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Old 23rd November 2020, 08:51 AM   #3161
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About the effectiveness of the Oxford vaccine (guess that belongs in this thread, not the other one?): based on the numbers in the BBC article, the overall 70% is pretty robust statistically, but the 90% figure for the lower-dosed subgroup isn't. It looks like reasonable confidence that the true figure for the subgroup is >70%, but not much confidence that it's >80%, say.

For those who know about such things: is there a plausible mechanism why the lower dose might be more effective? (Specifically, the difference is 1/2 dose followed by full does, vs 2 full doses.) The BBC reporting seems to say they weren't expecting this (perhaps they were only testing this regime in the hope that the lower dose is also enough). If there is no plausible mechanism for it, it may just be a statistical fluke.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 08:54 AM   #3162
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Also, a general question: with a bunch of different vaccines, are there circumstances in which you would give the same person more than one? E.g., if you have a cheap, quick to rollout 70% effective one, and a 95% effective one in limited supply, it looks as though you might try to vaccinate everybody with the first, and follow up with the second as and when it's available. But maybe on general principles you expect the first to `cancel' the second. Or maybe not; if the first `fails', does that mean no immune response so you can try again? I'm guessing there's a wide range of different possible scenarios, but maybe some/many are obviously implausible to experts.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 09:49 AM   #3163
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
That's a fair point, but the emphasis on a new treatment is all wrong. If a better treatment can save a handful of lives then that's great. But that's all it's going to be needed for if this is done right.

Actually, if this is done right, we should have solid herd immunity by June.

I note that herd immunity doesn't protect everybody. The very effective measles vaccine has been used almost universally since the 1960s, but some children -- particularly among the anti-vaxxers -- contract measles every year. There are reports that a substantial percentage of Americans won't get a covid vaccine. They will continue to be a threat to themselves and everybody around them. This thing won't disappear overnight.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 09:53 AM   #3164
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The measles vaccine had produced herd immunity in many countries before Wakefield sabotaged that, and since the virus hadn't been eradicated worldwide, when vaccination rates dropped these communities were vulnerable to re-infection.

There are ways of handling this, including restrictions on what unvaccinated people can do and where they can go. It's also possible that the herd immunity threshhold for covid is significantly less than for measles (it's very high indeed for measles). Certainly giving up and saying "it can't be done so there's no point in trying" at this stage is ridiculous.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 10:03 AM   #3165
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The measles vaccine had produced herd immunity in many countries before Wakefield sabotaged that, and since the virus hadn't been eradicated worldwide, when vaccination rates dropped these communities were vulnerable to re-infection.

There are ways of handling this, including restrictions on what unvaccinated people can do and where they can go. It's also possible that the herd immunity threshhold for covid is significantly less than for measles (it's very high indeed for measles). Certainly giving up and saying "it can't be done so there's no point in trying" at this stage is ridiculous.
(I'm being facetious here.) "Well, you have a choice. You can get the vaccine, or a brand on the forehead of a circled "V" with a slash through it."
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Old 23rd November 2020, 10:14 AM   #3166
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The measles vaccine had produced herd immunity in many countries before Wakefield sabotaged that, and since the virus hadn't been eradicated worldwide, when vaccination rates dropped these communities were vulnerable to re-infection.

There are ways of handling this, including restrictions on what unvaccinated people can do and where they can go. It's also possible that the herd immunity threshhold for covid is significantly less than for measles (it's very high indeed for measles). Certainly giving up and saying "it can't be done so there's no point in trying" at this stage is ridiculous.

Nobody's saying "It can't be done." The point is that herd immunity won't be perfect immunity, especially not in the first years, and we need to be prepared for it. And in a nation where masks are a hot-button political issue, there is zero chance that restrictions on the unvaccinated could be imposed.

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Old 23rd November 2020, 11:00 AM   #3167
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid...4?guccounter=1

This year, the Southern Hemisphere saw a historically inactive flu season with ďvirtually no influenza circulation,Ē according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The reason for this, infectious disease experts say, lies in how similarly COVID-19 and the flu are transmitted and, therefore, prevented. The viruses primarily spread in the same ways. Thanks to all the precautions in place for the coronavirus ó like mask-wearing, physical distancing, school closures and teleworking ó the flu never really struck this year down under, compared to previous flu seasons.


