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Tags 2016 elections , donald trump , hillary clinton , political predictions , prediction thread

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Old 6th November 2016, 05:18 AM   #41
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Clinton 317. The get out the vote ground game here in Florida will cause her to out perform the polls. Same with Nevada and North Carolina.
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Old 6th November 2016, 08:39 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Luckily, I know you're joking.

319 Hilary
219 Trump
Not really. I'm worried that at some point in the next 24 hours that something will drop which will skew things decisively and finally in Trump's direction.
  • A successful terrorist attack on the US, claimed by ISIS or another Islamic terrorist organisation
  • The FBI claiming that they have foiled such an attack
  • More FBI leaks and relevations regarding the emails - all nonsense or irrelevant
  • A story in the media detailing horrible crimes committed by the Clintons - maybe allegations of child molestation

Of course nothing seems to damage Trump permanently.
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Old 6th November 2016, 12:30 PM   #43
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I'm going for the optimistic scenario.
Hillary 324
Orangutan 208
McMullin 6

Hillary wins all of ME, NH, OH, NV, AZ, and NE2.
Orangutan wins FL
McMullin wins Utah

It's depressing that the optimistic scenario is not simply 538-0.

And my apologies to a whole primate species.
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Old 6th November 2016, 12:44 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
I'm going for the optimistic scenario.
Hillary 324
Orangutan 208
McMullin 6

Hillary wins all of ME, NH, OH, NV, AZ, and NE2.
Orangutan wins FL
McMullin wins Utah

It's depressing that the optimistic scenario is not simply 538-0.

And my apologies to a whole primate species.
You misspelled "orangeutan".
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Old 6th November 2016, 12:46 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Not really. I'm worried that at some point in the next 24 hours that something will drop which will skew things decisively and finally in Trump's direction.
[list][*]A successful terrorist attack on the US, claimed by ISIS or another Islamic terrorist organisation.........
Why would this impact on Clinton? She's not in charge of anything at the moment, and is rather occupied. She couldn't really be blamed for any such security lapse.
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Old 6th November 2016, 01:02 PM   #46
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Why would this impact on Clinton? She's not in charge of anything at the moment, and is rather occupied. She couldn't really be blamed for any such security lapse.
No, but things like terrorist attacks play into the hands of candidates that play the "law and order" card, in this case Trump. Specifically, a terrorist attack clearly shows that all those evil muslims must be deported at once. Even if the attack was not made by a muslim, it's still the muslims' fault. Isn't that crystal clear?
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Old 6th November 2016, 01:31 PM   #47
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Well, if the FBI foils such an attack, it may not have much of an effect on the voting public.

Setting that aside though, I read a statistic that of the 200+ million eligible voters in the US, only around 57% voted in the 2012 election, or around 115 million (I'm estimating; not doing actual math here, FYI). I'm guessing that this election will barely top 50%, despite exhortations to vote from President Obama and other members of both political parties, because people are just too disillusioned with this election cycle in general to bother. I'd love to be proved wrong on that, by the way. Given that, we've already had around half of the people who will vote turn in their ballots thanks to early voting, meaning that this Tuesday will not have as much of an effect as one might otherwise think (nearly 40 million early votes have been cast already). There would have to be something drastic, like a nuclear bomb being dropped somewhere in CONUS, for people to flock so much to Trump at this point, I think.

I don't really have a prediction, per se; I do think Clinton will top 300 EVs and will win the election, but at this point I wouldn't want to predict which state will go to who. I did see something that said South Carolina might possibly be in play, but who the hell knows at this point. So, to cleanse the palate of all you disillusioned voters out there, I give you... EPIC RAP BATTLES OF HISTORY: HILLARY CLINTON VS. DONALD TRUMP!!!

