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Old 8th April 2020, 11:12 PM   #201
Ulf Nereng
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So far Hawaii is a bit more than 1% fatality for confirmed cases (6 deaths out of 400 something confirmed cases). So while our infection rate may or may not be low, our fatality rate is higher than some. One of our DOH is saying we are testing more per capita than South Korea, not sure if that's true.
Worldometer now shows number of tests and tests per 1M, including for individual states in US. It gives about 11k per 1M for Hawai versus 9k for S Korea.

It's interesting to compare the various countries testing. Iceland and Faroe islands looks like they've decided to test everybody! lol
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:14 AM   #202
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
What are the rates of asthma in the anomalous places?
I did have a look at asthma and hayfever rates for China & several other countries a few weeks back, but there were no standout stats - every country is in pretty much the same shape, with massive increases over the past few decades.

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So far Hawaii is a bit more than 1% fatality for confirmed cases (6 deaths out of 400 something confirmed cases). So while our infection rate may or may not be low, our fatality rate is higher than some.
The point is more the tiny numbers and the early arrival of the virus.

Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
It's interesting to compare the various countries testing. Iceland and Faroe islands looks like they've decided to test everybody! lol
Small populations, sensible move and providing excellent and complete data.

Good on them.
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:24 AM   #203
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Luckily, Ardern has bugger all to do with it. She's just the vacant face at the front.

Ain't no way Winston's going to allow her to lift restrictions while his voters are at risk.

Be thankful we don't have a president.
Nice picture of mom and daughter

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle...ectid=12323603

On todays 29 number I will back her for now on the science of Covid
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:33 AM   #204
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
On todays 29 number I will back her for now on the science of Covid
While I've talked our numbers up, I'm still somewhat sceptical of the numbers. The only positive I find is that Middlemore has very few cases, and if it's going to be spreading in NZ, south Auckland's where it will be happening.
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Old 9th April 2020, 12:37 AM   #205
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So far Hawaii is a bit more than 1% fatality for confirmed cases (6 deaths out of 400 something confirmed cases). So while our infection rate may or may not be low, our fatality rate is higher than some. One of our DOH is saying we are testing more per capita than South Korea, not sure if that's true.

What is air pollution like in Hawaii?
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Old 9th April 2020, 01:08 AM   #206
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Pretty nice, though people talk about "the vog" some sort of smoggy stuff from volcanos, but they have been quiet lately

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/...s-for-air.html
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Old 9th April 2020, 01:57 AM   #207
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I don't know why I bother posting this, because it will just be hand-waved away again...

Our State is particularly pleased that the quarantine measures - which are backed up by Police making random home visits - are working well.

No new cases in South Australia in the last 24 hours.

Of course, we still have to wait for the cases flown in from the various cruise ships to to recover.

We've had some interesting local outbreaks.

In the Barossa a group of Swedish tourists infected people that ate in the same restaurant.

A small group of American tourists passed on the disease locally.

But the weird one? A group of Quantas baggage handlers at Adelaide airport.

This one bothered me, because it suggests that they caught it from handling suitcases.

However, all the victims are currently successfully quarantined, and the Police Commissioner has praised the public for compliance with all the social distancing measures.

Hand-wave away...
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Old 9th April 2020, 02:26 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
However, all the victims are currently successfully quarantined, and the Police Commissioner has praised the public for compliance with all the social distancing measures.

Hand-wave away...
You and lionking think Aussies have been masters at containing the virus - fair enough, the numbers are very good, despite fairly lax measures, including not closing schools.

On the other hand, places like Hawaii are also doing well but haven't taken any measures worth mentioning.

NZ has the best numbers of all, but I'm not arrogant enough to think the extreme measures we've taken - far more stringent than Aussie - is responsible for our excellent position.
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Old 9th April 2020, 02:37 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You and lionking think Aussies have been masters at containing the virus - fair enough, the numbers are very good, despite fairly lax measures, including not closing schools.

On the other hand, places like Hawaii are also doing well but haven't taken any measures worth mentioning.

