2020 Presidential Election

[Skeptic Ginger]

This thread is for the 2020 election, hopefully we can keep the lines clear between this and the general Trump thread. I know that will be difficult given how many Trump posts just went to AAH.

So the latest, oh dear: The Guardian: Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win

Quote:

Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” he said. ...

“The Biden campaign just announced he’ll be visiting a number of states – but not Michigan. Sound familiar?” Moore wrote, presumably indicating Hillary Clinton’s 2016 race when she made the error of avoiding some states that then swung to Trump.

“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he later added.

He continued to voters: “Don’t leave it to the Democrats to get rid of Trump. YOU have to get rid of Trump. WE have to wake up every day for the next 67 days and make sure each of us are going to get a hundred people out to vote. ACT NOW!”

I don't need this, sorry for sharing the distress but it can't be ignored.

[Safe-Keeper]

I hate to say this, but I don't regard Moore as a very reliable source anymore. I had a Michael Moore fanboy phase around the time Fahrenheit 9/11 came out, but then he drifted out of my life, so to speak, and then Manufacturing Dissent came out and killed what regard I had for him.
(/ad hominem)

As for Moore's actual claim, I don't know enough about campaign strategy to say anything one way or another.

[Stacyhs]

I think Biden is making a mistake if he doesn't go to each and every swing state. He needs them.

I also fear we will see a repeat of 2016. Frankly, I'm scared to death we will. I don't think this country can take 4 more years of his hateful rhetoric, incompetence, divisiveness, and disregard for the law. If the GOP retains control of the Senate, we're going to see even more enabling of Trump.

[Safe-Keeper]

The Economist currently has Biden on an 88% chance to win, down from 90% a few days ago, and a 98% chance of winning the popular vote.

FiveThirthyEight has Biden win in 69 out of 100 scenarios, after simulating the election 40 000 times.

FiveThirtyEight also shows Trump's approval rating growing, although this is AFAIK common as election approaches.


Election is still two months away, but I find this worrying.
Also agree with Stacyhs that the US most likely won't survive four more years of Trumpism.

[Stacyhs]

Clinton was supposed to be a shoo-in last election, too. How did that work out?

[Safe-Keeper]

Yes, Clinton had a projected 80% chance of winning and still lost. That's why I'm worried. You can roll a six with a die even though the chances are only 16%. Only a 69% chance of winning (538) is terrifying.

[johnny karate]

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being. Will that be enough? I don’t know. But Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

[Trebuchet]

Originally Posted by johnny karate

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being. Will that be enough? I don’t know. But Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

Unfortunately, I disagree. It was extremely evident before the 2016 election what an utter loser Trump is. He opened his campaign with blatant racism. He lied repeatedly. The Access Hollywood tape came out. Megyn Kelly had blood coming from her wherever. And much of the country fully approved of it. And most of those folks approve even more now.

[rockysmith76]

Originally Posted by johnny karate

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being. Will that be enough? I don’t know. But Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

You're already sounding complacent, thats how the Hillary sect lost the last one, man up and do your duty or the next four years are on your failure to take responsibility.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yahoo (BusinessInsider story): The DNC warned campaign staffers to 'swipe carefully' on dating apps because matches could be political opponents digging for dirt

Quote:

Democratic Party officials sent an email to campaign staffers warning them to be wary of opponents digging for information on dating apps.

The email, first reported by CNN, said that opposition groups might seek out campaign staff on dating apps and attempt to orchestrate "sting" operations.

A Democratic official told Business Insider that the warning is "nothing new" and that campaign staff are frequently reminded to be vigilant online.

Several politically-motivated groups have attempted to pull off sting operations online to gather damaging information in the past, though most have backfired.

[KDLarsen]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Clinton was supposed to be a shoo-in last election, too. How did that work out?

Fine up until the point where Comey intervened twice in the closing weeks of the election.