Very few Covid-19 infections also have influenza. CDC's testing is around 0.2%. Well under the 1 to 2% normal in the off season let alone the 10-30% during a normal flu season.
Thank you for providing a source... I guess there will always be out-lairs; if this was a world-wide trend, it can be considered on it's way to extinction but a first-time targeted exception cannot be established as a norm.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 11:08 AM   #3168
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
Thank you for providing a source... I guess there will always be out-lairs; if this was a world-wide trend, it can be considered on it's way to extinction but a first-time targeted exception cannot be established as a norm.
Agreed. The flu will be back. Most likely in the 2021-22 season in the Northern Hemisphere. It's currently suppressed only because it has a lower R than Covid-19 and the NPIs that have kept Covid-19's R from .8 to 1.3 dropped flu below 1. Once the Covid-19 vaccine is widely used NPIs will relax. Eventually dropping completely. We won't see that in the USA/EU this winter/spring but likely in a year.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 11:09 AM   #3169
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Like this:

https://www.cnn.com/2014/10/27/healt...rsy/index.html

"New York, New Jersey and Illinois say anyone returning from having direct contact with Ebola patients in West Africa will have to be quarantined for 21 days."
I did not make my point clear; I needed to say quarantined in a collective (nation/world) fashion. I appreciate you making the effort to provide an example, having said that, I find it very interesting that only 3 states instituted a quarantine and the rest did not. What made these 3 incorporate this restriction could be enlightening to other states.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 11:58 AM   #3170
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
There are ways of handling this, including restrictions on what unvaccinated people can do and where they can go.
Flying on QANTAS internationally is one of the things people won't be able to do.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...tion-no-travel

I'd be surprised if this didn't become the norm, and not just by airlines. Rest homes should ban visits by unvaccinated people, and at least in NZ, safe work requirements mean that employers should insist on workers in contact with others be vaccinated.

If people don't want to be vaccinated, that's their right, but that right doesn't include access to places where other people are, and they can go **** themselves if they don't like it.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 12:10 PM   #3171
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
I did not make my point clear; I needed to say quarantined in a collective (nation/world) fashion. I appreciate you making the effort to provide an example, having said that, I find it very interesting that only 3 states instituted a quarantine and the rest did not. What made these 3 incorporate this restriction could be enlightening to other states.
You specifically said this:
"Nothing selective I said exactly that... the States are the only authority to quarantine people. I asked for an example within the past 50 years where it was done. I totally understand State's Rights."

You asked for examples of States. Those were examples. Those states had a few people coming in that might have been exposed while in Africa. Hence they took precautions. While very deadly, it was clear pretty early that Ebola was difficult to spread outside of direct physical contact. Had it popped up anywhere near like Covid-19 safe bet every state would have imposed strong measures. Probably the Feds too legal authority aside. Look what was done to Americans of Japanese descent in 1941. SCOTUS even ruled it legal.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 02:43 PM   #3172
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Countries will eliminate the virus by intelligent vaccination campaigns at different rates, and compulsory travel vaccination is going to become quite a big thing. From the way people here are talking, the USA is going to be one of the last countries to achieve elimination. Welcome to international pariah status.

If a sufficiently high proportion of the population is vaccinated within say a four-month window, there is no reason why herd immunity shouldn't be achieved pretty quickly and elimination with it. Aided by a continuation of surveillance, contact tracing and isolation until that is achieved.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:02 PM   #3173
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Countries will eliminate the virus by intelligent vaccination campaigns at different rates, and compulsory travel vaccination is going to become quite a big thing. From the way people here are talking, the USA is going to be one of the last countries to achieve elimination. Welcome to international pariah status.

If a sufficiently high proportion of the population is vaccinated within say a four-month window, there is no reason why herd immunity shouldn't be achieved pretty quickly and elimination with it. Aided by a continuation of surveillance, contact tracing and isolation until that is achieved.
Exactly - the basic mechanics of epidemics are well-understood. The complexities are hard. But a first-approximation is pretty reasonable.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 03:50 PM   #3174
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Here's a study that shows zero correlation between D levels and Covid-19 infections nor with racial differences in covid-19 rates which are quite large in the UK. (between 2x and 5x).

