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Tags Emmanuel Macron , France elections , France politics , Marine Le Pen , political predictions , political speculation

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud* 0 0%
François Asselineau* 0 0%
Jacques Cheminade* 0 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0 0%
François Fillon 2 6.45%
Benoît Hamon 0 0%
Jean Lassalle 0 0%
Marine Le Pen 7 22.58%
Emmanuel Macron* 16 51.61%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon* 0 0%
Philippe Poutou* 0 0%
On planet X, Trump wins all elections 6 19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 26th April 2017, 02:02 AM   #241
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
I won't further comment on Mélenchon, he is beyond despicable.
What has he (it?) been up to lately?

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Old 26th April 2017, 02:10 AM   #242
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
What has he (it?) been up to lately?

McHrozni
He is holding a vote among his supporters (the +/- 450000 people who signed up on his digital platform).

The three options proposed are:
1) vote null
2) vote for Emmanuel Macron
3) don't go to vote

The result of this consultation will be announced on May 2nd.

For a supposed leader of the left, not automatically endorsing a centrist candidate who is up against a neo-fascist is absolutely inexcusable. Hiding behind his "militants" is cowardly.

In other news, I don't like Mélenchon.
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Old 26th April 2017, 02:25 AM   #243
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
...isn't that a question of state???

I mean, if the question is the value of votes between states, it's automatically a question of value, vote and STATE. France is a single state, not a federation.



It could've but it would've made less sense than in the US. France isn't composed of individual "countries", it's a single nation. Back when the US was formed, that wasn't the case, and the EC is a compromise to avoid... hell, you know this already.
Again,the original point of this thread, and my point, was you cannot apply the surprise of trump to the french election. And so far everything said, nothing contradict my point.
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Old 26th April 2017, 02:33 AM   #244
McHrozni
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
He is holding a vote among his supporters (the +/- 450000 people who signed up on his digital platform).

The three options proposed are:
1) vote null
2) vote for Emmanuel Macron
3) don't go to vote

The result of this consultation will be announced on May 2nd.

For a supposed leader of the left, not automatically endorsing a centrist candidate who is up against a neo-fascist is absolutely inexcusable. Hiding behind his "militants" is cowardly.

In other news, I don't like Mélenchon.
I think the word "despicable" describes him quite well, yes.

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Old 26th April 2017, 03:04 AM   #245
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
He is holding a vote among his supporters (the +/- 450000 people who signed up on his digital platform).

The three options proposed are:
1) vote null
2) vote for Emmanuel Macron
3) don't go to vote

The result of this consultation will be announced on May 2nd.

For a supposed leader of the left, not automatically endorsing a centrist candidate who is up against a neo-fascist is absolutely inexcusable. Hiding behind his "militants" is cowardly.

In other news, I don't like Mélenchon.
Le Pen's economic policy is likely closer to him than Marcron's.

I see where you're coming from, but for a hard-left politician to advise people to vote for a former Rothschild banker might be a bit much to ask.
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Old 26th April 2017, 03:14 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
I see where you're coming from, but for a hard-left politician to advise people to vote for a former Rothschild banker might be a bit much to ask.
Maybe, but so is not helping him outfight a outright neo-nazi politician.

It just shows his own ideology is more important to him than the future of his country. He's a national disgrace on the level of Trump, the only difference is he wasn't voted into power (yet).

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Old 26th April 2017, 04:19 AM   #247
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Alexis Corbière, spokesman of Mélenchon, just gave a press conference.

If you can stomach it, it can be found here.

It is a surreal exercise in newspeak.

On and on he goes about how they, the "France Insoumise", are the real adversaries of Le Pen, how only they can defeat her, how they got her score down, bla bla bla ...
And what are they doing to stop her? Well, not much actually, certainly not call to vote for the only one who can stop her now. At least not for now ...
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Last edited by Firestone; 26th April 2017 at 04:22 AM.
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Old 26th April 2017, 04:19 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by Aepervius View Post
Again,the original point of this thread, and my point, was you cannot apply the surprise of trump to the french election.
I would agree on the larger point, sure, but I find it odd that you sidestepped my counter-argument on the finer point.

Anyway, Macron seems to have more than a comfortable lead. Hopefully it won't end up with another upset.
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Old 26th April 2017, 04:23 AM   #249
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
On an on he goes about how they, the "France Insoumise", are the real adversaries of Le Pen, how only they can defeat her, how they got her score down, bla bla bla ...
Pathetic. It is true enough that they got her score down by splitting the deplorable vote somewhat. I wouldn't count that as a point for them though.

