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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , joe biden

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Old 11th November 2020, 08:00 AM   #801
Foster Zygote
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Originally Posted by Aridas View Post
I just see that as big incentive to lie.
I have a relative who is a Green Beret. He said that when the U.S. offered bounties for informing on Taliban collaborators, huge numbers of people came forward to turn in anyone they had a grudge against.
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:06 AM   #802
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I don't know which is the sadder possibility; that people honestly believe that we buy for a second that they have just assumed the role of "Constant on-call strike team to defend someone in every discussion, nitpick and attack their opposition, and pitch a hissy fit whenever an argument is critical of the person" without being a supporter or that they honestly think that is really something you can do and they are doing.

In politics there is no difference between a supporter and a defender and the amount of defense Trump gets for someone who nearly nobody admits to actually supporting is hilarious.
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:13 AM   #803
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Tweets flagged by Twitter:
This claim about election fraud is disputed


Trump Tweets

The Fake Pollsters at @ABC/@washingtonpost produced a possibly illegal suppression Poll just before the Election showing me down 17 points in Wisconsin when, in fact, on Election Day, the race was even - & we are now preparing to win the state. Many such “deplorable” instances!

A guy named Al Schmidt, a Philadelphia Commissioner and so-called Republican (RINO), is being used big time by the Fake News Media to explain how honest things were with respect to the Election in Philadelphia. He refuses to look at a mountain of corruption & dishonesty. We win!
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:15 AM   #804
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:18 AM   #805
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I had been enjoying Trump's suffering up until this point. Now he's going to Arlington National Cemetery where I'm sure he'll piss and moan about how butt hurt he is while standing on the graves of our war dead.
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:26 AM   #806
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
There may need to be a new thread: Trump's Coup d'état.
Yes, I think it is needed.

I am really worried how calm the other side is. It's like 'Oh, he's just having a tantrum, let him play while he still can. It will be all over soon...'

I honestly don't think so. They are setting things in motion, preparing positions. Slowly, one by one. And at some point he is going to flip the switch and everybody wakes up and says: 'Wait a minute, he can't do that!'
And he says: 'Watch me!'.
And this is it. Half the country is on his side. And his half has most of the guns... I'd say his chances are pretty good for getting away with it.

This is far from being over.


Last edited by carlosy; 11th November 2020 at 08:28 AM.
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:53 AM   #807
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Originally Posted by carlosy View Post
Yes, I think it is needed.

I am really worried how calm the other side is. It's like 'Oh, he's just having a tantrum, let him play while he still can. It will be all over soon...'

I honestly don't think so. They are setting things in motion, preparing positions. Slowly, one by one. And at some point he is going to flip the switch and everybody wakes up and says: 'Wait a minute, he can't do that!'
And he says: 'Watch me!'.
And this is it. Half the country is on his side. And his half has most of the guns... I'd say his chances are pretty good for getting away with it.

This is far from being over.

In every case, it will come down to the Supreme Court, and Roberts and Gorsuch in particular, I think. If state legislatures try to install their hand-picked electors, the Dems will file suit and it will go to SCOTUS. Any Trump lawsuit will wind up at SCOTUS.
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:55 AM   #808
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The Empire strikes back:
Quote:
WASHINGTON — President Trump, facing the prospect of leaving the White House in defeat in just 70 days, is harnessing the power of the federal government to resist the results of an election that he lost, something that no sitting president has done in American history.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...id=mailsignout

Last edited by Bob001; 11th November 2020 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 11th November 2020, 08:55 AM   #809
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I believe that Trump's game is to keep filing lawsuits and appeals to keep the results unresolved until the December deadline for the states to certify their results, try to get swing states with Republican legislatures to seat Republican electors to elect him to a second term. I think there is a small, but non-zero chance that this will actually work. Although a significant number of Republicans are not going along with this, far too many seem willing to stay on the Trump train for me to be completely confident. If he gets away with stealing this election, American democracy (such as it is) is toast.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:14 AM   #810
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The election will be certified for Biden before the Georgia Senate Election 2.0.
At which point Republicans will have to pick whether to stick to Trump and the lie, looking like wore losers, or accepting the results and pissing off Trump.

Not sure which result will help the republican candidates more.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:25 AM   #811
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The election will be certified for Biden before the Georgia Senate Election 2.0.
Sadly, at this stage I'm not 100% convinced that the election will be certified for Joe Biden. Could GOP Senators refuse to certify the election because there are outstanding lawsuits and ensuring that the electoral process is robust for the future is far more important than certifying a single President, in dubious circumstances, today ?

