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Tags Coronavirus , diseases

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Old 18th August 2020, 06:41 PM   #1201
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
They just announced new total lockdown for hawaii. Except for in person churches.

Welcome to the left hook of the bible belt
Holy crap, that's an amazing level of stupidity. We know for certain - thanks mostly to South Korea - that churches can be enormous spreaders of the disease.
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Meanwhile, NZ is looking brighter after only finding five new cases today, all from the existing cluster.

120,000 tests conducted this week, most of them in Auckland, with over 5% of the city tested and only a handful of cases.

Very promising, but still early days.
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Old 18th August 2020, 11:16 PM   #1202
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I look at that as basically a very sarcastic and accurate peer review of that hydroxychloroquine paper which set it all off.

"Due to limited resources and fundings, only two push-scooters (one very old,
one brand new) were available. The old, rusty push-scooter was randomly attributed to participants in the control group. "


"So, we decided not to count him as a death and rather excluded him from analysis; we counted him as having voluntarily decided to discontinue the treatment."


Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The other bad news is, the death toll could be horrible - you have one of the most susceptible populations and I note that with NZ's current outbreak being in the Polynesian community, the hospitalisation rate is 10%, way higher than the first infections.
I think that seems to chime with New Orleans' black population.

And Hawaii?

I wonder... Are the non-white Hawaiians also churchgoers?
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Old 19th August 2020, 02:35 AM   #1203
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Maybe Ardern understands herd immunity in the sense promoted by Rolfe and others


Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said he intended to make the country's vaccine, once available, "as mandatory as you can possibly make it".

In New Zealand, experts have sounded concerns the country might not reach an uptake level ideally needed to be as high as 80 per cent if too many Kiwis are fearful.


Asked today if she intended to take a stance as strong as Morrison, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern suggested not.

"We haven't done that to date because we've actually been able to get the kind of take-up we need to provide herd immunity ... and I have every expectation we'll be able to do that in New Zealand without needing a mandate."

Behind paywall

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12357996
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Old 19th August 2020, 02:52 AM   #1204
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I'm taking "herd immunity" to mean that you need vaccination, but you can't avoid new people being born who get the disease without being vaccinated and gain "natural immunity", thus the herd is immune.

This is Google's default answer:

"herd immunity
noun
the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.
"the level of vaccination needed to achieve herd immunity varies by disease"


https://www.google.com/search?q=herd...=herd+immunity
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Old 19th August 2020, 03:21 AM   #1205
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post


I think that seems to chime with New Orleans' black population.

And Hawaii?

I wonder... Are the non-white Hawaiians also churchgoers?

In most places, it seems to be a question of crowded public transport, working conditions and living spaces. But we do know that church services can be super-spreader events, of course. One of the latest flare-ups in South Korea is "tied to Sarang Jeil Church, described as a sect by more mainstream Christians."
South Korea warns of new mass infection after church flare-up (TheEdgeMarkets, Aug. 17, 2020)
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Old 19th August 2020, 03:38 AM   #1206
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Herd immunity, until the start of this year, meant a sufficiently high take-up of vaccine that the disease agent died out in the population. Yes some of the effect will be from natural infection if the disease has been active recently (I was never vaccinated against measles but my immunity from having caught measles as a child nevertheless contributes to herd immunity in my community) but it's impossible to get to the elimination point without a vaccine for various reasons we discussed earlier.

Measles is an interesting case in point. Nearly everybody caught it before the vaccine was available. At my travel health consultation before the Big Cruise the consulting nurse said they just assume everyone born before about 1970 has had measles and so doesn't require a vaccine. I had measles getting on for 60 years before that consultation, and yet I still didn't need a vaccine. My post-infection immunity was deemed to be adequate. Did measles die out in the population before the vaccine? No it didn't, not even in a population where it managed to infect almost everyone. Along comes the vaccine and herd immunity is reached. No more measles until that cretin Wakefield and his destructive theories let it back in. Interestingly it takes something like 95% uptake to get herd immunity for measles I believe, but it only started coming back again when rates fell to around 50% to 60%. I think that was because it doesn't just need enough people to be susceptible, it needs the virus to be re-introduced, and so many communities had eliminated it that it took some time before a re-introduction happened and got going.

