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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , joe biden

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Old 2nd September 2020, 05:16 PM   #161
Minoosh
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Because "Abolish the police!"?
Maybe, but the current situation is not really supporting that agenda.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 06:13 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
My best friend in college who grew up in Minneapolis told me that "there is not a gas station or grocery store left that is not burned down within five miles of where I used to live.

I responded "that's terrible, are they going to rebuild?"

"Naw man," he said. "They're all poor man."

"That's sad," I responded.

I'm sure he meant it as hyperbole, but a 5 mile radius is 78 square miles, and the entire city of Minneapolis is only 57 square miles. I doubt that every gas station and grocery store in the entire city has been destroyed.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 07:04 PM   #163
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Biden has condemned the violence no matter which side it's coming from and he's right on that. The BLM movement has right on its side...as long as it remains peaceful, but within almost every movement you have the extremists that ruin it and BLM certainly has those. When BLM first started protesting, it was peaceful and the fast majority of the country was on their side. Then the extremists/trouble makers came out and things became violent. It's got to stop because it only plays directly into Trump's hand and he's using it as only he can.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 07:09 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?


You might have to go back into the Civil War files for that.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 07:16 PM   #165
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
I am not sure why you would need someone to Google that for you, but sure.

I also don't want to get too far into a sidetrack. However, the peaceful protests for social justice change, and the violent riots that have been apart of a number of cities are likely the most important factor in determining the election behind COVID 19.

How those affect polling and the ads/messaging from the candidates on those issues should likely be the focus for this particular issue in terms of this thread.


You can see plenty of pictures of burned sections of cities if you look for it.

https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/lo...0ecbd4945.html

https://www.twincities.com/2020/06/0...on-from-riots/


My best friend in college who grew up in Minneapolis told me that "there is not a gas station or grocery store left that is not burned down within five miles of where I used to live.

I responded "that's terrible, are they going to rebuild?"

"Naw man," he said. "They're all poor man."

"That's sad," I responded.
I don't think a couple of square blocks in a couple of cities is the thing Delphic was looking for:
Quote:
"huge sections" of American cities burned out
Crap the LA riots, the Detroit riots, even the Watts riots had actual "huge sections" of those cities burned out.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 08:39 PM   #166
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I don't think a couple of square blocks in a couple of cities is the thing Delphic was looking for:

Crap the LA riots, the Detroit riots, even the Watts riots had actual "huge sections" of those cities burned out.
I am sure that it is easy to handwave away as long as you don't have a business or a home in those 'couple of blocks' that have been burned down and destroyed.

However, there is a significant portion of those cities that have been destroyed, a larger significant amount of business that have left because of the violent riots (it was 10,000 jobs lost a month ago in Minneapolis, and many more after the recent riots at the end of August), and there is an even a greater swath of voters that have been swayed by the violence.

All of Portland is certainly not on fire, but there has been more that enough riots, assaults, and protest based shootings for it to be a major election issue.

For the purpose of this thread, COVID 19 will likely have more of an influence on the outcome of the election, but the rioters will likely be the last thing to have the most major impact on who wins the election.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 08:45 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
For the purpose of this thread, COVID 19 will likely have more of an influence on the outcome of the election, but the rioters will likely be the last thing to have the most major impact on who wins the election.
OMG, is that a meteorite heading straight for us?!?
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Old 2nd September 2020, 08:48 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
I am sure that it is easy to handwave away as long as you don't have a business or a home in those 'couple of blocks' that have been burned down and destroyed.

However, there is a significant portion of those cities that have been destroyed, a larger significant amount of business that have left because of the violent riots (it was 10,000 jobs lost a month ago in Minneapolis, and many more after the recent riots at the end of August), and there is an even a greater swath of voters that have been swayed by the violence.

All of Portland is certainly not on fire, but there has been more that enough riots, assaults, and protest based shootings for it to be a major election issue.

For the purpose of this thread, COVID 19 will likely have more of an influence on the outcome of the election, but the rioters will likely be the last thing to have the most major impact on who wins the election.
I live in the Seattle suburb of Bellevue. My son lives in Seattle and only recently moved out of the neighborhood next to the CHOP Zone. No one said there wasn't anyone harmed by the small number of idiots who think the noise they are making is making a difference. They are not a serious part of BLM.

But the issue here was the absurd distortion there were/are "'huge sections' of American cities burned out."

So don't shift the goal posts and expect no one will notice.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 08:48 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by Minoosh View Post
That article raises an interesting question - why do so many people expect approval ratings to go up and down? Trump's approval never changes - and he never changes, so maybe that makes sense. Not cracking much over 40 percent would unnerve other presidents, but Trump just goes with the presumption that he can win with a minority so he keeps that minority happy.

