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Tags Coronavirus , vaccination , vaccines

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Old 13th November 2022, 09:33 PM   #2521
Puppycow
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Yeah. Me too. As for John, I thought he was pretty good early on then something happened. The change has resulted in his videos getting a much larger audience. Might a pecuniary interest be in play? Hmmm.
Audience capture is what they call it.

Quote:
Audience capture is a self-reinforcing feedback loop that involves telling one's audience what they want to hear and getting rewarded for it.
https://theportal.wiki/wiki/Audience_Capture

The Perils of Audience Capture
Quote:
How influencers become brainwashed by their audiences
I'm sure that the reward is not only money, but that's a big part of it. It's also an emotional reward and an ego boost as well.
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Old 13th November 2022, 09:40 PM   #2522
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
One thing I'm sure of, knowing so many people who are virtually asymptomatic with the Scrabble variants, is that cases are many times more than being listed, and with deaths still dropping, covid appears to be well and truly over.
I haven't looked at Worldometer in a while.

Looks like the 7-day moving average of deaths is below 1,000 per day now. For about 2 years from April 2020 through March 2022 it was never below 5,000 per day and sometimes over 10,000 per day.
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Old 13th November 2022, 10:54 PM   #2523
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Audience capture is what they call it.


https://theportal.wiki/wiki/Audience_Capture

The Perils of Audience Capture


I'm sure that the reward is not only money, but that's a big part of it. It's also an emotional reward and an ego boost as well.
Good stuff. Thanks.

On another note, I've seen recent papers on correlating covid-19 outcomes with genetic differences. Noticing that full genome decodes now cost under $300, I ordered a kit last week.

Seems lots of work is going on in other areas now that the price is dropping so radically. Eric Topol's latest blog entry is on exactly this:

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/cli...ome-sequencing
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Old 15th November 2022, 04:23 PM   #2524
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Paxlovid rebound incidence higher than in control group.

Interesting and surprising study (preprint) that shows Covid-19 rebound was higher in the treatment group. Also, overall rebound was higher than previous reports.

The Paxlovid Rebound Study: A Prospective Cohort Study to Evaluate Viral and
Symptom Rebound Differences Between Paxlovid and Untreated COVID-19 Participants

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...195v1.full.pdf

This is a small study, Paxlovid N=127, Control=43. Hence stat points should be taken with a large grain of salt.

Quote:
Virus testing rebound incidence trended higher in the Paxlovid group (18/127; 14.2%) than in the control group (4/43; 9.3%) (Figure 3a and Table 1). Symptom rebound incidence was notably higher in the Paxlovid group (18.9%) than the control group (7.0%).
...
Our study demonstrated an overall viral testing rebound incidence of 14% and a symptom rebound incidence of 19% among Paxlovid treated cases. Both incidences are higher than have been reported in prior retrospective studies which ranged from 2% to 6%
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Old 16th November 2022, 09:45 AM   #2525
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Interview with Dr. Fauci

Dr. [Anthony] Fauci: Well, I think there are two or three aspects of what is going to be needed regarding the relationship between vaccines and durability and depth and breadth of protection. We have great vaccines. I mean, some of the great scientific breakthroughs of the last few years have been the mRNA vaccine and immunogen design based on structure-based vaccine design. But even with that advance, we do need better vaccine platforms and immunogens to lead to greater durability and breadth of protection. That could be nanoparticles, or that could be vector-based expression of immunogens. Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News

There are a number of interesting points made in this interview with Dr. Fauci, who has long been director of NIAID at NIH.
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Old 16th November 2022, 12:53 PM   #2526
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And on a side note, I've tested positive at long last - the third entry into our house was a step too far to avoid.

On the bright side, covid has now caught atheism!

I have Paxlovid on the way and will report on it in due course.
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Old 18th November 2022, 11:32 PM   #2527
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Australia is getting a small surge in numbers. The number of cases has doubled in the last two weeks. No need to panic, though I am waiting for them to tell people they need to start wearing masks again. This should be done sooner rather than later. Remember Australia is heading towards summer, so if Covid 19 was something that happens in winter then the number of cases should be going down.

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ts-live-update

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...eastern-states
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Old 19th November 2022, 09:30 AM   #2528
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Increases in South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong are more concerning ..

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...SA~GBR~DEU~GRC
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Old 19th November 2022, 11:50 AM   #2529
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UK numbers have stopped falling, and may be going up again.
https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data
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Old 19th November 2022, 11:52 AM   #2530
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
Australia is getting a small surge in numbers. The number of cases has doubled in the last two weeks. No need to panic, though I am waiting for them to tell people they need to start wearing masks again. This should be done sooner rather than later. Remember Australia is heading towards summer, so if Covid 19 was something that happens in winter then the number of cases should be going down.
We already know that's not the case. See the wave in the UK this summer. https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data
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Old 19th November 2022, 03:01 PM   #2531
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Hmm...