However, it's based on D measurements of 500k people 10 to 14 years ago and positive covid-19 tests this year. Presumably these would correlate with levels today. They also used a fairly low threshold, 10ng/L.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...71402120301156

Quote:
We found no evidence that (25(OH)D) explains susceptibility to COVID-19 infection, either overall or between ethnic groups.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 06:32 PM   #3175
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
However, it's based on D measurements of 500k people 10 to 14 years ago and positive covid-19 tests this year.
Appears to be based on a rather large assumption, which wouldn't make it great science.
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Old 23rd November 2020, 07:18 PM   #3176
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Appears to be based on a rather large assumption, which wouldn't make it great science.
Yeah. Looks sketchy to me too. A decade plus is a rather long interval.Also time of year the samples were taken is not known and likely changes D levels uncorrelated with when they got covid.
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Old 24th November 2020, 07:20 PM   #3177
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Originally Posted by Meridian View Post
About the effectiveness of the Oxford vaccine (guess that belongs in this thread, not the other one?): based on the numbers in the BBC article, the overall 70% is pretty robust statistically, but the 90% figure for the lower-dosed subgroup isn't. It looks like reasonable confidence that the true figure for the subgroup is >70%, but not much confidence that it's >80%, say.
I looked at the press release but I'm not seeing the underlying data. I assume that will become available in due time.

Like, of the 131 positive tests, what was the breakdown by subgroup?

Quote:
For those who know about such things: is there a plausible mechanism why the lower dose might be more effective? (Specifically, the difference is 1/2 dose followed by full does, vs 2 full doses.) The BBC reporting seems to say they weren't expecting this (perhaps they were only testing this regime in the hope that the lower dose is also enough). If there is no plausible mechanism for it, it may just be a statistical fluke.
It may be a fluke. But, it's possible that the vaccine can be tweaked, perhaps by adding an adjuvant, to make it even more effective. A proposed explanation (guess really) is that giving the half dose first allows the second full dose to be more effective, i.e., to stimulate a more robust immune response.

I imagine that by experimenting with different dosing regimens and possibly adding an adjuvant that the effectiveness can possibly be further improved. The adjuvant may add to the cost a bit, as this is apparently cheaper than the mRNA vaccines. It's better in terms of price and no need for special freezer equipment. Unfortunately this would also require more testing, and more time, if the formula or dosing is changed.
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Old 24th November 2020, 07:59 PM   #3178
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Here's Dr. John Campbell's latest video analyzing the press release on the Oxford vaccine, if anyone is interested:
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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Old 25th November 2020, 03:09 AM   #3179
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
I looked at the press release but I'm not seeing the underlying data. I assume that will become available in due time.

Like, of the 131 positive tests, what was the breakdown by subgroup?



It may be a fluke. But, it's possible that the vaccine can be tweaked, perhaps by adding an adjuvant, to make it even more effective. A proposed explanation (guess really) is that giving the half dose first allows the second full dose to be more effective, i.e., to stimulate a more robust immune response.

I imagine that by experimenting with different dosing regimens and possibly adding an adjuvant that the effectiveness can possibly be further improved. The adjuvant may add to the cost a bit, as this is apparently cheaper than the mRNA vaccines. It's better in terms of price and no need for special freezer equipment. Unfortunately this would also require more testing, and more time, if the formula or dosing is changed.
Provided the regulators agree that the numbers are statistically significant they will probably go with whichever regimen produces the best results. Sure it can be tweaked later, but by then there may be better vaccines - particularly for the booster shots which are likely to be needed.
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Old 25th November 2020, 07:01 AM   #3180
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You can't just add an adjuvant to a vaccine that wasn't designed to have an adjuvant in the first place. Live vaccines don't have adjuvants, only inactivated ones.
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Old 25th November 2020, 07:54 AM   #3181
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A comprehensive guide to current vaccine research:
Quote:
Researchers are testing 55 vaccines in clinical trials on humans, and at least 87 preclinical vaccines are under active investigation in animals.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...e-tracker.html
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Old 25th November 2020, 08:47 AM   #3182
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
You can't just add an adjuvant to a vaccine that wasn't designed to have an adjuvant in the first place. Live vaccines don't have adjuvants, only inactivated ones.
Ah, I didn't know that. Thanks for the correction.

I hope there's a way to improve the efficacy somehow. Maybe it has to do with the doses and timings.

