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Tags political predictions , uk elections , uk politics

View Poll Results: Predict the result of UK General Election 2017
Conservative majority of 100+ 7 10.94%
Conservative majority of 76 to 100 4 6.25%
Conservative majority of 51 to 75 9 14.06%
Conservative majority of 26 to 50 7 10.94%
Conservative majority of 1 to 25 14 21.88%
Hung parliament 19 29.69%
Labour majority of 1 to 25 3 4.69%
Labour majority of 26 to 50 0 0%
Labour majority of 51 to 75 0 0%
Labour majority of 76 to 100 0 0%
Labour majority of 100+ 1 1.56%
Voters: 64. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 5th June 2017, 09:19 AM   #1
MikeG
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Predict the UK election result.

We'll know for certain in a few days time, so here is your chance to make a public prediction. The poll is public, so we can see see who voted for what, and it is one vote each.

As an aside, it'd be interesting to have your predictions for the Lib Dem result. I reckon they'll be down to 4 or 5 MPs.
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Last edited by MikeG; 5th June 2017 at 10:40 AM.
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Old 5th June 2017, 09:25 AM   #2
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Labour to make a surprising* rally and gain considerably more votes than expected, but not enough actual seats to take it away from the Conservatives who make a majority with a comfortable 60-70 seats to spare. SNP continue to utterly dominate in Scotland, Lib Dems and Greens make no noticeable impact, UKIP evaporates.

*depending on what surprises you
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Old 5th June 2017, 10:04 AM   #3
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A Conservative majority of 138 seats (I did bet on 168 seats when the election was announced but that seems too many now).
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Old 5th June 2017, 10:19 AM   #4
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Well, the poll was supposed to be public. Looks like I pressed the wrong button somewhere. I've asked to mods to fix it, but I don't know if that's possible post hoc.
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"The Conservatives want to keep wogs out and march boldly back to the 1950s when Britain still had an Empire and blacks, women, poofs and Irish knew their place." The Don That's what we've sunk to here.
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Old 5th June 2017, 10:26 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Well, the poll was supposed to be public. Looks like I pressed the wrong button somewhere. I've asked to mods to fix it, but I don't know if that's possible post hoc.
Seems to be public until you vote
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Old 5th June 2017, 10:32 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by David RP View Post
Seems to be public until you vote
Really? So some people get to see who has voted where, and you lose that ability once you've voted yourself? That seems like a glitch.
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Old 5th June 2017, 11:57 AM   #7
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I can see who has voted by clicking on the number of votes; can you do that or is it a mod privilege? As far as I can see the poll is set to public.
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Old 5th June 2017, 01:16 PM   #8
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SNP 42 seats.
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Old 5th June 2017, 01:43 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
I can see who has voted by clicking on the number of votes; can you do that or is it a mod privilege? As far as I can see the poll is set to public.
Oooh yes, that works. Thanks. Odd, as I am sure that I have voted in other polls and been able to see who has voted where without having to click on anything.
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Old 5th June 2017, 01:47 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Architect View Post
SNP 42 seats.
I think they'll do better than that, but I suspect that 2015 was the high water mark for them. I'd expect the Conservatives to gain around 8 to 10 seats in Scotland, and the Libs to lose theirs. Scotland to remain very much SNP territory, but chipped away at slightly.
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Old 5th June 2017, 01:53 PM   #11
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I'm going for a Conservative majority of a shade under what they have. Just for fun. However, the realist in me thinks the Labour surge based on a youth vote will turn out to be illusory as they fail to show up at the polls.
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Old 5th June 2017, 01:56 PM   #12
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Conservative majority of 40 to 50 seats.
Lib Dem: 5 seats.
SNP: 50 seats.
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Old 5th June 2017, 02:04 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Oooh yes, that works. Thanks. Odd, as I am sure that I have voted in other polls and been able to see who has voted where without having to click on anything.
Some oddity of the forum software.

I voted hung parliament on the basis that it's so volatile.

Labour might motivate the youth vote.

Labour might fail to motivate the youth vote.

A good many Brexiteers might regret their vote.

A good many Brexiteers might harden their stance.

Unforeseen events might sway votes one direction or the other, like Manchester.

Some voters might want to distance themselves from Trumpetry.

And so forth.

There are just too many variables.
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Old 5th June 2017, 02:30 PM   #14
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I voted hung Parliament more in hope than expectation. The recent drop in Tory ratings plus recent more statesmanlike performances from Corbyn may swing the Labour vote just enough that combined with SNP and LibDem they wipe out the Tory majority.