I only came across this "herd immunity is when R <1" some time like last week. People seem to have been redefining this all over the place. There's a huge confusion between two quite different situations. What do the "herd immunity" proponents (I mean the false herd immunity supposedly possible without a vaccine) actually expect the situation to be once their goal is reached?

Graham Medley was particularly deceptive about this. In that infamous TV interview he spoke about isolating all the vulnerable people, then having "a good-going epidemic" among the young and healthy (quickly skipping over the likelihood that this would still kill tens of thousands of the young and healthy) and then it would be safe to let the vulnerable people mix with society again. That was an absolute lie. He had also admitted at the start of the interview that the position at the end of his "good-going epidemic" would be endemic disease. The potential for a huge epidemic spike that would overwhelm the health service would be gone, but the virus would still be there. Any vulnerable person that mixes freely in society with endemoc covid in there is likely to regret it.

There are three stages to this. First we have the virus hitting a completely naive population with the inevitable result (absent a lockdown) that an epidemic spike rapidly occurs. That's what the politicians don't want because it generates bad headlines of people dying en masse and hospitals overwhelmed with sick people. The next stage, if the virus is allowed to "move through the population" is that enough people are protected by post-exposure immunity to prevent the huge epidemic surge. The virus is still there, people still get sick and die, but as a slower and more constant rate that doesn't overwhelm the health service and doesn't upset the politicians. And without a vaccine this will go on essentially forever.

Endemic disease tends to come in waves, as bubonic plague did for centuries after the big "Black Death" epidemic, but people get used to it and start coping. That seems to be what the "herd immunity" gang were aiming for. Not no virus and no deaths and no danger, but no (or relatively few) bad headlines. The deception was in using the herd immunity term, as that is (or was until this year) generally used to describe the third stage of progression, the elimination of the infectious agent from the population, which is only achievable with a vaccine. It's only at that third stage that vulnerable people become safe from infection and can mix in society.

It's difficult to know exactly how covid would progress in countries that don't eliminate it by public health methods (TeTrIs), in the absence of a vaccine. Hopefully we won't have to find out. But it's probably not like measles. Measles generates long-lasting immunity so the susceptible group is the young people. Every so often there would be a mini-epidemic among the children and then it would go dormant for a bit before hitting the next lot in their turn. That's how endemic disease works and endemic measles was bad enough. But covid has two big differences. One is that older people now didn't have the chance to catch it when they were young and very unlikely to die, so they would be extremely vulnerable in a society with endemic covid. The other is that post-exposure covid immunity seems unlikely to be life-long and may only be measured in months. This means that the supply of new victims isn't limited to new children as in the case of measles, but also includes previous victims whose immunity has waned. Not an enticing prospect.

The deception has been accomplished by using the term "herd immunity" to describe, not the third stage of elimination (with a vaccine), but the second stage of endemic disease. All this will be over if we can just achieve herd immunity! But what do they mean by "over"? They mean the rapidly-growing exponential epidemic spikes that generate the bad headlines about overwhelmed hospitals will be over, that's what they mean. But at the same time they were allowing the inference that "over" meant that the danger to individuals, especially vulnerable individuals, would be over. No, that danger is never over with endemic disease. Infectious agents don't just "one day disappear like magic" all on their own, although they may go dormant for a little while. The enthusiastic herd immunity proponents don't seem to realise this. "Just let a lot of people get it and a lot of people die and then we'll be safe." No we won't. We'll have endemic covid and your granny will still be at constant risk of catching it.
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Old 19th August 2020, 03:39 AM   #1207
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
In most places, it seems to be a question of crowded public transport, working conditions and living spaces. But we do know that church services can be super-spreader events, of course. One of the latest flare-ups in South Korea is "tied to Sarang Jeil Church, described as a sect by more mainstream Christians."
South Korea warns of new mass infection after church flare-up (TheEdgeMarkets, Aug. 17, 2020)
Also, in Victoria, if I'm remembering a broadcast from last week correctly, 80% of our recorded deaths are in aged care facilities.

I'm worried about someone I know and love who has to go into one soon and who so far hasn't had the virus.
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Old 19th August 2020, 08:13 AM   #1208
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Herd immunity, until the start of this year, meant a sufficiently high take-up of vaccine that the disease agent died out in the population. Yes some of the effect will be from natural infection if the disease has been active recently (I was never vaccinated against measles but my immunity from having caught measles as a child nevertheless contributes to herd immunity in my community) but it's impossible to get to the elimination point without a vaccine for various reasons we discussed earlier.
No, it’s always meant that R < 1.

