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Old 11th September 2019, 03:12 AM   #2681
Samson
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Unless Johnson and his ilk are hit by a meteorite or acquire altruism, empathy and rationality (and I know which is by far the more likely) we will leave 31st October with no deal.

If I had a hat I'd really like to be eating it come 1st November when we are still part of the EU, sadly I won't be enjoying that delicacy.
Make some money.

Another UK EU Referendum before end 2020
Brexit Specials
3.00
UK to REVOKE Article 50 in 2019
Brexit Specials
3.75
UK to leave EU with no Brexit Deal before Nov 1st
Brexit Specials
4.00
Another UK EU Referendum before end 2019
Brexit Specials
17.00
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:12 AM   #2682
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
I assure you I am not at all sanguine about the fact that so many people can't be bothered to fulfil their most basic responsibilities as citizens of a democracy. I'm saying I blame them, not the people who take advantage of their wilful ignorance, for the consequences.
And the parties behind the vote have a legal obligation not to blatantly lie, but as the vote was not binding it doesn't actually mean anything anyway. If it was binding its decision would have been thrown out.
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:20 AM   #2683
P.J. Denyer
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
When that information is freely available to anyone who bothers to look for it there is really no excuse for believing obvious lies rather than do so.

No-one who isn't already prejudiced against "foreigners" would believe the bendy bananas BS, or any of the other nonsense Leave voters swallowed whole without making the slightest effort to check was actually true.

You're applying a higher standard to the general public than I think is realistic, most people aren't interested enough to fact check against multiple sources, many more will feel that if a Member of Parliament and a National Newspaper tell them the same thing that is multiple sources, after all "the papers couldn't print it if it wasn't true". I think you're seriously underestimating the effect that literally decades of lies can have, or how cynically the fears of people who felt left behind, or had been hurt by Conservative policies were exploited. Yes there is a rump of hardcore racisits, but overall I don't believe the British public are inherently worse (or better) than anyone else, but I do believe that wholesale unopposed manipulation on this scale works.
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:23 AM   #2684
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I'm really sorry to hear that.

The "no possible downside, only a significant upside" Brexiteers need to hear this kind of thing (not that they'd likely care) to understand the damage that their little "adventure" is already causing.
Yeah, after a heavy session last week a friend of mine (company secretary for a large multinational, pretty secure) started on about how we were going to have to tighten our belts and make some sacrifices to make Brexit a success for the greater good. I don't think he'll ever say anything so stupid around me again....
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:24 AM   #2685
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Very surprised if this isn't rejected by the Supreme Court, prorogation is a matter for parliament not the judiciary.
Court rules prorogation illegal.

Not enough popcorn.
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:28 AM   #2686
P.J. Denyer
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
And the parties behind the vote have a legal obligation not to blatantly lie, but as the vote was not binding it doesn't actually mean anything anyway. If it was binding its decision would have been thrown out.
I find it profoundly depressing that 'not being allowed to tell blatant lies without consequence' is considered too high a bar when it comes to our democracy.
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:31 AM   #2687
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
They did just that. The Parliament legislated the PM needs to ask for another extension until the end of January, if EU sets a different date (or asks for preconditions) Parliament has two (sitting?) days to either accept or reject it. The bill got royal assent just before prorogation.

Therefore if EU agrees to the extension, or at least doesn't reject it outright, UK looks to be Bremaining for a little longer still.

It's not really what one might want, but if EU asks for "either referendum or another general election", Parliament intends to go for the latter anyway, so that should be fine.

McHrozni
No deal is still the default outcome.

All that Parliament has done is to pass a bill to compel the Prime Minister to ask for an extension unless a deal is agreed by 19 October.

If the Prime Minister breaks the law and fails to ask for a deal, he may be sent to prison but there's still nothing on the statute books to prevent a no-deal on 31 October. Parliament may be able to pass something in the remaining days but there's no guarantee that they will be able to agree on something.

If the EU doesn't agree to an extension then the UK crashes out with a no deal.

