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Tags 2017 elections , Alabama elections , Alabama politics , roy moore

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Old 14th November 2017, 08:23 AM   #481
johnny karate
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
When Republicans kept saying things like "won't someone think of the children" - I didn't think they were thinking of them in *that* way.
If there's one good thing about the Trump era, it's allowing us to cross off things from the list of beliefs and principles that conservatives purported to have in the past.

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Old 14th November 2017, 08:26 AM   #482
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It is possible though, that a write-in candidate will split the GOP vote and the Democrat will win.

I notice mixed-message McConnell stopped short of endorsing a write-in candidate today despite saying Moore should drop out.

Most of the Republican denunciations of Moore have been decidedly mealy-mouthed. What I'm getting from them isn't that they have any objection to anything Moore actually did, they're only upset about the image that he brings to the party. He's not really all that different from the rest of them, and he clearly has a strong support base, they just don't like how open he is about his bigotry and degeneracy. Had he been more discreet, and stuck to dog whistles instead of frank language, they'd be fully behind him.
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:10 AM   #483
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We will see the only poll that matters on election day.

If you really believe that Moore is guilty as charged, whether you are Dem or Repub, then the most important thing should be that Moore not become a Senator.

The fact that the Governor would get to pick his replacement is just the way the process works, and that shouldn't matter as long as Moore is kept out of power.

I see no way to keep the Dem from taking his proper seat if he is duly elected.
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:13 AM   #484
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Well, Moore is done one way or another, I think.

He's likely going to lose the election.

If he wins the election, he will probably not be seated.

I'm not sure what the procedure is regarding not seating an elected senator, though.
I don't think he'll lose the election and there is, far as I know, no way he can be refused his seat.

At best, he can be removed after seating him, but that's unlikely at this point, in my uninformed opinion.

Betcha a quarter he's the Alabama junior senator in May.
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:19 AM   #485
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I presume you mean if the Party A vote is split between two candidates then Party B would be elected. The Party B candidate would still be the most popular candidate in that they attracted the most votes - they just wouldn't represent the most popular party.
No, at least perhaps not for your definition of "popular".

Lets say it's High School and there's Cody, James, and Bob. 60% of people at the school really really like Cody and James, and hate Bob. The school has a sizable number of people that really like Bob, and hate James and Cody in fact everyone that likes Bob hates James and Cody. The fact that Cody and James are on the football team while Bob is on the chess team is only tangentially related to how popular they are.

Someone sends out as survey and asks who is your favorite person at the school James, Cody, or Bob. People can only vote once. Some people who like James and Cody like James a little more and some like Cody a little more so their vote is split. Everyone who likes bob votes for him. Results come back and bob has 40% of the vote, James gets 35% and Cody gets 25%.

Is it logical to say that Bob is the most popular person at school despite the fact that 60% like the other two kids more than him but could not express that given the survey constraints?

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Old 14th November 2017, 09:24 AM   #486
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Originally Posted by phiwum View Post
I don't think he'll lose the election and there is, far as I know, no way he can be refused his seat.

At best, he can be removed after seating him, but that's unlikely at this point, in my uninformed opinion.

Betcha a quarter he's the Alabama junior senator in May.
I think he will lose the election.

However, I also think there will be an attempt to expel him from the Senate if he wins the election. I do not think the Senate has any power to do anything about the behavior of Senators before they became Senators, though. So I think the process will not get very far.
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:29 AM   #487
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Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
No, at least perhaps not for your definition of "popular".

Lets say it's High School and there's Cody, James, and Bob. 60% of people at the school really really like Cody and James, and hate Bob. The school has a sizable number of people that really like Bob, and hate James and Cody in fact everyone that likes Bob hates James and Cody. The fact that Cody and James are on the football team while Bob is on the chess team is only tangentially related to how popular they are.

Someone sends out as survey and asks who is your favorite person at the school James, Cody, or Bob. People can only vote once. Some people who like James and Cody like James a little more and some like Cody a little more so their vote is split. Everyone who likes bob votes for him. Results come back and bob has 40% of the vote, James gets 35% and Cody gets 25%.

