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Old 31st March 2020, 09:29 AM   #41
dann
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
WRT Australia they have performed 9600 tests per million people vs 3100 per million people in the US

Better than Denmark, not as good as Norway.
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Old 31st March 2020, 11:26 AM   #42
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Sunlight may play a role but for a different reason: virus in the air or on surfaces exposed to the sun.
No doubt about that, but you'd expect outdoor transmission to be minor.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
You can supplement your way out of a vitamin D deficiency for those who have one. I am sure you don't mean you can supplement your way out of getting the coronavirus.
No, just very poorly-stated point. Few people take supplements, and poor people probably never do.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
And yes, that vitamin D deficiency does disproportionately affect the elderly but there are many other physical ailments that affect the elderly and it wouldn't explain why Japanese and Canadian elderly are not as badly affected.
Japan is potentially the high fish intake, and I'm not sure Canada fits the scenario yet - they may be another Germany/SK - efficiently testing and managing it.

Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Also, are not other groups such as pregnant women and children also susceptible to vitamin D deficiency?
I had a quick look and didn't see that, but vitamin D deficiency during pregnancy isn't good. Pregnant women are obviously providing nutrients for two, so maybe.

Originally Posted by carlosy View Post
Like in Italy, Spain and France?
Get much sun in them during December - February?

I do realise they're sunny places, but they're not exactly tropical. Coming right at the end of northern winter, widespread low levels wouldn't surprise.

Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
The reasons why some countries fare better than others may well turn out to be different in each case. It's certainly worth trying to identify a common factor, but keep in mind there simply may not be one.
You bet. Even type O blood isn't as evenly distributed as I expected. That's why I see it like a jigsaw - a piece here, a piece there, see what you end up with.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Italy and Spain are 6 and 7 on that list so one would think they'd have a good starting position, but that was evidently nixed by piss poor government reaction to the epidemic.
They did more than Japan.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
My #1 suggestion: compile reliable data.

...

Comment: without reliable data and a testable hypothesis, you're at least half-way to woo-woo land.
Call me disappointed. I'd rated your posts quite highly during the entire course of the event so far, yet now you come out with the most ignorant and insulting post you could make.

First off compile reliable data? Are you kidding? Where is that reliable ******* data? USA? China, maybe?

The data is utterly limited, so you'd be waiting a long time for reliable data and the epidemic would be a memory by then.

And you know that, so why try to make it a point?

Secondly, this is a discussion forum, not a scientific publication, so even thinking about suggesting it's "woo-woo" [are you a train] to discuss possibilities is bloody insulting.

Given there's no data, no hypothesis is possible, and I made it plain in the OP that I was after suggestions.

You don't have any? No problem, but butting in with a post like that is absurd.
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Old 31st March 2020, 11:30 AM   #43
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Something I will throw in the mix is that I did a bit of a search on Domincan Republic and found two interesting things about that country and vitamin D.

One is that deficiency is an issue there, mainly due to poor nutrition in a largely impoverished people.

Second is there was a major problem there in 2012 when a vitamin supplement on sale had toxic levels of vitamin D in it, so it wouldn't be unusual for there to be a bit of resistance to taking supplements there: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21123442
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Old 31st March 2020, 12:15 PM   #44
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Because it's all a bunch of BS and it's the way normal flu works every year. There are always territorial anomalies, it would be an anomaly if there weren't. And yes, vitamin D plays a huge role. The rest of this is a cross post from a coment I made on the other thread but it's relevant here because the territorial anomalies just bolster it further.

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate. A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu". We have this German doctor:

https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

explaining how this hype happened (10 minute vid, he'sa pulmonologist and flu expert, well worth the watch), and how it's a case of the emperor having no clothes. We have northern Italy as an anamalous hotspot, which we have somewhere every year, we just don't tend to hear about it. We have the media machine hyping it up, reporting on every case and every celeb. It's all bs. Explain how it's not. I've been searching and have found the same reports on overflowing hospitals for the regular flu in the past. Here's just one example:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...ents/?amp=true

It's exactly the same.

So we have we now have the US government on record as officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate and the media reports it as "Grim death toll projected." They could just as well have said "Promising new projections indicate epidemic may end up no with death rate no worse than normal flu".

