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Tags ae911truth

View Poll Results: When will the AE911 petition reach juggernaut strength of 1%?
20 years 2 0.93%
50 years 2 0.93%
Never 79 36.74%
Who cares?….it's retarded anyway..... 132 61.40%
Voters: 215. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 23rd August 2012, 09:07 PM   #321
Scott Sommers
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Scott, I haven't done any systematic (randomized, ...) probing, but my impression is that the AE911T followers are surprisingly old on average. The activists are probably younger.

Average contributions to the online fundraisers via chipin.com are in the $50 region. I obviously have no idea how much money the average listener to Gage's roadshows leaves for DVDs, merchandise and donations.

The college kids of today were 7-12 years old on sep 11th 2001. many of them were probably somewhat shielded from the images by their parents. I'd intuit that they are less emotionally attached to the events.
You're probably right about the age thing. This is why I keep making the distinction between activists and people willing to endorse items on a phone survey. In the last Zolby survey, there were large numbers of Blacks endorsing 9/1Truth items. Have you ever seen a Black man or woman at a 9/11 rally? Have you ever seen a colored CTer for that matter? In fact, conspiracy theory is rampant in the Black community of the USA. But none of these kinds of CTers ever make an appearance on the JREF or even in the public CT communities.

This is important. It points to different origins for these belief sets and a complex relationship between them. Cognitive origins for CT beliefs are very popular on skeptic forums. Do they explain CT or 9/11 Truth beliefs in the wide range of demographic groups in which we find these beliefs? Do activists have much of an impact on CT belief? Or is it carried through society by different types of agents? And most of, for this thread, where is the money to power these beliefs coming from? And what relationship do activists have to this fund raising?
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Old 23rd August 2012, 09:46 PM   #322
Orphia Nay
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Scott, I haven't done any systematic (randomized, ...) probing, but my impression is that the AE911T followers are surprisingly old on average. The activists are probably younger.

Average contributions to the online fundraisers via chipin.com are in the $50 region. I obviously have no idea how much money the average listener to Gage's roadshows leaves for DVDs, merchandise and donations.

The college kids of today were 7-12 years old on sep 11th 2001. many of them were probably somewhat shielded from the images by their parents. I'd intuit that they are less emotionally attached to the events.
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ae911truth.org#

"Statistics Summary for ae911truth.org
"Ae911truth.org's three-month global Alexa traffic rank is 222,129. Compared with internet averages, the site's users tend to be over the age of 45, and they tend to be childless men browsing from home who are not college graduates. Visitors to this site spend approximately 77 seconds on each pageview and a total of three minutes on the site during each visit, and search engines refer approximately 15% of visits to Ae911truth.org. The site is relatively popular among users in the city of Phoenix (where it is ranked #16,275)"

More demographics at the page.

For example:



(Red=Female). When you hover over each column, it tells you more, such as the fact that the lowest income range is over-represented at AE911T, and the highest income range is under-represented.
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Old 6th September 2012, 08:23 AM   #323
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
End of month update!

A) Architects and engineers:
...
Jun 30: 1698
Jul 31: 1702
...

B) Other Supporters:

Jun 30: 14,804
Jul 31: 14,886

82 new signatures in 31 days is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 14.9 years.
...
What's ahead?
...
I'd expect another sad trickle in august, signs of life in september, and near-death in winter.
End of month update! (5 days late, sorry)

A) Architects and engineers:

Jul 31: 1702
Aug 31: 1706

Again just 4 new signers in 31 days, 0.13 per day or 7.75 days between signatures, ties for the second worst showing, making the last three months the three worst ever. 8 of the 11 worst months ever were within the last 10 months. The annual growth rate of 2.8% is equivalent to each existing signer talking one peer into signing once every 35.6 years - the length of a professional career. That is more or less a stall.



B) Other Supporters:

Jul 31: 14,886
Aug 31: 15,070

184 new signatures in 31 days is the best showing since last december, hence the best this year, and more than double the rate compared to last month! It is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 6.4 years.
The annual growth rate of 15.6% is more than five times that of the A&E professionals 2.8%, increasing the trend that amateurs have always been much easier to persuade.


To put this into visuals:



The trend by the way continues very strongly: In the first days of september, the rate has almost doubled again (from 5.9/day to 10.2/day).

I have no explanation at this time why it seems that suddenly AE911T gains more traction among the amateurs, while the A&E professionals continue to ignore the circus.

Keep in mind though that this increase, or changed trend, still pales to the attention gage got in past years. The following graphic shows how new signatures by "Other Supporters" came in every year since day 0 - each line starting at 0 around january 1st:



We see 2012 trailing far far behind 2010 and 2011, and beaten handily by 2008 and 2009. Only in the first year, 2007, which started in May, was Gage less successful in soliciting amateur signatures.



What's ahead?

In most years, the summer months june-august are relatively weak, but september is strong every year, I'd guess coinciding with the 9/11 anniversaries (the month of may was strong only in 2007 and 2008, the february peak may be coincidence).

http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/...wthmonthly.jpg

I'd expect signs of some life in september (even though there has been no A&E signature thus far this month), and near-death in winter.




C) Fundraisers

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Fundraiser #1 National College Outreach
...
Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far: $90
Contributors: 1


Fundraiser #2 Journey for 9/11 Truth
...
Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far: $630 (20%)
Contributors: 3

...
Here are my predictions:
  1. Both fundraisers combined will have raised less than $70/day by october 30; that would be a total of <$4,900
  2. The Bike Ride action (#2) will raise more than the College Outreach (#1), as it has a more personal and emotional appeal (two individuals, females even, doing quite tangible physical work)
  3. Thus # 1. will stay under $2,000 (only ~20% of target) and may get extended by several weeks
  4. #2 has a good chance of rasing up to $3,000, and may reach its target in time
  5. Individual contributions will average less than US$ 48/contributor - again, probably more for #2 than for #1 (the last three had 59, 45 and 52. Implicitly, I expect a combined ~110 contributors)
Fundraiser #1 National College Outreach

Purpose: "Support AE911Truth's ambitious effort this fall to take our message on a college speaking tour – beginning with APCA.com and NACA.org conference and showcases. Critical youth outreach."

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far (Aug 31): $5640.12
Contributors: 16

That's $352,51 per contributor!! Far outpacing previous fundraisers that all averaged between 44 and 106 dollars. Also, 16 contributions in 10 days is pretty good. I have no idea what's going on. I don't follow this day to day, so I could not say if there was, say, one big donation of $5000, or 10 of $500 It looks like there was one super donation of $5000 (see footnote). I had predicted <$2000 by end of october - man, was I wrong.


Fundraiser #2 Journey for 9/11 Truth

Purpose: "Support AE011Truth team leaders Pam Senzee & Rena Petty who have embarked on a 3,000 miles bike journey across the country – passing out DVDs and talking to everyone along the way"

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far: $1430 (20%)
Contributors: 8

That's $179 per contributor. Here, where there are fewer contributions, it seemed like there were two donations of $500 each[1]. So the balance, $430 from 6 donations, averages $72.
I predicted that this fundraiser may reach its target, and it's well on its way.


I think these fundraisers may have been pimped - AE911T perhaps making a donation out of their own funds. But of course I can't prove this allegation.




