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Tags abortion laws , political predictions , prediction threads , Roe v. Wade

View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned
Before 31 December 2020 20 24.39%
Before 31 December 2022 10 12.20%
Before 31 December 2024 5 6.10%
SCOTUS will not pick a case up 16 19.51%
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn 31 37.80%
Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 26th July 2021, 03:22 PM   #361
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
I never heared a woman deny praise for being able to bear children, so why should they deny responsibility for it?
This would be a quality dril tweet.

So my apologies if this was meant seriously.
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Old 26th July 2021, 03:59 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
This would be a quality dril tweet.

So my apologies if this was meant seriously.
Nobody who has read your series of posts likely thinks the same. But, hard to say...because, around here, nobody has likely read the full series.

I am not against Roe v. Wade, for the record.
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Old 27th July 2021, 05:28 AM   #363
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As a legal matter, the idea that the conservatives having their 50 year plan to stack the the courts with reliable ideological conservative judges come to fruition and not overturn Roe seems awfully optimistic.

I mean, allowing for the fact that Planned Parenthood v. Casey already functionally overturned Roe, no matter how the opinion was framed, and that they certainly don't need to officially state they are overturning Roe to make it a dead letter via formalistic concern trolling over the safety of a procedure which is far less dangerous to the woman than childbirth....

Still, that is a scalp they are going to get sooner or later. With Roberts in charge it would probably be a little more nuanced. The only thing that will stop a repeal in the near future is the "liberal" wing voting along with probably Kavanaugh for a Roberts opinion that further restricts the right to abortion without fully overturning Roe, just laying further groundwork to reverse Roe in the future.
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Old 27th July 2021, 05:36 AM   #364
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
As a legal matter, the idea that the conservatives having their 50 year plan to stack the the courts with reliable ideological conservative judges come to fruition and not overturn Roe seems awfully optimistic.

I mean, allowing for the fact that Planned Parenthood v. Casey already functionally overturned Roe, no matter how the opinion was framed, and that they certainly don't need to officially state they are overturning Roe to make it a dead letter via formalistic concern trolling over the safety of a procedure which is far less dangerous to the woman than childbirth....

Still, that is a scalp they are going to get sooner or later. With Roberts in charge it would probably be a little more nuanced. The only thing that will stop a repeal in the near future is the "liberal" wing voting along with probably Kavanaugh for a Roberts opinion that further restricts the right to abortion without fully overturning Roe, just laying further groundwork to reverse Roe in the future.
I'm not convinced that an outright reversal of Roe is in the offering, though it certainly isn't beyond the pale with the current composition of the court.

Seems more likely that Roe will be gutted of most of its impact without an outright reversal. I would expect further decisions like Casey that chip away at the protections provided by Roe, making it easier for right wing states to de-facto criminalize abortion while still claiming that the rights afforded in Roe are still respected. A token nod to "precedent", while completely undermining the actual impact of the law seems more like Robert's style than a frontal assault.

Then again, who knows. Seems more and more like Breyer is choosing to repeat RBG's foolishness and die on the court rather than retire strategically, so an 8-2 court might be in our near future. Who knows what bat-**** crazy rulings might be pushed through in such a court.
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Old 27th July 2021, 10:17 AM   #365
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post

Then again, who knows. Seems more and more like Breyer is choosing to repeat RBG's foolishness and die on the court rather than retire strategically, so an 8-2 court might be in our near future. Who knows what bat-**** crazy rulings might be pushed through in such a court.
The vast majority of people have no idea how screwed we are as it is. This court even before RBG mistook herself for a highlander was doing some absurd work (corporations having religious freedom), just that the people who report on these things tend to be those that have a stake in the legitimacy of the court so it all gets downplayed.

(If it gets to 7-2 that means a GOP president and given things as they are the court might be the least of our worries.)


But yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a few more cases limiting the right to abortion before it gets whacked, but I don't think that is the probability. The assumption they won't relies on the idea that the court is either concerned with legitimacy and/or worried about blowback from an energized Democratic Party, but these guys don't care much about the first and the Democrats are continuously proving that they are totally incompetent in the face of this sort of aggression.
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Old 11th August 2021, 09:36 PM   #366
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Australian law probably has little to no influence on US law, but FWIW:

"Protesting outside abortion clinics will no longer be allowed in any Australian jurisdiction, after laws to introduce safe access zones in Western Australia passed State Parliament."

