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Old 21st February 2021, 01:26 PM   #1001
RecoveringYuppy
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
The biolab has had breaches of containment before.
Could you provide a citation for that?
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Old 21st February 2021, 01:30 PM   #1002
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Could you provide a citation for that?
Please see post 994 by Skeptic Ginger.
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Old 21st February 2021, 01:40 PM   #1003
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I took pains to note that there is no evidence at all. You may as well be a monkey flinging poo as try to use Occam's Razor when there's not a shred of facts to support anything beyond "Do not know".
Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another?

It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not?

...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located.

Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit.
Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country.

You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts!
You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.

Last edited by Sherkeu; 21st February 2021 at 01:44 PM.
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Old 21st February 2021, 01:57 PM   #1004
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another?

It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not?

...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located.

Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit.
Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country.

You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts!
You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.
Your scope is a sample size of 1.

If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along.

So, let's expand scope.

Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan?

Hmmm.
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Old 21st February 2021, 02:01 PM   #1005
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Your scope is a sample size of 1.

If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along.

So, let's expand scope.

Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan?

Hmmm.
Let's rephrase this as the amount of SARS outbreaks that came from somewhere totally unexpected for that region and super far from any known source. Now play.

Most viruses that have a big effect on humanity come from China. That has been true for ages. Bubonic Plague is from China too. Wuhan area. But not bats for that one!

Last edited by Sherkeu; 21st February 2021 at 02:06 PM.
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Old 21st February 2021, 02:10 PM   #1006
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
No evidence?

The virus was first noted in Wuhan.

Wuhan contains a biolab close to the location of the wet market.

The biolab has had breaches of containment before.

Whilst that may not be forensically perfect, it is more than there is for any other scenario - and even criminals can be convicted on circumstantial evidence.
From scientific point of view it's really no evidence. It just says that it is possible. On the other hand, officially the lab didn't handle any virus similar enough to SARS_CoV2.
It's political issue. If the virus leaked from the lab, China did cover it. WHO might suspect, even know stuff .. but they would need really strong evidence to go out against China. Also WHO needs China to cooperate, possibly even more than to know, where the virus came from.
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Old 21st February 2021, 03:01 PM   #1007
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Let's rephrase this...

<snip>
Let's not.

Let's consistently consider the assertion as it was made.
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Old 21st February 2021, 03:14 PM   #1008
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Let's not.

Let's consistently consider the assertion as it was made.
Sure. You give a better hypothesis. Or anyone can. Better facts are always appreciated.
I'll change my mind as to the likelihood in a nanosecond if something else seems to be a better method of transmission to Wuhan, as the first place of transmission.

Not that my changing my mind matters to you at all as is evident by the posts in here, but this is a skeptic forum after all.
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Old 21st February 2021, 03:32 PM   #1009
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Originally Posted by Lplus View Post
Please see post 994 by Skeptic Ginger.
There is no citation at all in post 994. It contains the same claim you made.
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Old 21st February 2021, 04:31 PM   #1010
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I've sent a request to transfer posts on the origin of Covid to this thread that I just started, entitled "Origins of Covid": http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=349866
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Old 21st February 2021, 04:52 PM   #1011
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Citation or more info please? I can only find leaks from a different lab.

In any event it would be hard to leak a virus that isn't present in your facility at all.
It was on the radio, I'll look for a net link.

As for it wasn't this lab, no but the technology is going to be the same. And leaks like that are not unheard of even from US level 4 labs. Small pox got out of a UK lab and infected a person on the floor below, (decades ago). Bottom line, China does not have a perfect record.

And as for COVID-19 not being in the Wuhan lab, we don't know that wasn't the case.

I was ready to buy the, no, it wasn't a lab leak, until a few days ago. Now I'm on the fence.
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Old 21st February 2021, 04:56 PM   #1012
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I took pains to note that there is no evidence [that we know for certain yet.]at all. You may as well be a monkey flinging poo as try to use Occam's Razor when there's not a shred of facts to support anything beyond "Do not know".
ftfy

You can't say there is no evidence when we really don't have access to all the evidence.
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Old 21st February 2021, 05:04 PM   #1013
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Sure. You give a better hypothesis. Or anyone can. Better facts are always appreciated.
I'll change my mind as to the likelihood in a nanosecond if something else seems to be a better method of transmission to Wuhan, as the first place of transmission.