[1] I have so far recorded for the bike tour:
DateContributors$ raised
Aug 223630
ca. Aug 2551230
Aug 3181430
Now?91455
The first line could be 500+100+30
The second could be +500+100
The third maybe +100+50+50
The fourth is +25
(I am unsure if the last line is really current; I have a cache issue with displaying that fundraiser, which is a flash object. It loads on the AE911 homepage, which I reload every day, but it only sometimes refreshes the flash content, so what I see now could be outdated by several days)

ETA:
For National College Outreach I have seen
DateContributors$ raised
Aug 22190
ca. Aug 2595290.12
ca. Aug 30155540.12
Aug 31165640.12
Now?205761.12
So the last contribution in august was $100, and the four since averaged just $30. The six donations before the last in august averaged $42. These are all very ordinary numbers. Donations 2-9 however added $5200, an average of $650, and they came in only three or four days. I kinda suspect that one source donated $5000, while the remaining 15 (or fewer) contributors by the end of august averaged $43, which would be perfectly within expectations.

Last edited by Oystein; 6th September 2012 at 08:37 AM. Reason: ETA, and correction indicated by STRIKE and COLOR green
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Old 8th September 2012, 05:03 AM   #324
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Just a side note:

AE filed a second extension for filing their form 990. This gives them until Nov 15th to disclose their financial records.

They must like to live dangerously. Four extensions in two years is a great big invitation for the IRS to investigate ones accounting practices. It's puzzling that their accountant would do this, their report is actually really straightforward and they're not all that large of an organisation.
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Old 8th September 2012, 11:02 AM   #325
Oystein
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
Just a side note:

AE filed a second extension for filing their form 990. This gives them until Nov 15th to disclose their financial records. ...
How do you know this?
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Old 8th September 2012, 11:27 AM   #326
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
How do you know this?
I got an email from Tania Torres (his office manager) yesterday in response to my request for disclosure. The deadline to file (after an automatic extension is Sept 15th). She was happy to hear from me and will supply my copy of the form once it's filed.
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Old 8th September 2012, 03:41 PM   #327
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IRS? I thought religions didn't have to pay taxes..
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Old 8th September 2012, 04:17 PM   #328
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Ah cool, thanks!

To expand on this:

Lat year, Richard Gage signed the form 990 for 2010 on november 14th - one day before due. I downloaded it from guidestar.org ten days later, so it seems there is little or no delay until it shows up there. It had been prepared by Patrick A McDermott, CPA (Certifoed Public Accountant), who by the way has not signed the petition as Other Supporter.

Tania Torres signed the petiotion ca. december 2008, and has been featured as the responsible person for "Web Implementation" on the "Blueprint Newsletter" imprint since february 2010.
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Old 9th September 2012, 06:30 AM   #329
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Originally Posted by DGM View Post
Just a side note:

AE filed a second extension for filing their form 990. This gives them until Nov 15th to disclose their financial records.

They must like to live dangerously. Four extensions in two years is a great big invitation for the IRS to investigate ones accounting practices. It's puzzling that their accountant would do this, their report is actually really straightforward and they're not all that large of an organisation.
The MAN trying to shut them down because they're getting close to Da Twoof!



Suicide by taxman. How is Gage going to tour the world on the dime of the gullible spread the truth if irregularities show up in their paperwork?
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Old 17th September 2012, 07:46 AM   #330
Oystein
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
End of month update! (5 days late, sorry)

A) Architects and engineers:

Jul 31: 1702
Aug 31: 1706

Again just 4 new signers in 31 days, 0.13 per day or 7.75 days between signatures, ties for the second worst showing, making the last three months the three worst ever. 8 of the 11 worst months ever were within the last 10 months. The annual growth rate of 2.8% is equivalent to each existing signer talking one peer into signing once every 35.6 years - the length of a professional career. That is more or less a stall.



B) Other Supporters:

Jul 31: 14,886
Aug 31: 15,070

184 new signatures in 31 days is the best showing since last december, hence the best this year, and more than double the rate compared to last month! It is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 6.4 years.
The annual growth rate of 15.6% is more than five times that of the A&E professionals 2.8%, increasing the trend that amateurs have always been much easier to persuade.

...

What's ahead?

In most years, the summer months june-august are relatively weak, but september is strong every year, I'd guess coinciding with the 9/11 anniversaries (the month of may was strong only in 2007 and 2008, the february peak may be coincidence).

http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/...wthmonthly.jpg

I'd expect signs of some life in september (even though there has been no A&E signature thus far this month), and near-death in winter.




C) Fundraisers


Fundraiser #1 National College Outreach
...
Raised so far (Aug 31): $5640.12
Contributors: 16
...

Fundraiser #2 Journey for 9/11 Truth
...
Raised so far: $1430 (20%)
Contributors: 8
...
Mid-month update:

The 11th anniversary is just days past, and it saw interest in AE911Truth's lore and petitions peak sharply - and wane again. So today, I am restructuring my fortnightly updates a bit, and start with the traffic their homepage has seen recently:

First, the page hits historically from 2010 until today - data for 2010 until july 2011 from archive.org, then there was a year during which I have no data, then I recorded the first current count on july 31st, and since august 21st I keep score more often - every other day, or, recently, daily. So here is how traffic has developed during the past two and a half years (note again that I have a flat line from aug '11 to jul '12 which represents the average of that full year):



So there seemed to be a slight upward trend in 2010/11, an average of about 7000 daily page hits in 2011/12, a slight dip in the vacation month of august, but so far a sharp rise in september. Going almost day by during the last 4 weeks, we see how that came about:



A trend of increasing traffic since august 23rd, with an extreme peak on 9/11/2012, the anniversary. And then an equally sharp drop (but still comfortably higher than the previous average level).

One would expect this to have an effect on petition development, and indeed, AE911Truth's current popular poll at change.org developed like this since its start back in june:



We see how it dropped sharply days after it was started - as most petitions do - then simmered on a low level of mostly under 10 signatures per day; then activity rose as the click numbers on their homepage increased a few days before the anniversary, exploded on 9/11 to an unprecedented 64 signatures / day during two days (between 9/10 6:33pm and 9/12 9:08pm NYC local time), only to drop immediately again, albeit to above the previous level.



So we would expect the original AE911T Petition to also clock in better numbers than before. Right?
Uhmm well, maybe.
Here's how it looks as of yesterday:

A) Architects and engineers:

Aug 31: 1706
Sep 15: 1708

2 signatures in 15 days is the same low level we have seen in the last months - it's each existing A&E convincing one other once every 35. What this actually means is that the Petition is getting new members at roughly the same rate that old members retire or die. In other words, this is not growth at all!

Keep in mind though that it usually takes Gage's office a couple or three weeks to verify the professional credentials of their signers. So if A&Es became aware of, and taken in by the woo of, Gage's garbage around this year's anniversary and signed, we might not see them before the end of the month or even some time in october. So I actually expect them to get perhaps half a dozend signatures in the coming 2-3 weeks.


B) Other Supporters:

Aug 31: 15,070
Sep 15: 15,285

Whoa - 215 amateurs in 15 days, that's the best rate they had in ages (since jan 2011)!
Note though that the Gage's verification team has an easier time with these: They just read what the amateurs filled out on the form, and if it doesn't look like bogus, it's approved; it typically takes only days to approve "Other Supporters", so this number may already include the bulk of signatures they got because of the anniversary, and I expect the rate to drop somewhat till the end of the month.

Here is a graphic to show how there is a quickly growing gap between A&E professionals and the amateurs:





C) Fundraisers

Fundraiser #1 National College Outreach

Purpose: "Support AE911Truth's ambitious effort this fall to take our message on a college speaking tour – beginning with APCA.com and NACA.org conference and showcases. Critical youth outreach."

