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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Peter Dutton , Scott Morrison

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Old 19th February 2019, 04:36 AM   #761
Robin
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Tapping on the pipes.
Don't knock it. It is probably pretty hard to hack tapping of pipes from China.
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Old 19th February 2019, 07:36 AM   #762
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
I appreciate your playing the part of the "concerned Liberal voter". But let's look at it purely from a money point of view.

People smugglers charge roughly $2000 per person, well down from $10,000-plus some years ago.https://www.sbs.com.au/news/people-s...nt-boat-prices

Meanwhile, a one-way air ticket from Malaysia or China costs (very) roughly $500 to $1000.

https://flights.agoda.com/flights/KU...t=bestflight_a

So it is actually cheaper to fly in than go on a boat. Plus there is also the abject silence of the current government on "illegals" arriving by air versus by boat. Plus asylum seekers by air don't get put in offshore detention. It is the cheapest, fastest, least problematic and lowest risk option for would-be asylum seekers, and is thus the most popular.
They're also less likely to get refugee status. In some ways the biggest obstacle to being able to arrive by plane is getting a visa, since you can't get on a plane to Australia without one. It's always been a pretty big deciding factor on the boats v plane issue.
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Old 19th February 2019, 12:54 PM   #763
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
They're also less likely to get refugee status. In some ways the biggest obstacle to being able to arrive by plane is getting a visa, since you can't get on a plane to Australia without one. It's always been a pretty big deciding factor on the boats v plane issue.
Oh sure! The success rate of asylum seekers does not improve no matter how you arrive. Just that the handling is significantly different for "boat people". It is totally discriminatory, inhumane and unnecessary.

Incidentally, you can get ON a plane to Australia without an Australian visa. Passports are usually used only as ID checks for the tickets. From some countries you don't even need a passport, although there is a thriving industry in South East Asia and the Middle East in cheap fake passports (and credit cards, etc). The time you need a visa is when you step up to the Customs gate at an entry port in Oz. And that's when refugees claim asylum and the circus begins.
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Old 19th February 2019, 02:07 PM   #764
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Oh sure! The success rate of asylum seekers does not improve no matter how you arrive. Just that the handling is significantly different for "boat people". It is totally discriminatory, inhumane and unnecessary.

Incidentally, you can get ON a plane to Australia without an Australian visa. Passports are usually used only as ID checks for the tickets. From some countries you don't even need a passport, although there is a thriving industry in South East Asia and the Middle East in cheap fake passports (and credit cards, etc). The time you need a visa is when you step up to the Customs gate at an entry port in Oz. And that's when refugees claim asylum and the circus begins.

Yes that's right. Having travelled to and from different countries it is only when entering a country I have been asked to produce a visa, if needed. In some countries, like Thailand, you can buy a visa when you land.

So, given it's cheaper to fly to OZ than go by leaky boat, and fake passports are easily obtained, could it be that many of the would be dreaded "boat people" are now "Qantas people".
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Old 19th February 2019, 04:50 PM   #765
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Yes that's right. Having travelled to and from different countries it is only when entering a country I have been asked to produce a visa, if needed. In some countries, like Thailand, you can buy a visa when you land.

So, given it's cheaper to fly to OZ than go by leaky boat, and fake passports are easily obtained, could it be that many of the would be dreaded "boat people" are now "Qantas people".
What confuses me is that if this is true, why are there boat people at all?
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Old 19th February 2019, 05:15 PM   #766
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
What confuses me is that if this is true, why are there boat people at all?
There are now very few. Which is why Morrison's bullhorn effort is so ridiculous.

Refugees in Indonesia say few would risk a boat ride to Australia
Quote:
While Morrison has perpetuated fear-mongering claims the asylum seeker “beast” could be once again stirring, in Indonesia it is totally different story. Not one of the six refugees interviewed for this story said they knew anyone willing to get on a boat.

Besides the financial infeasibility for most, few are willing to put their life in the hands of a people smuggler.

