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Tags !MOD BOX WARNING! , 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 19th August 2019, 12:17 PM   #481
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Campaigning for redundant votes in urban centers, instead campaigning for the votes she needed to win the election, seems pretty out of step to me. Ignoring the electoral system, and the actual win condition of the campaign, seems pretty out of of step to me. Did she forget which country she was running for president of?
Clinton isn't running. Get over it.
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Old 19th August 2019, 12:29 PM   #482
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Clinton isn't running. Get over it.
Clinton's 2016 loss has lessons for the 2020 candidates.

(•_•)

( •_•)>⌐■-■

(⌐■_■)
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Old 19th August 2019, 12:47 PM   #483
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Crystal ball's linked by CE.
Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Ah. That would be the red herring argument I was referring to. I apologize for attributing it to you.

Krystal Ball wasn't making a "majoritarian argument" (LOL), whatever that nonsense means to you two folks. She and several other journalists who witnessed it first hand spoke out about the Chomskyian circumstances that lead to the bizarre event of "MSM smearing Sanders for saying MSM smearing Sanders".
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Old 19th August 2019, 02:55 PM   #484
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Well you were are wrong. And now you make another false claim.

Good grief. I am not and never have been pro-Sanders. I simply didn't want to wait for Travis before finding out what he was on about.
Huh? I never said you were pro-Sanders.

SG, may I humbly make a suggestion. Next time Travis makes a claim, let him back it up instead of adding to the confusion with all this noise.
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Old 19th August 2019, 03:44 PM   #485
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Krystal Ball wasn't making a "majoritarian argument" (LOL), whatever that nonsense means to you two folks. She and several other journalists who witnessed it first hand spoke out about the Chomskyian circumstances that lead to the bizarre event of "MSM smearing Sanders for saying MSM smearing Sanders".
Her comments about Clinton were majoritarian (rather than a finessed argument about electoral college strength) and were wrong. It is a good thing in that case that executive leadership took reasonable measures to stop dumb commentary.
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Old 20th August 2019, 07:18 AM   #486
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CNN new poll shows Biden with a double digit lead and Harris dropping way down.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/20/polit...und/index.html
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Old 20th August 2019, 08:11 AM   #487
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
CNN new poll shows Biden with a double digit lead and Harris dropping way down.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/20/polit...und/index.html
I think it will eventually come down to Biden vs Sanders/Warren. And Biden will probably edge it as the field thins.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 20th August 2019, 08:13 AM   #488
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I've been calling a Biden/Warren race for months now. We're basically just having a "Old School Moderate Democrat" vs "Progressive 'New Generation' Democrat" referendum at this point and those two seems to be the front runners for those respective camps.
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Old 20th August 2019, 08:38 AM   #489
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I've been calling a Biden/Warren race for months now. We're basically just having a "Old School Moderate Democrat" vs "Progressive 'New Generation' Democrat" referendum at this point and those two seems to be the front runners for those respective camps.
It’s still not clear who the Sanders/Warren bloc will anoint as their flag-bearer. Maybe Warren because it is “her turn” and because she is improving in the polls. But Sanders still has higher poll numbers.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 20th August 2019, 09:52 AM   #490
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Things I read today:

Kamala Harris assures megadonors that she's a capitalist.

Jay Inslee, the candidate who made climate change his issue, is probably going to miss the climate change townhall on CNN due to his miserable polling.

Interesting article on the rather large group of people who say they "don't know" particular candidates (in this case Mayor Pete). They gush a bit about how he's the breakout candidate:

Quote:
Mayor Pete, inarguably the upshot star of the 2020 cycle, is still at 43% “don’t know."
Right now he might be the guy who most outperformed expectations, but he's still stuck in single digits, and he really doesn't have a wide enough lane to run in.
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Old 21st August 2019, 01:07 AM   #491
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As a non-USAian, reding this thread is hilarious. You all claim to be "rugged individualists", and yet you are all so eager to bend over and take it from anyone who wields even the slightest bit of power. Because you sincerely believe that anyone with power must be better than you simply by definition, and you deserve it.

"Oh no, we can't back Sanders, because he actually wants to take power from the rich (who are much better than us, praise be upon them) and give it to us common people".