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far (Sep 16): $7185 (75%)
Contributors: 31

That's $232 per contributor, $276 per day! However, this result is totally dominated by one early contribution of $5000. Who on FSM's earth would give $5000 of his money to such a mundane purpose??
Take that away, and we are averaging $72.83/contributor and $84.04/day. That's still better than the most recent fundraisers - and the explanation is more unusually high donations. There were single donations of $500 each on 09/07 and 09/13 - still an amazing amount of money in one go. With those off the record, we are down to $42.32/contributor and $45.58/day - those would be prefectly ordinary.

With 35 days to go, we expect them to raise perhaps another $1600 and miss the target by about $800.


Fundraiser #2 Journey for 9/11 Truth

Purpose: "Support AE011Truth team leaders Pam Senzee & Rena Petty who have embarked on a 3,000 miles bike journey across the country – passing out DVDs and talking to everyone along the way"

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far (Sep 16): $1,785 (56%)
Contributors: 19

That's $94 per contributor, but it appears that two of the first five donations were unusually high at $500 each. Since then, there were 14 contributions for a total of $555 in 22 days, or $39.64/contribution, $25.23/day, which are pretty bad values.
Still likely to reach its target in the remaing 44 days.



Retraction

I habe to retract one hypothesis I have been trying to prove by monitoring current fundraisers, namely the notion that these drives will collect less and less money, per day and per contributor, as time goes on.- I went through AE911T's old "Blueprint Newsletters". Many contain links to previous fundraisers, which are all still accessible at chipin.com. So my data base increased from four finished and two open fundraisers to 23 finished and 2 open, going back to spring 2009, which was before AE911Truth peaked. I find that there really is no clear trend. It seems like there is a decreasing trend for the end result (total $ raised) and an increasing trend for their targets, so they seem to miss their targets by growing margins - but looking at $ per contributor or days, there is almost a flat line if I do a linear regression. These trends are very vulnerable to outliers and pimping - and there are a few outliers, and too many fundraisers where the result was so close to the target that I suspect at least some of them must have been massaged when they ended (9 of 23 campaigns ended less than 5% above or below target).
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Old 2nd October 2012, 03:56 AM   #331
Oystein
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End of month / quarter update!

I'll try to keep this brief, as I see indications that Gage's backoffice still had a backlog of unprocessed signatures by the end of september - perhaps on the order of 100, of which the large majority would be "Other Supporters", and only a handful could be architects or engineers.

I had predicted that september would see a notable rise in the number of new signatures over the summer months, as the summer has always been a slow season for Gage, while past septembers, having the anniversary date 9/11, have seen more signatures than any other months.

An I was right:

A) Architects and engineers:

Aug 31: 1706
Sep 30: 1720

14 new signers in 30 days, 0.47 per day, is the best showing since May, the third best so far in 2012, and the fourth best of the last 12 months. It is also more than June-August combined, which had only 10 new A&E in three months. The annual growth rate of 10.5% is equivalent to each existing signer talking one peer into signing once every 9.6 years - far far from viral, but also better than virtually dead.
It is, however, by far their worst september ever!


B) Other Supporters:

Aug 31: 15,070
Sep 30: 15,470

400 new signatures in 30 days, 13.3 per day, is the best number in the past 12 months, and almost the same total as the previous four months combined. I can't say though if it is better or worse than september 2011, as I don't have numbers for september 2011 alone. Aug+sep 2011 combined had 12 signaturers per day, but would expect that august was worse.
The annual growth rate of 37.6% is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 2.7 years - pretty good.

The annual growth rate three and a half times that of the A&E professionals, continuing the trend that amateurs have always been much easier to persuade.


Graphics:

The month-by-month development during the past 12 months:



The rise of those curves this last month looks impressive, but note that the first data points is the average of 12 months from oct 10 to sep 11. So note that even the best months of 2012 for A&E are below the average of past years. Gage is clearly in his worst year ever. In the next two diagrams, compare how individual years developed since 2007 - after peaking in 2009/10, numbers were dramatically down in 2011, and are even more dramatically down this year:






Page hits:

At the end of july I began monitoring the page hits that Gage's homepage displays on its bottom. From the WayBackMachine, figures are available from late january 2010 to late july 2011. After that, I have a gap of one year, for which I can only compute an average.

It interesting to note that, from August 2010 to July 2011, ae911truth.org had 5148 daily page hits on average; from July 2011 to July 2012 that was up to 7042 - and still the number of new signatures dropped greatly in the same intervals (A&E: from 0.77 to 0.49 per day. Other Supporters: from 10.3 to 6.3 per day)

However, August 2012 was down compared to the previous 12 months, while September 2012 was sharply up:



This rise in September is almost entirely due to extremetraffic around the 9/11 anniversary:



And I think this would adequately explain why they get more signatures in september. It appears that all their marketing efforts pale completely in comparison to the interest generated by a thing as simple as a historic date on the calendar.


What's ahead?

Like I said last month already, we will probably see a sharp drop after the september peak, as things return to normal.

But since, as I mentioned at the beginning of this post, their backoffice probably still has to process a number of signatures that came in during september, october might look decent - but november I predict to challange record lows.

Also in november, Gage's IRS statement, form 990 is due, which I expect to show a notable drop in revenues compared to 2010, in keeping with the fading interest in his petition.


C) Fundraisers

Fundraiser #1 National College Outreach

Purpose: "Support AE911Truth's ambitious effort this fall to take our message on a college speaking tour – beginning with APCA.com and NACA.org conference and showcases. Critical youth outreach."

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far (Sep 30): $8,085 (Aug 31: $5640.12)
Contributors: 44 (Aug 31: 16)

28 contributors in September gave $2444.88, that's an average of $87,32 per contributor, $81.50 per day - both values considerably better than what the previous fundraisers in 2012 had. But the numbers are dominated by three individual donations of $500 each - after there had been even a $5,000 donation in august. This puzzles me a bit - who are the domors of such amounts?

With 21 days and $1,515 to go, I expect this drive to stay a bit short of its target, but reaching more than 90%, which would be a success. But with more than half that sum coming from a single donor, I am not sure what that means.


Fundraiser #2 Journey for 9/11 Truth

Purpose: "Support AE011Truth team leaders Pam Senzee & Rena Petty who have embarked on a 3,000 miles bike journey across the country – passing out DVDs and talking to everyone along the way"

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far (Sep 30): $2,280 (Aug 31: $1430)
Contributors: 32 (Aug 31: 8)

$850 from 24 contributors in september is only $35,42 per contributor and $28,33 per day. All contibutions but one ($150) were under $51. There had been one $500-donation in August.

I don't know why this fundraiser doesn't attract the big spenders like the other did. Anyway, at this pace, with 30 day and $920 to go, this campaign is now in danger of missing its modest target, even though it, too, will probably get above 90%.
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Old 3rd October 2012, 08:41 AM   #332
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http://www.911journeyfortruth.org/

Interesting. They are keeping blogs about the cross-country journey. Apparently, they are just passing through Indiana now. Very evangelical:

Quote:
I wondered if I should stay to attend the Methodist Church service in Fletcher Lake or ride on in the morning. I stayed, and I'm glad I did. It was a pleasant service and I enjoyed meeting people. I told the pastor that I’d mail a copy of "Experts Speak Out" to him...I expect that the information is going to be completely new and probably shocking for him. After church, I accepted an invitation to lunch at the home of a couple from church. The AE911Truth information was completely new to them, but as conversation progressed, it was clear that they too were puzzled how the buildings came down as suddenly as they did on 9/11. The conversation then turned to a general distrust that we are being told the truth by government agencies or media on a range of issues. I left a Blueprint for Truth DVD with them to share with the members of the church. I appreciate the hospitality and generosity of the people from the church in Fletcher.
On the bright side, the girls are passing through Amish country, so they can look forward to nice wide shoulders on the roads.

