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Old 8th December 2020, 07:51 AM   #1
JoeMorgue
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The 2020 Swing States, how they went, guesses to how they will go moving forward.

As our numbers become more solid, 538 has a good breakdown of how the swing (and other competative) states performed in 2020 versus 2016 (and earlier trends.)

Some key takeaways.

The "Blue Wall" (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn) states have been moving into the Red for several election cycles now, peaking in 2008 to Trump narrowly taking all 3 of them only for them to narrowly swing back to blue for Biden. Time will tell if this is a trend or an anomaly. I'm also wondering if all 3 states will stay so consistent in how much they mirror each other.

Arizona and Georgia voted blue for the first time decades. Both states have been moving more blue since 2008. Georgia might have been due to the impact COVID is having there an Arizona might be a case of "Hey maybe openly taunting and insulting the dead hero of a state I needed to win wasn't the best idea" but both states seem to be moving in a more blue direction even before either of those factors.

North Carolina and Texas both continue to move toward the blue side, although both went red this election. Texas turning blue is one of those Holy Grails of Democrat politics for obvious reasons. Both the symbolic nature and EC count nature of such a win would be enormous.

Florida (possibly the only state where Trump did meaningfully better than in 2016) seem to be moving more toward the Red. Florida is such an odd duck to try and "moneyball" politically because basically unlike the "educated urban versus uneducated rural" divide that makes most other "Red States" or "Blue States" red or blue, Florida is waves of old retirees filling out retirement communities across the states versus waves of Latin American Immigrants making up a significant chunk of their big cities. I'm guessing that Florida doesn't have as many "White Liberal" strongholds as other states and from what I'm hearing the Cuban and other immigrants in the traditionally blue strongholds of Miami and surrounding areas

Colorado and Virginia might be safe blue states at this point, as well as Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Ironically the two perennial swing states; Ohio and Iowa, barely moved their needles at all.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/
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Old 8th December 2020, 08:51 AM   #2
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I think Georgia swung a long way due to the efforts by Stacey Abrams to register voters. It's what happens when you get rid of the voter suppression that has been going on (although they are back at it for the runoff election, eliminating early voting sites).
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Old 8th December 2020, 11:41 AM   #3
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Keep in mind a lot of politics are local;state and local issues might well be the deciding factor in many races rather then the big national issues.
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Old 8th December 2020, 11:59 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
I think Georgia swung a long way due to the efforts by Stacey Abrams to register voters. It's what happens when you get rid of the voter suppression that has been going on (although they are back at it for the runoff election, eliminating early voting sites).
I agree. I wonder what the GOP is doing to make sure that doesn't spread to other southern states.

I have little confidence in the DNC, but I hoe there is someone there that realizes how huge of an impact Ms Abrams had on this election and is trying to figure out ways to replicate her success.
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Old 8th December 2020, 12:00 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Keep in mind a lot of politics are local;state and local issues might well be the deciding factor in many races rather then the big national issues.
Agreed. Voter suppression is almost always local.
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Old 8th December 2020, 12:06 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
I agree. I wonder what the GOP is doing to make sure that doesn't spread to other southern states.

I have little confidence in the DNC, but I hoe there is someone there that realizes how huge of an impact Ms Abrams had on this election and is trying to figure out ways to replicate her success.
So the hero of 2020 is a politician who refused to accept the legitimacy of an election that they lost and made baseless fraud claims?
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Old 8th December 2020, 12:31 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by Dr. Keith View Post
Agreed. Voter suppression is almost always local.
I see my point flew right past you.
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Old 8th December 2020, 01:20 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I see my point flew right past you.
You saw very little, then.
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Old 8th December 2020, 01:47 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So the hero of 2020 is a politician who refused to accept the legitimacy of an election that they lost and made baseless fraud claims?
Calling Trump hero is somewhat over the top, but yeah, the main protagonist of 2020 is indeed "a politician who refused to accept the legitimacy of an election that they lost and made baseless fraud claims".
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Old 8th December 2020, 05:04 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So the hero of 2020 is a politician who refused to accept the legitimacy of an election that they lost and made baseless fraud claims?
Yep, describes Trump to a tee!
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Old 8th December 2020, 06:00 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Calling Trump hero is somewhat over the top...
Trump's a hero to the likes of Brainster, and that's the only necessary qualification. He attracts people who desire heroes. Biden, of course, is no hero.
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Old 8th December 2020, 08:19 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
So the hero of 2020 is a politician who refused to accept the legitimacy of an election that they lost and made baseless fraud claims?
Except for the fact that she did accept the results of the election within a week of the election recounts, and the claims of voter disenfranchisement weren't baseless, you are almost right.
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Old 9th December 2020, 08:23 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
Trump's a hero to the likes of Brainster, and that's the only necessary qualification. He attracts people who desire heroes. Biden, of course, is no hero.
If you think I consider Trump a hero, you really haven't been paying attention. Both he and Biden are jackasses, similar actually in that phony macho way.

