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Tags political predictions , uk elections , uk politics

View Poll Results: Predict the result of UK General Election 2017
Conservative majority of 100+ 7 10.94%
Conservative majority of 76 to 100 4 6.25%
Conservative majority of 51 to 75 9 14.06%
Conservative majority of 26 to 50 7 10.94%
Conservative majority of 1 to 25 14 21.88%
Hung parliament 19 29.69%
Labour majority of 1 to 25 3 4.69%
Labour majority of 26 to 50 0 0%
Labour majority of 51 to 75 0 0%
Labour majority of 76 to 100 0 0%
Labour majority of 100+ 1 1.56%
Voters: 64. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 9th June 2017, 12:06 AM   #121
Darat
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Originally Posted by MikeG View Post
I got it wrong.

The Conservatives have won only a pyrrhic victory, now reliant on the DUP to form a government with a majority slightly less than they had before when they governed alone*. Labour have done better than expected, but only achieved the sort of result that Gordon Brown achieved in 2005, and done it mainly in London and Scotland, and by bribing students. The Lib Dems confounded me, getting a reduced vote share but an increased number of seats. The thing I am most delighted to be wrong about, however, was the SNP result in Scotland. They're down by 20 odd seats, and any thoughts of a second Indyref just went out of the window (there was virtually a 2:1 vote for unionist candidates north of the border). About the only thing I got right was the demise of Ukip.

What a bloody mess.

Oh, and Darat............when I said this election would produce a 2 party result, maybe you understand now.

*The maths is easy. 7 Sinn Fein MPs won't take their seats, and the speaker doesn't count. Therefore the working majority number is 321, and the Conservatives are forecast to have 318, plus the DUP's 10.
Never didn't understand you but again I'd say "and when hasn't that really been the case?" Apart from two blips in recentish times it has always been the case that you have a choice of a Labour or Conservative government.
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Old 9th June 2017, 12:31 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I guess a lot of people did what Mrs Don and I did - when we were alone with our ballot paper we realised that the only way to stop the Conservatives was to vote for the party most likely to defeat them, in our case Labour.
It says a lot about how bad FPTP voting is when you have to vote strategically like this. It's great if you prefer a two party system but disenfranchising for anybody else.

Of course, the UK rejected an AV proposal not so long ago so, as always, you get the government that you deserve.
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Old 9th June 2017, 12:37 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by Mid View Post
Well I voted for a small Tory majority and will stick with it for now although hoping not
Well it would appear I was a bit wrong on this prediction
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Old 9th June 2017, 12:39 AM   #124
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A good result, a chance for hope, and a genuine pleasure to see the look on Queen Theresa's fizzog this morning.

Shame about the SNP's performance, but nice to see UKIP all-but-dead.

I'm glad that it wasn't a straight-up Labour win (not that I expected such a thing would come to pass). A win would have meant that Labour would be further drawn into the Brexit debacle, and for ideological reasons I want the ownership of Brexit (from inception to referendum to negotiation to its inevitable cack-handed denouement) to lie squarely with the Tories.

For now, the sun is out, the washing's on the line, the coffee's on the go, and for the first time in months I'm smiling : )
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:24 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think that it's going to be an absolute bloodbath for Labour. Their recent rebound in the polls IMO is combination of a dead cat bounce and a reaction to unpopular Conservative policies for social care payment and dropping the triple lock (both of which are, IMO, sensible policies).

IMO when the electorate are in the voting booth and they actually have to put cross to paper then in times of uncertainly they will default to voting for the party currently in power.

I wouldn't be at all surprised by a Conservative majority of 150+ and wouldn't be shocked by 200+. I think they will win more seats in Scotland than Labour (who I reckon may actually be wiped out there). Regarding the other parties on the mainland:

SNP - will lose a very few seats to the LibDems and Conservatives but will still have around 50 seats.
LibDem - will stage a (very) minor recovery and may get into double figures seatwise
Plaid Cymru - will maintain support but won't get any more seats
Green - will sadly lose their seat but will increase their vote nationally by a significant margin
UKIP - will happily lose their seat but may crucially gain votes from Labour in some of the Labour heartlands and allow the Conservative Party to win those seats

Turnout will be even lower than in recent and once again it will be pointed out that the under-25s were seriously under-represented.
Glad I don't have to rely on my political acumen to earn a living .