I reckon the LibDems will manage four or five seats, and I expect the SNP to get about 45. But I've been wrong before, which is why I'm not a betting woman.
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Old 5th June 2017, 02:42 PM   #15
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Question is how many voters are buying the "New Corbyn". IMHO a good debate performance and a more moderate tone for the last few weeks will not be enough to change the perception of him as someone unfit to be prime minister. The Tories will win, but will not have the kind of landslide they would have a few weeks ago. That was due largely to Tory missteps then in any action on the part of Labor.
IF Corbyn were not the face of Labor, Labor would have a much rosier election prospects.
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Old 5th June 2017, 03:23 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Question is how many voters are buying the "New Corbyn". IMHO a good debate performance and a more moderate tone for the last few weeks will not be enough to change the perception of him as someone unfit to be prime minister. The Tories will win, but will not have the kind of landslide they would have a few weeks ago. That was due largely to Tory missteps then in any action on the part of Labor.
IF Corbyn were not the face of Labor, Labor would have a much rosier election prospects.
Ha! Rosier! Nice one.
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Old 5th June 2017, 03:26 PM   #17
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I agree, dudalb; under a better leader Labour would have a good chance of a majority. Corbyn is tainted both by his past and by his cronies (Abbott, McDonnell). I really don't want to see five more years of Tory cuts to vital public services (and personally I've had some very difficult times recently with the hoops I have to jump through to claim the disability allowances to which I'm entitled) but I don't see Corbyn as a viable PM.

At the start of the campaign my constituency was predicted by www.electoralcalculus.co.uk to have a 61% chance of being a CON gain from LAB (bearing in mind the margin in 2015 was just 1883 votes). As of today, that chance is down to 55%.
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Old 5th June 2017, 05:06 PM   #18
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Well, a couple of weeks ago I'd have said 100+ majority for the Tories. But after a couple of spectacular own goals and a generally not good campaign by them, I said Tories 1-25 majority.

And I'm thinking it will be closer to 1 than 25. A lot closer.

And even at that, I'm being optimistic.

(Or pessimistic, depending on how you look at it, I guess.)
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Old 5th June 2017, 10:45 PM   #19
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I am in the 1 to 25 bracket.

I think SNP will drop a fair few but at the end of the day it will still be a resounding win regardless of what the media will try and portray. It wasn't long ago they only had 6 seats.
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Old 5th June 2017, 11:42 PM   #20
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I put a 51-75 Tory majority. The terrorist attack will have a rally around the flag effect for Conservatives which will not dissipate before Thursday and many media outlets are bashing Corbyn for some of his stupider ideas, driving up the Conservative voter participation.

I hope I'm wrong, but that's where I think things stand right now.

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Old 6th June 2017, 12:07 AM   #21
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I've been having a look at the Lib Dems (being as I've voted for them, and their predecessors, my whole life until the last election). On a bad night, I reckon it possible that the only seat they cling on to would be Tim Farron's. I'm not making this a prediction, BTW, but just saying that it is possible. Norman Lamb is toast in North Norfolk, I reckon, which would be a big loss to the party at Westminster. Nick Clegg looks to be losing his seat to Labour. Alistair Carmichael is in a tight 3 way fight in Orkney.

Along with Ukip's demise, we seem to be entering a phase of 2 party national politics.

So, I'm going to amend my Lib Dem prediction down to 3 or fewer MPs.
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Old 6th June 2017, 12:14 AM   #22
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I think that it's going to be an absolute bloodbath for Labour. Their recent rebound in the polls IMO is combination of a dead cat bounce and a reaction to unpopular Conservative policies for social care payment and dropping the triple lock (both of which are, IMO, sensible policies).

IMO when the electorate are in the voting booth and they actually have to put cross to paper then in times of uncertainly they will default to voting for the party currently in power.

I wouldn't be at all surprised by a Conservative majority of 150+ and wouldn't be shocked by 200+. I think they will win more seats in Scotland than Labour (who I reckon may actually be wiped out there). Regarding the other parties on the mainland:

SNP - will lose a very few seats to the LibDems and Conservatives but will still have around 50 seats.
LibDem - will stage a (very) minor recovery and may get into double figures seatwise
Plaid Cymru - will maintain support but won't get any more seats
Green - will sadly lose their seat but will increase their vote nationally by a significant margin
UKIP - will happily lose their seat but may crucially gain votes from Labour in some of the Labour heartlands and allow the Conservative Party to win those seats

Turnout will be even lower than in recent and once again it will be pointed out that the under-25s were seriously under-represented.

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Old 6th June 2017, 12:16 AM   #23
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
So, I'm going to amend my Lib Dem prediction down to 3 or fewer MPs.
Ooooh ! One of us is going to be disappointed, I've predicted a minor revival in LibDem fortunes
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Old 6th June 2017, 12:37 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
A Conservative majority of 138 seats (I did bet on 168 seats when the election was announced but that seems too many now).

