2020 Presidential Election - Page 6

angrysoba · 4th September 2020, 05:07 PM

It looks like Biden is now "favoured" to win the election on 538, whereas he was only recently "slightly favoured" to win the election:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Stacyhs · 4th September 2020, 05:51 PM

I'd feel pretty confident right now with those numbers....except for 2016. I felt confident then, too. I'm actually scared to death.

JoeMorgue · 4th September 2020, 07:05 PM

Even if it stays red I do like the idea of the Republicans at least having to fight for Texas. The idea of the biggest safe red state turning into a big money/time sink they have to pour resources into, even if they manage to hold it with fair regularity, while the Dems can just sit back and still win California and New York without trying and focus on shoring the "Blue Wall" back up (the single biggest short to mid term Democratic priority on a national level in my opinion) and working the swing states is nice.

Venom · 4th September 2020, 07:08 PM

I hope Donald Trump's new home state of Florida swings to Biden.

JoeMorgue · 4th September 2020, 07:12 PM

Originally Posted by Venom

I hope Donald Trump's new home state of Florida swings to Biden.

I'm hoping so too. My city was the only major metro area in Florida to go red rather than blue in 2016 and that was by a thin hair's margin. I'm really hoping it's one of the tipping points in the other direction this time.

All I can do is cast my one vote, but I'm in a place where that might actually matter at least a little.

Skeptic Ginger · 4th September 2020, 07:25 PM

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

I'd feel pretty confident right now with those numbers....except for 2016. I felt confident then, too. I'm actually scared to death.

What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part.

JoeMorgue · 4th September 2020, 07:30 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part.

True there's no e-mail server or under ground pizza parlor child sex dungeon, just the same general "He's weak on crime, raise taxes" greatest hits they play for every Democratic Candidate.

Still fills just... wrong to have hope though.

Venom · 4th September 2020, 08:23 PM

I'm glad Biden is at least 6'0" tall as well. Trump isn't much taller and it won't be too noticeable.

The taller candidate usually wins.

Imagine Bloomberg versus Trump on the debate stage.

The Great Zaganza · 4th September 2020, 09:22 PM

Originally Posted by Venom

I'm glad Biden is at least 6'0" tall as well. Trump isn't much taller and it won't be too noticeable.

The taller candidate usually wins.

Imagine Bloomberg versus Trump on the debate stage.

Trump will just wear higher insoles.
He isn't actually taller than Biden. My guess is he is shorter.

Sherkeu · 4th September 2020, 09:33 PM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Trump will just wear higher insoles.
He isn't actually taller than Biden. My guess is he is shorter.

Nope. I am slightly shorter than Melania and have met Biden and spoken with him in person for 20 or so minutes at his fundraiser...granted it was back in the late 90's so he may have shrunk since then. I am a tall woman so I always notice men taller than me when I am in heels because I become 6ft tall.

Trump is taller than Biden- 2 or 3 inches

Not that it should matter.
No one is a Dukakis or Perot here.

The Great Zaganza · 4th September 2020, 09:42 PM

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Nope. I am slightly shorter than Melania and have met Biden and spoken with him in person for 20 or so minutes at his fundraiser...granted it was back in the late 90's so he may have shrunk since then. I am a tall woman so I always notice men taller than me when I am in heels because I become 6ft tall.

Trump is taller than Biden- 2 or 3 inches

Not that it should matter.
No one is a Dukakis or Perot here.

you have seen the pics of Trump leaning forward, right?
And you have seen his almost falling of the ramp?

it's because his heels are boosted inside the shoe, which makes a small incline much steeper for him.

But of course you are right that on TV stage, that won't be obvious.

Sherkeu · 4th September 2020, 09:47 PM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

you have seen the pics of Trump leaning forward, right?
And you have seen his almost falling of the ramp?

it's because his heels are boosted inside the shoe, which makes a small incline much steeper for him.

But of course you are right that on TV stage, that won't be obvious.

Ha! This gave me a vision of Trump getting 'shoe lift' lessons from Tom Cruise.
He is flawless with his high heels.

Or perhaps Simon Cowell and his 'boots'.

But I hardly think the height disparity is an issue this year. This are both old shrinking men.

Venom · 4th September 2020, 11:15 PM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

you have seen the pics of Trump leaning forward, right?
And you have seen his almost falling of the ramp?

it's because his heels are boosted inside the shoe, which makes a small incline much steeper for him.

But of course you are right that on TV stage, that won't be obvious.

Trump is clearly taller than Obama, who is Biden's height almost exactly.

But sure the proportionally small difference probably won't be a factor at all.

Firestone · 4th September 2020, 11:50 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part.

Ukrainian tapes, Durham "investigation", senator Johnson's Burisma hearing.