Am I the only one that watches TV news in Australia?

I've seen many people exhorting Australians to mask up in public places.

Renewed my driver's licence last week, and six out of sixteen people were wearing masks in the waiting room (including me).

All of the staff were wearing masks.

I've had a quick look around and can see many statements like this:

Quote:
It is strongly recommended that you wear a face mask on public transport, in indoor public spaces and when you cannot stay 1.5 metres from others.
The exact wording varies from State to State.
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Old 19th November 2022, 03:47 PM   #2532
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
We already know that's not the case. See the wave in the UK this summer. https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data
Yeah, Japan had its biggest surge so far right in the middle of the summer. It's not seasonal like flu is.
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Old 19th November 2022, 06:29 PM   #2533
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I'm happy to leave masks to individual choice from here on.

Small sample, I know, but I know 16 people who have had covid in the past month, including myself. All fully vaccinated and all extremely mild, and in my own case, so mild that I was completely asymptomatic and wouldn't have been testing myself but for sharing a house with a couple of plague rats and taking tests out of respect for people I work with.

My opinion from here on is that people be encouraged to stay up to date with vaccines, encouraged to wear masks in crowds indoors, and otherwise just forget it.

Cases have gone up everywhere and deaths have continued falling. It's over, with the only thing needed being genomic sampling in case an unusual variant arises.
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Old 21st November 2022, 09:00 AM   #2534
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Eric Topol's latest post on BQ.1/BQ.1.1 Very detailed analysis and discussion of variant evolution to date leaving him quite optomistic there will not be a signficant wave in the USA in the next few months.

https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-bq11-variant-story

Quote:
This is the first time in the pandemic that a variant with clearcut, marked immune evasion has not induced a major new wave. Examples of prior variants with increases in immune escape properties include Beta, Gamma, Omicron BA.1, BA.2, and BA.5. Each of these led to major waves globally or in specific continents (Beta in South Africa, Gamma in South America).
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Old 21st November 2022, 09:27 AM   #2535
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Increases in South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong are more concerning ..

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers...SA~GBR~DEU~GRC
Hong Kong numbers have been up and down all the time. This most recent rise is probably caused by the rugby 7s, which for the first time allowed tens of thousands of people to meet at the stadium, and they were lax about the mask rules which are still normally very strictly applied.

Based on today's figures its probably peaked anyway.

HK still has a relatively covid naive population compared to say, Europe, due to being isolated and having such heavy restrictions for so long, but its current wave is omicron all the way, so the big numbers per day dont add up to serious conditions or pressure on health service. e.g. currently only 13 in ICU.
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Old 21st November 2022, 12:24 PM   #2536
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Large Myocarditis post vaccine study in Ontario CA. Most occurances within the first 7 days at about 14x background. Note that background is extremely low <1:1,000,000 over 7 days. Over 3 weeks incidence is 7x background so the effect is tightly coupled with recent vax. Note this is the entire population. Incidence is significantly higher for young males.

Observed versus expected rates of myocarditis after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: a population-based cohort study

https://www.cmaj.ca/content/194/45/E1529

Quote:
Results: We observed 99 incident cases of myocarditis within 7 days (0.97 cases per 100 000 vaccine doses; observed v. expected ratio 14.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 10.83–16.55) and 141 cases within 21 days (1.37 cases per 100 000 vaccine doses; observed v. expected ratio 7.03, 95% CI 5.92–8.29) postvaccination. Cases of myocarditis per 100 000 vaccine doses were higher for people aged 12–17 years (2.64, 95% CI 1.54–4.22) and 18–29 years (2.63, 95% CI 1.94–3.50) than for older age groups.
...
Given the emerging evidence, a potential causal association between SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines and myocarditis may exist. However, risk–benefit assessments have determined that the benefits of using mRNA SARS-CoV-2 vaccines outweigh the risks of myocarditis.
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Old 21st November 2022, 12:32 PM   #2537
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COVID-19 and Excess All-Cause Mortality in the US and 20 Comparison Countries, June 2021-March 2022

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2774445

Interesting study. Check out the difference between NZ and US v vax rates. Also most/least vaccinated states in the US. Really big difference.

The exceptionally low excess deaths in the highly vaccinated NZ is not consistent with the notion that vaccines are more dangerous than Covid-19 that some CTers seem to believe.
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Old 21st November 2022, 04:46 PM   #2538
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
Eric Topol's latest post on BQ.1/BQ.1.1 Very detailed analysis and discussion of variant evolution to date leaving him quite optomistic there will not be a signficant wave in the USA in the next few months.
Bingo!

