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Old 5th March 2020, 05:38 PM   #201
dudalb
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And the Market lost 1000 points today, losing almost everything it gained on yesterday's Biden BOunce.
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Old 5th March 2020, 05:51 PM   #202
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Bloody Hell!

I lost more today than I gained yesterday.

I suppose having a fair amount of Carnival Cruise Line didn't turn out so well for me.


If they had a huge amount of debt, I would dump them like a hot rock, because I have a feeling that the next six months are going to be a bit rough on cruising companies. However, as it is, their stock is pretty cheap compared to how they were doing until the last couple of months. If they can weather the storm, it should come back. If I were trying to time the market, though, I could imagine shorting that particular stock right now. They aren't going to have a good year.

The discussion came up in the office today about whether you would go on a cruise right now, regardless of how cheap it was. Of course, my answer is no. That's the one place where you could end up quarantined for a couple of weeks, surrounded by sick people.
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Old 5th March 2020, 06:26 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
There's a stark difference between most that have come out recently ( a few days back) and those done during when there was no emerging pandemic. The former being much more positive predicting a short term, relatively minor effect.

Not surprising.
Haha! Bloody funny, though.

I stick by my assessment that they have no idea about pandemics, viruses, and probably science in general.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
As this info comes out we'll see much more social distancing and concomitant economic effects. It will come into increasing conflict with the notion that coronavirus is just another flu type bug. Lots of blaming and finger pointing ahead.
I'm beginning to think that all measures are far too late and we may as well just ignore it and carry on.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Got the memo at work today, in Michigan.

1. If you are the least bit sick, STAY HOME!
That advice has completely escaped NZ, so I'll be able to let you know in a fortnight or so.

Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
I suppose having a fair amount of Carnival Cruise Line didn't turn out so well for me.
Ouch!

Anything to do with travel is being savaged, but yeah, cruises are turds right now.

I hope it doesn't for your sake, but I suspect cruising will take a very long time to get past this, if ever. People will always wonder if it could happen again.

And the answer to that is: quite possibly. When there's twice as many people as 35 years ago, there's obviously more than twice as many chances of zoonotic diseases arising because a large part of the increase is in poor countries, with poor hygiene and often very close proximity to animals.
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Old 5th March 2020, 07:22 PM   #204
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Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind.
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Old 5th March 2020, 08:14 PM   #205
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind.
The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year.

Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover.

In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe.


If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy.
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Old 5th March 2020, 09:51 PM   #206
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Futures down a heap already.

Tomorrow looks like being another ugly day.

And I'm tempted to put this in the humour thread: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

Quote:
Wall Street Stock Pros Confess: ‘We Don’t Know What’s Going On’
Which is a pretty awful admission. Go and learn some ******* maths!
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Old 5th March 2020, 10:50 PM   #207
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Have you always been this good at playing the fiddle?
He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********.
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Old 5th March 2020, 11:06 PM   #208
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********.
Where did I say I wasn't relishing it? Of course I'm relishing it, TVIX are solidly $140 and I'm confident they'll break $300, never mind $200.

I'm making a lot of money out of it, and so are several of my mates. What's not to be happy about when you're virtually the only person to nail the stock tip of the century to date?
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Old 6th March 2020, 04:16 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Where did I say I wasn't relishing it? Of course I'm relishing it, TVIX are solidly $140 and I'm confident they'll break $300, never mind $200.

I'm making a lot of money out of it, and so are several of my mates. What's not to be happy about when you're virtually the only person to nail the stock tip of the century to date?
Hmmmm

Quote:
Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
It's difficult to read tone online, so I'll ask: do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster?
No.
Here you were saying you weren’t gleeful. I suppose you will now say “glee” and “relish” are utterly different. Wouldn’t surprise me.

But it’s good to hear you are enjoying the (temporary) misfortune of others.
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Old 6th March 2020, 12:33 PM   #210
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Here you were saying you weren’t gleeful. I suppose you will now say “glee” and “relish” are utterly different. Wouldn’t surprise me.
Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it.

Let me spell it out for you:

Quote:
...do you intend to sound gleeful at the prospect of both economic and viral disaster?
I've highlighted the important word for you.

I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others.

Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases.

Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
But it’s good to hear you are enjoying the (temporary) misfortune of others.
Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars.

TVIX trading at $196.
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Old 6th March 2020, 12:49 PM   #211
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year.

Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover.

In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe.


If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy.
One of the reasons I don't get involved in individual stocks is that there's just too many unknowns. The ones in the worst position may be the ones that get government bailouts that turn them into winners. Or maybe some of them and not others for arbitrary political reasons (Why Goldman Sachs but not Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns?)
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Old 6th March 2020, 02:55 PM   #212
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it.

Let me spell it out for you:



I've highlighted the important word for you.

I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others.

Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases.

Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah.
Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah.



Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars.

TVIX trading at $196.
Good try but completely unconvincing since you didn’t make the distinction between virus and economic effects when originally asked.

Anyway your doom and gloom predictions are tiresome. Car production, air travel and equity markets will all bounce back within months. I will be gleeful then.
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Old 6th March 2020, 03:20 PM   #213
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I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting.
And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel.
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Old 6th March 2020, 03:23 PM   #214
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Airlines are going under already. Cruise companies can't be far behind.
And rumors that most major film studios are debating whether or not to move their big blockbuster scheduled to open in the next couple of months to a later date.
One of the years biggest films "No Time To Die".the last Craig Bond film, has already been pulled from an April/May opening to November.
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Old 6th March 2020, 05:53 PM   #215
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I will be gleeful then.
So, you call me for taking pleasure at seeing rich people lose money, yet you're taking pleasure at destroying the planet's ecosystem.

Good work.
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Old 6th March 2020, 06:07 PM   #216
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
So, you call me for taking pleasure at seeing rich people lose money, yet you're taking pleasure at destroying the planet's ecosystem.

Good work.
I’ve seen a lot of straw men in my time here, but this takes the cake.

Anyway, enjoy your rejoicing while it lasts.
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Old 6th March 2020, 06:19 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting.
And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel.
Agreed. And, rather than Black Swan territory, nations and central banks know how to manage recessions.

As for air travel, New Zealanders only have to get to Australia, and Australia only needs to send NZ crooks back, so ships can do the job.
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Old 6th March 2020, 07:20 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I’ve seen a lot of straw men in my time here, but this takes the cake.
Yeah, it's s strawman that air travel is a major contributor to greenhouse emissions, in the most-damaging part of the atmosphere: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/c...emissions.html

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Anyway, enjoy your rejoicing while it lasts.
Are you a bit jealous that you didn't get on and I'm creaming it? Certainly looks that way, because the rejoicing will last forever - I'm already cashed out in profit and have 100 shares that cost me $0 currently worth nearly $200 each.

I can not lose.
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Old 6th March 2020, 07:23 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Agreed. And, rather than Black Swan territory, nations and central banks know how to manage recessions.


That's outstanding - I might even start using that in my sig.

Economics not your strong point, is it?

The Dow is down 300 today and futs are off 300 more. The Fed cut rates from 2.25 to 1% and the market tanked. Pretty well everyone who can even spell economics recognises this is a black swan, but you know it isn't.

I hear the RBA will be looking for a new governor in a year or two - you should apply.
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Old 6th March 2020, 07:28 PM   #220
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think a recession(for which we are way overdue anyway) is becoming more likely, but not the total meltdown the OP is predicting.
Just to be clear, my prediction was this, from page 1:

Quote:
I stick by my analysis that if it gets out of control it will be much worse than the entirely artificial GFC.
"Worse than the GFC" is not "total meltdown".

Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
And I see a certain amount of Ludditism in his joy over the alleged end of Air Travel.
It's not going to end air travel, unfortunately, but I'm always going to rejoice at any reduction in both air travel and carbon emissions.

You call it Ludditism, I call it trying not to destroy the ecosystem.
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Old 6th March 2020, 10:48 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Mate, you might need some reading assistance, because even though you quoted the post, you clearly didn't understand it.



Let me spell it out for you:







I've highlighted the important word for you.



I shouldn't need to say it again (again) [again], but I take no pleasure from a disease which is highly likely to kill several people I quite like, along with probably millions of others.



Also, it's not going to create an economic disaster, and if you check some facts for a change, you'll find that the disease is actually providing some pretty cool reductions in climate-destroying gases.



