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Tags 2016 elections , donald trump , hillary clinton , political predictions , prediction thread

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Old 4th November 2016, 01:06 PM   #1
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Predict The Electoral College

It's simple: Record your prediction for the Electoral College results of the Presidential Election (currently scheduled for November 8).

Break it down by state if you want. Go ahead and predict the popular vote as well. Pro/anti-candidate arguments aren't required because we have four thousand other active threads for that.

Here's CNN's Interactive Map to help in your calculations.

I'm going to predict:

Clinton - 303
Trump - 235

I gave Clinton Florida and Nevada. I gave Trump half of Maine, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
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Old 4th November 2016, 01:10 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
It's simple: Record your prediction for the Electoral College results of the Presidential Election (currently scheduled for November 8).

Break it down by state if you want. Go ahead and predict the popular vote as well. Pro/anti-candidate arguments aren't required because we have four thousand other active threads for that.

Here's CNN's Interactive Map to help in your calculations.

I'm going to predict:

Clinton - 303
Trump - 235

I gave Clinton Florida and Nevada. I gave Trump half of Maine, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
I'm going to swap North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida. I think Clinton will get NC, and NH while Trump carries Florida. There's all sorts of crazy in Florida.
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Old 4th November 2016, 01:14 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by plague311 View Post
I'm going to swap North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida. I think Clinton will get NC, and NH while Trump carries Florida. There's all sorts of crazy in Florida.

If Clinton takes NC, she sweeps the board. Still, if there's a state that's proven it has no problem putting its thumb on the scale for the Republican candidate, it's Florida.
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Old 4th November 2016, 01:16 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
If Clinton takes NC, she sweeps the board. Still, if there's a state that's proven it has no problem putting its thumb on the scale for the Republican candidate, it's Florida.
I think NC has outdone Florida for putting its thumb on the scale for the Republican candidate. Is it still legal to vote if you're a minority there or is the one polling place still open?
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Old 4th November 2016, 01:19 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
If Clinton takes NC, she sweeps the board. Still, if there's a state that's proven it has no problem putting its thumb on the scale for the Republican candidate, it's Florida.
It is going to be harder to do then in 2000,since Florida is being so closely watched.
And if it goes to court, there will be not be an early surrender by the Dems as in 2000.They will fight it out to the bitter end.
BTW both sides are lawyering up ...just in case.
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Old 4th November 2016, 04:57 PM   #6
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I'm going to say Clinton gets between 310-320 EV

https://twitter.com/skepticink/statu...03612023881728

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Old 4th November 2016, 05:12 PM   #7
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I'm with 322-216.
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Old 4th November 2016, 05:29 PM   #8
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I think Clinton will get more than 270.

(I think Puppycow won a similar prediction thread in 2012. Nate Silver's model was spot-on. I over-estimated Romney support.)
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Old 4th November 2016, 06:03 PM   #9
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This is good news.
BREAKING: A federal judge in North Carolina has ruled that the state illegally dropped voters from registration lists & must restore them.
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Old 4th November 2016, 06:10 PM   #10
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Clinton about 290
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Old 4th November 2016, 06:11 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Not sure how much this will help giving the time frame, but it shows which party is really into "voter fraud".
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Old 4th November 2016, 06:18 PM   #12
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Clinton 272-266.
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Old 4th November 2016, 06:28 PM   #13
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Clinton 301.
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Old 4th November 2016, 07:16 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
I'm with 322-216.
+1
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Old 4th November 2016, 07:52 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
I'm with 322-216.

I hope she wins by a comfortable margin because then the election will just be over. I think it's too optimistic, though. Nate Silver's only giving her 290.
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Old 4th November 2016, 08:05 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
I hope she wins by a comfortable margin because then the election will just be over. I think it's too optimistic, though. Nate Silver's only giving her 290.
I think that's damned impressive for a candidate that is only going to win one demographic group: white men.
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Old 4th November 2016, 08:07 PM   #17
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I have gazed into my crystal ball:

New Hampshire: Exit polls start showing Clinton with an early lead, but then somehow Trump starts making a big comeback and nobody knows why. In the end it isn’t enough. Clinton wins by a hair.

North Carolina: The Good Ole Boys bring it home for Trump.

Florida: The weirdos come out of the woodwork to give Trump a slight edge.

Ohio: Trump takes Ohio early and the news networks can’t shut up about how Ohio always determines the election.

Iowa: Farmer’s wives have been telling pollsters they support Trump because doing otherwise would ostracize them in their community and enrage their husbands, but when alone in the booth and having to choose between a cursing, misogynistic, sexual harasser and abuser who denigrates women and the first woman president, their finger “accidentally” checks the box for Clinton. However, many others who don't like Trump but can't bring themselves to vote for Clinton, just select the option for a straight Republican ticket to avoid have to directly vote for either. Trump comes out ahead.

Arizona: Trump wins after some skirmishes at the polls between whites and Hispanics.

Nevada: As the early results start showing Trump swinging all the swing states, at least one person shows up at the polls to ask if they can change their earlier Johnson vote to Trump. The Democrat ground game gets people to the polls and Clinton takes it by a tiny margin.

Trumps demands recounts in Nevada and New Hampshire and (for no reason) Pennsylvania. Clinton counters with a demand for recounts in Florida, Maine, and maybe Iowa. The recounts that are allowed don’t change any results.

Clinton wins 272 to 266.


(I'm not splitting the million dollars with you, Shemp.)
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Old 4th November 2016, 08:20 PM   #18
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Wait. I forgot I gave Nevada to Clinton. So it's 278 to 260.