ETA - For technical reasons, I had to make a DVD for work recently. Tech guy asked me "who in the world still uses DVDs?"

Last edited by carlitos; 3rd October 2012 at 08:43 AM.
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Old 5th October 2012, 08:40 PM   #333
Orphia Nay
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
A) Architects and engineers:

Aug 31: 1706
Sep 30: 1720

14 new signers in 30 days, 0.47 per day, is the best showing since May, the third best so far in 2012, and the fourth best of the last 12 months. It is also more than June-August combined, which had only 10 new A&E in three months. The annual growth rate of 10.5% is equivalent to each existing signer talking one peer into signing once every 9.6 years - far far from viral, but also better than virtually dead.
It is, however, by far their worst september ever!
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Old 5th October 2012, 09:26 PM   #334
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Quote:
The annual growth rate of 10.5% is equivalent to each existing signer talking one peer into signing once every 9.6 years...
Not to mention barely keeping up with the expected mortality rate of current members.
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Old 6th October 2012, 08:49 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/ae911truth.org#

"Statistics Summary for ae911truth.org
"Ae911truth.org's three-month global Alexa traffic rank is 222,129. Compared with internet averages, the site's users tend to be over the age of 45, and they tend to be childless men browsing from home who are not college graduates. Visitors to this site spend approximately 77 seconds on each pageview and a total of three minutes on the site during each visit, and search engines refer approximately 15% of visits to Ae911truth.org. The site is relatively popular among users in the city of Phoenix (where it is ranked #16,275)"

More demographics at the page.

For example:



(Red=Female). When you hover over each column, it tells you more, such as the fact that the lowest income range is over-represented at AE911T, and the highest income range is under-represented.
How does Alexa know these things?
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Old 6th October 2012, 09:50 PM   #336
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Good question! I don't know.

Oh, and Red does not equal female. It means under-representation in that demographic.
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Old 8th October 2012, 09:09 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by Lenbrazil View Post
How does Alexa know these things?

Q: Where does Alexa get the traffic data? Alexa gets its traffic data, including reach, page views and rank information, from a global panel of web users. The panel is used as a statistical sample of Internet usage to extrapolate overall traffic patterns and web usage information. The panel consists of Alexa Toolbar users and other sources web usage information. Details about Alexa’s traffic data can be found on Alexa.com. http://aws.amazon.com/awis/faqs/#Whe...e_traffic_data
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Old 9th October 2012, 03:46 PM   #338
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
End of month / quarter update!

I'll try to keep this brief, as I see indications that Gage's backoffice still had a backlog of unprocessed signatures by the end of september - perhaps on the order of 100, of which the large majority would be "Other Supporters", and only a handful could be architects or engineers.

I had predicted that september would see a notable rise in the number of new signatures over the summer months, as the summer has always been a slow season for Gage, while past septembers, having the anniversary date 9/11, have seen more signatures than any other months.

An I was right:

A) Architects and engineers:

Aug 31: 1706
Sep 30: 1720

14 new signers in 30 days, 0.47 per day, is the best showing since May, the third best so far in 2012, and the fourth best of the last 12 months. It is also more than June-August combined, which had only 10 new A&E in three months. The annual growth rate of 10.5% is equivalent to each existing signer talking one peer into signing once every 9.6 years - far far from viral, but also better than virtually dead.
It is, however, by far their worst september ever!


B) Other Supporters:

Aug 31: 15,070
Sep 30: 15,470

400 new signatures in 30 days, 13.3 per day, is the best number in the past 12 months, and almost the same total as the previous four months combined. I can't say though if it is better or worse than september 2011, as I don't have numbers for september 2011 alone. Aug+sep 2011 combined had 12 signaturers per day, but would expect that august was worse.
The annual growth rate of 37.6% is equivalent to each existing signer convincing one new "member" once every 2.7 years - pretty good.

The annual growth rate three and a half times that of the A&E professionals, continuing the trend that amateurs have always been much easier to persuade.


Graphics:

The month-by-month development during the past 12 months:


The rise of those curves this last month looks impressive, but note that the first data points is the average of 12 months from oct 10 to sep 11. So note that even the best months of 2012 for A&E are below the average of past years. Gage is clearly in his worst year ever. In the next two diagrams, compare how individual years developed since 2007 - after peaking in 2009/10, numbers were dramatically down in 2011, and are even more dramatically down this year:





Page hits:

At the end of july I began monitoring the page hits that Gage's homepage displays on its bottom. From the WayBackMachine, figures are available from late january 2010 to late july 2011. After that, I have a gap of one year, for which I can only compute an average.

It interesting to note that, from August 2010 to July 2011, ae911truth.org had 5148 daily page hits on average; from July 2011 to July 2012 that was up to 7042 - and still the number of new signatures dropped greatly in the same intervals (A&E: from 0.77 to 0.49 per day. Other Supporters: from 10.3 to 6.3 per day)

However, August 2012 was down compared to the previous 12 months, while September 2012 was sharply up:


This rise in September is almost entirely due to extremetraffic around the 9/11 anniversary:


And I think this would adequately explain why they get more signatures in september. It appears that all their marketing efforts pale completely in comparison to the interest generated by a thing as simple as a historic date on the calendar.


What's ahead?

Like I said last month already, we will probably see a sharp drop after the september peak, as things return to normal.

But since, as I mentioned at the beginning of this post, their backoffice probably still has to process a number of signatures that came in during september, october might look decent - but november I predict to challange record lows.

Also in november, Gage's IRS statement, form 990 is due, which I expect to show a notable drop in revenues compared to 2010, in keeping with the fading interest in his petition.


C) Fundraisers


Purpose: "Support AE911Truth's ambitious effort this fall to take our message on a college speaking tour – beginning with APCA.com and NACA.org conference and showcases. Critical youth outreach."

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far (Sep 30): $8,085 (Aug 31: $5640.12)
Contributors: 44 (Aug 31: 16)

28 contributors in September gave $2444.88, that's an average of $87,32 per contributor, $81.50 per day - both values considerably better than what the previous fundraisers in 2012 had. But the numbers are dominated by three individual donations of $500 each - after there had been even a $5,000 donation in august. This puzzles me a bit - who are the domors of such amounts?

With 21 days and $1,515 to go, I expect this drive to stay a bit short of its target, but reaching more than 90%, which would be a success. But with more than half that sum coming from a single donor, I am not sure what that means.



Purpose: "Support AE011Truth team leaders Pam Senzee & Rena Petty who have embarked on a 3,000 miles bike journey across the country – passing out DVDs and talking to everyone along the way"

Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far (Sep 30): $2,280 (Aug 31: $1430)
Contributors: 32 (Aug 31: 8)

$850 from 24 contributors in september is only $35,42 per contributor and $28,33 per day. All contibutions but one ($150) were under $51. There had been one $500-donation in August.