Which is why I'm not taking any polls seriously until trump has made his move, either via Barr making some misrepresentation of the Durham investigation, or by some other lowhanded move.

As for the 'Clinton not visiting swing states cost her the election'-meme, the truth is a bit more complex than that: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-the-election/

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I hate to say this, but I don't regard Moore as a very reliable source anymore. I had a Michael Moore fanboy phase around the time Fahrenheit 9/11 came out, but then he drifted out of my life, so to speak, and then Manufacturing Dissent came out and killed what regard I had for him.

Why not?

Quote:

As for Moore's actual claim, I don't know enough about campaign strategy to say anything one way or another.

He got it right last time, and there's no reason to believe he is wrong now. Don't be fooled by the news media - the Deplorables are still out there and even more determined to win this time. Moore is giving good advice - WE have to get rid of Trump. Just having a majority opinion is not enough. To beat the voter suppression and Trump Trash we need a supermajority of votes.

[Roger Ramjets]

Originally Posted by johnny karate

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being.

And yet they still support him! They are the Deplorables, and they love what Trump is giving them.

Quote:

Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

That's right. He is now a known quantity who has proved his worth to the Deplorables. So they will use every dirty trick in the book - and then some - to keep him there.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Paranoid Rand Paul

Reuters via Yahoo: Republican senator, swarmed by protesters after Trump speech, calls for FBI probe

Quote:

Paul told Fox News Channel he believes the group chanting his name and pushing against his impromptu police escort was paid to incite a riot. He did not say who he believes financially backed them or offer any evidence for his contention.

"I believe there are going to be people who were involved with the attack on us that actually were paid to come here and are not from Washington, D.C., and are sort of paid to be anarchists," Paul said. "The FBI needs to investigate but the only way you can do it is you have to arrest people."

I don't think one needs to pay anyone to protest Trump and his supporters.

This is akin to Trump claiming people were bussed into New Hampshire (or whatever NE State) to vote.

Paul didn't say who supposedly paid the protesters, George Soros is blamed in 3... 2...1.

[Meadmaker]

I think if the election were held today, Biden would win easily.

Unfortunately, the election won't be held today.

My opinion is that if Covid 19 had not come along, Trump would win easily. Covid 19 exposed the worst of Trump and his administration, and did so in a way that affected all of us personally. That makes it a race, but it doesn't make it a given that Trump will lose.

[varwoche]

Hmm. According to AP yesterday:

Quote:

After spending a pandemic spring and summer tethered almost entirely to his Delaware home, Joe Biden plans to take his presidential campaign to battleground states after Labor Day in his bid to unseat President Donald Trump. No itinerary is set, according to the Democratic nominee’s campaign

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets

And yet they still support him! They are the Deplorables, and they love what Trump is giving them.

That's right. He is now a known quantity who has proved his worth to the Deplorables. So they will use every dirty trick in the book - and then some - to keep him there.

I watch a lot of CSPAN and the other day they were interviewing some Republican Trump supporter who looked like he should otherwise be intelligent. He repeated all the Trump lies, claiming Trump has done everything he said he would.

I think Biden (or the Lincoln Project) needs an add they play over and over to get through to these confirmation biased people:

Mexico did not pay for any wall and only about 30 feet of new wall was installed.

He did not have the cheaper, better medical coverage plan that he promised.

He certainly didn't drain the swamp, he filled it full of feces (could be worded differently).

List all the people in his campaign that went to jail (might need to leave this out because no doubt it will sidetrack people into the BS that Trump was spied on and targeted).

If you believe he works hard and works on the golf course, one needs to call BS on that. Easy to point out how little he even reads and phone calls to Hannity are not 'work'.

Show the economic growth rate under Obama compared to Trump. That one needs special emphasis!

There are no new coal jobs.

And so on and so on.

[uke2se]

You guys who are worried, you should focus your energy and do whatever you can to work for a Biden win. We're all worried about a Trump win, but you guys in the States are in a position to do something. The rest of us can only watch in terror as your country teeters on the precipice.