Is it logical to say that Bob is the most popular person at school despite the fact that 60% like the other two kids more than him but could not express that given the survey constraints?
The thing is that in a FPTP system we have no hard knowledge about second or third choices and thus no firm basis to form conclusions about popularity.

In the case of a write-in candidate for Party A splitting the Party A vote, it may seem reasonable that the Party B candidate is less favoured for the Party A voters than the alternative Party A candidate but we cannot be sure that is the case.

None, some or all of the Party A write-ins may consider the Party A candidate to be their second choice then again, in the absence of the write-in candidate they may have voted Party B (because the Party A candidate really was that objectionable) or not voted at all. We'll never know for sure.
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:38 AM   #488
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The thing is that in a FPTP system we have no hard knowledge about second or third choices and thus no firm basis to form conclusions about popularity.
Which is why it's inherently flawed. I think in this particular case, I don't think you're going to find too many people who would vote for Moore or Strange that would be happy with the Dem candidate.

Should be an IRV system. Rank the candidates. No vote remaining means "other". If "other" gets 51% of the vote. The race is re-run with a complete new set of candidates. To keep the cycle from going on forever, on the second run if "other" wins again, you just act as if the "other" votes never existed and continue until a real candidate has 51%.

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Old 14th November 2017, 09:51 AM   #489
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Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
Which is why it's inherently flawed. I think in this particular case, I don't think you're going to find too many people who would vote for Moore or Strange that would be happy with the Dem candidate.
Really ? I thought that 30% of the population were Independents and that a proportion of those were true "floating voters". I hope that a proportion of any people who have written in for Strange really would prefer a Democratic Party representative to someone who has sexually assaulted minors.

If Moore (if he is guilty) is really the second choice for those GOP members then shame on them

Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
Should be an IRV system. Rank the candidates. No vote remaining means "other". If "other" gets 51% of the vote. The race is re-run with a complete new set of candidates. To keep the cycle from going on forever, on the second run if "other" wins again, you just act as if the "other" votes never existed and continue until a real candidate has 51%.
Don't get me wrong, FPTP is not my preferred electoral system but there are a host of other threads about that - at least one of which is currently active.
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:54 AM   #490
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For all the Rep-leaning voters who prefer Moore over Jones, there is no reason to write in Strange, they can just as well vote Moore, even if they now like him less than before; they still like him more than the Dem opponent.

I thus figure that IF Jones wins, he has more people that prefer him over Moore than vice versa.

What remains unresolved is whether Strange is more popular than Jones despite losing to Jones (and yes, he probably would win a two-way election becausa 'Bama).
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:55 AM   #491
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Really ? I thought that 30% of the population were Independents and that a proportion of those were true "floating voters". I hope that a proportion of any people who have written in for Strange really would prefer a Democratic Party representative to someone who has sexually assaulted minors.

If Moore (if he is guilty) is really the second choice for those GOP members then shame on them
Why should sexual assault bother republicans now, they where fine putting a sexual predator in the white house, so what would one more in the senate mean anyway?
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Old 14th November 2017, 09:57 AM   #492
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
For all the Rep-leaning voters who prefer Moore over Jones, there is no reason to write in Strange, they can just as well vote Moore, even if they now like him less than before; they still like him more than the Dem opponent.

I thus figure that IF Jones wins, he has more people that prefer him over Moore than vice versa.

What remains unresolved is whether Strange is more popular than Jones despite losing to Jones (and yes, he probably would win a two-way election becausa 'Bama).
What does what would happen in theoretical comparisons matter? The party chose who it wanted to represent it and that is that.
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Old 14th November 2017, 10:09 AM   #493
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
What does what would happen in theoretical comparisons matter? The party chose who it wanted to represent it and that is that.
Yeah, but parameters kinda changed since the party made that choice, didn't they? Which is what this thread has been all about lately, isn't it?

If Reps could do primaries over again, they would likely dump Moore, and Strange would get elected Senator by a comfy margin, right? It's tough luck, so to say, for the R party that the allegations were published after the ticket was fixed.
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Old 14th November 2017, 10:13 AM   #494
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Yeah, but parameters kinda changed since the party made that choice, didn't they? Which is what this thread has been all about lately, isn't it?