Mozhgan Moarefizadeh, an Iranian refugee and co-founder of the Refugees & Asylum Seekers Information Centre, says hardly anyone sees taking a boat as a viable option anymore.
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Old 19th February 2019, 06:13 PM   #767
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
There are now very few. Which is why Morrison's bullhorn effort is so ridiculous.

Refugees in Indonesia say few would risk a boat ride to Australia
It was a very different story under the Rudd/Gillard regimes. Then the boats were coming in by the flotilla and all the asylum centres were filled to bursting point.

Scomo's policy of turning the boats back has been so successful that 6 of the would be refugees haven't been approached by people smugglers and have not thought of traveling to Australia by boat.
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Old 19th February 2019, 06:13 PM   #768
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Some would say that's a win for Morrison.
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Old 19th February 2019, 06:25 PM   #769
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Some would say that's a win for Morrison.
That' why Scomo is so determined to make this election about asylum seekers.
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Old 19th February 2019, 06:38 PM   #770
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It was a very different story under the Rudd/Gillard regimes. Then the boats were coming in by the flotilla and all the asylum centres were filled to bursting point.
No, that's not actually true. That's the News Ltd view of history - how they would like it to be misremembered.

The boats never came in by the flotilla. The numbers show that, even then, half the refugees came by boat and half by air. There was never a problem with housing the volume of refugees. You may recall L'il Johnnie had a big camp built at Woomera, before Labor were in power.

Quote:
Scomo's policy of turning the boats back has been so successful that 6 of the would be refugees haven't been approached by people smugglers and have not thought of traveling to Australia by boat.
"Turn backs" are Scomo's policy?? It was Rudd's policy initially! And Gillard continued it. Then the Mad Abbott, Malcolm and now Scomo have continued it, promoted via the execrable Dutton.

And this is a really nice example of the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" logical fallacy too. Yes, boat arrivals have decreased (they are not gone yet though). But was it solely because of the turn backs? Actually, it is not. First, it was the time deterrent of being in detention for arriving by boat versus the cost of the boat journey. And second, much easier ways were found to make the journey...air travel being the major channel now. Just that it makes a much better story for the Murdoch press to say that it was turn-backs which were entirely responsible.
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Last edited by Norman Alexander; 19th February 2019 at 06:39 PM.
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Old 19th February 2019, 07:08 PM   #771
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
No, that's not actually true. That's the News Ltd view of history - how they would like it to be misremembered.
I notice that you didn't DARE quote a source for this revised history.

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
"Turn backs" are Scomo's policy?? It was Rudd's policy initially! And Gillard continued it. Then the Mad Abbott, Malcolm and now Scomo have continued it, promoted via the execrable Dutton.
And this is why. Rudd reinstated off shore processing in a desperate attempt to get boat people off the front page but it turned out to be too little to late. Nobody in Labor ever turned the boats back.
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Last edited by psionl0; 19th February 2019 at 07:11 PM.
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Old 19th February 2019, 07:18 PM   #772
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
What confuses me is that if this is true, why are there boat people at all?

Well the politicians would have us believe there aren't any now. They claim credit for this as a result of them waving the big stick. Perhaps the real reason is that the penny has dropped and they are coming by Qantas now. Being seen as stopping the boats is a vote magnet, but admitting they are still coming by other means not so.
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Old 19th February 2019, 09:41 PM   #773
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Perhaps the real reason is that the penny has dropped and they are coming by Qantas now.
You provide no evidence that the number of illegal arrivals by air has increased since the number of illegal arrivals by boat have decreased. There is even less reason to believe that they are the same "boat people" who chose air travel after boat travel became a non-option.
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Old 19th February 2019, 10:55 PM   #774
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https://twitter.com/CatherineKingMP/...72699555860480

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Wow. 2,527,921 Australians have opted out of the My Health Record. It's finally clear just how badly the Government's botched rollout damaged public trust in this important reform.