NZ has the best numbers of all, but I'm not arrogant enough to think the extreme measures we've taken - far more stringent than Aussie - is responsible for our excellent position.
I am of the view that whether luck or good management I'll take it.
The Marist cluster was atrociously managed but contained it seems.
Would the same be true if it had been mid August? That is the important question that we hope to never answer.
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Old 9th April 2020, 02:57 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
It's interesting to compare the various countries testing. Iceland and Faroe islands looks like they've decided to test everybody! lol

And they are still doing an amazing job:
Iceland
Infected: 1,616
Dead: 6
Recovered: 633

Faroe Islands
Infected: 184
Dead: 0
Recovered: 136

The USA (14,808 deaths) will overtake Spain (14,792) today and Italy (17,669) in a couple of days.
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Old 9th April 2020, 05:55 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Worldometer now shows number of tests and tests per 1M, including for individual states in US. It gives about 11k per 1M for Hawai versus 9k for S Korea.

It's interesting to compare the various countries testing. Iceland and Faroe islands looks like they've decided to test everybody! lol
When those tests occurred matters a lot. Testing early when you still have a chance to identify and isolate most of the cases can make a big difference. This is what S Korea did, they tested early and managed stay in front of potential carriers. By the time the US started really ramp up testing it probably had close to a million people potentially spreading the disease so staying ahead of it was going to be impossible.
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Old 9th April 2020, 09:25 AM   #212
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
And they are still doing an amazing job:
Iceland
Infected: 1,616
Dead: 6
Recovered: 633

Faroe Islands
Infected: 184
Dead: 0
Recovered: 136

The USA (14,808 deaths) will overtake Spain (14,792) today and Italy (17,669) in a couple of days.

Low pollution in those locations.
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Old 9th April 2020, 02:21 PM   #213
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Low pollution in those locations.
Canberra had appalling smoke pollution.
2 deaths from 99 cases, not enough data but maybe a clue.

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/sto...d-in-canberra/
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Old 9th April 2020, 03:00 PM   #214
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
On the other hand, places like Hawaii are also doing well but haven't taken any measures worth mentioning.
Not everyone believes this is the case. Could be that Hawaii is just burying it's head in the sand and refusing to even look for the real numbers.

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/sta...907454466?s=20
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Old 9th April 2020, 03:25 PM   #215
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That video from Tulsi is to deal with a fight between the Governor and business interests who has been the cause of the do nothing policies and suicidal actions taken by Hawaii vs the Lt Governor, who is actually a doctor and his backers in the senate.

I dont want this getting derailed as politics, but really a LOT of what the correct faction in Hawaii has done has been informed by you guys here on the JREF, if Hawaii survives this, a lot of you deserve a serious pat on the back. Tulsi throwing her backing behind Dr Green is a promising development

It was pointed out on a recent episode of Twiv that Dr Green is our own Dr Fauci.

He is at war with The Missile Button Governor's Department of Health, who until this week still insisted that asymptomatic (or perhaps more accurately "not yet symptomatic) people cannot transmit the disease, as well as refused to ask for PPE or ventilators

He is constantly walking a fine line not to get sidelined by the governor and twice now the news media had to publish stories letting the public know to throw their weight behind him vs the governor. This is some crazy machine politics of the type hawaii is known for, and believe it or not these guys are all in the same party.

Green vs Park/Anderson and biting his tongue so as not to offend Kermit the Frog is just like watching Fauci bite his tongue around you know who and constantly correct CDC's Mike Tyson on TV

TL;DR Hawaii is doing ok IN SPITE of Bruce Anderson and Sarah Park, and because of Dr Josh Green
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Old 9th April 2020, 03:31 PM   #216
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Low pollution in those locations.
Total numbers per country aren’t really much of an indicator IMO.
CASES/deaths per population would seem to be a more indicative index for successful management (or luck), e.g.,
Iceland cases & deaths per million of population : 4,829 & 18.
Australia : 239 & 2
Hawaii : 311 & 4

I would have thought Faroe and Iceland would have their geographical isolation working in their favour. Perhaps their response was not swift? Certainly cases coming back from overseas were the majority for Australia, so perhaps isolation didn’t work for Iceland.
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Old 9th April 2020, 04:29 PM   #217
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
I would have thought Faroe and Iceland would have their geographical isolation working in their favour. Perhaps their response was not swift? Certainly cases coming back from overseas were the majority for Australia, so perhaps isolation didnít work for Iceland.
Iceland may have had some ski tourists return with it, but they also have Keflavik airport near Reykjavik. Most of the population lives in this area in the southwest of the island.

Being halfway between Europe and the US, along the subarctic flight path, it is a convenient place to refuel. So private jets, charters or planes choosing 'cargo weight' over 'fuel weight' can stop there.

I was there back in the 1990's on a Ryanair charter. Nice airport with a sizable shopping mall area that passengers stroll through as they wait. Perhaps they left the virus with airport staff there as they did.