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Old 27th April 2017, 03:01 AM   #250
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Quote:
The American system can be translated to France with some straightforward arithmetic. Considering the 18 French regions—13 in metropolitan France and five overseas—as analogous to American states, each one gets two senators. Maintaining the American ratio of 4.35 members of the lower chamber for each of the 36 senators, the French House of Representatives would have 157 seats. Since each region is guaranteed at least one representative in the lower house, 139 seats would be allocated on the basis of population using the method of equal proportions. Finally, each region would be weighted in the electoral college by the total number of its representatives in both chambers.

The California of the French electoral college would be Île-de-France, the region that contains Paris. With just over 12m residents, 18% of the French population, it would cast 30 of the 193 electoral votes. The runner-up would be Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, with 20 electoral votes, followed by Hauts-de-France and New Aquitaine, with 16 each. Pulling up the rear would be the island of Corsica and the five overseas regions, all but one of which would get the minimum of three votes.

Just as in the United States, a French electoral college would have negated the liberal candidate’s advantage in the popular vote. Although Mr Macron prevailed in the two biggest regions, Ms Le Pen came first in seven of the next nine. The result would be a stunning tie: the two leaders would have received 90 electoral votes each, with the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon claiming ten (all from overseas regions) and the conservative François Fillon a paltry three.

Using these rules, no candidate would have won a majority of the electoral college. As a result, under the system implemented by the 12th amendment to the United States constitution in 1804, the House of Representatives would then pick the victor, with each region getting one vote regardless of its size. Assuming that each region supported the candidate that won it, the contender supported by the majority of regions would be named president.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...daily-chart-19

Thankfully France does not have such a flawed electoral system as the US does where the victor doesn't require even a plurality, let alone a majority, of votes cast in order to win.
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Old 30th April 2017, 04:54 AM   #251
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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, who finished 6th of the first round of the presidential election has now endorsed Le Pen's candidature for the second round. Le Pen has apparently promised he would become her First Minister should she be elected.

Dupont-Aignan has a souverainist and Gaullist program. It still remains weird to see someone who proclaims being Gaullist now concluding an agreement with the heir of Pétain.

Although the opinions polls still give the advantage to Macron one cannot formally exclude a surprise next Sunday. Even a short Victory of Macron would create problems as he would then face a profoundly divided country.
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Old 30th April 2017, 08:22 AM   #252
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Originally Posted by Arcade22 View Post
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graph...daily-chart-19

Thankfully France does not have such a flawed electoral system as the US does where the victor doesn't require even a plurality, let alone a majority, of votes cast in order to win.
Nice illustration of how absurd the US system is.
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Old 30th April 2017, 08:24 AM   #253
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Dupont-Aignan has a souverainist and Gaullist program. It still remains weird to see someone who proclaims being Gaullist now concluding an agreement with the heir of Pétain.
Beyond weird. I hope the sane right will manage to oust him in the coming legislative election.

Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Although the opinions polls still give the advantage to Macron one cannot formally exclude a surprise next Sunday. Even a short Victory of Macron would create problems as he would then face a profoundly divided country.
Yes, a short Macron victory spells trouble.

That may well be the underlying reason for Mélenchon's despicable behaviour.

Last Friday he published a video on Facebook. After Trumplike self-congratulations (except that he spoke in full sentences and only used existing words), and vicious attacks against Macron, he conceded that Le Pen was "even worse". So vote for Macron?
He doesn't say it, although he hints at ... something. He won't vote Le Pen, that's for sure, and he will go to the polling station. But then?

His words: "Ce que j’irai voter, je ne vais pas le dire, mais il n’y a pas besoin d’être grand clerc pour deviner ce que je vais faire. Pourquoi je ne le dis pas ? Pour que vous puissiez rester regroupés. Pour que chacun d’entre vous, quelle que soit la décision qu’il va faire, reste en cohérence avec le vote qu’il a choisi à la présidentielle."
Translated: "How I will vote, I won't say, but you don't have to be very smart to guess what I'll do. Why don't I say it? So that you [meaning his voters in the 1st round] stay united. So that each of you, whatever he decides to do, stays coherent with his vote in the first round."

Essentially he tells his voters that each can imagine a Mélenchon to his liking, whether they vote Macron or not. Maybe that's why he used holograms during the campaign.

