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Old Yesterday, 06:53 AM   #481
The Don
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
This is just so sad.

I have more to say but I need to say it in another thread.
The bad news is that there's at least a 4-6 week lag between changes in infection rates and changes in death rates. If the change in administration results in a significant reduction in infection rates, it could still be March or even April before that is reflected in the death rates. Here in the UK the infection rates have been falling for the last week or more thanks to the "lockdown"* but that hasn't been reflected in the hospitalisation or death rates yet.

The US is currently at 435k, 500k will likely come up in February and I hope that the US doesn't get anywhere near a million. The expectation being set in the UK is that we're half way through the second wave so if we're at 100k deaths now, we should expect 150k.


* - not really a lockdown but there are significant constraints on meeting people
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Old Yesterday, 06:56 AM   #482
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
The bad news is that there's at least a 4-6 week lag between changes in infection rates and changes in death rates. If the change in administration results in a significant reduction in infection rates, it could still be March or even April before that is reflected in the death rates. Here in the UK the infection rates have been falling for the last week or more thanks to the "lockdown"* but that hasn't been reflected in the hospitalisation or death rates yet.

The US is currently at 435k, 500k will likely come up in February and I hope that the US doesn't get anywhere near a million. The expectation being set in the UK is that we're half way through the second wave so if we're at 100k deaths now, we should expect 150k.


* - not really a lockdown but there are significant constraints on meeting people
Is there really any reason to think it will? Probably see a bit less after the post Christmas and New Year's hump caused by people travelling and gathering and spiking infections, but nothing has really changed with the Biden presidency.

People are still going to work, going to school, going to malls and casinos and restaurants. vaccination is still plodding along, but we're nowhere near significant numbers and even optimistic goals put us months away.

I see no reason to expect, as of yet, that Biden's administration has done much to change the current trajectory of the virus.
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Old Yesterday, 07:05 AM   #483
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Is there really any reason to think it will? Probably see a bit less after the post Christmas and New Year's hump caused by people travelling and gathering and spiking infections, but nothing has really changed with the Biden presidency.

People are still going to work, going to school, going to malls and casinos and restaurants. vaccination is still plodding along, but we're nowhere near significant numbers and even optimistic goals put us months away.

I see no reason to expect, as of yet, that Biden's administration has done much to change the current trajectory of the virus.
Sadly, probably not.

Mostly of course this is due to the face the states are managing (or otherwise) the Covid primary response. Changing the rhetoric may have some beneficial effects and if the Biden administration choose to mobilise a federal response to support, as opposed to frustrating, the states then there is at least some hope.

South Dakota will still be South Dakota, and the majority of South Dakotans may continue to treat Covid as a hoax, but a greater proportion may start to wear masks, observe social distancing and avail themselves of the vaccine when it's offered.
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Old Yesterday, 07:13 AM   #484
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sadly, probably not.

Mostly of course this is due to the face the states are managing (or otherwise) the Covid primary response. Changing the rhetoric may have some beneficial effects and if the Biden administration choose to mobilise a federal response to support, as opposed to frustrating, the states then there is at least some hope.

South Dakota will still be South Dakota, and the majority of South Dakotans may continue to treat Covid as a hoax, but a greater proportion may start to wear masks, observe social distancing and avail themselves of the vaccine when it's offered.
Right wing resistance is definitely a problem, but it's not the only problem.

Plenty of liberal controlled states are also experiencing uncontrolled spread. Liberal New England, including my home state of Massachusetts, is routinely among the top in covid deaths.

California is another example, where pollution standards were suspended to allow crematoriums to dispose of all the excess bodies, but shopping malls are still open. ICUs are reaching 0% capacity but people are still huffing away on treadmills at indoor gyms.

The message from leadership in these states is absolutely incoherent. Stay home, stop the spread, but everything is still open and there's no relief money. Stay home, but support local business, but also don't break social distancing rules, but the casinos are open, but stay home, unless you don't.

It's maddening.

I think the deep red states will absolutely resist any federal guidance on the issue, but there's still a strong case to be made for a strong federal response. More reasonable states might follow the fed's lead if there were a good plan that actually kept people home with monthly cash relief to keep them current on their bills. I see nothing like that in the works.

Seems to me that we've just accepted the death rate as is, and it will continue until mass vaccination is achieved.
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Old Yesterday, 07:20 AM   #485
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
You should speak with your HR department and request a reasonable accommodation.


Yeah, this. It sounds like No Other has a legitimate problem, that needs a solution, but "Well, let's just not let anyone wear a mask during a pandemic" is simply not reasonable.

If there is no other reasonable solution (hearing aids, maybe? Someone to take extensive notes during meetings?), then yes, No Other, you are disabled, as distressing as that may be, and if this means you can't work until the pandemic is effectively contained, then that's what disability payments are for.