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I AGREE
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Old 6th November 2016, 02:36 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by d4m10n View Post
I'm going to say Clinton gets between 310-320 EV
Electronvolts?
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Old 6th November 2016, 02:40 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
No, but things like terrorist attacks play into the hands of candidates that play the "law and order" card, in this case Trump. Specifically, a terrorist attack clearly shows that all those evil muslims must be deported at once. Even if the attack was not made by a muslim, it's still the muslims' fault. Isn't that crystal clear?
About as clear as why using the wrong computer to send emails is the end of the world when Hillary does it, but not when Colin Powell or Jeb Bush do the exact same thing.
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Old 6th November 2016, 04:04 PM   #50
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I'm gonna say Clinton with 323. She gets FL, NV, and even NC. She loses OH and IA.
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Old 6th November 2016, 04:07 PM   #51
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Orangutan 208
...
And my apologies to a whole primate species.
Was that the Bornean or Sumatran Orangutan species you slandered?
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Old 6th November 2016, 05:49 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Not really. I'm worried that at some point in the next 24 hours that something will drop which will skew things decisively and finally in Trump's direction.
  • A successful terrorist attack on the US, claimed by ISIS or another Islamic terrorist organisation
  • The FBI claiming that they have foiled such an attack
  • More FBI leaks and relevations regarding the emails - all nonsense or irrelevant
  • A story in the media detailing horrible crimes committed by the Clintons - maybe allegations of child molestation

Of course nothing seems to damage Trump permanently.
We can take FBI email leaks off the list.
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Old 6th November 2016, 07:10 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by RecoveringYuppy View Post
Was that the Bornean or Sumatran Orangutan species you slandered?
I was not aware they were separate species. My apologies to both, in fact, to the whole genus Pongo.
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Old 6th November 2016, 07:11 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
We can take FBI email leaks off the list.
Maybe Wiener has yet another device which has emails on it, and Comey sends another letter...

(I hope not).
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Old 6th November 2016, 07:12 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
About as clear as why using the wrong computer to send emails is the end of the world when Hillary does it, but not when Colin Powell or Jeb Bush do the exact same thing.
It was actually GW Bush, when he was president. But yeah, I agree.
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Old 6th November 2016, 07:17 PM   #56
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
It's almost midnight (here) on the 5th.

Based on the current RCP map, showing 216-164 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

Clinton will pick up the following:

*NH 4
ME - 2
ME2 - 1
PA - 20
MI - 16
NC - 15
FL - 29
CO - 9
NM - 5
NV - 6

Hillary Clinton - 323
Donald Trump - 215


Clinton might get +1 in NE 2. There hasn't been a poll there since forever, but while they have Bernie doing the midwestern states, the Dems are skipping it. I guess they think Bernie delivers more in IA, CO, AZ, NV. He had dedicated supporters in all of them, particularly NV as we all should recall.


*NH polls... don't believe the Trump surge. It's a dead heat, not a Trump lead. Gravis Marketing and another even worse poll (American Research) are the only reason Trump's showing a lead in the RCP average. I believe that how goes NH also goes ME2.
Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
ETA: Like Silver, Rasmussen, Fox, et al I reserve the right to adjust those numbers as more polling becomes available.
Ohio may be coming home. Donnie is making fun of Jay Z for a reason. He and Beyonce and LeBron got out a lot of support. Black voters are being called home by the Obamas, too.

I am thinking of adding 19 to Hillary's column. I'll let you know at the press conference at the New Bigly Great Foolmewunz Resort and Casino.
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Old 6th November 2016, 08:54 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
More FBI leaks and relevations regarding the emails - all nonsense or irrelevant.
Well, there was a revelation from the FBI but not what Don the Con hoped for. The email issue is dead, although such a late news bulletin probably won't have much effect.
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Old 6th November 2016, 08:58 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
I've noticed you link to Twitter a lot. I just read an article that says a lot (~15%) of Twitter posts are from bots, not people. Ya gotta be careful.
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Old 6th November 2016, 08:58 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Well, there was a revelation from the FBI but not what Don the Con hoped for. The email issue is dead, although such a late news bulletin probably won't have much effect.
Well, the net effect could be based on:

22 million people had cast advance votes BEFORE the Comey Sandbag-agram.
11.4 million more have voted since then