If Macron wins big or (god forbid) loses, Mélenchon is done. But if Macron manages only a narrow victory, Mélenchon will try to position himself as the new Mitterrand, the Chosen One who will rebuild the left from its ashes.
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Last edited by Firestone; 30th April 2017 at 08:26 AM.
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Old 30th April 2017, 11:02 AM   #254
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When I see how many French politicians, and not only on the left wing, behave while Le Pen is improving in the polls, I have the feeling to watch kids playing with matches...
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Old 30th April 2017, 12:25 PM   #255
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I'm biting my nails and hoping for the best, fearing the worst, round 2.
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Old 1st May 2017, 12:56 PM   #256
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
When I see how many French politicians, and not only on the left wing, behave while Le Pen is improving in the polls, I have the feeling to watch kids playing with matches...
Very mildly put.

They think they are so smart, already scheming for the parliamentary elections. But if it goes wrong, if too many of their voters stay home, what will they do then?

Originally Posted by Hlafordlaes View Post
I'm biting my nails and hoping for the best, fearing the worst, round 2.
Don't worry, if Le Pen wins, you can count on Pascal, a valiant warrior for justice and peace and brotherhood and many other great things.
Sure, he won't vote for Macron, but:
"Je me bats contre le FN toute l'année. Dès qu'il y a un raciste, je démarre au quart de tour. Et si Marine Le Pen est élue présidente, je serai le premier à me battre et à descendre dans la rue."
Translated: "I fight the FN all year long. Whenever I see a racist, I immediately confront him. And if Marine Le Pen is elected president, I will be the first to fight and protest on the street."
Delusional Mélenchon supporters.
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Old 1st May 2017, 03:01 PM   #257
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Don't worry, if Le Pen wins, you can count on Pascal, a valiant warrior for justice and peace and brotherhood and many other great things.
Sure, he won't vote for Macron, but:
"Je me bats contre le FN toute l'année. Dès qu'il y a un raciste, je démarre au quart de tour. Et si Marine Le Pen est élue présidente, je serai le premier à me battre et à descendre dans la rue."
Translated: "I fight the FN all year long. Whenever I see a racist, I immediately confront him. And if Marine Le Pen is elected president, I will be the first to fight and protest on the street."
Delusional Mélenchon supporters.
So he fights the FN all year long but he will take a day out on 7 May, just when it counts most...

Comprenne qui pourra, as one says in French...
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Old 1st May 2017, 11:11 PM   #258
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
So he fights the FN all year long but he will take a day out on 7 May, just when it counts most...

Comprenne qui pourra, as one says in French...
Even superheroes have to rest sometime.

Meanwhile, Le Pen is using every trick from Trump's winning strategy.

Yesterday she held a major speech, and plagiarized large parts of a speech Fillon gave a few weeks ago. (Link. There is a video linked in that article, where you can hear Fillon and Le Pen talking at the same time.)

But she didn't plagiarize everything. Fillon in his speech denounced Islamic extremism, and compared it to Nazism and Stalinism.
Le Pen left out the reference to Nazism and Stalinism.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 01:35 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Even superheroes have to rest sometime.

Meanwhile, Le Pen is using every trick from Trump's winning strategy.

Yesterday she held a major speech, and plagiarized large parts of a speech Fillon gave a few weeks ago. (Link. There is a video linked in that article, where you can hear Fillon and Le Pen talking at the same time.)

But she didn't plagiarize everything. Fillon in his speech denounced Islamic extremism, and compared it to Nazism and Stalinism.
Le Pen left out the reference to Nazism and Stalinism.
According to RTL France the author of the speech seems to be Paul-Marie Coûteaux who previously has also written speeches for François Fillion. The same Coûteaux is also close to the political line of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 01:55 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
According to RTL France the author of the speech seems to be Paul-Marie Coûteaux who previously has also written speeches for François Fillion. The same Coûteaux is also close to the political line of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan.
Ow, the plot thickens!

This Coûteaux wrote the Fillon speech, and now "gave notes" to Le Pen for her speech.

CT hypothesis: he deliberately tricked the Le Pen team to embarrass them.
Boring hypothesis: he sent them the Fillon speech as an example of how to address the Fillon voters, and somebody on the Le Pen team *** up. By the way, what is Meredith McIver up to these days?
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Old 2nd May 2017, 05:10 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
According to RTL France the author of the speech seems to be Paul-Marie Coûteaux who previously has also written speeches for François Fillion. The same Coûteaux is also close to the political line of Nicolas Dupont-Aignan.
And now Le Monde writes that they contacted Coûteaux, and that he denied having been in contact recently with Le Pen or her usual speechwriter Damien Philippot.
(Of course, that doesn't mean he wasn't in contact with someone else in the Le Pen campaign.)
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Old 2nd May 2017, 06:50 AM   #262
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What went weird the last days too are the changes in Le Pen's position about the euro. Ten days ago her official position was to organize a national referendum on the euro, i.e. stay within the euro or drop it and come back to the FRF. Since the agreement with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, MLP’s is all but clear.