If Reps could do primaries over again, they would likely dump Moore, and Strange would get elected Senator by a comfy margin, right? It's tough luck, so to say, for the R party that the allegations were published after the ticket was fixed.
Why should sexual assaults suddenly matter to them, they ran a proud sex offender for president, why not senate? This really doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It seems really inconsistent. Barging into changing rooms of young teens is fine but not asking their parents for a date?
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Old 14th November 2017, 10:19 AM   #495
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
Why should sexual assault bother republicans now, they where fine putting a sexual predator in the white house, so what would one more in the senate mean anyway?
Dems ceded that high ground decades ago.
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Old 14th November 2017, 10:25 AM   #496
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Originally Posted by ahhell View Post
Dems ceded that high ground decades ago.
...and republicans gave it right back.
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Old 14th November 2017, 10:25 AM   #497
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http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/14/politi...ess/index.html

Sounds like Moore will fit right in if he's guilty.
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Old 14th November 2017, 10:42 AM   #498
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Really ? I thought that 30% of the population were Independents and that a proportion of those were true "floating voters". I hope that a proportion of any people who have written in for Strange really would prefer a Democratic Party representative to someone who has sexually assaulted minors.

I believe you are thinking of the U.S. electorate at large.

We're talking about Alabama.

Quote:

If Moore (if he is guilty) is really the second choice for those GOP members then shame on them

<snip>

"Shame on them" is a pretty good description of the GOP.
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Old 14th November 2017, 12:38 PM   #499
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Evangelical Christians who embrace Moore are serving the public good by making ridiculous their pose as uniquely moral Americans.
Another public benefit from the Moore spectacle is the embarrassment of national Republicans. Their party having made the star of the “Access Hollywood” tape President, they now are horrified that Moore might become 1 percent of the Senate.
Actually, this man who flouts the law who was twice removed from Alabama’s Supreme Court is a suitable sidekick for a President who pardoned Joe Arpaio.
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Old 14th November 2017, 12:51 PM   #500
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The Dems have got to be very happy with this. No matter what happens they have a win.
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Old 14th November 2017, 12:53 PM   #501
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Now Speaker Ryan and Jeff Sessions have thrown Moore under the bus. They know Sessions in the Senate will be a disaster for the GOP,a huge albatross around their neck.
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Old 14th November 2017, 12:54 PM   #502
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Now Speaker Ryan and Jeff Sessions have thrown Moore under the bus. They know Sessions in the Senate will be a disaster for the GOP,a huge albatross around their neck.
It will not, it will fall by the wayside like pussygate.
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Old 14th November 2017, 01:00 PM   #503
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/14/politi...ess/index.html

Sounds like Moore will fit right in if he's guilty.
Nah, no 14 year-olds.
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Old 14th November 2017, 01:19 PM   #504
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
I think he will lose the election.

However, I also think there will be an attempt to expel him from the Senate if he wins the election. I do not think the Senate has any power to do anything about the behavior of Senators before they became Senators, though. So I think the process will not get very far.
As of early afternoon, the Senators who were talking about (and they were republickers)the situation (Ryan and McConnell being the big voices) seem to think the Senate can and will dump him if he is elected. I am fine with slapping down the religious right wing nuts who destroyed the Republican Party from the 80's to now.
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Old 14th November 2017, 01:20 PM   #505
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
It will not, it will fall by the wayside like pussygate.
I do hope you are wrong on that.
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Old 14th November 2017, 01:24 PM   #506
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Now Speaker Ryan and Jeff Sessions have thrown Moore under the bus. They know Sessions in the Senate will be a disaster for the GOP,a huge albatross around their neck.
I'm assuming you meant "Moore in the Senate" but it's pretty hilarious as written.
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Old 14th November 2017, 01:33 PM   #507
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Originally Posted by fuelair View Post
As of early afternoon, the Senators who were talking about (and they were republickers)the situation (Ryan and McConnell being the big voices) seem to think the Senate can and will dump him if he is elected. I am fine with slapping down the religious right wing nuts who destroyed the Republican Party from the 80's to now.
Nope. They will never set the precedent of expelling someone who hasn't even been charged never mind convicted and I agree with that. There are plenty of reason Moore should not be elected, but if elected those reasons are not enough to expel him. If Alabama wants him, the Senate will have him.
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Old 14th November 2017, 01:35 PM   #508
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Originally Posted by fuelair View Post
I do hope you are wrong on that.
When has old evidence of a history of sexually assaulting people hurt a republican politician? It isn't like he is paying hush money like hastert.
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Old 14th November 2017, 02:00 PM   #509
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Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
Frankly, I'd be pissed if he gets elected and then the senate votes to remove him and lets the governor pick a replacement (assuming the governor can do that).
If the governor could pick the replacement, he would have picked Sessions' replacement.


