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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Peter Dutton , Scott Morrison

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Old 13th January 2019, 01:06 PM   #601
fromdownunder
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Originally Posted by lionking
Jeez, is anyone denying the success of immigration to Australia? Certainly not me. Non-discriminatory immigration? Nope. Multiculturalism? Again no.

I was not denying the success of immigration. I was applauding it. Where would any of us be without it?


If my great great great whatevers had not migrated here I would be somewhere in the Midlands worrying about how Brexit was going to affect my pension.



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Old 13th January 2019, 01:17 PM   #602
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You have no idea how many people want to escape their own circumstances and live in Australia. And what happens if their application for asylum is knocked back? They turn straight to a people smuggler.

If you don't make it loud and clear to people smugglers that they can't succeed they will operate in droves.
Sorry, that's being naive in the extreme. People smugglers are already outside the law, one boat or a flotilla. They are illegal in Indonesia, not just Australia. The reason they operate is simply for the money. They are prepared to be caught and imprisoned in Australia for a number of years because their family will be paid much more than they could earn as fisherman in that time. It's a highly lucrative business, lucrative enough to break the law for.

Given the business model, it's a VERY silly idea that "turning the boats back" is going to discourage people-smugglers. It's going to do the opposite - encourage them. Because they will already have been paid before they start out. So throwing a boat full of refugees back gives the smugglers a ready supply of desperate customers willing to pay to have another go soon after. You are multiplying their business, making it worse! Good job!

You are right in one thing. The people whom you need to convince in order to cut off this smuggling are the refugees. So if you can process them before they get the extreme idea to try the boats then it stops there. No need for them to go people smuggling, thrown back, try again, lather rinse repeat.

Since the vast majority of these couple of thousand people (that's all it is, not millions) are genuine refugees, it is going to be easier and cheaper to process and bring those qualifying in, rather than the expense and international opprobrium of throwing them back on the beach at Kuta again. And then have then do it all again a few months later.



Quote:
The camps were all filled to the brim again thanks to Rudd. They were pretty much in mothballs by the end of Howard's term though this isn't about the hard-on-refugees libs. They are expected to act like this.

In the end, Rudd acted more Howard like over the incessant people smuggling. He know of no other way to stop what was happening. (And I'm sure he thought of "speedy" processing).
True. Neither of them did that very well.
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Old 13th January 2019, 08:42 PM   #603
psionl0
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Since the vast majority of these couple of thousand people (that's all it is, not millions) are genuine refugees, it is going to be easier and cheaper to process and bring those qualifying in, rather than the expense and international opprobrium of throwing them back on the beach at Kuta again. And then have then do it all again a few months later.
"Sorry, that's being naive in the extreme." You think that the "couple of thousand people" who successfully landed on Australian shores is the extent of the demand.

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
True. Neither of them did that very well.
And neither would you. You have no original ideas on how to tackle people smugglers.
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Old 13th January 2019, 11:22 PM   #604
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
"Sorry, that's being naive in the extreme." You think that the "couple of thousand people" who successfully landed on Australian shores is the extent of the demand.
You only have to get four A380's land here in Sydney and you have a couple of thousand people to process ALL AT ONCE. And this happens many times per day, every day of the week. If we can get that number of people through Customs control in a couple of hours, surely it should not take many years to process a few hundred people on a boat or two.

So the notion that it is too daunting to process "so many" refugees doesn't fly. We can; we just choose not to by policy. We are being subject to the "great yellow brown hordes descending on Australian shores" scare tactic. Yes it is that old. And it is still not true.

Quote:
And neither would you. You have no original ideas on how to tackle people smugglers.
No I don't. That's not my field of expertise.

But I do know that throwing them back is not effective. Especially not discouraging for people-smugglers. They don't care if the boats get turned back, sink, get lost, or go to Hawaii instead. They are paid for the boats to LEAVE. So if you keep giving them repeat customers then they will keep trying to send them, and making more profit. That is not a discouragement at all. It is the direct opposite of what you are trying to achieve. Is that not obvious and clear?

Because it's been that way since the 1970's with the original Vietnamese boat people. And as soon as a way was found to accommodate getting Vietnamese refugees here (a political solution, btw), those boats stopped.

