[Continuation] The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 3 - Page 26

RecoveringYuppy · 21st February 2021, 01:26 PM

Originally Posted by Lplus

The biolab has had breaches of containment before.

Could you provide a citation for that?

Lplus · 21st February 2021, 01:30 PM

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy

Could you provide a citation for that?

Please see post 994 by Skeptic Ginger.

Sherkeu · 21st February 2021, 01:40 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I took pains to note that there is no evidence at all. You may as well be a monkey flinging poo as try to use Occam's Razor when there's not a shred of facts to support anything beyond "Do not know".

Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another?

It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not?

...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located.

Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit.
Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country.

You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts!
You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.

Delphic Oracle · 21st February 2021, 01:57 PM

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another?

It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not?

...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located.

Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit.
Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country.

You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts!
You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.

Your scope is a sample size of 1.

If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along.

So, let's expand scope.

Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan?

Hmmm.

Sherkeu · 21st February 2021, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

Your scope is a sample size of 1.

If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along.

So, let's expand scope.

Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan?

Hmmm.

Let's rephrase this as the amount of SARS outbreaks that came from somewhere totally unexpected for that region and super far from any known source. Now play.

Most viruses that have a big effect on humanity come from China. That has been true for ages. Bubonic Plague is from China too. Wuhan area. But not bats for that one!

Dr.Sid · 21st February 2021, 02:10 PM

Originally Posted by Lplus

No evidence?

The virus was first noted in Wuhan.

Wuhan contains a biolab close to the location of the wet market.

The biolab has had breaches of containment before.

Whilst that may not be forensically perfect, it is more than there is for any other scenario - and even criminals can be convicted on circumstantial evidence.

From scientific point of view it's really no evidence. It just says that it is possible. On the other hand, officially the lab didn't handle any virus similar enough to SARS_CoV2.
It's political issue. If the virus leaked from the lab, China did cover it. WHO might suspect, even know stuff .. but they would need really strong evidence to go out against China. Also WHO needs China to cooperate, possibly even more than to know, where the virus came from.

Delphic Oracle · 21st February 2021, 03:01 PM

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Let's rephrase this...

<snip>

Let's not.

Let's consistently consider the assertion as it was made.

Sherkeu · 21st February 2021, 03:14 PM

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

Let's not.

Let's consistently consider the assertion as it was made.

Sure. You give a better hypothesis. Or anyone can. Better facts are always appreciated.

I'll change my mind as to the likelihood in a nanosecond if something else seems to be a better method of transmission to Wuhan, as the first place of transmission.

Not that my changing my mind matters to you at all as is evident by the posts in here, but this is a skeptic forum after all.

RecoveringYuppy · 21st February 2021, 03:32 PM

Originally Posted by Lplus

Please see post 994 by Skeptic Ginger.

There is no citation at all in post 994. It contains the same claim you made.

The Atheist · 21st February 2021, 04:31 PM

I've sent a request to transfer posts on the origin of Covid to this thread that I just started, entitled "Origins of Covid": http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=349866

Skeptic Ginger · 21st February 2021, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy

Citation or more info please? I can only find leaks from a different lab.

In any event it would be hard to leak a virus that isn't present in your facility at all.

It was on the radio, I'll look for a net link.

As for it wasn't this lab, no but the technology is going to be the same. And leaks like that are not unheard of even from US level 4 labs. Small pox got out of a UK lab and infected a person on the floor below, (decades ago). Bottom line, China does not have a perfect record.

And as for COVID-19 not being in the Wuhan lab, we don't know that wasn't the case.

I was ready to buy the, no, it wasn't a lab leak, until a few days ago. Now I'm on the fence.

Skeptic Ginger · 21st February 2021, 04:56 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I took pains to note that there is no evidence [that we know for certain yet.]~~at all. You may as well be a monkey flinging poo as try to use Occam's Razor when there's not a shred of facts to support anything beyond "Do not know".~~

ftfy

You can't say there is no evidence when we really don't have access to all the evidence.

Delphic Oracle · 21st February 2021, 05:04 PM

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Sure. You give a better hypothesis. Or anyone can. Better facts are always appreciated.

I'll change my mind as to the likelihood in a nanosecond if something else seems to be a better method of transmission to Wuhan, as the first place of transmission.

