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Old 13th February 2021, 06:34 PM   #1
marting
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Mask wearing if you have been vaccinated. The next question.

Thought I'd go over the issues around when and possibly if we can stop wearing masks.

It's been long stated that Covid-19 will only be suppressed by herd immunity. This is roughly the point where the percentage of people that have either recovered or are immunized reaches 60%, recently upgraded to 70-80%. 60% corresponds to a R0 of 2.5 but new variants may well have R0 of 3.5 to 4.

But there are other considerations.

We don't know whether vaccines or prior infection prevents enough disease to stop or reduce spreading from people that may get a touch but may be asymptomatic. Even if a much lower viral load being asymptomatic may increase some transmission since symptomatics are more likely to avoid others. The information needed has was not provided by the vaccine trials. It will gradually emerge but will be hard to get the data.

Likely it will require substantial reduction (100x or more) in new cases together with a full genomic characterization of most new cases which will be much more able to determine transmission links.

There are also the social issues. If half the public is vaccinated will they start feeling put upon wearing masks and if they don't wear one will it send the wrong message to others that have not yet been vaccinated? This may create more conflict among people already highly polarized. Might be interesting to see how Israel addresses this as they seem to be a few months ahead of most every other place in vaccinations.

One thing the government could do here in the USA instead of just sending out money to everyone is tie it to getting vaccinated. You get more if you have been vaccinated. The obvious problem is that currently vaccines are in short supply so this would need to wait until availability is sufficient.

So what are your thoughts?

Please post any new data/studies that address the issues as to when we can stop wearing masks and return to some degree of normality.

Here's a brief piece that touches on some of the issues, known and unknown.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/h...cine-mask.html
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Last edited by marting; 13th February 2021 at 06:36 PM.
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Old 13th February 2021, 06:45 PM   #2
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It won't be the fact one is vaccinated. We'll be able to get back to normal when the virus is knocked down and we can use contact tracing to address the remaining disease.

I don't think it's going to be infallible even then but if there is only a remaining small risk and there's no evidence of vaccine failure, I'll be comfortable taking my mask off.

And once the pandemic is knocked down in most of the world, those cases popping up will be fewer. NZ just had a fresh outbreak and Oz is having a similar bubbling up but keep in mind they are surrounded by pandemic in the rest of the world. At some point we should for the most part be down to only occasional outbreaks.

With the vaccine durability, we'll see how long protection lasts if/when vaccinated persons start getting infected.
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Old 14th February 2021, 04:17 PM   #3
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The root of the question is whether once you have had it or been vaxed, we'll assume few people can get it again. But can you spread it?

Or is out subject just a nig fomite, which has not been shown to be a vector.
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Old 14th February 2021, 04:36 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It won't be the fact one is vaccinated. We'll be able to get back to normal when the virus is knocked down and we can use contact tracing to address the remaining disease.

THIS.

I had my first dose of the vaccine on Thursday. Mask still at the ready, and I don't just mean for the next couple of weeks.

To be fair the virus is already suppressed where I live but that's just a part of the country, we need it eliminated in the cities as well.
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Old 14th February 2021, 09:46 PM   #5
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I think no matter if Covid gets totally under control, there will be mask wearing recommended, at least seasonally for the flu. Not everyone, but we could become more like some Asian countries were before Covid with a public responsibility to wear one if you are vulnerable or sick yourself or even always for certain occupations.

After this flu season, they will have data to show how the masks and distancing brought flu cases/deaths way way down as a side-effect of Covid precautions.

Does less flu cases this year mean MORE next year as so many didn't get it?.... or LESS because it its prevalence was tamped down to low levels? I'm not sure how that works.
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Old 15th February 2021, 08:27 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
I think no matter if Covid gets totally under control, there will be mask wearing recommended, at least seasonally for the flu. Not everyone, but we could become more like some Asian countries were before Covid with a public responsibility to wear one if you are vulnerable or sick yourself or even always for certain occupations.

After this flu season, they will have data to show how the masks and distancing brought flu cases/deaths way way down as a side-effect of Covid precautions.

Does less flu cases this year mean MORE next year as so many didn't get it?.... or LESS because it its prevalence was tamped down to low levels? I'm not sure how that works.
But your list of " masks and distancing" leaves out the lock downs and their proven effect.

I guess we will get data the first year past this pandemic.
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Old 15th February 2021, 08:39 AM   #7
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I think it's a definite consideration that now we know how much effect masks and distancing and handwashing can contribute to protecting us from things like flu, we're likely to see more people choosing to do that, seasonally, especially because mask-wearing has become a commonplace thing.