Not that my changing my mind matters to you at all as is evident by the posts in here, but this is a skeptic forum after all.
I don't need a "better" hypothesis.

You made an assertion.

You are unable or unwilling to support it beyond making further suppositions about what might have happened.

Moving on.
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Old 21st February 2021, 05:11 PM   #1014
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Ok, but what do we know? We know that Wuhan is the first place it was found. Itís not a huge leap to figure that the lab in Wuhan is the ultimate source.

At the very least, itís a leading theory. Itís reasonable speculation on the known facts.

When you donít have a lot of facts, speculation is all weíve got.
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Old 21st February 2021, 05:19 PM   #1015
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It was on the radio, I'll look for a net link.
Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
I don't need a "better" hypothesis.
Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
When you donít have a lot of facts, speculation is all weíve got.
Correct!

And it's good to go here:

Origins of Covid
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Old 21st February 2021, 05:23 PM   #1016
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I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb

Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast

The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November.

I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers.
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Old 21st February 2021, 05:38 PM   #1017
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb

Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast

The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November.

I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers.
My understanding from this is that the mutants are taking up the largest market share of the virus very quickly and that if lockdown is eased the numbers will shoot up given how fast-spreading it is...

Quote:
Itís like a whole new pandemic has begun with the mutants. Things had been looking pretty good in Germany: The incidence rate was falling and continues to fall, and the measures seem to be working. But now, still invisible in the mountain of case numbers, the highly contagious mutants are spreading, most notably B.1.1.7, the virus variant that overran the United Kingdom in a matter orfweeks and led Portugal to have the highest incidence levels in the world. It will inevitably dominate infection trends in Germany, as well. The question is no longer whether the dangerous mutants will run rampant, only when.

This puts politicians in a bind. They are being forced to position themselves somewhere between two extremes, with one just as nightmarish as the other. On the one hand, you have the eternal lockdown, from which it is only ever possible to briefly emerge. On the other, by loosening up the measures, you risk giving the mutants free rein, which could push the case numbers in this country into the tens of thousands every day with many fatalities, including younger victims, people with long-term symptoms and constant series of new virus mutants.

Because this is also clear: High infection rates and increased numbers of people available for the virus to attack mean the virus can multiply freely. And with each replication, the likelihood increases of new mutations emerging. In most cases, more harmless, but also some more dangerous ones or even variations that are resistant to vaccines.
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Old 21st February 2021, 06:09 PM   #1018
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Originally Posted by xjx388 View Post
Ok, but what do we know? We know that Wuhan is the first place it was found. Itís not a huge leap to figure that the lab in Wuhan is the ultimate source.

At the very least, itís a leading theory. Itís reasonable speculation on the known facts.

When you donít have a lot of facts, speculation is all weíve got.
I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.

In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now.
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Old 21st February 2021, 06:12 PM   #1019
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.

In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now.

Well, yeah. In the end, it doesnít really matter, as Linkin Park so presciently informed us.
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Old 21st February 2021, 07:07 PM   #1020
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.

In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now.
And yet the wet market thought to have been the source of the first case, wasn't. It's thought a super-spreader event happened in that market since earlier cases have been found.

I appreciate that TA started a new thread on the origin of the pandemic as I think it deserves serious consideration and it might not be easy to address it here. Here's a link to my post in that thread about the people in the lab having an illness around Aug 2019.
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Old 21st February 2021, 07:14 PM   #1021
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another?

It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not?

...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located.

Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit.
Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country.

You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts!
You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.
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Old 21st February 2021, 08:23 PM   #1022
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I think we might have to re-consider the "Covid came from outer space" idea, because even with the new cluster contained in Auckland (and all restrictions lifted) the health ministry has no idea how the infection started.

No intermediate cases have been found and genomic testing shows no relationship to any virus identified here since December, which can't be where it came from.

Yet again, we're left with an unknown fomite transmission.
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Old 21st February 2021, 09:18 PM   #1023
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Your scope is a sample size of 1.

If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along.