Not that my changing my mind matters to you at all as is evident by the posts in here, but this is a skeptic forum after all.

I don't need a "better" hypothesis.

You made an assertion.

You are unable or unwilling to support it beyond making further suppositions about what might have happened.

Moving on.

xjx388 · 21st February 2021, 05:11 PM

Ok, but what do we know? We know that Wuhan is the first place it was found. It’s not a huge leap to figure that the lab in Wuhan is the ultimate source.

At the very least, it’s a leading theory. It’s reasonable speculation on the known facts.

When you don’t have a lot of facts, speculation is all we’ve got.

The Atheist · 21st February 2021, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

It was on the radio, I'll look for a net link.

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

I don't need a "better" hypothesis.

Originally Posted by xjx388

When you don’t have a lot of facts, speculation is all we’ve got.

Correct!

And it's good to go here:

Origins of Covid

The Atheist · 21st February 2021, 05:23 PM

I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb

Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast

The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November.

I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers.

angrysoba · 21st February 2021, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb

Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast

The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November.

I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers.

My understanding from this is that the mutants are taking up the largest market share of the virus very quickly and that if lockdown is eased the numbers will shoot up given how fast-spreading it is...

Quote:

It’s like a whole new pandemic has begun with the mutants. Things had been looking pretty good in Germany: The incidence rate was falling and continues to fall, and the measures seem to be working. But now, still invisible in the mountain of case numbers, the highly contagious mutants are spreading, most notably B.1.1.7, the virus variant that overran the United Kingdom in a matter orfweeks and led Portugal to have the highest incidence levels in the world. It will inevitably dominate infection trends in Germany, as well. The question is no longer whether the dangerous mutants will run rampant, only when.

This puts politicians in a bind. They are being forced to position themselves somewhere between two extremes, with one just as nightmarish as the other. On the one hand, you have the eternal lockdown, from which it is only ever possible to briefly emerge. On the other, by loosening up the measures, you risk giving the mutants free rein, which could push the case numbers in this country into the tens of thousands every day with many fatalities, including younger victims, people with long-term symptoms and constant series of new virus mutants.

Because this is also clear: High infection rates and increased numbers of people available for the virus to attack mean the virus can multiply freely. And with each replication, the likelihood increases of new mutations emerging. In most cases, more harmless, but also some more dangerous ones or even variations that are resistant to vaccines.

Delphic Oracle · 21st February 2021, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by xjx388

Ok, but what do we know? We know that Wuhan is the first place it was found. It’s not a huge leap to figure that the lab in Wuhan is the ultimate source.

At the very least, it’s a leading theory. It’s reasonable speculation on the known facts.

When you don’t have a lot of facts, speculation is all we’ve got.

I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.

In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now.

xjx388 · 21st February 2021, 06:12 PM

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.

In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now.

Well, yeah. In the end, it doesn’t really matter, as Linkin Park so presciently informed us.

Skeptic Ginger · 21st February 2021, 07:07 PM

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.

In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now.

And yet the wet market thought to have been the source of the first case, wasn't. It's thought a super-spreader event happened in that market since earlier cases have been found.

I appreciate that TA started a new thread on the origin of the pandemic as I think it deserves serious consideration and it might not be easy to address it here. Here's a link to my post in that thread about the people in the lab having an illness around Aug 2019.

Skeptic Ginger · 21st February 2021, 07:14 PM

Originally Posted by Sherkeu

Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another?

It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not?

...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located.

Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit.
Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country.

You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts!
You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.

The Atheist · 21st February 2021, 08:23 PM

I think we might have to re-consider the "Covid came from outer space" idea, because even with the new cluster contained in Auckland (and all restrictions lifted) the health ministry has no idea how the infection started.

No intermediate cases have been found and genomic testing shows no relationship to any virus identified here since December, which can't be where it came from.

Yet again, we're left with an unknown fomite transmission.

Skeptic Ginger · 21st February 2021, 09:18 PM

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

Your scope is a sample size of 1.

If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along.

So, let's expand scope.

Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan?

Hmmm.

Your scope is too narrow. How many have occurred in other level 4 biolabs? More than a few. How many occurred in virology labs in China? 3-4. Why is the Wuhan lab immune from leaks unless proven otherwise.

Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle

I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak.

The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue.....

It's important to know where the virus came from for multiple reasons having to do with future management of pandemics.