Here's a starting point: https://votesaveamerica.com/save-america/

[Stacyhs]

I had every confidence that the American people would see Trump for what he is back in 2016: a despicable con man. Sure, there were a lot of idiots who would vote for him but not enough for him to win...or so I thought. After the Access Hollywood tape came out, I was sure of it. After all, who could possibly vote for someone like that? Boy, was I ever wrong. The fact his approval rating has basically stayed pretty much consistent with a few ups and downs just goes to prove the point that Teflon Don has given his supporters exactly what they wanted in 2016 and still want. He has every chance of winning again thanks to our unfair Electoral College which could well give us, once again, an unfit president elected by a minority of the country.

[JoeMorgue]

It all comes down to how much of Trump's base still hold onto the belief that he either is or going to "make things better" and how much of Trump's base are simply enjoying the flames. How deep the vein of self destructive nihilism goes is the key to all of this.

I still stand behind the over-arching theme that I've had a base trolling/spite mentality is a factor in support for Donald J. Trump in a way that has never been true of any other President.

And this trolling/spite mentality breaks all conventional political rules. None of our traditional political wisdom can really properly account for "I'm going to make things worse just to get back at the other side." Questions of "Are you better off" or "Do you think X is better or worse" simply don't work that well. Someone who said "I think Bob Dole will make things worse for the country than Bill Clinton" was voicing support for Bill Clinton. At least some, measurable, meaningful percent of people who go "I think Donald Trump will make things worse for the country than Joe Biden" are voicing support for Donald Trump, not Joe Biden.

I'm hoping but I'm not hopeful. I like to think after the spanking they got in 2016 Pollsters are being more cautious so assuming that is true Biden is polling much better than Trump. But "LOL Librul Tears" wasn't part of the Reagan, Bush, Dole, Romney, or McCain platforms the way it is such a core part of the Trump platform. The core problem of them wanting a narrative where we get hope again just to have it yanked away is a factor in this election and I'm terrified to what degree the current narrative is following that. That's why hope almost feels like a betrayal, like I'm jinxing it or something. For them to really, really win the way they want to win we first have to think we will win again. Sure if Trump wins again that will make them happy. Another "Oh man we are so going to win this*" followed by a loss so they can make another Youtube montage of "LOL lookit the libruls breaking down because Trump won!" videos? Well that would just be perfection.

Put a gun to my head and demand odds, 60/40 Biden/Trump assuming nothing else happens in the next... what 80 days or so and just saying that makes me feel like I just read the Latin inscription in the dusty old leather bound book I found in the cellar of the creepy abandoned house in a horror movie. But I have so much less confidence making such a prediction than I would have in the past.

* I know the fact that the raw math did not give Hillary a "sure thing" have already been discussed and I know how statistics work and that 2016 didn't "break" them but for me the revisionism, for I must call it that, around Trump's chances in 2016 were never about the raw numbers but general cultural and social "feel."

[Safe-Keeper]

Originally Posted by johnny karate

I’m also concerned about a Trump re-election, but I don’t think comparisons to the 2016 are apt. Trump was an unknown quantity then. Americans have had over three years to see what a spectacular failure he is as a president and a human being. Will that be enough? I don’t know. But Trump no longer has the momentum generated by being a political outsider that pushed him over the top in 2016.

Yes, some have turned away from him. In the meantime, though, Trump has been doing everything he could to sabotage the USPS to prevent Dems from voting by mail, surpress voters in other ways, and move the US further towards a hyper-polarized, post-fact environment.

Neither covid nor the demonstrations and riots are hurting him as much as they should because his disciples get their facts filtered for them and genuenly believe he has done more to fight corona than anyone and/or that the pandemic is way overblown, and that the riots are caused by Marxist thugs and running unchecked because of the spineless mayors and governors of Democrat cities and states. Even him sending in black ops stormtroopers to kidnap people with black vans is spun as Trump doing what he had to do in order to restore Law&Order.

