ISF Logo   IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags China-Korea relations , N-S Korea relations , North Korea incidents , South Korea incidents , US-North Korea relations

Reply
Old 20th May 2010, 11:23 PM   #41
Caustic Logic
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,494
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic
...
:
Here comes the Tinfoil Brigade...
Sherlock Holmes dude is genius.

I was pretty much kidding, but all I'm really saying is don't leap to conclusions with something this big. Okay, you can, but world leaders hopefully won't. Thank god we don't have a Lyndon Johnsoon in the White House. (one hopes).

This is something I'll need to study a little as far as what people know and say they know and how. It really might be as simple as Kim deciding in his pea brain it's time to escalate, perhaps miscalculating a bit. If so it'd need to be dealt with. Can't have miscalculations like that killing people and making the seas or the land unliveable.

But I'm not so sure. I always ask "why?"

Oh, then I remember North Korea is in the Axis of Evil, which means we don't even need to think about why hey do things. It's just evil - it don't have to make sense.

I'm torn somewhere between rebelling against that government propaganda line and rebelling against that rebellion, and not informed enough, so don't get too hung up on my opinion.

Last edited by Caustic Logic; 20th May 2010 at 11:25 PM.
Caustic Logic is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 06:17 AM   #42
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,009
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
I was pretty much kidding, but all I'm really saying is don't leap to conclusions with something this big. Okay, you can, but world leaders hopefully won't. Thank god we don't have a Lyndon Johnsoon in the White House. (one hopes).
Now, Mr Caustic Logic, I am assuming you are saying this because you are referring to the Gulf of Tonkin incident.

I surmise this because you are a conspiracy theorist and like to rely on conspiracy theories to form your understanding of the way the world works.

What you have involuntarily done is shown a historical blindspot in bringing up Lyndon Johnson given that a much, much better parallel would be the USS Pueblo:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Pueblo_(AGER-2)
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 06:50 AM   #43
Polaris
Penultimate Amazing
 
Polaris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,284
Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
whatever.
Nice. Snappy comeback. But please, be my guest and continue tossing scraps under that bridge abutment.

Originally Posted by BenBurch View Post
Its a lose-lose scenario;

1. Do nothing and you encourage more of the same.
2. Attack and China gets all medieval on your ass.

Best course of action is to wait until the North starts the war; Then China cannot object if you finish them. China does not want to rock the boat because they know that the North is probably as likely to attack THEM as SK - they have no illusions as to the mental stability of Kim.
North Korea sank a South Korean ship with a torpedo! How would that not be starting a war? Remember that in 1950 the North started the war also, and China objected (to the tune of 750,000 experienced infantrymen) when the UN moved to finish them. The best we can hope from China is if a shooting war starts, they stay out of it militarily this time.
__________________
"There's vastly more truth to be found in rocks than in holy books. Rocks are far superior, in fact, because you can DEMONSTRATE the truth found in rocks. Plus, they're pretty. Holy books are just heavy." - Dinwar

"Let your ears hear this beautiful song that's hiding underneath the sound," Ed Kowalczyk.
Polaris is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 07:55 AM   #44
Skeptic Guy
Raccoon Death Squad Leader
 
Skeptic Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 6,990
Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus View Post
But that would be post-invasion, when NK had been opened up to the real world. A war with the US or SK is what the people have been told they have been preparing for since the 1950's, and given what one of my reporter friends (who has been to North Korea) says about the people, they would fight to the death with anything, clubs, piano cords, chair legs.

He told me a fascinating story about what happened when he was over there. There was a fire in a train station, and two men ran back into the flames to rescue pictures of Kim-Ill Sung and Kim Jong-Il (Which are up on train doors, as well as No Motherland without you being pumped out of speakers). They died in the fire.

They aren't sitting waiting for liberation, is what I think I'm saying.
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
Sherlock Holmes dude is genius.

I was pretty much kidding, but all I'm really saying is don't leap to conclusions with something this big. Okay, you can, but world leaders hopefully won't. Thank god we don't have a Lyndon Johnsoon in the White House. (one hopes).

This is something I'll need to study a little as far as what people know and say they know and how. It really might be as simple as Kim deciding in his pea brain it's time to escalate, perhaps miscalculating a bit. If so it'd need to be dealt with. Can't have miscalculations like that killing people and making the seas or the land unliveable.

