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Tags 2016 elections , donald trump , fivethirtyeight.com , hillary clinton , Nate Silver , political predictions , public opinion polls

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Old 14th October 2016, 02:20 PM   #281
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
In my physics undergrad class our lecturer said that the physicists assumed that the mathematicians had proved the theories, whilst the mathematicians assumed the physicists had empirically demonstrated the theories to be true.


I've always held the view that mathematics is a game, much like chess. You define axioms, say, what is a group, and then derive theorems from them. Any resemblance with the physical reality is pure coincidence.
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Old 14th October 2016, 02:59 PM   #282
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fortuitous coincidence


ETA
Waay off topic but, with its possible to solve Schrodinger's equation analytically for a hydrogen atom yet nature calculates it instantaneously for molecules.
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Old 14th October 2016, 04:05 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Arizona (Data Orbital; 10/11-12)

Clinton 43%
Donald 42%
Johnson 5%
Within margin of error but Clinton is ahead in a poll in Arizona.
I will be so happy if Donald manages to lose Arizona.

I will do my part by voting for Hillary dozens of times.
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Old 14th October 2016, 05:34 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
fortuitous coincidence
Thank you for touching up my English.

Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
ETA
Waay off topic but, with its possible to solve Schrodinger's equation analytically for a hydrogen atom yet nature calculates it instantaneously for molecules.
Hence quantum computing.
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Old 14th October 2016, 10:04 PM   #285
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Many people would take issue with the phrase "fortuitous coincidence" as a tautology. I am not so. prescriptive. It is true that both mean "by chance" but fortuitous implies "good luck", so I would say it adds emphasis.

Many people would disagree with that usage.
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Old 15th October 2016, 03:15 AM   #286
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Many people would take issue with the phrase "fortuitous coincidence" as a tautology. I am not so. prescriptive. It is true that both mean "by chance" but fortuitous implies "good luck", so I would say it adds emphasis.

Many people would disagree with that usage.
I thought the NAMBLA meme was dead.
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Old 15th October 2016, 03:27 AM   #287
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Originally Posted by Fitter View Post
I thought the NAMBLA meme was dead.
woosh - the sound of that going right over my head.

You can see that my phone put spurious full stops.
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Old 15th October 2016, 03:57 AM   #288
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Thank you for touching up my English.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/touch+up

Quote:
vb (tr, adverb)
1. to put extra or finishing touches to
2. to enhance, renovate, or falsify by putting extra touches to: to touch up a photograph.
3. to stimulate or rouse as by a tap or light blow
4. slang Brit to touch or caress (someone), esp to arouse sexual feelings
See 4.

"Serendipitous" is a favourite word of mine and oddly appropriate (in contrast to Trump's compulsive touching-up)

Quote:
1. The faculty of making fortunate discoveries by accident.
2. The fact or occurrence of such discoveries.
3. An instance of making such a discovery.
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Old 15th October 2016, 04:55 AM   #289
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Many people would take issue with the phrase "fortuitous coincidence" as a tautology. I am not so. prescriptive. It is true that both mean "by chance" but fortuitous implies "good luck", so I would say it adds emphasis.

Many people would disagree with that usage.
I agree with your assessment FWIW. It's one of those many English words I know passively, but wouldn't quickly use actively because they're simply not at the front of your mind.
Originally Posted by CapelDodger View Post
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/touch+up
Quote:
vb (tr, adverb)
1. to put extra or finishing touches to
2. to enhance, renovate, or falsify by putting extra touches to: to touch up a photograph.
3. to stimulate or rouse as by a tap or light blow
4. slang Brit to touch or caress (someone), esp to arouse sexual feelings
See 4.
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Old 15th October 2016, 11:47 PM   #290
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post

And this is a bit where I struggle with why Nate needs simulations at all. You can only run a simulation when you have a probability distribution to begin with. The probability distribution for, say, Ohio, already rolls out of his model and is plugged into the simulation algorithm. Basically, already at step (3) you can say "Clinton has a 65.1% chance of winning Ohio". I surmise it's in the correlations between the various states that his model is too difficult to simply be calculated and that he needs a Monte Carlo run.