In general, it's hard to make predictions in a post-fact world, and when discussing the Trump regime. I mean, when he can take demonstrations and pandemic deaths that happened during his regime and use them to argue that he needs to be re-elected because this is what America will look like under Biden... I feel like I've fallen down the rabbit hole and landed in some alternate reality where nothing makes sense.

[Safe-Keeper]

Originally Posted by uke2se

You guys who are worried, you should focus your energy and do whatever you can to work for a Biden win. We're all worried about a Trump win, but you guys in the States are in a position to do something. The rest of us can only watch in terror as your country teeters on the precipice.

Here's a starting point: https://votesaveamerica.com/save-america/

True. I'm looking at options for donating money. The Lincoln Project might get something, as might the Democratic party. Had I lived in the States, I would volunteer, but as I don't, contributing some of my money is the best I can do.

[uke2se]

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

True. I'm looking at options for donating money. The Lincoln Project might get something, as might the Democratic party. Had I lived in the States, I would volunteer, but as I don't, contributing some of my money is the best I can do.

If you're not a US national you can't make a political donation. Be sure to select a non-profit in that case, as I believe they can accept foreign donations.

[Segnosaur]

Originally Posted by uke2se

If you're not a US national you can't make a political donation. Be sure to select a non-profit in that case, as I believe they can accept foreign donations.

Could he hire some hackers to make various cyber attacks and bot nets? I hear that is quite acceptable to Americans.

Sent from my LM-X320 using Tapatalk

[Distracted1]

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

Yes, some have turned away from him. In the meantime, though, Trump has been doing everything he could to sabotage the USPS to prevent Dems from voting by mail, surpress voters in other ways, and move the US further towards a hyper-polarized, post-fact environment.

Neither covid nor the demonstrations and riots are hurting him as much as they should because his disciples get their facts filtered for them and genuenly believe he has done more to fight corona than anyone and/or that the pandemic is way overblown, and that the riots are caused by Marxist thugs and running unchecked because of the spineless mayors and governors of Democrat cities and states. Even him sending in black ops stormtroopers to kidnap people with black vans is spun as Trump doing what he had to do in order to restore Law&Order.

In general, it's hard to make predictions in a post-fact world, and when discussing the Trump regime. I mean, when he can take demonstrations and pandemic deaths that happened during his regime and use them to argue that he needs to be re-elected because this is what America will look like under Biden... I feel like I've fallen down the rabbit hole and landed in some alternate reality where nothing makes sense.

Covid- by itself, would have sunk Trump IMO. It was the perfect opportunity to demonstrate why incompetent leadership is not such a good idea- even if it feels good to make liberals heads explode.
Fortunately for him, the Nationwide rioting has swooped in to possibly snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
We selected Biden because he seemed most likely to be able to keep the Right wingers who were not enthusiastic about Trump at home on Election Day which would let Democrats leverage their own disdain for Trump to win in November.

Now, Biden finds himself between a rock and a hard place. If he wishes to keep the Luke-warm right leaning independents and disaffected Republicans (and to a certain extent, the moderate Dems now too) on his side he must come out strongly against the violence and destruction coming from the protests, but by doing so he risks losing the support of minorities and the so-called radical left ( groups that he could have counted on as a given had the unrest that is going on not chosen this moment to explode).
The current unrest is a gift to Trump- and the longer it goes on, the better it is for him.

I am looking to Trumps polls in Wisconsin to see what effect this has had on his chances. Before the Kinosha riots, he was still trailing Biden by an average of 3.5 points (according to real clear politics averaging of the polls.
If he experiences a jump in those polls after this weekend, I fear it will be an ill omen for Biden.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Distracted1

Covid- by itself, would have sunk Trump IMO. It was the perfect opportunity to demonstrate why incompetent leadership is not such a good idea- even if it feels good to make liberals heads explode.
Fortunately for him, the Nationwide rioting has swooped in to possibly snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. ...