The GOP may have gotten their window to preserve the House and Senate. They still leave Trump struggling to break 200 EV.
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It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
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Old 6th November 2016, 09:09 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
I've noticed you link to Twitter a lot. I just read an article that says a lot (~15%) of Twitter posts are from bots, not people. Ya gotta be careful.
Accounts with blue checkmarks are verified. That tweet is from Glenn Thrush Chief Political Correspondent POLITICO and Senior Staff Writer POLITICO Magazine.
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Old 6th November 2016, 09:17 PM   #61
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I may be overly optimistic on Ohio and Arizona but I think she pulls out a squeeker there and Donald may pull off Utah.
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Old 6th November 2016, 09:26 PM   #62
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No fair, Tony!!!! I wanted to be the first to call Ohio.
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It's not that liberals have become less tolerant. It's that conservatives have become more intolerable.
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Old 6th November 2016, 09:31 PM   #63
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I might flip Ohio and NC in my prediction. Major push by Clinton campaign in Ohio shows it's closer than media polling shows and her campaign has a GOTV operation. The new voter fraud supress the African American vote laws in NC have been successful.
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Old 7th November 2016, 12:51 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
We can take FBI email leaks off the list.
Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Well, there was a revelation from the FBI but not what Don the Con hoped for. The email issue is dead, although such a late news bulletin probably won't have much effect.
True, but even the admission that there's nothing new to see gets the story back in the news and if you've got enough low-information voters or people looking for the tiniest fig-leaf of a reason to vote for Trump then that may be enough.

After all, in order to explain why "there's nothing more to see here", the news agencies need to describe the "e-mails scandal" in full.

Last edited by The Don; 7th November 2016 at 12:52 AM. Reason: include SezMe in the response
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Old 7th November 2016, 01:03 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
True, but even the admission that there's nothing new to see gets the story back in the news and if you've got enough low-information voters or people looking for the tiniest fig-leaf of a reason to vote for Trump then that may be enough.

After all, in order to explain why "there's nothing more to see here", the news agencies need to describe the "e-mails scandal" in full.

For those voters who just arrived from a fourteen month tour of Venus with no communications back to the home planet? Read some of the articles or watch some of the video of this news item. None of them go into explanation or recap. It was sort of like "Germany Surrenders".

Here's the AP story.
Quote:
REIMS, France (AP) — Germany surrendered unconditionally to the Western allies and the Soviet Union at 2:41 a.m. French time today. (This was at 8:41 p.m. Eastern war time Sunday, May 6, 1945.)
The surrender took place at a little red school house that is the headquarters of Gen. Dwight D. Eisenhower.
The surrender was signed for the Supreme Allied Command by Lt. Gen. Walter Bedell Smith, chief of staff for Gen. Eisenhower.
It was also signed by Gen. Ivan Susloparov of the Soviet Union and by Gen. Francois Sevez for France.
Gen. Eisenhower was not present at the signing, but immediately afterward Gen. Alfred Jodl and his fellow delegate, Gen. Admiral Hans Georg von Friedeburg, were received by the supreme commander.
They were asked sternly if they understood the surrender terms imposed upon Germany and if they would be carried out by Germany.
They answered yes.
Germany, which began the war with a ruthless attack upon Poland, followed by successive aggressions and brutality in concentration camps, surrendered with an appeal to the victors for mercy toward the German people and armed forces.
After signing the full surrender, Gen. Jodl said he wanted to speak and received leave to do so.
"With this signature," he said in soft-spoken German, "the German people and armed forces are for better or worse delivered into the victor's hands.
"In this war, which has lasted more than five years, both have achieved and suffered more than perhaps any other people in the world."
Notice how they don't tell the reader much about the war, who started it, where there were advances and setbacks, etc.... Why? Because everyone knows the story.

Emailgate is not quite WWII, but the parallel works for me. Everyone knows all about the emails, Comey's November surprise and the accusations. All the reports are saying, with various degrees of "wow", is that Comey has now yet again reversed himself.

Remember, you're hoping (in order to win prognostication stripes) for idiots who only hear simple words to want to look for complex explanations. They don't hear that. They hear, "Hillary Guilty; Hillary Bad" or "Hillary Innocent; Hillary Not Bad"(they won't go so far as "good").

The hidden factor in all this is that most of those people had already decided and they weren't enough to give Trump the lead in the swing states. It'll be an early night on Tuesday.
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Old 7th November 2016, 01:36 AM   #66
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I sincerely hope you're right but Trump is just doubling down on it and saying it's evidence that the system is rigged and Hillary is protected.

The 'no smoke without fire' brigade are going to lap that up.