"The Public Health Amendment (Safe Access Zones) Bill 2021 passed the Labor-dominated Legislative Council today.

"With WA the last state to legislate safe access zones, the bill's passage means women in every state and territory are now protected against intimidation when accessing abortion services."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...bill/100366664
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Old 12th August 2021, 12:50 AM   #367
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Yay for Aussie!

They're not allowed to protest in NZ either. At least, if I see them, they aren't. The law may differ.
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Old 14th August 2021, 12:44 PM   #368
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Why can't abortions be performed as ordinary in-patient procedures at regular hospitals anyway? It seems the mere existence of "abortion clinics" is unnecessarily stigmatising in the first place.
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Old 14th August 2021, 01:11 PM   #369
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Originally Posted by Ron Obvious View Post
Why can't abortions be performed as ordinary in-patient procedures at regular hospitals anyway? It seems the mere existence of "abortion clinics" is unnecessarily stigmatising in the first place.
That would send the cost through the roof and makes abortion less accessible. Rarely would someone need to be an in-patient at a hospital. Something like half of first-trimester abortions are medical abortions, meaning a woman takes a combination of medications at home that end the pregnancy. In addition, a doctor would need admitting privileges at a hospital, which is IMO an unnecessary hurdle. Some states try this though.

It's only stigmatizing if people choose to attach a stigma to it, which is big in the US, not so much the rest of the modern world. Why add a bunch of roadblocks to a legal medical procedure?
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Old 14th August 2021, 01:43 PM   #370
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Duh, I meant to say "outpatient" in the first place.
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Old 14th August 2021, 02:23 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by Ron Obvious View Post
Duh, I meant to say "outpatient" in the first place.
There could be a euphemism employed I suppose, but what's the point? If you need a surgical abortion, you don't go to a place that specializes in cataract repair. Everybody would know which centers performed abortions and they'd call them an "abortion clinics" anyway.

IMO.
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Old 14th August 2021, 07:37 PM   #372
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Maybe though, they'd stop calling every Planned Parenthood clinic a 'abortion clinic', even the ones that have never performed a single abortion?
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Old 1st September 2021, 05:17 AM   #373
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Texas Law That Bans Abortion Before Many Women Know They're Pregnant Takes Effect

Quote:
Legislation banning abortions after about six weeks is now the law of the land in Texas, effectively ending Roe v. Wade protections in the state.

In a move that surprised some high court watchers, the U.S. Supreme Court didn't act on an emergency request to stop the law from taking effect by midnight Tuesday. This allowed the policy to go ahead despite court challenges.

The Texas law, passed in May, bans all abortions in the state after about six weeks of pregnancy — well before many women even know they are pregnant. The policy conflicts with the Supreme Court's precedents, which prohibit states from banning abortion prior to fetal viability, usually between 22 and 24 weeks of pregnancy.

Texas' new law is one of the most strict abortion bans in the nation.

It also allows private citizens to sue abortion providers and anyone else who helps a woman obtain an abortion, including those who give a woman a ride to a clinic or provide financial assistance in obtaining an abortion. Private citizens who bring these suits don't need to show any connection to those they are suing. If they prevail, the law entitles them to a minimum of $10,000 in damages plus attorney fees.
Wow, so this is one of those fetal heartbeat laws, if I'm not mistaken. Plus the part that allows any private citizen to sue anyone who helps a woman obtain an abortion, even if it's just giving her a ride to the clinic. Would that include driving her to another state with different laws? And the Supreme Court has through inaction allowed it to go into effect. Six weeks is a very short window.

Crazy stuff, but it may finally be upon us for real.
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Old 1st September 2021, 05:23 AM   #374
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This is RBG's legacy. All the things she worked for over a long life of advocacy are being wiped out because she refused to play the game.

Breyer seems dead set on repeating her error. It's depressing how bad the liberals are at this.
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Old 1st September 2021, 05:52 AM   #375
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So much for Roe v. Wade not being in danger of being overturned any time soon.
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Old 1st September 2021, 09:20 AM   #376
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I count this as an overruling of Roe vs. Wade, de facto if not de jure. Its a thoroughly awful law that turns a portion of the population into money-grubbing snitches, and another portion into subjects of harassment who are not afforded what I would consider due process of law. I would seriously rather have Roe vs. Wade de jure overturned and have criminal laws against abortion in which the person accused has full due process rights. For the poll, the people who said before 31 December 2022 were right.
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Old 1st September 2021, 09:23 AM   #377
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//Slight out context hijack//

Should this discussion stay here or in the Roe V Wade thread in Politics? I think (personal opinion only) if we keep both going it's just going to be the same arguments in both threads.
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Old 1st September 2021, 09:30 AM   #378
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//Glimmer of hope//

SCOTUS is already scheduled to rule on a 15 week abortion ban soon. Maybe they just aren't ruling on this one because they figure they can defacto rule on both of them.