Nationwide rioting?

In Seattle and Portland it's a couple of square blocks.

In Wisconsin it was an immediate reaction to yet another cop shooting an unarmed black man. It's already subsiding and I doubt it had anything to do with Trump sending in the National Guard but like everything, Trump takes credit where credit isn't due,

At the Republican Convention they showed images of rioting in SPAIN!!! and implied it was here.

So where is this nationwide rioting?

[Distracted1]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Nationwide rioting?

In Seattle and Portland it's a couple of square blocks.

In Wisconsin it was an immediate reaction to yet another cop shooting an unarmed black man. It's already subsiding and I doubt it had anything to do with Trump sending in the National Guard but like everything, Trump takes credit where credit isn't due,

At the Republican Convention they showed images of rioting in SPAIN!!! and implied it was here.

So where is this nationwide rioting?

DC, Philly, Milwalkee, Kinosha, Detroit, Portland, Seattle, Los Angeles, Houston ,etc..
Of course, only in specific areas of those cities at any given time.

Apparently, the entire World was not at war during WW 2 either, since battles only took place in specific small areas of the globe.

You wish to quibble about what a "riot" is, feel free.
You can point out how mobs of people destroying things and engaging in other violence only qualifies as "rioting" under some specific set of circumstances that are somehow never quite met in your opinion if you wish.
All the way to a second Trump term even. Then perhaps we can be told how the "law and order" message could not possibly have resounded with any voters because we had "law and order" the whole time.

[Meadmaker]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

I still stand behind the over-arching theme that I've had a base trolling/spite mentality is a factor in support for Donald J. Trump in a way that has never been true of any other President.

Indeed.

I hope Biden understands that, and can make it work to his advantage. A lot of Democrats don't, and I kind of doubt Biden does, either.

[Safe-Keeper]

Originally Posted by uke2se

If you're not a US national you can't make a political donation. Be sure to select a non-profit in that case, as I believe they can accept foreign donations.

Pity. Seems the Lincoln Project also requires you to be in a US State.

Any other way for a foreign national to make a difference before this election?

[Safe-Keeper]

Originally Posted by Distracted1

Covid- by itself, would have sunk Trump IMO. It was the perfect opportunity to demonstrate why incompetent leadership is not such a good idea- even if it feels good to make liberals heads explode.
Fortunately for him, the Nationwide rioting has swooped in to possibly snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

The post-fact world is the root problem here. The Mueller investigation was a witch hunt that uncovered nothing. Covid is a hoax/caused by BLM demonstrators and rioters/Trump has done more to combat it than anyone. The protesters are thugs burning police stations and shops to bring about a Marxist revolution. The nebulous Obamagate is a thing. Objective and negative coverage on Trump should be avoided and disregarded because it's exaggerated "fake news". I could go on and on.

The post-fact phenomenon is both endlessly exasperating, and incredibly frightening.

[Safe-Keeper]

Very interesting take by FiveThirtyEight on how closely BLM backlash and Biden's electoral prospects are, or aren't, linked.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

Unfortunately, I disagree. It was extremely evident before the 2016 election what an utter loser Trump is. He opened his campaign with blatant racism. He lied repeatedly. The Access Hollywood tape came out. Megyn Kelly had blood coming from her wherever. And much of the country fully approved of it. And most of those folks approve even more now.

I agree Trump will win and America is ******, you are already doomed to be a third world ********.
NATO has been broken by Trump and Russia is the future for Europe.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

Pity. Seems the Lincoln Project also requires you to be in a US State.

Any other way for a foreign national to make a difference before this election?

You can't see any of the videos?

https://lincolnproject.us/video/

Can you see them if you go to Youtube first?

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...incoln+project

[Safe-Keeper]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

You can't see any of the videos?

I can see the videos. I was talking about donations.