Will it actually work? For now it didn't (remember when they tried "Obamagate"?).

59 days

The Great Zaganza · 5th September 2020, 12:38 AM

Originally Posted by Venom

Trump is clearly taller than Obama, who is Biden's height almost exactly.

But sure the proportionally small difference probably won't be a factor at all.

no, he isn't.

https://www.quora.com/Is-President-T...resident-Obama

Trump lies about everything. Why do people think he is honest about his height?

Venom · 5th September 2020, 09:00 AM

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

no, he isn't.

https://www.quora.com/Is-President-T...resident-Obama

Trump lies about everything. Why do people think he is honest about his height?

Obama is much younger than Trump with better posture.

I don't doubt that he was once 6'2" or 6'3".

Safe-Keeper · 5th September 2020, 09:23 AM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part.

I wonder if they'll go for the pedophile angle. There are some pictures of Biden kissing kids, appearing to look at the chest of a young girl, touching a (prepubescent) girl on the chest, et cetera. It made a stir on social media earlier in the campaign, but seems to have been forgotten about since.

As for Trump, with all the leaks and tell-all books there have been, I'm sure there's people with even worse material on him waiting to drop it as an October surprise.

Venom · 5th September 2020, 01:30 PM

The "creepy uncle" angle is tiresome pearl-clutching. It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it.

And it's more often than not from the Trumpers, of course, one of the biggest creeps to become president.

Minoosh · 5th September 2020, 01:36 PM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

All I can do is cast my one vote, but I'm in a place where that might actually matter at least a little.

Do you see any evidence that Dems are working on a "get out the vote" effort there?

Delphic Oracle · 5th September 2020, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by Venom

The "creepy uncle" angle is tiresome pearl-clutching. It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it.

And it's more often than not from the Trumpers, of course, one of the biggest creeps to become president.

Any party officials watching: this is a terrible way to respond on consent issues.

JoeMorgue · 5th September 2020, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by Minoosh

Do you see any evidence that Dems are working on a "get out the vote" effort there?

Honestly no. The national TV adds are about 50/50 constant Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-etc. For local elections the Republican adds are outplaying the Democratic ones massively.

Again COVID might be a factor but I'm not getting the "Swing state" vibe here as much as I did in 2016. Maybe the Dems are focusing more elsewhere.

But this is all just coming from one limited perspective.

Safe-Keeper · 5th September 2020, 01:49 PM

Originally Posted by Venom

The "creepy uncle" angle is tiresome pearl-clutching. It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it.

And it's more often than not from the Trumpers, of course, one of the biggest creeps to become president.

I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.

kookbreaker · 5th September 2020, 01:56 PM

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.

Also remember there was the rape allegation a few months back, that, while never disproven was shown to be more and more far-fetched as investigations went on. Also one Trump fan tried to claim that Biden complimented a young girl’s breast at an event that Biden could not have been at. That makes any more ‘creepy’ bits (which Biden did address somewhat and apologize for) a bit weak and need to be pushed uphill.

Venom · 5th September 2020, 03:33 PM

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

Any party officials watching: this is a terrible way to respond on consent issues.

No doubt about that.

angrysoba · 5th September 2020, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.

On the other hand, Trump will try anything and know that his fans don't care about hypocrisy.

Remember that he brought those who made allegations against Bill Clinton to sit in the front row of his debate with Hillary Clinton.

Venom · 5th September 2020, 05:59 PM

The sad thing is the Democrats can't do such tactics or the holier than thou Independents and "fence sitters" might see that as the Democrats taking a radical left turn.

angrysoba · 5th September 2020, 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by Venom

The sad thing is the Democrats can't do such tactics or the holier than thou Independents and "fence sitters" might see that as the Democrats taking a radical left turn.

Trump presents himself as an ******* and he is an *******. He wins all of the "I want an *******" vote.

Trying to chase the "I want an *******" vote when you are not an ******* is a bad strategy. Yes, it lacks authenticity and yes, people who want to vote for a dignified candidate are going to be put off by someone who tries 4Chan tactics.

Minoosh · 5th September 2020, 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.

I've known a few "handsy" guys who were not creepy. Some of them are, of course, but I had one boss who was just like that ... he could walk up and put an arm around me and I would think nothing of it. Even though I was 25 and he was 60.

Skeptic Ginger · 5th September 2020, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I wonder if they'll go for the pedophile angle. There are some pictures of Biden kissing kids, appearing to look at the chest of a young girl, touching a (prepubescent) girl on the chest, et cetera. It made a stir on social media earlier in the campaign, but seems to have been forgotten about since......

I can't see this being credible to anyone except Trump's cultists.

And as for bringing Biden's accusers to the debates, meh. I suspect Trump will try because he wants YV scandal.

theprestige · 5th September 2020, 08:19 PM

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.