@CatherineKingMP
My Health Record is a good idea in principle. But it was implemented badly, so badly. I am among the two and a half million.
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Old 19th February 2019, 11:27 PM   #775
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
I notice that you didn't DARE quote a source for this revised history.
OK, let's take a little Google-walk.

https://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/boat-arrivals/

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...#_Toc413067443 (arrival stats up to 2014. This is a very good document to read as a whole.)

https://www.asyluminsight.com/air-arrivals#.XGz0CaBxU-U
Quote:
Whether they arrive by boat or by air, all unauthorised arrivals (that is, people who arrive without a valid visa) are detained. This is because, under the policy of mandatory detention introduced by the Keating government in 1992, all 'unlawful non-citizens' must be detained until their immigration status is determined. Under Australian law, asylum seekers who arrive by boat are called 'irregular maritime arrivals' (IMAs). All IMAs are placed in offshore immigration detention, in regional processing centres on Nauru and Manus Island. Air arrivals who seek asylum are placed in closed immigration detention in centres throughout Australia or in community detention while awaiting the determination of their claim for refugee status.
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Old 19th February 2019, 11:59 PM   #776
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...#_Toc413067443 (arrival stats up to 2014. This is a very good document to read as a whole.)
It sure is a good read. It shows (contrary to your denials) that boat arrivals increased markedly after the implementation of Rudd's policies and by 2010 they formed nearly half of all asylum arrivals (and both groups saw a big jump in numbers).
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Old 20th February 2019, 12:33 AM   #777
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
https://twitter.com/CatherineKingMP/...72699555860480



My Health Record is a good idea in principle. But it was implemented badly, so badly. I am among the two and a half million.
I am another. There have been too many hacks where private information has been released. This includes in cases where you would expect security to be very good. Hence my doctor only keeps paper records. You want to know about treatment she has given people? First you need to break into her office. On the other hand she does not have any backups.



Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
OK, let's take a little Google-walk.

https://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/boat-arrivals/

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliam...#_Toc413067443 (arrival stats up to 2014. This is a very good document to read as a whole.)

https://www.asyluminsight.com/air-arrivals#.XGz0CaBxU-U
That is a good find. It shows that all PMs from Rudd onward have implemented racist policies and POVs. This includes Shorten.

Now we just need later figures to see what happens after the boats were stopped. The second highest number of boat people came in the last year of the figures.
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Old 20th February 2019, 12:55 AM   #778
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The Helloworld/Cormann scandal.

https://junkee.com/mathias-cormann-helloworld/194249

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Cormann today told the Nine newspapers he had “no idea” that $2780.82 worth of flights for a family trip to Singapore in January 2018 had been paid for by Helloworld Travel, just weeks after the company successfully bid for part of a $300 million contract from Cormann’s department
The interesting thing to me is not that Cormann is on the take or the Treasurer of the Liberal Party runs a company which won a massive tender devided by Cormann’s Department. It’s that my son-in-law, a former Flight Centre high flyer, just took up an executive position reporting to CEO Burns. He deals with major corporate clients and airlines, but not government clients. Hope he stays clear of the **** storm. He only started a week or two ago, so should be okay.
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Old 20th February 2019, 02:35 PM   #779
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
You provide no evidence that the number of illegal arrivals by air has increased since the number of illegal arrivals by boat have decreased. There is even less reason to believe that they are the same "boat people" who chose air travel after boat travel became a non-option.

My comments were a little flippant or tongue in cheek, which apparently sailed harmlessly over your head. Norman has answered in a more serious and concise manner however.
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Old 20th February 2019, 06:50 PM   #780
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
It sure is a good read. It shows (contrary to your denials) that boat arrivals increased markedly after the implementation of Rudd's policies and by 2010 they formed nearly half of all asylum arrivals (and both groups saw a big jump in numbers).
*SIGH* I didn't deny it. What I DID point out was the reason why. It was not as simplistic as you keep saying.

For example, boat arrivals went up again during Abbott's reign, even with that long-term "deterrent" policy in place plus Dutton's comprehensive wannabe-tough-guy Border Farce response. So it is a bad case of "correlation is not causation" to make the simplistic claim that it is the deterrent effect and that alone which affects boat arrival numbers.

But we have been round this rodeo before, have we not? So I'm going to leave it at that and move on.
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Old 20th February 2019, 07:49 PM   #781
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
For example, boat arrivals went up again during Abbott's reign, . . . .
Where do you get such false statistics? Do you make them up?

