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Tags Emmanuel Macron , France elections , France politics , Marine Le Pen , political predictions , political speculation

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2017 French presidential election?
Nathalie Arthaud* 0 0%
François Asselineau* 0 0%
Jacques Cheminade* 0 0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 0 0%
François Fillon 2 6.45%
Benoît Hamon 0 0%
Jean Lassalle 0 0%
Marine Le Pen 7 22.58%
Emmanuel Macron* 16 51.61%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon* 0 0%
Philippe Poutou* 0 0%
On planet X, Trump wins all elections 6 19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 6th May 2017, 02:10 AM   #281
Firestone
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post



I do hope the French have learned from the Brexit mistake and the US election and this Putin interference will backfire.

But I don't know anything about how the French actually view this development.
We won't know the impact before the first estimates are released tomorrow evening.

French law prohibits politicians and the campaigns to communicate since midnight.
Some Le Pen surrogates tweeted about the leaks just before midnight. The Macron campaign denounced the leaks at 23.55pm.

Now the campaigns are silent, the French media have been warned by the election watchdog not to release or comment on the leaked documents.
Of course foreign media and social media are not bound by this warning.

As of now, I'm not aware of any damaging information contained in the leaks.

Americans will "appreciate" the fact that the first account who tweeted about the 4Chan leak was Jack Posobiec.
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Old 6th May 2017, 02:36 AM   #282
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Obama is interfering in the French election.
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Old 6th May 2017, 02:59 AM   #283
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Le Pen will win. Almost certainly IMO or at least is more likely to win than lose.


Brexit - impossible
Trump - impossible

Le Pen - impossible.




I would have put money on Le Pen two months ago (like i did with trump in the uk), but I then i found out that it is illegal to gamble on politics here in France.

( i am still here from my flyboard air investigation - BTW the thing has not flown once since the day that i arrived)

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Old 6th May 2017, 03:06 AM   #284
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Originally Posted by esspee View Post
Le Pen will win. Almost certainly IMO or at least is more likely to win than lose.


Brexit - impossible
Trump - impossible

Le Pen - impossible.




I would have put money on Le Pen two months ago (like i did with trump in the uk), but I then i found out that it is illegal to gamble on politics here in France.

( i am still here from my flyboard air investigation - BTW the thing has not flown once since the day that i arrived)
Certainly? Based on what?
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Old 6th May 2017, 04:37 AM   #285
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
Certainly? Based on what?
the atmosphere here. Peoples real opinions as opposed to what they might say in polite company/what is de rigueur


note - i think i said almost certainly. Nothing is for certain in this life. But i personally think its likely that she wins.

As in - i would have put most of my money (not a kings ransom btw) on that outcome had betting on politics not been illegal here.

(which is a strange thing, because in the uk, where i am from, betting is the only good reason to follow politics )

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Old 6th May 2017, 05:03 AM   #286
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Tunnel vision: if I would base my prediction on what I hear from my French friends and colleagues, Macron should win with close to 100% of the vote.

I know he won't. Polls give him between 59% and 63%.
Are these polls reliable? Well, the polls for the first round were quite good. And there was no hidden Le Pen vote whatsoever.

So, while an upset is always possible (see the Michigan democratic primary in 2016), it seems very unlikely based on the track record of polls in the first round.
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Old 7th May 2017, 12:53 AM   #287
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
We won't know the impact before the first estimates are released tomorrow evening.

French law prohibits politicians and the campaigns to communicate since midnight.
Some Le Pen surrogates tweeted about the leaks just before midnight. The Macron campaign denounced the leaks at 23.55pm.

Now the campaigns are silent, the French media have been warned by the election watchdog not to release or comment on the leaked documents.
Of course foreign media and social media are not bound by this warning.

As of now, I'm not aware of any damaging information contained in the leaks.

