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Tags Emmanuel Macron , France elections , France politics , Marine Le Pen , political predictions , political speculation

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud* 0 0%
François Asselineau* 0 0%
Jacques Cheminade* 0 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0 0%
François Fillon 2 6.45%
Benoît Hamon 0 0%
Jean Lassalle 0 0%
Marine Le Pen 7 22.58%
Emmanuel Macron* 16 51.61%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon* 0 0%
Philippe Poutou* 0 0%
On planet X, Trump wins all elections 6 19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 24th April 2017, 11:02 AM   #201
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Originally Posted by fuelair View Post
NPR reporting agrees with you but they are not predicting as such. Remember November !!!
I do remember. But also I do know we are talking about different country with different system. One round versus two rounds with number of possible candidates)

It happened number of times already, so it is fairly likely iot will happen again.

Originally Posted by fuelair View Post
Is it just me or does Macron sound like the name of a Saturday morning cartoon space adventure bad guy?????????
Well, it was name of main bad guy of Strogg from Quake II/4. (C == K)
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Old 24th April 2017, 01:36 PM   #202
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
I do remember. But also I do know we are talking about different country with different system. One round versus two rounds with number of possible candidates)

It happened number of times already, so it is fairly likely iot will happen again.



Well, it was name of main bad guy of Strogg from Quake II/4. (C == K)
So, quite plausible!!!
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Old 24th April 2017, 01:51 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by fuelair View Post
So, quite plausible!!!
As is your total abuse of exclamation marks...
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Old 24th April 2017, 02:47 PM   #204
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
You'd think the polls would take that into consideration, since the EC system has been in place forever.



Her extra votes were in states she already won. One may also say that her inability to swing states in her favour was her downfall.

But this has been addressed before: small non-slave states also benefit from the electoral college.
All of that is irrelevant as France has a 1 person==1 vote system and you win by having more than the other candidate on the second round. As such poll are far more valid than the absurd EC system.
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Old 24th April 2017, 11:43 PM   #205
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Just in case we didn't notice, the Russian TV network Zvezda, controlled by the Russian Defense ministry tweeted this:

tweet.jpg
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Old 24th April 2017, 11:58 PM   #206
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Just in case we didn't notice, the Russian TV network Zvezda, controlled by the Russian Defense ministry tweeted this:

Attachment 36671
At least LePen is honest about it and is advocating closer ties with Russia, because Russia is a stalwart defender of the western civilization or something like that.

Practicing Sharia law in a particularly bad way in Chechnya, financing the Taliban and sending young men to ISIS are ignored. The fact Russia today is building its own third empire in much the same way as Germany tried some 80 years ago doesn't seem to bother her either.

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Old 25th April 2017, 02:14 AM   #207
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
All of that is irrelevant as France has a 1 person==1 vote system and you win by having more than the other candidate on the second round. As such poll are far more valid than the absurd EC system.
Maybe because France isn't composed of 50 states.
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Old 25th April 2017, 02:28 AM   #208
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
All of that is irrelevant as France has a 1 person==1 vote system and you win by having more than the other candidate on the second round. As such poll are far more valid than the absurd EC system.
That's a matter of debate, EC as designed had two important roles. First of all it was to ensure distant states with small populations were important for candidates and didn't turn into backwaters no one cared about because they brought nothing to the table. Second of all it enabled the supposedly skilled politicians to correct the mistakes of the electorate, to fight against populists.

It serves the precise opposite role nowadays, but that's not because the system per se is bad, but because subsequent changes in how it is handled (electoral votes mirror the popular vote of the state), how the electorate shifted (backwaters always vote for the same party so campaigning there is meaningless for all candidates) and how the society changed (roads, planes and telecommunications make backwaters as accessible as largest cities are) in the meantime that make it a drag on the society.

One way or another USA needs to move away from FPTP voting system to either two rounds of voting (like France) or single transferable vote (like NZ) to protect their democracy.

We're a bit offtopic though

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Old 25th April 2017, 03:19 AM   #209
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Maybe because France isn't composed of 50 states.
It isn't a question of state, but a question of the value of a single vote and the value of each EC vote between state. The number of EC voter is to my knowledge neither proportional to the state population, nor the result (except for a few state) made proportional. Which leads immediately vast swath of votes to be nil, as with winner-take-all, and thus skew election toward the state you ahve today (I am not speaking of the resulot, but skewing the elctoral pwoer toward small state).