If the EU agrees to an extension other than 3 months and/or attaches conditions then Parliament would have to agree to this - and there's no guarantee that the fragile no no-deal coalition would stand up to a 2 year extension or a demand for a second referendum or whatever the EU requires.

tl;dr News Youtube about 8 ways Boris Johnson can still get his no-deal

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Last edited by The Don; 11th September 2019 at 03:33 AM.
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Old 11th September 2019, 03:55 AM   #2688
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
No deal is still the default outcome.
Yes, but something will happen first with the express intent of preventing a no deal outcome.

Quote:
If the Prime Minister breaks the law and fails to ask for a deal, he may be sent to prison but there's still nothing on the statute books to prevent a no-deal on 31 October. Parliament may be able to pass something in the remaining days but there's no guarantee that they will be able to agree on something.

If the EU doesn't agree to an extension then the UK crashes out with a no deal.

If the EU agrees to an extension other than 3 months and/or attaches conditions then Parliament would have to agree to this - and there's no guarantee that the fragile no no-deal coalition would stand up to a 2 year extension or a demand for a second referendum or whatever the EU requires.
Again, if Parliament doesn't capitalize on the success.

Quote:
tl;dr News Youtube about 8 ways Boris Johnson can still get his no-deal

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
That channel rocks
If they were only a little less keen on Bercow

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Old 11th September 2019, 04:01 AM   #2689
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Unless Johnson and his ilk are hit by a meteorite or acquire altruism, empathy and rationality (and I know which is by far the more likely) we will leave 31st October with no deal.

If I had a hat I'd really like to be eating it come 1st November when we are still part of the EU, sadly I won't be enjoying that delicacy.
That's my expectation as well.

But Samson was so adamant that a No Deal was impossible, I wanted to know his thoughts about it.
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Old 11th September 2019, 04:11 AM   #2690
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
You're applying a higher standard to the general public than I think is realistic, most people aren't interested enough to fact check against multiple sources, many more will feel that if a Member of Parliament and a National Newspaper tell them the same thing that is multiple sources, after all "the papers couldn't print it if it wasn't true". I think you're seriously underestimating the effect that literally decades of lies can have, or how cynically the fears of people who felt left behind, or had been hurt by Conservative policies were exploited. Yes there is a rump of hardcore racisits, but overall I don't believe the British public are inherently worse (or better) than anyone else, but I do believe that wholesale unopposed manipulation on this scale works.
And it doesn't help that the general public are, to a depressing extent, thick as ****...
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Old 11th September 2019, 04:22 AM   #2691
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
Yeah, after a heavy session last week a friend of mine (company secretary for a large multinational, pretty secure) started on about how we were going to have to tighten our belts and make some sacrifices to make Brexit a success for the greater good. I don't think he'll ever say anything so stupid around me again....
My (leave voting, 81 year old) sister was telling me last week how we coped with rationing after the war, we can cope with it again etc. I said "the difference is that this will be entirely self inflicted". To my surprise this actually seemed to give her pause, and she quickly changed the subject.
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Old 11th September 2019, 04:33 AM   #2692
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https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/...21092500791296

Quote:
The Scottish court has found unanimously that the Prime Minister misled the Queen

In effect, the court has held that Boris Johnson lied to the Queen so as to obtain prorogation

Wow

Just, wow

Not seen a court decision like this in thirty years of constitutional geekery
More in the rest of that thread.

https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/...33869537693696

Quote:
Given the statements from number 10 about not complying with the Scottish court decision, Lord Chancellor
@RobertBuckland
has to consider his position carefully
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1171743709148454913

Quote:
Our judges are renowned around the world for their excellence and impartiality and I have total confidence in their independence in every case.
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Old 11th September 2019, 05:41 AM   #2693
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Thought this might have been brought up by now:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9099461.html

Quote:
The British and Irish governments are both eyeing a return to the EU’s original Brexit backstop plan, rejected by Theresa May, as a way of breaking the deadlock, reports suggest.

