IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags donald trump , political predictions , predictions

View Poll Results: How long will Trump last?
Withdraws before Inauguration 1 2.63%
1 week 0 0%
1 month 1 2.63%
6 months 5 13.16%
1 year or more (full-term) 23 60.53%
2 terms 5 13.16%
On Planet X, Trump elects you! 3 7.89%
Voters: 38. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
Old 21st November 2016, 04:52 AM   #1
alfaniner
Penultimate Amazing
 
alfaniner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sorth Dakonsin
Posts: 25,652
The Trump Pool

How long do you think he's going to last? Whether he withdraws, gets embroiled in a scandal, or is impeached and removed. Or, he'll serve out the full one (or two) terms.
alfaniner is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 04:58 AM   #2
alfaniner
Penultimate Amazing
 
alfaniner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Sorth Dakonsin
Posts: 25,652
I voted one month. (My original prediction is six weeks but I didn't make that an option in the poll.)
alfaniner is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 05:05 AM   #3
TofuFighter
Master Poster
 
TofuFighter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 2,697
I'm... wait... there's a vast difference between "one year or more" and "full term."
I predict 18 months, but i have spoiled my ballot due to confusion.
__________________
The "illusion of truth" effect: “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth”

Last edited by TofuFighter; 21st November 2016 at 05:07 AM.
TofuFighter is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 05:09 AM   #4
catsmate
No longer the 1
 
catsmate's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 25,753
Originally Posted by TofuFighter View Post
I'm... wait... there's a vast difference between "one year or more" and "full term."
I predict 18 months, but i have spoiled my ballot due to confusion.
Post-midterm impeachment?
__________________
As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.
catsmate is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 05:10 AM   #5
applecorped
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 20,145
Whatever the final results are the opposite will happen. Such is the accuracy of ISF.
applecorped is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 06:00 AM   #6
Tero
Master Poster
 
Tero's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: North American prairie
Posts: 2,306
But what is the opposite of 1 year? 1 week? Two terms.
__________________
The republicans are here to save us from government/socialism. Which would like to give us healthcare. But that would make us weak. And generate a lot of old people.

Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/
Tero is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 06:37 AM   #7
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18,949
I say one term. He'll realize it isn't as much fun as he expexted, but stick it out for a full term.
__________________
Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 06:40 AM   #8
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18,949
Synopsis so far: 80% of early risers on a poll of 83% Democrats, think he'll stay a full term. But there is only a 10% chance of that.
__________________
Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 06:49 AM   #9
NoahFence
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Patriot Nation
Posts: 22,131
Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
How long do you think he's going to last? Whether he withdraws, gets embroiled in a scandal, or is impeached and removed. Or, he'll serve out the full one (or two) terms.
He's apparently impervious to scandal. He'll last his whole term, assuming the country does.
NoahFence is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 06:52 AM   #10
thaiboxerken
Penultimate Amazing
 
thaiboxerken's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 31,817
Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
He's apparently impervious to scandal. He'll last his whole term, assuming the country does.
I'm not so sure about that. Republicans would be very happy to have Pence as POTUS, and will hang Trump out to dry as soon as they can find a good enough scandal.
__________________
1. He'd never do that. 2. Okay but he's not currently doing it. 3. Okay but he's not currently technically doing it. 4. Okay but everyone does it. 5. He's doing it, we can't stop him, no point in complaining about it. 6. We all knew he was going to do it which... makes it okay somehow. 7. It's perfectly fine that's he's doing it.
thaiboxerken is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 07:44 AM   #11
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
 
Upchurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 32,519
Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
How long do you think he's going to last? Whether he withdraws, gets embroiled in a scandal, or is impeached and removed. Or, he'll serve out the full one (or two) terms.
Hasn't he already had a dozen scandals or so before the election and his base didn't care one wit?
__________________
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes.
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.
Upchurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 07:56 AM   #12
sts60
Illuminator
 
sts60's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 3,744
Well, the folks who voted against corrupt Clinton seem to be OK with a President who views the Executive Office as part of his business. It's corruption as an essential part of the Presidency, so thoroughly integrated into the role that you can't see the rotten trees for the forest.

His prospective National Security Adviser's taking classified briefings while representing foreign interests is strictly penny-ante stuff by comparison. (Of course, as an employee of a Federal contractor I'd be bounced out on my ear in a heartbeat for stuff like this, but nobody voted for me.)

Last edited by sts60; 21st November 2016 at 08:34 AM. Reason: Typo
sts60 is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 08:02 AM   #13
casebro
Penultimate Amazing
 
casebro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 18,949
A President's assets are supposedly placed in a Blind Trust. He is not supposed to know what he is invested in. That is to make it more difficult to have conflicts of interest. Supposedly.
__________________
Any sufficiently advanced idea is indistinguishable from idiocy to those who don't actually understanding the concept.
casebro is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 08:09 AM   #14
Upchurch
Papa Funkosophy
 
Upchurch's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 32,519
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
A President's assets are supposedly placed in a Blind Trust. He is not supposed to know what he is invested in. That is to make it more difficult to have conflicts of interest. Supposedly.
That's done by tradition, rather than by law. Trump doesn't have to put his assets in a blind trust and, in fact, isn't.