Someone smarter than me please explain how this isn't all a bunch of BS, because I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist about most things but this is really striking me as questionable.

Last edited by Doghouse Reilly; 31st March 2020 at 12:17 PM.
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Old 31st March 2020, 12:16 PM   #45
JeanTate
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Thanks for that! For some reason, that one thing you said suddenly helped me understand a concept I had heard but not really understood which is "overfitting".
You're most welcome.

Failure to be careful about writing down hypotheses before looking at the data can also lead to confirmation bias; sometimes this can be hard to recognize.

Of course, IRL it's difficult to develop hypotheses in isolation, and the reality of how science works - per many a study - is that there's a continual back-and-forth between testing/data and new ideas (which lead to hypotheses).
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Old 31st March 2020, 12:35 PM   #46
dann
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Something I will throw in the mix is that I did a bit of a search on Domincan Republic and found two interesting things about that country and vitamin D.

One is that deficiency is an issue there, mainly due to poor nutrition in a largely impoverished people.

Second is there was a major problem there in 2012 when a vitamin supplement on sale had toxic levels of vitamin D in it, so it wouldn't be unusual for there to be a bit of resistance to taking supplements there: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21123442

We had a similar (probably worse, actually) case here a few years ago, but it doesn't seem to have led to any resistance to taking vitamin D:
Vitamin D supplements poison dozens of Danish children (British Medical Journal, Aug. 16, 2016)
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Old 31st March 2020, 12:41 PM   #47
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I'll try (part hilited)

Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Because it's all a bunch of BS and it's the way normal flu works every year.
The "normal flu" does not produce patients needing ICU and/or ventilators, in numbers which overwhelm the available resources.

Quote:
There are always territorial anomalies, it would be an anomaly if there weren't. And yes, vitamin D plays a huge role.
In what? The incidence and severity of the "normal flu"?

Can you clarify please? And if this is what you mean, can you substantiate it?

Quote:
The rest of this is a cross post from a coment I made on the other thread but it's relevant here because the territorial anomalies just bolster it further.

Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.
A source would be nice.

The "normal flu" does not infect 160 million people in the US in any given year.

Quote:
As far as I'm concerned the case is closed. We have the US government itself projecting 0.1% death rate. A coronavirus with that death rate compared to total infections is literally, by definition "normal flu".

<snip>
The definition of "the flu" (whether normal or not) has to do with infection of humans by a particular virus, Influenzavirus A, within the family OrthomyxoviridaeWP.

Quote:
explaining how this hype happened (10 minute vid, he'sa pulmonologist and flu expert, well worth the watch), and how it's a case of the emperor having no clothes. We have northern Italy as an anamalous hotspot, which we have somewhere every year, we just don't tend to hear about it. We have the media machine hyping it up, reporting on every case and every celeb. It's all bs. Explain how it's not. I've been searching and have found the same reports on overflowing hospitals for the regular flu in the past. Here's just one example:

https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...ents/?amp=true

It's exactly the same.
Is the covid-19 epidemic, in Italy, over? Or is it still on-going? How about in the US?

If it's still on-going, what is the basis for making comparisons with the "normal flu"?

Quote:
So we have we now have the US government on record as officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate and the media reports it as "Grim death toll projected." They could just as well have said "Promising new projections indicate epidemic may end up no with death rate no worse than normal flu".
They could just as well have said that.

And if you've done your own, at least semi-independent, modelling, you may reach the conclusion that "the US government" "officially reporting a flu-level 0.1% projected death rate" is wildly optimistic (I am on record - elsewhere in this forum - with a projection of ~1.9 million covid-19 deaths in the US; happy to repeat it for you if you're interested).

If, this time next year, well over a million people in the US died of covid-19, then the media's "Grim death toll projected" will have been accurate, right?

Quote:
Someone smarter than me please explain how this isn't all a bunch of BS, because I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a denialist about most things but this is really striking me as questionable.
Hope you find my post helpful.
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Old 31st March 2020, 12:49 PM   #48
dann
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Fauci and cdc are saying 200,000 could die with 160 million infected. That works out to a fatality rate of 0.1%, same as normal flu.

