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Old 9th November 2020, 06:45 PM   #281
TahiniBinShawarma
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
You keep claiming that the multiple studies presented which show Benfords Law does not apply to elections are somehow not representative of the consensus. Yet you've failed to bring one drop of evidence that vote counts do obey Benfords Law. Why not show us these many more studies that do agree with your take and show how wrong the, according to you, lone crank PhDs who wrote these papers are?
I don't think that it can prove election fraud. It can point to "possible" fraud. It will identify anomalies, but those anomalies could be nothing.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:46 PM   #282
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Failing Benford's law does not indicate election fraud. At best, it indicates election anomaly.

For voter fraud, you actually have to have evidence of fraud.

As in, show something actually fraudulent. Fraud means someone did something wrong. Who did it and what did they do?

Other than that you have nothing but smoke and mirrors.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:47 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
I'm aware of that. It seems to me that one reason to have some confidence here is that this technique has clearly seen quite a bit of use over a long period of time in other elections, hence it isn't something that has been plucked from nowhere just to defend trump. It doesn't really matter though, since I very much doubt that these mathematical arguments, regardless of how off the data is, will in and of themselves be accepted as proof of anything. At most they help open the door for an investigation.
I don't understand how it was used elsewhere and it doesn't sound like you do either. You're just sailing by that fact and the fact that mathematical models in themselves do not prove election fraud.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:47 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
BS.

The DoJ has a long standing policy of not getting involved in elections, similar to their policy of not indicting sitting presidents.

So what happens today? Esper, who doesn't like the military involvement with protesters and called Trump out on it, is fired. He is replaced by a Trump yes-man, who has no problem with the Insurrection Act.

Then Barr has this memo allowing the federal DoJ to be involved in the election.
I thought the election was over?
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:48 PM   #285
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Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma View Post
I thought the election was over?
It's not - try to keep up.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:49 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by pgwenthold View Post
Failing Benford's law does not indicate election fraud. At best, it indicates election anomaly.

For voter fraud, you actually have to have evidence of fraud.

As in, show something actually fraudulent. Fraud means someone did something wrong. Who did it and what did they do?

Other than that you have nothing but smoke and mirrors.
Correct, it can show an anomaly, which could be fraud, but the law in itself is only good at finding the anomaly. To prove fraud, you need something more than Benford's law.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:49 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
Benford's Law is Empirical what more do you require?
So is Ohm's Law. Let's use that too.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:50 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
But why would the last digit follow Benford's Law? That makes no sense.....but I didn't want to say anything because I wasn't sure. Well, now I'm sure. The last digit of anything won't follow Benford's Law.
It been a long day and I am saying last when I mean first and first when I mean last. On that note, I happily withdraw for a bit :-)
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:50 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
It's not - try to keep up.
I thought Biden won, and everything else was a conspiracy theory?
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:52 PM   #290
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I don't understand how it was used elsewhere and it doesn't sound like you do either. You're just sailing by that fact and the fact that mathematical models in themselves do not prove election fraud.
Meh, what interested my was that you folks have a hair trigger for saying that things that help trump are debunked. I couldn't see what your basis was for saying that this law that I had heard about for years was debunked, I still don't.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:53 PM   #291
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
BS.

The DoJ has a long standing policy of not getting involved in elections, similar to their policy of not indicting sitting presidents.

So what happens today? Esper, who doesn't like the military involvement with protesters and called Trump out on it, is fired. He is replaced by a Trump yes-man, who has no problem with the Insurrection Act.

Then Barr has this memo allowing the federal DoJ to be involved in the election.
No, that's not what the memo said. It's about as non-committal a memo as I have ever read. I also think you're reading too much into the Esper firing.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:53 PM   #292
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David Frum: "It's just bizarre to say, 'We want to count every legal vote' when your primary election strategy is to disenfranchise legal voters."