The so-called “Northern Ireland-only” backstop was rejected by the former prime minister during talks because it put a customs and regulatory border down the Irish sea – a move strongly opposed by the DUP and many Tories.
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Old 11th September 2019, 05:54 AM   #2694
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
I find it profoundly depressing that 'not being allowed to tell blatant lies without consequence' is considered too high a bar when it comes to our democracy.
Indeed. I can't remember where I read it (probably in a column in The Guardian), but someone found it thoroughly annoying that the UK electoral system basically relies on a gentleman's agreement not to break the rules.

Cummings came in, saw the flaw in that, and exploited it for maximum disruption. And it's clear he's not finished yet, as we've just seen with the 'rogue' prorogation, as well as the leaks that Johnson was planning to ignore the Benn Bill. He's been noted as having a serious grudge against not only the EU, but also the UK political system as a whole, ie. parliament and the civil service.

And, as the column also pointed out, it's remarkable that someone like Cummings, who has been found in contempt of parliament, is now so close to the center of power. Even more remarkable is the fact that he's still avoiding having to answer to parliament.
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Old 11th September 2019, 05:59 AM   #2695
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
For once I agree with Bob. If people choose not to take the time to properly inform themselves about the issues and people they are voting for, and simply swallow the most blatant and transparent of lies simply because they fit with their prejudices, then they have only themselves to blame when they are manipulated into voting against their own interests.
Voters having psychic powers to know which side is lying canít be a requirement for democracy to function. ďThis isnít what we thought, we need to change courseĒ is an essential part of democracy.

I see the attraction to the idea that if you fell for such an obvious lie, you deserved what you got, but everyone makes mistakes from time to time, itís important to allow them the opportunity to correct the. Also, why make everyone suffer for the mistakes of some. Plus, few remainers thought that a no-deal Brexit was something the government would actually aim for, so itís not like they got it right either.
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Old 11th September 2019, 06:07 AM   #2696
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Interesting times. The decision says the prorogation is null so presumably that means Parliament was in effect never prorogued and should be sitting today not withstanding an appeal later.

How this plays out practically I have no idea.
They'll have to dig Black Rod out of her bath chair. A darned nuisance if she's sent all her gear off to the dry cleaners ready for storage until October

What does she do the rest of the year?
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Old 11th September 2019, 06:09 AM   #2697
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Cummings came in, saw the flaw in that, and exploited it for maximum disruption.
It predates Cummings.
This is just more flagrant.

It's a continuation of Thatcher's dismantling of the norms of British politics at the end of the 70s. Not an inevitable outcome, but nothing was put into place to stop it.
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Old 11th September 2019, 06:24 AM   #2698
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An exciting week for Boris

Defeated in 6 votes.
Lost 2 members of his cabinet team and his brother.
Relinquished control of the order paper.
Threatened with the prospect of prison if he ignores legislation.
Lost the case for porogation.
Found to have lied to the Queen.
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Old 11th September 2019, 06:35 AM   #2699
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
An exciting week for Boris

Defeated in 6 votes.
Lost 2 members of his cabinet team and his brother.
Relinquished control of the order paper.
Threatened with the prospect of prison if he ignores legislation.
Lost the case for porogation.
Found to have lied to the Queen.
He also managed to:
  • Have a MP defect to the LibDems in the middle of a debate
  • Reduce his narrow operating majority into a significant deficit by purging his own party
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:10 AM   #2700
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That was last week
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:18 AM   #2701
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Originally Posted by P.J. Denyer View Post
I disagree, if a salesman or advertiser deliberately misleads you and you buy a product based on features you were assured it had, but mislead you have cause for redress. We have advertising standards for a reason. It's shocking that politicians who will run the country are held to a lower standard than car salesmen.
Given that Bobby suffers from libertarianism he'll likely say it was your fault for believing the claims.
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:19 AM   #2702
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Andrea Leadsom this morning: "The worst thing that could happen to me is I could walk out of here and get run over..."