(On the other side of the US, planes go through Anchorage, Alaska. Mostly large cargo planes and much more jumbo jet traffic due to shipments from SE Asia, but not many smaller planes or charters.)
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Old 9th April 2020, 04:59 PM   #218
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Not everyone believes this is the case. Could be that Hawaii is just burying it's head in the sand and refusing to even look for the real numbers.
No, they'd be knee-deep in corpses and they're not, plus, we have a spy on the ground in Hawaii:

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
TL;DR Hawaii is doing ok IN SPITE of Bruce Anderson and Sarah Park, and because of Dr Josh Green
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Old 9th April 2020, 05:11 PM   #219
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Iceland may have had some ski tourists return with it, but they also have Keflavik airport near Reykjavik. Most of the population lives in this area in the southwest of the island.

Being halfway between Europe and the US, along the subarctic flight path, it is a convenient place to refuel. So private jets, charters or planes choosing 'cargo weight' over 'fuel weight' can stop there.

I was there back in the 1990's on a Ryanair charter. Nice airport with a sizable shopping mall area that passengers stroll through as they wait. Perhaps they left the virus with airport staff there as they did.

(On the other side of the US, planes go through Anchorage, Alaska. Mostly large cargo planes and much more jumbo jet traffic due to shipments from SE Asia, but not many smaller planes or charters.)
Tourism is also a big part of their economy. People come to see the unique landscape, volcanos, and hot springs. It's a popular stop for cruise ships, too.
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Old 9th April 2020, 05:22 PM   #220
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One reason for some countries having low numbers could be luck. If there was a large party where one person had the virus they could then spread it to heaps of people.
Here is where I got the idea from The cluster effect: how social gatherings were rocket fuel for coronavirus
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Old 9th April 2020, 05:24 PM   #221
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Originally Posted by Ulf Nereng View Post
Tourism is also a big part of their economy. People come to see the unique landscape, volcanos, and hot springs. It's a popular stop for cruise ships, too.
True! Places like the Blue Lagoon are so amazing! But I also think those trips are not popular in an Icelandic winter when the virus was spreading around.

Out here, cruises to Alaska are done in Summer.
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Old 9th April 2020, 06:24 PM   #222
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
One reason for some countries having low numbers could be luck. If there was a large party where one person had the virus they could then spread it to heaps of people.
That would preclude places like Hawaii, where every day is a party, but you're right on super-spreading events. One church service accounts for a large percentage of South Korea's cases.

The other thing about parties is, it doesn't appear to be spreading through the air, but food or at least fingers. We have a perfect example of a wedding party of 65 people where half the guests were infected and none of the staff.
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Old 9th April 2020, 07:02 PM   #223
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
.

The other thing about parties is, it doesn't appear to be spreading through the air, but food or at least fingers. We have a perfect example of a wedding party of 65 people where half the guests were infected and none of the staff.
Isn't it more likely through air in the case of guests but not staff?

After all, wedding staff are touching ALL of the guests used items: plates, utensils, glasses, chairs. The guests primarily only touch their own unless its a buffet or something. Guests also whisper closely during 'quiet parts' and talk louder and closer during the 'loud parts'.

The staff will be standing while guests are seated, they aren't hugging or kissing anyone, and they won't be too close to the dancing or singing. Bartenders have a natural barrier of a few feet, as does a band or a DJ.
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Old 9th April 2020, 07:57 PM   #224
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Iceland may have had some ski tourists return with it, but they also have Keflavik airport near Reykjavik. Most of the population lives in this area in the southwest of the island.
The numbers that I can find indicates that 78% of their infections were transmitted within the country, e.g., 309 from overseas and 965 of local origin.
https://www.covid.is/data
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-infection/
Quote:
Being halfway between Europe and the US, along the subarctic flight path, it is a convenient place to refuel. So private jets, charters or planes choosing 'cargo weight' over 'fuel weight' can stop there.
Have you seen a plane refuel? It is, or can be, done without anyone onboard leaving the plane.
Local airport ground crew do all the work. The closest the Icelanders would need to come to an aircrew would be to have the job ticket signed off - and you could do that electronically. So, I don't think refuelling aircraft are a source. We have a similar issue in Australia, with cruise ships docking to refuel. But again, no one on the vessel needs to leave it for it to be refuelled.
Quote:
I was there back in the 1990's on a Ryanair charter. Nice airport with a sizable shopping mall area that passengers stroll through as they wait. Perhaps they left the virus with airport staff there as they did.
And?
Quote:
(On the other side of the US, planes go through Anchorage, Alaska. Mostly large cargo planes and much more jumbo jet traffic due to shipments from SE Asia, but not many smaller planes or charters.)
And all of the aircrew remain onboard while refuelling - they don't "stroll through [the airport shopping mall] as they wait"
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Old 9th April 2020, 07:59 PM   #225
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Isn't it more likely through air in the case of guests but not staff?
No, the other way round. Staff are delivering drinks and getting fairly close to guests.

Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
The guests primarily only touch their own unless its a buffet or something. Guests also whisper closely during 'quiet parts' and talk louder and closer during the 'loud parts'.
I'm told it was a buffet, but I haven't seen that confirmed in the press. That would be fairly standard for a NZ wedding.

Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
The staff will be standing while guests are seated, they aren't hugging or kissing anyone, and they won't be too close to the dancing or singing. Bartenders have a natural barrier of a few feet, as does a band or a DJ.
I'm not sure how one guest would hug or kiss half the guests, either, but bar staff would have been busy and the bar isn't very wide, coupled with people leaning over ordering drinks when the music's on. I would have thought that would be the most likely place of all to get an airborne virus.
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Old 9th April 2020, 08:01 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Not everyone believes this is the case. Could be that Hawaii is just burying it's head in the sand and refusing to even look for the real numbers.

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/sta...907454466?s=20
If anyone wants to see what this is all about, the beginning of this, yesterday's senate meeting has Hawaii's Dr Fauci, Lt Governor Dr Josh Green talking about Hawaii's version of Trump's CDC, the Missile Button Governor's Department of Health and fake news

http://olelo.granicus.com/player/clip/76691?view_id=13
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Old 9th April 2020, 08:21 PM   #227
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Isn't it more likely through air in the case of guests but not staff?

After all, wedding staff are touching ALL of the guests used items: plates, utensils, glasses, chairs. The guests primarily only touch their own unless its a buffet or something. Guests also whisper closely during 'quiet parts' and talk louder and closer during the 'loud parts'.

The staff will be standing while guests are seated, they aren't hugging or kissing anyone, and they won't be too close to the dancing or singing. Bartenders have a natural barrier of a few feet, as does a band or a DJ.
This is the part really hurting my brain. I hope I live thru this to really see what the hell the transmission is.

They tell us not to put our hands near our mouths but they tell us all food is safe, even cold fruits and veggies from the "essential" farmer's markets

These two things really can't both be true.

Is it airborne?

Is it a loading issue where you really do have to have sustained contact with an infected? Are the super spreaders like china mentioned just outliers?

What the hell is this thing
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Old 9th April 2020, 08:56 PM   #228
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
That would preclude places like Hawaii, where every day is a party, but you're right on super-spreading events. One church service accounts for a large percentage of South Korea's cases.

The other thing about parties is, it doesn't appear to be spreading through the air, but food or at least fingers. We have a perfect example of a wedding party of 65 people where half the guests were infected and none of the staff.
i.e. none of the people who cooked or served the food got it, but all the people who went around hugging, kissing, dancing, did.
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Old 9th April 2020, 09:01 PM   #229
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
This is the part really hurting my brain. I hope I live thru this to really see what the hell the transmission is.

They tell us not to put our hands near our mouths but they tell us all food is safe, even cold fruits and veggies from the "essential" farmer's markets

These two things really can't both be true.

Is it airborne?

Is it a loading issue where you really do have to have sustained contact with an infected? Are the super spreaders like china mentioned just outliers?

What the hell is this thing
The problem is that the messages have to be kept simple.

Keep your fingers out of your eyes and nose is considered too complex, so the message is "don't touch your face".

There is evidence that the virus can be in feces, but no evidence you can catch corona virus by eating food.

You have to wash contaminated surfaces, so that you don't put the virus in your nose and eyes.

You really don't want to breathe it in because your lungs are the ideal environment.

If you dig around, there are plenty of studies now finding active virus in the air.

(i.e. every time an infected person shouts, coughs, breathes hard through exertion.)
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Old 9th April 2020, 09:04 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
i.e. none of the people who cooked or served the food got it, but all the people who went around hugging, kissing, dancing, did.
And shaking hands.
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Old 9th April 2020, 11:09 PM   #231
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You and lionking think Aussies have been masters at containing the virus - fair enough, the numbers are very good, despite fairly lax measures, including not closing schools.