I don't know why this fundraiser doesn't attract the big spenders like the other did. Anyway, at this pace, with 30 day and $920 to go, this campaign is now in danger of missing its modest target, even though it, too, will probably get above 90%.
Nice work Oystein. I suspect the general poll is much more succesful than A+E poll because there is no independant review and checking and confirmation of the general poll. And since telling lies seems to be the strength of truth, then I would not be surprised if they make up numbers where they can.

They have some checks on A+E's and I am sure that they are aware that people like you will look at their reports if numbers go up. Well done!

I also dont think death excludes you from being a member of ae911truth. It only counts if the dead person notifies ae911truth that they no longer wish to be a member or if someone complains. I think if you looked at the statistics that you would find almost no-one dies at ae911truth compared to average. And no-one changes their mind. Perhaps joining the truth is the cure to ageing.
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Old 9th October 2012, 04:01 PM   #339
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If any of them did die, it would be suspicious though.
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Old 9th October 2012, 07:28 PM   #340
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Richard,

actually...

...they do check the "general" members (what they call "Other Supporters"), at least superficially. First, your email address is checked; you automatically are sent an email with a confirmation link; and you can't use am address twice. Secondly, they seem to read what people write. So if your name is Mickey Mouse, you live on Plantex X or you actually support the official theory in you personal statement, chances are your signature will be rejected. Only about 60-65% of filled-out petition forms make it to the final list

...they do remove signatures. It happens rarely, and I can't tell you for what reasons it happens, but occasionally a signature is deleted. I suspect this is usually due to the member having reconsidered and actively mailing them. No doubt a notable number of members have died in the 5.5 years since the petition began, without anyone noticing.

All in all, I think they are managing the list quite commendably.
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Old 10th October 2012, 05:17 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post

All in all, I think they are managing the list quite commendably.
What else do they have to do? Besides that, it's their top marketing tool.
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Old 11th October 2012, 12:13 PM   #342
Richard the G
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Richard,

actually...

...they do check the "general" members (what they call "Other Supporters"), at least superficially. First, your email address is checked; you automatically are sent an email with a confirmation link; and you can't use am address twice. Secondly, they seem to read what people write. So if your name is Mickey Mouse, you live on Plantex X or you actually support the official theory in you personal statement, chances are your signature will be rejected. Only about 60-65% of filled-out petition forms make it to the final list

...they do remove signatures. It happens rarely, and I can't tell you for what reasons it happens, but occasionally a signature is deleted. I suspect this is usually due to the member having reconsidered and actively mailing them. No doubt a notable number of members have died in the 5.5 years since the petition began, without anyone noticing.

All in all, I think they are managing the list quite commendably.
Ah ha. So there is some integrity in truth. Interesting concept.
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Old 16th October 2012, 08:51 AM   #343
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Mid-month update:
Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
End of month / quarter update!

I'll try to keep this brief, as I see indications that Gage's backoffice still had a backlog of unprocessed signatures by the end of september - perhaps on the order of 100, of which the large majority would be "Other Supporters", and only a handful could be architects or engineers.
...
A) Architects and engineers:

Aug 31: 1706
Sep 30: 1720
Sep 30: 1720
Oct 16: 1733

13 new in 15.5 days - looks impressive.
But remember the backlog I mentioned: Of these 13, 9 signed up in september but didn't appear on the webpage before october 1st.

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
B) Other Supporters:

Aug 31: 15,070
Sep 30: 15,470

...
The annual growth rate three and a half times that of the A&E professionals, continuing the trend that amateurs have always been much easier to persuade.
Sep 30: 15,470
Oct 16: 15,650

That's 180 new signatures in 15.5 days, but again, remember the backlog they had at the end of september, which they have cleaned by now. About half of these 180 actually already signed up in september, and the other half in october. So while I logged 400 new signatures for september, october is on a pace towards perhaps 270 - and actually, closer to 490 signed up in september, and october so far has only 180/month. In other words: The september 11th anniversary hype is already over.

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Page hits:

It interesting to note that, from August 2010 to July 2011, ae911truth.org had 5148 daily page hits on average; from July 2011 to July 2012 that was up to 7042 - and still the number of new signatures dropped greatly in the same intervals (A&E: from 0.77 to 0.49 per day. Other Supporters: from 10.3 to 6.3 per day)

However, August 2012 was down compared to the previous 12 months, while September 2012 was sharply up:

http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/...s2010-2012.jpg

This rise in September is almost entirely due to extremetraffic around the 9/11 anniversary:

http://i1088.photobucket.com/albums/...itsSep2012.jpg
...
Predictably, after the september mayhem, page hits are again sharply down this month:
Aug 2012 - Jul 2012: 7042 hits/day
Aug 2012: 5306 hits/day
Sep 2012: 10779 hits/day
Oct 2012: 6430 hits/day ()through october 16th, lunch time in Europe)

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
What's ahead?

Like I said last month already, we will probably see a sharp drop after the september peak, as things return to normal.

But since, as I mentioned at the beginning of this post, their backoffice probably still has to process a number of signatures that came in during september, october might look decent - but november I predict to challange record lows.

Also in november, Gage's IRS statement, form 990 is due, which I expect to show a notable drop in revenues compared to 2010, in keeping with the fading interest in his petition.
This still applies.

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
C) Fundraisers

Fundraiser #1 National College Outreach

Purpose: "Support AE911Truth's ambitious effort this fall to take our message on a college speaking tour – beginning with APCA.com and NACA.org conference and showcases. Critical youth outreach."
Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far (October 09): $ 9,600 (Sep 30: $8,085)
Contributors: 52 (Sep 30: 44)
ENDED, on target

8 contributors in September gave $1,515, that's an average of $189.38 per contributor, $168.33 per day - dominated by a single donation of $1,000. Earlier, there had been three individual donations of $500 each, and one early $5,000 donation in august. This puzzles me a bit - who are the domors of such amounts? So 5 of 52 donations added up to $7,500, the other 47 to just $2,100 (under $45 per donation).


Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Fundraiser #2 Journey for 9/11 Truth

Purpose: "Support AE011Truth team leaders Pam Senzee & Rena Petty who have embarked on a 3,000 miles bike journey across the country – passing out DVDs and talking to everyone along the way"
Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far (Oct 16): $3,370 (Sep 30: $2,280) - that's 105% of trarget
Contributors: 38 (Sep 30: 32)

$1090 from 6 contributors in october - these break down as 20, 40 and 60 dollars, and then I saw an increase of 970 with 3 donations. I'd there was one big donation of $900 to reach 100% of target, and 2 smaller ones of perhaps 20 and 50 dollars on top of that. All previous contibutions but two had been under $51. There had been one $500-donation in August, and a $150 one in september. So here, again, two individual donations of $900 and $500 totally dominate an otherwise slow fundraiser.


So far in 2012, such fundraisers (there were five, and the better part of a sixth that began in december '11) raised a total of about $25,900.
In 2011, the total was over $38,000 from the same number of fundraisers. In 2010, the total was over 40,000 from seven and a half campaigns. So this sort of income has a downward trend, though not as dramatically as the signatures.
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Old 16th October 2012, 09:17 AM   #344
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I wonder if al Qaeda donate ?

If they did, would the money be welcome ?
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Old 16th October 2012, 04:02 PM   #345
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I'm not sure of tax law, but perhaps Gage is nearing the crap because he hasn't disclosed his profit from selling his tours, merchandise, dvds etc to the IRS, so he's donating the money back to himself so he can disclose his income as donations?..