And by American standards (Trump's aberrancy not withstanding) people responsible should come clean and at least take steps to prevent another leak.

Lplus · 22nd February 2021, 07:13 AM

Effectiveness of vaccines in Scotland

Quote:

The first results of the UK vaccination programme suggests it is having a "spectacular" impact on preventing serious illness.

Research led by Public Health Scotland found at four weeks after the first dose, hospital admissions were reduced by 85% and 94% for the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs respectively.

It is the first sign of the real world impact of vaccination in the UK.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600

Not sure is the renewed lockdown after Christmas might have helped or not.

Rolfe · 22nd February 2021, 09:24 AM

I think this was a controlled study, which would have taken lockdown into account. Being in Scotland, and having been stuck with the AZ vaccine ten days ago, I welcome this news.

The Atheist · 22nd February 2021, 09:51 AM

Interesting piece here on genetic differences and Covid: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...uss-weak-spots

I see that it also included a fairly large study suggesting blood type does have an effect on the disease: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4511

zooterkin · 22nd February 2021, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by Rolfe

I think this was a controlled study, which would have taken lockdown into account. Being in Scotland, and having been stuck with the AZ vaccine ten days ago, I welcome this news.

Also, they are seeing differences in the age groups which have been vaccinated. If it was lockdown related, they'd have had to be behaving differently from other groups (and differently from how they were before, since it's a change that's being seen).

Skeptic Ginger · 22nd February 2021, 12:09 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Interesting piece here on genetic differences and Covid: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...uss-weak-spots

I see that it also included a fairly large study suggesting blood type does have an effect on the disease: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4511

Quote:

Conclusion:
The O and Rh− blood groups may be associated with a slightly lower risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 illness.

Interesting it doesn't conclude A is the worst.

My son and I both have A negative blood. Hopefully that equals a wash.

marting · 22nd February 2021, 03:27 PM

Uh oh. Don't let this get or some will be lining up to get Covid-19!

A survey of mild to moderate recovered patients over 6 months shows this common side effect:

"...more than half of participants (53%) complained of a non-CDC symptom: loss of appetite."

https://www.jpost.com/health-science...s-study-659657

On the serious side, this piece suggests the consequences of Covid-19 will be with us a lot longer than just burying the dead. I'd like to see some published stats on this.

The Atheist · 22nd February 2021, 03:40 PM

Originally Posted by marting

A survey of mild to moderate recovered patients over 6 months shows this common side effect:

"...more than half of participants (53%) complained of a non-CDC symptom: loss of appetite."

Very dodgy study - only 103 participants and:

Quote:

The study did have several limitations, the report said, including that the data-collection method used, calling patients at various intervals, could have caused recall bias. In addition, patients were recruited via social networks and word of mouth; therefore, they constituted a largely younger cohort with higher incomes and levels of education.

Originally Posted by marting

On the serious side, this piece suggests the consequences of Covid-19 will be with us a lot longer than just burying the dead. I'd like to see some published stats on this.

Data's pretty limited, like lots of areas of concern, but it's definitely a problem. Here's one small study: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/91270

The Atheist · 22nd February 2021, 05:41 PM

And yet again going back to fomite transmission - we have a new case today that is almost certainly another example.

Same school, but different class, with no interaction and no closer than about 5m at any stage. A girl has tested positive, while none of the kids from the class with the index case have caught it.

That makes at least half a dozen cases that the only reasonable explanation is fomites, out of maybe 25 cases.

arthwollipot · 22nd February 2021, 05:56 PM

One of the precautions I started taking when it was reported that one of the NZ outbreaks was a fomite transmission is that to the extent that it is possible, I try to touch with my hands only the things that only I touch. I don't hold the handrail on the escalator. I push the door open with my shoulder. I poke elevator buttons with a pen that I keep for only that purpose.

Rolfe · 22nd February 2021, 06:54 PM

I'm very careful not to touch my face at all when I'm out. If I'm shopping I'll wear latex gloves then discard them when I leave the shop. It's not so hard not to touch your face when you're wearing an FFP3 mask and glasses anyway.

When I get in I take the mask off carefully and lay it on top of the radiator in the vestibule. I put away my outdoor clothes then wash my hands very thoroughly. Then after that I wash my face too for good measure. And I don't touch the mask or the clothes I've been wearing for about three days.

