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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , joe biden

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Old 3rd November 2020, 04:45 AM   #41
uke2se
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Given that President Trump significantly outperformed the polls in swing states last time around, I'm tempted to believe the so called "skewed" polls AND give him the margin of error too.

As a result, IMO Biden +5 points is too close to call so Michigan is a Trump-leaning toss-up and Biden is just edging Wisconsin.

edited to add.....

Florida and Pennsylvania are IMO lost causes and will go to President Trump by a comfortable margin.
Is this a defense mechanism on your part? Because there's nothing in the real world that indicates what you are saying.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 04:47 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Is this a defense mechanism on your part? Because there's nothing in the real world that indicates what you are saying.
To be fair, he is saying he is going by what happened last time round:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

ETA: There are definitely similarities if you look at the swing states and the margins of error as well as the snake chart.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 04:50 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by rdwight View Post
....
No one with a straight face can tell me these store fronts are boarding up in case Trump supports go wild if he loses.
Picture me with the straightest face you can imagine:

There store fronts are being boarded up in case Trump supports [sic] go wild if he loses.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 04:50 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
To be fair, he is saying he is going by what happened last time round:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
It just annoys me that his kind of thinking might have a real world impact in that Democrats might just lay down flat in the face of cheating and voter-suppression because OMG THE POLLS ARE ALWAYS WRONG TRUMP WILL WIN!!!

It's also doom-screaming for the off-chance of being labled a prophet should the improbable occur. Nobody will remember if you're wrong, but everyone will laud you if you're right.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 04:51 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Picture me with the straightest face you can imagine:

There store fronts are being boarded up in case Trump supports [sic] go wild if he loses.
Well acted, but they aren't.

They really aren't.

Like I say, I am hoping for a Biden win but the store owners fear a Trump win because of what could happen to their stores if he does.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:02 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Is this a defense mechanism on your part? Because there's nothing in the real world that indicates what you are saying.
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
To be fair, he is saying he is going by what happened last time round:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

ETA: There are definitely similarities if you look at the swing states and the margins of error as well as the snake chart.
Yup, as angrysoba points out, we're seeing exactly the same thing as happened last time around:
  • The polls generally narrowing significantly as polling approaches - which usually happens
  • Swing states changing even more than the national numbers in President Trump's favour
  • President Trump performing within the margin of error, but outperforming the polls by 1% to 3%

In the event that President Trump gets re-elected it will be another sign that the Democratic Party have once again misjudged their candidate. Over the last 40 years, Democrats will turn out in force, in key swing states, for a "rock star" candidate who will sweep them off their feet (Bill Clinton and Obama). OTOH if they are presented with a less exciting candidate, Gore, Hillary, Dukakis, Kerry, then they'll stay at home.

Joe Biden, whose campaign was almost entirely "I may be old and bland but at least I'm not President Trump" is definitely in that latter category IMO.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:10 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Yup, as angrysoba points out, we're seeing exactly the same thing as happened last time around:
  • The polls generally narrowing significantly as polling approaches - which usually happens
  • Swing states changing even more than the national numbers in President Trump's favour
  • President Trump performing within the margin of error, but outperforming the polls by 1% to 3%

In the event that President Trump gets re-elected it will be another sign that the Democratic Party have once again misjudged their candidate. Over the last 40 years, Democrats will turn out in force, in key swing states, for a "rock star" candidate who will sweep them off their feet (Bill Clinton and Obama). OTOH if they are presented with a less exciting candidate, Gore, Hillary, Dukakis, Kerry, then they'll stay at home.

Joe Biden, whose campaign was almost entirely "I may be old and bland but at least I'm not President Trump" is definitely in that latter category IMO.
But we're not seeing the same thing at all. Biden has a far bigger lead, nationally and in the swing states, than Clinton ever had. There's no comparison between the two election years. Trump might win, but it's disingenious to say that it's the same as in 2016.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:16 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Given that President Trump significantly outperformed the polls in swing states last time around, I'm tempted to believe the so called "skewed" polls AND give him the margin of error too.
Trump mostly outperformed the 2016 polls because those polls incorrectly gave a large share to Johnson that ended up going to Trump. And because the poll adjustments did not account for education level.