Clearly a better solution to stopping the boats revolves around resolving the refugee issues about getting to Australia BEFORE they get on any boat. I've suggested processing in the transit camps. Others have suggested something like that too and they have researched on the ground and know about this. Seems worth the effort of investigating if it could work better than what we do now. Do you have any better ideas?
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Old 14th January 2019, 01:11 PM   #605
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Norman

Of course psion's strategy is well known and we are all familiar with it. The strategy of downplaying the severity of the plight of the refugees and exaggerating the number. All figures demonstrating the bona fides of the people under threat, and the genuine danger they face in making this perilous journey, (thus re-enforcing the knowledge of their desperation), are ignored.
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Old 14th January 2019, 07:12 PM   #606
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
. . . < repeats previous posts > . . .
Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Norman

. . . < tries the race card > . . .
* Original posts altered to summary form

You guys have NO . . . . CLUE . . . . WHATSOEVER.

As soon as the Rudd government relaxed to previous Howard government's border policy, the empty assylum centres filled to overflowing. That is a FACT.

You would repeat the same result under your vague "do something different" ideas - - unless you believe that doing the same thing would generate a different result.
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Old 14th January 2019, 10:59 PM   #607
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Typical crap from psion. Did I mention race in my post?

The following is topical to this discussion.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-...sylum/10716182

Quote:
In a week, Rahaf al Qunun has gone from being barricaded inside a Bangkok airport hotel room to being the most recognised refugee on the planet.

She went to the Australian embassy in Bangkok on Wednesday, but by Friday her case was still being processed.
With growing concerns over her security and no clear timeline over how long Australia would take, the UNHCR then referred her case to Canada and her visa was processed within several hours.

How can the Canadians do this so much better and with such expediency and we in Australia cannot? Shame Australia shame.
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Old 14th January 2019, 11:14 PM   #608
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*SIGH*

How about some light reading on the subject, psion? Sorry, but this is full of facts, and runs pretty much counter to your statements about deterrence. Here's some people who should know telling you.

Quote:
The UNHCR has long been aware of the tensions specific to the Asia Pacific region, posing challenges for all the regional governments, including Australia. However, it questions the effectiveness of increasingly harsh deterrence measures in stemming asylum flows, arguing that in the long-term the threat of detention or even drowning may be perceived to be the lesser evil for desperate asylum seekers. Former United Nations Assistant High Commissioner for Protection, Erica Feller, asserts that investment in deterrence is inevitably ‘doomed to failure’ for those reasons:

Investment in deterrence as the preferred solution to the challenge posed [to] States by irregular boat arrivals is doomed to failure … boats … have long been and remain a lifeline for the desperate … the boats will continue as long as the root causes of departure remain unresolved.

In the long-term, greater cooperation with our regional neighbours on a burden-sharing basis is seen by the UNHCR to be a key component of future progress. Many other stakeholders agree, arguing that there should be more focus on genuine cooperative engagement and burden-sharing with our neighbours.

Under such an approach, regional processing of asylum seekers under the auspices of the UNHCR and the IOM might be negotiated through a regional cooperative framework such as the Bali Process. Other long-term burden-sharing options might include the development of programs like the Comprehensive Plan of Action (established to deal with the Indochinese asylum flows) together with the creation of more protection space for those found to be in need of protection along the ‘displacement corridors’.
A comparison of Coalition and Labor government asylum policies in Australia since 2001, as published on the Parliament of Australia website.
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Old 15th January 2019, 10:03 PM   #609
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
*SIGH*

How about some light reading on the subject, psion? Sorry, but this is full of facts, and runs pretty much counter to your statements about deterrence. Here's some people who should know telling you.



A comparison of Coalition and Labor government asylum policies in Australia since 2001, as published on the Parliament of Australia website.
Other than its conclusion that offshore processing "doesn't work", the report says pretty much what I have been saying.
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Old 15th January 2019, 10:48 PM   #610
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Other than its conclusion that offshore processing "doesn't work", the report says pretty much what I have been saying.
Apart from all the assertions that "investment in deterrence is inevitably ‘doomed to failure’...as long as the root causes of departure remain unresolved" stuff.
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Old 15th January 2019, 11:14 PM   #611
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Apart from all the assertions that "investment in deterrence is inevitably ‘doomed to failure’...as long as the root causes of departure remain unresolved" stuff.

