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Old 18th February 2021, 07:41 AM   #41
Dr.Sid
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Well as for vaccine effectiveness, Israel data are pretty solid ..

https://www.jpost.com/health-science...nfected-658769

Quote:
The report, relying on data tracked until February 11, showed that a week after 523,000 people had received their second shot, only 544 were nevertheless infected.

...

No one who was vaccinated died, Maccabi reported.
The weak spot for the current Pfizer vaccine are the mutations though ..
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Old 18th February 2021, 07:55 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I suggest you look at Israel's stats. ...
Here is a preliminary, pre-print study out of Israel - already 10 days old, I haven't looked for newer material:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....06.21251283v1

The short is that they have kept testing hundreds of thoudsands of people even after their second vac shot, and they found close to 3,000 people who tested "positive" on the PCR test.
Compared to a cohort of unvaccinated people who got tested "positive" in the same time frame, they found that the PCR took, on average, almost twice as many cycles to yield a positive result, which implies an almost 4x reduction of virus load (number of virus particles) in the probe.

Now, besides the vaccinated people not getting symptomatically ill, or much less so, this result probably that they shed fewer virus particles while their infection lasts. This very plausibly translated to fewer infections inflicted on other persons, all other things being equal.

Several caveats apply:
- This is an observational study, not randomized - it may be non-representative for any base population
- PCR tests were done on standard naseopharyngal (sp.?) swabs, i.e. test swabs wiped in both throat and nose. Virus load in one of those locations is far more responsible for transmissions than in the other (I forgot which), bit the study could not discern whether virus load was equally reduced in both places, or in one more than in the other
- No information yet regarding the various virus variants (<- cool name for an experimental, post-post-modern jazz-punk band??) of concern
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Old 18th February 2021, 07:59 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Quote:
...a week after 523,000 people had received their second shot, only 544 were nevertheless infected...
I think this is a disturbingly high percentage - 1 in 1,000 infected in just a week?? This looks as if the vaccine does not prevent infections at all (only make them far less serious).

For reference, Germany, having only like 1.6 of her population vaccinated twice, recently averaged only 0.6 new infections per thousand. And authorities think this is still way too much.
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Old 18th February 2021, 08:20 AM   #44
Dr.Sid
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I think this is a disturbingly high percentage - 1 in 1,000 infected in just a week?? This looks as if the vaccine does not prevent infections at all (only make them far less serious).

For reference, Germany, having only like 1.6 of her population vaccinated twice, recently averaged only 0.6 new infections per thousand. And authorities think this is still way too much.
Yes, Germany has very low infection rates at the moment, compared to Israel.

And the article does compare it with control group:
Quote:
Maccabi ran a random test among its non-vaccinated clients at the same time and found that of 628,000 members of diverse profiles, 18,425 or 2.9% contracted coronavirus during the same period.
Which makes 97% improvement in vaccinated group, exactly what it's supposed to be.
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Old 18th February 2021, 08:52 AM   #45
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An important point to remember is that no vaccine on earth will produce a protective immune response in 100% of recipients.

A case in point. Bacterial pneumonia caused by Mannheimia haemolytica is very common in growing lambs, but there is a decent multivalent vaccine that protects against this. Every damn autumn, several times, I would get somewhat irate (or alternatively distressed) farmers turning up with one or two dead lambs, killed by this infection. "But they all had their jags, why is this happening?"

And every time I would patiently explain that no vaccine produces a protective immune response in 100% of recipients. "You've got one dead lamb (or maybe two). Believe me, if you hadn't vaccinated, you'd be looking at a substantial heap of dead lambs. That's why you're using the vaccine."

Mannheimia haemolytica is a free-living bacterium found in soil and on plants. It is always with us and can't be eliminated. That's the situation where you have constant exposure to a pathogen in a vaccinated population. For a farmer, it minimises the losses, and you can estimate how many lambs were saved by the vaccine and show that it was a cost-effective exercise (as well as being important on welfare grounds). But for a human population? Instead of a few lambs, already weaned and probably close to nobody in particular's heart, you have people's grandparents and parents and husbands and wives and uncles and aunts and best friends. All grieving because the vaccine doesn't protect everyone and never can.

What does protect everyone is the elimination of the pathogen from the population. Can't be done for Mannheimia. But a coronavirus can only live in human bodies, and then only for a short time. There is no current animal reservoir feeding infection into the human population in most countries (actually possibly not in any). There are no long-term healthy carriers that we know about. It takes very little effort to take the final step and get rid of it entirely, compared to the enormous effort of coming down from a huge peak of infection. Why wouldn't you?