And gee, everyone seems to have missed that I was making fun of Trump along with Abrams. Lighten up folks, he'll be gone in 6 weeks.
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:14 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
Both he and Biden are jackasses
Every time I see someone saying "both sides are as bad", I see supporter of side that shares majority, if not all of blame.
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:22 PM   #15
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Saying "Trump and Biden are both jackasses" is basically equivalent to saying "Ted Bundy and Martha Stewart are both criminals."
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:28 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Keep in mind a lot of politics are local;state and local issues might well be the deciding factor in many races rather then the big national issues.
I think that used to be very much true. But more and more it seems like the federal elections, and especially the presidential are the focal point for most voters. Pretty much the only local/state issues that I ever discussed with anyone was COVID and the way the state and city were handling it. What they did right and wrong.
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Old 9th December 2020, 12:38 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
As our numbers become more solid, 538 has a good breakdown of how the swing (and other competative) states performed in 2020 versus 2016 (and earlier trends.)

Some key takeaways.

The "Blue Wall" (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn) states have been moving into the Red for several election cycles now, peaking in 2008 to Trump narrowly taking all 3 of them only for them to narrowly swing back to blue for Biden. Time will tell if this is a trend or an anomaly. I'm also wondering if all 3 states will stay so consistent in how much they mirror each other.

Arizona and Georgia voted blue for the first time decades. Both states have been moving more blue since 2008. Georgia might have been due to the impact COVID is having there an Arizona might be a case of "Hey maybe openly taunting and insulting the dead hero of a state I needed to win wasn't the best idea" but both states seem to be moving in a more blue direction even before either of those factors.

North Carolina and Texas both continue to move toward the blue side, although both went red this election. Texas turning blue is one of those Holy Grails of Democrat politics for obvious reasons. Both the symbolic nature and EC count nature of such a win would be enormous.

Florida (possibly the only state where Trump did meaningfully better than in 2016) seem to be moving more toward the Red. Florida is such an odd duck to try and "moneyball" politically because basically unlike the "educated urban versus uneducated rural" divide that makes most other "Red States" or "Blue States" red or blue, Florida is waves of old retirees filling out retirement communities across the states versus waves of Latin American Immigrants making up a significant chunk of their big cities. I'm guessing that Florida doesn't have as many "White Liberal" strongholds as other states and from what I'm hearing the Cuban and other immigrants in the traditionally blue strongholds of Miami and surrounding areas

Colorado and Virginia might be safe blue states at this point, as well as Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Ironically the two perennial swing states; Ohio and Iowa, barely moved their needles at all.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/
Trump isn't a conservative, he's a populist. He won in 2016 and got dangerously close in 2020 because he figured out what to say to get a segment of the population to vote for him without alienating many of the actual conservative voters. Just how he did that, and how so many people continue to have the "wool pulled over their eyes" will be the subject of a small library of books.

If the GOP goes back to their old ways, and nominates someone like Rubio it'll be a landslide Dem victory. Guns and God aren't enough anymore to entice enough working class people to vote against their own good on economic policy, globalism etc. If they nominate another Trump like candidate (and I strongly suspect they will) we'll just have a virtual repeat of 2016/2020. Dems easily win the popular vote, but he electoral vote will come down to very slim contests in the blue wall stats plus Georgia, NC, and Arizona. Florida, Ohio, and Iowa are lost causes for the Dems.

Why did the blue wall states go so blue in 2008, the economy there was in free fall. Another 4 years of GOP leadership that was in power for 8 was just not going to happen.

Last edited by lobosrul5; 9th December 2020 at 12:43 PM.
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Old 9th December 2020, 10:38 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Except for the fact that she did accept the results of the election within a week of the election recounts, and the claims of voter disenfranchisement weren't baseless, you are almost right.
Is that where he was going? Bit off track, to say the least.
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Old 9th December 2020, 11:35 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Brainster View Post
If you think I consider Trump a hero, you really haven't been paying attention. Both he and Biden are jackasses, similar actually in that phony macho way.
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