Yep, that's the one. It is completely inconsistent with its recital of history:
Quote:
There were almost no boats arriving when the Rudd Government came to power at the end of 2007. Subsequently, on 8 February 2008 it was announced that the centres on Manus and Nauru would no longer be used and that any future unauthorised boat arrivals would be processed on Christmas Island.[10]

However, in response to rising numbers of boat arrivals, the Labor Government reversed this decision. In her first major policy speech in July 2010, Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced that the Labor Government had begun discussions with neighbouring countries over a proposal to re-establish ‘a regional processing centre for the purpose of receiving and processing irregular entrants to the region’.[11] Throughout this period the Coalition also supported the reintroduction of an offshore processing regime, but favoured the reinstatement of a processing centre specifically on Nauru.[12]
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Old 15th January 2019, 11:43 PM   #612
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Yep, that's the one. It is completely inconsistent with its recital of history:
It is? Plenty of hard data supports the assertion that refugee numbers by boat correspond to the size of the forces driving them out of their home counties. After all, nothing else happened in the world in 2007 except for cranking up the Afghanistan war and Middle East tensions, forcing hundreds of thousands out of their countries. Also, the number of "boat people" was minuscule, a tiny fraction, compared to those arriving by plane daily and seeking asylum who didn't get in the news.

But you stick with your simplistic view if you wish.
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Old 16th January 2019, 12:11 AM   #613
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
It is? Plenty of hard data supports the assertion that refugee numbers by boat correspond to the size of the forces driving them out of their home counties. After all, nothing else happened in the world in 2007 except for cranking up the Afghanistan war and Middle East tensions, forcing hundreds of thousands out of their countries. Also, the number of "boat people" was minuscule, a tiny fraction, compared to those arriving by plane daily and seeking asylum who didn't get in the news.
And none of that is in the report you linked to.

But you stick with your simplistic view if you wish.
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Old 16th January 2019, 08:05 PM   #614
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Clive Palmer's party uses unsolicited political text messages to announce ban on unsolicited political texts

Quote:
Would-be politician Clive Palmer appears to have sent more unsolicited text messages to unsuspecting voters — ironically promising to ban unwelcome messages from political parties.

The latest attempt to garner votes by the controversial businessman came as his United Australia Party's sole representative in Parliament, New South Wales senator Brian Burston, claimed he had no knowledge his boss was using such means to spread the party's message.

Mr Palmer has defended his use of unsolicited text messages, arguing it is entirely legal under the privacy act, which allows political parties to access voter details.

The latest messages state: "United Australia Party will ban unsolicited political text messages which Labor & Liberal have allowed."

It is not clear exactly who sent the messages, as the website listed in the texts is not UAP's official website. Rather, the link takes people to a blank page that simply states: "Authorised by S. Sokolova, United Australia Party, Brisbane."

That website is registered to a staffer of Mr Palmer, James McDonald. The ABC has attempted to contact Mr Palmer and Mr McDonald.
I can actually see the reasoning behind this. By sending legal unsolicited texts, he is highlighting how annoying they are, which lends weight to his campaign to ban them. "See? Vote for me so I can stop people doing this very thing that is annoying you right now."

Unfortunately for Clive (and his misguided marketing team), this can only backfire.
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Old 17th January 2019, 12:22 AM   #615
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
* Original posts altered to summary form

You guys have NO . . . . CLUE . . . . WHATSOEVER.

As soon as the Rudd government relaxed to previous Howard government's border policy, the empty assylum centres filled to overflowing. That is a FACT.
Admittedly it's been a few years and I'm quite old now, but IIRC didn't these figures also reflect general trends in worldwide asylum numbers moreso than any change in government policy? (Not saying the following pics are correct, but it was something discussed at the time.)





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Old 17th January 2019, 02:07 AM   #616
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Originally Posted by Sceptic-PK View Post
Admittedly it's been a few years and I'm quite old now, but IIRC didn't these figures also reflect general trends in worldwide asylum numbers moreso than any change in government policy? (Not saying the following pics are correct, but it was something discussed at the time.)

It is not clear if those charts show boat people only or all asylum seekers. Regardless, they show that asylum seekers rose much more rapidly in Australia than in the OECD from 2007 onwards.
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Old 17th January 2019, 05:35 AM   #617
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
And none of that is in the report you linked to.
Well, it was, but whatever.