Vaccination is how we want to make this happen because if you just let it happen on it’s own you end up with overshoot and a disease that hangs around at some endemic level so people still get it and suffer the heath consequences.
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Measles is an interesting case in point. Nearly everybody caught it before the vaccine was available. At my travel health consultation before the Big Cruise the consulting nurse said they just assume everyone born before about 1970 has had measles and so doesn't require a vaccine. I had measles getting on for 60 years before that consultation, and yet I still didn't need a vaccine. My post-infection immunity was deemed to be adequate. Did measles die out in the population before the vaccine? No it didn't, not even in a population where it managed to infect almost everyone.
Measles isn’t a good comparison because its R0 is absurdly high, nor did it ever completely die out or we wouldn’t need a vaccine anymore. Estimated value for R0 for Influenza is 1.5-1.7. For Covid-19 it’s 2.0-2.5. For measles, it’s ~15 and it doesn’t even require close contact because it’s a true airborn virus. In theory, you can get measles simply by walking though a room an infected person had been in an hour before.

Again, go take a look at the web site I linked to and play with the models at bit. It’s not completely intuitive but “flattening the curve” doesn’t just reduce the peak infections for a disease like COVID-19 it can reduce the total number of infections as well. A vaccine is much better but if you can get the number of active infections low enough (via lockdown), ubiquitous mask use and exhaustive contact tracing can keep infections to a very low level almost indefinitely. This is how China has more or less returned to normal even without vaccine.
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Old 19th August 2020, 10:54 AM   #1209
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post




I think that seems to chime with New Orleans' black population.

And Hawaii?

I wonder... Are the non-white Hawaiians also churchgoers?
White and non white. It tends to be the older members of the high density multigenerational households most like to be there on any sunday. Some cultures tend to have all show up, like samoans, where philipinos and hawaiians, its mostly the oldest grandparents and the youngest grandchildren. Japanese, chinese and koreans don't tend to go. White churches are mostly the hype based prosperity gospel things so the older members are there for MLM and the younger are there for Youth Velocity type things. White attendance is somewhere in between the hawaiians and the north east asians I would guess.
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Old 19th August 2020, 04:44 PM   #1210
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
As I posted in another thread:

"The daily figures will therefore change to show three figures for deaths now (for England): as before, deaths of those who have tested positive, deaths within 28 days of a positive test (for direct comparison with Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland), and deaths within 60 days of a positive test. It's my understanding that the intention is for all the countries to standardise on the 60 day measure as being a reasonable compromise."

I'm not sure about that, but you may be right.

There's another set of figures which are produced by the ONS, for England, which are based on what the death certificate says, which is not related to test results (necessarily).
Geeze, 60 days is even dumber than I imagined. Thats is 59 days to get run over by a bus. Or for high risk patients on blood thinners, bump your head and die of a brain bleed. Is dying with the symptoms of Covid even required?

And now they are calling it a circulatory/coronary disease. Next will be a calcium disease, and Osteoporotics will die of covid too, and broken hips will be caused by covid? By brother is on his last gasp of chemo, will his death be chalked up to covid?

When will it become "The swab test was negative, he must have died of the un-diagnosed Covid" ?

It's getting to be a non-falsifiable diagnosis.

But wait, a Covid vaccine will make us all IMMORTAL!
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Old 19th August 2020, 05:02 PM   #1211
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Geeze, 60 days is even dumber than I imagined. Thats is 59 days to get run over by a bus. Or for high risk patients on blood thinners, bump your head and die of a brain bleed. Is dying with the symptoms of Covid even required?

And now they are calling it a circulatory/coronary disease. Next will be a calcium disease, and Osteoporotics will die of covid too, and broken hips will be caused by covid? By brother is on his last gasp of chemo, will his death be chalked up to covid?

When will it become "The swab test was negative, he must have died of the un-diagnosed Covid" ?

It's getting to be a non-falsifiable diagnosis.