Apparently there would first be negotiations with the EU on the euro and the referendum would only take place after completion of said negotiations, with no clear deadline: six months, one year, two years, more? There is no clear answer anymore, all the persons having been interviewed by the media having provided different (and contradictory) answers.

Furthermore Le Pen also evoked a mixed system where national currency would be used for internal transaction while a common currency (replacing the euro?) would be used (by the undertakings?) for EU transactions. Again this is all but clear and I really doubt the Le Pen herself has a clear idea of what she wants to implement…
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Old 2nd May 2017, 07:05 AM   #263
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
What went weird the last days too are the changes in Le Pen's position about the euro. Ten days ago her official position was to organize a national referendum on the euro, i.e. stay within the euro or drop it and come back to the FRF. Since the agreement with Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, MLP’s is all but clear.

Apparently there would first be negotiations with the EU on the euro and the referendum would only take place after completion of said negotiations, with no clear deadline: six months, one year, two years, more? There is no clear answer anymore, all the persons having been interviewed by the media having provided different (and contradictory) answers.

Furthermore Le Pen also evoked a mixed system where national currency would be used for internal transaction while a common currency (replacing the euro?) would be used (by the undertakings?) for EU transactions. Again this is all but clear and I really doubt the Le Pen herself has a clear idea of what she wants to implement…
She does: Whatever will bring un the votes.

She's a national disgrace en par with Donald Trump and Theresa May. I hope the French are smarter than Americans and hand her down a defeat like her father suffered in 2002.

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Old 2nd May 2017, 04:20 PM   #264
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
She does: Whatever will bring un the votes.

She's a national disgrace en par with Donald Trump and Theresa May. I hope the French are smarter than Americans and hand her down a defeat like her father suffered in 2002.

McHrozni
I surely hope so.

It's always said that Marine Le Pen gave the Front National a more acceptable image. How wrong that is, is illustrated by her the latest incident. In order to be more presidential and less the FN frontwoman, she stepped down as the president of the FN. And guess what? Her successor turns out also to be a Holocaust denier, just as daddy.

(BTW, his chemistry there stinks. Yes, it takes quite a long time to delouse a chamber with Zyklon-B, but it's much more effective in killing humans than in killing lice. In fact, 90% of the Zyklon-B delivered to Auschwitz was used for delousing, and only 10% for the Final Solution).
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Old 2nd May 2017, 04:35 PM   #265
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I wonder if some on the left in France WANT a Le Pen win,thinking it will somehow trigger a massive political crisis, from which they will emerge victorious, in power.
IT was that kind of thinking that helped Hitler to get into power in Germany.
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Old 2nd May 2017, 11:38 PM   #266
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I wonder if some on the left in France WANT a Le Pen win,thinking it will somehow trigger a massive political crisis, from which they will emerge victorious, in power.
IT was that kind of thinking that helped Hitler to get into power in Germany.
The behavior of Mechelon supports just that theory.
He's vermin.

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Old 2nd May 2017, 11:45 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
I surely hope so.

It's always said that Marine Le Pen gave the Front National a more acceptable image. How wrong that is, is illustrated by her the latest incident. In order to be more presidential and less the FN frontwoman, she stepped down as the president of the FN. And guess what? Her successor turns out also to be a Holocaust denier, just as daddy.

(BTW, his chemistry there stinks. Yes, it takes quite a long time to delouse a chamber with Zyklon-B, but it's much more effective in killing humans than in killing lice. In fact, 90% of the Zyklon-B delivered to Auschwitz was used for delousing, and only 10% for the Final Solution).
As a matter of fact Marine Le Pen did only make window dressing. But if you take time to walk to the back of the shop you will quickly realise that in fact she still sells the old Vichyist items, which are the core of her family business.

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Old 3rd May 2017, 01:30 AM   #268
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Desperate interview with Mélenchon's spokesman on Inter this morning. Blamed Hamon for there being no leftist in the second round, criticised Macron bitterly while shouting over the interviewer, and made it clear that the movement's position was to prefer a blank vote.

They can brag all they want about their anti-fascist credentials but it's all hot air unless they make their votes count.
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Old 3rd May 2017, 01:47 AM   #269
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Originally Posted by malbui View Post
Desperate interview with Mélenchon's spokesman on Inter this morning. Blamed Hamon for there being no leftist in the second round, criticised Macron bitterly while shouting over the interviewer, and made it clear that the movement's position was to prefer a blank vote.

They can brag all they want about their anti-fascist credentials but it's all hot air unless they make their votes count.
I loved it when he said that what was also important is the future, "how we see to it that Le Pen is not elected in 2022."