Even your own source falsifies you. From 2012-13 to 2013-14 the boat arrivals actually halved. Whether this was due to Rudd's about face or the change of government is not clear but there is little doubt that cracking down on boat arrivals had the desired result.
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Old 20th February 2019, 08:52 PM   #782
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Where do you get such false statistics? Do you make them up?

Even your own source falsifies you. From 2012-13 to 2013-14 the boat arrivals actually halved. Whether this was due to Rudd's about face or the change of government is not clear but there is little doubt that cracking down on boat arrivals had the desired result.
Australia got involved in Afghanistan? More refugees from Iraq? The start of the flight of refugees from Syria? Outbreaks in Somalia and Sri Lanka? Offshore detention? Indonesian crack-downs on their own smugglers at our request? The gradual reduction of refugee numbers in interim locations as they went back, or went elsewhere or were absorbed into the local popultions. Or the Aus government simply not reporting the arrivals at all. Remember the "on-water security" policy where the LNP refused to make public what the arrival numbers REALLY where? What was the change in Navy action that was hidden by that, if any? Remember the orange lifeboat situation where they were given money and simply pushed back to Indonesia? And the scaled up exporting of refugees from Christmas Island and Woomera to tropical concentration camps on Manus and Nauru? Then there was, as we have already discussed, the increasingly easier route in via air travel.

Oh dear. So much other stuff that influenced the situation over time. And yet it was the turn-backs and them alone that "fixed the problem". Sure.
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Old 20th February 2019, 09:04 PM   #783
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Oh dear. So much other stuff that influenced the situation over time. And yet it was the turn-backs and them alone that "fixed the problem". Sure.
Pathetic. Having been caught out trying to say that boat arrivals increased when they actually decreased, you try to deflect attention away from your error with a pile of straw.
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Old 20th February 2019, 09:23 PM   #784
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"Hockey owes me."

I'm dying of schadenfreude. Somebody help me. Preferably by calling an election.

Originally Posted by Bill Shorten
“I start this speech with the following words – Hockey owes me. That tells you everything you need to know about this government. Somebody owes a Liberal donor, so they get a meeting. A liberal minister owes their mates who run a small private foundation, so they get $500m. A Liberal minister owes a chum who gets a juicy contract. The Liberals owe the big banks big time, so they vote against a royal commission 26 times.”


“This is a Liberal government of their donors, by the donors, for the donors”.
source, of course
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Old 20th February 2019, 09:40 PM   #785
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Pathetic. Having been caught out trying to say that boat arrivals increased when they actually decreased, you try to deflect attention away from your error with a pile of straw.
I must have been reading the different government and refugee stats than you.

Whatever.
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Old 20th February 2019, 09:42 PM   #786
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Julie Bishop has just announced that she is quitting politics and will not recontest her seat at the next election.

Julie Bishop, everyone. Who had money on Julie Bishop?
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Old 20th February 2019, 09:56 PM   #787
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*duplicate post*

Last edited by arthwollipot; 20th February 2019 at 09:57 PM.
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Old 21st February 2019, 01:19 AM   #788
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Honestly I was a little amazed at that as well.
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Old 21st February 2019, 01:37 AM   #789
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
"Hockey owes me."

I'm dying of schadenfreude. Somebody help me. Preferably by calling an election.



source, of course
Came back from Question time. Labor used that phrase to ask several questions. They were dodged. The Liberals are still attacking the Labor party more than boasting about their achievements. Remember the Labor party lost Government over five years ago. The best the Government can do is boast about how great the economy is. Except part time employment is at a very high level. About a third of the workforce.


Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Julie Bishop has just announced that she is quitting politics and will not recontest her seat at the next election.

Julie Bishop, everyone. Who had money on Julie Bishop?
How many Liberal front benches have announced they are retiring? How does this compare to previous elections?
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Old 21st February 2019, 04:29 PM   #790
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Came back from Question time. Labor used that phrase to ask several questions. They were dodged. The Liberals are still attacking the Labor party more than boasting about their achievements. Remember the Labor party lost Government over five years ago. The best the Government can do is boast about how great the economy is. Except part time employment is at a very high level. About a third of the workforce.
Remember that 1hr/week counts as "employed".
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Old 21st February 2019, 05:45 PM   #791
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Remember that 1hr/week counts as "employed".