LOL. Trump lies. Trump wants to be respected. Trump lies to get respect. The men of power in Hollywood are sexual predators. Trump boasts about being a predator.

Meanwhile we have actual video of Biden acting creepy. And we have you looking at that video and saying, yeah, there's a pedophile narrative there. And that's a pro-Biden view of the situation.

Delvo · 5th September 2020, 11:27 PM

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

As for Trump, with all the leaks and tell-all books there have been, I'm sure there's people with even worse material on him waiting to drop it as an October surprise.

If they plan to time it that way to try to affect the election, they're ignorant of the situation we're facing and how it got this way.

A brief summary of the politics-watching life of a Republican/conservative or even a resident of a mostly Republican/conservative area...

•Turn on a TV news show/channel that isn't Fox: watch them fling a bunch of false accusations about what horrible monsters you and almost everybody you know are, along with famous Republicans you don't personally know.
•Read an article about politics online or in a newspaper: watch them fling a bunch of false accusations about what horrible monsters you and almost everybody you know are, along with famous Republicans you don't personally know.
•Listen to or read speeches by famous Democrats: more of the same
•Meet a Democrat or political lefty in person who wants to talk about politics: get yelled at with false accusations about what horrible monsters you and everybody you know are, try to reason with them, just get interrupted with more of the same because they're not listening because they're too anxious to tell you more about what you supposedly think according to them instead of hearing anything you actually think.
•Go online to forums or chatrooms or Twitter or whatever, any that aren't set up by and for Republican/conservative members: get treated to more of the same kind of behavior as the in-person one except that it's technically impossible to interrupt you but they still pay just as little attention to anything you say as an interrupter anyway because they're all too busy writing their next post to tell you how what they magically know you really think is something completely different from what you already told them you think, and there are lots more of them than you could meet in person so there's also the benefit of the "getting ganged up on" effect and watching them high-five each other over how much dishonesty & rabidness they manage to pack in per post.
•Try to just stay out of all of that and live & let live: still get reminded of it periodically by in-your-face types trying to pick fights and infuse politics into everything else in life anyway, including in "entertainment" TV & movies that still always manage to present your kind of people as the stereotype that all the Democrat/lefty hate-speech claims you are no matter how non-political the subject might originally have been.

There's not a lot of point in tossing one more attack onto the pile for an audience that's already used to the fact that the other side is always coming up with more & more false accusations & other lies. It's what they've been surrounded by for years, often essentially their whole lives. That's the framework through which any new ones added now will be interpreted. They already know not to believe the next one before it even happens, because political life is always just more of the same over & over again.

Originally Posted by Venom

It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it.

Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper

I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed.

Everything about Trump is always why anything against Biden fails, with help from the "ELECTABLE!!!" mantra.

But, aside from that, creepiness works pretty differently for adults and children. In adults, it's always assumed to be sexual, but in children there's a dichotomy. Then, sexual becomes much worse, but, as long as it's not sexual, it's not an issue at all to a lot of people because a lot of people, at least non-sexually, think it's just fine to act like you, non-sexually, own children's bodies. They're not generally acknowledged to have the right to refuse hugs, shoulder-grabs, head-pats, hair-strokes, pinches, lap-sitting, & so on until they get old enough for the automatic universal sexual element to apply. (And the people who are the most prone to see it this way are the very old, which are Biden's personal base.)

So, what has Biden done that either was unmistakably sexual, or involved old enough targets to be out of the "it's OK to do any non-sexual thing you want to them" age range? There was something at an event he wasn't even at, and the rape thing that fizzled away, but that's all that anybody seems to remember. I've seen one case where he gave a woman the classic stroke-her-lower-jaw-toward-her-chin move, which says "I'm about to kiss you so I'm putting your face in kissing position", but somehow that's remained very obscure. I've only seen it once and I've never seen anybody else act at all aware of its existence. And anything that people don't know about, no matter how horrific it is, can't affect people's behavior. So that just leaves only the stuff that people do know about, which is just stuff that our culture treats as OK for really really old people (especially relatives, followed by famous people such as politicians) to do to children.

The Great Zaganza · 6th September 2020, 01:11 AM

If Senate Republicans and the RNC let Trump **** up this election, they will truly have betrayed this country and have their party abolished.

Honestly, it would be best for the GOP just just close shop and open under a new name and management.

Minoosh · 6th September 2020, 02:53 AM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

Honestly no. The national TV adds are about 50/50 constant Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-etc. For local elections the Republican adds are outplaying the Democratic ones massively.

Again COVID might be a factor but I'm not getting the "Swing state" vibe here as much as I did in 2016. Maybe the Dems are focusing more elsewhere.