6 predictions, two correct (one of which, UKIP was inevitable), two wrong, and two completely and utterly wrong....
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:41 AM   #126
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
I have a rather difficult decision to make on Thursday on whether I employ my tactical vote for the lib dems or not. I promised never to do so after voting for them in 2010. If I thought it would make a difference I probably would hold my nose and do it but given that our ukip candidate has been suspended for being too racist even for ukip I think the little englander and casual racist vote will see a Tory landslide

That being the case I might as well vote Green although they have as much chance of winning as I do to be honest.
Had the same dilema, your constituency sounds very much like mine, voted LibDem (strategically) and the Tory wassock was returned with a greater majority.
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Old 9th June 2017, 02:07 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Never didn't understand you but again I'd say "and when hasn't that really been the case?" Apart from two blips in recentish times it has always been the case that you have a choice of a Labour or Conservative government.
We may indeed be having one of those blips again if the spectre of the Reverand Ian Paisley's party is going to be joining the Tories in government.
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Old 9th June 2017, 02:49 AM   #128
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Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!
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Old 9th June 2017, 02:51 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!
.....and Zac Goldsmith by 45, from memory.
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Old 9th June 2017, 02:51 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!
Was that the one that prompted Dimbleby to shout 'bloody hell!' down his live mic?

That's not an example of how every vote counts incidentally, it's an example of how SOME votes count.

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Old 9th June 2017, 03:13 AM   #131
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Every vote does count. Maybe not for what you want it to count for, but they all matter. Every single one.
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Old 9th June 2017, 03:36 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Was that the one that prompted Dimbleby to shout 'bloody hell!' down his live mic?

That's not an example of how every vote counts incidentally, it's an example of how SOME votes count.
OK.
Canterbury.
Tory seat since WW1.
Not anymore.

This is the thing, you can't easily tell when a seat will suddenly become an achievable target.
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Old 9th June 2017, 04:39 AM   #133
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The head of Survation was right about this election as close as can reasonably be forecast. Here he is being ruthlessly mocked on the Daily Politics, though he turned out to be right:

https://youtu.be/9F-n3QhGZ7M?t=219

ETA: His name's Damian Lyons Lowe. I wonder if he will turn out to be the UK's Nate Silver.
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Old 9th June 2017, 05:42 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by Worm View Post
Every vote does count. Maybe not for what you want it to count for, but they all matter. Every single one.
Clearly not true by any meaningful measure. None of the votes for Monster Raving Loony for example mattered a jot.
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Old 9th June 2017, 05:44 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
OK.
Canterbury.
Tory seat since WW1.
Not anymore.

This is the thing, you can't easily tell when a seat will suddenly become an achievable target.
And that's why I voted Lib dem. But it made no difference. It didn't matter in the slightest. And had I not voted the outcome would have been zero different.
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Old 9th June 2017, 05:48 AM   #136
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Clearly not true by any meaningful measure. None of the votes for Monster Raving Loony for example mattered a jot.
Honestly not trying to be pedantic, but it really does depend on what you view as 'meaningful'.

In the high level, grand scheme of things, in terms of having an elected representative, no, those small number of votes had no effect. But as part of the overall system, to the candidate that stood, to those people that voted for them, to how it feeds into the whole glorious mess of nonsense that we call a democratic system - yes, they all matter. Maybe not to you, but to someone. Even if seeing someone they know get a few votes encourages someone to think about voting next time, or maybe even stand themselves, it all matters.
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Old 9th June 2017, 06:15 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Interesting example of why every votes does count, one MP was elected by a majority of 2 votes!
Fife North; the Lib Dems are understandably asking for another recount, since they were shown to have won on an earlier count.
Originally Posted by Tolls View Post
OK.
Canterbury.
Tory seat since WW1.
Not anymore.

This is the thing, you can't easily tell when a seat will suddenly become an achievable target.
Students have made a big difference in a number of seats.
Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
Clearly not true by any meaningful measure. None of the votes for Monster Raving Loony for example mattered a jot.
Maybe, but a surprising number of MRLP policies have ended up being adopted by other parties and enacted in law.
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Old 9th June 2017, 06:23 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by Archie Gemmill Goal View Post
And that's why I voted Lib dem. But it made no difference. It didn't matter in the slightest. And had I not voted the outcome would have been zero different.
The current outcome yes.
These things take a long time (with our current system) to produce changes.
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Old 9th June 2017, 11:02 AM   #139
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I was right about the hung Parliament, but I underestimated the LibDems and overestimated the SNP. My constituency went Tory, and I've already emailed and tweeted my new MP to find out whether he's happy about the proposed pact with the appalling DUP.

This whole thing must call Theresa May's future into question. The 12 Tory MPs who lost their seats (13 if Kensington & Chelsea's recount results in a Labour gain) have lost them as a direct result of May's arrogance.
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Old 9th June 2017, 11:21 AM   #140
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This isn't the time for such matters Agatha, we need steady and stable government and need to concentrate on Brexit. Remember if it hadn't been for the perfidious Labour not keeping their promise to be wiped out we wouldn't be having this disruption!
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:02 PM   #141
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What was I thinking? Strongandstablestrongandstablestrongandstable....