I seem to recall that some of the other vaccines under development are going for a single dose, but I wonder if that would be as effective. It's intriguing to me that a smaller dose might actually work better in some cases.
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Old 25th November 2020, 09:57 AM   #3183
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It's complicated. Live vaccines usually only need a single dose, killed vaccines usually need two doses, but there are exceptions on both sides. Live vaccines do not have adjuvants (like quil-A or aluminium hydroxide) or preservatives (like thiomersal), killed vaccines almost invariably do. DNA/RNA vaccines behave more like live vaccines, subunit vaccines behave like killed vaccines.

Vaccine development is a very advanced science and the optimum approach will eventually be found. I'm wary of adjuvants because most of the trouble surrounding vaccines seems to be down to adjuvants, but I'm assured the ones being used in the coronavirus vaccines are tried and tested and safe. (A new souped-up adjuvant caused one hell of a lot of trouble and a large number of dead calves ten years or so ago - google "Pregsure" - so everyone is hyper-aware of that one.)

In a vaccine race like this there will be winners and losers, but the fact that there are multiple vaccines in development is good news both for availability and for the likelihood of several very good candidates emerging. However this disease is such that even a less-than-ideal level of protection is likely to make all the difference to the elimination strategy so I'm really not worried whatever. If developed first world countries have not completely eliminated this virus within their borders by the end of 2022 (actually they should be able to do it by the end of 2021) then someone is grossly negligent.
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Old 25th November 2020, 12:04 PM   #3184
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This is odd - the amazingly disproportionate death toll among Filipino nurses in USA.

Making up 4% of all nurses in USA, they make up 30% of nurses who have died of Covid.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/24/h...ths/index.html
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Old 25th November 2020, 06:54 PM   #3185
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Today marks a new record daily death total being set for six consecutive weeks.

12,000

And probably a higher number tomorrow.
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Old 25th November 2020, 07:09 PM   #3186
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Apparently the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was planned to be a single-dose regimen, but they are starting a second clinical trial that will test a 2-dose regimen too.

https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-...cine-candidate

The announcement came on Nov. 15th, so maybe Pfizer's announcement had something to do with it.

Quote:
November 15, 2020 -- The Phase 3 ENSEMBLE study of the single-dose regimen of JNJ-78436735, the investigational vaccine candidate for the prevention of COVID-19 being developed by the Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies of Johnson & Johnson, continues to enroll and vaccinate study participants. ENSEMBLE is proceeding to enroll up to 60,000 participants worldwide.

In addition to the single-dose regimen ENSEMBLE study, Janssen has now initiated the two-dose regimen ENSEMBLE 2 trial. ENSEMBLE 2 is a complementary, planned, pivotal, large-scale, multi-country Phase 3 trial that will study the safety and efficacy of a two-dose regimen of the investigational Janssen vaccine candidate for the prevention of COVID-19 in up to 30,000 participants worldwide. The ENSEMBLE and ENSEMBLE 2 trials will run in parallel.

While a potentially safe and effective single-dose preventive COVID-19 vaccine would have significant benefits, particularly in a pandemic setting, Janssen’s COVID-19 vaccine program has been designed to be extremely thorough and driven by science. As such, we are investigating multiple doses and dosing regimens to evaluate their long-term efficacy.

The Phase 3 ENSEMBLE and ENSEMBLE 2 trials follow positive interim results from the Company’s ongoing Phase 1/2a clinical study, which is studying the safety profile and immunogenicity of both a single-dose and two-dose vaccination. The interim analysis showed that a single dose of the COVID-19 vaccine candidate induced a robust immune response and was generally well-tolerated.

PHASE 3 ENSEMBLE 2 STUDY

The Phase 3 ENSEMBLE 2 study (NCT04614948) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial designed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of a two-dose vaccine regimen versus placebo in adults 18 years old and older with and without comorbidities associated with an increased risk for severe COVID-19. The study will assess efficacy of the investigational vaccine after both the first and second dose to evaluate protection against the virus and potential incremental benefits for duration of protection with a second dose.
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Old 25th November 2020, 07:55 PM   #3187
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
USA numbers were off by two days, 7 day average deaths hit 1001 last Sunday (a few days previously). Today it's at 1028. 17% increase in 7 days. Cases/day increasing more rapidly over the last week than previous weeks. This will turn into deaths in a few weeks. Likely at 1200 or more per day in another week. While death rates are currently lower than the peak in April, hospitalizations are now higher having climbed sharply.