But this is all just coming from one limited perspective.

That's what makes the perspective valuable, though. It's a data point about how effective campaigns are from the point of view of a reaching individual voters. The only ads I hear are for Dems and I'm in a kind-of swing state. The ones robo-calling the house every day are the RNC or Trump re-election organization. Maybe because I or my mom are registered Republicans. I'd be impressed if the Dems reached out to me, but it's not happening yet.

Actually I'm not hearing much about Biden in particular, either. But some health-care coalition is buying ads pointing out that Trump and the GOP put a lot of effort in wiping out the ACA without any plan in sight for helping make insurance obtainable for people with pre-existing conditions. My state also has a fairly unpopular Republican senator who I also never hear ads from.

I barely watch TV though. I am basing this on news-talk radio or what gets served up online. I hope to see billboards popping up because it's one of the few mediums that people can't really filter out.

ETA: I know the conventional wisdom is that advertising works to sway people's votes, but conventional wisdom fairly often turns out to be wrong these days.

Craig4 · 6th September 2020, 06:11 AM

Originally Posted by JoeMorgue

I'm hoping so too. My city was the only major metro area in Florida to go red rather than blue in 2016 and that was by a thin hair's margin. I'm really hoping it's one of the tipping points in the other direction this time.

All I can do is cast my one vote, but I'm in a place where that might actually matter at least a little.

I lived in Florida in 2016 and was registered as a unaffiliated voter. I would have thought I was a highly prized commodity (living in the Tampa area). You'd think I would have been inundated with calls and door knockers. Nothing. I had one flyer for Clinton on my door. That was it.

I see Biden's lead is narrowing in Florida. He was at around seven points ahead and is now about three. I'm curious to see if Trump's recent quotes about the military improves Biden's lead. His comments about Vietnam veterans likely won't help him in Florida being a state with a lot of retired military people as well as a lot of Military bases.

angrysoba · 6th September 2020, 06:24 AM

Originally Posted by Craig4

I lived in Florida in 2016 and was registered as a unaffiliated voter. I would have thought I was a highly prized commodity (living in the Tampa area). You'd think I would have been inundated with calls and door knockers. Nothing. I had one flyer for Clinton on my door. That was it.

I see Biden's lead is narrowing in Florida. He was at around seven points ahead and is now about three. I'm curious to see if Trump's recent quotes about the military improves Biden's lead. His comments about Vietnam veterans likely won't help him in Florida being a state with a lot of retired military people as well as a lot of Military bases.

Could the narrowing of the lead just be part of the convention bounce? In which case it will probably - hopefully - wear off.

Craig4 · 6th September 2020, 06:56 AM

Originally Posted by angrysoba

Could the narrowing of the lead just be part of the convention bounce? In which case it will probably - hopefully - wear off.

It looks like the lead narrowed before the conventions. At the height of Florida's pandemic crisis, Biden was seven points ahead. The lead narrowed by August. What's interesting is that Trump seems to have a ceiling of 45.5ish percent. Biden's numbers haven't really changed much throughout so there looks like a core of 48 percent of Florida voters who have already decided to vote Biden.

Bob001 · 6th September 2020, 12:19 PM

An assessment of the Electoral College: The writer argues that it hurts voters in large states and small states.
https://www.reference.com/world-view...Recommendation

The Great Zaganza · 6th September 2020, 12:57 PM

The EC causes most Americans to be irrelevant for the purposes of campaigning.

Craig4 · 6th September 2020, 01:10 PM

It would be nice to have a system where your vote counted toward your candidate as much as everyone else's. Right now, your vote only helps your candidate if said candidate wins your state. Republicans in California and Democrats in Texas might as well not bother voting for president. The only votes that really matter are a few independent voters in about six swing states. The rest of us are background noise.

Tero · 6th September 2020, 01:16 PM

I have not read one Trump focuses book yet, though I did read a few books related to voters that voted for Trump and their states and counties.

Now that we have an election coming up, I was finally going to read one. After election day. But since we will be counting votes for weeks, or until the Supreme Court, again, decides we do not need to count votes, I changed plans. (the court: Because it will be unfair to voters who are able to walk to polls and vote. Or something.)

But anyway, I will read Cohen's book as soon as it gets here.

4th September 2020, 05:07 PM	#201
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 29,601	It looks like Biden is now "favoured" to win the election on 538, whereas he was only recently "slightly favoured" to win the election: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
	__________________ "The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

4th September 2020, 07:05 PM	#203
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 31,391	Even if it stays red I do like the idea of the Republicans at least having to fight for Texas. The idea of the biggest safe red state turning into a big money/time sink they have to pour resources into, even if they manage to hold it with fair regularity, while the Dems can just sit back and still win California and New York without trying and focus on shoring the "Blue Wall" back up (the single biggest short to mid term Democratic priority on a national level in my opinion) and working the swing states is nice.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate." Last edited by JoeMorgue; 4th September 2020 at 07:12 PM.