[Captain_Swoop]

Remember every right wing. nazi, republican, scum sucking half wit, ****-head idiot will be voting for Trump.
Everyone needs to get out there and vote for Biden.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Put a gun to my head and demand odds, 60/40 Biden/Trump assuming nothing else happens in the next... what 80 days or so and just saying that makes me feel like I just read the Latin inscription in the dusty old leather bound book I found in the cellar of the creepy abandoned house in a horror movie. But I have so much less confidence making such a prediction than I would have in the past.

* I know the fact that the raw math did not give Hillary a "sure thing" have already been discussed and I know how statistics work and that 2016 didn't "break" them but for me the revisionism, for I must call it that, around Trump's chances in 2016 were never about the raw numbers but general cultural and social "feel."

Yeah, I think that sounds about right to me. It is worth pointing out that when it came to 538, they always gave Trump a higher chance than many of the pollsters and modellers. They argued till they were blue in the face that a 99% chance for Clinton was massively overconfident and that at state level, Trump was always within the margin of error in a number of key states, and that that was highly significant as being on one side of the margin of error in one state likely meant that it could hold true for the other states if the error was systematic.

Also, while Michael Moore needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, I seem to recall that he very much warned that Trump's message resonated far more than the media class realized. I think that could well be true now. While a lot of the media are content to say anyone opposing BLM marches is racist, or that those who see the cops as justified must also be racist etc... I think Trump's message that the Democrats are on the side of riots may also be resonating further than much of the media realizes.

And, no, the facts don't matter. That is a crucial point that Clinton et. al missed in 2016, according to Nathan Robinson (and I happen to agree with him):

Quote:

it is spectacle, not facts, that matters in Trump world. In 2016, Democrats made the mistake of thinking they could “factcheck” their way to victory, pointing out the many ways in which Trump’s statements were false or misleading. To beat Trump you don’t need better facts, though, you need a better narrative. Trump’s message is a simple and powerful one: I love America, they hate America, I will create greatness, they will create poverty, violence and misery. The Biden team leans heavily on carefully pointing out that much of what Trump says is wrong. This is important, but it’s not enough. Hillary Clinton found this out the hard way.

Joe Biden still hasn’t really developed a political identity for the election. He boasts of having the “most progressive platform” since FDR, yet the Democratic convention spurned young leftists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, choosing instead to showcase anti-Trump Republicans. Some seem to think the best strategy for Biden is just to lie low and be a warm body, a name on the ballot that isn’t Trump. I am certain most Americans cannot name a Biden policy proposal or even his campaign slogan (that’s a trick, he actually has eight campaign slogans). Like Hillary Clinton, Biden has major political liabilities, having been associated with the very administration whose failures Trump was elected by campaigning against.

Link

[Safe-Keeper]

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

* I know the fact that the raw math did not give Hillary a "sure thing" have already been discussed and I know how statistics work and that 2016 didn't "break" them but for me the revisionism, for I must call it that, around Trump's chances in 2016 were never about the raw numbers but general cultural and social "feel."

Fair enough. And yes, people were too optimistic and complacent in 2016, or should I say trusting. We trusted facts and statistics, and we trusted the American populace to not elect someone as obviously vile, dishonest, and incompetent as Trump. Trump was measured by the wrong yardstick, I suppose.

[The Great Zaganza]

Trump has managed to convince Republicans that Biden is the current President, and everything wrong with 2020 America is his fault and only Trump can fix it.
I put his chances at 50/50.

[Stacyhs]

Facts don't matter. And that is so sad. That Trump lies and lies and lies and lies and that doesn't matter is so sad. That he is a sociopath doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a disgusting human being without morals or honor or principals doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a fraud doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a racist and bigot doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That he is a serial adulterer doesn't matter. And that is so sad. That his supporters embrace him for these things is sad. Just so sad.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I can see the videos. I was talking about donations.

Might have something to do with FEC PAC rules.