But wait, a Covid vaccine will make us all IMMORTAL!
Since, in most countries, actual deaths have exceeded historical deaths during the covid-19 pandemic, one can pretty much surmise that covid-19 deaths have been undercounted rather than overcounted by being conflated with deaths from other causes. For example the first known Covid-19 death in the USA was a woman in her 50's in Santa Clara in early Feb. She died at home after being sick and rapidly getting worse. Her death was not counted as a Covid-19 death since she hadn't been tested. It was only discovered to be Covid-19 after her family pestered the coroner to have her tissues tested months after she had died.
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Old 19th August 2020, 06:04 PM   #1212
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Update from NZ - the hotel worker who contracted Covid "mysteriously" is no longer a mystery.

He used a lift shortly after the infected person at the hotel and is presumed to be transfer of viral material from the lift controls.

The other cluster remains unexplained.
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Old 19th August 2020, 06:13 PM   #1213
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This is why when I'm working from work I carry a dead pen in my pocket alongside the functional one. It's there specifically to poke lift buttons.
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Old 19th August 2020, 06:27 PM   #1214
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
This is why when I'm working from work I carry a dead pen in my pocket alongside the functional one. It's there specifically to poke lift buttons.
I've also seen sellers on eBay selling key/loop-shaped gadgets for opening doors and pressing buttons.
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Old 19th August 2020, 06:27 PM   #1215
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Update from NZ - the hotel worker who contracted Covid "mysteriously" is no longer a mystery.

He used a lift shortly after the infected person at the hotel and is presumed to be transfer of viral material from the lift controls.

The other cluster remains unexplained.
Who says?
A lot of viral particles in a confined air space far more likely.
I have no evidence but this is a fascinating contest of ideas.

Link

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12358172
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Old 19th August 2020, 06:51 PM   #1216
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Who says?
Bloomfield. It's in your own link.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
A lot of viral particles in a confined air space far more likely.
I have no evidence but this is a fascinating contest of ideas.
Entirely irrelevant, however.

He got it is all that matters. At this stage, it looks like he didn't infect anyone else, so that's good.

I remain unconvinced as long as they're not testing asymptomatic people. We know for certain there are at least 9 times more asymptomatic cases than symptomatic, so I'm not betting on it.
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Old 19th August 2020, 08:09 PM   #1217
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Bloomfield. It's in your own link.



Entirely irrelevant, however.

He got it is all that matters. At this stage, it looks like he didn't infect anyone else, so that's good.

I remain unconvinced as long as they're not testing asymptomatic people. We know for certain there are at least 9 times more asymptomatic cases than symptomatic, so I'm not betting on it.
Hehehehehe Bloofield the anti masker. Of course he sees virus on an electronic lift button touched for a nanosecond.
Ridiculously overpaid incompetent civil servant.

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Old 20th August 2020, 12:05 AM   #1218
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Since, in most countries, actual deaths have exceeded historical deaths during the covid-19 pandemic, one can pretty much surmise that covid-19 deaths have been undercounted rather than overcounted by being conflated with deaths from other causes. For example the first known Covid-19 death in the USA was a woman in her 50's in Santa Clara in early Feb. She died at home after being sick and rapidly getting worse. Her death was not counted as a Covid-19 death since she hadn't been tested. It was only discovered to be Covid-19 after her family pestered the coroner to have her tissues tested months after she had died.
Indeed, and this is well known.

Similarly in the UK. Note how the Excess deaths exceed, but follow the COVID-19 deaths.


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Old 20th August 2020, 12:33 AM   #1219
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Herd immunity, until the start of this year, meant a sufficiently high take-up of vaccine that the disease agent died out in the population. Yes some of the effect will be from natural infection if the disease has been active recently (I was never vaccinated against measles but my immunity from having caught measles as a child nevertheless contributes to herd immunity in my community) but it's impossible to get to the elimination point without a vaccine for various reasons we discussed earlier.

Measles is an interesting case in point. Nearly everybody caught it before the vaccine was available. At my travel health consultation before the Big Cruise the consulting nurse said they just assume everyone born before about 1970 has had measles and so doesn't require a vaccine. I had measles getting on for 60 years before that consultation, and yet I still didn't need a vaccine. My post-infection immunity was deemed to be adequate. Did measles die out in the population before the vaccine? No it didn't, not even in a population where it managed to infect almost everyone. Along comes the vaccine and herd immunity is reached. No more measles until that cretin Wakefield and his destructive theories let it back in. Interestingly it takes something like 95% uptake to get herd immunity for measles I believe, but it only started coming back again when rates fell to around 50% to 60%. I think that was because it doesn't just need enough people to be susceptible, it needs the virus to be re-introduced, and so many communities had eliminated it that it took some time before a re-introduction happened and got going.