Pathetic. You people have no clue what "freedom" even means.
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Old 21st August 2019, 01:11 AM   #492
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Also, I predict the following: The Dems will run Sundowning Biden, and he will lose. Four more years of Trump.

And the establishment Dem centristst will be responsible.

I'm sure your children and grandchildren will be very proud of you. Well, at least until they die from heat exposure in the upcoming climate apocalypse that the establishment Dems have no interest in stopping. I mean, they need those donor bucks!
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:07 AM   #493
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Huh? I never said you were pro-Sanders.

SG, may I humbly make a suggestion. Next time Travis makes a claim, let him back it up instead of adding to the confusion with all this noise.
No thanks. If I want to see what someone is on about when they don't post links I shall do so. Here's a suggestion for you, sometimes it's just as easy to search for something as it is to play the 'links' game.

I also suggest you try not to read things into a post that aren't there.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:18 AM   #494
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Biden would win, I just don't know if he will last more than 4 years. Very likely chance his VP will run the second time.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:19 AM   #495
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Biden would win, I just don't know if he will last more than 4 years. Very likely chance his VP will run the second time.
Biden's kind of likeable but... why does he have so much support?
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:41 AM   #496
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Biden's kind of likeable but... why does he have so much support?
Perhaps because after the past three years, a known, establishment figure has certain appeal. And because of Obama's popularity. But mainly because he's perceived to have the best chance of winning.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:42 AM   #497
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Biden's kind of likeable but... why does he have so much support?
His support comes from the perception (with some evidence) that he is the most likely Democrat to unseat Trump.
That's pretty much it.
I have to admit, that is a strong motivator for me. There are other Democratic candidates I would prefer to be President, but more important is the candidates ability to actually become President- as that factor renders all others moot.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:48 AM   #498
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
His support comes from the perception (with some evidence) that he is the most likely Democrat to unseat Trump.
That's pretty much it.
Sounds rather circular, since he's more likely to unseat Trump only if he has more support.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:51 AM   #499
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
Perhaps because after the past three years, a known, establishment figure has certain appeal. And because of Obama's popularity. But mainly because he's perceived to have the best chance of winning.
This.

The Dems are overestimating how much "new" the voter base wants.

He's polling at a double digit, hell near literally double, what his closet challenger is at.

Either listen to your voter base or tell them "no we like this person, that's who we are running, suck it up we know what's best."
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:53 AM   #500
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Biden's not likeable, he's just perceived as being the bland vanilla option. Not many people would pick vanilla as their own favorite ice cream flavor, but if they were hosting a party and had to have just one flavor of ice cream a lot of people would choose to serve vanilla on the unreasoned assumption that it would be a lowest common denominator and thus acceptable to other people. Nobody, even his own wife, prefers Biden: they are just gambling that enough people will find him sufficiently tolerable.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:54 AM   #501
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Originally Posted by Lambchops View Post
As a non-USAian, reding this thread is hilarious. You all claim...
I thought the US had the monopoly on brushes that broad, what with all the repaving required for 8 lane freeways.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:54 AM   #502
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
No thanks. If I want to see what someone is on about when they don't post links I shall do so. Here's a suggestion for you, sometimes it's just as easy to search for something as it is to play the 'links' game.
Wrong. The person making the claim can back it up. I’m not searching to substantiate someone else’s claim.

You can do what you want.


Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I also suggest you try not to read things into a post that aren't there.
Then lead by example. You’ve claimed two things I haven’t done.
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Old 21st August 2019, 05:56 AM   #503
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Biden's not likeable, he's just perceived as being the bland vanilla option. Not many people would pick vanilla as their own favorite ice cream flavor, but if they were hosting a party and had to have just one flavor of ice cream a lot of people would choose to serve vanilla on the unreasoned assumption that it would be a lowest common denominator and thus acceptable to other people. Nobody, even his own wife, prefers Biden: they are just gambling that enough people will find him sufficiently tolerable.
That's not the a totally meaningless quality when it comes to politics.

60% of voters going "meh" is better then 40% shrieking like girls at Beatles concert.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:00 AM   #504
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Not many people would pick vanilla as their own favorite ice cream flavor?
Really? I would.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:04 AM   #505
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
That's not the a totally meaningless quality when it comes to politics.

