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Tags political predictions , uk elections , uk politics

View Poll Results: Predict the result of UK General Election 2017
Conservative majority of 100+ 7 10.94%
Conservative majority of 76 to 100 4 6.25%
Conservative majority of 51 to 75 9 14.06%
Conservative majority of 26 to 50 7 10.94%
Conservative majority of 1 to 25 14 21.88%
Hung parliament 19 29.69%
Labour majority of 1 to 25 3 4.69%
Labour majority of 26 to 50 0 0%
Labour majority of 51 to 75 0 0%
Labour majority of 76 to 100 0 0%
Labour majority of 100+ 1 1.56%
Voters: 64. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 7th June 2017, 01:02 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
.........I don't quite get that reasoning, so can you spell it out more for me?
In a seat in which a Tory was in a fight for victory with a Lib Dem (typically in the SW of England), a vote for Ukip would almost certainly have come from someone who previously voted Tory. This reduces the Tory vote enough to allow the Lib Dems to win a tight race.

Quote:
May out-thatchers Thatcher and has swung the Tories further to the right, gobbling up the UKIP with lots of pro-Brexit rhetoric. I'd thunk that leaves a gap on the Tory left flank which the LibDems then could profit from. What am I seeing wrong?
The subject of this thread. This is a question for the other thread. Your error is in your first dozen words, which are flat out wrong.
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Old 7th June 2017, 01:03 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I'd be curious to know what you thought a "hung parliament" might mean in the light of your misunderstanding of the term "majority".
That the Queen comes in with an armed guard and escorts all MPs off to Tyburn?

(well, just a very naive interpretation of "hung" I guess).
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Old 7th June 2017, 01:07 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
In a seat in which a Tory was in a fight for victory with a Lib Dem (typically in the SW of England), a vote for Ukip would almost certainly have come from someone who previously voted Tory. This reduces the Tory vote enough to allow the Lib Dems to win a tight race.
IOW, now that Brexit is assured, UKIP has become irrelevant to its voters and they return to voting Tory?
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Old 7th June 2017, 01:08 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
.....Second, yes, I guess it depends on what you call PR. The Irish 4-5 seat per constituency STV system apparently also counts as PR and then I agree with you. I thought primarily of the Dutch or Israeli pure PR system, or the mixed German or Scottish or Welsh system. In Scotland, with 16 seats per region, or Wales with 12 seats per region, 7% would give you approximately 7% of the seats.......
Different countries have different thresholds for representation. You don't secure 0.5% of the national vote and expect 0.5% of the seats anywhere. In some countries the threshold is 5% (I believe, without checking, that this applies in Germany). So you can get 4.5% of the vote and get 0% of the seats. The point I was making was that if the Lib Dems won 7.5% of the vote tomorrow, in some PR countries (again, I haven't checked), I am pretty sure that would fall short of the threshold and they would achieve 0 seats.
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Old 7th June 2017, 01:12 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
IOW, now that Brexit is assured, UKIP has become irrelevant to its voters and they return to voting Tory?
Pretty much.
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Old 7th June 2017, 01:29 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Different countries have different thresholds for representation. You don't secure 0.5% of the national vote and expect 0.5% of the seats anywhere. In some countries the threshold is 5% (I believe, without checking, that this applies in Germany). So you can get 4.5% of the vote and get 0% of the seats. The point I was making was that if the Lib Dems won 7.5% of the vote tomorrow, in some PR countries (again, I haven't checked), I am pretty sure that would fall short of the threshold and they would achieve 0 seats.
I don't pretend to know the election systems in the 200-odd countries in the world either. You're right about Germany with a 5% threshold, Greece has a 3% threshold. Turkey is the only one I can think of off the top of my hat with a higher threshold, viz. 10%. But they don't belong in the column "democracy" anymore anyway, IMHO.