I only came across this "herd immunity is when R <1" some time like last week. People seem to have been redefining this all over the place. There's a huge confusion between two quite different situations. What do the "herd immunity" proponents (I mean the false herd immunity supposedly possible without a vaccine) actually expect the situation to be once their goal is reached?

Graham Medley was particularly deceptive about this. In that infamous TV interview he spoke about isolating all the vulnerable people, then having "a good-going epidemic" among the young and healthy (quickly skipping over the likelihood that this would still kill tens of thousands of the young and healthy) and then it would be safe to let the vulnerable people mix with society again. That was an absolute lie. He had also admitted at the start of the interview that the position at the end of his "good-going epidemic" would be endemic disease. The potential for a huge epidemic spike that would overwhelm the health service would be gone, but the virus would still be there. Any vulnerable person that mixes freely in society with endemoc covid in there is likely to regret it.

There are three stages to this. First we have the virus hitting a completely naive population with the inevitable result (absent a lockdown) that an epidemic spike rapidly occurs. That's what the politicians don't want because it generates bad headlines of people dying en masse and hospitals overwhelmed with sick people. The next stage, if the virus is allowed to "move through the population" is that enough people are protected by post-exposure immunity to prevent the huge epidemic surge. The virus is still there, people still get sick and die, but as a slower and more constant rate that doesn't overwhelm the health service and doesn't upset the politicians. And without a vaccine this will go on essentially forever.

Endemic disease tends to come in waves, as bubonic plague did for centuries after the big "Black Death" epidemic, but people get used to it and start coping. That seems to be what the "herd immunity" gang were aiming for. Not no virus and no deaths and no danger, but no (or relatively few) bad headlines. The deception was in using the herd immunity term, as that is (or was until this year) generally used to describe the third stage of progression, the elimination of the infectious agent from the population, which is only achievable with a vaccine. It's only at that third stage that vulnerable people become safe from infection and can mix in society.

It's difficult to know exactly how covid would progress in countries that don't eliminate it by public health methods (TeTrIs), in the absence of a vaccine. Hopefully we won't have to find out. But it's probably not like measles. Measles generates long-lasting immunity so the susceptible group is the young people. Every so often there would be a mini-epidemic among the children and then it would go dormant for a bit before hitting the next lot in their turn. That's how endemic disease works and endemic measles was bad enough. But covid has two big differences. One is that older people now didn't have the chance to catch it when they were young and very unlikely to die, so they would be extremely vulnerable in a society with endemic covid. The other is that post-exposure covid immunity seems unlikely to be life-long and may only be measured in months. This means that the supply of new victims isn't limited to new children as in the case of measles, but also includes previous victims whose immunity has waned. Not an enticing prospect.

The deception has been accomplished by using the term "herd immunity" to describe, not the third stage of elimination (with a vaccine), but the second stage of endemic disease. All this will be over if we can just achieve herd immunity! But what do they mean by "over"? They mean the rapidly-growing exponential epidemic spikes that generate the bad headlines about overwhelmed hospitals will be over, that's what they mean. But at the same time they were allowing the inference that "over" meant that the danger to individuals, especially vulnerable individuals, would be over. No, that danger is never over with endemic disease. Infectious agents don't just "one day disappear like magic" all on their own, although they may go dormant for a little while. The enthusiastic herd immunity proponents don't seem to realise this. "Just let a lot of people get it and a lot of people die and then we'll be safe." No we won't. We'll have endemic covid and your granny will still be at constant risk of catching it.
Whilst broadly I agree with what you say, I have a couple of quibbles. Bubonic plague is a very poor example, it is a zoonotic disease of rodents that is vector spread, sustained person to person transmission does not occur. Primarily what you get is an epizoonotic outbreak in rats which fleas spread to humans. The first sign of plague is finding dead rats. The herd immunity if it occurred would be in the rat population. A better example might be polio or smallpox. A second quibble is that herd immunity probably occurs naturally, but because it has happened we no longer see the infection or know about it as it has ceased to exist. An example might be English sweating disease that naturally disappeared, this was a major cause of death in Tudor England but spontaneously disappeared. Herd immunity may occur in flu, which is why we constantly see new antigenic forms of flu that evade herd immunity, but old strains disappear probably due to herd immunity.