Originally Posted by marting View Post
The exceptionally low excess deaths in the highly vaccinated NZ is not consistent with the notion that vaccines are more dangerous than Covid-19 that some CTers seem to believe.
Alas, we'll never make them believe that, because the vaccine deaths have been covered up!
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Old 30th November 2022, 12:14 PM   #2539
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The fallout of covid halting other viruses for a couple of years continues, with paediatric ICUs overflowing with RSV cases: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...d-by-rsv-cases
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Old 1st December 2022, 04:25 PM   #2540
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Interesting, but small, study shows teenage brains ageing prematurely post-covid.

The jury's out on what it means, long term.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...ng-study-finds
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Old 1st December 2022, 05:17 PM   #2541
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Interesting, but small, study shows teenage brains ageing prematurely post-covid.

The jury's out on what it means, long term.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/...ng-study-finds
Well, to add something I ran across this morning:

Impact of COVID-19 on male and female reproductive health
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20...ve-health.aspx

Here's a juicy quote:
Quote:
Studies have reported that all SARS-CoV-2 infected males had orchitis at autopsy.
Ouch.
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Old 2nd December 2022, 02:38 AM   #2542
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Holy crap!

Nobody tell antivaxers about this:

Quote:
COVID-19 infection could result in more severe testicular damage in young men than older men. SAR-CoV-2 infections in males have also been associated with a higher risk of male sterility.
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Old 3rd December 2022, 03:06 PM   #2543
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More fallout from the lack of normal childhood diseases being suppressed by lockdowns, thence reducing immunity - this time streptococcal diseases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-63844880

5 dead kids under age 10 so far this year.

That starts to look pretty ugly in the face only 6 children under age 18 without comorbidities dying of covid in UK during the first year of the pandemic.

Covid is a disease that kills older people - lockdowns cause disease that kills young ones. I'm beginning to wonder if we got it all totally wrong.
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Old 3rd December 2022, 06:53 PM   #2544
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
More fallout from the lack of normal childhood diseases being suppressed by lockdowns, thence reducing immunity - this time streptococcal diseases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-63844880

5 dead kids under age 10 so far this year.

That starts to look pretty ugly in the face only 6 children under age 18 without comorbidities dying of covid in UK during the first year of the pandemic.

Covid is a disease that kills older people - lockdowns cause disease that kills young ones. I'm beginning to wonder if we got it all totally wrong.
It's been well known since early 2020, that Covid-19 mortality highly skewed towards the elderly with about a 10x increase for every 20 years of age. Or, said another way, mortality amongst people under 40 is very small, and under 20 smaller yet.

In the first year prior to vaccines there really should have been more focus on protecting older people. While there was, in the larger media, recognition that the older were more at risk, I don't think the degree was well understood or communicated.

Post vaccines, which were quite effective with the initial variants and decreased somewhat through Delta, it made sense to push vaccines to most everyone. And vaccines mandates amongst some like health care workers, military, etc. made sense.

But then Omicron came and upended things. It's simply not as lethal but far more contageous. So much so that IHME estimates that 94% of the US population has been infected at least once with Covid-19. Implicit in that is the vast majority of vaccinated have been infected with Covid-19 too. There really is little reason for vaccine mandates at this point. At least if the idea is protecting others. Vaccines do, however, significantly reduce hospitalization in people over 50. Even amongst those previously infected. But the data for this is pretty much limited to the older population.

As an example, in San Diego County (over 3M people) there have not been any covid-19 fatalities for anyone under 50, vaccinated or not, in the last three months.

Efficacy of vaccines for the non-elderly in 2022 (Omicron) against death is not known and is not measurable in a statistically significant sense.

There's a certain inertia associated with public health messaging. First masks were useless and you should wash your hands ever time you touched something. The masks were a good thing but only to prevent droplets from people infected so could be made with anything since Covid-19 wasn't considered airborne until well into 2021.

At this point vaccine boosters need to be heavily promoted for older people where it clearly makes a difference even if they are less effective than with the variants prior to Omicron. That's the group at risk.

Funny how people seem to glom onto a set of beliefs and don't change them when new data/evidence shows up.

China is going through this big time right now after having been inundated with how dangerous Covid is to justify their zero covid policies. Great approach pre Omicron. Not as feasible with the contagios Omicron and now they have to change messaging as it is simply out of control there. But they are lucky. They held off things though the more virulent strains and have at least some of their population vaxed.
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Old 3rd December 2022, 07:17 PM   #2545
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Inflenza is going gangbusters in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ORIAM

Really high rates 10x to 100x more at this point than the prior 2 years as activity returns to normal. Covid hospitalizations are also up but likely because everyone is tested for Covid-19 prior to admitance. Covid deaths are not increasing as rapidly. A fari amount of people are both covid+ and flu+ here in San Diego. Wouldn't surprise me if flu deaths exceed covid deaths in the next few weeks.
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Old 4th December 2022, 01:59 AM   #2546
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
In the first year prior to vaccines there really should have been more focus on protecting older people. While there was, in the larger media, recognition that the older were more at risk, I don't think the degree was well understood or communicated.
The other major problem was teachers. The average age of teachers is crazily high, and they couldn't have been expected to expose themselves to the dangers of infection by the kids. There wasn't an easy answer, but it's something that needs to be figured out before the next pandemic, because the likelihood it will behave the same, as does influenza.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Vaccines do, however, significantly reduce hospitalization in people over 50.
Hell yeah.