It's going to be a long winter.
Worldometers now (Nov 25) has the 7 day moving average for the USA at 1708 deaths per day. Roughly doubled in the last month. Cases continuing to rise, higher death rates will follow. The rate of increase in cases has slowed however positive test percentages are increasing so that may be more of an indication of test shortages than a decrease in rate of infections. Lot of people on the move tomorrow for Thanksgiving, a big holiday and time to get together here in the USA. Won't see the effect, if any, on cases for another week.

Pretty big seasonal effect.
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Old 25th November 2020, 09:41 PM   #3188
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
This is odd - the amazingly disproportionate death toll among Filipino nurses in USA.

Making up 4% of all nurses in USA, they make up 30% of nurses who have died of Covid.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/24/h...ths/index.html

The link includes several reasonable explanations:

Quote:
One possible factor, according to a research team she's working with: the places where Filipino nurses are more likely to work.

"The major finding...was that Philippine-trained nurses were disproportionately in the ICUs, the emergency rooms, in long-term care facilities such as nursing homes, compared to White, US-trained nurses. They were therefore much more exposed to Covid-19," says Jennifer Nazareno, the co-founder and co-director of the Philippine Health Initiative for Research, Service, and Training at Brown University's School of Public Health.

They're also more likely to live in multi-generational households, caring for more dependents. And often, she says, they're breadwinners supporting family members in the United States and the Philippines. That means they may be more likely to stay in high-stress jobs that put them more at risk.
.....

Cortez, the president of National Nurses United, shared another theory with CNN. She says Filipino nurses are less likely to question authority and speak up even if, for example, they fear their employers aren't providing them with adequate protective equipment. That's especially true, she says, when they've come to the United States on work visas.

"A lot of them will not question authority so that they will not be at odds with their employer, because they're always afraid that one wrong move, the employer can revoke their work permit and send them back to the Philippines," she says.

So they're working harder in more dangerous and potentially abusive conditions.

Last edited by Bob001; 25th November 2020 at 09:43 PM.
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Old 25th November 2020, 10:50 PM   #3189
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I hope the countries which are considering relaxing restrictions for Christmas will be watching what happens in the US after Thanksgiving carefully.
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Old 26th November 2020, 06:22 AM   #3190
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
I hope the countries which are considering relaxing restrictions for Christmas will be watching what happens in the US after Thanksgiving carefully.
Yes. Given that spikes tend to lag spreading events by a couple of weeks, by the week of December 14-18 we should see if there's a a larger than normal rise in the case loads in the States.
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Old 26th November 2020, 02:17 PM   #3191
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We have now officially eliminated the virus in the Australian state of Victoria, with only South Australia and Queensland (I think) failing to meet the 28 day of zero community transmissions criteria. The whole country will soon be rid of covid. Of cause infections will happen again as quarantine of visitors will not be perfect, but Iím convinced we now have the capacity to control new cases.

Anyone who says lockdowns and other restrictions donít work is a fool.
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Old 26th November 2020, 02:25 PM   #3192
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The Australian state of Victoria has officially eliminated the virus in the Australian state of Victoria, with only South Australia and Queensland (I think) failing to meet the 28 day of zero community transmissions criteria. The whole country will soon be rid of covid. Of cause infections will happen again as quarantine of visitors will not be perfect, but Iím convinced we now have the capacity to control new cases.
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Old 26th November 2020, 02:26 PM   #3193
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
We have now officially eliminated the virus in the Australian state of Victoria, with only South Australia and Queensland (I think) failing to meet the 28 day of zero community transmissions criteria. The whole country will soon be rid of covid. Of cause infections will happen again as quarantine of visitors will not be perfect, but I’m convinced we now have the capacity to control new cases.

Anyone who says lockdowns and other restrictions don’t work is a fool.
The problem for many is affordability. Australia has mineral wealth, New Zealand had a very low debt to GDP ratio.
Not to say that Europe and the states could not have done it, but India and South America? Not so sure.

More political than science, but without the money the science is hard to do.

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Old 26th November 2020, 03:12 PM   #3194
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
We have now officially eliminated the virus in the Australian state of Victoria, with only South Australia and Queensland (I think) failing to meet the 28 day of zero community transmissions criteria. The whole country will soon be rid of covid. Of cause infections will happen again as quarantine of visitors will not be perfect, but Iím convinced we now have the capacity to control new cases.