If the lockdown works, if the hospitals get the necessary ventilators, if hospital workers get the masks and other protection they need, if ...

In the meantime - not in Lombardy, Italy, but in New York:
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Do you fear for your investments?


Health experts say there is no evidence vitamin D is effective in preventing novel coronavirus infection (AFP Fact Check, Feb. 28, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 31st March 2020 at 12:52 PM.
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Old 31st March 2020, 01:00 PM   #49
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Thanks.

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
<snip>

Call me disappointed. I'd rated your posts quite highly during the entire course of the event so far, yet now you come out with the most ignorant and insulting post you could make.

First off compile reliable data? Are you kidding? Where is that reliable ******* data? USA? China, maybe?

The data is utterly limited, so you'd be waiting a long time for reliable data and the epidemic would be a memory by then.

And you know that, so why try to make it a point?

Secondly, this is a discussion forum, not a scientific publication, so even thinking about suggesting it's "woo-woo" [are you a train] to discuss possibilities is bloody insulting.

Given there's no data, no hypothesis is possible, and I made it plain in the OP that I was after suggestions.

You don't have any? No problem, but butting in with a post like that is absurd.
Let's say there is a hypothesis which relates covid-19 infections to sunlight.

In Australia.

In the period February/March 2020.

Some data which might be relevant: number of sunlight hours in Sydney and Melbourne, in those two months (such data for Alice Springs, say, is not helpful; to an OOM nobody lives in Alice Springs, but more than 50% of Australians live in Sydney or Melbourne).

This seems like the sort of thing a public meteorological agency might obtain, and provide free, as a public service. And if data for 2020 is not available, some sort of historical average surely is (good enough for an OOM).

Repeat for Canada, Hawaii, Japan, ... plus some "control" places.

Re Vitamin D: it may be challenging to get data on relevant blood serum levels for Feb/Mar 2020, but nutrition scientists have surely done surveys to estimate average population levels (and variances), by season, and such results should be in the public domain, right?

Random: both the yoghurt and milk in my fridge contain Vitamin D. From memory, fortifying milk/dairy with Vitamin D is a public health initiative/requirement of many decades' standing; its motivation is - at least in part - to help ensure that pregnant women get enough Vitamin D.
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Old 31st March 2020, 01:55 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Re Vitamin D: it may be challenging to get data on relevant blood serum levels for Feb/Mar 2020, but nutrition scientists have surely done surveys to estimate average population levels (and variances), by season, and such results should be in the public domain, right?
This prompted me to simply google it and that turned up a lot!

https://revista-fi.com.br/upload_arq...1464973585.pdf

https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/...JE-18-0736.xml

Some studies indicate that vitamin D levels in Japan are actually dangerously low. Here's one: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0213264

There's much more!
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Old 31st March 2020, 02:53 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
This prompted me to simply google it and that turned up a lot!

https://revista-fi.com.br/upload_arq...1464973585.pdf

https://eje.bioscientifica.com/view/...JE-18-0736.xml

Some studies indicate that vitamin D levels in Japan are actually dangerously low. Here's one: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0213264

There's much more!
This is an interesting discussion of vitamin D and immunity:

http://www.laleva.org/eng/2006/11/vi...c_vitamin.html

The site as a whole may be woo, I'm not sure because I don't frequent it, but that particular article is good and not woo. Since reading it, I've been supplementing with vitamin D.

Last edited by Doghouse Reilly; 31st March 2020 at 02:56 PM.
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Old 31st March 2020, 03:11 PM   #52
dann
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
The site as a whole may be woo, I'm not sure because I don't frequent it, but that particular article is good and not woo.

How do you know that?

Quote:
Since reading it, I've been supplementing with vitamin D.

According to the article, that may be a good idea if you were vitamin D deficient to begin with: "Deficiency (!) in vitamin D may predispose people to infection"
The article is from 2006 and obviously not about the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, but don't let that stop you.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 31st March 2020, 03:31 PM   #53
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I've been supplementing Vitamin D under doctor's orders for a couple of years. Sunshine doesn't give me D, it gives me cancer.
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Old 31st March 2020, 03:58 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
How do you know that?