I do so hope you are right.
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Old 6th June 2017, 02:01 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I've been having a look at the Lib Dems (being as I've voted for them, and their predecessors, my whole life until the last election). On a bad night, I reckon it possible that the only seat they cling on to would be Tim Farron's. I'm not making this a prediction, BTW, but just saying that it is possible. Norman Lamb is toast in North Norfolk, I reckon, which would be a big loss to the party at Westminster. Nick Clegg looks to be losing his seat to Labour. Alistair Carmichael is in a tight 3 way fight in Orkney.

Along with Ukip's demise, we seem to be entering a phase of 2 party national politics.

So, I'm going to amend my Lib Dem prediction down to 3 or fewer MPs.
If anyone deserves to lose a seat it is that lying sack of crap Carmichael.
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Old 6th June 2017, 02:04 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Seismosaurus View Post
Well, a couple of weeks ago I'd have said 100+ majority for the Tories. But after a couple of spectacular own goals and a generally not good campaign by them, I said Tories 1-25 majority.

And I'm thinking it will be closer to 1 than 25. A lot closer.

And even at that, I'm being optimistic.

(Or pessimistic, depending on how you look at it, I guess.)


Is it yet time to give May a beating for being a terrible party leader and a heavy weight on the party's election prospects given her abysmal campaign performance, her rotary tendencies and her apparent inability to connect with anyone?
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Old 6th June 2017, 03:52 AM   #27
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I've been having a look at the Lib Dems (being as I've voted for them, and their predecessors, my whole life until the last election). On a bad night, I reckon it possible that the only seat they cling on to would be Tim Farron's. I'm not making this a prediction, BTW, but just saying that it is possible. Norman Lamb is toast in North Norfolk, I reckon, which would be a big loss to the party at Westminster. Nick Clegg looks to be losing his seat to Labour. Alistair Carmichael is in a tight 3 way fight in Orkney.

Along with Ukip's demise, we seem to be entering a phase of 2 party national politics.

So, I'm going to amend my Lib Dem prediction down to 3 or fewer MPs.
Have we ever not, apart from a couple of blimps over the decades the choice has only ever been for a Labour or Conservative government?
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Old 6th June 2017, 03:54 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Is it yet time to give May a beating for being a terrible party leader and a heavy weight on the party's election prospects given her abysmal campaign performance, her rotary tendencies and her apparent inability to connect with anyone?
You are being rather unfair, she's not really had any time to deal with this tiresome general election as she's been busy working on Brexit and other important matters.....
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Old 6th June 2017, 04:03 AM   #29
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Projections show a conservative majority of 58-80, except Yougov that shows a hung parliament, with Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority. They will either become a major force of UK polling or else take a moderate hit to their reputation.

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Old 6th June 2017, 04:46 AM   #30
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I wonder how this election would have turned out if we had a french style runoff system
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Old 6th June 2017, 04:51 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman View Post
I wonder how this election would have turned out if we had a french style runoff system
It would be between the Tories and Labour with the Tories winning, as opposed to the world we are in which is between the Tories and Labour, with the Tories winning.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 6th June 2017, 04:56 AM   #32
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I predict that Scotland will lose as always.
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Old 6th June 2017, 05:10 AM   #33
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I predict that Scotland will lose as always.

Not always.
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Old 6th June 2017, 05:12 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Question is how many voters are buying the "New Corbyn". IMHO a good debate performance and a more moderate tone for the last few weeks will not be enough to change the perception of him as someone unfit to be prime minister. The Tories will win, but will not have the kind of landslide they would have a few weeks ago. That was due largely to Tory missteps then in any action on the part of Labor.
IF Corbyn were not the face of Labor, Labor would have a much rosier election prospects.
The Tories are desperately trying to focus on two memes: Corbyn soft on terrorists; and magic money tree. Boris Johnson could not answer a single question this morning about his party and his parties records and policies without going back to those two memes.

I say 'going back to' but actually that was the start, middle and end of his response. he would not discuss anything else, no matter what the question. Michelle Hussein got quite shirty in the end (he kept ranting over her as well) and at one point just told him to 'Stop talking'.
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Old 6th June 2017, 05:12 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
It would be between the Tories and Labour with the Tories winning, as opposed to the world we are in which is between the Tories and Labour, with the Tories winning.
In a second round system a lot of snp and liberal voters would probably back Corbyn. It would be close but I don't see Tory victory assured in that scenario.
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Old 6th June 2017, 05:29 AM   #36
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Oh and my prediction is a small Tory majority (I really hope lower than currently just to teach them a lesson for being so opportunistic) but I'd rather a hung parliament as none of them deserve to win.