But I'm not so sure. I always ask "why?"

Oh, then I remember North Korea is in the Axis of Evil, which means we don't even need to think about why hey do things. It's just evil - it don't have to make sense.

I'm torn somewhere between rebelling against that government propaganda line and rebelling against that rebellion, and not informed enough, so don't get too hung up on my opinion.
Which "government propaganda line"? That of the US, South Korea, Australia, UK, Sweden? Which one is putting it over on us?
__________________
"Our history is in part a battle to the death of inadequate myths" - Carl Sagan

Even Mother TeresaWP doubted.
Skeptic Guy is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 07:59 AM   #45
Pardalis
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 25,817
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
I'm torn somewhere between rebelling against that government propaganda line and rebelling against that rebellion
A rebel without a cause.
Pardalis is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 09:05 AM   #46
Puppycow
Penultimate Amazing
 
Puppycow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 22,830
Originally Posted by BenBurch View Post
Best course of action is to wait until the North starts the war
Then we should gird our loins. We need to assume that this is a high-probability eventuality and make appropriate preparations.

We need two things as I see it:

1) missile defense.
2) capability to destroy their strategic offensive capability on hair trigger (bunker busters if that's what it takes).
__________________
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
Puppycow is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 09:55 AM   #47
Thunder
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,918
if North Korea attacks South Korea....it will all be over in 10 minutes.

the real question is...do the leaders of NK feel desperate enough, and that they have soo little to lose, that they would indeed start a war they are sure to suffer defeat in?

perhaps.

Last edited by Thunder; 21st May 2010 at 09:57 AM.
Thunder is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 10:23 AM   #48
Darth Rotor
Salted Sith Cynic
 
Darth Rotor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 38,517
Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
if North Korea attacks South Korea....it will all be over in 10 minutes.
Nope.
__________________
Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission.
"Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis
Darth Rotor is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 10:31 AM   #49
Undesired Walrus
Penultimate Amazing
 
Undesired Walrus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,688
I still refuse to believe the North wants war, and because of this I'm amazed to hear of their alleged attack on a SK Korea sub.

There may be a reply that the leaders are utterly insane and should not be held up to the same standards as rational people, but I don't accept this. Kim Il-Sung, and the subsequent leaders of North Korea who followed him, are perhaps the greatest propagandists of all time. Idiots I don't believe, which is why I don't accept the fact that they would walk headlong into their own destruction, and more importantly, the destruction of their own regime.
__________________
Man's material discoveries have outpaced his moral progress. - Clement Attlee, 1945
Undesired Walrus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 10:52 AM   #50
BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
 
BenBurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 37,535
Originally Posted by Darth Rotor View Post
Nope.
I don't think people know how bloody this thing is going to be. It will be brutal. And long.
__________________
For what doth it profit a man, to fix one bug, but crash the system?
BenBurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 10:59 AM   #51
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,573
Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus View Post
I still refuse to believe the North wants war, and because of this I'm amazed to hear of their alleged attack on a SK Korea sub.
It doesn't, but it wants a state of near war, so they can unite their people against the enemy of Oceania ... I mean US and it's allies.

Why can't they just lie to their people and claim of an imminent invasion without any pretext is beyond me, but alas, their leadership probably knows more about the situation than I do.

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:00 AM   #52
Thunder
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,918
Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus View Post
I still refuse to believe the North wants war, and because of this I'm amazed to hear of their alleged attack on a SK Korea sub.
you are attempting to apply rational understanding...to possibly very irrational people.
Thunder is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:15 AM   #53
Undesired Walrus
Penultimate Amazing
 
Undesired Walrus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,688
Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
you are attempting to apply rational understanding...to possibly very irrational people.
This is precisely what I talked about in the second paragraph.
__________________
Man's material discoveries have outpaced his moral progress. - Clement Attlee, 1945
Undesired Walrus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:16 AM   #54
Thunder
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 34,918
i am curious as to what evidence NK has provided in their defense.

none? not surprising.
Thunder is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:19 AM   #55
Giz
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 8,252
Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
if North Korea attacks South Korea....it will all be over in 10 minutes.

the real question is...do the leaders of NK feel desperate enough, and that they have soo little to lose, that they would indeed start a war they are sure to suffer defeat in?

perhaps.
It might seem crazy for the North to push it so far… but then looking back it seems crazy that Saddam didn't just say; "come on in, look all you want for WMDs, look anywhere you want, without hinderence and here's all the records of what happened to the old programs". But sometimes dictators do funny things.