All of that does not exists, and it has nothing to do with whether france is composed of state or not, as the same stupid system could have been done by region or by department in our country. But it was not, we have a simple 1 vote==1 person system, and proportional allocated to each candidate for presidential election.

The "US has 50 state" is irrelevant.
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Old 25th April 2017, 03:31 AM   #210
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
That's a matter of debate, EC as designed had two important roles. First of all it was to ensure distant states with small populations were important for candidates and didn't turn into backwaters no one cared about because they brought nothing to the table.
This is where we will differ philosophically. I see no reason to give more voting power to people by virtue of living in a different place. *égality* / equality of voting (each person has the same voting pwoer) is a very important principle for France, and something highly relevant to this thread. Which is why the same problem as with trump cannot happen with le Pen and that was the point I was stating before it was shifted by Arguammemnon to the US.
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Old 25th April 2017, 03:44 AM   #211
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
This is where we will differ philosophically. I see no reason to give more voting power to people by virtue of living in a different place.
There is a good reason for it: it was a crude way of ensuring everyone had to be heard by the central government. You can't deny it was effective, look at how decentralized USA is compared it to France or UK. Decentralization of power is nowadays considered a very good thing for a whole host of reasons.

There are better ways to ensure the same thing now, but the system is almost 230 years old and made for that time. It is unclear whether there were better solutions available at the time or whether these other solutions would've been effective.

You can say the reason is not good enough and that one person should always count the same for the highest reaches of government and you wouldn't be wrong, you would just have a different opinion than the founding fathers did. There is nothing wrong with that, indeed it is welcome to have as wide-reaching opinions as possible, but it is wrong to say there is "no" reason. There is a reason, which may or may not trump your considerations (I would agree it doesn't trump them for at least the past 100 years), this depends entirely on ones' opinion.

Quote:
*égality* / equality of voting (each person has the same voting pwoer) is a very important principle for France, and something highly relevant to this thread. Which is why the same problem as with trump cannot happen with le Pen and that was the point I was stating before it was shifted by Arguammemnon to the US.
The same thing can happen with LePen, just not in the same manner. Brexit happened in the same way and it was one person, one vote.

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Old 25th April 2017, 04:17 AM   #212
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Leaving aside the discussion of electoral systems (that would be for an other thread), one can't really compare this second round with Brexit or the Trump election.

In those two cases, the polls were close. While pundits considered the Remain and Clinton victories as almost certain, the polls told another story.

Now, in the runoff between Macron and Le Pen, all polls put Macron at 60% or more. That is a margin that neither Clinton nor the Remain camp had two weeks before the vote.

That doesn't mean that Le Pen can't win. Maybe the polls will move in the coming week, for whatever reason.
But as long as the margin remains as it is now, a Le Pen victory is extremely unlikely. The first round polls were fairly accurate, no reason to assume that the error on the second round polls suddenly will be 10% or more.
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:21 AM   #213
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
It isn't a question of state, but a question of the value of a single vote and the value of each EC vote between state.
...isn't that a question of state???

I mean, if the question is the value of votes between states, it's automatically a question of value, vote and STATE. France is a single state, not a federation.

Quote:
All of that does not exists, and it has nothing to do with whether france is composed of state or not, as the same stupid system could have been done by region or by department in our country.
It could've but it would've made less sense than in the US. France isn't composed of individual "countries", it's a single nation. Back when the US was formed, that wasn't the case, and the EC is a compromise to avoid... hell, you know this already.
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:24 AM   #214
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Now, in the runoff between Macron and Le Pen, all polls put Macron at 60% or more. That is a margin that neither Clinton nor the Remain camp had two weeks before the vote.
Yeah that's the encouraging part. I don't mind the right or the left, but I'd rather that the prediction of the far-right's return in the western world be wrong.
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:31 AM   #215
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
But as long as the margin remains as it is now, a Le Pen victory is extremely unlikely. The first round polls were fairly accurate, no reason to assume that the error on the second round polls suddenly will be 10% or more.
If polls were wrong by 10% for each candidate in favor of LePen, Marcon still wins with about 5% difference.

LePen can still win, but only if she uses these two weeks extremely well.