4th September 2020, 07:12 PM	#205
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 31,391	Originally Posted by Venom I hope Donald Trump's new home state of Florida swings to Biden. I'm hoping so too. My city was the only major metro area in Florida to go red rather than blue in 2016 and that was by a thin hair's margin. I'm really hoping it's one of the tipping points in the other direction this time. All I can do is cast my one vote, but I'm in a place where that might actually matter at least a little.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate."

4th September 2020, 07:30 PM	#207
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 31,391	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part. True there's no e-mail server or under ground pizza parlor child sex dungeon, just the same general "He's weak on crime, raise taxes" greatest hits they play for every Democratic Candidate. Still fills just... wrong to have hope though.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate."

4th September 2020, 09:22 PM	#209
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,852	Originally Posted by Venom I'm glad Biden is at least 6'0" tall as well. Trump isn't much taller and it won't be too noticeable. The taller candidate usually wins. Imagine Bloomberg versus Trump on the debate stage. Trump will just wear higher insoles. He isn't actually taller than Biden. My guess is he is shorter.
	__________________ The things that you're liable To read in the Bible It ain't necessarily so

4th September 2020, 05:51 PM	#202
Stacyhs Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: United States Posts: 18,199	I'd feel pretty confident right now with those numbers....except for 2016. I felt confident then, too. I'm actually scared to death.

4th September 2020, 07:08 PM	#204
Venom Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: United States Posts: 4,957	I hope Donald Trump's new home state of Florida swings to Biden.

4th September 2020, 07:25 PM	#206
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 87,749	Originally Posted by Stacyhs I'd feel pretty confident right now with those numbers....except for 2016. I felt confident then, too. I'm actually scared to death. What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part.

4th September 2020, 08:23 PM	#208
Venom Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: United States Posts: 4,957	I'm glad Biden is at least 6'0" tall as well. Trump isn't much taller and it won't be too noticeable. The taller candidate usually wins. Imagine Bloomberg versus Trump on the debate stage.

4th September 2020, 09:33 PM	#210
Sherkeu Master Poster Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Disneyland Posts: 2,478	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza Trump will just wear higher insoles. He isn't actually taller than Biden. My guess is he is shorter. Nope. I am slightly shorter than Melania and have met Biden and spoken with him in person for 20 or so minutes at his fundraiser...granted it was back in the late 90's so he may have shrunk since then. I am a tall woman so I always notice men taller than me when I am in heels because I become 6ft tall. Trump is taller than Biden- 2 or 3 inches Not that it should matter. No one is a Dukakis or Perot here.

4th September 2020, 09:42 PM	#211
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,852	Originally Posted by Sherkeu Nope. I am slightly shorter than Melania and have met Biden and spoken with him in person for 20 or so minutes at his fundraiser...granted it was back in the late 90's so he may have shrunk since then. I am a tall woman so I always notice men taller than me when I am in heels because I become 6ft tall. Trump is taller than Biden- 2 or 3 inches Not that it should matter. No one is a Dukakis or Perot here. you have seen the pics of Trump leaning forward, right? And you have seen his almost falling of the ramp? it's because his heels are boosted inside the shoe, which makes a small incline much steeper for him. But of course you are right that on TV stage, that won't be obvious.
	__________________ The things that you're liable To read in the Bible It ain't necessarily so

4th September 2020, 09:47 PM	#212
Sherkeu Master Poster Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Disneyland Posts: 2,478	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza you have seen the pics of Trump leaning forward, right? And you have seen his almost falling of the ramp? it's because his heels are boosted inside the shoe, which makes a small incline much steeper for him. But of course you are right that on TV stage, that won't be obvious. Ha! This gave me a vision of Trump getting 'shoe lift' lessons from Tom Cruise. He is flawless with his high heels. Or perhaps Simon Cowell and his 'boots'. But I hardly think the height disparity is an issue this year. This are both old shrinking men.
	Last edited by Sherkeu; 4th September 2020 at 09:50 PM.

4th September 2020, 11:15 PM	#213
Venom Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: United States Posts: 4,957	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza you have seen the pics of Trump leaning forward, right? And you have seen his almost falling of the ramp? it's because his heels are boosted inside the shoe, which makes a small incline much steeper for him. But of course you are right that on TV stage, that won't be obvious. Trump is clearly taller than Obama, who is Biden's height almost exactly. But sure the proportionally small difference probably won't be a factor at all.