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
At which point Republicans will have to pick whether to stick to Trump and the lie, looking like wore losers, or accepting the results and pissing off Trump.

Not sure which result will help the republican candidates more.
IMO sticking to Trump and the lie.

If they move away from Trump then he will instruct his base not to vote for them and they'll lose by a considerable margin. If they stick with Trump then it'll likely be a close race and if they lose, they can attempt to litigate their way out of it.

Of course if Joe Biden isn't President then IMO all bets are off.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:34 AM   #812
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Originally Posted by Paul2 View Post
In every case, it will come down to the Supreme Court, and Roberts and Gorsuch in particular, I think. If state legislatures try to install their hand-picked electors, the Dems will file suit and it will go to SCOTUS. Any Trump lawsuit will wind up at SCOTUS.
I hope it doesn’t come down to that. If SCOTUS gives Trump the win then it is time to look at the calendar in order to call the precise time of death of US democracy.

And if SCOTUS gives Biden the win then Trump’s response will be loud enough to be known as the Yowl Heard ‘Round the World.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:35 AM   #813
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The election will be certified for Biden before the Georgia Senate Election 2.0.
At which point Republicans will have to pick whether to stick to Trump and the lie, looking like wore losers, or accepting the results and pissing off Trump.

Not sure which result will help the republican candidates more.

There's also the matter of the Leadership PAC that Trump announced he's creating. "Support me or you won't get any of the money I'll be raising."
As if the money would be going anywhere other than into his own pocket.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:42 AM   #814
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Originally Posted by Foster Zygote View Post
I have a relative who is a Green Beret. He said that when the U.S. offered bounties for informing on Taliban collaborators, huge numbers of people came forward to turn in anyone they had a grudge against.
Similarly, I was involved in a case of a missing person. When the police talked to the family, they said DO NOT offer a large reward. The bigger the reward, the more it attracts the loonies.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:44 AM   #815
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Originally Posted by turingtest View Post
This is the part where I disagree, without necessarily disagreeing with the rest of what you say. Seriously- you don't see any future problems arising from the fact that one of the two major political parties in our country is making an absolute *********** of our electoral process, for no other apparent reason than their political gain? They have already, in the last few years, set the precedent that the only thing that matters in politics is having the numbers needed to obstruct the other party- no need to be right, just have the technical right. They're making mouth-noises about protecting the integrity of the process and the confidence the American voter should have in it, while everything they're actually doing is to the effect of destroying that integrity and confidence. Do you really believe all those people that are being deliberately riled by manufactured evidence to think that Trump is a victim of fraud and theft are just going to sit back calmly and say "oh, well, guess we were wrong. Best of luck to Biden"? They think they are victims as well as Trump, that it's their victory that has been stolen. Evidence and reason aren't going to work to convince them out of something that evidence and reason had no part in convincing them into. And that will be the way going forward.
It's already the way, and has been for a while. The (probably needless) investigation would put to rest some of the concerns, and potentially strengthen our election system, because it does have loopholes. Even if the impact of those loopholes is small, they do exist, and thus will always be a source of conflict.

The tactics are different by party, but most of the strategies are the same. For the Republicans right now, it's voter fraud (which they've used before as well). In 2016, it was the Democrats crying that Russians hacked the voter booths. The Obama Birthers got replaced by the Pee Tapers. This isn't new. But Trump sure does make it blatant.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:51 AM   #816
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Georgia secretary of state announces hand recount of presidential race

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced Wednesday his state will conduct a manual hand recount of all ballots cast in the presidential race in the state, as he faces growing pressure from fellow Georgia Republicans over unsubstantiated accusations of voting irregularities and mismanagement of the state's elections.

"This will help build confidence. It will be an audit, a recount and a recanvass all at once," Raffensperger said at a press conference. "It will be a heavy lift."

He said the presidential contest will undergo a risk-limiting audit, which requires a full by-hand recount in each of Georgia's 159 counties.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia...idential-race/
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:52 AM   #817
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I agree with Turing. I definitely believe it has a material affect on the country.