I hear people on twitter talking as if the huge peaks of infection we've been through are the reason "we'll never get rid of it". But that's nonsense. These peaks of infection are in the past. They're history. The only thing that matters is the present level of infection and how we deal with it. Multiple countries have shown that the virus can be eliminated from a low-ish level of infection, even before vaccines were available. Again, why wouldn't we?
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Last edited by Rolfe; 18th February 2021 at 08:54 AM.
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Old 18th February 2021, 10:57 AM   #46
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
I think this is a disturbingly high percentage - 1 in 1,000 infected in just a week?? This looks as if the vaccine does not prevent infections at all (only make them far less serious).

For reference, Germany, having only like 1.6 of her population vaccinated twice, recently averaged only 0.6 new infections per thousand. And authorities think this is still way too much.

Germany doesn't have a high percentage of ultra-Orthodox Jews or similar fundamentalists.
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Old 18th February 2021, 02:00 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Germany doesn't have a high percentage of ultra-Orthodox Jews or similar fundamentalists.
Well we Czech don't have many Jews either, much less orthodox, and we manage just fine, beating Israel 4:1 in deaths at the moment. Orthodox communities are certainly problem, but don't underestimate common stupidity boosted by social media echo chambers.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 04:30 PM   #48
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I hear it more and more, wear a mask even if vaccinated. Keep the people in control and as far as I'm concerned, Lord Fauci is full of it, control that is...other stuff too.

And we are very close to herd immunity but don't let the people know as Lord Facui and crew need to continue to push their agenda.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 06:01 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
I hear it more and more, wear a mask even if vaccinated.
Vaccinated people may still acquire and spread the disease. Science aims to save US lives. You anti-vaxxers want to maximise the death toll.

CDC / Do I need to wear a mask if I have had both vaccine doses?
Itís important for everyone to continue using all the tools available to help stop this pandemic as we learn more about how COVID-19 vaccines work in real-world conditions. Experts are also looking at how many people get vaccinated and how the virus is spreading in communities. We also donít yet know whether getting a COVID-19 vaccine will prevent you from spreading the virus that causes COVID-19 to other people, even if you donít get sick yourself. CDC will continue to update this page as we learn more.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...cines/faq.html
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Old 22nd February 2021, 06:29 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Matthew Ellard View Post
Vaccinated people may still acquire and spread the disease. Science aims to save US lives. You anti-vaxxers want to maximise the death toll.

CDC / Do I need to wear a mask if I have had both vaccine doses?
Itís important for everyone to continue using all the tools available to help stop this pandemic as we learn more about how COVID-19 vaccines work in real-world conditions. Experts are also looking at how many people get vaccinated and how the virus is spreading in communities. We also donít yet know whether getting a COVID-19 vaccine will prevent you from spreading the virus that causes COVID-19 to other people, even if you donít get sick yourself. CDC will continue to update this page as we learn more.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...cines/faq.html
The problem with a statement like that is that it falsely addresses the question as a binary. Either it does or doesn't prevent spreading. What's more likely is that it reduces spread from the vaccinated population. I'd guess by about 85-95% but we don't yet know. In any case it's not relevant once we reach herd immunity through vaccination and previous infection. Once Rt goes below 1 with no NPIs and cases drop to non-significant numbers it won't matter.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 06:51 PM   #51
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Once community transmission is no longer happening it won't matter. If R goes nicely below one once everyone is vaccinated then there's a decent chance that will eventually happen, but it won't happen at once and in certain areas it may take a while - vaccine uptake won't be uniform.

Watch the stats for community transmission in your area. (I was blithely telling people it looked as if there was none in our area this month, then got back home and checked and the update on the web page showed a new cluster emerging three days ago. Damn. Vaccinate more people and contact trace the hell out of that cluster.)
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Old 23rd February 2021, 02:27 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
And we are very close to herd immunity but don't let the people know as Lord Facui and crew need to continue to push their agenda.
Please provide evidence from immunology experts that we are very close to herd immunity.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 03:41 PM   #53
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For those interested, here's a database of Covid-19 misinformation. It's not curated so check out anything that looks out of whack.

https://www.poynter.org/ifcn-covid-19-misinformation/
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Old 23rd February 2021, 04:50 PM   #54
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Considering the definition of herd immunity seems to vary with political persuasion, who knows?
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Old 23rd February 2021, 08:29 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Considering the definition of herd immunity seems to vary with political persuasion, who knows?
What I find most amusing are the folks that claim Covid-19 doesn't exist and also claim we have or are near herd immunity.
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Old 24th February 2021, 05:37 PM   #56
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The MD I hear on the radio daily, says if one gets the vaccine, no need to keep the mask going, it's all political control from you know who. Unles the "new high tech" vaccine is just plain useless.