I do think the 40 percent probably unnerves some of his allies in Congress.
Trump's approval ratings are just a couple points off of Obamas at this same time in the presidency. Trump is 3 or 4 pts higher now than Obama's lowest ratings. (44 vs 40%)
I think Trump won the election with VERY low ratings (obviously not presidential ones since he had not won yet). 31% or so.

I do not think this particular rating means very much.

Just look it up. Numbers galore and I'm not sure who is most accurate so do your best to decide on your own.
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Old 2nd September 2020, 08:49 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
OMG, is that a meteorite heading straight for us?!?
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Old 3rd September 2020, 05:12 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
I am sure that it is easy to handwave away as long as you don't have a business or a home in those 'couple of blocks' that have been burned down and destroyed.
Yet we've expected the black community to handwave around members of their community being murdered in the streets by police for decades now.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 05:49 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
I am sure that it is easy to handwave away as long as you don't have a business or a home in those 'couple of blocks' that have been burned down and destroyed.
It's hardly a handwave to point out that the claim put forth about large parts of cities being burned was not in fact true.

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yet we've expected the black community to handwave around members of their community being murdered in the streets by police for decades now.
Yes, that's a few bad apples and not representative of the force or the system as a whole despite all the evidence to the contrary .
The thugs vandalizing cars and burning down stores, however, represent both BLM as a movement, so much so that the entire movement can be written off as a dangerous mob and only Father Trump can save Christian white America from destruction at the hands of the blacks.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 05:56 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Can we get some reference for what "huge sections" of American cities burned out looks like?
How about famous police actions like?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOVE
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Old 3rd September 2020, 06:14 AM   #174
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Moderators named for presidential debates

Chris Wallace, of "person man woman camera TV" fame, is going to moderate the first debate. He should ask Trump if he still remembers all five words .
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Old 3rd September 2020, 06:21 AM   #175
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Moderators named for presidential debates

Chris Wallace, of "person man woman camera TV" fame, is going to moderate the first debate. He should ask Trump if he still remembers all five words .


None of the 24 moderators suggested by Trump made it.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 06:26 AM   #176
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post


None of the 24 moderators suggested by Trump made it.
Before I opened the link, I expected the list to be his family members .

"Trumpís Debate Moderator Wish List Is Stacked With Fox News Stars and Pushovers

The campaignís suggestions for 2020 debate moderators draw heavily from Trumpís favorite cable-news safe space."


I suppose that would've been my second guess .
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Old 3rd September 2020, 06:27 AM   #177
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Before I opened the link, I expected the list to be his family members .

"Trumpís Debate Moderator Wish List Is Stacked With Fox News Stars and Pushovers

The campaignís suggestions for 2020 debate moderators draw heavily from Trumpís favorite cable-news safe space."


I suppose that would've been my second guess .
I would hope the Canadian prime minister would have been picked.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 07:45 AM   #178
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I live in the Seattle suburb of Bellevue. My son lives in Seattle and only recently moved out of the neighborhood next to the CHOP Zone. No one said there wasn't anyone harmed by the small number of idiots who think the noise they are making is making a difference. They are not a serious part of BLM.



But the issue here was the absurd distortion there were/are "'huge sections' of American cities burned out."



So don't shift the goal posts and expect no one will notice.
Exactly.

Plus a council representing business interests predicting up to 10,000 jobs lost is a weak reference.

I do acknowledge many people have been seriously impacted.

It is the dystopian portrayals that I'm pushing back on.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 07:52 AM   #179
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
OMG, is that a meteorite heading straight for us?!?
No, it's an asteroid which PROBABLY won't hit us on November 2....

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is suing Montana -- MONTANA! -- to prevent them allowing counties the option of mail-in voting.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 07:56 AM   #180
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I would actually respect Trump more if he was just trying get "It's illegal to vote for anyone but me" passed as a law. At least that would be honest.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 08:07 AM   #181
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is suing Montana -- MONTANA! -- to prevent them allowing counties the option of mail-in voting.
Cook Political Report has the Montana Senate race as a toss up, that may be a reason.

Or they just like to sue ...
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Old 3rd September 2020, 08:26 AM   #182
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Cook Political Report has the Montana Senate race as a toss up, that may be a reason.

Or they just like to sue ...
Is that Kate's preferred pronoun?
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Old 3rd September 2020, 11:27 AM   #183
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Yes, but it is also a favourite of conspiracy theorists. Who gains from the 9/11 Terror Attacks? Why, Dick Cheney and his shareholders of Halliburton, of course. Therefore they MUST have been behind it.

There are plenty of people who feel they benefit from riots. Some people just enjoy them or they feel it is a good way to get back at people they hate. Then of course, there is the attendant looting: Who benefits when someone smashes a brick through a window and makes off with brand new sneakers, clothes, games, and whatever else takes their fancy? Well, presumably the looters do, if they don't get caught by the police.