On the other hand, places like Hawaii are also doing well but haven't taken any measures worth mentioning.

NZ has the best numbers of all, but I'm not arrogant enough to think the extreme measures we've taken - far more stringent than Aussie - is responsible for our excellent position.
Trouble is that the Australian numbers are not very good. We have a lockdown and have reduced our new cases to only about 30% of the previous rate. These numbers are since two weeks after the lockdown began. I would want those numbers to be close to zero. I only hope these people are the ones that were slow in getting tested and still got the virus before the lockdown began.
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Old 10th April 2020, 12:51 AM   #232
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Low pollution in those locations.

Yes, if you stay away from the volcanoes on Iceland!
But it seems to be a question of testing, primarily, and acting accordingly:
The fortunate coincidence that helped the Faroe Islands be super prepared for virus testing.
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Old 10th April 2020, 12:52 AM   #233
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
This is the part really hurting my brain. I hope I live thru this to really see what the hell the transmission is.

They tell us not to put our hands near our mouths but they tell us all food is safe, even cold fruits and veggies from the "essential" farmer's markets

These two things really can't both be true.

Is it airborne?

Is it a loading issue where you really do have to have sustained contact with an infected? Are the super spreaders like china mentioned just outliers?

What the hell is this thing
Most of the studies I have seen recently are saying that droplet contact is the transmission vector. Droplets have a 1-2 metre range in air, so if you get that close to an infectious person you are at risk of breathing in enough viral load to be infected. Secondary transmission is surface, so touching an infected person's hands if they have coughed on them, or a surface they have coughed, sneezed or breathed near. once contaminated if you touch the mucus membranes of your mouth, nose or eyes you can introduce a viral load.

Food is safe, but fruit and veggies can carry it on their surface, so need to be washed with running water for 30-45 seconds.

Soap kills it, so washing your hands for 20 seconds, wrists and fingernails too, will work. Washing surfaces that can be contaminated with soap and water will clean them and prevent transmission.

Alcohol also works, so any hand sanitizer with 60-70% or more will work.
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Old 10th April 2020, 03:05 AM   #234
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Trouble is that the Australian numbers are not very good. We have a lockdown and have reduced our new cases to only about 30% of the previous rate. These numbers are since two weeks after the lockdown began. I would want those numbers to be close to zero. I only hope these people are the ones that were slow in getting tested and still got the virus before the lockdown began.
The next couple of weeks will be interesting for both sides of the Tasman.
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Old 10th April 2020, 03:49 AM   #235
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Originally Posted by EHocking View Post
Total numbers per country arenít really much of an indicator IMO.
CASES/deaths per population would seem to be a more indicative index for successful management (or luck), e.g.,
Iceland cases & deaths per million of population : 4,829 & 18.
Australia : 239 & 2
Hawaii : 311 & 4

I would have thought Faroe and Iceland would have their geographical isolation working in their favour. Perhaps their response was not swift? Certainly cases coming back from overseas were the majority for Australia, so perhaps isolation didnít work for Iceland.

This is of course entirely speculation but I think we may find that there are two contributory factors, one the density of population when an infection starts (so in London especially bad because of public transport) and two the long term damage to health of living with terrible pollution.
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Old 10th April 2020, 04:43 AM   #236
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If Covid-19 is related to air pollution then that might explain the children who are often little-effected by the disease. Children's lungs have not been exposed to the pollution for as long as older people. Any cumulative damage to the lungs from pollution will put older people in a hierarchy with the most vulnerable to terrible symptoms being the eldest and the least vulnerable being the young. It's speculation but it seems right. Young kids have young lungs and it helps them fight when they become infected.
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Old 10th April 2020, 06:26 AM   #237
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CNN: NY has more coronavirus cases than any country.
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Old 10th April 2020, 07:26 AM   #238
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
CNN: NY has more coronavirus cases than any country.
The melting pot has become the Petri Dish.
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Old 10th April 2020, 10:28 AM   #239
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Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
CNN: NY has more coronavirus cases than any country.
New York City or New York State?
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Old 10th April 2020, 10:50 AM   #240
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
so touching an infected person's hands if they have coughed on them, or a surface they have coughed, sneezed or breathed near. once contaminated if you touch the mucus membranes of your mouth, nose or eyes you can introduce a viral load.

Food is safe,
How are these two things simultaneously true?
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