Can I rant about 2000 for a moment? George W. Bush "won" with 537 more votes. In that election, a few thousand residents in Palm Beach voted for Pat freaking Buchanan. The reason? An illegal butterfly ballot. Yes, the ballot was created by some local Democrat, but the people there had no intention of voting for an anti-immigration, anti-Semitic bigot. Naturally, Republicans didn't give a **** about the will of the people of Florida (or the will of the country for that matter because 500,000 more Americans voted for Gore). Now they care about free and fair elections? No. They care about winning.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:55 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
The DoJ has a long standing policy of not getting involved in elections, similar to their policy of not indicting sitting presidents.
Is that true? Who investigates election fraud charges? Is that normally as state function? is it a state crime or a federal crime?

I'm assuming that if there are allegations of federal crimes, then the FBI would investigate. If I print up a bunch of ballots, mark them for Joe Biden, and drop them in a mailbox, would that not be a federal crime? Maybe not. If it isn't, then the FBI should butt out.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:56 PM   #294
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Quote:
There is at least as much evidence that something isn't right as there was before the recount in 1960 discovered mass "human frailty". Naturally prior to an investigation, it's circumstantial.
To what specific “circumstantial” evidence are you referring?
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:57 PM   #295
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Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma View Post
I don't think that it can prove election fraud. It can point to "possible" fraud. It will identify anomalies, but those anomalies could be nothing.
That's a simplified version of what the studies presented here say. Unfortunately for shuttlt, he's claiming that these are by lone cranks and not representative of the consensus. He says he's "been aware" of Benfords Law for years, so I guess he's the expert. Certainly not all the people that keep laboring to explain it to him, they're probably lone cranks too.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:58 PM   #296
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Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma View Post
I thought Biden won, and everything else was a conspiracy theory?
Pretty much, its good you understand that

Our current President doesn't understand that. He's an idiot who still has control of a vast security and military apparatus. That's a dangerous situation.
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Old 9th November 2020, 06:59 PM   #297
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Meh, what interested my was that you folks have a hair trigger for saying that things that help trump are debunked. I couldn't see what your basis was for saying that this law that I had heard about for years was debunked, I still don't.
Nonsense. You clearly didn't read my earlier post. I'm not going to buy into a mathematical formula as proof that Trump was cheated.

Also given that 4 million more Americans voted for Biden I could give a ****.

Trump lost. Get over it.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:00 PM   #298
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Originally Posted by No Other View Post
Benford's Law is Empirical what more do you require?
No it isn't. The definition of "emprical" is

"based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic."

That isn't the case with Benford's Law. It is purely number theory. No observation required.

The application of Benford's Law to a specific problem may be empirical.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:03 PM   #299
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Is that true? Who investigates election fraud charges? Is that normally as state function? is it a state crime or a federal crime?

I'm assuming that if there are allegations of federal crimes, then the FBI would investigate. If I print up a bunch of ballots, mark them for Joe Biden, and drop them in a mailbox, would that not be a federal crime? Maybe not. If it isn't, then the FBI should butt out.

If it's a federal election it's a federal crime. They try to wait until after, I don't think there are set rules against investigating. They have to walk the line of not getting involved in an election while at the same time taking serious allegations seriously.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:04 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Pretty much, its good you understand that

Our current President doesn't understand that. He's an idiot who still has control of a vast security and military apparatus. That's a dangerous situation.
It's not really that dangerous, it's worked till now, it will work from now on.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:06 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Nonsense. You clearly didn't read my earlier post. I'm not going to buy into a mathematical formula as proof that Trump was cheated.

Also given that 4 million more Americans voted for Biden I could give a ****.

Trump lost. Get over it.