My theory is that a horribly murderous dictator is surrounded by people who want to please him, rather than spell out unpleasent facts (shooting the bearer of bad tidings might not be a mere figure of speech in some parts of the world). Problem is, as soon as you are being told what you want to hear instead of what you need to hear then your decision making goes to hell. Even if a dictator starts out savvy and level headed, after several decades of isolation and sycophancy they are probably no longer responding to events totally logically.

(Add to the mix that North Korea has made a habit of extracting concessions through threats and belligerence but falling short of a self destructive war… that's a tough tightrope for even the most rational decision maker to traverse)
Giz is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:19 AM   #56
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 41,819
Originally Posted by BenBurch View Post
I don't think people know how bloody this thing is going to be. It will be brutal. And long.
Remember the last Korean War.
What is scary is that North Korea seems to be pushing it a bit farther each time, and sooner or later they will push it too far where some kind of military response will be the only choice that SK has other then total humliation.It will almost certainly be a limited response..let's say the sinking of a NK warship in retaliation for the sinking of a SK warship...but NK might go totally bonkers over it and launch a full scale attack over the DMZ.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:21 AM   #57
dudalb
Penultimate Amazing
 
dudalb's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sacramento
Posts: 41,819
Originally Posted by Giz View Post
It might seem crazy for the North to push it so far… but then looking back it seems crazy that Saddam didn't just say; "come on in, look all you want for WMDs, look anywhere you want, without hinderence and here's all the records of what happened to the old programs". But sometimes dictators do funny things.

My theory is that a horribly murderous dictator is surrounded by people who want to please him, rather than spell out unpleasent facts (shooting the bearer of bad tidings might not be a mere figure of speech in some parts of the world). Problem is, as soon as you are being told what you want to hear instead of what you need to hear then your decision making goes to hell. Even if a dictator starts out savvy and level headed, after several decades of isolation and sycophancy they are probably no longer responding to events totally logically.

(Add to the mix that North Korea has made a habit of extracting concessions through threats and belligerence but falling short of a self destructive war… that's a tough tightrope for even the most rational decision maker to traverse)
A lot of wars get started because a country has sucess in using belligerance to get what it wants, but eventually they miscalculate and push the other country too far.
dudalb is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:24 AM   #58
Darth Rotor
Salted Sith Cynic
 
Darth Rotor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 38,517
Originally Posted by BenBurch View Post
I don't think people know how bloody this thing is going to be. It will be brutal. And long.
Yep.

A lot of people don't understand tube artillery, nor what is meant by "the battle of the first salvo" as Kagan uses it. (Price of Admiralty). My only question, that the MI guys used to bicker over, was the maintenance and readiness rates assessed North of the DMZ.

The NK may be the bad guys, but I don't think they are stupid.

No, they are not stupid, when I consider how good the are with tunnels.

DR
__________________
Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission.
"Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis
Darth Rotor is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 01:14 PM   #59
Caustic Logic
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,494
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic
I was pretty much kidding, but all I'm really saying is don't leap to conclusions with something this big. Okay, you can, but world leaders hopefully won't. Thank god we don't have a Lyndon Johnsoon in the White House. (one hopes).
Now, Mr Caustic Logic, I am assuming you are saying this because you are referring to the Gulf of Tonkin incident.

I surmise this because you are a conspiracy theorist and like to rely on conspiracy theories to form your understanding of the way the world works.

What you have involuntarily done is shown a historical blindspot in bringing up Lyndon Johnson given that a much, much better parallel would be the USS Pueblo:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Pueblo_(AGER-2)
As it so happens and as you know from elsewhere, I do weave well into CT thinking (right-brain connections) as well as to rational thinking and work the two together. I still find that it works for me.

But one needn't be a tinfoil nutter to realize that LBJ made (at best) an honest but serious mistake escalating the Vietnam war based on the vague and confusing reports he got from the Maddox and Turner Joy. Don't you agree, Angrysoba, that that kind of eagerness for war could get us in even bigger trouble now?