Quote:
But you stick with your simplistic view if you wish.
No, but thanks. I'll go with the formal Parliamentary reporting instead. As I linked.
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Old 17th January 2019, 05:39 AM   #618
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It is not clear if those charts show boat people only or all asylum seekers. Regardless, they show that asylum seekers rose much more rapidly in Australia than in the OECD from 2007 onwards.
OK, let's play this game. First question.

Why does it show almost double the current rate of asylum seekers in 2000-2002, which was under the Howard Liberal government?
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Old 17th January 2019, 09:52 PM   #619
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
How can the Canadians do this so much better and with such expediency and we in Australia cannot?
Hint: It rhymes with "Mutton".
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Old 17th January 2019, 10:37 PM   #620
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
Hint: It rhymes with "Mutton".
Starts with a "D"?
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Old 17th January 2019, 11:56 PM   #621
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It is not clear if those charts show boat people only or all asylum seekers. Regardless, they show that asylum seekers rose much more rapidly in Australia than in the OECD from 2007 onwards.
Well yeah, I think it was obvious from my post that I wasn't suggesting it as a definitive analysis (and I wasn't stating you were wrong or that changes in policy have no effect). I'd also be a little suspicious of a graph that showed the two in lockstep, given the many different variables involved. However, I think to separate correlation from causation it's necessary to consider "illegal" arrivals within the broader figures of overall asylum migration (both worldwide and Australian).
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Old 18th January 2019, 12:20 AM   #622
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Why does it show almost double the current rate of asylum seekers in 2000-2002, which was under the Howard Liberal government?
The chart doesn't show "current" inflows. It stops at 2011.

What the chart does show is that inflows slowed dramatically once Howard's "Pacific Solution" was implemented in 2001. Curiously enough, the inflows started rising again from 2004 onwards (though there were no reports of asylum centres filling up from that time).

The chart also shows that from 2007 onwards, the trickle of inflows rapidly became a flood again.
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Old 18th January 2019, 03:48 AM   #623
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The chart doesn't show "current" inflows. It stops at 2011.

What the chart does show is that inflows slowed dramatically once Howard's "Pacific Solution" was implemented in 2001. Curiously enough, the inflows started rising again from 2004 onwards (though there were no reports of asylum centres filling up from that time).

The chart also shows that from 2007 onwards, the trickle of inflows rapidly became a flood again.
Isn't it interesting that the European refugee flows go almost in parallel to Australia's. So clearly the Howard government's policies affected Europe as well. Or perhaps...just maybe...there were other issues that affected refugee flows world wide!

Don't you think?
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Old 18th January 2019, 04:17 AM   #624
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Isn't it interesting that the European refugee flows go almost in parallel to Australia's. So clearly the Howard government's policies affected Europe as well. Or perhaps...just maybe...there were other issues that affected refugee flows world wide!

Don't you think?
You must be looking at the wrong chart. The one I looked at shows Australia's influx dropping dramatically from 2001 while in the OECD it was still peaking. Afterwards the OECD figure declined but I don't know if that was due to any change in OECD policies.

What I know is that from 2007 the Australian number climbed steeply but there was no corresponding climb in the OECD.
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Old 19th January 2019, 04:06 AM   #625
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Kelly O'Dwyer resigns. The rats are jumping off the sinking ship. Her resignation speech was sickening. Supporting a breast feeding mother? Oh piss off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJVm94vjrpQ
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Old 19th January 2019, 04:31 AM   #626
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You must be looking at the wrong chart. The one I looked at shows Australia's influx dropping dramatically from 2001 while in the OECD it was still peaking. Afterwards the OECD figure declined but I don't know if that was due to any change in OECD policies.
No, Australian policies, not OECD. How come Australian policies seem to have affected global refugee numbers.

Quote:
What I know is that from 2007 the Australian number climbed steeply but there was no corresponding climb in the OECD.
It's amazing how some people can look at the obvious and not see it. Why do you think there was an influx of refugees in 2007? And before you fall back to the usual "Rudd opened the gates" waffle, I would like you to explain what was going on in the places where those refugees came from.
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Old 19th January 2019, 04:10 PM   #627
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
No, Australian policies, not OECD. How come Australian policies seem to have affected global refugee numbers.
Because I stopped beating my wife.
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Old 19th January 2019, 09:39 PM   #628
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Kelly O'Dwyer resigns. The rats are jumping off the sinking ship. Her resignation speech was sickening. Supporting a breast feeding mother? Oh piss off.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJVm94vjrpQ

Yes. Most certainly not impressive. Scott smilling over her shoulder was somewhat nauseating to see also.
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Old 19th January 2019, 09:45 PM   #629
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Because I stopped beating my wife.