Yeah, let's not block her now, as she might be elected in 5 years.

I must admit I didn't see this coming. I knew a significant fraction of Mélenchon voters would abstain or even vote Le Pen. But I fully expected the leadership, from Mélenchon down, to reluctantly call to vote Macron in name of anti-fascism.
One illusion less for me.
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Old 4th May 2017, 02:17 AM   #270
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Surreal debate yesterday evening between Macron and Le Pen.

Le Pen was very aggressive, peddling insults and a lot of alternative facts. Macron was somewhat hesitant at the start, but was quite good later on. He mostly managed to stay calm.

As Nicolas Chapuis from Le Monde wrote, it looked like a debate where the two participants had different goals.
Macron wanted to show that he is presidential and try to get some undecided voters to join him.
Le Pen seemed to have given up on the idea of winning, and was positioning herself as the leader of the opposition against president Macron.

Can't see how this debate could help Le Pen close the gap. 3 days to go ...
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Old 4th May 2017, 04:51 AM   #271
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I did not watch the debate because I am fed up of seeing Le Pen lie at every TV interview. And from what I have read in the newspapers it was a clever decision.

From what I could see in the press Le Pen has never spoken about her program. Maybe because she has in fact no programm at all or because she perfectly knows what she presents as her program is unrealistic and cannot be implemented.
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Old 4th May 2017, 04:53 AM   #272
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
I did not watch the debate because I am fed up of seeing Le Pen lie at every TV interview. And from what I have read in the newspapers it was a clever decision.

From what I could see in the press Le Pen has never spoken about her program. Maybe because she has in fact no programm at all or because she perfectly knows what she presents as her program is unrealistic and cannot be implemented.
Remind you of someone?
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Old 4th May 2017, 05:39 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Remind you of someone?
This side of Atlantic or the other?
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Old 4th May 2017, 07:15 AM   #274
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From the information I got on the debate and its aftermath (Le Pen and her staff claiming Victory) its seems that it looked like pigeon chess...
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Old 4th May 2017, 07:29 AM   #275
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I see this election as a crossroads for Western civilization. Either the march of neo-fascist populism continues, the EU disbands after France leaves, and we'll have a major European war in the next couple of decades,

... or this is where sanity finally prevails, and the rollback towards normality begins.
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Old 4th May 2017, 08:30 AM   #276
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Sanity will probably prevail this time, at least if one can rely on the opinion polls. But I am far from convinced that the rollback towards normality will begin because Le Pen is not elected.
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Old 5th May 2017, 03:55 AM   #277
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Originally Posted by Degeneve View Post
Sanity will probably prevail this time, at least if one can rely on the opinion polls. But I am far from convinced that the rollback towards normality will begin because Le Pen is not elected.
I'm not entirelly convinced either, but I tell myself that what is needed is for the momentum of the populist right to be stopped until such a time as the "policies" implemented by them in countries where they were elected to power show themselves to be the disasters that we all know they will be.
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Old 5th May 2017, 03:50 PM   #278
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One of these days the western intelligence agencies are going to realize that hoarding computer security flaws and preventing developments in civilian cryptology makes their country more vulnerable, not less...
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Old 6th May 2017, 12:33 AM   #279
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So there we have it, the last attempt to destabilize the election.

It started on Wednesday with Macron's fake bank account in the Bahamas, a fake that Le Pen (surely by coincidence) mentioned as a "question" during the debate.
Yesterday the Fachosphère run away with a (poorly done) fake about messages between Macron supporters planning to kill (no less) Le Pen.

And now 4Chan, relayed by Putin Wikileaks, with a massive leak of real and fake Macron campaign emails and documents.

Difficult to asses whether this will have a significant impact.

But I agree with Newtons Bit, we (the West) will really have to learn to be smarter than we are now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/w...T.nav=top-news
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Old 6th May 2017, 12:52 AM   #280
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
So there we have it, the last attempt to destabilize the election.

It started on Wednesday with Macron's fake bank account in the Bahamas, a fake that Le Pen (surely by coincidence) mentioned as a "question" during the debate.
Yesterday the Fachosphère run away with a (poorly done) fake about messages between Macron supporters planning to kill (no less) Le Pen.

And now 4Chan, relayed by Putin Wikileaks, with a massive leak of real and fake Macron campaign emails and documents.

Difficult to asses whether this will have a significant impact.

But I agree with Newtons Bit, we (the West) will really have to learn to be smarter than we are now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/05/w...T.nav=top-news



I do hope the French have learned from the Brexit mistake and the US election and this Putin interference will backfire.

But I don't know anything about how the French actually view this development.
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