The worst thing for her, yes.

It was also hilarious seeing her try to twist around the suggestion of a border in the Irish Sea by saying that we shouldn't do anything to jeopardise the UK's own internal market. Not like risking the Union breaking up, then?
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:20 AM   #2703
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
That was last week
Oops
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:22 AM   #2704
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
One of the key drivers for Brexit was opposition to (non-white) immigration.

One of the things that inflated non-EU immigration was non-EU students staying after their course was complete. To counter this Theresa May's government introduced rules to prevent this.

The current government is proposing to reverse this (though that's probably a moot point given prorogation) and allow students to stay on for up to two years to find a job.

Personally I don't have a problem with this, but it's interesting that we;re taking control of our borders and non-EU immigration by proposing to open things up:



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49655719

If Migration Watch aren't keen then I'd think it's a good thing.
Indeed.
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:23 AM   #2705
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Originally Posted by ohms View Post
Breaking news: In Scotland, the Court of Session rules proroguing Parliament was unlawful. Now it goes to the UK Supreme Court.
Now that's interesting.

ETA: I see BoJo is refusing to recall parliament to debate the decision.
UKSC hearing is on Tuesday next, decision probably in about two weeks.

Decision based not on usual judicial review but because the prorogation was intended to "stymie parliamentary scrutiny of the executive".

Lord Drummond Young's comments, that "the courts have jurisdiction to decide whether any power, under the prerogative or otherwise, has been legally exercised" is interesting.
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Last edited by catsmate; 11th September 2019 at 07:30 AM.
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:24 AM   #2706
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Andrea Leadsom this morning: "The worst thing that could happen to me is I could walk out of here and get run over..."

The worst thing for her, yes.

It was also hilarious seeing her try to twist around the suggestion of a border in the Irish Sea by saying that we shouldn't do anything to jeopardise the UK's own internal market. Not like risking the Union breaking up, then?
Wait a minute,.... does this mean leaving the EU could be bad for trade?

Has Boris been informed of this???!?!? :O
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:24 AM   #2707
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Originally Posted by Squeegee Beckenheim View Post
It's almost like immigration can be good for a country.
Wait 'till the rest of the EU sends 1.2 million Brits home...
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:33 AM   #2708
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
The Don:
I am amazed you see no deal on the table, there is no chance.
Amongst expats here they see Brexit as dead, unlikely to happen.
They should pay more attention to reality.
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:40 AM   #2709
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Number 10 has refused to enter an election pact with the Brexit Party

Quote:
Boris Johnson will not make an election pact with Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, Downing Street has said.

Mr Farage said his party and the Conservatives should make a deal and "together we would be unstoppable".

Two newspaper adverts set out his offer to help "secure a big Brexit majority" and to "destroy Corbyn's Labour".

But a senior Conservative source said Mr Farage was "not a fit and proper person" and "should never be allowed anywhere near government".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49665789

Given how truthful Boris Johnson has been throughout his entire career, I think this means they are actively pursuing an electoral pact with the Brexit Party.
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:45 AM   #2710
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Very surprised if this isn't rejected by the Supreme Court, prorogation is a matter for parliament not the judiciary.
The grounds for granting the review specifically state that it is not based on usual judicial review (which would have failed) but because the prorogation was intended to "stymie parliamentary scrutiny of the executive". It has good legal lineage.

ETA: The English courts decision has been released in full (24 pages, link). That court ruled that the prorogation was "non justiciable", i.e. outside the purview of the courts. Basically this placed the matter in the separation of power arena, political decisions or "matters of high policy".
The Scottish court actually agreed with this, but decided that this prorogation was an attempt to frustrate parliamentary scrutiny of the executive.

ETA2: Here's the interesting bit in the Scottish decision:
Quote:
It was incumbent on the government to show a valid reason for prorogation, having regard to the constitutional importance of parliamentary scrutiny of executive action. The circumstances, particularly the length, showed that the purpose was to prevent such scrutiny.
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Last edited by catsmate; 11th September 2019 at 07:56 AM.
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:55 AM   #2711
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Well well, Benn is calling for the invocation of the Meeting of Parliament Act of 1797 and a Royal Proclamation to summon parliament.