Americans will "appreciate" the fact that the first account who tweeted about the 4Chan leak was Jack Posobiec.
In all likelyhood the leaks don't contain anything that might jeopardize Macron. They didn't hack multiple accounts and pull gigabytes worth of e-mails in the last few days, they had them weeks ago. If there was anything damaging they would've released them when they could impact his campaign - two weeks ago at latest. By releasing them so close to the election it's rather unlikely anything significant will be founf and publicized before the vote is in. Macron and his campaign also made a safety move by claiming some documents therein are false. Whether this is true or not anyone not already voting for Le Pen that finds something damaging will ask himself "what if this is fake?", limiting the damage further.

It's a desperate tactic of FSB and their stooges. Wikileaks has once again shown they work for them. They not only failed to stop the publication for two days, they evrn immediately claimed there was no reason to believe any files were falsified. Vermin.

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Old 7th May 2017, 12:58 AM   #288
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Tunnel vision: if I would base my prediction on what I hear from my French friends and colleagues, Macron should win with close to 100% of the vote.

I know he won't. Polls give him between 59% and 63%.
Are these polls reliable? Well, the polls for the first round were quite good. And there was no hidden Le Pen vote whatsoever.

So, while an upset is always possible (see the Michigan democratic primary in 2016), it seems very unlikely based on the track record of polls in the first round.
The best chance for an upset would be a major terrorist attack a few days ago, coupled with Macron's poor response to it. Right now it is possible, but only in the theoretical sense.
Brexit and Trump were both within the margin error of polls. French elections are six to seven times that. Possible perhaps, but in the same sense as the other candidate being killed by a meteorite before the polls close.

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Old 7th May 2017, 01:15 AM   #289
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
In all likelyhood the leaks don't contain anything that might jeopardize Macron. They didn't hack multiple accounts and pull gigabytes worth of e-mails in the last few days, they had them weeks ago. If there was anything damaging they would've released them when they could impact his campaign - two weeks ago at latest. By releasing them so close to the election it's rather unlikely anything significant will be founf and publicized before the vote is in. Macron and his campaign also made a safety move by claiming some documents therein are false. Whether this is true or not anyone not already voting for Le Pen that finds something damaging will ask himself "what if this is fake?", limiting the damage further.

It's a desperate tactic of FSB and their stooges. Wikileaks has once again shown they work for them. They not only failed to stop the publication for two days, they evrn immediately claimed there was no reason to believe any files were falsified. Vermin.

McHrozni
Yes, I agree.

Yesterday I put on a hazmat suit and dived into the Fachosphère on Twitter to see what they were disclosing from the leaked emails and documents.
Absolutely nothing of any significance.


Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The best chance for an upset would be a major terrorist attack a few days ago, coupled with Macron's poor response to it. Right now it is possible, but only in the theoretical sense.
Brexit and Trump were both within the margin error of polls. French elections are six to seven times that. Possible perhaps, but in the same sense as the other candidate being killed by a meteorite before the polls close.

McHrozni
Again, agree.

If we stay within the bounds of what is realistic, the only major question this evening will be what the margin is.
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Old 7th May 2017, 01:59 AM   #290
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Tunnel vision: if I would base my prediction on what I hear from my French friends and colleagues, Macron should win with close to 100% of the vote.

I know he won't. Polls give him between 59% and 63%.
Are these polls reliable? Well, the polls for the first round were quite good. And there was no hidden Le Pen vote whatsoever.

So, while an upset is always possible (see the Michigan democratic primary in 2016), it seems very unlikely based on the track record of polls in the first round.

well i guess it all depends on who your collegues and friends are, and maybe there general economic class.

But at the same time, this could also be effecting my perception of it to ie - the kind of circles i might mix in.


SO yeah - Macron may win, totally not impossible - but if he does i would like to think the margin would be rather small.

Guess we find out in a few hours.

Either way - probrably going to be drama and carnage on monday no matter who wins.

Seems to me, from people here that many just seem to dislike both candidates. Kind of like the US election, ie many voted against Trump, many voted against Clinton, but how many actually voted for Clinton or for Trump?