The Atheist · 22nd February 2021, 08:04 PM

I just wish people in general would wash their ******* hands.

I can't even imagine why they don't. I doubt they'd eat food directly off a door handle, a toilet seat or a shopping trolley, but that's exactly what they're doing every time they don't wash their damned hands.

arthwollipot · 22nd February 2021, 08:10 PM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I just wish people in general would wash their ******* hands.

I can't even imagine why they don't. I doubt they'd eat food directly off a door handle, a toilet seat or a shopping trolley, but that's exactly what they're doing every time they don't wash their damned hands.

And when they do it's perfunctory and totally inadequate. Heck, even in the Beforetimes I used an abbreviated version of the surgeon's scrub. Hand washing is one area in which I didn't have to change my behaviour much.

The Atheist · 23rd February 2021, 01:35 AM

NZ looking highly likely to re-introduce restrictions in the next couple of days* - another family contact has tested positive after working all weekend at K Mart, with a couple of thousand people through the store now considered potential cases.

With three major events coming up this weekend, the potential for a major outbreak are pretty high.

*Big test for government resolve - they've indicated they don't want to close down, but as the virus is the UK variant, not stopping superspreader events could be disastrous.

marting · 23rd February 2021, 09:20 AM

Effect of a Single High Dose of Vitamin D3 on Hospital Length of Stay in Patients With Moderate to Severe COVID-19, A Randomized Clinical Trial

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2776738

Large dose of Vit. D for hospitalized (Moderate/Severe disease) Covd-19 patients shows no benefit in double blind RCT.

My comments.

Since D3 takes a while to metabolize into active form I wouldn't expect much impact early in the hospitalization. But this is a well done study and indicates D3 is not useful for patients already hospitalized. Whether giving the active form would have helped, especially at the time of testing positive before hospitalization is a more germane question. However, it's really hard to test that with a gold standard (Rnd DblBlind CT) for fairly obvious reasons.

Oystein · 23rd February 2021, 11:48 AM

Originally Posted by The Atheist

I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb

Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast

The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November.

I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers.

The downward trend in infections actually stopped - the 7-day moving average hit a low on Feb 14 at 7,171 new infections per day, and since then has rebounded to over 7,500. This might be an effect of the more infectious mutants becoming a higher percentage of all cases.

Germany's per-100,000 rates have been somewhat better than the EU mean, and still are. It has a markedly higher ration of new deaths:cases, which I have no explanation for - either us undercounting cases, or perhaps a different population (older? more obese?) that's getting sick.

The Atheist · 23rd February 2021, 12:27 PM

Originally Posted by Oystein

The downward trend in infections actually stopped - the 7-day moving average hit a low on Feb 14 at 7,171 new infections per day, and since then has rebounded to over 7,500. This might be an effect of the more infectious mutants becoming a higher percentage of all cases.

3% increase doesn't seem a big deal, but I haven't been keeping up with their movements on restrictions, so I guess it could be.

I do agree that relaxing things now would be a very bad idea, as UK found out.

Originally Posted by Oystein

Germany's per-100,000 rates have been somewhat better than the EU mean, and still are. It has a markedly higher ration of new deaths:cases, which I have no explanation for - either us undercounting cases, or perhaps a different population (older? more obese?) that's getting sick.

I'd bet on under-counting cases - treatment standards are pretty high there, I gather. Or, it could be other countries under-counting deaths.

With a high standard of treatment in Germany, I'd be surprised if they had a death rate higher than anyone else.

The Atheist · 23rd February 2021, 12:36 PM

Originally Posted by marting

Since D3 takes a while to metabolize into active form I wouldn't expect much impact early in the hospitalization. But this is a well done study and indicates D3 is not useful for patients already hospitalized. Whether giving the active form would have helped, especially at the time of testing positive before hospitalization is a more germane question.

So many contradictory studies...

Originally Posted by marting

However, it's really hard to test that with a gold standard (Rnd DblBlind CT) for fairly obvious reasons.

There's the problem - you can't do that kind of trial when people could potentially die as a result.

The conundrum continues.

21st February 2021, 01:30 PM	#1002
Lplus Muse Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 572	Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy Could you provide a citation for that? Please see post 994 by Skeptic Ginger.
Lplus Muse Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 572	__________________ Those who are most fanatical in their condemnation of others are often mortally afraid that, in their deepest subconcious, they agree with those who they are condemning. Communism actively works against the fundamental urge of the human animal to survive and prosper, even at the expense of others, whilst Nazism relies on that urge.