According to the article, that may be a good idea if you were vitamin D deficient to begin with: "Deficiency (!) in vitamin D may predispose people to infection"
The article is from 2006 and obviously not about the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, but don't let that stop you.


How do I know it's not woo? Surprised you'd be on this site and not know how to determine that. It's a basic skill you should learn if you don't have it. With this article, I know because it provides references where I can track down and verify the claims made. Personally I like to use
https://sci-hub.tw to access the scientific papers used in articles.

This particular article also uses anecdotal data but I can take that for what it is and it doesn't use the anecdote as the foundation of an argument.

Not sure why you're connecting the article to Covid 19, I never made that connection and it's pretty obvious it wasn't about that.

As for deficiency, absolutely! I made a judgment call because I eat a vegan diet so have no food source of vitamin D, and have been getting very little sun exposure for several months. So I made a calculated decision based on research of the risks vs rewards.

The amount I supplement is the RDA, pretty risk-free when you don't have a dietary source and aren't getting much sun.

Last edited by Doghouse Reilly; 31st March 2020 at 04:00 PM.
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Old 31st March 2020, 04:02 PM   #55
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
As far as I'm concerned the case is closed.
Ok, thanks.

I'm sure the rest of us can manage without you.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Some studies indicate that vitamin D levels in Japan are actually dangerously low. Here's one: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ar...l.pone.0213264

There's much more!
Thanks!

I winder if pregnant women feature in Japanese numbers. Not easy to check, I imagine.
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Old 31st March 2020, 04:17 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
WRT Australia they have performed 9600 tests per million people vs 3100 per million people in the US
Are people with symptoms the only ones tested? Because this is the case in Australia. If someone goes to a hospital or a clinic wanting to be tested because of a sniffle or a tickle in the throat, they are sent on their way, often with a verbal send off for trying to waste time and money.
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Old 31st March 2020, 04:27 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Itís an issue in the UK. Government even provides vitamin D supplements for free for people on benefits. Cases of rickets have been increasing and the consensus seems to be that a healthy diet will only provide about 10% of the recommended daily amount and because kids arenít playing out as much, especially during winter and autumn they arenít producing enough either.
Yes, I actually corrected myself in my post to say that it wasn't hard to grasp at all. Though I was more imagining the otaku gamer culture and I have already accepted being corrected on the subject of less-sunny locations.
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Old 31st March 2020, 04:29 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Ok, thanks.

I'm sure the rest of us can manage without you.



Thanks!

I winder if pregnant women feature in Japanese numbers. Not easy to check, I imagine.
Yeah, I know, I was over the top and dramatic in the way I phrased things, I was feeling frustrated. But I don't think that negates everything I said. When I heard the latest Fauci/cdc projections, I wrote that in a very self assured way.

I still stand by many or most of my points and haven't received answers to most of them.

Last edited by Doghouse Reilly; 31st March 2020 at 04:31 PM.
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Old 31st March 2020, 04:46 PM   #59
JeanTate
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Yeah, I know, I was over the top and dramatic in the way I phrased things, I was feeling frustrated. But I don't think that negates everything I said. When I heard the latest Fauci/cdc projections, I wrote that in a very self assured way.

I still stand by many or most of my points and haven't received answers to most of them.
(my bold)

May I ask you to list those points, directly relevant to this particular thread, for which you feel you have not received answers?
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Old 2nd April 2020, 04:43 AM   #60
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I've already explained Australia.

The Federal government lagged terribly, but generally the population moved swiftly. Why do you think all the toilet rolls disappeared?

Pointing at a few dickheads who went to the beach doesn't mean the rest of us didn't go to ground pretty quickly.

If sunlight or ultra-violet intensity was a factor, you'd expect no cases in Canberra. (It's higher altitude and higher UV)

Here in South Australia we've tested a lot.

The first cases were found quickly and we have a huge number of public servants doing contact tracing.

