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Old 28th June 2021, 04:14 PM   #41
dudalb
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Originally Posted by Venom View Post
The media isn't helping with its JAQing off and suggestive titles about this. It's sickening.
Completly expected. I don't like it anymore then you do but nothing we can do about it.
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Old 29th June 2021, 06:08 AM   #42
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So what are they then?
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Old 29th June 2021, 06:49 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by jollyroger85 View Post
So what are they then?
Incompetent ignoramuses powered entirely by unearned confidence and the frisson of feeling like they're on the inside instead of the outside. But enough about journalists. Let's get back to the topic of UFOs and the military.
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Old 29th June 2021, 08:00 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by Major Major View Post
I am (unwillingly) a listener of Coast to Coast and Ground Zero. The Flying Saucer people (I have to call them that) were so sure that the release of the report would stunningly confirm their beliefs. All the government would have to admit that they had been right all along and the aliens were here.

A webcomic I read did a comic around the time of the "Storm Area 51" event.

What teenagers think of the Area 51 raid:
"I hope they find lots of cool alien technology and alien remains."
"Or Mothman locked in a cage."

What adults think of the Area 51 raid:
"How many people do you think are going to get killed?"
"I hope they never reveal it. It helps to maintain the mystique."

Unfortunately, it's not just teenagers.
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Old 29th June 2021, 09:01 AM   #45
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An amusing opinion piece in Scientific American:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...ial-phenomena/

With an interesting suggestion:
Quote:
But rather than simply wonder about possible scenarios, we should collect better scientific data and clarify the nature of UAP. This can be done by deploying state-of-the-art cameras on wide-field telescopes that monitor the sky.
A quick Google for >all sky camera network< gets me "About 107,000,000 results"!!

And just in case some of these are not "state-of-the-art", Googling >high resolution all sky camera<, gets "About 58,400,000 results".

Knock yourself out guys.
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Old 29th June 2021, 04:21 PM   #46
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One of the things I liked about "The X Files" is the way they would occasionally send out a signal to people that they should not take the show too seriously, that the conspiracy angle was just for fun and should be mistaken for the truth.
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Old 30th June 2021, 04:22 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
One of the things I liked about "The X Files" is the way they would occasionally send out a signal to people that they should not take the show too seriously, that the conspiracy angle was just for fun and should be mistaken for the truth.
That's just what they wanted you to think, man!
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Old 30th June 2021, 05:35 AM   #48
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Incompetent ignoramuses powered entirely by unearned confidence and the frisson of feeling like they're on the inside instead of the outside. But enough about journalists. Let's get back to the topic of UFOs and the military.
You know exactly what I meant. And I'm throwing out there as a challenge not as belief. If not aliens and the miltary concedes they don't know, what are the other possibilities, that would cover enough of all of the bases to provide an explanation?
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Old 30th June 2021, 05:48 AM   #49
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Such great progress in UFO investigation in the last 69 years!

Maj. Gen. John A. Samford's Statement on "Flying Saucers", Pentagon, Washington, DC, July 31, 1952

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In summary: We can explain most. There are a few we cannot. But whatever they are we have found no threat to the United States.

Followed by a brief appearance by Major Kehoe. "Nope, they're from Outer Space."

How far we have come.

Laugh or cry. Your choice.
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Old 30th June 2021, 05:49 AM   #50
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Originally Posted by jollyroger85 View Post
You know exactly what I meant. And I'm throwing out there as a challenge not as belief. If not aliens and the miltary concedes they don't know, what are the other possibilities, that would cover enough of all of the bases to provide an explanation?
Sometimes there just isn't enough data to have any explanation.
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Old 30th June 2021, 10:54 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto View Post
An amusing opinion piece in Scientific American:

The only 'amusing' part I found in it was this:-

Quote:
As noted in my recent book Extraterrestrial, I do not enjoy science fiction stories because the story lines often violate the laws of physics. But we should be open-minded

You can't get much more closed-minded than ascribing any unexplained natural phenomena to 'alien' activities. So 'open-minded' that the only explanation he can think of is Aliens who behave just like us and probably speak almost perfect American English 'a reality that was previously considered as fiction'.
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Old 1st July 2021, 05:34 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
The only 'amusing' part I found in it was this:-




You can't get much more closed-minded than ascribing any unexplained natural phenomena to 'alien' activities. So 'open-minded' that the only explanation he can think of is Aliens who behave just like us and probably speak almost perfect American English 'a reality that was previously considered as fiction'.
BULLPUCKEY. Openminded given the lack of a definite answer to take a wait and see mindset while seeking to find out one way or the other. In the meantime based on that lack of an answer neither side is really any further along than the other.