Thank goodness his base is so concerned about political corruption, right? Right?
__________________
"There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact." -- Sherlock Holmes.
"It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled." -- Mark Twain, maybe.
Upchurch is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 08:18 AM   #15
DreadNiK
A typical atypical
 
DreadNiK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 909
you are assuming they even understand what it is, his son certainly didn't seem to...

they probably hear 'blind trust' and think 'that's probably some dumb liberal thing, I don't want my president blindly trusting anything!'
__________________
Question Everything - Just not always out loud...

Pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate
DreadNiK is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 09:03 AM   #16
Seismosaurus
Philosopher
 
Seismosaurus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 6,092
I don't think he'll ever quit the role, but I think he'll quit being the actual President quite quickly.

Reports have it that President Obama gave him a tour of the White House and talked him through all the duties the President has. Allegedly, Trump was rather taken aback by just how much work it involves.

I think he probably imagined that being President was mostly about state dinners, flying around on Air Force One, opening things, and giving speeches. Donald likes all of those things, especially giving speeches. You could tell during the campaign that he really loved the adulation the crowds gave him, and I think he's always going to love the feeling of being "the boss".

But I think that after a month or two of the actual workload, he will delegate pretty much all of his Presidential duties to his staff and Pence. He'll rubber stamp whatever they decide whilst taking public credit and concentrate on doing the things he likes.

I also think he'll bilk as much money as he can out of the Presidency, which will lead to various scandals along those lines. But so what? Republicans only care about such things when Democrats do them, so that simply won't be an issue to them. The idea that they will impeach him for any kind of financial corruption is laughable. Donald will probably boast about it when he's caught and say it's because he's smart.

So one full term. Very possibly two; that depends on what the Democrats do in the next few years.
__________________
Promise of diamonds in eyes of coal
She carries beauty in her soul
Seismosaurus is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 09:59 AM   #17
Modified
Philosopher
 
Modified's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 6,985
Originally Posted by Seismosaurus View Post
...
I completely agree. Trump will do little actual work. If he remains alive he will be unaffected by the numerous minor and major scandals to come.

The next election should be interesting. Have we learned that lying the majority of the time, insulting your opponents, and generally acting like a bratty six-year-old is the way to get elected? Will the candidates four years from now be Trump clones, or pretend to be, in order to get elected?
Modified is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 10:15 AM   #18
Beerina
Sarcastic Conqueror of Notions
 
Beerina's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 30,694
Should have a choice:

[X] One year or more, but less than a full term.

I put 6 months, but really feel 2 years.
__________________
"Great innovations should not be forced [by way of] slender majorities." - Thomas Jefferson

The government should nationalize it! Socialized, single-payer video game development and sales now! More, cheaper, better games, right? Right?
Beerina is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 10:23 AM   #19
NoahFence
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Patriot Nation
Posts: 22,131
Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I'm not so sure about that. Republicans would be very happy to have Pence as POTUS, and will hang Trump out to dry as soon as they can find a good enough scandal.
Making the office of the President pay for play isn't big enough?

(Diplomats at his hotel)
NoahFence is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 10:24 AM   #20
NoahFence
Banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Patriot Nation
Posts: 22,131
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
A President's assets are supposedly placed in a Blind Trust. He is not supposed to know what he is invested in. That is to make it more difficult to have conflicts of interest. Supposedly.
And Trump will do just that.


NoahFence is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 10:27 AM   #21
Aepervius
Non credunt, semper verificare
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Sigil, the city of doors
Posts: 14,581
Originally Posted by alfaniner View Post
How long do you think he's going to last? Whether he withdraws, gets embroiled in a scandal, or is impeached and removed. Or, he'll serve out the full one (or two) terms.
I voted 1 full term, then people wise up and vote either for far worst than him, or back in establishment.
Aepervius is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 10:38 AM   #22
fuelair
Banned
 
fuelair's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 58,581
Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
That's done by tradition, rather than by law. Trump doesn't have to put his assets in a blind trust and, in fact, isn't.

Thank goodness his base is so concerned about political corruption, right? Right?
His base is corrupt and stupid - evidence: they believe in him!!!!!!!
fuelair is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 10:40 AM   #23
Trebuchet
Penultimate Amazing
 
Trebuchet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Port Townsend, Washington
Posts: 32,426
Two terms, if not more. The only way he leaves early is feet first from natural causes.
__________________
Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.
Trebuchet is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 11:11 AM   #24
The Atheist
The Grammar Tyrant
 
The Atheist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 29,945
Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Two terms, if not more. The only way he leaves early is feet first from natural causes.
That's where I am.

By the time he's deported 3 million people and allowed another 3 million people in who will vote for him (extreme screening) he'll have the numbers to stay until he croaks.
__________________
The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.
The Atheist is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st November 2016, 11:17 AM   #25
Denver
Penultimate Amazing
 
Denver's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 10,015
I voted 1 full term, though there is a definite chance for a 2nd.
__________________
Dreams inevitably lead to hideous implosions -- Invader Zim
Denver is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » USA Politics

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 04:31 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.