That the US, the richest country in history, is having such difficulty dealing with such actual real problems, letting themselves get all tied up with confusion over what should be straightforward solutions, is a huge condemnation of the entire US system. That so many Americans have seemed to not realize this even after the **** show of the last year is just incredibly depressing.
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Old Yesterday, 07:21 AM   #486
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Seems to me that we've just accepted the death rate as is, and it will continue until mass vaccination is achieved.
Which assumes that mass vaccination will fix the problem. IMO the issues with that assumption are:
  • The vaccination programme could be badly bungled so that not enough people are vaccinated or the gap between vaccines is such that the desired level of immunity isn't achieved
  • The programme could be successful but immunity could be comparatively short-lived and the process may have to be regularly repeated or even be continuous
  • The virus could mutate and those who thought they were immune are no longer immune
  • There aren't long-term health implications for hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of people who haven't actually died of Covid but who end up with life-limiting conditions
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Old Yesterday, 07:31 AM   #487
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Let's assume, as it is my sincere hope, that Biden's admin does a good job with vaccine rollout.

That's months away. How is what is currently being done meaningfully different than the 1 year long blood-bath that occurred under the Trump admin? Biden benefits politically from being in charge when we are hopefully on the cusp of vaccination, but that's just happenstance. For the immediate future, Biden is dealing with conditions very similar to what Trump was dealing with, uncontrolled spread with no vaccine available. Trump just let the virus rip through the country and kill. What's Biden's response?

What is Biden's team actually doing that is materially different than Trump's?

I see no murmurs of a stay home order, which is the one thing we've seen work in other countries. "Trust the science" and "better data" are good, but we already know what works. Staying home. And it's the one thing Biden's team has made no mention in the last few days.
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Old Yesterday, 07:56 AM   #488
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Let's assume, as it is my sincere hope, that Biden's admin does a good job with vaccine rollout.

That's months away. How is what is currently being done meaningfully different than the 1 year long blood-bath that occurred under the Trump admin? Biden benefits politically from being in charge when we are hopefully on the cusp of vaccination, but that's just happenstance. For the immediate future, Biden is dealing with conditions very similar to what Trump was dealing with, uncontrolled spread with no vaccine available. Trump just let the virus rip through the country and kill. What's Biden's response?

What is Biden's team actually doing that is materially different than Trump's?

I see no murmurs of a stay home order, which is the one thing we've seen work in other countries. "Trust the science" and "better data" are good, but we already know what works. Staying home. And it's the one thing Biden's team has made no mention in the last few days.
I suppose the relevant question is "What can Biden do to significantly affect things in the short to medium term". In European countries governments have implemented various forms of regional and/or national lockdowns which have proved effective in reducing case numbers.

Would a stay at home order enable Biden to force states only to open essential businesses, to prohibit people mixing outside their household or household bubble or could the Governor(s) of one or more states just tell him to shove it where the sun doesn't shine ?

Even if he had that power, and there was general compliance, it would still be nearly two months before that is reflected in the death toll. I'm not sure the American public have that much patience.
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Old Yesterday, 08:18 AM   #489
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I suppose the relevant question is "What can Biden do to significantly affect things in the short to medium term". In European countries governments have implemented various forms of regional and/or national lockdowns which have proved effective in reducing case numbers.

Would a stay at home order enable Biden to force states only to open essential businesses, to prohibit people mixing outside their household or household bubble or could the Governor(s) of one or more states just tell him to shove it where the sun doesn't shine ?

Even if he had that power, and there was general compliance, it would still be nearly two months before that is reflected in the death toll. I'm not sure the American public have that much patience.
I don't think there's much that Biden could do to force noncompliant states to shutdown, but it seems pretty clear that states can't shutdown, even if they wanted to, without assistance from the federal government.

These states simply don't have the cash on hand to provide the type of relief necessary to keep everyone home. In that way, it has to be a federal response. The federal government has the power to borrow, print, allocate, etc the large sums of money that would be necessary to keep people home without enough money to not go broke.

I have no idea about the complexities of national emergencies, spending of federal money, and so on. Could be a legal mess.

All of that said, the first step on anything like this would be Biden and other Democrats discussing it openly, or at least signaling in some way they are interested in doing so. I don't see that happening anywhere.
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Old Yesterday, 08:26 AM   #490
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I don't think there's much that Biden could do to force noncompliant states to shutdown, but it seems pretty clear that states can't shutdown, even if they wanted to, without assistance from the federal government.

These states simply don't have the cash on hand to provide the type of relief necessary to keep everyone home. In that way, it has to be a federal response. The federal government has the power to borrow, print, allocate, etc the large sums of money that would be necessary to keep people home without enough money to not go broke.