USS Pueblo is a better parallel how? Because it was off North Korea is all I can see that's very similar. Except setting up a comparison where we didn't fight hard enough and stand up to the evil NKs and should make up for it now.

I'll say on the surface it really does look like a NK attack, and more than likely it is. But it's just important enough I think a second look is worthwhile (in the "CT" thread). Here we should ignore any question of the cause and discuss things like response.

But then that does rely on knowing what happened (or having a reeeeaaaaalllly good guess).

With LBJ and a different war, he had bombs falling within hours of the incident, so he could say it was so in time for the evening news. Ten minutes of solid double-checking would have left any reasonable person at least doubtful enough to hold off. Might have saved us and a couple million Vietnamese a lot of trouble.
Caustic Logic is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 01:17 PM   #60
Darth Rotor
Salted Sith Cynic
 
Darth Rotor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 38,517
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
As it so happens and as you know from elsewhere, I do weave well into CT thinking (right-brain connections) as well as to rational thinking and work the two together. I still find that it works for me.

But one needn't be a tinfoil nutter to realize that LBJ made (at best) an honest but serious mistake escalating the Vietnam war based on the vague and confusing reports he got from the Maddox and Turner Joy. Don't you agree, Angrysoba, that that kind of eagerness for war could get us in even bigger trouble now?
WHAT eagerness for war? When you make stuff up, it's hard to take your posts seriously.
Quote:
USS Pueblo is a better parallel how? Because it was off North Korea is all I can see that's very similar.
Amazing case of myopia we have here. The North Koreans do a think called "probing" and take calculated risks with provocations, somewhat like internet trolling with people dying. Their intent is generally political. Sometimes, the audience for their actions is internal.
Quote:
I'll say on the surface it really does look like a NK attack, and more than likely it is.
Good. But the attack happened below the surface.
Quote:
With LBJ and a different war, he had bombs falling within hours of the incident, so he could say it was so in time for the evening news. Ten minutes of solid double-checking would have left any reasonable person at least doubtful enough to hold off. Might have saved us and a couple million Vietnamese a lot of trouble.
That's one version of history. As counterfactuals go, you might want to try again.

DR
__________________
Helicopters don't so much fly as beat the air into submission.
"Jesus wept, but did He laugh?"--F.H. Buckley____"There is one thing that was too great for God to show us when He walked upon our earth ... His mirth." --Chesterton__"If the barbarian in us is excised, so is our humanity."--D'rok__ "I only use my gun whenever kindness fails."-- Robert Earl Keen__"Sturgeon spares none.". -- The Marquis

Last edited by Darth Rotor; 21st May 2010 at 01:19 PM.
Darth Rotor is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 01:20 PM   #61
Caustic Logic
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,494
scenarios that involve no outside involvement:

NK attack ordered by Kim Jong Il with full intent
The motive: start a war?
Best response: start a war?
A lower level but official military decision
A rogue extremist captain with "eccentricities" fired the missile
Why no extremely public trial and execution?
A bizarre accident
quite bizarre
Any others?
Caustic Logic is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 01:30 PM   #62
Caustic Logic
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,494
Originally Posted by Darth Rotor View Post
WHAT eagerness for war? When you make stuff up, it's hard to take your posts seriously.
http://12-7-9-11.blogspot.com/2009/0...nts-haste.html
If you can read that and believe LBJ was not eager for war, please explain.

Quote:
Amazing case of myopia we have here. The North Koreans do a think called "probing" and take calculated risks with provocations, somewhat like internet trolling with people dying. Their intent is generally political. Sometimes, the audience for their actions is internal.
Mild Myopia. Okay, there's more to the comparison.

And I'm gonna have to look up what trolling is again, cause I've been getting accused of that lately.

Quote:
Good. But the attack happened below the surface.
That's a submersible point - it works on different levels.

Quote:
That's one version of history. As counterfactuals go, you might want to try again.