I used to see far eastern people wearing masks in the cities and think, if you imagine that's going to protect you from polluted air you're delusional. But as a protection from respiratory viruses it makes a lot of sense, particularly when you know there's something going around. I think I'd certainly consider wearing an FFP3 for shopping and to places of public entertainment in the winter. Not that I think a bad cold or a dose of flu is going to kill me, but I live alone and spending a week or two ill and struggling to feed myself isn't a lot of fun.

I was worried about getting actual covid for that reason too. By all accounts it could be pretty nasty even if you weren't bad enough to need hospitalisation and I really really didn't want to go through that. (Then on Friday when I was in bed unwell I thought, this is what you were worried about, but it's only going to be a day and it's a vaccine reaction - RESULT!!)
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Old 15th February 2021, 08:40 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
The root of the question is whether once you have had it or been vaxed, we'll assume few people can get it again. But can you spread it?

Or is our subject just a big fomite, which has not been shown to be a vector.
(corrected a couple typos)

The point is, does the mucous from a vaxed or survivor have enough virus picked up from a super spreader to transmit the disease? Surface fomites do not, do 'people as fomites' ?

Data might be out there in the answer to " how soon after exposure does a patient spread it ?" IF immediately without time to multiply, herd immunity will take a high percent immunized people. And I don't mean pre-clinical or mild case spreaders.
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Old 15th February 2021, 08:46 AM   #9
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Since vaccine is not 100% protection, especially with regards to new (and possibly even unknown) mutations, it seems logical that yeah, you should definitely still wear a mask. Also puts people around you at ease.
Of course, if you have troubles breathing in the mask, than no. But if you condition is so bad you have troubles breathing in the mask, you should stay home anyway.
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Old 15th February 2021, 09:43 AM   #10
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Try telling that to the woman I just had a row with in the Post Office. Wearing a mask under her nose. Oh I'm exempt, I just wear it like this so I don't get hassle.

1. Standing up and apparently walking normally? Check.
2. Well co-ordinated with no sign of neurological or muscle impairment? Check.
3. Able to talk, quite forcefully, without any sign of respiratory impairment? Check.
4. Actually wearing a mask, albeit incorrectly? Check, so we can exclude claustrophobic panic attacks or PTSD.

If she had a doctor's letter, all that proves is that there are doctors who won't stand up to their patients' sense of special snowflake entitlement.

What these special snowflakes don't seem to realise is that even if they have an official exemption, they're still as much a danger to others as people who won't wear a mask simply because they're cussed. Get someone else to go in the shop and do your business for you, don't feel entitled to put other people at risk just because you can.
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Old 15th February 2021, 10:08 AM   #11
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I'm fully booted up and will continue to mask up and observe the same distancing protocols for the safety and comfort of others till we have reason to believe the threat is largely passed, including watching the variants.
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Old 15th February 2021, 12:11 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Try telling that to the woman I just had a row with in the Post Office. Wearing a mask under her nose. Oh I'm exempt, I just wear it like this so I don't get hassle.

1. Standing up and apparently walking normally? Check.
2. Well co-ordinated with no sign of neurological or muscle impairment? Check.
3. Able to talk, quite forcefully, without any sign of respiratory impairment? Check.
4. Actually wearing a mask, albeit incorrectly? Check, so we can exclude claustrophobic panic attacks or PTSD.

If she had a doctor's letter, all that proves is that there are doctors who won't stand up to their patients' sense of special snowflake entitlement.

What these special snowflakes don't seem to realise is that even if they have an official exemption, they're still as much a danger to others as people who won't wear a mask simply because they're cussed. Get someone else to go in the shop and do your business for you, don't feel entitled to put other people at risk just because you can.
My current basal metabolic rate is 3,000 cal/day. Add some for the activity of going and doing, and some stress, and is the usual mask free-flowing enough for my oxygen needs?

I use a mask my sis the quilter and MICU nurse sewed for me. It's a bit bigger than the pattern, and I installed an internal brace to prevent it getting sucked up against my lips. Now I can function without the headaches.
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Old 15th February 2021, 12:17 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Since vaccine is not 100% protection, especially with regards to new (and possibly even unknown) mutations, it seems logical that yeah, you should definitely still wear a mask. Also puts people around you at ease.
Of course, if you have troubles breathing in the mask, than no. But if you condition is so bad you have troubles breathing in the mask, you should stay home anyway.
Did you wear a mask for flu or pneumonia?