Truth matters. Gaslighting creates a great cognitive dissonance with much of the public. It divides us even further. I can resolve differences with people based on the facts, but not if we distrust us each other to what the facts are. I use to have cordial, civil debates with people and then share a beer with them. This is impossible if they think you're a liar and/or the devil.
Yes, truth matters. But so does the ability to separate fact from interpretation. And that's where a whole lot of the discourse breaks down - and it's not just one side doing this. There may be agreement on actual objective facts, but there is almost always deep disagreement about what the impact of those facts are, what they mean, and the motivation behind them. And a lot of it comes down to rhetorical selection and narrative.

For example: It is a fact that almost 240,000 people in the US have died during this pandemic. Nobody disagrees with that number. It's the inferences and the satellite assumptions that prompt disagreement, and a lot of it is based on rhetoric. Some people insist upon saying that Trump killed those people, or that he is directly responsible for all of those deaths. That's not a fact - that's an interpretation and an opinion. Still others look at it and say "so what?" People die all the time, and at the end of the day, we're still at less than a tenth of a percent of the population, and think that in the grand scheme of things, it's not worth the economic fallout of massive unemployment, business closures, etc. And that is also interpretation and opinion.

Some people also question the validity of the count, and whether or not all of those people actually died as a result of COVID, or whether there is overcounting. Others suggest there may be undercounting. In neither of those cases are people not acknowledging the fact of the count, but they are challenging the assumptions behind that count.

The overwhelming divide is not about actual objective facts - it's about the interpretation and the assumptions wrapped around those facts.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:53 AM   #818
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They will be recounting the presidential race and all other offices on these ballots I assume?
Because if ballot counting was wrong it's wrong for all seats on that ballot right?
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:55 AM   #819
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Originally Posted by CORed View Post
I believe that Trump's game is to keep filing lawsuits and appeals to keep the results unresolved until the December deadline for the states to certify their results, try to get swing states with Republican legislatures to seat Republican electors to elect him to a second term. I think there is a small, but non-zero chance that this will actually work. Although a significant number of Republicans are not going along with this, far too many seem willing to stay on the Trump train for me to be completely confident. If he gets away with stealing this election, American democracy (such as it is) is toast.
Several months ago when the possibility of the election being stolen came to my attention, I did some reading of election law in several battleground states. My memory isn't allowing for particulars, but I think there are deadlines for filing lawsuits related to elections to forestall the very problem you mention. Furthermore, courts are inclined to handle such lawsuits before the state certification deadlines so the election can be certified. This is a basic scheduling issue that legislatures seem capable of doing, and I think they have done. Would be incompetent if they didn't.

ETA: Ballotpedia is the resource I started with, it was generally very good.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:56 AM   #820
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
Similarly, I was involved in a case of a missing person. When the police talked to the family, they said DO NOT offer a large reward. The bigger the reward, the more it attracts the loonies.
Unfortunately, if they uncover a few isolated, statistically insignificant accusations of fraud with any merit, a mountain of utter ******** heaped up beside it will be both implied to be, and inferred to be, just as valid.
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Old 11th November 2020, 09:57 AM   #821
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
I don't think they are courting disaster.

The fact is that even if all this bluster amounts to nothing, many folks will still believe the election was stolen. The GOP fought the good fight against evil, even if they were thwarted. This defeat will be remembered.

It's not as if the bulk of Republicans think that endless Benghazi hearings were a waste of time or that Hillary was innocent of whatever nefarious scheme that was about.
Many people are still firmly convinced that Trump had direct coordinated activity with Russia in order to steal the 2016 election, and that the pee tapes are real.

People believe whatever they need to believe in order to assuage their emotional distress. And at this point, politics in the US is not at all about logic or reason, it's almost entirely about emotions. It's not identity politics anymore, it's political identity.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:01 AM   #822
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
OMG!

Do you live in in a cave?

Maybe there are no Trumpers where you are showing up to demonstrate in camo with their rifles slung over their shoulders. Around here while murders have been limited to one or two at a time, that may not hold when their QAnon romper-room leader exits the WH.
And I'm sure that if Trump had won the EC vote, all of the democrats in the country would have just gone quietly without protests of any sort, right?

Different actors, same play.

But that's okay, I'm well aware of your deep partisanship.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:01 AM   #823
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Many people are still firmly convinced that Trump had direct coordinated activity with Russia in order to steal the 2016 election, and that the pee tapes are real.
Bah, the Mueller report concluded that the campaign wasn't smart enough to actually coordinate with the Russians, no matter how much they wanted to.

I have no problem believing that.

Of course, it doesn't mean the Russians weren't involved on their own.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:02 AM   #824
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Originally Posted by Fast Eddie B View Post
I think the flaw in that reasoning is the large numbers of Americans that simply don’t believe those numbers are legitimate.