As you said, what Nate has, before he runs his simulations, is a probability distribution of the proportion of voters who will vote for each candidate in each state. His primary goal is to estimate the probability distribution of the number of electoral votes that each candidate will ultimately win. Let's imagine the simplest possible data that Nate could have that would permit direct calculation of this probability distribution: for each state, he takes the distribution of the vote outcomes and computes the probability that one candidate will win the state (and hence the state's electoral votes). Then his job would be to calculate the probability distribution of electoral votes from these probabilities (you say there would be 54 of them, fine).

If there are 54 such probabilities, then there are 2^54 possible election outcomes (ignoring 3rd-party candidates). Calculating the distribution of electoral votes directly would thus require more than 2^54, or quadrillions, of computer operations. And that's just for this highly over-simplified problem, where we have ignored third-party candidates and the 54*53/2 = 1400 correlation coefficients between pairs of states. Even for this simplified problem, this would be infeasible. In contrast, Nate gets stable results from just 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
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Old 16th October 2016, 06:20 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
As you said, what Nate has, before he runs his simulations, is a probability distribution of the proportion of voters who will vote for each candidate in each state. His primary goal is to estimate the probability distribution of the number of electoral votes that each candidate will ultimately win. Let's imagine the simplest possible data that Nate could have that would permit direct calculation of this probability distribution: for each state, he takes the distribution of the vote outcomes and computes the probability that one candidate will win the state (and hence the state's electoral votes). Then his job would be to calculate the probability distribution of electoral votes from these probabilities (you say there would be 54 of them, fine).
I get to the 54 by counting the congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska (which each award one elector) separately.
Originally Posted by jt512 View Post
If there are 54 such probabilities, then there are 2^54 possible election outcomes (ignoring 3rd-party candidates). Calculating the distribution of electoral votes directly would thus require more than 2^54, or quadrillions, of computer operations. And that's just for this highly over-simplified problem, where we have ignored third-party candidates and the 54*53/2 = 1400 correlation coefficients between pairs of states. Even for this simplified problem, this would be infeasible. In contrast, Nate gets stable results from just 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
Thank you. Yes, of course, that explains it, the computational complexity blows up exponentially.
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Old 16th October 2016, 08:12 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
I get to the 54 by counting the congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska (which each award one elector) separately.

Thank you. Yes, of course, that explains it, the computational complexity blows up exponentially.
Not that it matters, but I don't think you get 54.

50 states
District of Columbia
2 Districts in Maine
3 Districts in Nebraska

Maine & Nebraska both allow 2 EV to the winner of the popular vote in the state, PLUS 1 EV each for the winner of each Electoral District. Not sure how he reaches his state totals, though. If he already works bottom-up by district it would mean just separating those projections. If he only works by state totals then he'd have to do those state total (thus, my count of 50 states) plus five districts.
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Old 16th October 2016, 11:02 AM   #293
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Not that it matters, but I don't think you get 54.

50 states
District of Columbia
2 Districts in Maine
3 Districts in Nebraska

Maine & Nebraska both allow 2 EV to the winner of the popular vote in the state, PLUS 1 EV each for the winner of each Electoral District. Not sure how he reaches his state totals, though. If he already works bottom-up by district it would mean just separating those projections. If he only works by state totals then he'd have to do those state total (thus, my count of 50 states) plus five districts.
I got to 54 by not counting Maine and Nebraska as states: the state result is simply the (weighted) sum of the results in the congressional districts. So I didn't count the state as a separate probability distribution. Well, if there are fluctuations in turnout between the districts the sum is again not so simple... But, of course, I don't know how Nate models it, this is just how I think he does.
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Old 16th October 2016, 04:27 PM   #294
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Whoa!
Alaska Dem party has prez race in AK within 1 pt
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Old 17th October 2016, 06:04 AM   #295
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Is it happening?

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Old 17th October 2016, 06:23 AM   #296
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This is the most conservative Clinton win I can come up with, and I think it's going to be hard for Trump to be able to beat that. IMO, if Clinton takes PA, it's over.

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Old 17th October 2016, 06:29 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
This is the most conservative Clinton win I can come up with, and I think it's going to be hard for Trump to be able to beat that. IMO, if Clinton takes PA, it's over.

http://www.270towin.com/presidential...maps/3nWw2.png
Pretty much. And the race in TEXAS is closer than it is in Pennsylvania.
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Old 17th October 2016, 06:36 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Is it happening?

No, but I'll take it. The Dems can head-fake into Atlanta and not waste a cent. Michelle Obama speaking to a large black audience would be a good move. She gets national coverage wherever she goes, and Georgia blacks could use some motivation. Plus... all those dark faces scare the Breitbarties.