Sounds like a conspiracy
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Old 16th October 2012, 05:54 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by cjnewson88 View Post
I'm not sure of tax law, but perhaps Gage is nearing the crap because he hasn't disclosed his profit from selling his tours, merchandise, dvds etc to the IRS, so he's donating the money back to himself so he can disclose his income as donations?..

Sounds like a conspiracy
He filed for and received an extension. He has until November 15th to file. Last year he filed 2 days before the dead-line (got an extension last year also).

I'm on the list to receive a copy as soon as it's filed.
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Old 16th October 2012, 09:37 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Mid-month update:

Sep 30: 1720
Oct 16: 1733

13 new in 15.5 days - looks impressive.
But remember the backlog I mentioned: Of these 13, 9 signed up in september but didn't appear on the webpage before october 1st.


Sep 30: 15,470
Oct 16: 15,650

That's 180 new signatures in 15.5 days, but again, remember the backlog they had at the end of september, which they have cleaned by now. About half of these 180 actually already signed up in september, and the other half in october. So while I logged 400 new signatures for september, october is on a pace towards perhaps 270 - and actually, closer to 490 signed up in september, and october so far has only 180/month. In other words: The september 11th anniversary hype is already over.


Predictably, after the september mayhem, page hits are again sharply down this month:
Aug 2012 - Jul 2012: 7042 hits/day
Aug 2012: 5306 hits/day
Sep 2012: 10779 hits/day
Oct 2012: 6430 hits/day ()through october 16th, lunch time in Europe)


This still applies.



Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 21, 2012 (61 days)
Target: US$ 9,600 ($157/day)
Raised so far (October 09): $ 9,600 (Sep 30: $8,085)
Contributors: 52 (Sep 30: 44)
ENDED, on target

8 contributors in September gave $1,515, that's an average of $189.38 per contributor, $168.33 per day - dominated by a single donation of $1,000. Earlier, there had been three individual donations of $500 each, and one early $5,000 donation in august. This puzzles me a bit - who are the domors of such amounts? So 5 of 52 donations added up to $7,500, the other 47 to just $2,100 (under $45 per donation).




Started: Aug 21, 2012
Scheduled end: Oct 30, 2012 (70 days)
Target: US$ 3,200 ($46/day)
Raised so far (Oct 16): $3,370 (Sep 30: $2,280) - that's 105% of trarget
Contributors: 38 (Sep 30: 32)

$1090 from 6 contributors in october - these break down as 20, 40 and 60 dollars, and then I saw an increase of 970 with 3 donations. I'd there was one big donation of $900 to reach 100% of target, and 2 smaller ones of perhaps 20 and 50 dollars on top of that. All previous contibutions but two had been under $51. There had been one $500-donation in August, and a $150 one in september. So here, again, two individual donations of $900 and $500 totally dominate an otherwise slow fundraiser.


So far in 2012, such fundraisers (there were five, and the better part of a sixth that began in december '11) raised a total of about $25,900.
In 2011, the total was over $38,000 from the same number of fundraisers. In 2010, the total was over 40,000 from seven and a half campaigns. So this sort of income has a downward trend, though not as dramatically as the signatures.
This appears fairly straightforward to me. It's become formulaic for Gage. He has a clear understanding of how many people he can attract from talking with groups of a given size and how much money he can get - on average. All he has to do is keep up his campaigning and fund raising.

I've been saying for years that the idea the Truth Movement is dead is nonsense. There are vast numbers of people who continue to feel strongly about this. Gage is still able to mobolize gainfully employed people to make videos for him - for example his Psychologists for 9/11 Truth thing. At least some of those people - and I suspect all of them - come from his personal church contacts. $1000? That's not a lot of money. If you really believed in this Truth crap, how many people on the JREF with regular jobs as teachers, engineers, architects, etc could afford this? All of them. Besides, for all I know, it came from Tony Szamboti or David Ray Griffin, who despite their crazy ideas remain gainfully employed.

9/11 Truth has become like Scientology. Hardly anyone joins them and membership is increasingly determined by the birthrate of past members. Past members remain very enthusiastic and willing to donate large amounts of their income. The public membership of famous people has no affect whatsoever on how others feel about the belief system, which is generally viewed as creepy and to be avoided at all cost.

My guess is Gage can keep on doing this forever. The cash flow situation he has established is guaranteed. The people he is directing his message to don't care about scientific reasoning or the consensus of the engineering community.
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Last edited by Scott Sommers; 16th October 2012 at 09:39 PM.
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Old 17th October 2012, 12:09 AM   #348
Oystein
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Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
This appears fairly straightforward to me. It's become formulaic for Gage. He has a clear understanding of how many people he can attract from talking with groups of a given size and how much money he can get - on average. All he has to do is keep up his campaigning and fund raising.
Good point.

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
I've been saying for years that the idea the Truth Movement is dead is nonsense. There are vast numbers of people who continue to feel strongly about this. Gage is still able to mobolize gainfully employed people to make videos for him - for example his Psychologists for 9/11 Truth thing. At least some of those people - and I suspect all of them - come from his personal church contacts. $1000? That's not a lot of money. If you really believed in this Truth crap, how many people on the JREF with regular jobs as teachers, engineers, architects, etc could afford this? All of them. Besides, for all I know, it came from Tony Szamboti or David Ray Griffin, who despite their crazy ideas remain gainfully employed.
I am not so sure about the "vast numbers". Vast numbers feel strongly about human rights, even vaster numbers about childrens' rights and animal rights and the environment. Online petitions for the benefit of an child care center or even a single dog frequently outpace the current flock of truther petitions by wide margins. There seem to be only a few thousand persons worldwide that are still invested in this issue, feel strongly enough and are connected well enough to just fill out a form on the internet. Only a few dozend part with their money on a given cause.

Yes, I believe there are a few sustaining members of that "church". There are more who spend their time than their money.

What I want to point out though is that these two latest fundraisers were exceptional, compared to the four previous ones, in that they were dominated by a few very large donations; both had large donations early on, and both reached their targets with a final large donation. How convenient. I can't prove it, of course, but that smells like pimping. Doesn't have to be Gage himself who's doing the pimping - after all, they now took both off the website, before the planned end date. Pimping with his own money would thus have the effect of decreasing income. I think he personally reached out to his sustainers.

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
...
My guess is Gage can keep on doing this forever. The cash flow situation he has established is guaranteed. The people he is directing his message to don't care about scientific reasoning or the consensus of the engineering community.
I disagree somewhat with this. I have predicted, and I stay by that, that his 2011 income will be somewhat down from 2010, and that he already feels a more dramatic decrease of income in 2012. I further said that his organisation will struggle financially to survive 2013.

You see, this is not actually a church. It does not offer god's grace, eternal redemption, or elevation of the soul in the hereafter. $1000 won't bring you closer to victory over death.
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Old 17th October 2012, 01:29 AM   #349
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Good point.

I am not so sure about the "vast numbers". Vast numbers feel strongly about human rights, even vaster numbers about childrens' rights and animal rights and the environment. Online petitions for the benefit of an child care center or even a single dog frequently outpace the current flock of truther petitions by wide margins. There seem to be only a few thousand persons worldwide that are still invested in this issue, feel strongly enough and are connected well enough to just fill out a form on the internet. Only a few dozens part with their money on a given cause.
Much of this depends on what we mean by a Truther. Are Truthers people willing to endorse Truther-type items on a random phone survey? The most recent surveys point to millions willing to endorse these. Angus-Reid in 2010 found 15% willing to endorse,
Quote:
The collapse of the World Trade Center was the result of a controlled demolition
Of course these are not all active Truthers. In fact, my guess is that many of them would be African-American. Others would be Democrats who saw Michael Moore's movie, or something like that. I suspect, almost all of them would laugh at Truthers standing on the street corner yelling at people. Almost none of them would be giving money to Truther groups or marching with them in their rallies..