The rioters and looters are the cause of the rioting and the looting.
Recall that Kellyanne Conway recently said in about as many words that the rioting, looting and chaos benefits Trump.

And note that Trump is essentially egging it on.

So we need not resort to surmise in divining that Trump has an interest in the maintenance of violence.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 02:51 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I live in the Seattle suburb of Bellevue. My son lives in Seattle and only recently moved out of the neighborhood next to the CHOP Zone. No one said there wasn't anyone harmed by the small number of idiots who think the noise they are making is making a difference. They are not a serious part of BLM.

But the issue here was the absurd distortion there were/are "'huge sections' of American cities burned out."

So don't shift the goal posts and expect no one will notice.
OK, fair enough. "huge" and "large" are certainly subjective terms.

We can all agree that there have been multiple buildings burned or destroyed across a number of different cities during the recent violent protests, and that the damage to those cities is a significant voting issue in this election.

Specifically if I could narrow it down, the primary issue is with certain mayors and governors who have refused to take meaningful steps to stop the violence, and have purposefully allowed it to occur sometimes nearly unabated.

I would consider the aerial photos of damage in Kenosha and Minneapolis to be "large," and "huge," and there is no one who can claim that the images of that destruction do not exist, even if they don't want to look at them.

How significant of an issue that is to each individual person, and how they would describe the damage to those cities certainly varies by person, but it is definitely significant enough for both candidates to spend a good amount of their focus, time, and money on.



If Trump is reelected, I would consider it entirely possible that he would force a government response in these areas even if it went against the wishes of the local governments there. Which could potentially lead to serious conflict between local and Federal forces. If the State police for example were ordered to prevent DHS forces from entering into places like Portland or Seattle, than there would be the possibility for a much wider conflict.

I think that it is entirely possible that Trump would force a Federal response early in order to stir up a fight that he thinks would be politically advantageous to him. His call to withhold Federal funding to cities like Portland, Seattle, DC, and New York to force them to deal more forcefully with violent protesters is certainly an effort to stir up a fight. Although instead of a physical fight, that is a battle that would be waged in news articles and the courts.

The most significant change that would actually make real steps to reduce the violence will be combating rogue District Attorneys who have stated that they will not enforce the laws for violent protesters. https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ester-charges/

If Biden is elected, I would expect him to find solutions that work more collaboratively with local leaders, but finding solutions to the continued violence would likely still be a major focus. He will still have to deal with many of the same issues that Trump has had to deal with though. Including local governments who are disinterested in protecting the safety of their citizens, and rogue DAs who purposefully enable the violence to continue. How he navigates his potential future responsibilities along with his current messaging to win the election will be a delicate dance for him.

Last edited by HoverBoarder; 3rd September 2020 at 02:57 PM.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 02:55 PM   #185
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Trump suggests that North Carolina voters should test mail-in system by trying to vote twice

Wow.

Quote:
"Let them send it in and let them go vote, and if the system is as good as they say it is, then obviously they won't be able to vote," Trump told local station WECT after arriving in Wilmington, North Carolina.

Voting twice in the same election is illegal, and doing so deliberately is an example of the very kind of voter fraud that Trump has spent months railing against. In North Carolina, it is a felony "with intent to commit a fraud to register or vote at more than one precinct or more than one time, or to induce another to do so, in the same primary or election, or to vote illegally at any primary or election."
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Old 3rd September 2020, 02:58 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
He knows some of his supporters will do it. A significant amount of his cult drank bleach at the mere mention of it maybe being effective.

Here is what will happen. Some of his cultists will vote twice, they'll get caught. Then Trump will show this as proof that voter fraud is occurring and that the only reason Republican voters are caught is because of the deep state refusing to catch the Democratic voter frauds...
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Old 3rd September 2020, 03:09 PM   #187
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Calling it: "hes bein sarcastic to triggur teh libz!!11"
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Old 3rd September 2020, 03:17 PM   #188
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
No, it's an asteroid which PROBABLY won't hit us on November 2....

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign is suing Montana -- MONTANA! -- to prevent them allowing counties the option of mail-in voting.
Interesting since Montana is listed as a strong Trump win.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 03:18 PM   #189
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Cook Political Report has the Montana Senate race as a toss up, that may be a reason.

Or they just like to sue ...
Aha, I see.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 05:10 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Calling it: "hes bein sarcastic to triggur teh libz!!11"
Nope, he was only suggesting they check to see if their absentee ballot was in the system. Or something like that.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
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Old 3rd September 2020, 07:21 PM   #191
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From the Trump thread:
Originally Posted by Elagabalus View Post
Sheesh. No kidding! I was about to ask SG if the salon story was only being talked about on Fox. I'm sure CNN MSNBC are all covering it too.
Fox ran the story, Tucker Carlson amplified it, the salon owner is making money off it plus she's a Trump supporter, a twofur for her, Pelosi had to respond that it was a set-up... so yeah it is all over the news.