21st February 2021, 01:40 PM	#1003
Sherkeu Master Poster Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Disneyland Posts: 2,381	Originally Posted by The Atheist I took pains to note that there is no evidence at all. You may as well be a monkey flinging poo as try to use Occam's Razor when there's not a shred of facts to support anything beyond "Do not know". Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another? It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not? ...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located. Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit. Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country. You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts! You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.
	Last edited by Sherkeu; 21st February 2021 at 01:44 PM.

21st February 2021, 02:01 PM	#1005
Sherkeu Master Poster Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Disneyland Posts: 2,381	Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle Your scope is a sample size of 1. If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along. So, let's expand scope. Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan? Hmmm. Let's rephrase this as the amount of SARS outbreaks that came from somewhere totally unexpected for that region and super far from any known source. Now play. Most viruses that have a big effect on humanity come from China. That has been true for ages. Bubonic Plague is from China too. Wuhan area. But not bats for that one!
	Last edited by Sherkeu; 21st February 2021 at 02:06 PM.

21st February 2021, 04:31 PM	#1010
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	I've sent a request to transfer posts on the origin of Covid to this thread that I just started, entitled "Origins of Covid": http://www.internationalskeptics.com...d.php?t=349866
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

21st February 2021, 05:11 PM	#1014
xjx388 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,140	Ok, but what do we know? We know that Wuhan is the first place it was found. It’s not a huge leap to figure that the lab in Wuhan is the ultimate source. At the very least, it’s a leading theory. It’s reasonable speculation on the known facts. When you don’t have a lot of facts, speculation is all we’ve got.
xjx388 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,140	__________________ Hello.

21st February 2021, 01:26 PM	#1001
RecoveringYuppy Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,727	Originally Posted by Lplus The biolab has had breaches of containment before. Could you provide a citation for that?

21st February 2021, 01:57 PM	#1004
Delphic Oracle Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 5,352	Originally Posted by Sherkeu Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another? It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not? ...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located. Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit. Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country. You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts! You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you. Your scope is a sample size of 1. If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along. So, let's expand scope. Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan? Hmmm.

21st February 2021, 02:10 PM	#1006
Dr.Sid Illuminator Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Olomouc, Czech Republic Posts: 3,171	Originally Posted by Lplus No evidence? The virus was first noted in Wuhan. Wuhan contains a biolab close to the location of the wet market. The biolab has had breaches of containment before. Whilst that may not be forensically perfect, it is more than there is for any other scenario - and even criminals can be convicted on circumstantial evidence. From scientific point of view it's really no evidence. It just says that it is possible. On the other hand, officially the lab didn't handle any virus similar enough to SARS_CoV2. It's political issue. If the virus leaked from the lab, China did cover it. WHO might suspect, even know stuff .. but they would need really strong evidence to go out against China. Also WHO needs China to cooperate, possibly even more than to know, where the virus came from.

21st February 2021, 03:01 PM	#1007
Delphic Oracle Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 5,352	Originally Posted by Sherkeu Let's rephrase this... <snip> Let's not. Let's consistently consider the assertion as it was made.

21st February 2021, 03:14 PM	#1008
Sherkeu Master Poster Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Disneyland Posts: 2,381	Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle Let's not. Let's consistently consider the assertion as it was made. Sure. You give a better hypothesis. Or anyone can. Better facts are always appreciated. I'll change my mind as to the likelihood in a nanosecond if something else seems to be a better method of transmission to Wuhan, as the first place of transmission. Not that my changing my mind matters to you at all as is evident by the posts in here, but this is a skeptic forum after all.

21st February 2021, 03:32 PM	#1009
RecoveringYuppy Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,727	Originally Posted by Lplus Please see post 994 by Skeptic Ginger. There is no citation at all in post 994. It contains the same claim you made.

21st February 2021, 04:52 PM	#1011
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,876	Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy Citation or more info please? I can only find leaks from a different lab. In any event it would be hard to leak a virus that isn't present in your facility at all. It was on the radio, I'll look for a net link. As for it wasn't this lab, no but the technology is going to be the same. And leaks like that are not unheard of even from US level 4 labs. Small pox got out of a UK lab and infected a person on the floor below, (decades ago). Bottom line, China does not have a perfect record. And as for COVID-19 not being in the Wuhan lab, we don't know that wasn't the case. I was ready to buy the, no, it wasn't a lab leak, until a few days ago. Now I'm on the fence.