DR
Again, refer to the first link and the basics of what actually happened to those ships. Consider the war NOT being escalated until there was hard evidence of a DRV attack. When would it have escalated?
Caustic Logic is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 01:42 PM   #63
NoZed Avenger
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 11,286
Originally Posted by BenBurch View Post
Best course of action is to wait until the North starts the war; Then China cannot object if you finish them.
I see a couple of potential problems:

(1) "start[ing] the war" by the North most likely means holy hell raining down on Seoul, killing thousands upon thousands of people. At the very least, artillery and rockets - at worst, a nuke.

(2) "China cannot object. . . . " Can I get that in writing?
NoZed Avenger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 02:38 PM   #64
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 19,473
Originally Posted by Thunder View Post
if North Korea attacks South Korea....it will all be over in 10 minutes.

the real question is...do the leaders of NK feel desperate enough, and that they have soo little to lose, that they would indeed start a war they are sure to suffer defeat in?

perhaps.
Originally Posted by Darth Rotor View Post
Nope.
Indeed. It would be messy:

This link is from 2005 but:

Quote:
Without moving any of its more than 12,000 artillery pieces, "Pyongyang could sustain up to 500,000 rounds per hour against Combined Forces Command defenses and Seoul for several hours" Gen. Thomas A. Schwartz said in testimony in March 2001 before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Schwartz heads the United Nations and ROK-US Combined Forces Commands and US Forces Korea.
What damage would that do to the South Korean economy, and the world economy?
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 03:53 PM   #65
ARubberChickenWithAPulley
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,150
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
scenarios that involve no outside involvement:

NK attack ordered by Kim Jong Il with full intent
The motive: start a war?
Best response: start a war?
A scenario I could easily see happening is this: nK leadership orders an attack to "punish" the South. In their standard fashion, they expect to cause some damage, maybe even kill a few people, and have the south Korean ship limp back to port. The KCNA releases its standard explanation: they were responding to southern aggression, the south Korean ship violated its territorial waters, etc. In this case, however, they drastically underestimated how much damage the torpedo strike would cause on the Cheonan. When they realized they didn't just damage the ship, but sunk it -- and killed 46 South Koreans in the process -- they have an "oh crap" moment and decide to distance themselves from it.

north Korea regularly uses brinkmanship as a strategy to get attention. It's good at it. Unfortunately, there are risks with that strategy: namely, that things can go far beyond their intent and backfire.
ARubberChickenWithAPulley is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 08:19 PM   #66
BenBurch
Gatekeeper of The Left
 
BenBurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: The Universe 35.2 ms ahead of this one.
Posts: 37,535
I met a Pueblo survivor in the San Diego airport about 6 years ago. They were having a reunion. I told him I would be honored if I could shake his hand.
__________________
For what doth it profit a man, to fix one bug, but crash the system?
BenBurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 08:32 PM   #67
roger
Penultimate Amazing
 
roger's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Posts: 11,465
Originally Posted by Undesired Walrus View Post
Yes, I believe they filmed the destruction of a notable weapons plant a few years ago in exchange for supplies. Can't remember if it was nuclear.
A large proportion of the factories sit empty, because many of the workers died from starvation, and the ones left were too weak to work. I did see that you said 'notable' - does that mean it was actually productive at the time of the destruction?
__________________
May your trails be crooked, winding, lonesome, dangerous, leading to the most amazing view. May your mountains rise into and above the clouds. - Edward Abbey

Climb the mountains and get their good tidings.
Nature's peace will flow into you as sunshine flows into trees. The winds will blow their own freshness into you, and the storms their energy, while cares will drop off like autumn leaves. - John Muir
roger is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 09:03 PM   #68
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,009
Originally Posted by roger View Post
A large proportion of the factories sit empty, because many of the workers died from starvation, and the ones left were too weak to work. I did see that you said 'notable' - does that mean it was actually productive at the time of the destruction?
They blew up the Yongbyon nuclear reactor's cooling tower in 2008. I think this is what Undesired Walrus is saying.

The blowing up of it was to get them taken off the "state-sponsors of terrorism list". I believe they had first been put on the list after they were found responsible for destroying a Korean civilian airliner in 1987.

But, it obviously cannot be seen as a demonstration of them destroying any weapons programme as they (and certain apologists) may like to claim as they detonated a nuclear weapon in May 2009.

This was after their so-called "satellite launch" was condemned as an obvious test of a long-range missile in April of that year. (Actually, it is possible that they did attempt to launch a satellite although that doesn't mean they weren't testing their missile technology).