I'm sorry that this doesn't fit with your expectations.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 06:02 AM   #61
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The BBC are reporting that a Hong Kong sourced study appeasrs to show that masks have had an effect in reducing the spread, contrary to the previous thoughts. The results are still being evaluated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52126735

My guess is that whilst the masks are not much use in protecting against contracting the virus (highest risk there is touching contaminated surfaces and then touching the face), they may help contain the droplets from an infected person contaminating the surfaces initially, reducing the rate of infection. So cultures where mask wearing is more comment may have a degree of protection in the early stages.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 01:48 PM   #62
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
I've already explained Australia.

The Federal government lagged terribly, but generally the population moved swiftly. Why do you think all the toilet rolls disappeared?
Now you're just being silly. Racing is still going on, and schools weren't shut.

The idea that Aussies have shown the way by all self-isolating is total nonsense.

Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Pointing at a few dickheads who went to the beach doesn't mean the rest of us didn't go to ground pretty quickly.
Yeah, right.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...ainer/12092242

Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
If sunlight or ultra-violet intensity was a factor, you'd expect no cases in Canberra. (It's higher altitude and higher UV)
Why there be no cases? You're so desperate to disprove a point you know nothing about you're stating things that are just laughable.

Not to mention the obvious fact that 99.99% of ACT workers are office johnnies who never get to see the sun during the week, then have no beaches on the weekend.

(And it's vitamin D, not sunlight, per se)

Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Here in South Australia we've tested a lot.

The first cases were found quickly and we have a huge number of public servants doing contact tracing.
Yes, Aussie has tested a whopping 1% of the population. That must have found all the cases.

Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
I'm sorry that this doesn't fit with your expectations.
Whose expectations are we talking about here? I made mine plain at the very first post:

Quote:
Nothing makes sense - different climates, different populations, different genetics, different demographics...

It seems to me the answer - if there is one - might be quite important.

Originally Posted by Mikemcc View Post
My guess is that whilst the masks are not much use in protecting against contracting the virus (highest risk there is touching contaminated surfaces and then touching the face), they may help contain the droplets from an infected person contaminating the surfaces initially, reducing the rate of infection. So cultures where mask wearing is more comment may have a degree of protection in the early stages.
I agree with that entirely.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 03:18 PM   #63
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This topic is about why some countries appear to have surprisingly high levels of resistance to Covid-19. So it's okay to throw suggestions around, and we should be able to do that without being accused of peddling woo or riding our hobby-horses. I suggested vitamin D as a possibilty earlier, but that was just a hypothesis I thought was worth discussing. I think it's okay to suggest most any hypothesis, even if it's something we would normally be very sceptical about. Maybe one of those far out suggestions turns out to have something going for it after all?
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Old 2nd April 2020, 03:23 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
N<snip>

Not to mention the obvious fact that 99.99% of ACT workers are office johnnies who never get to see the sun during the week, then have no beaches on the weekend.

<snip>
When this is all over and we're all back to normal, if you have a chance, go visit the ACT, hang out with some of the locals who are not office johnnies, and ask around - from M to F - where everyone goes on weekends ...
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Old 2nd April 2020, 03:30 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Not to mention the obvious fact that 99.99% of ACT workers are office johnnies who never get to see the sun during the week, then have no beaches on the weekend.
Actually *nerd snort* it's about 60%.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 03:39 PM   #66
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It is worth looking at the data with this site selecting the countries of interest, select cases and logarithmic view. Canada and Australia essentially track the same line as the US or spain or Italy. They are just a little earlier in their outbreak. (Australia may be dropping off the line a little.) South Korea clearly drops off the line (as does China if you include it) Japan drops off a bit but might be making its way back on to the same track as other countries. Hawaii is not tracked. You can also look at deaths, but the data are fewer but again Canada and Australia don't really stand out. Japan does a bit, but again South korea and China are the two who have really dropped off the curve.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
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Old 2nd April 2020, 04:50 PM   #67
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
This topic is about why some countries appear to have surprisingly high levels of resistance to Covid-19. So it's okay to throw suggestions around, and we should be able to do that without being accused of peddling woo or riding our hobby-horses. I suggested vitamin D as a possibilty earlier, but that was just a hypothesis I thought was worth discussing. I think it's okay to suggest most any hypothesis, even if it's something we would normally be very sceptical about. Maybe one of those far out suggestions turns out to have something going for it after all?
Bingo!