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Old 25th April 2017, 04:36 AM   #216
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
If polls were wrong by 10% for each candidate in favor of LePen, Marcon still wins with about 5% difference.

LePen can still win, but only if she uses these two weeks extremely well.

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And macron extremely poorly.
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:36 AM   #217
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
LePen can still win, but only if she uses these two weeks extremely well.
Or if uncle Vlad helps even more: Macron campaign was target of cyber attacks by spy-linked group

Quote:
The campaign of Emmanuel Macron, the favorite to win France's presidential election, has been targeted by a cyber espionage group linked by some experts to the Russian military intelligence agency GRU.

Feike Hacquebord, a researcher with security firm Trend Micro said he had found evidence that the spy group, dubbed "Pawn Storm", targeted the Macron campaign with email phishing tricks and attempts to install malware on the campaign site.

He said telltale digital fingerprints linked the Macron attacks with those last year on the U.S. Democratic National Committee (DNC) the campaign of presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, and that similar techniques were used to target German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party in April and May of 2016.
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:39 AM   #218
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
And macron extremely poorly.
And/or some nut kills some people in France.
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:39 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
And macron extremely poorly.
Yes, you're right - not every vote LePen gets comes from supporters of Macron. In fact most would come from the undecided and those who otherwise wouldn't vote.

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Old 25th April 2017, 04:44 AM   #220
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Russians probably unleashed all their finest weapons against Macron already. Filon was their potential Manchurian candidate as well, Mechelon even more so. If any of the three beat out Macron in the first round the second round was already decided in favor of Russia, the only question was to what extent.

Opinion polls show voters for all three major opponents - Melenchon, Filon and Hamon, break for Macron. Some do so 10:1 (Hamon), some 3:1 (Melenchon) and some 3:2 (Filon). If LePen just evens these out it will be an unprecedented achievement in politics, but she would still lose in the end. Melenchon or Filon coming in second after LePen was achievable, LePen beating out Macron in the finals much less so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

Barring Russians finding something new I wouldn't count on Russian May surprises much. They could still happen so Macron needs to prepare for them, but they're quite unlikely to be forthcoming. My greatest concern right now would be a repeat of Bataclan on the eve of the elections. That could reshuffle the deck, but anything short of that would be too little, too late, I think.

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Old 25th April 2017, 04:45 AM   #221
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Russians probably unleashed all their finest weapons against Macron already. Filon was their potential Manchurian candidate as well, Mechelon even more so.
Who?
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:46 AM   #222
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Russians probably unleashed all their finest weapons against Macron already. Filon was their potential Manchurian candidate as well, Mechelon even more so. If any of the three beat out Macron in the first round the second round was already decided in favor of Russia, the only question was to what extent.

Barring Russians finding something new I wouldn't count on Russian May surprises much. Prepare for them sure, but they're unlikely to be forthcoming.

McHrozni
Makes sense, let's hope this is the case.

Any news from Comey? (just kidding)
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Old 25th April 2017, 04:54 AM   #223
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Who?
Fillon, Mélenchon; in that order

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Old 25th April 2017, 04:59 AM   #224
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Fillon, Mélenchon; in that order
Hey, don't roll your eyes at me. I got them right the first time.
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Old 25th April 2017, 02:14 PM   #225
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How unexpected that the ones making the biggest issue out of the fact that Emmanuel Macron married someone who's not only 24 years older than them, but who also was their teacher, are the British. Can't wait until this nation of prudish busy bodies is out of the EU.
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Old 25th April 2017, 10:48 PM   #226
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
How unexpected that the ones making the biggest issue out of the fact that Emmanuel Macron married someone who's not only 24 years older than them, but who also was their teacher, are the British. Can't wait until this nation of prudish busy bodies is out of the EU.
I was under the impression British supported personal freedoms such being into cougars. The fact she was his teacher makes the whole thing a bit tacky, but if anyone did wrong it was her.

If the roles were reversed, if he was the teacher who married his 24 years junior student, his personality would be a bit questionable, but in this way? His sexual preferences are a bit silly, what of it?

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Old 25th April 2017, 11:56 PM   #227
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Yeah, I'm afraid bogus issues will dominate the campaign.

Blame the silly media.
As it looks for now, this will be a boring runoff: Macron is poised to win with +/- 60% of the vote, no suspense, no ratings.