21st February 2021, 04:56 PM	#1012
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,876	Originally Posted by The Atheist I took pains to note that there is no evidence [that we know for certain yet.]~~at all. You may as well be a monkey flinging poo as try to use Occam's Razor when there's not a shred of facts to support anything beyond "Do not know".~~ ftfy You can't say there is no evidence when we really don't have access to all the evidence.

21st February 2021, 05:04 PM	#1013
Delphic Oracle Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 5,352	Originally Posted by Sherkeu Sure. You give a better hypothesis. Or anyone can. Better facts are always appreciated. I'll change my mind as to the likelihood in a nanosecond if something else seems to be a better method of transmission to Wuhan, as the first place of transmission. Not that my changing my mind matters to you at all as is evident by the posts in here, but this is a skeptic forum after all. I don't need a "better" hypothesis. You made an assertion. You are unable or unwilling to support it beyond making further suppositions about what might have happened. Moving on.

21st February 2021, 05:19 PM	#1015
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger It was on the radio, I'll look for a net link. Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle I don't need a "better" hypothesis. Originally Posted by xjx388 When you don’t have a lot of facts, speculation is all we’ve got. Correct! And it's good to go here: Origins of Covid
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

21st February 2021, 05:23 PM	#1016
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November. I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

21st February 2021, 05:38 PM	#1017
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 29,353	Originally Posted by The Atheist I read an extremely down-beat piece on Spiegel this morning: https://www.spiegel.de/international...0-dd7cd88323fb Their headline is: Coronavirus Mutants Are Spreading Fast The piece is only a couple of days old, but I'm not seeing it - Germany's numbers have fallen to an average of 7000 new cases a day for the past couple of weeks, while it had peaked at 25,000 a day in November. I'm not in Germany to contradict Spiegel, and I'm struggling to understand why they think it's an issue now. I'll keep an eye on the numbers. My understanding from this is that the mutants are taking up the largest market share of the virus very quickly and that if lockdown is eased the numbers will shoot up given how fast-spreading it is... Quote: It’s like a whole new pandemic has begun with the mutants. Things had been looking pretty good in Germany: The incidence rate was falling and continues to fall, and the measures seem to be working. But now, still invisible in the mountain of case numbers, the highly contagious mutants are spreading, most notably B.1.1.7, the virus variant that overran the United Kingdom in a matter orfweeks and led Portugal to have the highest incidence levels in the world. It will inevitably dominate infection trends in Germany, as well. The question is no longer whether the dangerous mutants will run rampant, only when. This puts politicians in a bind. They are being forced to position themselves somewhere between two extremes, with one just as nightmarish as the other. On the one hand, you have the eternal lockdown, from which it is only ever possible to briefly emerge. On the other, by loosening up the measures, you risk giving the mutants free rein, which could push the case numbers in this country into the tens of thousands every day with many fatalities, including younger victims, people with long-term symptoms and constant series of new virus mutants. Because this is also clear: High infection rates and increased numbers of people available for the virus to attack mean the virus can multiply freely. And with each replication, the likelihood increases of new mutations emerging. In most cases, more harmless, but also some more dangerous ones or even variations that are resistant to vaccines.
	__________________ "The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

21st February 2021, 06:09 PM	#1018
Delphic Oracle Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 5,352	Originally Posted by xjx388 Ok, but what do we know? We know that Wuhan is the first place it was found. It’s not a huge leap to figure that the lab in Wuhan is the ultimate source. At the very least, it’s a leading theory. It’s reasonable speculation on the known facts. When you don’t have a lot of facts, speculation is all we’ve got. I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak. The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue. In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now.

21st February 2021, 06:12 PM	#1019
xjx388 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,140	Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak. The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue. In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now. Well, yeah. In the end, it doesn’t really matter, as Linkin Park so presciently informed us.
xjx388 Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,140	__________________ Hello.