Bemusing to me how many, 'life-long' labour voters are voting Tory - the polar opposite in political terms. I can understand them not rating Corbyn, so not voting labour but normally they'd protest vote to Green or Liberal but they actively seem to want a Tory Government. The only reason I've seen given is that 'She'll sort the immigrants out' which is a sad indictment of racism levels in Britain. Very revealing interview with one supporter:

"I've voted Labour all my life, as my parents and grandparents did but we need to sort these foreigners out and stop them taking our jobs".

'Are you looking for work at the moment?'

"Oh no, I've got a tidy job - been in it all my working life'.

"So immigrants haven't taken your job then?'

"Oh no, but there's too many of them and they're putting a strain on the health service! It takes ages to get a Doctor's appointment now!"

Only other reason I've heard for switching from 'life long Labour' to Tory was an indication of the Tory memes working:

"Well I agree with what Corbyn is saying but where's he going to get the money from - he can't magic it up. That's why I'm voting Tory" blithely ignoring the fact that Labour have at least costed out their proposals and funding (however well or badly) and the Tories haven't at all.

It's bizarre - but then I lost faith in the general public after sitting on a Jury and realising what 'normal' people are really like.
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Old 6th June 2017, 05:48 AM   #37
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Oh and Lib Dems* (who, according to a test I did, I'm naturally more inclined to) may well get a smaller number of seats. Amazing how a party that was on the rise and in a country that has been desperately looking for an alternative to the big two, has fallen so far due to (IMHO) one spectacularly bad decision. No, not going in to coalition or the string of being conned by the Tories to always be the ones giving bad news, whilst Tory ministers were always trotted out to give the good stuff, I think it was purely and simply Tuition Fees.

This was seen as such a massive betrayal of a really clear promise. Clegg could have got away with abstaining but would obviously have been far better voting against. It would have had no material effect on the outcome and he could even have indicated tacit understanding along the lines of 'Having seen the books, I can understand why they feel the need to do this but I gave my word and I can't in all conscience betray the people who voted for me on that understanding'. Then some better marketing on how they'd 'moderated' other Govt agendas and they could have built to the next election. As it was, they looked like lapdogs and that one clear issue proved it.

*I think Farron has performed fairly well but I can't reconcile some of his views as 'Liberal'. Seems more like a soft Tory to me...
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Old 6th June 2017, 06:07 AM   #38
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Originally Posted by Ethan Thane Athen View Post
Oh and Lib Dems* (who, according to a test I did, I'm naturally more inclined to) may well get a smaller number of seats. Amazing how a party that was on the rise and in a country that has been desperately looking for an alternative to the big two, has fallen so far due to (IMHO) one spectacularly bad decision. No, not going in to coalition or the string of being conned by the Tories to always be the ones giving bad news, whilst Tory ministers were always trotted out to give the good stuff, I think it was purely and simply Tuition Fees.

This was seen as such a massive betrayal of a really clear promise. Clegg could have got away with abstaining but would obviously have been far better voting against. It would have had no material effect on the outcome and he could even have indicated tacit understanding along the lines of 'Having seen the books, I can understand why they feel the need to do this but I gave my word and I can't in all conscience betray the people who voted for me on that understanding'. Then some better marketing on how they'd 'moderated' other Govt agendas and they could have built to the next election. As it was, they looked like lapdogs and that one clear issue proved it.

*I think Farron has performed fairly well but I can't reconcile some of his views as 'Liberal'. Seems more like a soft Tory to me...
Whilst I think that did create an overall impression of "can't be trusted" in the end it was shown that Cameron and Clegg were in fact brothers by different mothers. Cameron and Clegg were/are progressive liberals who by dint of very astute political strategy managed to "takeover" their respective parties and enact neoliberal policies.

It will take some time for the Liberals to be again seen to be different to the Tories, obviously the Tories are helping with this as they are busy throwing off the shackles of Cameron and reverting to type.
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Old 6th June 2017, 06:13 AM   #39
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Have we ever not, apart from a couple of blimps over the decades the choice has only ever been for a Labour or Conservative government?
I rather think you know what I meant. Ukip got about 13% of the national vote last time out. They'll get less than 5% this time.The Lib Dems were in the government before last, and may be down to 1 or 2 MPs this time. The second tier political forces have evaporated.
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Old 6th June 2017, 06:33 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I rather think you know what I meant. Ukip got about 13% of the national vote last time out. They'll get less than 5% this time.The Lib Dems were in the government before last, and may be down to 1 or 2 MPs this time. The second tier political forces have evaporated.
Depends on what you consider the second tier and whether you restrict your analysis to England. It's certainly true in England, but there is currently another, geographically succinct, party which has a fair number of MPs
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