That's exactly the point. With a novel disease, pretty much nothing's off the table.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
When this is all over and we're all back to normal, if you have a chance, go visit the ACT, hang out with some of the locals who are not office johnnies, and ask around - from M to F - where everyone goes on weekends ...
Of the 198 countries and million places to visit on the planet, I think Canberra is just in front of the slums of Kokata on my list of places to go - they're almost in a tie for 999,911th.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Actually *nerd snort* it's about 60%.
And the other 40% work in industries servicing that 60%.

Sorry mate, but apart from their rugby team, I've never found anything to like about the place.

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
It is worth looking at the data with this site selecting the countries of interest, select cases and logarithmic view. Canada and Australia essentially track the same line as the US or spain or Italy. They are just a little earlier in their outbreak. (Australia may be dropping off the line a little.) South Korea clearly drops off the line (as does China if you include it) Japan drops off a bit but might be making its way back on to the same track as other countries. Hawaii is not tracked. You can also look at deaths, but the data are fewer but again Canada and Australia don't really stand out. Japan does a bit, but again South korea and China are the two who have really dropped off the curve.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
And Chile!

I note that Chile is another SH country where deaths are less than 0.5%. Brazil & Argentina aren't showing those kind of numbers, but I'd bet testing is patchy there at best.

Aussie has definitely fallen behind the curve and Hawaii never got on it.

The trouble with Hawaii particularly is that they should have been one of the very, very early ones.

I'm wondering if there's some correlation with having had a cold or other respiratory virus in the recent past. Obviously, NH countries coming out of winter, huge numbers of people will have had a cold in the previous few moths, but none in NZ/Aussie/RSA & probably Chile.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 04:51 PM   #68
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
And the other 40% work in industries servicing that 60%.

Sorry mate, but apart from their rugby team, I've never found anything to like about the place.
There are a lot of stereotypes about Canberra that get thrown about by people who have never spent a great deal of time here.
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Old 2nd April 2020, 09:35 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
It is worth looking at the data with this site selecting the countries of interest, select cases and logarithmic view. Canada and Australia essentially track the same line as the US or spain or Italy. They are just a little earlier in their outbreak. (Australia may be dropping off the line a little.) South Korea clearly drops off the line (as does China if you include it) Japan drops off a bit but might be making its way back on to the same track as other countries. Hawaii is not tracked. You can also look at deaths, but the data are fewer but again Canada and Australia don't really stand out. Japan does a bit, but again South korea and China are the two who have really dropped off the curve.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
it is weird that Japan definitely started earlier than the USA and so did Hawaii really, Japan has the same line but started earlier and still hasn't reached what the US and Italy have

This one shows Hawaii https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

I don't know why nobody officially counts the known japanese and chinese cases we had of this in early february, but we certainly had them even with our health department going so far as to say these guys weren't contagious because they weren't really all that symptomatic. Hawaii should be Italy by now with the negligence it has shown this virus and yet I don't think we're at 300 official cases yet
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Old 2nd April 2020, 09:41 PM   #70
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
It is worth looking at the data with this site selecting the countries of interest, select cases and logarithmic view. Canada and Australia essentially track the same line as the US or spain or Italy. They are just a little earlier in their outbreak. (Australia may be dropping off the line a little.) South Korea clearly drops off the line (as does China if you include it) Japan drops off a bit but might be making its way back on to the same track as other countries. Hawaii is not tracked. You can also look at deaths, but the data are fewer but again Canada and Australia don't really stand out. Japan does a bit, but again South korea and China are the two who have really dropped off the curve.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
Wow, if you set it to a linear scale, USA takes off like a rocket!
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Old 2nd April 2020, 11:23 PM   #71
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The world takes off like a rocket if you look at the linear scales on Worldometer: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

They just increased the range of the scale so that it now goes to 60k deaths. Will it be two or three days untill they increase it to 70k, I wonder? And that's just the registered ones. We keep talking about what's happening in our advanced countries, but how will this play out in the rest of the world?
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Old 3rd April 2020, 12:07 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
It is worth looking at the data with this site selecting the countries of interest, select cases and logarithmic view. Canada and Australia essentially track the same line as the US or spain or Italy. They are just a little earlier in their outbreak. (Australia may be dropping off the line a little.) South Korea clearly drops off the line (as does China if you include it) Japan drops off a bit but might be making its way back on to the same track as other countries. Hawaii is not tracked. You can also look at deaths, but the data are fewer but again Canada and Australia don't really stand out. Japan does a bit, but again South korea and China are the two who have really dropped off the curve.