X declares aliens without proof and accomplishes nothing
Y declares not aliens and offers nothing else.
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Old 1st July 2021, 06:48 AM   #53
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And neither of those two is what the report said, no matter how much anybody might want to make that accusation.
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Old 1st July 2021, 06:56 AM   #54
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Originally Posted by jollyroger85 View Post
BULLPUCKEY. Openminded given the lack of a definite answer to take a wait and see mindset while seeking to find out one way or the other. In the meantime based on that lack of an answer neither side is really any further along than the other.

X declares aliens without proof and accomplishes nothing
Y declares not aliens and offers nothing else.
How about: There most likely are aliens (Drake Equation et al) but the evidence presented to date has not demonstrated any visiting this planet and analysis of the "evidence" provides quite mundane answers?

Each case has to be considered on its own merits. One day we might just be able to conclude unequivocally, "That really is aliens". I await it with expectation and trepidation.

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Old 1st July 2021, 10:41 AM   #55
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
One of the things I liked about "The X Files" is the way they would occasionally send out a signal to people that they should not take the show too seriously, that the conspiracy angle was just for fun and should be mistaken for the truth.
Nothing beats the snarky narration of National Geographic's Is It Real?.
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Old 3rd July 2021, 04:54 AM   #56
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Gosh, and I figured that if they did have any evidence of otherworldly visits or tech, that they were certainly going to tell us. Finally.

Oh well, guess we can close the book on this stuff, now.
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Old 4th July 2021, 11:24 AM   #57
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I saw Face the Nation this morning, they had a guy from the House Intelligence Committee on to sort of talk about it. I'll give you the gist:

"The report doesn't rule out extraterrestrials."
"It says they're origin is unknown."
"But it doesn't specifically rule out aliens."
"It says we cannot identify the objects."
"So you're not ruling out aliens."
"We're not ruling them in either."
"So it is possible these are aliens."

American TV journalism at its finest.
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Old 4th July 2021, 11:57 AM   #58
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Originally Posted by Axxman300 View Post
I saw Face the Nation this morning, they had a guy from the House Intelligence Committee on to sort of talk about it. I'll give you the gist:

"The report doesn't rule out extraterrestrials."
"It says they're origin is unknown."
"But it doesn't specifically rule out aliens."
"It says we cannot identify the objects."
"So you're not ruling out aliens."
"We're not ruling them in either."
"So it is possible these are aliens."

American TV journalism at its finest.
Obviously the guest was trying to skirt the issue.
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Old 4th July 2021, 08:13 PM   #59
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I didn't look at the actual report itself at first. Every comment I'd heard about it said there was nothing there, so I didn't see much point. But then I heard something slightly different and had to check it for myself, and it's true. The report really does contain at least one solid conclusion that I find pretty amazing: they are convinced that some of these incidents involved real objects actually flying around out there, on the basis that they were picked up by multiple independent observations and modes of observation. (I had wondered before about the reports we get leaving out all of the details that could indicate at least whether any given case was a real flying object or something else like a radar hallucination. I hadn't heard at first that the report already includes this conclusion for us.)

For those cases, the easiest, usual explanations about human perception and sensor artifacts don't apply, and the only explanations we need to concern ourselves with are the ones that involve real flying objects. And all of those would fall into one of three categories:

1. Natural: This just doesn't fit. The trajectories these things move on are like powered vehicle trajectories, not anything dictated by gravity, wind, sunlight, volcanism, the planetary magnetic field, or animal muscles. What other natural phenomenon is left for us to resort to as an explanation for moving in the wrong direction(s) for any of those? Some thing about Ley Lines?

2. Built by aliens: Given the distance & speed problem, nobody's going to bother with interstellar travel until their planet/star is "dying", and then it would be colony ships taking ages to get anywhere, not individual joyriders. Unmanned Unalienned probes halfway through a mission that takes ages to arrive at the destination and then more ages to report back could fit the small size and lack of colonizing or reverse terraforming, but that still wouldn't give their programmers any reason to have programmed them to occasionally show off their moves to the primitive locals, though.

3. Built by humans: Among the human groups/organizations/entities I know of, I'd expect them all to admit being behind it if they were. Our enemies would gloat about their advantage over us (for that matter, they do that even without any real advantage over us to gloat about). And our allies & neutrals would politely tell us what they have and that we can't have it but we have nothing to worry about. Weirder yet, the propulsion technology would need to be not just ahead of everybody else's, but so far ahead of everybody else's that even physicists (who aren't in on it) don't even have a workable theory of how it might someday be done. That's a much wider technological gap than otherwise exists between any known human groups/organizations/entities. It's a Wakanda-level head start on the rest of the planet, and Wakanda-level secrecy about it. Even if the difference is just one unpredictable dramatic breakthrough rather than decades of gradual development, it would be weird for that breakthrough to have gone unannounced planet-wide, and for the secret to still be kept so tightly years & years later, unless it belonged to people who see themselves as pretty thoroughly separate from all other humans, like Wakanda.