I think if Obama dropped a Tweet, you could get a few well-known Georgians up there. Biggest rally of the year: Ali's wife & kids, Herschel Walker, MLK's and Coretta's kids, the ghost of Ray Charles, Mr. & Mrs. James Earl Carter,... and that about exhausts my knowledge of famous Georgians.
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Old 17th October 2016, 06:39 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
No, but I'll take it. The Dems can head-fake into Atlanta and not waste a cent. Michelle Obama speaking to a large black audience would be a good move. She gets national coverage wherever she goes, and Georgia blacks could use some motivation. Plus... all those dark faces scare the Breitbarties.

I think if Obama dropped a Tweet, you could get a few well-known Georgians up there. Biggest rally of the year: Ali's wife & kids, Herschel Walker, MLK's and Coretta's kids, the ghost of Ray Charles, Mr. & Mrs. James Earl Carter,... and that about exhausts my knowledge of famous Georgians.
It's not just Georgia the Dems are head-faking into. Bernie and Chelsea are campaigning in Arizona this week. With the Orange Menace returning to the conspiratorial white identity politics that delivered his plurality in the primaries, there's an embarrassment of opportunities for the Dems to go after.
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Old 17th October 2016, 06:43 AM   #300
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
No, but I'll take it. The Dems can head-fake into Atlanta and not waste a cent. Michelle Obama speaking to a large black audience would be a good move. She gets national coverage wherever she goes, and Georgia blacks could use some motivation. Plus... all those dark faces scare the Breitbarties.

I think if Obama dropped a Tweet, you could get a few well-known Georgians up there. Biggest rally of the year: Ali's wife & kids, Herschel Walker, MLK's and Coretta's kids, the ghost of Ray Charles, Mr. & Mrs. James Earl Carter,... and that about exhausts my knowledge of famous Georgians.
Well according to 538, Hillary has over double the chance of winning Georgia that she does of losing the whole election and that's without factoring in that poll.
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Old 17th October 2016, 07:41 AM   #301
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NYT: 90%
538: 87%
Daily Kos: 96%
HuffPo: 93%
PredictWise: 91%
PEC: 98%

Last edited by Tony Stark; 17th October 2016 at 07:43 AM.
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Old 17th October 2016, 08:35 AM   #302
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
It's not just Georgia the Dems are head-faking into. Bernie and Chelsea are campaigning in Arizona this week. With the Orange Menace returning to the conspiratorial white identity politics that delivered his plurality in the primaries, there's an embarrassment of opportunities for the Dems to go after.
And it was just announced Michelle Obama is coming on Thursday.
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Old 17th October 2016, 08:46 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
And it was just announced Michelle Obama is coming on Thursday.
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I AGREE
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Old 17th October 2016, 08:49 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
And it was just announced Michelle Obama is coming on Thursday.
So if you know that he's a tranny?
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Old 18th October 2016, 11:28 AM   #305
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This could get embarrassing.

Texas:

WaPo/Survey Monkey (10/8-10/16):
Donald: 48%
Clinton: 46%

University of Houston (10/7-10/15):
Donald: 41%
Clinton 38%


Texas is trending into being a battleground state.
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Old 18th October 2016, 11:46 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
So if you know that he's a tranny?
It's probably best that the GOP didn't put up a credible candidate like Baron Frankenfurter.
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Old 18th October 2016, 09:30 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by slyjoe View Post
And it was just announced Michelle Obama is coming on Thursday.
Did you see her speech in New Hampshire? I may write in MO on my ballot.
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Old 18th October 2016, 10:53 PM   #308
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According to 538, the following red states (per 2012 results) are closer than Pennsylvania (D+7.7), a state that Donald has to win:

North Carolina: D+3.4
Arizona: D+0.8
Georgia: R+2.5
Alaska: R+4.0
Missouri: R+4.1
Texas: R+5.8
South Carolina: R+6.0
Indiana: R+6.1
Kansas: R+6.8
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Old 19th October 2016, 04:24 AM   #309
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Hillary +5 in new Arizona poll.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/...poll/92390100/
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Old 27th October 2016, 01:18 PM   #310
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538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
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Old 27th October 2016, 01:30 PM   #311
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Originally Posted by Buckaroo View Post
538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
It is for me. I already voted.