4th September 2020, 11:50 PM	#214
Firestone Proud Award Award recipient Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Belgium Posts: 2,998	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part. Ukrainian tapes, Durham "investigation", senator Johnson's Burisma hearing. Will it actually work? For now it didn't (remember when they tried "Obamagate"?). 59 days
	__________________ The method of science is tried and true. It is not perfect, it's just the best we have. And to abandon it, with its skeptical protocols is the pathway to a dark age. -- Carl Sagan

5th September 2020, 12:38 AM	#215
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,852	Originally Posted by Venom Trump is clearly taller than Obama, who is Biden's height almost exactly. But sure the proportionally small difference probably won't be a factor at all. no, he isn't. https://www.quora.com/Is-President-T...resident-Obama Trump lies about everything. Why do people think he is honest about his height?
	__________________ The things that you're liable To read in the Bible It ain't necessarily so

5th September 2020, 09:00 AM	#216
Venom Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: United States Posts: 4,957	Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza no, he isn't. https://www.quora.com/Is-President-T...resident-Obama Trump lies about everything. Why do people think he is honest about his height? Obama is much younger than Trump with better posture. I don't doubt that he was once 6'2" or 6'3".

5th September 2020, 09:23 AM	#217
Safe-Keeper Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Norway Posts: 10,396	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger What are they going to hit Biden with at the last minute like they did with Clinton? Biden has a pretty much squeaky clean record for the most part. I wonder if they'll go for the pedophile angle. There are some pictures of Biden kissing kids, appearing to look at the chest of a young girl, touching a (prepubescent) girl on the chest, et cetera. It made a stir on social media earlier in the campaign, but seems to have been forgotten about since. As for Trump, with all the leaks and tell-all books there have been, I'm sure there's people with even worse material on him waiting to drop it as an October surprise.
	__________________ "He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig

5th September 2020, 01:30 PM	#218
Venom Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: United States Posts: 4,957	The "creepy uncle" angle is tiresome pearl-clutching. It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it. And it's more often than not from the Trumpers, of course, one of the biggest creeps to become president.

5th September 2020, 01:36 PM	#219
Minoosh Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 12,326	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue All I can do is cast my one vote, but I'm in a place where that might actually matter at least a little. Do you see any evidence that Dems are working on a "get out the vote" effort there?

5th September 2020, 01:45 PM	#220
Delphic Oracle Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 5,407	Originally Posted by Venom The "creepy uncle" angle is tiresome pearl-clutching. It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it. And it's more often than not from the Trumpers, of course, one of the biggest creeps to become president. Any party officials watching: this is a terrible way to respond on consent issues.

5th September 2020, 01:47 PM	#221
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 31,391	Originally Posted by Minoosh Do you see any evidence that Dems are working on a "get out the vote" effort there? Honestly no. The national TV adds are about 50/50 constant Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-etc. For local elections the Republican adds are outplaying the Democratic ones massively. Again COVID might be a factor but I'm not getting the "Swing state" vibe here as much as I did in 2016. Maybe the Dems are focusing more elsewhere. But this is all just coming from one limited perspective.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate."

5th September 2020, 01:49 PM	#222
Safe-Keeper Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Norway Posts: 10,396	Originally Posted by Venom The "creepy uncle" angle is tiresome pearl-clutching. It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it. And it's more often than not from the Trumpers, of course, one of the biggest creeps to become president. I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator.
	__________________ "He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig

5th September 2020, 01:56 PM	#223
kookbreaker Evil Fokker Join Date: Aug 2001 Posts: 13,244	Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator. Also remember there was the rape allegation a few months back, that, while never disproven was shown to be more and more far-fetched as investigations went on. Also one Trump fan tried to claim that Biden complimented a young girl’s breast at an event that Biden could not have been at. That makes any more ‘creepy’ bits (which Biden did address somewhat and apologize for) a bit weak and need to be pushed uphill.
	__________________ www.spectrum-scientifics.com <- My store of science toys, instruments and general fun! Thanks for helping me win Best Toys in Philly Voter in 2011,2012, and 2014! We won' be discussing the disappointment that was 2013.

5th September 2020, 03:33 PM	#224
Venom Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: United States Posts: 4,957	Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle Any party officials watching: this is a terrible way to respond on consent issues. No doubt about that.

5th September 2020, 04:51 PM	#225
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 29,601	Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator. On the other hand, Trump will try anything and know that his fans don't care about hypocrisy. Remember that he brought those who made allegations against Bill Clinton to sit in the front row of his debate with Hillary Clinton.
	__________________ "The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

5th September 2020, 05:59 PM	#226
Venom Illuminator Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: United States Posts: 4,957	The sad thing is the Democrats can't do such tactics or the holier than thou Independents and "fence sitters" might see that as the Democrats taking a radical left turn.