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Old 5th July 2021, 01:19 AM   #60
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Originally Posted by jollyroger85 View Post
BULLPUCKEY. Openminded given the lack of a definite answer to take a wait and see mindset while seeking to find out one way or the other. In the meantime based on that lack of an answer neither side is really any further along than the other.
One side says - without a shred of evidence or rational argument - that it's aliens.

The other side has done a thorough analysis, and says...

Quote:
In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics. These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.

There are probably multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations based on the range of appearances and behaviors described in the available reporting. Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin.
... nothing about aliens - not just because there is no evidence for them, but because the very idea is preposterous. If you are going to suggest aliens then you might as well throw in dragons and Nazis from the Moon - they are just as plausible.

Quote:
X declares aliens without proof and accomplishes nothing
Y declares not aliens and offers nothing else.
False equivalence. There is nothing on the 'aliens' side, but plenty on the 'not aliens' side. The report we are discussing is just a small part of the mountains of evidence that aliens are not visiting us. But even if there wasn't, we don't have to give equal credence to every wacky theory dreamed up by people with over-active imaginations.

I had my first 'UFO' experience when I was 7. I wasn't with the whole class and the teacher who saw the 'alien craft' that day, but a friend of mine was. He drew a picture of it which was published in the local newspaper. I immediately recognized it as the same 'UFO' I had seen while going home - which was an aircraft. I remember my mother pointing out the window and saying "Hey kids, there's your 'UFO'!" - and she was right.

That was 56 years ago. 56 years of observer misperception and wishful thinking later, and they still have nothing. How many more years must I live for before finally being permitted to declare that "No, an unidentified light in the sky doesn't mean it's aliens - why would you even consider such a wacky idea?".
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Old 5th July 2021, 07:44 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
3. Built by humans: Among the human groups/organizations/entities I know of, I'd expect them all to admit being behind it if they were. Our enemies would gloat about their advantage over us (for that matter, they do that even without any real advantage over us to gloat about). And our allies & neutrals would politely tell us what they have and that we can't have it but we have nothing to worry about. Weirder yet, the propulsion technology would need to be not just ahead of everybody else's, but so far ahead of everybody else's that even physicists (who aren't in on it) don't even have a workable theory of how it might someday be done. That's a much wider technological gap than otherwise exists between any known human groups/organizations/entities. It's a Wakanda-level head start on the rest of the planet, and Wakanda-level secrecy about it. Even if the difference is just one unpredictable dramatic breakthrough rather than decades of gradual development, it would be weird for that breakthrough to have gone unannounced planet-wide, and for the secret to still be kept so tightly years & years later, unless it belonged to people who see themselves as pretty thoroughly separate from all other humans, like Wakanda.
These conclusions seem unjustified to me.

First, if enemies of the USA are sending advanced aircraft, the most likely reason is for intelligence gathering. I am not an expert on the subject, but I don't think it's common practice to brag to the world about how you gather intelligence, when and where you do it, and what information you get. This is exactly the sort of thing that the perpetrator would not admit to.

Second, USA allies (or the USA itself) would be likely to inform the USA government if the sighted objects were theirs, but this report is directed at the public, not the government. Given the number of past UAP sightings that turned out to be secret, experimental aircraft, even if these things are American planes, there is a good chance the report would not admit that.

As for the level of technology, here is the entire section of the report that focuses on that:

Originally Posted by UAP Report
And a Handful of UAP Appear to Demonstrate Advanced Technology

In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics.

Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings.

The UAPTF holds a small amount of data that appear to show UAP demonstrating acceleration or a degree of signature management. Additional rigorous analysis are necessary by multiple teams or groups of technical experts to determine the nature and validity of these data. We are conducting further analysis to determine if breakthrough technologies were demonstrated.
This isn't enough to conclude that anything is "Wakanda-level" advanced, or even "1950's USSR-level" advanced. The alleged things appeared to exhibit powered movement, and the propulsion was not always obvious. The report gives no details: they maneuver "abruptly," "accelerate," and move at "considerable" speed. The phrasing is so vague it would apply to a drone from Best Buy. And we don't know the observation conditions, so we don't know if propulsion would have been expected to be observed.

Also, the report doesn't even specify how many, if any, of these 18 incidents are among the 80 that involved multiple sensors. This leaves simple observer error or sensor problems as possibilities. (And even if these 18 did involve multiple sensors, given the small number, it is possible that these are just the very few cases where multiple sensor errors coincided).