*I know, not likely, let me hope.*
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Old 1st September 2021, 09:46 AM   #379
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
//Glimmer of hope//

SCOTUS is already scheduled to rule on a 15 week abortion ban soon. Maybe they just aren't ruling on this one because they figure they can defacto rule on both of them.

*I know, not likely, let me hope.*
Wasn't the issue for today staying the law from going into effect? Such a stay would not have implied ruling on this one way or the other.
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Old 1st September 2021, 12:06 PM   #380
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
//Glimmer of hope//

SCOTUS is already scheduled to rule on a 15 week abortion ban soon. Maybe they just aren't ruling on this one because they figure they can defacto rule on both of them.

*I know, not likely, let me hope.*
Roe ve Wade is dead;just a matter of when.
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Old 1st September 2021, 12:08 PM   #381
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Roe ve Wade is dead;just a matter of when.
And then the Civil War, we know.
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Old 1st September 2021, 12:17 PM   #382
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Roe ve Wade is dead;just a matter of when.
Maybe if Breyer dies and another conservative ghoul gets his seat.

Much more likely that Roe is incrementally defanged, while never actually being overturned. By letter, it will still be law. In spirit, dead as disco.

It's pretty much on life support in conservative states already. Just a couple more nudges and it's over.
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Old 1st September 2021, 12:26 PM   #383
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Maybe if Breyer dies and another conservative ghoul gets his seat.

Much more likely that Roe is incrementally defanged, while never actually being overturned. By letter, it will still be law. In spirit, dead as disco.

It's pretty much on life support in conservative states already. Just a couple more nudges and it's over.
I see it now abortion only in the first two weeks of a pregnancy, right up until you have sex.
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Old 1st September 2021, 12:42 PM   #384
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I never thought I'd be watching my rights get stripped away on a daily basis. I'm just so angry at all of the politicians right now.
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Old 1st September 2021, 04:08 PM   #385
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Looks like the poll option of before 31/12/22 wins, because it's now been overturned in Texas, and similarly conservative insane far-right states will follow.
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Old 1st September 2021, 09:53 PM   #386
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Looks like the poll option of before 31/12/22 wins, because it's now been overturned in Texas, and similarly conservative insane far-right states will follow.
There's no only "overturned in Texas". Roe v. Wade is either the "law of the land" or it is not. As long as Texas is part of "the land", if it's overturned in Texas it means it's not the "law of the land" (notwithstanding Lone Star secessionist fantasies).
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Old 2nd September 2021, 04:59 AM   #387
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Quote:
BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote, with Roberts joining the liberals, the Supreme Court REFUSES to block Texas' six-week abortion ban.
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1433278317269028865

A 5-4 vote. No single person had more power to stop this from happening that RBG. Her refusal to secure her seat for another liberal justice is going to doom a generation, if not more, to right wing rule. What an absolute putz.

ETA: Maybe I'm wrong. RBG: total moron, or crypto-accelerationist?
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Old 2nd September 2021, 05:28 AM   #388
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1433278317269028865

A 5-4 vote. No single person had more power to stop this from happening that RBG. Her refusal to secure her seat for another liberal justice is going to doom a generation, if not more, to right wing rule. What an absolute putz.

ETA: Maybe I'm wrong. RBG: total moron, or crypto-accelerationist?
Oh **** me. The US is now officially a basket case. Used to be a nice, progressive, decent country. No longer.
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Old 2nd September 2021, 05:53 AM   #389
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Quote:
justice breyer's book, about how the supreme court is not political, drops next week
https://twitter.com/The_Law_Boy/stat...86483297935365

How bad do things have to get before liberals stop saying braindead things like this?