What we are seeing nw is the initial die-of of the most susceptible to a new virus. Once everybody is exposed, even without masks and vax, the death rate will be about the same as choking in your food. Compare to my first question.

I'll ditch the mask as soon as I won't get stoned for it. But it's the sheeple that do the stoning.
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Old 15th February 2021, 01:05 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Did you wear a mask for flu or pneumonia?

What we are seeing nw is the initial die-of of the most susceptible to a new virus. Once everybody is exposed, even without masks and vax, the death rate will be about the same as choking in your food. Compare to my first question.

I'll ditch the mask as soon as I won't get stoned for it. But it's the sheeple that do the stoning.
I'll ditch the mask when number of Covid deaths becomes insignificant. Don't think it will be this year.
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Old 16th February 2021, 01:11 PM   #15
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Oh the "experts" change their minds like mothers change baby diapers...Now it's even with the vaccine, 2 masks...Boulderdash I say. Me, no vaccine and no mask unless absolutely necessary.

Get with the Vit C, D, Zinc, Quercetin and others, this is what the BODY is crying for. And dying more without these.

I will forever believe that so many deaths from this covid mess were because of deficiencies and chronic health issues. And that needs to start years ago and not with the covid.

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Old 17th February 2021, 03:43 AM   #16
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I'm not filling my body with that rubbish. Nor do intend to breathe in any virus I can possibly avoid even though I've been lucky enough to be the beneficiary of the amazing scientific achievement that is my first coronavirus vaccine.
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Old 17th February 2021, 03:45 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
Me, no vaccine and no mask unless absolutely necessary.
Guess what. It's now !
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Old 17th February 2021, 05:39 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
One thing the government could do here in the USA instead of just sending out money to everyone is tie it to getting vaccinated. You get more if you have been vaccinated. The obvious problem is that currently vaccines are in short supply so this would need to wait until availability is sufficient.
I keep seeing this idea come up and I don't like it. For starters, as you point out, not everyone has had a chance to get the vaccine yet. This would penalize people for something they have no control over. I also worry that it could backfire and make people prone to conspiracy thinking even more suspicious than they already are. Thirdly, by the time we run out of willing vaccine recipients, it might be all but over anyway. Getting vaccinated is its own reward. You (the individual) benefit from the immunity that the vaccine confers. Society also benefits, but I still think that the primary beneficiary is the vaccinated individual.

On the question of whether one should continue to wear masks even after they are fully vaccinated and the requisite time has passed, I kinda think it's not really necessary unless some new information shows that it is still needed. For example, if large numbers of vaccinated people are still getting sick. And not needing to wear a mask I can be another selling point for encouraging people to get vaccinated. However, it still does help to prevent the spread of other bugs like the common cold or flu. I think many of us who almost never used a mask in the past have gotten used to using them in the past year, so I think I will continue to use them on public transportation and crowded places for some time. But we'll see.
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Old 17th February 2021, 06:24 AM   #19
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I think the first thing we need is confirmation that vaccination prevents not just getting sick but also being able to pass on the virus. If the virus is replicating in and being expelled from the upper respiratory tracts of healthy vaccinated individuals, that could be a recipe for disaster.

To emphasise, we don't know that that's going to happen, and it's more likely than not that it won't. But since it's something that there hasn't been time to test for and address due to the rapid roll-out of the vaccine, we shouldn't be taking any chances.
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Old 17th February 2021, 07:26 AM   #20
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The rate of vaxxes and the increase, ought to be showing benefits in the next couple weeks. Prediction is that in another month the highest risk 10% will have been shot. 3-4M per day, 30,000,000 by the time I am scheduled. That ought to flatten the curve to as flat as it will ever get. Son, very soon....
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Old 17th February 2021, 08:22 AM   #21
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It takes longer than you think to show in the statistics. First you need a significant percentage of the population in question to be vaccinated. Then you need two or three weeks for the immune system to respond, even with the primary response to a first dose. Then you add the time for people to become infected, and then to become sick, and then to die, and you can be looking at six weeks or so from the needles going into the arms to the results becoming apparent.

Having said that I found this graph quite encouraging. Scotland started the vaccination campaign by going all out to vaccinate care home residents. They're virtually all done now. I think the observation that the care home deaths curve is dropping faster than other demographics is justified.

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Old 17th February 2021, 10:06 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
Oh the "experts" change their minds like mothers change baby diapers...Now it's even with the vaccine, 2 masks...Boulderdash I say. Me, no vaccine and no mask unless absolutely necessary.