Last edited by Caroline13; 24th February 2021 at 05:38 PM.
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Old 24th February 2021, 05:41 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
The MD I hear on the radio daily, says if one gets the vaccine, no need to keep the mask going, it's all political control from you know who. Unles the "new high tech" vaccine is just plain useless.
Cool story bro
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Old 24th February 2021, 07:49 PM   #58
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I heard it again tonight on my conservative radio station, we are near herd immunity and the reasons being:

Millions of vaccines administered already.

Millions may have had covid 19 and never even knew as the cases were mild.

Millions had covid 19 and were very sick, got better or didn't get better.

Getting the covid 19 test is hardly happening, people are almost being paid to get it.



I don't have a data right now and don't know if there is one that herd immunity is imminent. But I sure hear about it from various sources I hear...not on TV as I don't watch TV.

When did the first comments on Covid19 come out, late 2019 or so. I never had the test, never got sick, don't know if I ever had the virus, and didn't go overboard freaking out with mask and distance and washing hands all day.
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Old 24th February 2021, 10:19 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
Millions had covid 19 and were very sick, got better or didn't get better.
You mean 500,000 of your fellow citizens died of Covid-19.

Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
I don't have a data right now
So you haven't got a clue what the herd immunity population percentage from immunisation should be........but refuse to take the Covid-19 vaccine to help reach that population percentage and save people's lives?

World Health Organisation / Herd Immunity / Coronavirus
" The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated."

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-de...e%20vaccinated.
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Old 25th February 2021, 01:16 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
I heard it again tonight on my conservative radio station, we are near herd immunity [Ö]
Your conservative radio station seems to know next to nothing about what herd immunity is, and the estimate is based free fantasy.

This should make you consider if you should continue using it as a source for facts.
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Old 25th February 2021, 02:35 AM   #61
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Regarding the level of immunity required for herd immunity, the calculation is:

Herd immunity % = 1 - (1/R0)

Covid 19 has an R0 of around 3 so 67% of the population need to be immune before herd immunity is achieved.

Given that less than 100% of people who are vaccinated get immunity then more than 67% of people would need to be vaccinated and/or get immunity by being infected before herd immunity is achieved.

Immunity may not be permanent, or even particularly long lasting so the vaccination programme may have to continue on a long term basis to maintain immunity among the vaccinated population.
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Old 25th February 2021, 07:14 AM   #62
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But even if you donít know the actual figures for achieving herd immunity, the obvious signs of herd immunity are missing: there should be no ongoing infections. But people are infected, hospitalized, and dying all the time, so the conclusion is that there is no herd immunity, no matter what.
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Old 25th February 2021, 07:21 AM   #63
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While I agree that sustaining an R value of less than one should lead to herd immunity, it isn't herd immunity in and of itself. Herd immunity is when community transmission is no longer occurring at all, due to any infected person in that community being unable to "find" another susceptible person. That's not the situation as soon as R gets under one.

A bit of a helping hand on the way might be a good idea, to shorten the time taken to get there, for everybody's sake.
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Old 25th February 2021, 10:34 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
I hear it more and more, wear a mask even if vaccinated. Keep the people in control and as far as I'm concerned, Lord Fauci is full of it, control that is...other stuff too.

And we are very close to herd immunity but don't let the people know as Lord Facui and crew need to continue to push their agenda.
Straight from the underpants gnome playbook...

1. Control people with masks
2.
3. Profit
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Old 25th February 2021, 11:06 AM   #65
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It looks to me as if the main objection to wearing a mask is that conservatives hate the idea of not being free to do the opposite of whatever liberals think it is a good idea.
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Old 25th February 2021, 11:20 AM   #66
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That seems to be about it.
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Old 25th February 2021, 11:26 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
It looks to me as if the main objection to wearing a mask is that conservatives hate the idea of not being free to do the opposite of whatever liberals think it is a good idea.
There is nothing liberal about wearing masks. Conservatives hate the idea because ANYNODY wants them to change their behavior, even if it is simply reality. That's somewhat of a definition of conservatism, right ?

Well, as we are getting toward times, where vaccines are available to anyone who wants them, it will become fair Darwinian contest.
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