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/
I suggest that people watch this video first https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc. It explains the graph in the above link.

The short version of this YouTube
The graph
1. The vertical axis is the log of new cases
2. The horizontal axis is the log of confirmed cases
3. All countries lines go along the same line until they take measures to control the spread of the virus.
4. Then the line drops.
5. Time is the third dimension to the graph.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 12:15 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
[snip>

Of the 198 countries and million places to visit on the planet, I think Canberra is just in front of the slums of Kokata on my list of places to go - they're almost in a tie for 999,911th.



And the other 40% work in industries servicing that 60%.

Sorry mate, but apart from their rugby team, I've never found anything to like about the place.


<snip>
It shows how little you know about Canberra. Apart from the public service it has two other major industries. One is domestic tourists and the other is students from interstate and international.

The fact that Canberra had a thriving tourist industry shows that in fact it is a highly desirable place to visit.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 01:51 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
We keep talking about what's happening in our advanced countries, but how will this play out in the rest of the world?
Philippines has just started to turn very ugly, and India will as well. Then we have Africa.

We're about to find out.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 01:59 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Doghouse Reilly View Post
Yeah, I know, I was over the top and dramatic in the way I phrased things, I was feeling frustrated. But I don't think that negates everything I said. When I heard the latest Fauci/cdc projections, I wrote that in a very self assured way.

I still stand by many or most of my points and haven't received answers to most of them.

Do you think all the medical staff do this every year?

Or do you think they're actors?

Do you think the entire working medical community has been fooled? Or are in on it? Or does this sort of thing every flu season but we just don't notice?


If you want to call the virus a hoax, or just 'normal flu', then you have to explain what's (apparently) going on in almost every hospital in almost every country in the world. How do you account for that?

The working explanation is that you're wrong.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 02:01 AM   #76
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Why are there so few cases in russia? Id say it was totally fake but theyve been sending supplies to the US!
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Old 3rd April 2020, 02:03 AM   #77
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Oh well, it's currently 15 degrees in Adelaide and pissing down with rain, so we'll have an explosion of cases!

No wait! We're all at home and everything is shut.

Phew! Dodged a bullet.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 02:47 AM   #78
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There are some scientists looking at this very question and an osteopathic university in USA has come up with a suggestion BCG vaccination could be linked.

UK* might upset their theory, but worth a look: https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/severi...mn39DvVwyvg344

*Could also be a result of very low test numbers.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 05:39 AM   #79
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It will be interesting to see what happens in Australia as it starts to enter itís winter flue season next month.
Originally Posted by Mikemcc View Post
The BBC are reporting that a Hong Kong sourced study appeasrs to show that masks have had an effect in reducing the spread, contrary to the previous thoughts. The results are still being evaluated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52126735

My guess is that whilst the masks are not much use in protecting against contracting the virus (highest risk there is touching contaminated surfaces and then touching the face), they may help contain the droplets from an infected person contaminating the surfaces initially, reducing the rate of infection. So cultures where mask wearing is more comment may have a degree of protection in the early stages.
Widespread use of masks is a possible explanation for low infection rates in Japan, China, Hong Kong, etc.
My assumption all along has been that masks wouldnít do much to protect people from the virus, but if everyone wears them it could significantly slow down the spread. I think the issue with trying this right now is that there are barely enough masks for medical staff who need them a lot more.
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Old 3rd April 2020, 05:40 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There are some scientists looking at this very question and an osteopathic university in USA has come up with a suggestion BCG vaccination could be linked.

UK* might upset their theory, but worth a look: https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/severi...mn39DvVwyvg344

*Could also be a result of very low test numbers.
My wife was just telling me about this theory.

It sounds...unlikely in my humble opinion.

France apparently had mandatory BGC from 1950-2007. But it also has a high death toll.

http://www.bcgatlas.org/
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