In your post, you delineate this further, talking about Truthers who are "invested in the issue." This is a good way to categorize. In fact, this usage of English is so natural and concise, I'm having trouble believing you are not a native English speaker. Yes, this is the term that needs to used. And you would be correct in your estimation of this group's size.
Quote:
only a few thousand persons worldwide that are still invested in this issue
These would be people who sign Internet petitions, give money or attend rallies. These would be people who talk about 9/11 Truth with their friends.

Which of these 2 groups are we talking about? On the JREF, it is clearly the latter.

Quote:
Yes, I believe there are a few sustaining members of that "church". There are more who spend their time than their money.

What I want to point out though is that these two latest fundraisers were exceptional, compared to the four previous ones, in that they were dominated by a few very large donations; both had large donations early on, and both reached their targets with a final large donation. How convenient. I can't prove it, of course, but that smells like pimping. Doesn't have to be Gage himself who's doing the pimping - after all, they now took both off the website, before the planned end date. Pimping with his own money would thus have the effect of decreasing income. I think he personally reached out to his sustainers.
The issue to me is the connection between the two groups we pointed to above. Does the latter recruit from the former? I doubt it. 'Invested' Truthers are recruited from the same pool of people who used to join New Age religious groups when I was in my 20s and 30s. Many of the right wing Truthers I know talk openly about their past interest in new age religion. Gage's left wing Truthers are drawn openly from liberal Christian churches and fringe groups like transcendental meditation. Some of his regional contact people for 9/11T are astrologers.

Quote:
I disagree somewhat with this. I have predicted, and I stay by that, that his 2011 income will be somewhat down from 2010, and that he already feels a more dramatic decrease of income in 2012. I further said that his organisation will struggle financially to survive 2013.

You see, this is not actually a church. It does not offer god's grace, eternal redemption, or elevation of the soul in the hereafter. $1000 won't bring you closer to victory over death.
This is where I will predict differently. 9/11T does not directly offer, "god's grace, eternal redemption, or elevation of the soul in the hereafter," but it is directly connected to these issues in the same way that creation science has been. It is a political manifestation of these for many American Christians. There is no way it is going anywhere for these people. They will continue to give their time and money and energy to this cause as long as they have breathe. It is a living demonstration of their faith in God on earth.

I'll bet you a beer on this one. In 3 years, AE9/11T will still be touring, drawing in money and paying Gage a salary. I never gamble but this one is worth it. Let's have a pool on this one.
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Old 17th October 2012, 03:15 AM   #350
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Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
Much of this depends on what we mean by a Truther. Are Truthers people willing to endorse Truther-type items on a random phone survey? The most recent surveys point to millions willing to endorse these. Angus-Reid in 2010 found 15% willing to endorse,

Of course these are not all active Truthers. In fact, my guess is that many of them would be African-American. Others would be Democrats who saw Michael Moore's movie, or something like that. I suspect, almost all of them would laugh at Truthers standing on the street corner yelling at people. Almost none of them would be giving money to Truther groups or marching with them in their rallies..
Well, if a random phone survey asked me if I think Lee Harvey Oswald was part of a conspiracy, I might be inclined to answer "yes", depending on the wording. That's because I know very little about that case beyond what I learned from the Oliver Stone movie. Does that mean a lot? Ask people randomly what they think about any complex issue, say, tax reform, and results won't resemble objective facts but general political allegiance (or political spite). I don't think my behaviour - in elections, for example - changes because of such a single issue. So I'd say it is an insignificant polling result. It informs us less about what people think they know about 9/11 (most people know almost nothing), but more about wide-spread disconnection (which is why I tend not to doubt your suspicion that such beliefs are more wide-spread among African-Americans).

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
In your post, you delineate this further, talking about Truthers who are "invested in the issue." This is a good way to categorize. In fact, this usage of English is so natural and concise, I'm having trouble believing you are not a native English speaker.
Wow - thanks
Sometimes I can't find a word or phrase that would come naturally to a native speaker with comparable education and intelligence, and sometimes I can. Only in the latter case do you wonder. Occasionally a funny or wrong usage of a word or phrase reveals my non-native status.
I lived in the USA for two and a half years as a graduate student, perhaps a third of what I read is English, and more than half of what I write. I mostly think English when I write it. I am not a good translator, though.

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
Yes, this is the term that needs to used. And you would be correct in your estimation of this group's size.

These would be people who sign Internet petitions, give money or attend rallies. These would be people who talk about 9/11 Truth with their friends.

Which of these 2 groups are we talking about? On the JREF, it is clearly the latter.
I am clearly interested in the latter. Particularly in this thread, I am monitoring the active Truthers: Those that sign petitions and donate money.

Recently I started to monitor page hits. That would probably measure a somewhat wider group - those active enough to seek Truth websites and click them (perhaps even read them), but not necessarily act on them. Interestingly, that new petition calling on President Obama to watch Gage's latest mockumentary, which has been prominently displayed on the top of the right hand column of his website, has so far been signed by just over 1300 people since june 19th - in 4 months. During the same time, the site has been watched over 850,000 times! So, numerically, there is one active signer per 640 page hits.
Perhaps even more interestingly, so far in october, that petition at change.org has received only 70 new signatures, while Gage's original A&E petition form has been filled out more than 150 times (of which ca. 90 have so far been accepted by their verification team - 86 of these not A&E). I speculate that the difference can be explained by the reluctance of people to plug in personal info after changing websites.

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
The issue to me is the connection between the two groups we pointed to above. Does the latter recruit from the former? I doubt it.
That's my intuition, too. Recruiting is not mathematically zero, of course, but an insignificant trickle.

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
'Invested' Truthers are recruited from the same pool of people who used to join New Age religious groups when I was in my 20s and 30s. Many of the right wing Truthers I know talk openly about their past interest in new age religion. Gage's left wing Truthers are drawn openly from liberal Christian churches and fringe groups like transcendental meditation. Some of his regional contact people for 9/11T are astrologers.
I am glad you are saying this! I haven't investigated this in a systematic fashion, but it has been my impression after reading a lot personal statements, and also by occasionally checking which other causes these people support at change.org, that there is a strong faction among Gage's supporters that lean left, and also a strong faction that is sympathetic to esoteric thought. Of course there are also the Ron Paulists. What I haven't seen more often than I would expect is direct references to god or religious beliefs. Sure, you see them, but that is (sorry) America for me...

Originally Posted by Scott Sommers View Post
This is where I will predict differently. 9/11T does not directly offer, "god's grace, eternal redemption, or elevation of the soul in the hereafter," but it is directly connected to these issues in the same way that creation science has been. It is a political manifestation of these for many American Christians. There is no way it is going anywhere for these people. They will continue to give their time and money and energy to this cause as long as they have breathe. It is a living demonstration of their faith in God on earth.

I'll bet you a beer on this one. In 3 years, AE9/11T will still be touring, drawing in money and paying Gage a salary. I never gamble but this one is worth it. Let's have a pool on this one.
Alright, I am game (hope we don't forget )! In three years, that's october 2015.