21st February 2021, 07:07 PM	#1020
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,876	Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak. The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue. In any case it is a lot of ink to spill/bandwidth to waste on a fact which has very little potential significance in addressing the state of the pandemic as it stands right now. And yet the wet market thought to have been the source of the first case, wasn't. It's thought a super-spreader event happened in that market since earlier cases have been found. I appreciate that TA started a new thread on the origin of the pandemic as I think it deserves serious consideration and it might not be easy to address it here. Here's a link to my post in that thread about the people in the lab having an illness around Aug 2019.

21st February 2021, 07:14 PM	#1021
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,876	Originally Posted by Sherkeu Is deductive reasoning worthless? Can a person not see odds on one thing over another? It is not anything unusual to suggest that COVID had plentiful options to infect in multiple cities in China, hundreds of them, large and small. Could even travel outside China...why not? ...but, it just so happened to emerge in the one where the scientists who search out these SARS viruses are located. Not where the bats are, not where it is popular to eat bats, and not where anyone would keep such animals as a pet or anything. There is no reason to think Wuhan would be the place. It doesnt fit. Until you learn that a lab is there studying these types of viruses. The main one, and largest one in all of SE Asia, with scientists traveling back and forth to infected caves. But surely this is not evidence of anything at all you say!!! I mean, China said maybe it came from frozen food imported from another country. You can think that is not evidence. Zero! Poo fling!! throwing darts! You can say such a connection is ridiculous. But I bet not many skeptics would agree with you.

21st February 2021, 08:23 PM	#1022
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	I think we might have to re-consider the "Covid came from outer space" idea, because even with the new cluster contained in Auckland (and all restrictions lifted) the health ministry has no idea how the infection started. No intermediate cases have been found and genomic testing shows no relationship to any virus identified here since December, which can't be where it came from. Yet again, we're left with an unknown fomite transmission.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

21st February 2021, 09:18 PM	#1023
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,876	Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle Your scope is a sample size of 1. If 100% of a large sample of outbreaks began where the lab is, that would push me along. So, let's expand scope. Of the last x number of SARS outbreaks, how many came from Wuhan? Hmmm. Your scope is too narrow. How many have occurred in other level 4 biolabs? More than a few. How many occurred in virology labs in China? 3-4. Why is the Wuhan lab immune from leaks unless proven otherwise. Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle I again point out "lab in Wuhan + first case in Wuhan" only seems noteworthy when looking at this one viral outbreak. The wider lens doesn't rule it out, no. But given that detection often first occurs in the same kinds of places that have fancy labs (both for similar reasons), this becomes more of a statistical probability issue..... It's important to know where the virus came from for multiple reasons having to do with future management of pandemics. And by American standards (Trump's aberrancy not withstanding) people responsible should come clean and at least take steps to prevent another leak.

22nd February 2021, 07:13 AM	#1024
Lplus Muse Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 572	Effectiveness of vaccines in Scotland Quote: The first results of the UK vaccination programme suggests it is having a "spectacular" impact on preventing serious illness. Research led by Public Health Scotland found at four weeks after the first dose, hospital admissions were reduced by 85% and 94% for the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs respectively. It is the first sign of the real world impact of vaccination in the UK. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56153600 Not sure is the renewed lockdown after Christmas might have helped or not.
Lplus Muse Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 572	__________________ Those who are most fanatical in their condemnation of others are often mortally afraid that, in their deepest subconcious, they agree with those who they are condemning. Communism actively works against the fundamental urge of the human animal to survive and prosper, even at the expense of others, whilst Nazism relies on that urge.

22nd February 2021, 09:24 AM	#1025
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,930	I think this was a controlled study, which would have taken lockdown into account. Being in Scotland, and having been stuck with the AZ vaccine ten days ago, I welcome this news.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

22nd February 2021, 09:51 AM	#1026
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	Interesting piece here on genetic differences and Covid: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...uss-weak-spots I see that it also included a fairly large study suggesting blood type does have an effect on the disease: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4511
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

22nd February 2021, 10:07 AM	#1027
zooterkin Nitpicking dilettante Administrator Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Berkshire, mostly Posts: 48,397	Originally Posted by Rolfe I think this was a controlled study, which would have taken lockdown into account. Being in Scotland, and having been stuck with the AZ vaccine ten days ago, I welcome this news. Also, they are seeing differences in the age groups which have been vaccinated. If it was lockdown related, they'd have had to be behaving differently from other groups (and differently from how they were before, since it's a change that's being seen).
	__________________ The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.Bertrand Russell Zooterkin is correct Darat Nerd! Hokulele Join the JREF Folders ! Team 13232 Ezekiel 23:20

22nd February 2021, 12:09 PM	#1028
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,876	Originally Posted by The Atheist Interesting piece here on genetic differences and Covid: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...uss-weak-spots I see that it also included a fairly large study suggesting blood type does have an effect on the disease: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-4511 Quote: Conclusion: The O and Rh− blood groups may be associated with a slightly lower risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 illness. Interesting it doesn't conclude A is the worst. My son and I both have A negative blood. Hopefully that equals a wash.