Just today I saw a petition calling for a recount or a new election outright.

And a pickup with “2020 Fraud Election” painted on the rear window.

And numerous Facebook posts calling the election fraudulent.

For those folks, no number, no matter how large, will be seen as legitimate.
Might also be worth noting that the massive counts in NY and CA are irrelevant. Those don't change the EC outcome. It's the closer counts in the last half a dozen states to be called that matter for this claim.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:04 AM   #825
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
I, for one, appreciate the measured tone you adopt in your posts.
I do my best
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:07 AM   #826
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
I had been enjoying Trump's suffering up until this point. Now he's going to Arlington National Cemetery where I'm sure he'll piss and moan about how butt hurt he is while standing on the graves of our war dead.
Well, that was shocking. It behaved itself.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:07 AM   #827
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Even engineers and educators and other professionals apparently able to apply critical thinking skills in other areas can allow their critical thinking skills to be overpowered by their emotional and psychological needs.
Especially when it comes to cases where it's not objective directly observable facts that are in question, but rather the implications and interpretations of what those facts mean, as well as the moral lens applied to it.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:08 AM   #828
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Originally Posted by dirtywick View Post
We live in a world where there's vast networks of media that exist to not just tell you what you want to believe is true, but to convince you that it is.
And only show you those selective facts that support that view, and to bolster those facts with speculation and allegation and potential implications while pretending that those interpretations are also facts.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:11 AM   #829
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
It's a tapatalk post, which means it was done on a phone. Seems extremely likely that it was a pocket post.
We have Rudy Gulliani on ISF?!
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:11 AM   #830
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
And I'm sure that if Trump had won the EC vote, all of the democrats in the country would have just gone quietly without protests of any sort, right?

Different actors, same play.

But that's okay, I'm well aware of your deep partisanship.
If only there was a record of what happened in 2016.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:12 AM   #831
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sadly, at this stage I'm not 100% convinced that the election will be certified for Joe Biden. Could GOP Senators refuse to certify the election because there are outstanding lawsuits and ensuring that the electoral process is robust for the future is far more important than certifying a single President, in dubious circumstances, today ?
No. The Senate doesn't have that option. They just count the votes, and it's ceremonial. The votes will be taken, publicly, December 14. The actions of the Senate in all this is about as important as that thing where some official or something shuts the doors of the House of Lords at the beginning of Parliament....or....whatever it is that they do. I've seen it on documentaries, but I can't remember the details.

The point is that it is a symbolic action which, although it is taken very seriously, and should be, it doesn't mean anything.

What could conceivably happen is that one or more states refuse to seat electors, although even that is a stretch. If that happens, it's off to court to work it all out. The closest things to issues that have ever actually occurred in the US happened when different factions in some states sent multiple sets of electoral votes to Washington in 1876, and they had to work it out, or in Florida 2000. In that case, the Florida process was followed, and Bush won, but Gore appealed, and before it was all over it was in the Supreme Court, where Bush won.

Basically, the lawsuits are not likely to result in any action at all. If they do, it will be to prevent a state from certifying electors. If the states certify the electors, the Senate and the President can't do anything about it.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:13 AM   #832
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
I disagree and I'll use the most obvious (to me) example to illustrate my view. Trump has incessantly called the press the "enemy of the people" (without the CAPS ) and labeled numerous reports as "fake news". This is exactly what someone with malicious intents would say in order to minimize the impact of their malicious actions.

Assume Trump does not have malicious intents. But based on his statements we cannot distinguish his non-malicious intents from those of someone who does, in fact, have malicious intents. Thus, I would argue that it is not "mind-reading" or "speculations" to attribute to him malicious intents, especially in light of the overall zeitgeist created by Trump, namely, that so many of his actions have, indeed, harmed the USA.

It's an invocation of the old saw about judging a man not by his words but by his deeds. If we do that, I assert that is not speculation or mind-reading to take as the default assumption that he does not behave with good intentions.
Working from your example, I'll present an alternative interpretation. Assume that the news is actually misleading, selective, and contributing directly to a false narrative that influences the people of the US by providing them with a warped optic. Assume, for the sake of argument, that all news is Fox News.

If that is the case, then would the person calling it fake news and the enemy of the people be harming the US and having malicious effects? Or would they be acting in the interest of the people by trying to make it clear that Fox is full of crap, is presenting highly stilted information that isn't fully representative, and is crafting a narrative in order to sway people to a false conclusion?