Anyway, for those saying, "Why on Earth would North Korea be so provocative? What do they have to gain from blowing things up or shooting at South Korean naval vessels?" the answer is that it has been a fairly successful tactic for the regime.

Previous provocations have all ended with what can be seen domestically in North Korea as either supplication or bellicose threats by outsiders.

Consider:

a) South Korea, Japan and the US denounce North Korea in the UN and shake their fist at North Korea.

North Korea informs its people that yet again the Yankee Imperialist aggressors and their Running Dog allies are threatening to plunge the Korean peninsula into war which means a redoubling of commitment to the Songun policy of Army first and the regrettable corrolary of making sacrifices for the Juche-oriented philosophy.

b) South Korea, Japan and the US think they have to defuse this potential flashpoint and agree to negotiations with North Korea to see what the bloody Hell they want this time.

North Korea tells its people that Great Leader (he has finally got himself referred to as that these days) Kim Jong-il has tamed the brazen-faced Yankee Imperialist Aggressors and their treachorous Running Dog allies who cower in fear at the devestating blows the Democratic People's Republic of Korea would rain down on them in the event the Bellicose Imperialists attempt to start a war again.

****************************

Either way the DPRK leadership expects to win and in almost all cases whatever behaviour the DPRK exhibit it is worth noting how they will attempt to use it domestically as this seems, more than anything else, what they are concerned with. I don't think the leadership of the DPRK hold out any realistic hope of unifying with South Korea given that for them it would necessarily have to be under their leadership which will never be accepted in the South.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st May 2010, 11:42 PM   #69
Caustic Logic
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,494
Originally Posted by ARubberChickenWithAPulley View Post
A scenario I could easily see happening is this: nK leadership orders an attack to "punish" the South. In their standard fashion, they expect to cause some damage, maybe even kill a few people, and have the south Korean ship limp back to port. The KCNA releases its standard explanation: they were responding to southern aggression, the south Korean ship violated its territorial waters, etc. In this case, however, they drastically underestimated how much damage the torpedo strike would cause on the Cheonan. When they realized they didn't just damage the ship, but sunk it -- and killed 46 South Koreans in the process -- they have an "oh crap" moment and decide to distance themselves from it.

north Korea regularly uses brinkmanship as a strategy to get attention. It's good at it. Unfortunately, there are risks with that strategy: namely, that things can go far beyond their intent and backfire.
I like that as an explanation. It allows for real-world pragmatism AND Kimian aggressiveness. Cause evenif they started cartoonishly evil, after all this time Pyongyang would have picked up SOME measure of restraint and reason. But you never forget who you really are.

What's happening is not in their interest, but they had to know they'd get caught shooting in shallow waters, so I'd guess they didn't intend to get caught doing what happened. That is, they didn't intend to do quite what happened. It's an appealing bridge...

And considering that recent episode where a NK ship was shot over the line - maybe they meant to insist this ship was over the line when hit and send it 'limping' home with a few dead in return. Can't argue that if it sinks where it's hit. Oops.
Caustic Logic is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 03:02 AM   #70
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,009
Well, North Korea responded with this comment. I think it's not far off what I predicted they would say:

Quote:
Pyongyang, May 21 (KCNA) -- A spokesman for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK) issued a statement on Friday assailing the south Korean puppet forces for releasing extremely provocative "results of the investigation" into the sinking of a warship of the south Korean puppet navy in a bid to hurl mud at the north.

The statement noted that the publication of the above-said "results of the investigation" is another extremely ridiculous charade staged by the puppet group in a bid to hurt the dignity of the DPRK, steadily tighten the "sanctions" against it, harm and suffocate it in conspiracy with its U.S. and Japanese masters, much upset by the might of the Republic advancing by leaps and bounds toward a thriving nation.


The Lee Myung Bak group, while working with bloodshot eyes to escalate confrontation with fellow countrymen, drew the conclusion from the day the case occurred that the warship was "sunken by the north" and has since conducted intensive investigation on its basis to hatch a plot, the statement said, and went on:


In the course of nearly two month-long investigation the puppet group fabricated what it called "circumstantial evidence" with conjecture, supposition and random guess. It just produced fragments and pieces of aluminum whose origin remains unknown as "evidence," becoming the target of derision.