So, let's expand scope.

Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan?

Hmmm.
Your scope is too narrow. How many have occurred in other level 4 biolabs? More than a few. How many occurred in virology labs in China? 3-4. Why is the Wuhan lab immune from leaks unless proven otherwise.


Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.....
It's important to know where the virus came from for multiple reasons having to do with future management of pandemics.

And by American standards (Trump's aberrancy not withstanding) people responsible should come clean and at least take steps to prevent another leak.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 07:13 AM   #1024
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Effectiveness of vaccines in Scotland

Quote:
The first results of the UK vaccination programme suggests it is having a "spectacular" impact on preventing serious illness.

Research led by Public Health Scotland found at four weeks after the first dose, hospital admissions were reduced by 85% and 94% for the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs respectively.

It is the first sign of the real world impact of vaccination in the UK.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600

Not sure is the renewed lockdown after Christmas might have helped or not.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 09:24 AM   #1025
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I think this was a controlled study, which would have taken lockdown into account. Being in Scotland, and having been stuck with the AZ vaccine ten days ago, I welcome this news.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 09:51 AM   #1026
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Interesting piece here on genetic differences and Covid: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...uss-weak-spots

I see that it also included a fairly large study suggesting blood type does have an effect on the disease: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4511
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Old 22nd February 2021, 10:07 AM   #1027
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I think this was a controlled study, which would have taken lockdown into account. Being in Scotland, and having been stuck with the AZ vaccine ten days ago, I welcome this news.
Also, they are seeing differences in the age groups which have been vaccinated. If it was lockdown related, they'd have had to be behaving differently from other groups (and differently from how they were before, since it's a change that's being seen).
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Old 22nd February 2021, 12:09 PM   #1028
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Interesting piece here on genetic differences and Covid: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...uss-weak-spots

I see that it also included a fairly large study suggesting blood type does have an effect on the disease: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4511
Quote:
Conclusion:
The O and Rh− blood groups may be associated with a slightly lower risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 illness.
Interesting it doesn't conclude A is the worst.

My son and I both have A negative blood. Hopefully that equals a wash.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 03:27 PM   #1029
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Uh oh. Don't let this get or some will be lining up to get Covid-19!

A survey of mild to moderate recovered patients over 6 months shows this common side effect:

"...more than half of participants (53%) complained of a non-CDC symptom: loss of appetite."

https://www.jpost.com/health-science...s-study-659657

On the serious side, this piece suggests the consequences of Covid-19 will be with us a lot longer than just burying the dead. I'd like to see some published stats on this.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 03:40 PM   #1030
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
A survey of mild to moderate recovered patients over 6 months shows this common side effect:

"...more than half of participants (53%) complained of a non-CDC symptom: loss of appetite."
Very dodgy study - only 103 participants and:

Quote:
The study did have several limitations, the report said, including that the data-collection method used, calling patients at various intervals, could have caused recall bias. In addition, patients were recruited via social networks and word of mouth; therefore, they constituted a largely younger cohort with higher incomes and levels of education.


Originally Posted by marting View Post
On the serious side, this piece suggests the consequences of Covid-19 will be with us a lot longer than just burying the dead. I'd like to see some published stats on this.
Data's pretty limited, like lots of areas of concern, but it's definitely a problem. Here's one small study: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/91270
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Old 22nd February 2021, 05:41 PM   #1031
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And yet again going back to fomite transmission - we have a new case today that is almost certainly another example.

Same school, but different class, with no interaction and no closer than about 5m at any stage. A girl has tested positive, while none of the kids from the class with the index case have caught it.

That makes at least half a dozen cases that the only reasonable explanation is fomites, out of maybe 25 cases.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 05:56 PM   #1032
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One of the precautions I started taking when it was reported that one of the NZ outbreaks was a fomite transmission is that to the extent that it is possible, I try to touch with my hands only the things that only I touch. I don't hold the handrail on the escalator. I push the door open with my shoulder. I poke elevator buttons with a pen that I keep for only that purpose.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 06:54 PM   #1033
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I'm very careful not to touch my face at all when I'm out. If I'm shopping I'll wear latex gloves then discard them when I leave the shop. It's not so hard not to touch your face when you're wearing an FFP3 mask and glasses anyway.