Even Dominic Grieve (former Conservative AG) has called on BoJo to drop the SC appeal and recall parliament immediately.

Two others (former Conservative AGs, David Gauke and David Lidington) are hitting out at BoJo's accusations of political bias by the Scottish judges.
Expect frantic back-peddling and denials soonest...
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Old 11th September 2019, 07:59 AM   #2712
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Apparently BoJo is going to stage one of his "People’s PMQs" on Facebook later today. Having managed to avoid the real thing by the prorogation.
This should be interesting...
@PeoplesPMQs
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Old 11th September 2019, 08:18 AM   #2713
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Facebook?
How on earth are they planning on controlling that?
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Old 11th September 2019, 08:27 AM   #2714
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
Facebook?
How on earth are they planning on controlling that?
Well last time the "questions" were carefully selected, some were dodged and the farce lasted ten minutes (which was pushing BoJo's attention span). DoCu was just off camera to prompt his master when needed. Though they still misquoted Pericles...
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Old 11th September 2019, 08:44 AM   #2715
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Yeah, the first one was all about selecting questions that allowed Johnson to parrot his usual talking points. So I'd imagine this one will be all about getting Brexit done, respecting the will of the people, etc. They'll probably throw in Cummings' line about the media only talking to the wealthy elite and ignoring the 'real people' who wants Brexit.
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Old 11th September 2019, 08:47 AM   #2716
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
They'll have to dig Black Rod out of her bath chair. A darned nuisance if she's sent all her gear off to the dry cleaners ready for storage until October

What does she do the rest of the year?
Quote:
As well as organising ceremonial events, Black Rod, who can earn up to £93,000 a year, manages a team of 30 staff involved in the day-to-day running of the House of Lords.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49647756
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Old 11th September 2019, 09:01 AM   #2717
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
The grounds for granting the review specifically state that it is not based on usual judicial review (which would have failed) but because the prorogation was intended to "stymie parliamentary scrutiny of the executive". It has good legal lineage.

ETA: The English courts decision has been released in full (24 pages, link). That court ruled that the prorogation was "non justiciable", i.e. outside the purview of the courts. Basically this placed the matter in the separation of power arena, political decisions or "matters of high policy".
The Scottish court actually agreed with this, but decided that this prorogation was an attempt to frustrate parliamentary scrutiny of the executive.

ETA2: Here's the interesting bit in the Scottish decision:
Alas, I am certain the matter dies not fall under the jurisdiction of the ECJ but the irony of an appeal there by Boris would be wonderful.
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Old 11th September 2019, 09:09 AM   #2718
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https://twitter.com/thatginamiller/s...93471889444864

Quote:
Letter sent by my lawyers @mishcondereya to the Goverment and the Speakers of both Houses of Parliament. MPs should return tomorrow until the Supreme Court judgement which is not likely to be handed down until week of the 23rd September at the earliest
Letter embedded in tweet.
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Old 11th September 2019, 09:09 AM   #2719
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Per the Guardian's live politics blog, the "People's PMQ" are more of the same, a chance for Johnson to repeat his usual talking points.

Edit: Some of the softballs being served up for him:
Q: How will you restore faith in politics?
Q: Can you confirm we will leave the EU on 31 October?
Q: Can you confirm the extra money for the NHS will involve real, extra spending?
Q: Are you planning to leave without a deal?

Last edited by KDLarsen; 11th September 2019 at 09:12 AM.
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Old 11th September 2019, 09:11 AM   #2720
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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1171796719157350402

Quote:
I have written to Michael Gove asking for full disclosure of his knowledge of Vote Leave’s illegal payments. If he does not make disclosure, as Secretary of State responsible for data protection, he is breaking the Ministerial Code.
Letter embedded in tweet.
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