Greatly irony is that it deliberately linked the case with the north, talking about the results of the analysis of composition of the unidentified "evidence" without any marking and its size and type.


This is nothing but a shameful deed of those keen on escalating the confrontation with the north.


The Lee group's assertion that the above-said case is linked with the north is the last-ditch effort of those who face destruction as it is a premeditated and deliberate plot to tide over a serious crisis created due to the total failure of its domestic and foreign policies and smoothly stage the "elections to the local self-governing bodies" in a bid to maintain the fascist rule and bring the inter-Korean relations to a collapse.


The puppet forces are now kicking up such fuss as creating atmosphere reminiscent of a wartime situation in south Korea, blustering they would not "rule out a war" and crying out for "counter-measures", urgently evacuating the personnel, equipment and materials of the south side from the areas of the north side and issuing top secret order for taking steps for personal safety and making preparations for withdrawal.


This racket reminding one of an eve of a war goes to prove that the group's recent publication of the "results of investigation" was not a mere clarification of the sinking of the warship but a carefully calculated provocation to seek a pretext for igniting a war of aggression against the north together with outside forces.


The puppet group has created such grave situation on the Korean Peninsula that a war may break out right now.


Pursuant to the statement issued by a spokesman for the National Defence Commission, the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea solemnly declares as follows, speaking for the DPRK government authorities:


Firstly, from now on the DPRK will regard the present situation as the phase of a war and decisively handle all matters arising in the inter-Korean relations to cope with it.


Secondly, in case the puppet group opts for "counter-action" and "retaliation" under the pretext of the sinking of the warship, the DPRK will strongly react to them with such merciless punishment as the total freeze of the inter-Korean relations, the complete abrogation of the north-south agreement on non-aggression and a total halt to the inter-Korean cooperation undertakings.


The DPRK will never pardon anyone hurting its supreme dignity and doing harm to it, warned the statement.
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

Last edited by angrysoba; 22nd May 2010 at 03:03 AM.
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 11:29 AM   #71
Caustic Logic
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 4,494
Angrysoba, I meant to say I liked your long analysis thing and now that I see their PR, it is pretty close. They could stand less hyperbole and more useful specifics, if they have them.

The new report is provocative. War should not be ruled out, completely. A further neutral look at the evidence might help as well. A panel involving Americans AND some North Koreans who can present counter-evidence and some others to judge things. Is that crazy?

How swiftly does anyone here feel the retaliation must be done? If Pyongyand isn't toppled within, what, a month, a year, of this finding, then what might happen?

I'll check back tomorrow. Today is booked.
Caustic Logic is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 11:54 AM   #72
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 19,473
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
Angrysoba, I meant to say I liked your long analysis thing and now that I see their PR, it is pretty close. They could stand less hyperbole and more useful specifics, if they have them.

The new report is provocative. War should not be ruled out, completely. A further neutral look at the evidence might help as well. A panel involving Americans AND some North Koreans who can present counter-evidence and some others to judge things. Is that crazy?

How swiftly does anyone here feel the retaliation must be done? If Pyongyand isn't toppled within, what, a month, a year, of this finding, then what might happen?

I'll check back tomorrow. Today is booked.
I doubt this will topple Pyongyang as a war isn't in really in anyone's interest - one of the links I considered posting stated that US and ROK experts estimate 200,000 Southern and allied casualties in the first day of a shooting war.


The highlighted bit isn't crazy, but isn't going to happen. Why should the DPRK want to take part? They aren't interested in getting at the truth, they do have a small interest in discrediting any investigation as that might affect what the US and ROK would feel is diplomatically possible.
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 12:17 PM   #73
ARubberChickenWithAPulley
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,150
Originally Posted by Caustic Logic View Post
The new report is provocative. War should not be ruled out, completely. A further neutral look at the evidence might help as well. A panel involving Americans AND some North Koreans who can present counter-evidence and some others to judge things. Is that crazy?
That news report isn't really any more provocative than most of what the KCNA puts out. Putting it in context of a typical KCNA press release, that one is fairly standard.