22nd February 2021, 03:27 PM	#1029
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,138	Uh oh. Don't let this get or some will be lining up to get Covid-19! A survey of mild to moderate recovered patients over 6 months shows this common side effect: "...more than half of participants (53%) complained of a non-CDC symptom: loss of appetite." https://www.jpost.com/health-science...s-study-659657 On the serious side, this piece suggests the consequences of Covid-19 will be with us a lot longer than just burying the dead. I'd like to see some published stats on this.
marting Master Poster Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 2,138	__________________ Flying's easy. Walking on water, now that's cool.

22nd February 2021, 03:40 PM	#1030
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	Originally Posted by marting A survey of mild to moderate recovered patients over 6 months shows this common side effect: "...more than half of participants (53%) complained of a non-CDC symptom: loss of appetite." Very dodgy study - only 103 participants and: Quote: The study did have several limitations, the report said, including that the data-collection method used, calling patients at various intervals, could have caused recall bias. In addition, patients were recruited via social networks and word of mouth; therefore, they constituted a largely younger cohort with higher incomes and levels of education. Originally Posted by marting On the serious side, this piece suggests the consequences of Covid-19 will be with us a lot longer than just burying the dead. I'd like to see some published stats on this. Data's pretty limited, like lots of areas of concern, but it's definitely a problem. Here's one small study: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infecti.../covid19/91270
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

22nd February 2021, 05:41 PM	#1031
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	And yet again going back to fomite transmission - we have a new case today that is almost certainly another example. Same school, but different class, with no interaction and no closer than about 5m at any stage. A girl has tested positive, while none of the kids from the class with the index case have caught it. That makes at least half a dozen cases that the only reasonable explanation is fomites, out of maybe 25 cases.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

22nd February 2021, 05:56 PM	#1032
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 70,272	One of the precautions I started taking when it was reported that one of the NZ outbreaks was a fomite transmission is that to the extent that it is possible, I try to touch with my hands only the things that only I touch. I don't hold the handrail on the escalator. I push the door open with my shoulder. I poke elevator buttons with a pen that I keep for only that purpose.
	__________________ Please scream inside your heart.

22nd February 2021, 06:54 PM	#1033
Rolfe Anti-homeopathy illuminati member Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NT 150 511 Posts: 46,930	I'm very careful not to touch my face at all when I'm out. If I'm shopping I'll wear latex gloves then discard them when I leave the shop. It's not so hard not to touch your face when you're wearing an FFP3 mask and glasses anyway. When I get in I take the mask off carefully and lay it on top of the radiator in the vestibule. I put away my outdoor clothes then wash my hands very thoroughly. Then after that I wash my face too for good measure. And I don't touch the mask or the clothes I've been wearing for about three days.
	__________________ "The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

22nd February 2021, 08:04 PM	#1034
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,278	I just wish people in general would wash their ******* hands. I can't even imagine why they don't. I doubt they'd eat food directly off a door handle, a toilet seat or a shopping trolley, but that's exactly what they're doing every time they don't wash their damned hands.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

22nd February 2021, 08:10 PM	#1035
arthwollipot Observer of Phenomena Pronouns: he/him Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Ngunnawal Country Posts: 70,272	Originally Posted by The Atheist I just wish people in general would wash their ******* hands. I can't even imagine why they don't. I doubt they'd eat food directly off a door handle, a toilet seat or a shopping trolley, but that's exactly what they're doing every time they don't wash their damned hands. And when they do it's perfunctory and totally inadequate. Heck, even in the Beforetimes I used an abbreviated version of the surgeon's scrub. Hand washing is one area in which I didn't have to change my behaviour much.
	__________________ Please scream inside your heart.