I'd think they would use it to target where they wanted to look for fraud because it identifies anomalies, but it seems like they are taking the shotgun approach.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:08 PM   #302
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
That's a simplified version of what the studies presented here say. Unfortunately for shuttlt, he's claiming that these are by lone cranks and not representative of the consensus. He says he's "been aware" of Benfords Law for years, so I guess he's the expert. Certainly not all the people that keep laboring to explain it to him, they're probably lone cranks too.
Yeah, I don't think Team Trump is taking Benford's law into court as their evidence.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:08 PM   #303
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
To what specific “circumstantial” evidence are you referring?
Again, in 1960 I believe there was an unexplained pause in counting from democrat districts while the Republican numbers came in, only for enough Democrat votes to come in when it was clear how many were needed. You then have suspicious variance between districts and based on past elections. You had evasiveness and secrecy from the counting operations. You had the dead voting. Those seem to map pretty well between my understanding of 1960 and today. You also obviously have the 6000 vote glitch, the adding an extra zero by mistake error, the various bits of Veritas evidence and other recordings of people supposedly altering ballots and so on. Who knows? Maybe it will go like 1960 and huge fraud will be discovered, but it won't matter?
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:10 PM   #304
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Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma View Post
If it's a federal election it's a federal crime. They try to wait until after, I don't think there are set rules against investigating. They have to walk the line of not getting involved in an election while at the same time taking serious allegations seriously.
Ok. I reread the memo, and caught that. Normally, they wait until after the election is certified, and then investigate any allegations of crimes. This time, Barr is saying don't wait for certification, so it does seem to be a change.

I suppose we'll see how it goes. If they actually do anything that interferes with the certification process, I'm sure we'll here about it. I can't say I trust them to be fair, but I will say that I trust the FBI agents to not deliberately go in and cheat the election process, so I think we are safe from a dictatorship.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:11 PM   #305
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Nonsense. You clearly didn't read my earlier post. I'm not going to buy into a mathematical formula as proof that Trump was cheated.

Also given that 4 million more Americans voted for Biden I could give a ****.

Trump lost. Get over it.
I hadn't bothered to touch on it yet, but the original Benfords Law info that Zig linked to was using to to explain the "anomaly" that heavily Democratic areas like Pittsburgh voted more for Biden than for Trump. Seriously.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:14 PM   #306
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Nonsense. You clearly didn't read my earlier post. I'm not going to buy into a mathematical formula as proof that Trump was cheated.
I didn't claim it was proof.

Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Also given that 4 million more Americans voted for Biden I could give a ****.

Trump lost. Get over it.
Exactly. A lot of people don't care if Biden has dementia, if he was taking money from China and Russia or sexually assaulted some woman years ago... they just want Trump gone. I'm not saying those things to knock Biden, or even claiming that they are true, just acknowledging that I understand that a lot of people just don't care.

Last edited by shuttlt; 9th November 2020 at 07:16 PM.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:15 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Again, in 1960 I believe there was an unexplained pause in counting from democrat districts while the Republican numbers came in, only for enough Democrat votes to come in when it was clear how many were needed. You then have suspicious variance between districts and based on past elections. You had evasiveness and secrecy from the counting operations. You had the dead voting. Those seem to map pretty well between my understanding of 1960 and today. You also obviously have the 6000 vote glitch, the adding an extra zero by mistake error, the various bits of Veritas evidence and other recordings of people supposedly altering ballots and so on. Who knows? Maybe it will go like 1960 and huge fraud will be discovered, but it won't matter?
Oh boy, if this is where you're getting your understanding a lot of your confusion is understandable.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:19 PM   #308
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
I didn't claim it was proof.


Exactly. A lot of people don't care if he has dementia, if he was taking money from China and Russia or sexually assaulted some woman years ago... they just want Trump gone. I'm not saying those things to knock Biden, or even claiming that they are true, just acknowledging that I understand that a lot of people just don't care.

What a ridiculous reply.

We are talking about the will of the people not the CTs of nutjobs. The will of the voters bitch slapped Trump and you're throwing turds pulled out of your ass to justify destroying the American democracy.