ETA: but that's all a bit besides the point. The LibDems could have proposed / insisted back in 2010 on a PR system that would have ensured them proportional representation with such numbers. Say adopt the Scottish/Welsh system. Then they could have broken every other election promise and still be a very relevant third party after every election in perpetuity.
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Old 7th June 2017, 06:22 PM   #87
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Is it yet time to give May a beating for being a terrible party leader and a heavy weight on the party's election prospects given her abysmal campaign performance, her rotary tendencies and her apparent inability to connect with anyone?
All depends.

If she comes out with a large majority, this whole election will be seen as a smart move - at least amongst the tories, who are the only ones whose opinion matters to her. Then she's bought herself a more comfortable majority, and a couple of extra years in power.

If she comes out of it with a majority about the same or less, it will be seen as a pretty pointless waste of time and money. Much will be said about how she managed to throw a 20 point lead away. But whilst embarrassing for her, I doubt it will be fatal.

Of course if she loses her majority it will be seen as one of the great political mistakes of the last twenty years or so. She'd likely get the boot as party leader, and deservedly so.
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Old 7th June 2017, 06:38 PM   #88
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I am a stauch supporter of Mr. Corbyn, I really like him and I would really hope that he could get the majority.
I remember only a few months ago the Labour Party was given as dead, with a 30% gap from Conservatives to Labour
Now the gap is like 3%
This is why I do not trust polls much
realistically, I really hope Corbyn could close the gap with the Conservatives or even win with a thin majority

(sorry for my poor English)
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Old 8th June 2017, 12:29 AM   #89
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Originally Posted by Antonio Coceri View Post
I am a stauch supporter of Mr. Corbyn, I really like him and I would really hope that he could get the majority.
I remember only a few months ago the Labour Party was given as dead, with a 30% gap from Conservatives to Labour
Now the gap is like 3%
This is why I do not trust polls much
realistically, I really hope Corbyn could close the gap with the Conservatives or even win with a thin majority

(sorry for my poor English)
Both these figures are wrong, by miles. You're going to have to do better than just making up numbers if you want to be taken seriously around here.

At the start of the campaign, the gap was around 17%, and now it is around 9%, as you can see from the poll tracker in my link. Here's another one.
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Old 8th June 2017, 01:33 AM   #90
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Originally Posted by Antonio Coceri View Post
I am a stauch supporter of Mr. Corbyn, I really like him and I would really hope that he could get the majority.
I remember only a few months ago the Labour Party was given as dead, with a 30% gap from Conservatives to Labour
Now the gap is like 3%
This is why I do not trust polls much
realistically, I really hope Corbyn could close the gap with the Conservatives or even win with a thin majority

(sorry for my poor English)
You have to keep a few things in mind. First of all, polls are a lagging indicator - a poll published today gathered opinions of people during the past several days, who formed those opinions in the time before that. The polls estimate the opinions of electorate a week ago or so, but a week is a long time in politics. The result of this is that the trend of the polls is more often than not more important than the support indicated by the poll.

Another issue is identified as the shy Tory voter. In the past several decades Tories have ove-rperformed whereas Labour has under-performed the polls. However as the blog 538 shows this is only true when Labour was ahead, but not if Tories were ahead. I recommend the whole article below.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-polls-skewed/

Another wildcard are these terrorist attacks during the campaign. They could work either way. Conventional wisdom suggests that in times of threat, voters will prefer the establishment over changing the government, but that's just the most common response which may or may not be true this time around.

Overall predicting results of this election is a thankless task. If you look at the pollsters however, there are only two possible outcomes: either Yougov and their model are discredited, or Yougov becomes the new top pollster for UK.

We'll see in just over 13 hours.