5th September 2020, 06:14 PM	#227
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 29,601	Originally Posted by Venom The sad thing is the Democrats can't do such tactics or the holier than thou Independents and "fence sitters" might see that as the Democrats taking a radical left turn. Trump presents himself as an ***** and he is an ***. He wins all of the "I want an ***" vote. Trying to chase the "I want an ***" vote when you are not an ***** is a bad strategy. Yes, it lacks authenticity and yes, people who want to vote for a dignified candidate are going to be put off by someone who tries 4Chan tactics.
	__________________ "The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

5th September 2020, 06:14 PM	#228
Minoosh Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 12,326	Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator. I've known a few "handsy" guys who were not creepy. Some of them are, of course, but I had one boss who was just like that ... he could walk up and put an arm around me and I would think nothing of it. Even though I was 25 and he was 60.

5th September 2020, 07:42 PM	#229
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 87,749	Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper I wonder if they'll go for the pedophile angle. There are some pictures of Biden kissing kids, appearing to look at the chest of a young girl, touching a (prepubescent) girl on the chest, et cetera. It made a stir on social media earlier in the campaign, but seems to have been forgotten about since...... I can't see this being credible to anyone except Trump's cultists. And as for bringing Biden's accusers to the debates, meh. I suspect Trump will try because he wants YV scandal.
	Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 5th September 2020 at 07:48 PM.

5th September 2020, 08:19 PM	#230
theprestige Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Hong Kong Posts: 50,511	Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Same reason I think it didn't get much traction when they tried to point out Hillary was married to a rapist. Given the choice between a creep like Trump, caught on tape bragging about sexually assaulting women, and a guy who's... kinda creepy, I'd take the guy who was kinda creepy over the overt sexual predator. LOL. Trump lies. Trump wants to be respected. Trump lies to get respect. The men of power in Hollywood are sexual predators. Trump boasts about being a predator. Meanwhile we have actual video of Biden acting creepy. And we have you looking at that video and saying, yeah, there's a pedophile narrative there. And that's a pro-Biden view of the situation.

5th September 2020, 11:27 PM	#231
Delvo Дэлво Δελϝο דֶלְבֹֿ देल्वो Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: North Tonawanda, NY Posts: 9,363	Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper As for Trump, with all the leaks and tell-all books there have been, I'm sure there's people with even worse material on him waiting to drop it as an October surprise. If they plan to time it that way to try to affect the election, they're ignorant of the situation we're facing and how it got this way. A brief summary of the politics-watching life of a Republican/conservative or even a resident of a mostly Republican/conservative area... •Turn on a TV news show/channel that isn't Fox: watch them fling a bunch of false accusations about what horrible monsters you and almost everybody you know are, along with famous Republicans you don't personally know. •Read an article about politics online or in a newspaper: watch them fling a bunch of false accusations about what horrible monsters you and almost everybody you know are, along with famous Republicans you don't personally know. •Listen to or read speeches by famous Democrats: more of the same •Meet a Democrat or political lefty in person who wants to talk about politics: get yelled at with false accusations about what horrible monsters you and everybody you know are, try to reason with them, just get interrupted with more of the same because they're not listening because they're too anxious to tell you more about what you supposedly think according to them instead of hearing anything you actually think. •Go online to forums or chatrooms or Twitter or whatever, any that aren't set up by and for Republican/conservative members: get treated to more of the same kind of behavior as the in-person one except that it's technically impossible to interrupt you but they still pay just as little attention to anything you say as an interrupter anyway because they're all too busy writing their next post to tell you how what they magically know you really think is something completely different from what you already told them you think, and there are lots more of them than you could meet in person so there's also the benefit of the "getting ganged up on" effect and watching them high-five each other over how much dishonesty & rabidness they manage to pack in per post. •Try to just stay out of all of that and live & let live: still get reminded of it periodically by in-your-face types trying to pick fights and infuse politics into everything else in life anyway, including in "entertainment" TV & movies that still always manage to present your kind of people as the stereotype that all the Democrat/lefty hate-speech claims you are no matter how non-political the subject might originally have been. There's not a lot of point in tossing one more attack onto the pile for an audience that's already used to the fact that the other side is always coming up with more & more false accusations & other lies. It's what they've been surrounded by for years, often essentially their whole lives. That's the framework through which any new ones added now will be interpreted. They already know not to believe the next one before it even happens, because political life is always just more of the same over & over again. Originally Posted by Venom It appears Americans in particular tend to get shocked by a little touchiness, or like to pretend to be shocked by it. Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper I wonder if Trump's own history is a large part of why the "creepy uncle Joe" angle failed. Everything about Trump is always why anything against Biden fails, with help from the "ELECTABLE!!!" mantra. But, aside from that, creepiness works pretty differently for adults and children. In adults, it's always assumed to be sexual, but in children there's a dichotomy. Then, sexual becomes much worse, but, as long as it's not sexual, it's not an issue at all to a lot of people because a lot of people, at least non-sexually, think it's just fine to act like you, non-sexually, own children's bodies. They're not generally acknowledged to have the right to refuse hugs, shoulder-grabs, head-pats, hair-strokes, pinches, lap-sitting, & so on until they get old enough for the automatic universal sexual element to apply. (And the people who are the most prone to see it this way are the very old, which are Biden's personal base.) So, what has Biden done that either was unmistakably sexual, or involved old enough targets to be out of the "it's OK to do any non-sexual thing you want to them" age range? There was something at an event he wasn't even at, and the rape thing that fizzled away, but that's all that anybody seems to remember. I've seen one case where he gave a woman the classic stroke-her-lower-jaw-toward-her-chin move, which says "I'm about to kiss you so I'm putting your face in kissing position", but somehow that's remained very obscure. I've only seen it once and I've never seen anybody else act at all aware of its existence. And anything that people don't know about, no matter how horrific it is, can't affect people's behavior. So that just leaves only the stuff that people do know about, which is just stuff that our culture treats as OK for really really old people (especially relatives, followed by famous people such as politicians) to do to children.