Beaten into a corner by Norman's relentless and persuasive argument you duck out with an attempted weak joke - yes good one psion. I give you a high score for consistency however.
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Old 20th January 2019, 01:20 PM   #630
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I'm sure that your blind loyalty is appreciated.
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Old 20th January 2019, 03:19 PM   #631
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Because I stopped beating my wife.
Good to hear. But meanwhile, the questions remain unanswered.
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Old 20th January 2019, 09:59 PM   #632
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Good to hear. But meanwhile, the questions remain unanswered.
I guess I was too subtle for you.

The answer is that Australian policies didn't affect global refugee numbers and if you think that I ever said otherwise then you must be reading another forum.
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Old 20th January 2019, 10:08 PM   #633
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I guess I was too subtle for you.

The answer is that Australian policies didn't affect global refugee numbers and if you think that I ever said otherwise then you must be reading another forum.
Well stagger me. That's what I thought too. And yet the world refugee trends moved pretty much in parallel with Australian refugee trends. As per your own graph.

So what can we conclude from that? Either Howard's policies DID affect OECD refugee trends, which we both agree is pretty silly. Or that Howard's policies had little effect at all - the trends went that way for other reasons.

Hence the question: What was happening elsewhere in the world where the refugees were coming from?
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Old 20th January 2019, 10:15 PM   #634
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Well stagger me. That's what I thought too. And yet the world refugee trends moved pretty much in parallel with Australian refugee trends. As per your own graph.
That wasn't my chart (I didn't link to one) and GOTO 624.
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Old 21st January 2019, 02:08 PM   #635
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So now a little girl has written a letter suggesting Australia Day be moved to a different date.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-...nment/10729650

Quote:
A young girl has pleaded with the nation's leaders to move Australia Day because "it's a day for the Aboriginal people to feel sad and I don't think that's right".
However:

Quote:
Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion last January said not a single Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person had approached him about changing the date of the national day.
Surely the honourable Nigel Scullion would not lie would he?

But then:

Quote:
The ABC has obtained a cache of letters and emails sent to Senator Scullion about Australia Day.
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Old 21st January 2019, 02:26 PM   #636
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Well stagger me. That's what I thought too. And yet the world refugee trends moved pretty much in parallel with Australian refugee trends. As per your own graph.

So what can we conclude from that? Either Howard's policies DID affect OECD refugee trends, which we both agree is pretty silly. Or that Howard's policies had little effect at all - the trends went that way for other reasons.

Hence the question: What was happening elsewhere in the world where the refugees were coming from?

The psion strategy is well known.

Ignoring the core of the argument, regarding the existence of genuine refugees and whether we should feel some empathy for and obligation towards them, and centre on the failed attempts of what has been done before. Assuming those arguing for assisting refugees are lefties and Labor Party supporters, you drag their less than adequate efforts into the picture also. Thereby cementing the impression that nothing can be done.
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Old 21st January 2019, 04:48 PM   #637
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Can we return the topic of discussion to the Liberal National Coalition's imminent disintegration? That's much more fun than slagging each other off.
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Old 21st January 2019, 05:01 PM   #638
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Can we return the topic of discussion to the Liberal National Coalition's imminent disintegration? That's much more fun than slagging each other off.
I'm hoping to watch the support for Dutton and Abbott dissolve in real time like a pair of Disprin.

ETA: Yay First Dog!
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Old 21st January 2019, 05:34 PM   #639
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
I just came back to this thread to post that. First Dog rocks.
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Old 21st January 2019, 07:06 PM   #640
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
I'm hoping to watch the support for Dutton and Abbott dissolve in real time like a pair of Disprin.

ETA: Yay First Dog!
No. We should delay the election as long as possible. Make sure the Liberals completely disintegrate. This may mean that the opposition party becomes the Greens. Or maybe some loony party that is even worse than the Liberals. National party anyone?

Edit. I also want to watch the lower house. See non government legislation get passed without Government support.
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