Any judge who ever says something like this should be automatically disqualified for further advancement. The stakes are simply too high for clueless rubes to have lifetime appointment.
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Old 2nd September 2021, 11:43 AM   #390
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
There's no only "overturned in Texas". Roe v. Wade is either the "law of the land" or it is not. As long as Texas is part of "the land", if it's overturned in Texas it means it's not the "law of the land" (notwithstanding Lone Star secessionist fantasies).
And now that it's officially sanctioned, it's going to happen in a lot more states very quickly, so no, not the whole USA, but a very large geographical majority.

Excuse me while I go track people who pooh-poohed the idea that USA is becoming a de facto stone age theocracy...

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
ETA: Maybe I'm wrong. RBG: total moron, or crypto-accelerationist?
Neither, just human.

She fell into the trap of thinking Hillary was going to win and she would be replaced by a soul daughter.
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Old 2nd September 2021, 12:34 PM   #391
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
I never thought I'd be watching my rights get stripped away on a daily basis. I'm just so angry at all of the politicians right now.
Though it is the Republicans who deserve the vast majority of your ire.
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Old 2nd September 2021, 12:35 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
I see it now abortion only in the first two weeks of a pregnancy, right up until you have sex.
Maybe they will ban sex. Except in cases of marriage, rape and incest.
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Old 2nd September 2021, 12:37 PM   #393
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Neither, just human.

She fell into the trap of thinking Hillary was going to win and she would be replaced by a soul daughter.
There's no indication that this is true. According to RBG, her reasons for not retiring were that she was more liberal than any nominee that could get through the approval process. She also made comments about following the Rehnquist model--ie, serving until she dropped dead. I'm sure she would have preferred to die during a Clinton administration, but then she probably would have preferred not to die at all.

I think there's just a tendency for Very Important People to regard themselves as irreplaceable. The world just gets worse when they aren't around anymore, so stick around as long as possible. It doesn't occur to them to mitigate the harm that comes with the inevitable.

Anyway, this is all a very stupid way to run things.
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Old 2nd September 2021, 12:47 PM   #394
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Originally Posted by mumblethrax View Post
There's no indication that this is true. According to RBG, her reasons for not retiring were that she was more liberal than any nominee that could get through the approval process. She also made comments about following the Rehnquist model--ie, serving until she dropped dead. I'm sure she would have preferred to die during a Clinton administration, but then she probably would have preferred not to die at all.
Roberts is more liberal than any nominee a Republican could nominate and get confirmed, which is what RBG's logic didn't take into account.
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Old 3rd September 2021, 06:59 AM   #395
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
Wasn't the issue for today staying the law from going into effect? Such a stay would not have implied ruling on this one way or the other.
Lack of standing now? It was a 'shadow decision'. New suit to follow?
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Old 3rd September 2021, 07:25 AM   #396
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Looks like the poll option of before 31/12/22 wins, because it's now been overturned in Texas, and similarly conservative insane far-right states will follow.
No. That's not how federal law and supreme court rulings work in the US. The only way to satisfy the condition, Roe v Wade is overturned, is if the supreme court issues a new ruling that overturns it. What Texas has done is something else. Texas is attempting to work around the restrictions placed on them by Roe v Wade, which is still very much in effect in Texas.
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Old 3rd September 2021, 09:22 AM   #397
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
This is RBG's legacy. All the things she worked for over a long life of advocacy are being wiped out because she refused to play the game.

Breyer seems dead set on repeating her error. It's depressing how bad the liberals are at this.
I don't know why you insist on repeating this lie. Trump put three Justices on the SC giving them a 6 to 3 majority. Even had RBG retired early, Trump still would have gotten two seats, they'd have a 5-4 majority and would still be attempting this crap.
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Old 3rd September 2021, 09:35 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Though it is the Republicans who deserve the vast majority of your ire.
I don't share your view on that.
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Old 3rd September 2021, 09:38 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I don't know why you insist on repeating this lie.
Because it's not about RBG at all anymore but his, at this point utterly insane, massive hatred of mainstream, centrist Democrats and his idea that they can do nothing right and his need to remind us he thinks this (and is therefore more pure and better than us) every chance he gets.

He's not a tainted Democrat like the rest of us but a pure, evolved Progressive and he will make damn sure we don't forget it.
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Old 3rd September 2021, 10:04 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
I don't know why you insist on repeating this lie. Trump put three Justices on the SC giving them a 6 to 3 majority. .
But the vote he is blaming on RBG went 5-4, not 6-3, with all of Trump's appointees being amongst the 5.

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