Maybe the real deciding factor will be who is the most despised.
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Old 7th May 2017, 01:59 AM   #291
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
The best chance for an upset would be a major terrorist attack a few days ago, coupled with Macron's poor response to it. Right now it is possible, but only in the theoretical sense.
Brexit and Trump were both within the margin error of polls. French elections are six to seven times that. Possible perhaps, but in the same sense as the other candidate being killed by a meteorite before the polls close.

McHrozni
And as always, terrorists failed to deliver...
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Old 7th May 2017, 03:18 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by Klimax View Post
And as always, terrorists failed to deliver...
Well, they do ensure something like 90% of French Muslims will vote Macron today. That's almost 10% of the votes he needs for presidency if their turnout is in line with other groups. It is also likely terrorists ensured a greater than average turnout amongst French Muslims, making their impact stronger still. Without terrorists we could be rooting for Filon to beat Melenchon right now or sonething like that. That would be depressing.

The Irony is strong with this one.

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Old 7th May 2017, 06:16 AM   #293
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Information for the conspiracy nuts: Wikileaks has not published these leaks. They originate at 4chan where people (Putin? ) posted links to pastebin which contained links to archive.org which hosts the data.
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Old 7th May 2017, 06:59 AM   #294
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
Without terrorists we could be rooting for Filon to beat Melenchon right now or sonething like that.
I suppose it's too much to hope that you can provide something resembling evidence for that?
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Old 7th May 2017, 07:17 AM   #295
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French law doesn't authorize the release of estimates before 8.00pm (CET).

Belgian media are not bound by this law, and of course like to leak the first estimates they get from the French polling firms before the French deadline.

If you can't wait, have a look on RTBF, the Belgian French language public broadcasting company.
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Old 7th May 2017, 09:06 AM   #296
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Originally Posted by Craig B View Post
I suppose it's too much to hope that you can provide something resembling evidence for that?
You want evidence for a what-if scenario that includes a "could"?

Good luck with that.

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Old 7th May 2017, 09:54 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
You want evidence for a what-if scenario that includes a "could"?

Good luck with that.

McHrozni
Yes, cos you wrote
Without terrorists we could be rooting for Filon to beat Melenchon right now or sonething like that.
and forgot to add
With or without terrorists we could, or as it may equally well be, could not, be rooting for Fillon to beat, or perhaps fail to beat Melenchon, right now or perhaps at some other time, or something like that, but perhaps nothing at all like that, as the case may be.
You indicated that Muslims would be threatened by terrorists to come out and vote. Perhaps, they could or could not be doing that, but overall voting figures seem to be down on last time. Or they could be.
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Old 7th May 2017, 10:30 AM   #298
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Originally Posted by esspee View Post
the atmosphere here. Peoples real opinions as opposed to what they might say in polite company/what is de rigueur
Except that Brexit and the US elections had pretty close numbers on both sides regardless of the predictions. Macron has a huge lead.
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Old 7th May 2017, 10:51 AM   #299
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Except that Brexit and the US elections had pretty close numbers on both sides regardless of the predictions. Macron has a huge lead.
fair point i suppose. we find out in ten minutes
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:01 AM   #300
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First estimates: Macron at 65.1%
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:03 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
First estimates: Macron at 65.1%
estimates?

real results should be any minute
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:05 AM   #302
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65.5 macron.

Guess the people i talked to were not representative of the nation as a whole!
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:10 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by esspee View Post
65.5 macron.

Guess the people i talked to were not representative of the nation as a whole!
It looks like Le Pen didn't even reach the results the polls predicted. That's good, and gives Marcon a chance of starting to heal the country.