When I get in I take the mask off carefully and lay it on top of the radiator in the vestibule. I put away my outdoor clothes then wash my hands very thoroughly. Then after that I wash my face too for good measure. And I don't touch the mask or the clothes I've been wearing for about three days.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 08:04 PM   #1034
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I just wish people in general would wash their ******* hands.

I can't even imagine why they don't. I doubt they'd eat food directly off a door handle, a toilet seat or a shopping trolley, but that's exactly what they're doing every time they don't wash their damned hands.
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Old 22nd February 2021, 08:10 PM   #1035
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I just wish people in general would wash their ******* hands.

I can't even imagine why they don't. I doubt they'd eat food directly off a door handle, a toilet seat or a shopping trolley, but that's exactly what they're doing every time they don't wash their damned hands.
And when they do it's perfunctory and totally inadequate. Heck, even in the Beforetimes I used an abbreviated version of the surgeon's scrub. Hand washing is one area in which I didn't have to change my behaviour much.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 01:35 AM   #1036
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NZ looking highly likely to re-introduce restrictions in the next couple of days* - another family contact has tested positive after working all weekend at K Mart, with a couple of thousand people through the store now considered potential cases.

With three major events coming up this weekend, the potential for a major outbreak are pretty high.

*Big test for government resolve - they've indicated they don't want to close down, but as the virus is the UK variant, not stopping superspreader events could be disastrous.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 09:20 AM   #1037
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Effect of a Single High Dose of Vitamin D3 on Hospital Length of Stay in Patients With Moderate to Severe COVID-19, A Randomized Clinical Trial

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2776738

Large dose of Vit. D for hospitalized (Moderate/Severe disease) Covd-19 patients shows no benefit in double blind RCT.

My comments.

Since D3 takes a while to metabolize into active form I wouldn't expect much impact early in the hospitalization. But this is a well done study and indicates D3 is not useful for patients already hospitalized. Whether giving the active form would have helped, especially at the time of testing positive before hospitalization is a more germane question. However, it's really hard to test that with a gold standard (Rnd DblBlind CT) for fairly obvious reasons.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 11:48 AM   #1038
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb

Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast

The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November.

I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers.
The downward trend in infections actually stopped - the 7-day moving average hit a low on Feb 14 at 7,171 new infections per day, and since then has rebounded to over 7,500. This might be an effect of the more infectious mutants becoming a higher percentage of all cases.

Germany's per-100,000 rates have been somewhat better than the EU mean, and still are. It has a markedly higher ration of new deaths:cases, which I have no explanation for - either us undercounting cases, or perhaps a different population (older? more obese?) that's getting sick.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 12:27 PM   #1039
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
The downward trend in infections actually stopped - the 7-day moving average hit a low on Feb 14 at 7,171 new infections per day, and since then has rebounded to over 7,500. This might be an effect of the more infectious mutants becoming a higher percentage of all cases.
3% increase doesn't seem a big deal, but I haven't been keeping up with their movements on restrictions, so I guess it could be.

I do agree that relaxing things now would be a very bad idea, as UK found out.

Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Germany's per-100,000 rates have been somewhat better than the EU mean, and still are. It has a markedly higher ration of new deaths:cases, which I have no explanation for - either us undercounting cases, or perhaps a different population (older? more obese?) that's getting sick.
I'd bet on under-counting cases - treatment standards are pretty high there, I gather. Or, it could be other countries under-counting deaths.

With a high standard of treatment in Germany, I'd be surprised if they had a death rate higher than anyone else.
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Old 23rd February 2021, 12:36 PM   #1040
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Since D3 takes a while to metabolize into active form I wouldn't expect much impact early in the hospitalization. But this is a well done study and indicates D3 is not useful for patients already hospitalized. Whether giving the active form would have helped, especially at the time of testing positive before hospitalization is a more germane question.
So many contradictory studies...

Originally Posted by marting View Post
However, it's really hard to test that with a gold standard (Rnd DblBlind CT) for fairly obvious reasons.
There's the problem - you can't do that kind of trial when people could potentially die as a result.

The conundrum continues.
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