In NZ, the vax rate for 60+ is way over 90% and the only people dying are those in high-level care.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
There's a certain inertia associated with public health messaging. First masks were useless and you should wash your hands ever time you touched something. The masks were a good thing but only to prevent droplets from people infected so could be made with anything since Covid-19 wasn't considered airborne until well into 2021.
Which is insane, given all other coronaviruses are spread through the air.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Inflenza is going gangbusters in the US.
I have little sympathy for people who don't get the 'flu vaccine - this current one is absolutely spot on.
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Old 4th December 2022, 04:42 AM   #2547
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Holy crap!

Nobody tell antivaxers about this:
You mean the purebloods will end up firing pureblanks? That would be a shame.
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Old Today, 01:29 AM   #2548
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Bloody hell I’ve got covid again. Third or fourth time (I think one was likely shedding). Anyway keeping in medicine mode, I had no symptoms when I woke this morning, just felt nauseous and out of breath after very little exertion. Felt a very mild fever in the afternoon then bingo.

I guess anti-virals is a good idea now.
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Old Today, 01:56 AM   #2549
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Wow, that's a lot!

Should be mild, but be careful, and if you can get Paxlovid, go ahead and get it.
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Old Today, 02:29 AM   #2550
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
It's been well known since early 2020, that Covid-19 mortality highly skewed towards the elderly with about a 10x increase for every 20 years of age. Or, said another way, mortality amongst people under 40 is very small, and under 20 smaller yet.

In the first year prior to vaccines there really should have been more focus on protecting older people. While there was, in the larger media, recognition that the older were more at risk, I don't think the degree was well understood or communicated.
Are you talking about the US here?

Healthcare workers, the elderly and persons with certain risk factors were initially prioritized for the vaccine. Vaccines were promoted more widely when more vaccine became available.

What was miscommunicated were mandates which certain alt-right political operatives ran with as a campaign issue. They are still running with it.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
Post vaccines, which were quite effective with the initial variants and decreased somewhat through Delta, it made sense to push vaccines to most everyone. And vaccines mandates amongst some like health care workers, military, etc. made sense.
The mandates always made sense from a clinical POV.

Originally Posted by marting View Post
But then Omicron came and upended things. It's simply not as lethal but far more contageous. So much so that IHME estimates that 94% of the US population has been infected at least once with Covid-19.
I had to look up what IHME stood for: University of Washington School of Medicine, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)

I don't think that number is right. I find it here in a preprint (aka not yet peer reviewed) so I suspect that is where they got it from.

Changes in population immunity against infection and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in the United States between December 2021 and November 2022
Quote:
Results: By November 9, 2022, 94% (95% CrI, 79%-99%) of the US population were estimated to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 at least once. Combined with vaccination, 97% (95%-99%) were estimated to have some prior immunological exposure to SARS-CoV-2.
That would mean myself, my son and daughter-in-law are among only 6% of the US population who have not been infected. I don't think several of my neighbors have been infected either.

It's only a model.
Quote:
Results By November 9, 2022, 94% (95% CrI, 79%–99%) of the US population were estimated to have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 at least once.
I could accept 80% but not 94%. If you add in vaccine coverage you would reach a high prevalence of some antibodies in the population.


Originally Posted by marting View Post
Implicit in that is the vast majority of vaccinated have been infected with Covid-19 too. There really is little reason for vaccine mandates at this point. At least if the idea is protecting others. Vaccines do, however, significantly reduce hospitalization in people over 50. Even amongst those previously infected. But the data for this is pretty much limited to the older population.
I beg to differ here. Vaccinated persons shed less virus and for shorter periods of time. Of course that depends on getting boosters at appropriate intervals.


Originally Posted by marting View Post
As an example, in San Diego County (over 3M people) there have not been any covid-19 fatalities for anyone under 50, vaccinated or not, in the last three months.

Efficacy of vaccines for the non-elderly in 2022 (Omicron) against death is not known and is not measurable in a statistically significant sense.
How do you figure it isn't measurable or not known?


We currently have an early outbreak of serious influenza coupled with significant numbers of RSV infections. It isn't known yet whether we'll see another spike in serious COVID cases because winter is here and/or due to more new variants.

And you need to add in other relevant fatalities. As hospitals filled with non-fatal COVID cases, people died from other things because they had no access to hospital care.

I'm going to address the rest in the next post.
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