60% of voters going "meh" is better then 40% shrieking like girls at Beatles concert.
If 60% isn't enough to win the election then it works out to the same thing anyway. It's always a gamble anyway, so why not go all out? Considering Trump's unpopularity with the left this would be a pretty opportune time to not restrict it to questionably "safe" mediocrity.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:05 AM   #506
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
This.

The Dems are overestimating how much "new" the voter base wants.

He's polling at a double digit, hell near literally double, what his closet challenger is at.

Either listen to your voter base or tell them "no we like this person, that's who we are running, suck it up we know what's best."
I don’t think “The Dems” are over or underestimating anything right now, hence the high number of candidates in the lead. And it is premature to crown Biden as “the choice of the voter base” even though he is the front-runner given that he is still only polling at around 25-30%. Sanders and Warren make up a larger number when combined and they are running on platforms that are largely indistinguishable.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:09 AM   #507
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
If 60% isn't enough to win the election then it works out to the same thing anyway. It's always a gamble anyway, so why not go all out? Considering Trump's unpopularity with the left this would be a pretty opportune time to not restrict it to questionably "safe" mediocrity.
Because the idea that moderates are less important then extreme Democrats is frankly absurd and I don't why that's the narrative the Democrats keep trying to sell that as the narrative.

Scenario 1: The Democrats nominate a safe, milquetoasts, run of the mill, "Human Personification of a early 1990s Beige Volvo Station Wagon" candidate.

Scenario 2: The Democrats nominate a more progressive, forward thinking, more "to the left" candidate.

The idea that somehow Scenario 1 leads to more people voting for Trump in 2020 makes... no... sense.

Nominate Biden. Put one of the "New Generation" Dems as has VP. That's the start of a good long term politically dynasty.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:15 AM   #508
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Because the idea that moderates are less important then extreme Democrats is frankly absurd and I don't why that's the narrative the Democrats keep trying to sell that as the narrative.

Scenario 1: The Democrats nominate a safe, milquetoasts, run of the mill, "Human Personification of a early 1990s Beige Volvo Station Wagon" candidate.

Scenario 2: The Democrats nominate a more progressive, forward thinking, more "to the left" candidate.

The idea that somehow Scenario 1 leads to more people voting for Trump in 2020 makes... no... sense.

Nominate Biden. Put one of the "New Generation" Dems as has VP. That's the start of a good long term politically dynasty.
The risk isn't that would-be Sanders or Warren voters would vote for Trump over Biden, the risk is that they'd just not vote at all, or vote third party.

And "safe, milquetoast, run of the mill" is a terrible way to live. That's how people end up with boring Betty instead of feisty Veronica. Life is risk! Go for what you truly want because it's better to try for greatness and fail than to settle for mediocrity!
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:19 AM   #509
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The risk isn't that would-be Sanders or Warren voters would vote for Trump over Biden, the risk is that they'd just not vote at all, or vote third party.
Hillary didn't lose the ultra-liberal dense urban cores in 2016, she lost the "Blue Wall" Rust Belt. Those people are going to take to Biden a lot more then Warren.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:20 AM   #510
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
And "safe, milquetoast, run of the mill" is a terrible way to live. That's how people end up with boring Betty instead of feisty Veronica. Life is risk! Go for what you truly want because it's better to try for greatness and fail than to settle for mediocrity!
Not when what we're risking is 4 more years of Trump.

I'm not trading that so the Democrats can create and maintain a power fantasy where the reason they lost in '16 was they just weren't Democrat enough.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:25 AM   #511
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Hillary didn't lose the ultra-liberal dense urban cores in 2016, she lost the "Blue Wall" Rust Belt. Those people are going to take to Biden a lot more then Warren.
What are you basing that on? Biden's not much different than Clinton, and will be receiving even more of a Republican slander assault than she did because this time Trump's got more time to Tweet.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:30 AM   #512
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Not when what we're risking is 4 more years of Trump.

I'm not trading that so the Democrats can create and maintain a power fantasy where the reason they lost in '16 was they just weren't Democrat enough.
What I'm saying is that the so-called "safe" course of Biden actually is riskier than Warren. Clinton was the "safe" one last time and lost. Now that Trump's had a term in and alienated so many I think more people who wouldn't otherwise vote for Warren will, versus the number of people who wouldn't normally vote Same Old Democrat Plod will decide to choke down Biden.