Get with the Vit C, D, Zinc, Quercetin and others, this is what the BODY is crying for. And dying more without these.

I will forever believe that so many deaths from this covid mess were because of deficiencies and chronic health issues. And that needs to start years ago and not with the covid.
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Old 17th February 2021, 10:52 AM   #23
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Enforcement is too difficult if some people need to wear masks and others don't. Just wait until 65% of the population is vaccinated then lift the restriction for everyone.
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Old 17th February 2021, 10:56 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I'm not filling my body with that rubbish. Nor do intend to breathe in any virus I can possibly avoid even though I've been lucky enough to be the beneficiary of the amazing scientific achievement that is my first coronavirus vaccine.
Rubbish, talk about rubbish the dangerous vaccines, fill your body with those, and see what gives down the road in your body and life.
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Old 17th February 2021, 11:25 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
Rubbish, talk about rubbish the dangerous vaccines, fill your body with those, and see what gives down the road in your body and life.
Statements like this are utterly worthless unless backed up with .... something.

If you have a case to make, then make it. There are knowledgeable people here who can critique/rebut/support it as appropriate. But unsupported assertions will get you nowhere.
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Old 17th February 2021, 11:40 AM   #26
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Mask wearing if you have been vaccinated. The next question.

Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
Rubbish, talk about rubbish the dangerous vaccines, fill your body with those, and see what gives down the road in your body and life.

Iíve had more vaccines than most people, being 1) in the military, 2) a medic, and 3) deployed overseas several times. And at 48 still going strong so far.

Iíve had flu vaccine annually, MMR, MCG, TTD, yellow fever, Hep A, Hep B, Anthrax, smallpox, and likely a few others Iíve forgotten.

In fact, Iíve had most of those twice, because my shot records were lost at one point.

ETA: in addition to giving those vaccines to literally thousands of others in various pre-deployment preps.


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Old 17th February 2021, 12:24 PM   #27
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I've had every vaccine anyone has every offered to give me, plus Yellow Fever. I'm in excellent health at 67 and have every prospect of maintaining that as I come from a long-lived family. Goodness knows where I'd be if I self-medicated with overdoeses of vitamins and quack herbs.
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Old 17th February 2021, 12:25 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by Hellbound View Post
Iíve had more vaccines than most people, being 1) in the military, 2) a medic, and 3) deployed overseas several times. And at 48 still going strong so far.

Iíve had flu vaccine annually, MMR, MCG, TTD, yellow fever, Hep A, Hep B, Anthrax, smallpox, and likely a few others Iíve forgotten.

In fact, Iíve had most of those twice, because my shot records were lost at one point.

ETA: in addition to giving those vaccines to literally thousands of others in various pre-deployment preps.


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Well good for you and all your vaccines, maybe you will live to 100 thanks to all your vaccines, and yes the military is good at that ... and all the damage done to the world's people. I digress as I'm a Pacifist.
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Old 17th February 2021, 12:27 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by Pixel42 View Post
Statements like this are utterly worthless unless backed up with .... something.

If you have a case to make, then make it. There are knowledgeable people here who can critique/rebut/support it as appropriate. But unsupported assertions will get you nowhere.
What's your gripe, I'm not trying to go somewhere. Printing info that one can take or leave. Get your vaccines and see if the new tech vaccines keep you good.
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Old 17th February 2021, 12:55 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
What's your gripe, I'm not trying to go somewhere.
I am simply pointing out that this is a discussion forum, not a blog. If you want to discuss the effectiveness of vaccines you're in the right place. If you just want to make ignorant unsupported assertions about them, not so much.
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Old 17th February 2021, 02:31 PM   #31
Spektator
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I've had my first Covid shot and will get my second in about a week. This past year I've come to like wearing a mask. I will definitely continue to wear one after my second vaccination. I'm also considering buying a revolver and looking around for silver bullets, a fiery white horse with the speed of light, and possibly a Native American faithful companion.

I guess I've gone a little stir crazy in the past year, too.
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Old 17th February 2021, 02:51 PM   #32
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I can certainly see me wearing an FFP3 for my journey to Austria next year, assuming it goes ahead. I may know the current incidence of virus in my own patch, and what if any strains of virus are there, but all bets are off once you go into an airport or on to a plane.
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Old 17th February 2021, 03:03 PM   #33
marting
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Originally Posted by Spektator View Post
I've had my first Covid shot and will get my second in about a week. This past year I've come to like wearing a mask. I will definitely continue to wear one after my second vaccination. I'm also considering buying a revolver and looking around for silver bullets, a fiery white horse with the speed of light, and possibly a Native American faithful companion.