I'd still say that this report gives approximately nothing. There are a few incidents where the military hasn't publicly given a conclusion about what happened, and there are no details that suggest anything exciting.
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Old 5th July 2021, 09:04 AM   #62
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An "explanation" here by a true professional, Ward Carroll, who "spent 20 years in the U.S. Navy as an F-14 Radar Intercept Officer, much of the time serving aboard aircraft carriers deployed to hot spots around the world".

He has to get it right. Right?

The Truth Behind the Super Hornet UFO Encounters

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Just so you don't have to watch the whole video, the summary:
Quote:
Reasonable analysis basically puts the options into three categories: a domestic developmental program, a near-peer spy program, or aliens. In this episode, Ward builds the case for which of those three he believes is most likely.
And, guess what, they're a "domestic developmental program". For the reasoning you'll have to watch.

I'd like to introduce Commander Carroll to the concept of False dilemmaWP.
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Old 5th July 2021, 10:49 AM   #63
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My limited experience with science suggests that throughout history the advancement of technology does not exist in a vacuum. People are usually working on the same technology independent of each other in labs around the world. As soon as science opens a door a bunch sharp people get similar ideas and off they go to the chalkboard.

Powered flight, nuclear reaction (atomic bombs), the light bulb, radio, the transmission of electricity over great distances were all technology that was being worked on around the world at the same time.

Then the more sophisticated and exotic the technology the smaller the community of engineers and scientists working on it. Even if they're from difference nations they often know one another through conferences and reading each other's open-source research papers. Even if their current projects are secret these people usually share the same head-space. The F-117 was based on the physics culled from an obscure Russian scientist's research paper read by someone at Lockheed's Skunkworks. Decades later the Russian scientist was shocked because nobody in the Soviet Union read his work.

So the idea that Russia or China (or the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Italy, or France) have a secret propulsion system that nobody in the US knows about is unlikely.

The great thing about this message board is a few of our fellow posters work in advanced technology, and many others have the physics and engineering backgrounds to tackle this particular subject head-on.
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Old 5th July 2021, 11:45 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Axxman300 View Post
My limited experience with science suggests that throughout history the advancement of technology does not exist in a vacuum. People are usually working on the same technology independent of each other in labs around the world. As soon as science opens a door a bunch sharp people get similar ideas and off they go to the chalkboard.

Powered flight, nuclear reaction (atomic bombs), the light bulb, radio, the transmission of electricity over great distances were all technology that was being worked on around the world at the same time.

Then the more sophisticated and exotic the technology the smaller the community of engineers and scientists working on it. Even if they're from difference nations they often know one another through conferences and reading each other's open-source research papers. Even if their current projects are secret these people usually share the same head-space. The F-117 was based on the physics culled from an obscure Russian scientist's research paper read by someone at Lockheed's Skunkworks. Decades later the Russian scientist was shocked because nobody in the Soviet Union read his work.

So the idea that Russia or China (or the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Italy, or France) have a secret propulsion system that nobody in the US knows about is unlikely.

The great thing about this message board is a few of our fellow posters work in advanced technology, and many others have the physics and engineering backgrounds to tackle this particular subject head-on.
Charles Fort (qv) invented the phrase "Steam Engine Time" to describe this concept. When technology advances to the point that steam engines can be built, people will build steam engines.
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Old 5th July 2021, 12:01 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post

2. Built by aliens: Given the distance & speed problem, nobody's going to bother with interstellar travel until their planet/star is "dying", and then it would be colony ships taking ages to get anywhere, not individual joyriders. Unmanned Unalienned probes halfway through a mission that takes ages to arrive at the destination and then more ages to report back could fit the small size and lack of colonizing or reverse terraforming, but that still wouldn't give their programmers any reason to have programmed them to occasionally show off their moves to the primitive locals, though.
I'm not finding this line of argument particularly convincing either.

Distance & speed are indeed a problem for us, but I don't know that we're in a position to conclude that it's not a solvable problem. Plenty we still don't know about the universe.

I can think of potential reasons for visiting/monitoring other than colonization and I'm sure there are many other motivations I haven't thought of.

It seems to me that if we're speculating on alien technology and motivations, we're in a whole realm of unknowns and probably can't make many assumptions. I think the only conclusion I would be comfortable with is that if we are seeing alien tech, it's unlikely that they're a malevolent threat on any kind of global level, because we've been defenseless for some time and nothing's happened - but if they are a threat, it would be pointless (if not dangerously counter-productive) to spend resources to try to counter that threat if they're that far ahead of us technologically.
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