I don't think Trump won because the majority want Extreeem Republican Crazy, I think he won because more people were fed up with the status quo than not. A middle-road Democrat is a return to the status quo.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:32 AM   #513
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
What are you basing that on?
*Confused* The fact that... that's what happened.

Quote:
Biden's not much different than Clinton, and will be receiving even more of a Republican slander assault than she did because this time Trump's got more time to Tweet.
Listen we can't play the "Republicans are going to slander them card." That's gonna happen regardless.

Trump knows what's at stake here. He knows if he loses the Presidency or the Republicans lose the Senate there is a very, very real chance he's going to prison.

2016 ain't gonna have nothing on 2020 for how dirty an election can get. No matter what candidate they go for the Democrats better let their balls drop before then.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:37 AM   #514
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
*Confused* The fact that... that's what happened.
I mean what makes you think they'll vote for Biden this time?

Quote:
Listen we can't play the "Republicans are going to slander them card." That's gonna happen regardless.

Trump knows what's at stake here. He knows if he loses the Presidency or the Republicans lose the Senate there is a very, very real chance he's going to prison.

2016 ain't gonna have nothing on 2020 for how dirty an election can get. No matter what candidate they go for the Democrats better let their balls drop before then.
My point is that Biden's going to be just as hard to sell as Clinton was, and Clinton lost. Everything you've suggested has been "we should do exactly what we tried last time even though it didn't work". How many more iterations are you willing to go through following the "sensible" course to failure?
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:48 AM   #515
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
The risk isn't that would-be Sanders or Warren voters would vote for Trump over Biden, the risk is that they'd just not vote at all, or vote third party.



And "safe, milquetoast, run of the mill" is a terrible way to live. That's how people end up with boring Betty instead of feisty Veronica. Life is risk! Go for what you truly want because it's better to try for greatness and fail than to settle for mediocrity!
TragicMonkey: I want an exciting president!

2016 Voters: Hold my beer.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:51 AM   #516
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I mean what makes you think they'll vote for Biden this time?



My point is that Biden's going to be just as hard to sell as Clinton was, and Clinton lost. Everything you've suggested has been "we should do exactly what we tried last time even though it didn't work". How many more iterations are you willing to go through following the "sensible" course to failure?
There is an undeniable difference: Clinton had been demonized for decades, in a way that no other candidate has experienced. There was/is a hatred for her that is semi-unique.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:52 AM   #517
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
TragicMonkey: I want an exciting president!

2016 Voters: Hold my beer.
Not exactly. I want a good president, one worth having. Not another shifty hypocritical plutocrat to serve the banks. Biden's is a boring sort of evil. A facade of dullness is a useful mask. Warren may be an idealist and her ideas may not work but she does seem to be honest about them and willing to try.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:53 AM   #518
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I mean what makes you think they'll vote for Biden this time?
You had a Blue Wall of states, basically the Democrats one big stronghold of "safe" states outside of the West Coast and the Northeast, that had voted in the Presidential Election for the Democratic Candidate going back to I wanna say 1992 (might have been 96 for a few of them)

In 2016 three of those states went Red, a major factor (perhaps "the" major factor) in her losing the election.

Those states didn't go Red because Hillary Clinton wasn't liberal enough. That makes no sense.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:56 AM   #519
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Originally Posted by varwoche View Post
There is an undeniable difference: Clinton had been demonized for decades, in a way that no other candidate has experienced. There was/is a hatred for her that is semi-unique.
True, but that hatred was held by the people that wouldn't have voted Democrat regardless. What does it matter if a person loathes Clinton and only mildly dislikes Biden if they're going to vote for Trump anyway? It's like how the depth of a lake doesn't matter to someone floating on the surface, whether it's ten feet deep or a thousand they're at the same elevation.
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Old 21st August 2019, 06:59 AM   #520
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
You had a Blue Wall of states, basically the Democrats one big stronghold of "safe" states outside of the West Coast and the Northeast, that had voted in the Presidential Election for the Democratic Candidate going back to I wanna say 1992 (might have been 96 for a few of them)

In 2016 three of those states went Red, a major factor (perhaps "the" major factor) in her losing the election.

Those states didn't go Red because Hillary Clinton wasn't liberal enough. That makes no sense.
It does if the reason was a lower left-inclined voter turnout.
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