So now they concentrate on idiocies like the Big Big Scandal that Macron went to a brasserie on Sunday evening to celebrate his first round victory with campaign staffers and friends. How Dare He?

Yesterday evening he was on the France 2 news, and the first five minutes of the interview were about this Big Big Scandal. We zapped away in disgust.

Meanwhile, also yesterday evening, Le Pen was on TF1, and she went full Trump with alternative facts (review in French).

I fully trust the main networks to further invent bogus issues, and shy away from the real issues about Le Pen, just to keep the race alive for the next 10 days.
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Old 26th April 2017, 12:01 AM   #228
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
I fully trust the main networks to further invent bogus issues, and shy away from the real issues about Le Pen, just to keep the race alive for the next 10 days.
They could do far, far worse than this. Imagine a series on Islamic terrorism in France and how anyone and everyone could be next and how this is the defining issue of the election, etc, etc.

That could make the race competitive, especially if Macron said three days before the election this is something the French should simply get used to, followed by two especially deadly attacks in the next two days before the election.

I hope it won't happen, but it could make the race competitive. By most account abstention and deliberately spoiled votes will be greater than the difference between Macron and Le Pen. This is the only issue that can win a significant number of votes for Le Pen.

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Old 26th April 2017, 12:15 AM   #229
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Those "sadistic" measures where critical to actually prevent Greece from following Argentina and Zimbabwe at the same time! And the only reason for anything failing is, that IMF and Eurozone weren't more strict with Greece. They were too lenient.

Greece is total and absurd mess of their own creation with so many insanities that it is small wonder they were able to cheat accounting standards for so long before reality caught up with them!

Stop blaming everybody else for Greeks own idiocy! It is their own mess and if it weren't for outside help (with conditions made to ensure actually survivable of Greece), they would by now be just black hole with nothing left but remnants of failed third-world country,
...with hot chicks and white beaches.

Spain, Italy, Greece all need a currency they can inflate like a sexdoll at a frat party. The stable Euro is screwing them.
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Old 26th April 2017, 12:22 AM   #230
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
...with hot chicks and white beaches.

Spain, Italy, Greece all need a currency they can inflate like a sexdoll at a frat party. The stable Euro is screwing them.
Because playing with ones own insignificant currency will magically save one from consequences of ones own idiocy?
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Old 26th April 2017, 12:24 AM   #231
Eddie Dane
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Yeah, I'm afraid bogus issues will dominate the campaign.

Blame the silly media.
As it looks for now, this will be a boring runoff: Macron is poised to win with +/- 60% of the vote, no suspense, no ratings.

So now they concentrate on idiocies like the Big Big Scandal that Macron went to a brasserie on Sunday evening to celebrate his first round victory with campaign staffers and friends. How Dare He?

Yesterday evening he was on the France 2 news, and the first five minutes of the interview were about this Big Big Scandal. We zapped away in disgust.

Meanwhile, also yesterday evening, Le Pen was on TF1, and she went full Trump with alternative facts (review in French).

I fully trust the main networks to further invent bogus issues, and shy away from the real issues about Le Pen, just to keep the race alive for the next 10 days.
How the hell did they spin a dinner as a scandal?

It used to be French politicians had multiple mistresses and illegitimate children and nobody cared.

No wonder TV is dying. Twitter drama is silly too, but it doesn't have that air of desperation to fill time.

The Onion nailed this years ago.
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Old 26th April 2017, 12:32 AM   #232
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Spain, Italy, Greece all need a currency they can inflate like a sexdoll at a frat party..
Either that or they can get their act together and start running their countries in a mature way. You know, in a way that makes for strong, stable economies?

The stable Euro is a godsend for them, they just have to accept their established ways won't work with it and change them to something mature. It is taking them longer than it should or was expected, but the Greeks seem to be realizing it by now. The Spanish and Italians are sure to come on board in due course.

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Old 26th April 2017, 12:34 AM   #233
Eddie Dane
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Because playing with ones own insignificant currency will magically save one from consequences of ones own idiocy?
No, but you can inflate like Zimbabwe and tourists will keep coming while you pay your good-for-nothing civil servants with your Weimar bucks.

I'm not saying it's perfect, more a way of perpetually kicking the can down the road. It's Egypt without the Islamist terror.
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Old 26th April 2017, 12:36 AM   #234
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
How the hell did they spin a dinner as a scandal?
What was done since Monday morning is link Macron's dinner at the brasserie to another bogus scandal related to Sarkozy.
After his victory in 2007, Sarkozy held a party at Fouquet's, and many celebrities were invited.