Apparently it's a tad more complicated than that.

ABC News
Quote:
Following Sessions' confirmation in February, then-Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley appointed the state's attorney general, Luther Strange, to temporarily fill Sessions’ Senate seat until the general election. Bentley later resigned after allegations that he used state resources as governor to hide an affair with one of his top aides. Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey replaced Bentley as governor following the resignation, and called for a special election in April.

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Old 14th November 2017, 02:02 PM   #510
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I'm assuming you meant "Moore in the Senate" but it's pretty hilarious as written.
Yeah, I meant Moore.
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Old 14th November 2017, 02:05 PM   #511
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Nope. They will never set the precedent of expelling someone who hasn't even been charged never mind convicted and I agree with that. There are plenty of reason Moore should not be elected, but if elected those reasons are not enough to expel him. If Alabama wants him, the Senate will have him.
And that Moore in the senate would be a huge gift to the Democrats has nothing to do with your opinion....

And that is why expulsion is a real possibility.
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Old 14th November 2017, 02:27 PM   #512
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
The biblical "sanction" on raping a girl is that she must marry the rapist.
Thus one of oh so many reasons I consider it a load of fecal matter that should have vanished down some sewer or a big fire.
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Old 14th November 2017, 02:28 PM   #513
fuelair
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
And in so doing proves himself to be both a"leftist" and a RINO

He's still upset that the preferred GOP candidate, Strange, was unsuccessful and like the DC swamp monster that he is, he is doing everything he can to nullify the will of the people.
Not always a bad idea. The people as a whole are not particularly intelligent.
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Old 14th November 2017, 02:32 PM   #514
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I don't think there is any prohibition of sexual assault or pedophilia in the bibble.
Golden Rule would seem to cover it pretty well!!! I have no problem with a molester, active pedophile or rapist being done likewise to with something of large circumference and spiny.


If you get my drift and I think you do!!!
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Old 14th November 2017, 02:35 PM   #515
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Bright move on his side. Make them hate him (Moore by trumping!!!!)
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Old 14th November 2017, 03:09 PM   #516
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Originally Posted by C_Felix View Post
Volvo will no longer advertise on Hannity.
I'm shocked that Volvo ever advertised on Hannity.
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Old 14th November 2017, 03:46 PM   #517
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
The Dems have got to be very happy with this. No matter what happens they have a win.
I wouldn't count them out yet, they're pretty adept at losing win win situations.
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Old 14th November 2017, 04:02 PM   #518
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Turns out the letter of support from 53 pastors is from August!
Moore's wife put it out after the allegations on her facebook page.

Yep, nothing like editing a letter to make it seem the pastors support you
AFTER the sexual assault allegations.


http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/201...r_of_supp.html
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Old 14th November 2017, 04:03 PM   #519
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Because of the incredibly simple fact, they donít believe these allegations.
I wonder why.
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Old 14th November 2017, 04:14 PM   #520
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Originally Posted by snoop_doxie View Post
Turns out the letter of support from 53 pastors is from August!
Moore's wife put it out after the allegations on her facebook page.

Yep, nothing like editing a letter to make it seem the pastors support you
AFTER the sexual assault allegations.


http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/201...r_of_supp.html
She's a real piece of work. She also shared a Facebook post claiming the Olde Hickory House restaurant didn't exist in 1977. It did:
City directory confirms Ole Hickory House stood at 305 East Meighan Blvd in Gadsden in 1977. Site now has Rallyís.
"Christian Values" on display again.
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