Am I going to celebrate a 92% reduction in car sales in China? Hell yeah.

Am I going to celebrate the utter destruction of the most-damaging form of travel we've yet invented - air travel? hell yeah.

Am I going to celebrate Private Equity Firms losing trillions of dollars they stole off poor people? Hell yeah.







Should've taken my advice - you could be up tens of thousands of dollars.



TVIX trading at $196.
Nobody knows more about TVIX then me.
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Old 7th March 2020, 01:04 AM   #222
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Nobody knows more about TVIX then me.
Well, I hope you bought a heap at $37, then. It's the cheapest they've ever been and they're on the way to $300+ over the next couple of weeks.

$1000 would not surprise me at all. It'd please me, though!
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Old 8th March 2020, 03:46 AM   #223
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Everyone knows the TPIX is a much better index.
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Old 8th March 2020, 03:41 PM   #224
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Quote:
Stock futures tumbled in overnight trading Sunday as investors continued to brace for the economic fallout from the spreading coronavirus, while a shocking all-out oil price war added to the anxiety.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 900 points. The S&P 500 futures also indicated a 4% drop at the open on Monday. The sharp declines in the futures market pointed to more turbulence ahead after a roller-coaster week that saw the S&P 500 swing up or down more than 2.5% for four days straight.

Saudi Arabia on Saturday slashed official crude selling prices for April, in a sudden U-turn from previous attempts to support the oil market as the coronavirus hammers global demand. The move came after OPEC talks collapsed Friday, prompting some strategists to see oil prices crater to $20 this year.

“Crude has become a bigger problem for markets than the coronavirus,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said Sunday. “It will be virtually impossible for the [S&P 500] to sustainably bounce if Brent continues to crater,” he added.
Linky.
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Old 8th March 2020, 04:13 PM   #225
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Holy crap, I hadn't caught up with that - another 1000 points down to start the day isn't going to be pretty.

The commodity markets are just rubbing salt into the wounds.

Gold seems to be the only one showing life, and not a great deal of it. Even Bitcoin fell of a cliff today.
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Old 8th March 2020, 04:16 PM   #226
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Just a bit further on the economic impact, I'm starting to hear of all kinds of manufacturers running into supply problems.

One guy I deal with manages intelligent building controls and they're struggling to get equipment out of China. The follow-on from that will be delayed openings of new buildings, and upgrades left in limbo.
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Old 8th March 2020, 05:19 PM   #227
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Australian ASX200 down 5% so far today, now 14% off its high set three short weeks ago.

And with no sign whatsoever of buyers, it's nowhere near finished.
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Old 8th March 2020, 07:35 PM   #228
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Just to put things in perspective - this is the economist for BNZ, the second-largest bank in NZ:

Quote:
"We can't stress enough, though, that this is not a cyclical downturn so the economy won't react to standard cyclical monetary and fiscal policy responses. This downturn is fundamentally a supply shock which, in turn, is creating a demand shock. Its root cause is Covid-19 so how the behaviour of individuals, globally, to this shock evolves will ultimately determine the economic path from here on in. Policymakers can only hope to smooth the process."
Picking an almost-certain recession.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...op-it-bnz-says
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Old 8th March 2020, 08:15 PM   #229
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Futures down so far > 5% that the future market circuit breakers cut in.

Tomorrow should be interesting.

Quote:
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index sank 5% to 2,819 as of 8:05 p.m. in New York. After briefly rallying, they slipped back to the limit-down level and held there about two hours later. The curb means the contract can’t trade at a lower price for the remainder of the overnight session, although transactions at or above the threshold are allowed.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rout-...221631295.html

I wonder if the NYSE market open will be delayed tomorrow morning.
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Old 8th March 2020, 08:50 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just a bit further on the economic impact, I'm starting to hear of all kinds of manufacturers running into supply problems.

One guy I deal with manages intelligent building controls and they're struggling to get equipment out of China. The follow-on from that will be delayed openings of new buildings, and upgrades left in limbo.
Yeah, this has been in the cards for quite a while and we are really only at the very start of shortage impacts and various shutdowns. Going to get very ugly. Once the shortages start hurting there will be calls for anti-hoarding and price controls, make stock shorting illegal, and so on.