This was considered outrageous because reasons (the main one being that Fouquet's is considered "elitist").

Sarkozy even later sheepishly acknowledged that is was a mistake, that he wouldn't go back to the Fouquet's if he could rewrite history.

The silliness of all these things is killing me.
They have a neo-fascist one step away from the presidency, but hey, Macron ate a brasserie!
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Old 26th April 2017, 12:38 AM   #235
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The stable Euro is a godsend for them
Can't agree more with this.
The Euro is also a godsend for my country, Belgium.
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Old 26th April 2017, 01:01 AM   #236
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
No, but you can inflate like Zimbabwe and tourists will keep coming while you pay your good-for-nothing civil servants with your Weimar bucks.

I'm not saying it's perfect, more a way of perpetually kicking the can down the road. It's Egypt without the Islamist terror.
It's a way of ensuring the country can never get up on its feet. In other words, your base scenario is about the worst scenario under the Euro. The fact you sell this as an argument against the Euro shows just how weak your position is.

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Old 26th April 2017, 01:25 AM   #237
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Yesterday evening he was on the France 2 news, and the first five minutes of the interview were about this Big Big Scandal. We zapped away in disgust.
Then you missed the best part of interview IMO, i.e. when Macron said to the French I want to convince you not to vote against Le Pen but to vote for me and my program.

This being said I agree with you that spending 5 minutes to discuss the dinner issue was just stupid.

Beside I also notice that while in 2002 the whole left wing had decided to vote for Chirac (with only very few exceptions) this time this is not the case, as Mélenchon did not take position (and his supporters do not seem to clearly vote for Macron). Furthermore on the right side there is much less support for Macron than there was support for Chirac on the left side 15 years ago. There are even people on the right wing who say they will vote for Le Pen, like Christine Boutin (although she is certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer).
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Old 26th April 2017, 01:35 AM   #238
Eddie Dane
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It's a way of ensuring the country can never get up on its feet. In other words, your base scenario is about the worst scenario under the Euro. The fact you sell this as an argument against the Euro shows just how weak your position is.

McHrozni
Maybe, but your scenario hinges on Greece getting its **** together. Have you considered what a longshot that is?

I probably agree with you for Italy and France. Countries with significant industry, car factories, indigenously developed space rockets etc.

I could probably get through life using nothing but French and Italian products, barring consumer electronics.

But Greece?
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Old 26th April 2017, 01:44 AM   #239
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
Maybe, but your scenario hinges on Greece getting its **** together. Have you considered what a longshot that is?

I probably agree with you for Italy and France. Countries with significant industry, car factories, indigenously developed space rockets etc.

I could probably get through life using nothing but French and Italian products, barring consumer electronics.

But Greece?
If it doesn't it is stuck in a perpetual cycle of near-poverty. This is the worst-case scenario of remaining in Euro. If the country manages to get its house in order it will become better, but it can't become worse easily, perhaps even at all.
It is also, at best, the baseline of the inflating domestic currency to remain cheap for tourists, with the caveat it's very easy to do worse, but very difficult to do better.

I see this as an argument in favor of Greece keeping the Euro. Don't you?

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Old 26th April 2017, 01:53 AM   #240
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Then you missed the best part of interview IMO, i.e. when Macron said to the French I want to convince you not to vote against Le Pen but to vote for me and my program.
Smart of Macron, continue to do a positive campaign.

Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Beside I also notice that while in 2002 the whole left wing had decided to vote for Chirac (with only very few exceptions) this time this is not the case, as Mélenchon did not take position (and his supporters do not seem to clearly vote for Macron). Furthermore on the right side there is much less support for Macron than there was support for Chirac on the left side 15 years ago. There are even people on the right wing who say they will vote for Le Pen, like Christine Boutin (although she is certainly not the sharpest knife in the drawer).
Yes, the difference with 2002 is striking.
I won't further comment on Mélenchon, he is beyond despicable.

For Macron, this lukewarm support from other parties may well turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
He wants the victory (if victory there is) to be his, not one he owes to others.

If Macron manages to win very handily (well above 60%), he will be in a very strong position for the legislative elections.
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