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Old 8th June 2017, 01:42 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
.......If you look at the pollsters however, there are only two possible outcomes: either Yougov and their model are discredited, or Yougov becomes the new top pollster for UK........
Yougov are predicting an increased Tory majority.
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Old 8th June 2017, 01:50 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yougov are predicting an increased Tory majority.
Heh. They predicted both results and won't become the top UK pollster, regardless of what happens. Their controversial model could get vindicated, that's it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...at_projections

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Old 8th June 2017, 01:56 AM   #93
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The bookies are offering odds-on that the Tories will win more than 370 seats in total. They are also giving odds of May winning at 1/6 on, and Corbyn at 11/1 against.
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Old 8th June 2017, 02:04 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
The bookies are offering odds-on that the Tories will win more than 370 seats in total. They are also giving odds of May winning at 1/6 on, and Corbyn at 11/1 against.
Well, I hope Corbyn Brexits them, but I'm not holding my breath on that

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Old 8th June 2017, 04:40 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
No, a Conservative majority of 80 would mean they had 80 seats more than the total combined number of seats of all their opponents.
Wouldn't that be technically [Conservative plus Ulster Unionists] against [everyone else less Sinn Féin and the Speaker]?

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Old 8th June 2017, 04:47 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Wouldn't that be technically [Conservative plus Ulster Unionists] against [everyone else less Sinn Féin and the Speaker]?
I covered that, briefly:

Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
......For this exercise we ignore the fact that once elected, the speaker is no longer a party member, and that Sinn Fein MPs never take their seats.
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Old 8th June 2017, 07:48 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by Information Analyst View Post
Wouldn't that be technically [Conservative plus Ulster Unionists] against [everyone else less Sinn Féin and the Speaker]?
I think they tend to differentiate between the actual majority and the working majority. The latter tends to factor in the Ulster Unionists.

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Old 8th June 2017, 08:32 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I covered that, briefly:
OK. An oddity of the maths seems to be that, assuming there's still 4 x SF plus the Speaker, any majority can only be an odd number.
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Old 8th June 2017, 08:56 AM   #99
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Both these figures are by miles. You're going to have to do better than just making up numbers if you want to be taken seriously around here.

At the start of the campaign, the gap was around 17%, and now it is around 9%, as you can see from the poll tracker in my link. Here's ["]another one[/url].
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-uk-poll-tracker-2017-10266121
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Old 8th June 2017, 09:54 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by Antonio Coceri View Post
mirror.co.uk/news/politics/election-uk-poll-tracker-2017-10266121
Yes, and? That supports exactly what I said. I've told you before, getting your facts straight around here is considered quite important.

This, from the Mirror (there couldn't be a more Labour-supporting paper) that you linked to:

Quote:
Comres: Con 44%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 9%, Ukip 5%
Surveymonkey: Con 42%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 6%, Ukip 4%
Panelbase: Con 44%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 7%, Ukip 5%, Green 2%
YouGov: Con 42%, Lab 35%, Lib Dem 10%, Ukip 5%, Green 2%
BMG: Con 46%, Lab 33%, Lib Dems 8%, Ukip 5%
Quote:
How many seats might each party win?

Here are YouGov's seat projection models for each day in the run-up to the election. Please note these are not the same as opinion polls, and use a very different method. 326 seats are needed for an overall majority.

June 7: Con 269-334, Lab 238-302
Con mid-range from the above: 301.5
Lab mid range from above: 270
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Old 8th June 2017, 10:25 AM   #101
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
That the Queen comes in with an armed guard and escorts all MPs off to Tyburn?

(well, just a very naive interpretation of "hung" I guess).

No, that would be a hanged parliament.