(I was actually going to share the MDC prize with you, Shemp. Believe me. Don't you understand sarcasm?)
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Old 4th November 2016, 08:48 PM   #19
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I'll be holding a press conference when I'll explain all. Be sure to stay tuned for the news. It will be held in the Foolmewunz Ballroom of the Grand Foolmewunz Tower, ahead of schedule and under budget.
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Old 4th November 2016, 09:28 PM   #20
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Clinton: 258
Trump: 280
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Old 4th November 2016, 10:29 PM   #21
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For those not following, there is a Friday night massacre of Trump's NV prospects underway...
Looks like the polls are going to further off than in 2012. Mostly due to a flood of "low propensity" Hispanic voters.
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Old 4th November 2016, 10:37 PM   #22
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Clinton: 321
Trump: 216

One faithless elector for Evan McMullin.
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Old 5th November 2016, 01:01 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Tank View Post
Clinton: 258
Trump: 280
What swing states does Trump take to get that high?
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Old 5th November 2016, 03:40 AM   #24
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Trump 308
Hillary 230

Trump takes all the swing states, Colorado and Michigan and Virginia due to fears of, or actual ISIS attacks and a yet further rehashing of the emails nonsense.
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Old 5th November 2016, 04:07 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Trump 308
Hillary 230

Trump takes all the swing states, Colorado and Michigan and Virginia due to fears of, or actual ISIS attacks and a yet further rehashing of the emails nonsense.
I have it Trump 310, Clinton 228. The heat of passion and a fat FBI finger on the scale win the day. Agreed there will be a Monday scare, Faux News or real.
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Old 5th November 2016, 06:06 AM   #26
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Sorry - there are no actual active "general election stuff" threads of a non-partisan nature.

I got sent this by two different people, on the right and left.

It's actually pretty interesting in a What Actually Makes America Great sort of way.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/gal...000683?slide=0
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Old 5th November 2016, 08:26 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
What swing states does Trump take to get that high?
http://i.imgur.com/orVDGyn.png
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Old 5th November 2016, 08:27 AM   #28
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If you have Donald winning Nevada, you're going to need to revise that prediction. He's activated hidden voters but not in the manner he was hoping for.
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Old 5th November 2016, 08:50 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by mumblethrax View Post
Clinton: 321
Trump: 216

One faithless elector for Evan McMullin.
There's a faithless Democratic elector in my state who says he won't vote for Clinton.
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Old 5th November 2016, 09:29 AM   #30
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
There's a faithless Democratic elector in my state who says he won't vote for Clinton.
“I hope it comes down to a swing vote and it’s me,” he said. “Good. She ain’t getting it. Maybe it’ll wake this country up.”

I've read this "wake the country up" in many different ways, by many
different people.

What the hell are they talking about?
Wake them up to what?

Obstructionism for attention's sake.
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Old 5th November 2016, 10:03 AM   #31
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It's almost midnight (here) on the 5th.

Based on the current RCP map, showing 216-164 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

Clinton will pick up the following:

*NH 4
ME - 2
ME2 - 1
PA - 20
MI - 16
NC - 15
FL - 29
CO - 9
NM - 5
NV - 6

Hillary Clinton - 323
Donald Trump - 215


Clinton might get +1 in NE 2. There hasn't been a poll there since forever, but while they have Bernie doing the midwestern states, the Dems are skipping it. I guess they think Bernie delivers more in IA, CO, AZ, NV. He had dedicated supporters in all of them, particularly NV as we all should recall.


*NH polls... don't believe the Trump surge. It's a dead heat, not a Trump lead. Gravis Marketing and another even worse poll (American Research) are the only reason Trump's showing a lead in the RCP average. I believe that how goes NH also goes ME2.
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Old 5th November 2016, 10:06 AM   #32
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ETA: Like Silver, Rasmussen, Fox, et al I reserve the right to adjust those numbers as more polling becomes available.
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Old 5th November 2016, 10:27 AM   #33
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IIRC, the electoral college does not actually have to vote for who the majority of their state votes for. Usually they do. But this may be a very interesting test of that discipline.

(FYI: Trump will not take Colorado. People here are so pissed that the GOP cancelled its caucuses and just chose Cruz that we even have amendments on the ballot this year to force presidential primaries each year, and allow independents to participate in them).
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Old 5th November 2016, 10:36 AM   #34
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Whoa!
Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.
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Old 5th November 2016, 11:09 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Trump 308
Hillary 230

Trump takes all the swing states, Colorado and Michigan and Virginia due to fears of, or actual ISIS attacks and a yet further rehashing of the emails nonsense.
Luckily, I know you're joking.

319 Hilary
219 Trump
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Old 5th November 2016, 11:33 AM   #36
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Just to be different

328 Hilary
210 Trump

Trump gets ohio.
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Old 5th November 2016, 11:38 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by snoop_doxie View Post
“I hope it comes down to a swing vote and it’s me,” he said. “Good. She ain’t getting it. Maybe it’ll wake this country up.”

I've read this "wake the country up" in many different ways, by many
different people.

What the hell are they talking about?
Wake them up to what?

Obstructionism for attention's sake.
If, as seems likely, he's the son of this guy the apple hasn't fallen far from the tree.
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Old 5th November 2016, 08:07 PM   #38
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Changing my vote to Clinton: 360, Trump: 177, one faithless elector (in light of Trebuchet's comment, I'll decline to specify who for).

Not the most likely outcome, but there's a nice little cluster of relatively likely outcomes around there, and nobody is covering anything that far out. Also, a little wishful thinking never hurt anyone (except for the millions of people it's killed).
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Old 5th November 2016, 08:30 PM   #39
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269 to 269, and it goes to the Thunderdome.
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Old 5th November 2016, 08:43 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
269 to 269, and it goes to the Thunderdome.
And then we get to find out who really runs Bartertown.
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