The pollsters speculating "shy Trump" voters got the numbers right, but for the wrong reasons. Trump mostly succeeded on gaining Johnson polls. Subtract that, and there was no significant "shy Trump" voter contingent.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:17 AM   #49
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I find The Don's ceaseless cassandrism really, really tiring.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:19 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
Three cases of Trump rally people getting stranded in less than a week... was this happening before and just not getting talked about yet? Or did something change recently?
From the social media post I read, if it was valid, it may have been because word started going around that the bus owners were getting stiffed, they weren't being paid. The other problem may have been with the bus operators (the drivers) objecting to people crowding onto buses and not wearing face masks. In many locales, bus operators have made it clear they feel very vulnerable and some have forced companies and transit agencies to enforce mandatory mask wearing. Regardless of politics, the bus operators may have been complaining about riders not wearing masks, the bus owners fearful they won't get paid.

I can see certain owners taking a page from the trump playbook and saying, 'Okay, we'll bring the people to the rally but unless we get paid we're not picking them up afterwards. You figure out how to get them home.'

Sounds like a typical trump operation.

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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:20 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
But we're not seeing the same thing at all. Biden has a far bigger lead, nationally and in the swing states, than Clinton ever had. There's no comparison between the two election years. Trump might win, but it's disingenious to say that it's the same as in 2016.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 3.7% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 8% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 2.6% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 6% up less than a month before the election.

I'd say that's similar enough

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 1% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 5% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 1.8% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 4% up less than a month before the election

I'd say that's similar enough too
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:21 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
I find The Don's ceaseless cassandrism really, really tiring.
So do I, but please remember that Cassandra was doomed to know the future but have no-one believe her.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:35 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Conservative voters do not riot and loot urban areas. They mostly do not even live in them. The boarding up is obviously done against what we have seen all year in cites around the country.

In a normal election, I'd probably agree with you, but this one is far from normal. We've never had one candidate preparing his supporters to refuse to accept the results of the vote, and also encouraging their violent tendencies.

And let's not forget that, this year, there have already been instances of people like the Boogaloo Boys trying to start things with false-flag attacks.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:37 AM   #54
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It's going to be a close race, we're not going to get a President tonight, though I have a feeling Trump is going to say he won and when it's all over Biden will have won and Trump is not going to go quietly into the night.

But perhaps the Republicans know this isn't going to be an easy election and that is one of the reasons they pushed through the Supreme Court Justice right before the election.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:43 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Is this a defense mechanism on your part? Because there's nothing in the real world that indicates what you are saying.
I am concerned as well.
Pennsylvania has been polling "Biden" for weeks now, I just don't see that as being accurate.
The region around Philly seems a lot more "Trump" enthused than even 2016.
Northeast Philly, and South Philly could even make the city of Philadelphia close (Northeast Philly alone has more residents than the entire population of Pittsburg)
I drove by a line of hundreds of voters waiting in line in Bucks county at 7:15 this morning.


I am hoping that the polls have it right in Pennsylvania- but there are a lot of indicators that they do not.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 05:46 AM   #56
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Well acted, but they aren't.

They really aren't.

Like I say, I am hoping for a Biden win but the store owners fear a Trump win because of what could happen to their stores if he does.
The stores in my neighborhood are already boarded up for some different riots- so we are good . Plus, the National Guard is in town too.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:03 AM   #57
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 3.7% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 8% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 2.6% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 6% up less than a month before the election.

I'd say that's similar enough

In 2016, Hillary Clinton was 1% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 5% up less than a month before the election. President Trump won by 1.2%

In 2020, Joe Biden is 1.8% ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election having been 4% up less than a month before the election

I'd say that's similar enough too
Fivethirtyeight has Biden up 4.6% in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election. Predicted vote share is Biden + 4.7%

ETA: And Trump won Pennsylvania with 0.7%, not 1.2%
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:04 AM   #58
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I am heading out to a cabin in the woods for the next week. Probably bringing lots of guns.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:07 AM   #59
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I'm content (do I have a choice?) to wait and see what happens. Polling has shown a huge number of Americans say that, the pandemic plus the election -- with the first-time-ever fears that at least one of the candidates may not abide by the results -- have created stress levels that have impacted their mental/physical health.

I really fear for the United States if the wrong candidate wins.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:31 AM   #60
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I can't believe I haven't done one of these yet this time around. The one for the previous Election was "yikesy", to say the least.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:39 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
One of the the things I'm looking forward to most after tomorrow: no more campaign ads. If I hear the word "radical" one more time, I'm going to throw something through the damn TV.
OK, here's the most insane political ad I've ever seen. (I won't search for a link because I don't want to add to its hit count. Feel free if you like.)

Jason Lewis and his wife on the gun range, talking about those Radical Lefties. He even names his opponent. The ad ends with Lewis cocking his pistol and firing off three rounds into a target. ******* insane.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:40 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
OK, here's the most insane political ad I've ever seen. (I won't search for a link because I don't want to add to its hit count. Feel free if you like.)