You'll excuse me when I say **** NO!
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:22 PM   #309
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Oh boy, if this is where you're getting your understanding a lot of your confusion is understandable.
Not really, if you read the rest of the post you'll see that the information I'm putting more weight in isn't that. It's all evidence though that will either check out or not. I suspect everything I have seen from them is either too late to do anything meaningful about (ballot harvesting) or too hard to evidence a significant impact on the result (postal worker claims) even if it were to pan out which it may not.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:22 PM   #310
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Again, in 1960 I believe there was an unexplained pause in counting from democrat districts while the Republican numbers came in, only for enough Democrat votes to come in when it was clear how many were needed. You then have suspicious variance between districts and based on past elections. You had evasiveness and secrecy from the counting operations. You had the dead voting. Those seem to map pretty well between my understanding of 1960 and today. You also obviously have the 6000 vote glitch, the adding an extra zero by mistake error, the various bits of Veritas evidence and other recordings of people supposedly altering ballots and so on. Who knows? Maybe it will go like 1960 and huge fraud will be discovered, but it won't matter?

Get real. Then what happened in 2016 and 2001? Did the GOP pull more shenanigans?
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:23 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Again, in 1960 I believe there was an unexplained pause in counting from democrat districts while the Republican numbers came in, only for enough Democrat votes to come in when it was clear how many were needed. You then have suspicious variance between districts and based on past elections. You had evasiveness and secrecy from the counting operations. You had the dead voting. Those seem to map pretty well between my understanding of 1960 and today. You also obviously have the 6000 vote glitch, the adding an extra zero by mistake error, the various bits of Veritas evidence and other recordings of people supposedly altering ballots and so on. Who knows? Maybe it will go like 1960 and huge fraud will be discovered, but it won't matter?
You’ve presented no evidence, circumstantial or otherwise. You’ve merely made a series of claims. Claims are not evidence.

What is your evidence that substantiates any of these claims?
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:26 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
What a ridiculous reply.

We are talking about the will of the people not the CTs of nutjobs. The will of the voters bitch slapped Trump and you're throwing turds pulled out of your ass to justify destroying the American democracy.

You'll excuse me when I say **** NO!
What? Nothing we say on this forum has any impact on the destruction or non-destruction of American democracy. If there was significant cheating of the scale of 1960, that would seem to be a problem for American democracy as well. We will see what comes out.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:27 PM   #313
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
Not really, if you read the rest of the post you'll see that the information I'm putting more weight in isn't that. It's all evidence though that will either check out or not. I suspect everything I have seen from them is either too late to do anything meaningful about (ballot harvesting) or too hard to evidence a significant impact on the result (postal worker claims) even if it were to pan out which it may not.
You said it's been a long day, so you probably don't realize that you didn't actually say what information you're putting more weight into, or where you are getting that information from. If you are still using known fraudsters and convicted felons as a trusted source of information that certainly explains why you get so much incorrect.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:30 PM   #314
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
Quote:
It seems like a fine memo to me. It authorizes field agents to investigate credible allegations of voter fraud. Well, that's good. However, it also notes that there will be specious allegations, and those should not be investigated.

In other words, if something looks suspicious, look into it. If it's just cranks complaining, ignore them.
BS.

The DoJ has a long standing policy of not getting involved in elections, similar to their policy of not indicting sitting presidents.
...
Then Barr has this memo allowing the federal DoJ to be involved in the election.
I guess the question is... was this memo a prelude to actions by Barr and the DOJ that are... questionable (i.e. "the memo gave me a pretext for investigating fraud and now I'm going to find it, even where none exists"), or is it a sort of "cover your ass" sort of thing (i.e. Barr realizes that Stubby McBonespurs is cooked, but he doesn't want to follow Esper out the door, so he releases a memo to say "yeah, election fraud is important", but he'll just let it die.)
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:30 PM   #315
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Make no mistake about it- Trump has achieved exactly what he was after by his voter fraud claims (link is to Mediaite article "Republican Trust in Electoral Process Craters by 50% After Trump Loses and Starts Spreading Voter Fraud Conspiracies")-

Quote:
Per a Morning Consult tracking poll, 68% of Republicans reported that they had “a lot” or “some” faith in the nation’s elections just a week before Election Day. That figure was almost identical to the 66% of Democrats who said the same and bit more than the 58% of Independents who agreed.