I guess I've gone a little stir crazy in the past year, too.
The problem with silver bullets is that they drop off faster than lead being less dense. Gold or tungsten is much better though tungsten, while cheaper, is hard on the barrel rifling. There's always cladding but that's harder for DIY types like the LR.
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Old 17th February 2021, 03:04 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
Rubbish, talk about rubbish the dangerous vaccines, fill your body with those, and see what gives down the road in your body and life.
You sound like my mother did. She would believe all the emails shared by her friends (mom is almost 80). So I'd talk her through it...risk and benefit. Those emails can be pretty slick how they skew statistics. After a month of delaying, she has had her first shot!! yay Mom!

Have not seen her in a year and she needed it so me and my 12yr old (who cannot get one) can go visit soon. We miss mom!

Last edited by Sherkeu; 17th February 2021 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 17th February 2021, 03:28 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I think the first thing we need is confirmation that vaccination prevents not just getting sick but also being able to pass on the virus. If the virus is replicating in and being expelled from the upper respiratory tracts of healthy vaccinated individuals, that could be a recipe for disaster.

To emphasise, we don't know that that's going to happen, and it's more likely than not that it won't. But since it's something that there hasn't been time to test for and address due to the rapid roll-out of the vaccine, we shouldn't be taking any chances.
I suggest you look at Israel's stats. They are way ahead of everyone else. They have already vaccinated all the vulnerable. The number of cases is going down, due to the lockdown, but the number of deaths is going down faster. If you do this please remember to have a delay between new cases and deaths.
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Old 18th February 2021, 04:05 AM   #36
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I know about Israel's stats. It looks promising. As yet it proves nothing. As I said, it's most likely that the vaccines do largely prevent virus transmission but it's too early to be acting on the assumption that they do.
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Old 18th February 2021, 06:51 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I know about Israel's stats. It looks promising. As yet it proves nothing. As I said, it's most likely that the vaccines do largely prevent virus transmission but it's too early to be acting on the assumption that they do.
Is there even respiratory disease where vaccination does not prevent transmission ?
I mean sure .. if you breath in in saturated environment, let's say elevator you shared with infected person .. and then you exhale .. you might exhale dose dangerous enough.
But to be infectious for extended period, in order of minutes and hours, you need the virus to reproduce inside you, at huge rates, Which is exactly what the vaccine prevents.
Even if you are not vaccinated, it takes several days before you start being infectious.
I wouldn't worry about it.
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Old 18th February 2021, 07:11 AM   #38
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It's possible that a vaccinated person could contract the virus, and it might multiply in significant quantities in their upper respiratory tract (which may not be protected by IgA) while the humoral IgG protects the lower respiratory tract and so the person doesn't get sick, or at worst has what merely seems like a mild head cold. In this situation such a person may be breathing out infective quantities of virus quite easily. I'm not saying this will happen, but we've been repeatedly warned that we're not certain that it won't. It's something that would normally be addressed during extended testing of a vaccine, and that obviously hasn't happened in this case. So better take precautions until we're sure.

As I said, topical vaccines that promote upper respiratory tract formation of IgA have been in development for some time, and when these are available this issue can be addressed if it is indeed a problem. The current vaccines are doing extremely well at reducing illness and death, but they're first-shot emergency prototypes in many ways. Improved models will be along in due course. Efficacy against new variants, multivalent vaccines, vaccines less likely to produce unpleasant reactions, vaccines that will stop transmission of the virus - we know how to do all this, but it can't happen overnight.
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Old 18th February 2021, 07:30 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
It takes longer than you think to show in the statistics. ............
No, I was thinking along the lines of pretty soon we will have vaxxed all the high risk people. You chart proves 6 weeks will stop their excess deaths.

America is vaxxing 3-4 million poer day. In a week, + 2 weeks to take effect, the 10% of the highest risk individuals will be eliminated form the graphs.

And once the decrepit old folks (like me) stop dying Covid falls waaaay down in the list of health concerns.

Once the bubble of deaths among the newly exposed is over, and in light of the fact that few people die of Covid until old age, it might be like a shingles vaccine-only administered to over 60s.
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Old 18th February 2021, 07:37 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Caroline13 View Post
...I will forever believe ...
Then perhaps a "Skeptics" forum is not for you.
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