There is no doubt that politics is important in disease control, we could adopt the same sort of aggressive contact tracing approaches for TB and HIV, where we have effective post exposure prophylaxis, and move towards eradication instead we are prepared to except over a million deaths a year from both diseases despite the fact they are effectively curable. It is not surprising that people would consider the same approach for covid-19 as we have accepted for HIV, TB and even flu (where we focus vaccination on the vulnerable, instead of a population based approach).
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Old 20th August 2020, 12:40 AM   #1220
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
No, it’s always meant that R < 1.

Vaccination is how we want to make this happen because if you just let it happen on it’s own you end up with overshoot and a disease that hangs around at some endemic level so people still get it and suffer the heath consequences.


Measles isn’t a good comparison because its R0 is absurdly high, nor did it ever completely die out or we wouldn’t need a vaccine anymore. Estimated value for R0 for Influenza is 1.5-1.7. For Covid-19 it’s 2.0-2.5. For measles, it’s ~15 and it doesn’t even require close contact because it’s a true airborn virus. In theory, you can get measles simply by walking though a room an infected person had been in an hour before.

Again, go take a look at the web site I linked to and play with the models at bit. It’s not completely intuitive but “flattening the curve” doesn’t just reduce the peak infections for a disease like COVID-19 it can reduce the total number of infections as well. A vaccine is much better but if you can get the number of active infections low enough (via lockdown), ubiquitous mask use and exhaustive contact tracing can keep infections to a very low level almost indefinitely. This is how China has more or less returned to normal even without vaccine.
Flattening the curve also reduces mortality, both by stopping health services becoming overwhelmed, and allowing time for therapeutic advances. Already mortality in hospital is substantially reduced because we now know early use of steroids in those with covid-19 pneumonia saves lives, awareness of the high risks of blood clots and early treatment and prevention etc. So flattening the curve does not just spread the same number of deaths over a longer period. It leads to a fall in mortality rate. Even the risk to highly vulnerable is reduced because we now know who they are, have routine testing of e.g. care home staff to reduce the introduction of the infection to care homes and better awareness of infection control principles and use of PPE.
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Old 20th August 2020, 12:48 AM   #1221
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Can someone give me the skinny on sweden? Now even the people who were criticizing sweden are saying they are doing fine
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Old 20th August 2020, 01:11 AM   #1222
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Hehehehehe Bloofield the anti masker. Of course he sees virus on an electronic lift button touched for a nanosecond.
Ridiculously overpaid incompetent civil servant.
So the 5 second rule applies to Covid-19 too?
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Old 20th August 2020, 01:17 AM   #1223
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Can someone give me the skinny on sweden? Now even the people who were criticizing sweden are saying they are doing fine
Depends what you mean by Ďfineí. Better than the USA and UK, yes; worse than surrounding countries, though.
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Old 20th August 2020, 02:07 AM   #1224
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"University of Sydney behavioural scientist Julie Leask, an expert in vaccine hesitancy and refusal, [...] questioned [Prime Minister] Mr Morrison's claim that 95 per cent of the population must be vaccinated - saying this was based on measles, which was more infectious than COVID-19 - and that herd immunity could be achieved through 40 to 80 per cent of the population receiving the vaccine".

- Sydney Morning Herald.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...19-p55nal.html
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Old 20th August 2020, 02:15 AM   #1225
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Bear in mind that it was a lift button that was identified as the initial transmission event in the original SARS epidemic. Fomite transmission indoors from a heavily-contaminated surface (such as a lift button pressed only minutes previously by someone with snot on his fingers) is an entirely plausible means of transmission and I'd be surprised if it didn't happen, even if only occasionally.

I think aerosolising the airspace within a lift is a lot more problematic. Yes it's a small air space but people aren't in there for long. You'd have to have quite a severe coughing fit to do it, I think, and then the chances are that the aerosol would dissipate fast when the lift doors opened. Also, how long would the second person be breathing the aerosolised atmosphere in the lift? It takes more than a few breaths to get an infective dose from an aerosolised airspace, as the number of virus particles in the small aerosol droplets is small. I've seen half an hour estimates.