Jason Lewis and his wife on the gun range, talking about those Radical Lefties. The ad ends with Lewis cocking his pistol and firing off three rounds into a target. ******* insane.
That's every Republican ad in my area. They are all "Look I can hold a gun and I hate liberals. I literally have no other personality traits or qualities."
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:43 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Fivethirtyeight has Biden up 4.6% in Pennsylvania on the eve of the election. Predicted vote share is Biden + 4.7%

ETA: And Trump won Pennsylvania with 0.7%, not 1.2%
RCP has Biden up by 2.6%.

You're right about the 0.7, not 1.2%

Nevertheless, if RCP is right and the trajectory is the same, President Trump is in for a relatively comfortable win.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:43 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post

In the event that President Trump gets re-elected it will be another sign that the Democratic Party have once again misjudged their candidate. Over the last 40 years, Democrats will turn out in force, in key swing states, for a "rock star" candidate who will sweep them off their feet (Bill Clinton and Obama). OTOH if they are presented with a less exciting candidate, Gore, Hillary, Dukakis, Kerry, then they'll stay at home.

Joe Biden, whose campaign was almost entirely "I may be old and bland but at least I'm not President Trump" is definitely in that latter category IMO.
But the person who wins the democratic primary is often someone that won the most votes from Democrats in those key states.

What is the alternative to that?

Last edited by BobTheCoward; 3rd November 2020 at 06:45 AM.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:50 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Given that President Trump significantly outperformed the polls in swing states last time around, I'm tempted to believe the so called "skewed" polls AND give him the margin of error too.

As a result, IMO Biden +5 points is too close to call so Michigan is a Trump-leaning toss-up and Biden is just edging Wisconsin.

edited to add.....

Florida and Pennsylvania are IMO lost causes and will go to President Trump by a comfortable margin.
I'm afraid you are correct. I'm rather pessimistic today. I also think there will be a small, but measurable, effect of spoiled absentee ballots. In a close election, 0.5% matters.

On the opposite side, turnout appears to be incredibly high, which would also skew the poll results, but probably in the opposite direction, so I'm not without hope this morning.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:52 AM   #66
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I'm at my polling place, a school. I've never seen more than 50 people tops. The line today wraps the block. I'm at the far end of the football field! I estimate 800 or so in line ahead of me. This one is different.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:53 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
RCP has Biden up by 2.6%.

You're right about the 0.7, not 1.2%

Nevertheless, if RCP is right and the trajectory is the same, President Trump is in for a relatively comfortable win.
RCP is getting that 2.6 average by including Rasmussen who always skews 3 points towards Republicans, and Trafalgar who has been caught faking polls last week and also skews Republican.

I wouldn't trust them too far right now.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 06:57 AM   #68
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I started to type 'If America re-elects Trump then it's finished and deservedly so' but then realised that's a bit unfair on the probably comfortably more than 1/2 of voters who'll vote for Biden and still somehow lose...

WTAF America though, this shouldn't even be close!
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:01 AM   #69
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I think Trump will loose, concede badly and petulantly, and will do one of two things:

1. Stay in the US and declare himself the True POTUS, engage in a never endimg cycle of rallies for, and grifts on the MAGA crowd.

2. Flee to another country, claiming he's in fear of his life from the deepstate and form a government in exile.

In either situation, he'll support from Fox news who will strategically pivot to becoming the Democrat opposition channel, but not necessarily slavishly support Trump.

Also, he will attempt to form his own News Network.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:10 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
But the person who wins the democratic primary is often someone that won the most votes from Democrats in those key states.
Well, yes and no. If all the primaries were held on the same day then you might have a case - but then again states that are safely Democratic (California, New York) or Republican (Texas, Ohio) have a large influence.

The fact that many candidates drop out so early because of the length of the primary process means that candidates who could make significant inroads later with the bigger states are already out of the race.

Also the people who vote in primaries tend to be the party faithful, not voters wanting to be wooed. In the UK Jeremy Corbyn was very popular with the Labour Party faithful, but much less so with the populace at large.

Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
What is the alternative to that?
There's no alternative per-se but having a less tortuous, expensive and lengthy primary process could help. Then again IMO there weren't that many strong candidates in any case.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:12 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I'm at my polling place, a school. I've never seen more than 50 people tops. The line today wraps the block. I'm at the far end of the football field! I estimate 800 or so in line ahead of me. This one is different.
I am not particularly happy to see the long lines of engaged voters this year.
Considering how many Democratic votes were cast early, I suspect that there are a lot of Trumpsters in those lines.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:13 AM   #72
The Don
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I'm at my polling place, a school. I've never seen more than 50 people tops. The line today wraps the block. I'm at the far end of the football field! I estimate 800 or so in line ahead of me. This one is different.
This is another bizarre thing about the US election process. It's enormously expensive to administer and still results in an exceptionally poor level of "customer service".

I wouldn't claim that the UK system is world leading but we manage to have a polling station for approximately every 800-1,000 registered voters. I've voted in cities, towns and in rural areas and have seldom had to wait, much less wait in line with hundreds of other people.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:14 AM   #73
Distracted1
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Originally Posted by Ethan Thane Athen View Post
I started to type 'If America re-elects Trump then it's finished and deservedly so' but then realised that's a bit unfair on the probably comfortably more than 1/2 of voters who'll vote for Biden and still somehow lose...

WTAF America though, this shouldn't even be close!
At its' extreme, our system could have a candidate winning with 22% of the vote against a "loser" with 78%.

It is nuts!
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:15 AM   #74
TragicMonkey
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I am not particularly happy to see the long lines of engaged voters this year.
Considering how many Democratic votes were cast early, I suspect that there are a lot of Trumpsters in those lines.
Maybe it's just my neighborhood, but it's mostly young white people and old black people here. If stereotypes be true that suggests this place is going for Biden. But I live in a very solidly blue city. I don't think a Republican has held office here in sixty years.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:16 AM   #75
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There's this vague, usually unsaid but obvious in the subtext, mentality you often see in America that it's... distasteful to make voting "too" easy because it's so important you should just... get over it being difficult.

Of course the problem with that is how easy that mentality is to shift into "Let's make voter harder than it needs to be just because" affect and the problem with that mentality is that it looks exactly like after the fact rationalization for voter suppression, which it often is.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:17 AM   #76
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Yesterday, I predicted that Trump would win all of the states labeled as "swing states" on the 270towin.com map, plus he would win Pennsylvania. That would leave Biden with 270 electoral votes, and a victory.

Today, I see that map shifted Arizona from "leaning Biden" to "toss up".

It's going to be a long night.


Unless.....turnout. It's really all about turnout. Who are all those people that didn't bother to vote last time, but corrected that mistake this time?
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:20 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by rdwight View Post
This is really concerning in the sense that I have never seen this anticipation during an election season. Any of the international posters have any similar experiences to share? I hope this is a once in a lifetime event, even if the end result is an overreaction to nothing happening.

edit to add: The coverage of businesses in New York in regards to this are quite funny in the sense that they don't have the balls to say the obvious.. that they are scared of the reaction to a Trump re-election causing the havoc. No one with a straight face can tell me these store fronts are boarding up in case Trump supports go wild if he loses. View that however you want, but that reality should be considered.
Thatís because right wingers arenít satisfied with vandalism. They kill people and plot to kidnap elected officials.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:20 AM   #78
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Even in 2016 Trump didn't win every state that was close. Clinton took New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Maine.

270 has Biden at 258 safe or likely votes, Trump at 125 safe or likely votes. That means Biden just has to win one (maybe two if it's one of the really small ones) of the "maybe" states and Trump has to win pretty much literally all of them. And that didn't happen in 2016. The margin was much closer.
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Last edited by JoeMorgue; 3rd November 2020 at 07:21 AM.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:22 AM   #79
Distracted1
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Yesterday, I predicted that Trump would win all of the states labeled as "swing states" on the 270towin.com map, plus he would win Pennsylvania. That would leave Biden with 270 electoral votes, and a victory.

Today, I see that map shifted Arizona from "leaning Biden" to "toss up".

It's going to be a long night.


Unless.....turnout. It's really all about turnout. Who are all those people that didn't bother to vote last time, but corrected that mistake this time?
Yeah, as indicate above, I am worried about a high turnout.
The anti-Trump voters (and lets face it- that is all us "Biden Supporters" are) are already as motivated as any voting block has been in a long time. That there is massive turnout may indicate that the Trumpsters are rising to the challenge.

I need a Tums.
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Old 3rd November 2020, 07:23 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Meadmaker View Post
Unless.....turnout. It's really all about turnout. Who are all those people that didn't bother to vote last time, but corrected that mistake this time?
It is easier to vote against. IMO higher turnout is good sign for Biden (taking aside general view that higher turnout favors democrats on average).
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