 2020 aspirations.
What unicorn candidate do you prefer?
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Old 4th February 2019, 07:36 PM   #100
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Can anyone find a person-with-name-recognition outside of Schultz' family that supports his run?
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Old 4th February 2019, 07:40 PM   #101
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I've read some more about the guy, apparently he's a real cheapskate. Gave his sports team employees Starbucks gift cards one year. Each card was worth $3.50. Worst part about that: you can't get normal gift cards at Starbucks for less than $5. He had them made especially for that time. He needed to save the buck-fifty.

Sounds quite a lot like Trump, really, in how he treats the little people.
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Old 4th February 2019, 10:22 PM   #102
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
Can anyone find a person-with-name-recognition outside of Schultz' family that supports his run?
There's probably a non-zero contingent supporting him because they confused him with Charles Schulz.
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Old 5th February 2019, 02:46 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
There's probably a non-zero contingent supporting him because they confused him with Charles Schulz.
Don't underestimate the power of misidentification. A disturbing number of people voted for Trump because they mistook him for a successful businessman.
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Old 5th February 2019, 11:11 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Don't underestimate the power of misidentification. A disturbing number of people voted for Trump because they mistook him for a successful businessman.
That, or they thought they were voting for Trumpy, the whimsical alien from beloved MST3K feature 'The Pod People'. Trumpy, fans will recall, could 'do stupid things'.
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Old 5th February 2019, 03:25 PM   #105
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New 538 article:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...trump-in-2016/

Quote:
Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative Voters Preferred Trump In 2016
So why does everyone seem so sure that a Howard Schultz candidacy would help the president win re-election?
Quote:
What we can do, however, is look back to 2016, when voters who are socially liberal but fiscally conservative also had to choose a presidential candidate.

Who did these voters, who are somewhere around 15 percent of the electorate, go for in 2016? The answer is complicated because it depends on which social and economic issues you look at: racial attitudes were more determinative of their presidential vote than views on gay marriage, for example. But according to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a comprehensive survey of more than 60,000 voters organized by Harvard University and conducted by YouGov, these voters were slightly more likely to vote for Trump than Hillary Clinton.
Quote:
But the headline is that, when choosing between the major-party candidates, these voters were more likely to go for Trump than Clinton. Among the 25 combinations of socially liberal and fiscally conservative views, Trump won the most votes 19 times, Clinton did so five times, and there was one draw. And on average between the 25 combinations, Trump won 52 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 40 percent. That’s not a huge margin: a 12-point edge among 16 percent of the electorate. But it adds up to enough voters that, if all of them had gone for a third party instead, Clinton would have won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida, and therefore the Electoral College.
Quote:
For instance, among all voters who wanted to cut entitlement programs to balance the budget, Trump won 70-24.
Quote:
Among the 25 pairings testing a fiscal issue against a social issue, the fiscal issue “won” (was more influential) 15 times and the social issue won 10 times in the basic version of the model.
Quote:
But again, my goal here is not necessarily to convince you that a Schultz candidacy would certainly hurt Trump. Rather, it’s to discourage you from giving too much credit to the conventional wisdom, which asserts without much evidence that the opposite is true.
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Old 5th February 2019, 05:15 PM   #106
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Also from the article:

Quote:
The poll also found that in almost all cases, Schultz would take away votes from a Democratic nominee.

The poll found that, in a hypothetical match-up, Schultz's presence in the 2020 presidential race would take “an average of four points away from what the Democratic candidate receives in a two-way race, while taking just 1 [percent] away from Donald Trump.”
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Old 5th February 2019, 05:50 PM   #107
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Better the jackass you know...

Though I admit I'm open to arguments that Schultz is a better vote than Trump.
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Old 6th February 2019, 11:59 AM   #108
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
What unicorn candidate do you prefer?
Teddy Roosevelt circa 1910-1919 with a 2.0 upgrade to update his perspective and integrate the national and global occurrences of the last century,...as that unicorn doesn't appear stage-ready (you did request my preference), I'm uncertain at this time. I'm not comfortable with, or excited about, any of the announced Democratic, Republican or Independent candidates.


I don't know much about the following candidates, but am interested in investigating them further to see if they have policy positions and a history of fighting for them which could lead to my support for them:

Pete Buttigieg mayor of South Bend
https://www.peteforamerica.com/meet-pete/

Andrew Yang
https://www.yang2020.com/policies/

So far, that's about as far as my "unknown" candidates list has gotten, but I'm open to consideration of others (Republican, Independent, or Democratic) so long as I am convinced that they offer an evidence-based policy agenda towards a Progressive future in America.

As for the announced candidates who I feel I know enough about to offer tentative support at this time that would be pretty much limited to Tulsi Gabbard and Elizabeth Warren (so far), both of whom I have more than a few reservations concerning. That said, I would probably be able to do a nose-hold and vote for either with what I know about them right now, if it came down to that. If Sanders throws his hat in the ring, he would probably be a front-runner on my list, but he also has problems to overcome before I could enthusiastically support him. I'm still exploring the field, and if anyone has any suggestions, please let me know, I try to stay open at this point in such races. I'm primarily policy driven when it comes to how I exercise my votes for legislative representation and executive sponsorship.
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Old 6th February 2019, 04:18 PM   #109
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
That, or they thought they were voting for Trumpy, the whimsical alien from beloved MST3K feature 'The Pod People'. Trumpy, fans will recall, could 'do stupid things'.
One of my favorite MST3K episodes.
"It's Called Evil, Kid".
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Old 6th February 2019, 04:21 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by I Am The Scum View Post
Can anyone find a person-with-name-recognition outside of Schultz' family that supports his run?
Nobody, and that is another bad sign;if he had any momentum he would have has at least a few celebs jumping on his band wagon by now.
I now think he will get zero traction and will not be a factor in the election, even if he gets on the ballot. And I think a lot of people have a basis mistrust of ANY Billionaire without any political or government experience running for President after the Trump experience.
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Old 13th February 2019, 12:42 PM   #111
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If you want a example of "Glittering Generalaties" Schultz certainly gave it at his CNN Town Meeting last night. It was almost like a parody of the politician who dodged every tough question .
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Old 13th February 2019, 01:37 PM   #112
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
If you want a example of "Glittering Generalaties" Schultz certainly gave it at his CNN Town Meeting last night. It was almost like a parody of the politician who dodged every tough question .
Almost like a parody, but actually not.

The one thing that's fun to do when listening to a politician answer questions is to see how adept they are at diverting away from the question onto some other topic.

Bonus points if they're doing it in a formal setting where they're supposed to be forthrightly answering the question as asked.
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