So do over 55's doing a minimum of 15 hours a week voluntary work. They still get unemployment benefits but are not classified as unemployed.


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Old 21st February 2019, 06:42 PM   #792
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Originally Posted by fromdownunder View Post
So do over 55's doing a minimum of 15 hours a week voluntary work. They still get unemployment benefits but are not classified as unemployed.
How do they actually measure that work? Do the oldies have to submit a timesheet or something? What if they just did the voluntary work, never told anyone, and continued to collect their pension as though they were just a'rockin' on the porch all day.
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Old 21st February 2019, 06:53 PM   #793
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
How do they actually measure that work? Do the oldies have to submit a timesheet or something? What if they just did the voluntary work, never told anyone, and continued to collect their pension as though they were just a'rockin' on the porch all day.
I think you'll need to wait for three and a half hours on the phone to Centrelink to get the answer to that question.
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Old 21st February 2019, 07:02 PM   #794
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
I think you'll need to wait for three and a half hours on the phone to Centrelink to get the answer to that question.
I can grok that. Fortunately there is an office nearby my work which I can walk into and wait only 10 minutes to talk to a real person. How special is that!
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Old 21st February 2019, 07:51 PM   #795
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
How do they actually measure that work? Do the oldies have to submit a timesheet or something? What if they just did the voluntary work, never told anyone, and continued to collect their pension as though they were just a'rockin' on the porch all day.

The voluntary work is done in lieu of having to look for and submit evidence for efforts to find paid work (three job applications per fortnight to be submitted to Centrelink to claim Newstart?). It also eliminates any regular Centrelink contact, interviews and reports. Just resubmit once per year signed by the employer. The work must be at an approved organisation and Centrelink may audit the claimant at any time through their workplace (Hello, this is Centrelink. Does Joe Public work 15 hours per week for you?.


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Old 21st February 2019, 07:53 PM   #796
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Remember that 1hr/week counts as "employed".
Yeah, every country in the world reports employment statisitics by the ILO convention, shock horror.

https://www.ilo.org/global/statistic...--en/index.htm
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Old 21st February 2019, 09:10 PM   #797
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Yeah, every country in the world reports employment statisitics by the ILO convention, shock horror.

https://www.ilo.org/global/statistic...--en/index.htm
Well that's dumb. But consistent, I guess.
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Old 21st February 2019, 10:49 PM   #798
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Remember that 1hr/week counts as "employed".
Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Yeah, every country in the world reports employment statisitics by the ILO convention, shock horror.

https://www.ilo.org/global/statistic...--en/index.htm
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Well that's dumb. But consistent, I guess.
You need to put a line between employed and not employed. I fail to see why it should matter where that line is, as long as it stays the same. You then need to look at other measures as well. No one figure will give you the whole picture. What I think is a good measure is how many hours in total everyone works. Then you need to also consider the participation rate and the population size. The later is important so if a PM (or anyone else) claims that so many people found jobs over a certain time period a certain % of that number would be due to population increase.
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Old 21st February 2019, 11:04 PM   #799
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My apologies arthwollipot, that came over much nastier than I intended.

As someone who used to publish labour market statistics, it was somewhat frustrating to see journalists pushing a single figure, and then pretending that figure was some kind of conspiracy to hide unemployment.

In reality, a lot of other statistics are published at the same time, including casual hours, under-employment, labour market participation rates etc.
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Old 21st February 2019, 11:13 PM   #800
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
My apologies arthwollipot, that came over much nastier than I intended.

As someone who used to publish labour market statistics, it was somewhat frustrating to see journalists pushing a single figure, and then pretending that figure was some kind of conspiracy to hide unemployment.

In reality, a lot of other statistics are published at the same time, including casual hours, under-employment, labour market participation rates etc.
It's cool. It's a good thing to know.
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