Website will still be up, of course, and they will still call for money, but what I am saying is they won't pay Gage a salary sufficient to make a living, and by corollary, touring will be sharply down. I also think that many of those who are now actively helping (the local organizers, the verification team, ...) will be discouraged by dwindling attention, find other priorities in their lives, drop out, and not be adequately replaced. Gage will have given up on the project as his main occupation and sole source of income.
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Old 22nd October 2012, 02:14 AM   #351
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Is anyone keeping tabs on the split of Engineers/Architects/Civil and structural engineers out of their claims 1700+? Last I can find was May when Oystein stated they had around 311 Engineers, with 142 sefl-claimed civil/structural engineers, and only 25 confirmed licensed. Anyone keeping tabs on how this has changed?

I only ask because someone has posted on one of my youtube videos the following;

Quote:
Architects and Engineers for 9/11 truth has 1,734 members according to my last mailing list. 517 fully qualified Structural Engineers, thats almost a 3rd of all our members. Our membership has never reduced in size and we have never received any requests to do so. The membership form is quite detailed so id say pretty impossible for names to be added without consent. We also have 15,673 other members.

if you want to spin your disinfo here, make sure you have evidence.
mmmmm..
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Old 22nd October 2012, 03:31 AM   #352
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cj,

I can upload the full listing later today if you like, but I don't keep a designation of engineering discipline up-to-date.

It's a bit difficult to count "fully qualified structural engineers", but I am reasonably sure that number of 517 is exaggerated. My best guess is that your opponent counts degrees in civil engineering - of which "structural engineering" is a subset, and "fully qualified" an even smaller subset.

Structural engineers may be contained in three of their five categories: Engineers (licensed and degreed), Engineering Professionals (degreed only), and Non-US.

It is my understanding that, for a S.E. to be "fully qualified" in the USA, he must have a license as professional engineer, so only a subset of the currently 272 professional engineers could be "fully qualified structural engineers". Add to that a fraction of the 419 Non-US signers (which include architects and all sorts of engineers, licensed or not) and you'll remain well short of 517. I'd think the actual number is only in the double digits.


So - interested in a spreadsheet, current as of 10/13? What format? I mostly use LibreOffice (the OpenOffice XML format), but could do a CSV, or XLS.
(A tricky part is the bios and personal statements - I don't have them completely, and those longer than 255 characters are troublesome sometimes)


I agree with your opponent that at least the 1700+ entries are almost all genuine, no fakes; and I also think that almost all of them actually leaned towards CD when they signed, judging from many personal statements.

He is wrong though to claim that the list never lost members or was reduced in size. I have a list of 69 A&E who have been taken off of the list entirely and didn't sign up again. A few more who were deleted and signed up anew, and some who appeared twice, so one signature was deleted. Also, some former A&E listings were recategorized as "Other Supporters" (and vice versa).
In the slow summer months of this year, these changes resulted in a net net shrinking of the A&E list over the course of some weeks.
(Also, sometimes names are missing from the list, but are still counted, when the "member" updated his profile. The profile is then set to a status "under review" and doesn't appear on the list. It can take many weeks, perhaps months even, for the verification team to get around to reviewing changed profiles)

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Old 22nd October 2012, 04:02 AM   #353
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Thanks Oystein, yeah I didn't doubt the authenticity, however I did call bs on his figures. XLS would be great if it's not too much trouble, don't stress if its not absolutely recent, this is after all just a youtube scuffle, nothing important, but I'm sure many others here on JREF would be interesting in seeing a spread of the members.
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Old 23rd October 2012, 01:26 AM   #354
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Originally Posted by cjnewson88 View Post
Thanks Oystein, yeah I didn't doubt the authenticity, however I did call bs on his figures. XLS would be great if it's not too much trouble, don't stress if its not absolutely recent, this is after all just a youtube scuffle, nothing important, but I'm sure many others here on JREF would be interesting in seeing a spread of the members.
Me, for one.
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Old 23rd October 2012, 09:11 AM   #355
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here it is - the current (as of oct 13th) list of Architects and Engineers that signed Gage's petition - 1731 names, as an Excel spreadsheet.

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/72370224/dum...s_20121013.xls

Some explanations for what the columns mean:
  • EarliestDate: The first time this signatory showed up on a download of the list (I have 25 downloads from May 2007 to now))
  • LatestDate: always oct 13 now, as I didn't include those that have been deleted or moved to "Other Supporters""
  • estSignupDate: For the new signers since january, this is my best estimate for the date they actually filled out the form (this is from plotting profile IDs). I might be off by a few days, but no more. They show up on the list later than that, due to verification taking days to weeks)
  • Discipline: For the Professional (licensed) Engineers and the Non-US members, I went through several columns and pinned down my best assessment of what engineering discipline best describes these guys. It is sometimes difficult to say if someone is "just" a Civil engineer or can be considered a "Structural" engineer. Don't take my word on this!
  • BioPersStateStatus: You'll notice that I don't have bio and personal statement for about 150 profiles, and others are trunkated to the first paragraph, or 255 characters ("Stub"), while many are complete ("Full")
  • ProfileID_Status: The first six profiles are under "Review", that means the member changed the profile, and the change hasn't yet been reviewed and approved by Gage's people. Those profiles don't currently show on the website, but they count them anyway.

So you'll find that, in my judgement, they have approximately 60 structural engineers (STR), plus about 170 civil engineers (CIV). A handful describe themselves as "architectural engineers" (ARC - not to be confused with "Architect"). Those, as well as the "fire protection engineer" (FIR) and perhaps some of the marine, geological or mechanical engineers, possibly can also claim to have relevent professional expertise about steel constructions.
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Old 24th October 2012, 01:38 AM   #356
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Thanks, Oystein!
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Old 24th October 2012, 01:10 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post

So you'll find that, in my judgement, they have approximately 60 structural engineers (STR), plus about 170 civil engineers (CIV). A handful describe themselves as "architectural engineers" (ARC - not to be confused with "Architect"). Those, as well as the "fire protection engineer" (FIR) and perhaps some of the marine, geological or mechanical engineers, possibly can also claim to have relevent professional expertise about steel constructions.
After eleven years that's a pitiful number but then its a pitiful cause.
Thanks for the figures.
Your time spent putting a lot of work into the subject is appreciated
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Old 28th October 2012, 12:52 AM   #358
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Reading the ae911truth website the other day, I see they are recruiting fundraisers to contact all the people who have signed up to their web site. I bet you one question they dont ask them is do you believe that the towers were brought down by a controlled demolition.

They say that 9 out of 10 times the petition signers are glad to hear from the fundraisers. More "truth" I expect

at least it shows that 10% are not happy to be contacted by them.
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Old 28th October 2012, 07:07 AM   #359
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Originally Posted by Richard the G View Post
... I bet you one question they dont ask them is do you believe that the towers were brought down by a controlled demolition. ...
So?

I am fairly certain that the vast majority of them do actually believe in CD, or at least consider it significantly likely. That's judging from very many personal statements.
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Old 30th October 2012, 09:27 PM   #360
Richard the G
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
So?

I am fairly certain that the vast majority of them do actually believe in CD, or at least consider it significantly likely. That's judging from very many personal statements.
Why do you belive this. Some of these people signed up maybe 5 years ago. Do you not change you mind, particularly with something that sounds believeable at first but stupid upon consideration.

And why dont you think that the aetruth movement is driven by a couple of hundred true believers. Look at this thread 2 out of a hundred believe that they can change peoples minds.
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