Comey has had a massive effect on this election - remember Hillary was sweeping it before his announcement. He may not have facilitated a Trump win but he has ensured a Clinton administration will be less effective by saving the Republicans asses.
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Old 7th November 2016, 01:37 AM   #67
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Incidentally, I'm far from a fan of litigation culture but surely at some stage there has to be some consequences for the constant lies that are told about Hillary?
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Old 7th November 2016, 01:39 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by Ethan Thane Athen View Post
Incidentally, I'm far from a fan of litigation culture but surely at some stage there has to be some consequences for the constant lies that are told about Hillary?
Not really. The bar for libel/slander is really high in the US for public figures.
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Old 7th November 2016, 02:12 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Not really. The bar for libel/slander is really high in the US for public figures.
Yeah, I guess you're right. That's the trouble with living in the UK, it's so ridiculously the other way here that we forget how it is in other countries.
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Old 7th November 2016, 03:37 AM   #70
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Worst case a slim Clinton win by 12 votes (275/263). This is unlikely. More likely is a serious Clinton win by over a hundred EC votes (323 to 215).
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Old 7th November 2016, 05:14 AM   #71
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In order from a as strong as reasonably possible Clinton victory to as strong as reasonably possible Trump Victory.

Scenario 1: - Hillary takes Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire. 322 to 216 win for Hillary.
Scenario 2: - Hillary takes New Hampshire and Nevada but loses either Florida or (more probably) North Carolina. 307 or 293 to 260 or 245.
Scenario 3: (And this would be my bet) - Hillary only takes New Hampshire and loses Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. 270 to 266 win for Hillary.
Scenario 4: (IMHO the only reasonably possible Trump Win) - Trump wins New Hampshire. 270 to 266 win for Trump.
Scenario 5: Extreme outlier - Upset victory for Trump in Colorado or Pennsylvania.

Possible wildcard in all scenarios: A faithless elector. Politically interesting but I don't see a scenario in which it could tip the election.
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:06 AM   #72
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OH, COME ON!
LATimes, whose poll w/ USC Dornsife has consistently shown good numbers for Trump, now sees Clinton winning 352 EVs!
What a crap poll.

ETA: The article.

Last edited by Stacko; 7th November 2016 at 08:13 AM.
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:08 AM   #73
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I may change my total to add Ohio after this weekend, but I still think there are enough loonies and single issue voters in Florida for Trump to win there.
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:09 AM   #74
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More bad news for the Orange Menace.

Quote:
An important question about the surge of early votes is whether the increased numbers represents new voters or merely “cannibalizes” the votes of people who would have turned up at the polls anyway on Election Day. To find the answer, Smith used a database he’s built to compare this year’s early voters against a list of people who voted in 2012. His conclusion: hundreds of thousands of new black and Hispanic voters are casting ballots, an ominous sign for Trump. “Of the 707,844 voters in Miami-Dade, 201,000 did not vote in 2012—and 127,000 of them are Hispanic,” he says. “Hispanic voters are over-performing their share of the electorate.”*

Among the 117,000 African Americans who voted early, 22,500 didn’t vote in 2012. “Basically, one in five blacks and one in three Hispanics didn’t vote in 2012 in Miami-Dade and have already cast a ballot,” said Smith. “I have a hard time believing that many of these first-time voters are in the Trump camp after his scorched earth campaign against immigrants and, specifically, Hispanics.”

Broadening the lens to Miami’s designated market area (which includes Broward and Monroe counties) doesn’t improve Trump’s performance. Of the area’s 1.3 million early voters, nearly 351,000 did not vote in 2012—and 47 percent are Hispanic. “The numbers are even worse for Trump,” said Smith.
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:10 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
LOL, I guess they know their poll is garbage.

Also, exactly the same as my prediction!
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:11 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
I think the LA Times political writers and pundits have always been at odds with the LAT/USC-Dornslife poll partnership. That article is not from the USC people at the Unruh Center who've been running the poll but by the regular staff.
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:15 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
That's ok, he will win Minnesota and Michigan to make up for it.
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:18 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
That's ok, he will win Minnesota and Michigan to make up for it.
Can I interest you in a bridge in Brooklyn? It's an excellent opportunity! The Eiffel Tower perhaps?
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:20 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
So just as he feared, Hispanics being bussed in from all over Florida to "vote early and vote often" in this fixed election
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Old 7th November 2016, 08:26 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Can I interest you in a bridge in Brooklyn? It's an excellent opportunity! The Eiffel Tower perhaps?
Will you accept a personal check?
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