Will totally mess up price discovery in markets with long lasting consequences.
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Old 8th March 2020, 09:03 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Futures down so far > 5% that the future market circuit breakers cut in.

Tomorrow should be interesting.
I'm not sure "interesting" is the right word. How about "catastrophic"?

It's testing a 2-year low right now - I think my prediction of more than 20% is looking spot on at the moment. I'd hate to try to pick the bottom right now - might be like crude oil: no bottom.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Yeah, this has been in the cards for quite a while and we are really only at the very start of shortage impacts and various shutdowns. Going to get very ugly. Once the shortages start hurting there will be calls for anti-hoarding and price controls, make stock shorting illegal, and so on.

Will totally mess up price discovery in markets with long lasting consequences.
I'm waiting for a certain poster to come back and shout about this not being a Black Swan, because you're right - it's only the start.

I really don't know how it plays out from here, and I'm pretty sure nobody else does either.
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Old 8th March 2020, 09:17 PM   #232
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So, the Sauds are playing with fire, flooding the market with crude. Futures down by about one third overnight right now.
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Old 8th March 2020, 09:23 PM   #233
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
The thing is, most of them won't "go under". However, they will have a very, very, bad year.

Some of them have lots of debt and not much cash. Those could very well go under. The others, though, should recover.

In the theory of the stock market, this one bad year shouldn't have much of an effect on stock price. In the practice of the stock market, prices bounce all over the place, and the overreactions are severe.


If I were a business analyst, I would look at cruise lines, figure out which ones will likely be bankrupted by the almost complete elimination of their business for six months, and then buy the others, who will have less competition in six months for a market that is almost as big. (Almost, because some of their customers will be dead.) That will be a good stock to buy.
There are, right now, what, 4 major cruise lines? I expect that to be down to 2. One of them is Disney, obviously they have the cash to weather the storm.

I haven't the foggiest clue why anyone would ever risk going for a cruise. Seems like theres some new horror story every few months, even before COVID-19.

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Old 8th March 2020, 09:35 PM   #234
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Just to put things in perspective - this is the economist for BNZ, the second-largest bank in NZ:



Picking an almost-certain recession.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120...op-it-bnz-says
If this virus goes away then there will be huge pent up demand and we will be back to the pre 1973 days for a year or two. Companies would put out requests for capital. The virus will go away (for a decade or two) if everyone becomes immune to it.

If it is like the flu and comes back every few years (and just as bad as it always is), just as bad then society is doomed. As in recession would be an optimistic term.
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Old 8th March 2020, 10:41 PM   #235
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I'm not sure "interesting" is the right word. How about "catastrophic"?
I was thinking of the old Chinese curse: "May he live in interesting times" when I wrote that.
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Old 9th March 2020, 12:24 AM   #236
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
If this virus goes away then there will be huge pent up demand and we will be back to the pre 1973 days for a year or two.
The problem will be the pent-up demand is going to need material, and that's going to be in short supply.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
I was thinking of the old Chinese curse: "May he live in interesting times" when I wrote that.
Haha! That one, I'll give you.
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Old 9th March 2020, 04:51 AM   #237
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
I was thinking of the old Chinese curse: "May he live in interesting times" when I wrote that.
The Chinese haven't heard of it.
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Old 9th March 2020, 05:54 AM   #238
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
He’s been playing hard since the OP. The really funny thing is he is claiming that he is not relishing this (temporary) downturn. ********.
Same thing in the Coronavirus thread.
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Old 9th March 2020, 05:58 AM   #239
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It's not going to end air travel, unfortunately
What in the blue tits are you babbling about, 'unfortunately'? First the glee of predicting a deadly pandemic, then an economic collapse, and now you're saying that air travel should end while dancing about how the current predicament has made you richer.

What the hell is wrong with you?

Quote:
You call it Ludditism, I call it trying not to destroy the ecosystem.
Oh come off it. Air travel is not the largest driver of pollution and you know it. If you want to take it to its logical conclusion, eliminating humanity might be the only way to "save the ecosystem", which now that I type this surely would explain your recent posting history.
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Old 9th March 2020, 06:05 AM   #240
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Future Ice Core sample will provide evidence for the effect the Pandemic has on the world economy.
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