6th September 2020, 01:11 AM	#232
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,852	If Senate Republicans and the RNC let Trump **** up this election, they will truly have betrayed this country and have their party abolished. Honestly, it would be best for the GOP just just close shop and open under a new name and management.
	__________________ The things that you're liable To read in the Bible It ain't necessarily so

6th September 2020, 02:53 AM	#233
Minoosh Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 12,326	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue Honestly no. The national TV adds are about 50/50 constant Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-Trump-Biden-etc. For local elections the Republican adds are outplaying the Democratic ones massively. Again COVID might be a factor but I'm not getting the "Swing state" vibe here as much as I did in 2016. Maybe the Dems are focusing more elsewhere. But this is all just coming from one limited perspective. That's what makes the perspective valuable, though. It's a data point about how effective campaigns are from the point of view of a reaching individual voters. The only ads I hear are for Dems and I'm in a kind-of swing state. The ones robo-calling the house every day are the RNC or Trump re-election organization. Maybe because I or my mom are registered Republicans. I'd be impressed if the Dems reached out to me, but it's not happening yet. Actually I'm not hearing much about Biden in particular, either. But some health-care coalition is buying ads pointing out that Trump and the GOP put a lot of effort in wiping out the ACA without any plan in sight for helping make insurance obtainable for people with pre-existing conditions. My state also has a fairly unpopular Republican senator who I also never hear ads from. I barely watch TV though. I am basing this on news-talk radio or what gets served up online. I hope to see billboards popping up because it's one of the few mediums that people can't really filter out. ETA: I know the conventional wisdom is that advertising works to sway people's votes, but conventional wisdom fairly often turns out to be wrong these days.
	Last edited by Minoosh; 6th September 2020 at 02:59 AM. Reason: Added more bloviation.

6th September 2020, 06:11 AM	#234
Craig4 Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: I live in a swamp Posts: 22,812	Originally Posted by JoeMorgue I'm hoping so too. My city was the only major metro area in Florida to go red rather than blue in 2016 and that was by a thin hair's margin. I'm really hoping it's one of the tipping points in the other direction this time. All I can do is cast my one vote, but I'm in a place where that might actually matter at least a little. I lived in Florida in 2016 and was registered as a unaffiliated voter. I would have thought I was a highly prized commodity (living in the Tampa area). You'd think I would have been inundated with calls and door knockers. Nothing. I had one flyer for Clinton on my door. That was it. I see Biden's lead is narrowing in Florida. He was at around seven points ahead and is now about three. I'm curious to see if Trump's recent quotes about the military improves Biden's lead. His comments about Vietnam veterans likely won't help him in Florida being a state with a lot of retired military people as well as a lot of Military bases.
	Last edited by Craig4; 6th September 2020 at 06:16 AM.

6th September 2020, 06:24 AM	#235
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 29,601	Originally Posted by Craig4 I lived in Florida in 2016 and was registered as a unaffiliated voter. I would have thought I was a highly prized commodity (living in the Tampa area). You'd think I would have been inundated with calls and door knockers. Nothing. I had one flyer for Clinton on my door. That was it. I see Biden's lead is narrowing in Florida. He was at around seven points ahead and is now about three. I'm curious to see if Trump's recent quotes about the military improves Biden's lead. His comments about Vietnam veterans likely won't help him in Florida being a state with a lot of retired military people as well as a lot of Military bases. Could the narrowing of the lead just be part of the convention bounce? In which case it will probably - hopefully - wear off.
	__________________ "The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)