Last edited by ARubberChickenWithAPulley; 22nd May 2010 at 12:22 PM.
ARubberChickenWithAPulley is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 12:40 PM   #74
McHrozni
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 10,573
Originally Posted by ARubberChickenWithAPulley View Post
That news report isn't really any more provocative than most of what the KCNA puts out. Putting it in context of a typical KCNA press release, that one is fairly standard.
As a long-standing fan of KCNA's excellent* press releases, I agree. It's a bit longer than usual, but the wording is pretty much run of the mill.

*as in funny

McHrozni
McHrozni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 12:41 PM   #75
Toke
Godless Socialist
 
Toke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Denmark
Posts: 8,170
Originally Posted by WildCat View Post
Denmark, duh. They're just there to humbly serve humanity.
If I thought you meant that, I would call you naive.
__________________
From each according to his ability, to each according to his need. -K. Marx.

Toke is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 06:05 PM   #76
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,009
Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
As a long-standing fan of KCNA's excellent* press releases, I agree. It's a bit longer than usual, but the wording is pretty much run of the mill.

*as in funny

McHrozni
I agree, their press releases are an almost endless source of unintentional humour but every now and again one comes along which is a real masterpiece of self-parody. I think that one was pretty close.


I also agree with jimbob that war is not in anyone's interest. If it should happen Seoul would probably be almost completely be destroyed in the first day or so.

The war wouldn't be over in minutes as a poster said earlier. It would be very long and with possibly massively long-term consequences - a huge refugee problem that needs to be fed and housed by a wrecked economy. Also, the destruction of South Korea's economy, now easily a very much a developed country would send waves around the whole world.

As I was saying before I think the North's reasons for doing this should be considered domestic. North Korea is a "garrison state" in which the glue for its political ideology has been one of shared adversity in the face of those who cynically divide and rule the Korean people (their claim).
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 06:33 PM   #77
geni
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
geni's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 28,185
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
The war wouldn't be over in minutes as a poster said earlier. It would be very long and with possibly massively long-term consequences - a huge refugee problem that needs to be fed and housed by a wrecked economy.
Depends what north korea does. nuclear deployment would likely result in the US settling matters in pretty short order.

If nuclear deployment is avoided the war is still unlikely to be very long. North korean forces are very much tied to the DMZ and with their limited fuel supplies won't be able to move away from it. Now if you are fighting a modern western army that wants to avoid casulties that might not be a massive problem but post the loss of seoul the south is likely to be less concerned about such matters. The korean peninsula isn't the place for maneuver warfare but with the north having such limited mobility the south should be able to win within a reasonable timeframe.
geni is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 22nd May 2010, 06:33 PM   #78
ARubberChickenWithAPulley
Master Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,150
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
As I was saying before I think the North's reasons for doing this should be considered domestic. North Korea is a "garrison state" in which the glue for its political ideology has been one of shared adversity in the face of those who cynically divide and rule the Korean people (their claim).
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/23/wo...3korea.html?hp

This article in the NY Times today agrees with your assessment above. An incident designed to bolster the succession of Kim's son.
ARubberChickenWithAPulley is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2010, 01:01 AM   #79
angrysoba
Philosophile
 
angrysoba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Osaka, Japan
Posts: 24,009
Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
The highlighted bit isn't crazy, but isn't going to happen. Why should the DPRK want to take part? They aren't interested in getting at the truth, they do have a small interest in discrediting any investigation as that might affect what the US and ROK would feel is diplomatically possible.
Well, the DPRK has demanded its own investigators go there but they have been rejected:

http://angrysoba.blogspot.com/2010/0...onvenient.html
__________________
"The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before."

"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
angrysoba is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd May 2010, 02:05 AM   #80
jimbob
Uncritical "thinker"
 
jimbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 19,473
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Well, the DPRK has demanded its own investigators go there but they have been rejected:

http://angrysoba.blogspot.com/2010/0...onvenient.html
Indeed, that would involve the DPRK sending "investigators" into a disputed region.

Probably not a good idea to accede to this "request".
__________________
OECD healthcare spending
Expenditure on healthcare
http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm
link is 2015 data (2013 Data below):
UK 8.5% of GDP of which 83.3% is public expenditure - 7.1% of GDP is public spending
US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
jimbob is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Non-USA & General Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 06:09 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.