But it belongs in the 2020 election thread so I'll copy paste this post over to here.
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Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
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Old 4th September 2020, 08:30 AM   #192
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Originally Posted by FiveThirtyEight
Theories that the unrest following the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wisconsin, would benefit President Trump electorally appear to have been wrong -- at least so far. To the contrary, a new ABC News/Ipsos survey found that most Americans think the president is making the situation worse, while majorities think Joe Biden would do a better job handling the protests, racial discrimination and uniting the country. Meanwhile, Biden’s lead in national polls has narrowed since the Republican National Convention, but only slightly.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Links to polls on that page.

538 has Biden with only a 71% chance to win, but the blue states look more solid than Trump's. In fact from the "ribbon diagram" there seems to be a lot of states close to swing state status this year.

ETA: FiveThirtyEight also has Trump's popularity back where it was in May, though.
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Last edited by Safe-Keeper; 4th September 2020 at 08:32 AM.
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Old 4th September 2020, 08:55 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

538 has Biden with only a 71% chance to win
Scary. This is the exact percentage they gave Clinton to win on election day. I'm not sure if anyone remembers, but... she didn't win.
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Old 4th September 2020, 09:19 AM   #194
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It's about halfway between 100% and a coin toss. Which is both reassuring and scary. Almost 3 out of 4 chance to win sounds good, but we all know that events with a ľ probability happen all the time. One fourth of the time, in fact.

I'm trying to look at it from the bright side and remember that 70-80% is still a big number.
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Old 4th September 2020, 09:57 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
Links to polls on that page.

538 has Biden with only a 71% chance to win, but the blue states look more solid than Trump's. In fact from the "ribbon diagram" there seems to be a lot of states close to swing state status this year.

ETA: FiveThirtyEight also has Trump's popularity back where it was in May, though.
You are definitely right that there are a lot of States in the swing category this year.

It looks like the three States that are closest are North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona.

Biden is slightly favored to win all three of those states, but can still win if he loses all three of those states as long as he wins Pennsylvania.

It's pretty wild to me that Nevada is so solidly blue though. Out of the last 13 presidential elections, they have had 5 out of 13 go blue.
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Old 4th September 2020, 02:23 PM   #196
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And here we go:

"Early vote update 9/4:

32 people have cast ballots for the 2020 general election in IL, NC, and SC"

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/sta...528709120?s=19

Can we call at least Illinois today?
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Old 4th September 2020, 02:34 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
And here we go:

"Early vote update 9/4:

32 people have cast ballots for the 2020 general election in IL, NC, and SC"

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/sta...528709120?s=19

Can we call at least Illinois today?
Depends. How good were the exit polls?
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Thousands of COMMUTATIONS GRANTED BY PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA (2009-2017)

Privatize the profits and socialize the losses. It's the American way. That's how Mnuchin got rich. Worse, he did it on the backs of elderly people who had been conned into reverse mortgages. Mnuchin paid zero, took on the debt then taxpayers bailed him out.
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Old 4th September 2020, 02:54 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
Alternative interpretation:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...28521026744322

North Carolina is supposed to have safeguards in place against double voting. This is good. We expect those safeguards. We want those safeguards. And we can actually verify those safeguards.

Mail in your ballot. If the safeguards are working, you should be able to go down to your polling place on election day and see that you're already accounted for. They won't let you vote again.

But what happens if you get to your polling place and you're *not* already accounted for? You mailed in your ballot, but for some reason there's no record of it. Did they get it? Was it recorded? You have no idea. As far as the safeguards are concerned, you haven't voted at all yet. In that situation, if you take voting seriously, you should vote at your polling place.

You should probably also push for a thorough audit of the safeguards, and harsh penalties for whoever had the job and screwed it up.
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Old 4th September 2020, 03:21 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by HoverBoarder View Post
It's pretty wild to me that Nevada is so solidly blue though. Out of the last 13 presidential elections, they have had 5 out of 13 go blue.
It's crazy to see Texas as a toss-up in several of 270towin.com's maps, too.
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Old 4th September 2020, 04:58 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
And here we go:

"Early vote update 9/4:

32 people have cast ballots for the 2020 general election in IL, NC, and SC"

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/sta...528709120?s=19

Can we call at least Illinois today?
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Depends. How good were the exit polls?
I'm perfectly wiling to go out on a limb and call Illinois for Biden now.
Feel free to check back on November 4th and see how I did.
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