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Old 7th May 2017, 11:16 AM   #304
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That's a relief. I'm fed up with the far right.
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:20 AM   #305
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Except that Brexit and the US elections had pretty close numbers on both sides regardless of the predictions. Macron has a huge lead.
There is one major difference I tried to explain you but you missed. There is a good reason poll are mostly correct for the second round within a few points, and that lies in the huge difference of that with brexit or the US election system. That is the power of direct suffrage , combined with pollster which are used to it.

As said previously the result is utterly unsurprising. Better yet : *it could not have had a surprise*.
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:20 AM   #306
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Le Pen has conceded to Macron.

Still, doubling the result of her father in 2002, is still a massive achievement. Then again, reading some of the stuff that made people vote for her, it only goes to show we really are in a post-factual era.
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:20 AM   #307
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Phew!
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:21 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
It looks like Le Pen didn't even reach the results the polls predicted. That's good, and gives Marcon a chance of starting to heal the country.

McHrozni
60/40 was what was predicted. 65/35 is near enough.
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:21 AM   #309
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I'm particularly happy that Macron won with a clear pro EU campaign.
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:36 AM   #310
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Now let's hope that after this defeat the FN will have its own Night of the Long Knives...
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:38 AM   #311
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Massive relief around here.
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:41 AM   #312
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Originally Posted by malbui View Post
Massive relief around here.
official results not released yet, is it too early to sigh?
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:43 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by esspee View Post
the atmosphere here. Peoples real opinions as opposed to what they might say in polite company/what is de rigueur....
So where was that atmosphere located? I'm curious given the Macron victory was so clear and Le Pen didn't get the 40% that was supposed to mark a victory for her personally.
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:44 AM   #314
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
So where was that atmosphere located? I'm curious given the Macron victory was so clear and Le Pen didn't get the 40% that was supposed to mark a victory for her personally.
south - rural areas
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Old 7th May 2017, 11:54 AM   #315
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Marseille is pretty much a bastion of FN.

One potential headache for Macron, as he set about trying to heal the country, will be that the 2 million voters who posted a spoiled ballot. That's 2 million voters actively saying no thanks to either candidate.
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Old 7th May 2017, 12:13 PM   #316
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Marseille is pretty much a bastion of FN.

One potential headache for Macron, as he set about trying to heal the country, will be that the 2 million voters who posted a spoiled ballot. That's 2 million voters actively saying no thanks to either candidate.
inb4 conspiracy theories of election fraud start (off to check the conspiracy forum)



EDIT: nope, nothing there yet, ...just some stupid thread about a flying stool

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Old 7th May 2017, 01:09 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Marseille is pretty much a bastion of FN.

One potential headache for Macron, as he set about trying to heal the country, will be that the 2 million voters who posted a spoiled ballot. That's 2 million voters actively saying no thanks to either candidate.
4,2 million actually, which is a record, apparently.
http://www.liberation.fr/elections-p...ais-vu_1567886
Quote:
...Manifestement, une bonne partie d’entre eux a finalement refusé de choisir pour ce second tour de l’élection présidentielle, l’abstention dépassant les 25% et les votes blancs et nuls explosant. 4,2 millions d’électeurs sur les 47,6 millions d’inscrits sur les listes électorales ont décidé de voter, mais de ne choisir ni le Front national, ni En marche....

Last edited by Castro; 7th May 2017 at 01:11 PM.
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Old 7th May 2017, 01:13 PM   #318
Vixen
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Viva la, viva la, viva l'amour!
Viva la, viva la, viva l'amour!

Merci, beaucoup, la France.
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vilken tröst, vad än som kommer på!
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Old 7th May 2017, 01:21 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by Castro View Post
4,2 million actually, which is a record, apparently.
http://www.liberation.fr/elections-p...ais-vu_1567886
Alas, was only following the coverage with half an ear. Bad idea when hearing impaired, I suppose
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Old 7th May 2017, 01:36 PM   #320
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Stated and respectful reaction from the Leave.EU campaign
Quote:
The French rolled over in 1940. This time they've saved Germany the fuel and bullets.
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/...07433829924866
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