But fomite or aerosol, it's a good object lesson that being around people who are virus-positive is really not a good idea even if you observe the 2-metre distance. I think this one was touch transfer, wash your hands people.
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Old 20th August 2020, 02:16 AM   #1226
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
"University of Sydney behavioural scientist Julie Leask, an expert in vaccine hesitancy and refusal, [...] questioned [Prime Minister] Mr Morrison's claim that 95 per cent of the population must be vaccinated - saying this was based on measles, which was more infectious than COVID-19 - and that herd immunity could be achieved through 40 to 80 per cent of the population receiving the vaccine".

- Sydney Morning Herald.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...19-p55nal.html

I agree the 95% thing is measles and this isn't so infectious. 80% could do it I suspect. 40%? In your dreams.
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Old 20th August 2020, 02:17 AM   #1227
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
Can someone give me the skinny on sweden? Now even the people who were criticizing sweden are saying they are doing fine

There's an entire thread on Sweden in the Social Issues and Current Affairs subforum. Go there for all your detailed Swedish requirements.
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Old 20th August 2020, 06:05 AM   #1228
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Endemic disease tends to come in waves, as bubonic plague did for centuries after the big "Black Death" epidemic, but people get used to it and start coping. That seems to be what the "herd immunity" gang were aiming for. Not no virus and no deaths and no danger, but no (or relatively few) bad headlines. The deception was in using the herd immunity term, as that is (or was until this year) generally used to describe the third stage of progression, the elimination of the infectious agent from the population, which is only achievable with a vaccine. It's only at that third stage that vulnerable people become safe from infection and can mix in society.
The current UK government seems very driven by headlines. It wouldn't shock me to find that they're going for "no bad headlines" and having had such a huge spike earlier in the year means that the ongoing death rate can be quite high but still not look too bad by comparison.

I think they're currently comfortable with "now vs then" comparisons because it puts them in a not too bad light. They don't want UK vs other country comparisons because that puts them in a bad light (apart from a handful of countries who have done an even worse job of managing the pandemic).
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Old 20th August 2020, 08:15 AM   #1229
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Since, in most countries, actual deaths have exceeded historical deaths during the covid-19 pandemic, one can pretty much surmise that covid-19 deaths have been undercounted rather than overcounted by being conflated with deaths from other causes. For example the first known Covid-19 death in the USA was a woman in her 50's in Santa Clara in early Feb. She died at home after being sick and rapidly getting worse. Her death was not counted as a Covid-19 death since she hadn't been tested. It was only discovered to be Covid-19 after her family pestered the coroner to have her tissues tested months after she had died.
"Pretty much surmise" doesn't sound very scientific.
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Old 20th August 2020, 08:18 AM   #1230
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In today's news, proof of immunity. A ship w/ 120 crew had an outbreak at sea. At return to port, 100 tested positive. The three with former positive serology did not get infected this time.

https://nl.nytimes.com/f/newsletter/...5uZXRYBAAAAAA~
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Old 20th August 2020, 08:41 AM   #1231
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Originally Posted by Planigale
... sustained person to person transmission does not occur
Actually it does occur. Plague can become pneumonic where it is spread person to person.

Science Direct: Pneumonic Plague
Quote:
Primary pneumonic plague is a rare but often fatal form of Y. pestis infection that results from direct inhalation of bacteria and is potentially transmissible from person-to-person and has the potential for propagating epidemics.
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Old 20th August 2020, 08:57 AM   #1232
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
"Pretty much surmise" doesn't sound very scientific.
Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Indeed, and this is well known.

Similarly in the UK. Note how the Excess deaths exceed, but follow the COVID-19 deaths.



If you plot numbers of supposedly-non-covid excess deaths against deaths explicitly mentioning COVIC 19 for the same data you get an R-squared value of 0.7, which is pretty high for social science:



It suggests there's a common cause - which is COVID-19
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Old 20th August 2020, 09:02 AM   #1233
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I agree the 95% thing is measles and this isn't so infectious. 80% could do it I suspect. 40%? In your dreams.
If contacts were completely random though the population, an R0 of 2.5 would require ~60% of the population to be immune to achieve herd immunity. Iíve seen it reported as low as 40% in peer reviewed literature. I believe this is based on the fact that contact occurs within networks and contact between networks is less common.