[Insert Blazing Saddles joke here]
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Old 8th June 2017, 11:18 AM   #102
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Usually watch the results with a bottle of whisky but tonight it's only Pepsi Max. Could be a long painful night ahead. And the morning after may well be worse than usual
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Old 8th June 2017, 11:59 AM   #103
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
You should have stuck with your instinct. The answer is no. First, that level of detail is OT. Second, the information is freely available on the internet. Third, I'm not about to spend my time presenting you with evidence only for you to ignore it and trot out your habitual straw man arguments. At least have the courtesy to gain knowledge of a subject before you demand that others engage with you.
Oh dear lots of words and still no evidence....
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Old 8th June 2017, 11:59 AM   #104
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Originally Posted by baron View Post
Tiresome.
We agree, Tommy is.
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Old 8th June 2017, 12:05 PM   #105
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So, I voted.
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Old 8th June 2017, 12:21 PM   #106
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I did too. Somehow I managed to get through the entire election without receiving a single piece of election literature, from any party, and without laying eyes on a single political poster anywhere. Goodness knows how I managed to make a choice given such a paucity of information.
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Old 8th June 2017, 02:07 PM   #107
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SKYNews is calling the Exit Poll results, 'sensational'.
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Old 8th June 2017, 02:11 PM   #108
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Called it, hung parliament.
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Old 8th June 2017, 02:14 PM   #109
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They are saying if Jeremy Corbyn gets 20 more seats than the Exit Poll predicts, he'll be Prime Minister, if 20 less, Theresa May gamble pays off.
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Old 8th June 2017, 02:17 PM   #110
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Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman View Post
Called it, hung parliament.
Well I voted for a small Tory majority and will stick with it for now although hoping not
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Old 8th June 2017, 02:20 PM   #111
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It's 21:20 Greenwich time and you don't have more than vague exit polls? Crikey, this isn't up to EU standards.
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Old 8th June 2017, 04:42 PM   #112
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I need this to arrive to 15
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Old 8th June 2017, 04:44 PM   #113
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
Yes, and? That supports exactly what I said. I've told you before, getting your facts straight around here is considered quite important.

This, from the Mirror (there couldn't be a more Labour-supporting paper) that you linked to:





Con mid-range from the above: 301.5
Lab mid range from above: 270
Con 42%, Lab 38%,
This is pretty close to the 3 points gap I was talking about

And Corbyn

http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk...-a7780171.html
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Old 8th June 2017, 05:35 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
It's 21:20 Greenwich time and you don't have more than vague exit polls? Crikey, this isn't up to EU standards.
The polls closed at 22:00 BST (21:00 BST).

Not sure how you expect the results 20 minutes after people stopped voting.
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Old 8th June 2017, 05:43 PM   #115
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Usually watch the results with a bottle of whisky but tonight it's only Pepsi Max. Could be a long painful night ahead. And the morning after may well be worse than usual
You may want to crack open the loudmouth soup after all.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 8th June 2017, 06:28 PM   #116
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SNP are being slaughtered.

Angus Robertson has been kicked out.

Tories are surprisingly (to me) strong in Scotland.

Looks like Labour could also be strengthening in Scotland.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 8th June 2017, 06:29 PM   #117
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Ha ha! This could be funny. Some Tories are now suggesting that Scotland could swing the election. This upends a lot of conventional SNP "wisdom".
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 8th June 2017, 11:29 PM   #118
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Gosh I was very wrong.

I guess a lot of people did what Mrs Don and I did - when we were alone with our ballot paper we realised that the only way to stop the Conservatives was to vote for the party most likely to defeat them, in our case Labour.

Our local Conservative MP (and colossal tool) David Davies got re-elected with a larger share of the vote but a slightly smaller majority as the UKIP vote collapsed and all other parties except Labour lost a few votes.
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Old 8th June 2017, 11:30 PM   #119
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Surprised to see Labour up 10% in my constituency - didn't make the slightest bit of difference to the result of course.
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Old 8th June 2017, 11:31 PM   #120
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I got it wrong.

The Conservatives have won only a pyrrhic victory, now reliant on the DUP to form a government with a majority slightly less than they had before when they governed alone*. Labour have done better than expected, but only achieved the sort of result that Gordon Brown achieved in 2005, and done it mainly in London and Scotland, and by bribing students. The Lib Dems confounded me, getting a reduced vote share but an increased number of seats. The thing I am most delighted to be wrong about, however, was the SNP result in Scotland. They're down by 20 odd seats, and any thoughts of a second Indyref just went out of the window (there was virtually a 2:1 vote for unionist candidates north of the border). About the only thing I got right was the demise of Ukip.

What a bloody mess.

Oh, and Darat............when I said this election would produce a 2 party result, maybe you understand now.

*The maths is easy. 7 Sinn Fein MPs won't take their seats, and the speaker doesn't count. Therefore the working majority number is 321, and the Conservatives are forecast to have 318, plus the DUP's 10.
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