Anyone who says lockdowns and other restrictions donít work is a fool.
I don't think people say it doesn't work. People say it's not worth it.
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Old 26th November 2020, 03:57 PM   #3195
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
I don't think people say it doesn't work. People say it's not worth it.
Actually some people do say it doesn't work.

Why Australia Will Fare Worst from COVID-19 — Lockdowns Don’t Work
Quote:
The basic premise of a lockdown, as the World Health Organisation acknowledged, is to buy time for other solutions. It is not a way of dealing with the virus...

So, let’s count the costs.

How many people will start businesses when the prospect of a lockdown looms?

How many businesses will hire new workers?

How many multinational corporations will invest in Australia when the government can impose lockdowns?
You see, multinational corporations will avoid Australia in favor of countries with no restrictions, which aren't being so ravaged by the virus as a result that they will never even consider locking down. Yes, right now multinational corporations are flocking to Antarctica, expecting to find thousands of willing workers and a thriving economy untainted by the virus!

And because multinational corporations won't exploit invest in Australia anymore, the Aussies are screwed big time,

Quote:
I remember February, when the virus didn’t seem to matter. Then it spectacularly sunk markets.... this time we have a far larger shock. So what do you think the consequences might be?
...
This chain reaction is what makes debt so dangerous. It’s why a debt crisis is contagious and the word contagion is used to describe it.
Lockdowns don't just not work, they actually spread contagion (of the financial kind) which will destroy your retirement funds and therefore kill you! What's the point of locking down to protect retired folk, if the lockdown kills you before even get to retire?
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Old 26th November 2020, 09:13 PM   #3196
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Evidence Builds That an Early Mutation Made the Pandemic Harder to Stop
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/24/w...-mutation.html


SARS-CoV-2 D614G variant exhibits efficient replication ex vivo and transmission in vivo
https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abe8499

Side note: Also learned about Luciferase. Very illuminating.
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Old 27th November 2020, 02:55 PM   #3197
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Relationship between the density of tatami stores and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Japan

Study indicates that wearing/or removal of shoes could impact COVID-19 transmission.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-112449/v1

"The tatami culture in Japan, including the practice of always removing one’s shoes before stepping onto a tatami mat, persists to the present day. Given this background, this study aimed to develop a shoe-related transmission model and enhance COVID-19 transmission-route precautions by investigating the association between the prevalence of COVID-19 and both population density and the distribution of tatami stores in each prefecture in Japan."


"The number of COVID-19 cases and deaths increased by 0.547 (95% CI:0.542–0.553) and 0.498 (95% CI: 0.475–0.521)."
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Old 27th November 2020, 03:24 PM   #3198
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
We have now officially eliminated the virus in the Australian state of Victoria, with only South Australia and Queensland (I think) failing to meet the 28 day of zero community transmissions criteria. The whole country will soon be rid of covid. Of cause infections will happen again as quarantine of visitors will not be perfect, but Iím convinced we now have the capacity to control new cases.

Anyone who says lockdowns and other restrictions donít work is a fool.
Australia is doing a great job fighting thr Virus,but right now they are getting a break countries in the Northern Hemisphere don't have" It's summer down there. Current surge is largely due to the coming of cold weather.
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Old 27th November 2020, 03:33 PM   #3199
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Relationship between the density of tatami stores and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Japan
Or, more importantly:

Quote:
We previously reported that there were significantly fewer deaths associated with COVID-19 relative to population size in countries that follow the cultural practice of removing shoes when going indoors compared with those that do not
We had a thread a while back about wearing shoes in houses, and it's a rare thing here - people expect other people to take their dog-turd-chewing-gum-Bombay-oyster-covered footwear off when coming inside.

Interesting theory - and your link didn't work for me, but this seems to the study at a different url: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-112449/v1
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Old 27th November 2020, 03:46 PM   #3200
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Or, more importantly:

We had a thread a while back about wearing shoes in houses, and it's a rare thing here - people expect other people to take their dog-turd-chewing-gum-Bombay-oyster-covered footwear off when coming inside.

Interesting theory - and your link didn't work for me, but this seems to the study at a different url: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-112449/v1
We don't need no stink'in shoes.

Thanks for the link. Mine was for the pdf but doesn't appear to work now so I edited and used yours. Same study.

I consider it highly speculative. There are lots of differences culturally in that province beyond wearing shoes inside. But it is an interesting data point and one largely ignored.
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