But when Morning Consult asked the same question now, the number of Republicans answering the same way had fallen by half. This comes after nearly a week of Trump and his surrogates sowing unfounded seeds of doubt and pushing rampant conspiracy theories about fraud after President-Elect Joe Biden was declared the winner of the [election] as hundreds of thousands of mail-in votes were counted in the days after Election Day.
Trump and his enablers keep mouthing words about the American voter being entitled to feel confidence in the democratic process that they take part in to elect their government; it seems pretty obvious to me that their actual aim is to destroy that confidence when the outcome of the process in any given election isn't to their liking.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:31 PM   #316
TahiniBinShawarma
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NEW: Richard Pilger, the official who oversees election crimes has stepped down over Barr's memo:
“Having familiarized myself with the new policy and its ramifications… I must regretfully resign from my role as Director of the Election Crimes Branch.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/u...elections.html
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:33 PM   #317
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
You’ve presented no evidence, circumstantial or otherwise. You’ve merely made a series of claims. Claims are not evidence.

What is your evidence that substantiates any of these claims?
Well, there are the various recordings, eye witness testimony and so forth. I'm sure you know about them as well as I do. If you aren't happy with that, you are going to have to wait and see if there is an investigation. The point of an investigation is to substantiate or refute the claims. Demanding the fruits of the investigation before the investigation is ridiculous. Equally I think Nixon did kind of have to provide that by doing his own investigation before the official investigation that Kennedy was then able to have stopped.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:36 PM   #318
Meadmaker
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
What? Nothing we say on this forum has any impact on the destruction or non-destruction of American democracy.
I'm not sure I agree. I would like to think my actions have at least some singificance.

Admittedly, not much.

I think that we, as citizens, can help maintain or we can hasten the destruction of American democracy. If we say, without evidence, that the wrong guy is in the White House, we are saying that America is not a democracy. I think that contributes to the destruction of American democracy. We can perhaps be forgiven because of our insignificance.

My hostility toward Trump was enhanced greatly when he talked about rigged elections in 2016. Saying something was rigged is a good way to say that we don't really have a democracy. For a candidate to say that, without evidence, I thought was completely irresponsible. For a president to say it is unforgivable. For the people to echo and repeat those claims is predictable, but very dangerous.

For my part, I want to see evidence, and there isn't any, and Trump should put up or shut up.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:36 PM   #319
shuttlt
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Originally Posted by TahiniBinShawarma View Post
@ktbenner


NEW: Richard Pilger, the official who oversees election crimes has stepped down over Barr's memo:
“Having familiarized myself with the new policy and its ramifications… I must regretfully resign from my role as Director of the Election Crimes Branch.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/u...elections.html
If it goes like 1960, this will be stalled out to inauguration at which point there is no constitutional way of undoing it. I'm doubtful that either the FBI, the Supreme Court or Congress are going to want to get involved in a way that changes the result if they can possibly avoid it.
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Old 9th November 2020, 07:37 PM   #320
acbytesla
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Originally Posted by shuttlt View Post
What? Nothing we say on this forum has any impact on the destruction or non-destruction of American democracy. If there was significant cheating of the scale of 1960, that would seem to be a problem for American democracy as well. We will see what comes out.
A bunch of crap thrown against the wall doesn't have much impact. You're right about that.

Neither does your hyperbolic rants comparing this election to 1960. You haven't shown a shred of credible evidence proving cheating in this election. Not any. Only wild ass crazy claims. On the other hand Qanon crazies were arrested trying to deliver fake ballots.
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