If Trump were attacking Fox News in the same way, would you still consider it to be malicious?
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:16 AM   #833
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I don't buy that. They exist to make money.
Outrage and fear make money. Outrage is best kept at the simmering stage by presenting information selectively in order to support whichever narrative best drives fear and offense in viewers. Even better is to wrap that selective information with speculations and inferences that amplify the outrage with what it means.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:16 AM   #834
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Georgia secretary of state announces hand recount of presidential race

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced Wednesday his state will conduct a manual hand recount of all ballots cast in the presidential race in the state, as he faces growing pressure from fellow Georgia Republicans over unsubstantiated accusations of voting irregularities and mismanagement of the state's elections.

"This will help build confidence. It will be an audit, a recount and a recanvass all at once," Raffensperger said at a press conference. "It will be a heavy lift."

He said the presidential contest will undergo a risk-limiting audit, which requires a full by-hand recount in each of Georgia's 159 counties.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia...idential-race/
And when it turns up nothing can they send Trump the bill?
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:16 AM   #835
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
I guess that's a difference - I don't see there being any cost other than the space you give it in your head. All of Trump's bitching and posturing will, at best, introduce some delay. It's a distraction and a waste of time. But it has no material impact on the welfare of the country, nor does it have any affect on the future of the country. It's mostly annoying and embarrassing.
I was on board with the same logic: Let him have his temper tantrum, Biden can get everything lined up with or without Trump's assistance. That's why we hired the adult this time.

Then I saw a talking head reference the 9/11 Commission and I was a bit unsettled. I can't find the talking head I was watching, but here is a CNN article that makes the same reference:

Originally Posted by CNN
When the contested 2000 election delayed George W. Bush's transition, it delayed his national security team and was a contributing factor to the September 11, 2001, terror attacks, according to a finding in the official 9/11 Commission Report.
That is the sort of thing that makes me less comfortable with letting the temper tantrum linger.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:19 AM   #836
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
And when it turns up nothing can they send Trump the bill?
Depends who does the count as to what it turns up!
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:21 AM   #837
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
Working from your example, I'll present an alternative interpretation. Assume that the news is actually misleading, selective, and contributing directly to a false narrative that influences the people of the US by providing them with a warped optic. Assume, for the sake of argument, that all news is Fox News.

If that is the case, then would the person calling it fake news and the enemy of the people be harming the US and having malicious effects? Or would they be acting in the interest of the people by trying to make it clear that Fox is full of crap, is presenting highly stilted information that isn't fully representative, and is crafting a narrative in order to sway people to a false conclusion?

If Trump were attacking Fox News in the same way, would you still consider it to be malicious?
Yes, absolutely. This hinges on the *way* that Trump attacks the media. If some media are actually saying false things, a responsible President counters with facts and evidence (with allowances for rhetoric), not to slam the media as a whole, or even one media outlet generally, as opposed to refuting specific claims.

The way Trump attacked the media undercut the media as a whole, who are protected in the constitution.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:23 AM   #838
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Georgia hand recount is a poor approach. These things should be based on evidence. And assuming a hand recount is better than a machine recount is incorrect.

ETA: I seem to remember someone having a signature to the effect "A man with a single watch knows what time it is, while a man with two watches is never sure."
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Last edited by slyjoe; 11th November 2020 at 10:25 AM.
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Old 11th November 2020, 10:26 AM   #839
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
Georgia hand recount is a poor approach. These things should be based on evidence.
Isn't it just an automatic recount based on the narrow victory margin for Biden?

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Old 11th November 2020, 10:31 AM   #840
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
Isn't it just an automatic recount based on the narrow victory margin for Biden?

Dave
From Politico:
Quote:
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, said that he would designate the presidential contest as the race to undergo a “risk-limiting audit,” an election verification procedure that uses a statistical formula to determine how many electronically tabulated ballots need to be manually checked in order to rule out the possibility of fraud or errors.

“With the margin being so close, it will require a full, by-hand recount in each county,” Raffensperger said. “It will be an audit, a recount and a recanvass all at once.”

In risk-limiting audits, every ballot is not necessarily examined for accuracy. But, because of the closeness of the presidential race, that is what will happen to every ballot in Georgia. Raffensperger said the margin between Biden and Trump is currently just 14,111 votes.
My main point is a full hand recount is less accurate than a machine recount.
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