I have no idea about the complexities of national emergencies, spending of federal money, and so on. Could be a legal mess.

All of that said, the first step on anything like this would be Biden and other Democrats discussing it openly, or at least signaling in some way they are interested in doing so. I don't see that happening anywhere.

The problem is, even now, the GOP is playing silly buggers to keep screwing things up. Any attempt to actually do something needs to address this reality.

Biden should introduce the "Just Every Solution Unites States Congress Has Refused In Stupid Government Un*** Your System!*" bill that solves everything.



*"JESUS CHRIST GUYS!"
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Old Yesterday, 08:32 AM   #491
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
The problem is, even now, the GOP is playing silly buggers to keep screwing things up. Any attempt to actually do something needs to address this reality.

Biden should introduce the "Just Every Solution Unites States Congress Has Refused In Stupid Government Un*** Your System!*" bill that solves everything.



*"JESUS CHRIST GUYS!"
I'm not seeing any reports anywhere of Biden even considering a stay at home approach to covid.

That's my point. There's not even an aspiration to take the dramatic action needed to slow the death toll.

It would be one thing if Biden couldn't get it done because of lack of political willpower or obstructionism or whatever, but it's not even clear that Biden himself would support such measures.

If I'm missing some press release where Biden supports nationwide stay home orders, please show me.
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Old Yesterday, 04:14 PM   #492
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
...

I see no murmurs of a stay home order, which is the one thing we've seen work in other countries. "Trust the science" and "better data" are good, but we already know what works. Staying home. And it's the one thing Biden's team has made no mention in the last few days.
IIRC Biden mandated masks in all public (federal?) buildings. He thought mandating masks for the country would be counterproductive. States of course can manage stricter mask mandates.

I agree, directly infringing on idiots' freedoms could very well backfire.
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Old Yesterday, 04:16 PM   #493
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I'm not seeing any reports anywhere of Biden even considering a stay at home approach to covid.

That's my point. There's not even an aspiration to take the dramatic action needed to slow the death toll.

It would be one thing if Biden couldn't get it done because of lack of political willpower or obstructionism or whatever, but it's not even clear that Biden himself would support such measures.

If I'm missing some press release where Biden supports nationwide stay home orders, please show me.
I fail to see evidence for that highlighted complaint.

You are looking at a single action and ignoring all the rest.
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Old Yesterday, 06:32 PM   #494
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I'm not seeing any reports anywhere of Biden even considering a stay at home approach to covid.

That's my point. There's not even an aspiration to take the dramatic action needed to slow the death toll.


Unfortunately, having already been politicized to death by the former president and several GOP governors and state legislatures, there's already several court rulings that declare any such mandate unconstitutional. As stupid as that may be, these are the cards that Biden has been dealt, and he needs to play the hand as well as he can.

Making an order that he knows will be attacked in the courts and in public opinion as being unconstitutional is just a non-starter. So he's done the best he can, with his EOs about the things the Federal government can control - Federal buildings and transport. I've been saying for a long time - leadership matters. Biden can't simply order people to use masks and stay home, because there are literally millions of people who will resist that with all their heart because of how stupid it's all become.

So he leads by example, in hopes that the stupid will abate voluntarily.

I posted this on Facebook about two weeks ago, and it applies even more to the US than Canada:

Quote:
So, I was watching the CBC news a while ago, they had the mayor of Windsor on a panel talking about the newly announced Ontario restrictions, and he made a good point: we will not stop this pandemic via enforcement. There aren't enough police to even try that. And he's right. We're not a police state; even if we had every cop in the country on duty 24 hours a day, there just aren't enough of them to force us all to stay home.

What will do the job is us, as citizens, doing what needs to be done voluntarily, doing our duty as citizens. That's how free countries work, they can't work any other way.

So do what needs to be done. Stop looking for excuses to go out, stay home. Stop worrying about "what ifs" and "what abouts". We'll never get complete directions from the government on what to do, we need to use our best judgement. As the mayor said, if you're really not sure "Am I essential?", the answer is probably "No", so stay home. If you're not sure if the thing you want to buy is essential, it isn't. Stay home. As the man once said, this ain't rocket surgery.

Biden's hope is that by leading by example, the US public will do what needs to be done, and act like citizens, not partisans.
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Old Yesterday, 06:48 PM   #495
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i don't think a lockdown is really an option at this point. the vaccine is here and the people who have been trying to stop the spread are completely worn out and the people who don't care aren't going to start. whatever opportunity the government had to get a larger public buy to covid restrictions, and perhaps even vaccination at this point, was squandered long ago.
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Old Yesterday, 06:55 PM   #496
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From Worldometer:

Quote:
United States
Coronavirus Cases:
26,166,201
Deaths:
439,517

New Cases:
151,727
New Deaths:
3,912
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