The formula for it in a well mixed population is 1-(1/R0), so if you cut COVID-19 R0 in half (to 1.25) via extensive contact tracing and isolation, you can achieve herd immunity with only 20% of the population immune.
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Old 20th August 2020, 10:14 AM   #1234
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Actually it does occur. Plague can become pneumonic where it is spread person to person.

Science Direct: Pneumonic Plague
Yes pneumonic plague is transmissible from person to person, I believe it is a century since the last case in the US. That is why I used the term sustained transmission, your reference suggests that pneumonic plague could potentially cause an epidemic, in reality you may get a non-sustained outbreak. Even bubonic plague has the potential for person to person transmission by direct contact with infected body fluids, but this is not how plague epidemics occur, they are epizootic in the rat population with vector (flea) spread to humans. Person to person transmission will cause small non-sustained predominantly household outbreaks (or potentially nosocomial). In contrast to covid infectivity only occurs after onset of illness with transmission related to close sustained exposure such as nursing a sick family member.
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Old 20th August 2020, 10:58 AM   #1235
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Quote:
If contacts were completely random though the population, an R0 of 2.5 would require ~60% of the population to be immune to achieve herd immunity. I’ve seen it reported as low as 40% in peer reviewed literature. I believe this is based on the fact that contact occurs within networks and contact between networks is less common.

The formula for it in a well mixed population is 1-(1/R0), so if you cut COVID-19 R0 in half (to 1.25) via extensive contact tracing and isolation, you can achieve herd immunity with only 20% of the population immune.

Only if you choose the definition of herd immunity that results in endemic disease rather than elimination of the virus.
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Old 20th August 2020, 11:01 AM   #1236
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Hey, I only used plague as a rough example of a disease which recurred in mini-eipdemic waves, repeatedly, for many years. Yes I know it's bacterial, and a zoonosis, and has a wildlife reservoir, and is completely unlike covid in just about every other way!
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Old 20th August 2020, 12:04 PM   #1237
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Only if you choose the definition of herd immunity that results in endemic disease rather than elimination of the virus.
There is only one case where vaccines have eliminated a virus. Since itís extremely unlikely COVID-19 will be the second example, making that a requirement for herd immunity doesnít seem to add much to the discussion.
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Old 20th August 2020, 12:17 PM   #1238
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
There is only one case where vaccines have eliminated a virus. Since itís extremely unlikely COVID-19 will be the second example, making that a requirement for herd immunity doesnít seem to add much to the discussion.
I agree. Where "herd immunity" is used in papers it's pretty clear by context what is meant which is usually R<1 possibly under partial NPIs, whether by vaccine in combination with the recovered or with no vaccine (should a vaccine not prove effective however unlikely).

A major problem, especially on social media, is the folks that spout suggestions that we have already reached herd immunity or are are very close to it so open up the schools, bars, churches, and essentially get back to normal.

People tend to respond to terms and extrapolate meaning that just isn't there. When they hear "herd immunity" the response is "allrighty, let's pahtee."
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Old 20th August 2020, 12:33 PM   #1239
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Well, this is bad news. Especially for school opening.

https://www.jpeds.com/article/S0022-...023-4/fulltext

Quote:
We present findings from the largest pediatric COVID-19 biospecimen repository to date, describing viral load, ACE2 expression, and antibody responses as they relate to children with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and MIS-C. We found that children can carry high levels of virus in their upper airways, particularly early in an acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, yet they display relatively mild or no symptoms. However, there was no age correlation with viral load, indicating that infants through young adults can carry equally high levels of virus.
The experience in Sweden where schools were kept open for lower grades seems at odds with this and needs to be better investigated.
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Old 20th August 2020, 12:36 PM   #1240
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Hehehehehe Bloofield the anti masker.
No, he was listening to WHO. He's also changed his tune on it, as has WHO & CDC.

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Of course he sees virus on an electronic lift button touched for a nanosecond.
You mean he's taking a proven method of transmission as a potential method of transmission in that case?

Originally Posted by Samson View Post
Ridiculously overpaid incompetent civil servant.
I've seen a lot of criticism of Bloomfield and I don't get it at all.

He's guided NZ's response all the way so far and we have one of the very lowest infection and death rates in the world.

Take your glasses off, give them a good clean, and have another go.
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