But, I'll get my wife to the polls, too.
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Old 27th October 2016, 01:37 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by Buckaroo View Post
538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
I've been expressing my concerns but I've been assured that Hillary is a nailed on certainty and that any apparent increase in Trump's electoral chances is just statistical noise.
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Old 27th October 2016, 01:59 PM   #313
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Originally Posted by Buckaroo View Post
538: 82.9%, 17.0%. Steady decrease from a week and a half ago, when we were at 88.1, 11.9. And it keeps dropping. Not good. I really wish people would stop saying that the election is over.
I agree about overconfidence, but everybody was predicting that the race would tighten a little. Let's presume the drop continues at it's presence rate of five percent a week. On election day, Hilary would have a 75% chance of winning.
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Old 27th October 2016, 02:06 PM   #314
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I agree about overconfidence, but everybody was predicting that the race would tighten a little. Let's presume the drop continues at it's presence rate of five percent a week. On election day, Hilary would have a 75% chance of winning.
Which would make a Trump victory a low probability/high consequence event -- without the low probability.
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Last edited by Buckaroo; 27th October 2016 at 02:17 PM.
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Old 27th October 2016, 02:13 PM   #315
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I've been expressing my concerns but I've been assured that Hillary is a nailed on certainty and that any apparent increase in Trump's electoral chances is just statistical noise.
Which it was when you were doing your chicken little act. Now we have a longer time base and it's tighten a couple of points, tomorrow it could go the other way however.
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Old 27th October 2016, 02:17 PM   #316
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The % chance of winning is a weird thing to discuss. Voters are not pachinko balls, the behaviour is not actually random. It only seems like it in aggregate of looking at millions of people who are not us, because we are looking at them in aggregate. Similarly with the maps of "if only (group) voted" data. It's intellectually onanistic tea leaf reading.

I'm not a statistician, I studied anthropology in college. Which is also intellectually onanistic if you do it wrong. And if you do it right, now that I think about it.

We know some people will vote but never know how many. That's the first thing that looks random but isn't, it's predictable-within-range output of a chaotic system. I failed to vote due to operator error in 08 (my secret shame, I'm admitting it in public for the first time ever) because I had a Gilligan's Island adventure. I literally left the house expecting to be home for bedtime, and didn't come home for a week. I was supposed to kick scenery off a truck and drive away, but the build was so behind I couldn't do it. I talked the guy into turning in the moving truck locally and I'd take Greyhound home later, called the wife, bought socks, toothbrush and underpants at Target and moved into a random bed for the week.

Totally didn't fill in my ballot before I left. :shame:

So I'm a chaotic particle. But not really random, because in aggregate we know some number of voters within a measurable and predictable range will skip, avoid or miss voting for any of myriad reasons. But because voting or blowing it off is decision based behavior, it isn't random. Random would be dumping the voters in the pachinko machine, with no difference between doing it today or tomorrow. It's decontextualized from the motives and behaviours of people that change in response to events and conditions.

I think the 72 hours before the election, the last media /social network feeding frenzy cycle, will impact the election more than the last 72 days. I fear what all the various players have waiting for the opportune moment, because I suspect a half dozen different political and geopolitical players have cards on the table. So some dramatic strategic play or another by assange or Putin or the Times of London or ISIL could bring out or burn out a significant number of people.

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Old 27th October 2016, 02:42 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by Garrison View Post
Which it was when you were doing your chicken little act. Now we have a longer time base and it's tighten a couple of points, tomorrow it could go the other way however.
Well I pointed out that it was following a similar trajectory, sharp drop, a rumble along the bottom followed by a steady move upwards. Looks like we have the same again. But by all means call me chicken little
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Old 27th October 2016, 02:46 PM   #318
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You just don'e get the Britex and a US Presedential election are apples and oranges. Many more factors at play.
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Old 27th October 2016, 02:51 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Well I pointed out that it was following a similar trajectory, sharp drop, a rumble along the bottom followed by a steady move upwards. Looks like we have the same again. But by all means call me chicken little
And you are still doing nothing but guessing, there's nothing to stop the trend reversing over the next few days, but hey if you need to cling to the hopes of a Trump victory go right ahead.
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Old 27th October 2016, 03:20 PM   #320
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Note that Silver's model is the only one below 90% (others are as high as 98% and 99%) and at this time in 2012 he only had Obama at 75%.

I'm not even a little bit worried.

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