Reigate MP Crispin Blunt says it's all the silly voters fault for not voting the way he thinks we should have done.

Quote:
He said, as it became clear there was no overall majority: "If you end up with numbers like that, the electorate plainly have got it wrong. They've presented the country with a situation where it is going to be extremely difficult to put together a governing coalition."
How dare we have opinions and vote accordingly!
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:17 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
I was right about the hung Parliament, but I underestimated the LibDems and overestimated the SNP. My constituency went Tory, and I've already emailed and tweeted my new MP to find out whether he's happy about the proposed pact with the appalling DUP.

This whole thing must call Theresa May's future into question. The 12 Tory MPs who lost their seats (13 if Kensington & Chelsea's recount results in a Labour gain) have lost them as a direct result of May's arrogance.
They have indeed lost Kensington. I thought Corby had really lost his mind when he backed overriding the 5 year rule, now?
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:21 PM   #143
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Originally Posted by Agatha View Post
What was I thinking? Strongandstablestrongandstablestrongandstable....

Reigate MP Crispin Blunt says it's all the silly voters fault for not voting the way he thinks we should have done.



How dare we have opinions and vote accordingly!
That reeks of Bertolt Brecht's "Die Lösung", about the 1953 GDR uprising:
Quote:
After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:25 PM   #144
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It will not be long before the bookies start giving odds on how long May can survive as PM.
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:42 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
It will not be long before the bookies start giving odds on how long May can survive as PM.
Paddy Power have odds for next leader of the Tories, who will resign first - Corbyn or May, date of next election and quite a few others, but not yet how long May will survive. http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politi...cs/uk-politics
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Old 9th June 2017, 01:58 PM   #146
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I keep on hearing from the pundits that the only reason May is still PM is the Brexit Negotiations start next week, and the 1922 Committee(The Tories Tribal Elders) feel it's important that the start of the negotiations not be delayed,which a leadership crisis would do,and once negogiations are started, May will be expendable. One thing is sure, the 1922 committee is notorious for being ruthless with failure,and yesterday was a massive failure.
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Old 9th June 2017, 03:11 PM   #147
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I keep on hearing from the pundits that the only reason May is still PM is the Brexit Negotiations start next week, and the 1922 Committee(The Tories Tribal Elders) feel it's important that the start of the negotiations not be delayed,which a leadership crisis would do,and once negogiations are started, May will be expendable. One thing is sure, the 1922 committee is notorious for being ruthless with failure,and yesterday was a massive failure.
In part, May's elevation to Prime Minister is what began talk of a general election in the first place. If someone took over from her then would they pursue the same course or a different one? If it is the same, then wouldn't a leadership challenge be superfluous? If it is different then wouldn't it just prompt calls for yet another election? If that's the case, then it would make a mockery of the last election.

But party stability is only one concern for certain politicians. May has to be wondering who the Francis Urquart types are in her party. This is one reason why she will avoid a cabinet reshuffle.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 9th June 2017, 11:42 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
This isn't the time for such matters Agatha, we need steady and stable government and need to concentrate on Brexit. Remember if it hadn't been for the perfidious Labour not keeping their promise to be wiped out we wouldn't be having this disruption!
What do you think are the chances for good progress in the Brexit negotiations. and for any kind of stability? For myself, I know that whatever happens is not going to alter the rest of my life that much, but I'd like to be able to thinkthat the future is going to be reasonable for my sons and granddaughters.
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Old 10th June 2017, 05:43 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by SusanB-M1 View Post
What do you think are the chances for good progress in the Brexit negotiations. and for any kind of stability? For myself, I know that whatever happens is not going to alter the rest of my life that much, but I'd like to be able to thinkthat the future is going to be reasonable for my sons and granddaughters.
Well, by May's own reckoning her chances were not strong enough before the election. And logically they must be far worse now. So she and her party's confidence of success are low.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 10th June 2017, 06:13 AM   #150
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Well, by May's own reckoning her chances were not strong enough before the election. And logically they must be far worse now. So she and her party's confidence of success are low.
Yes, I think she should ask the electorate if they really intend to give her a mandate.

Meanwhile, Donald Tusk can send another couple of tweets which essentially say "Tick tock".
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Old 10th June 2017, 06:34 AM   #151
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On another forum (R&E) there was this link which I liked since it raised a smile!

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-...-jeremy-corbyn
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Old 10th June 2017, 07:02 AM   #152
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Originally Posted by SusanB-M1 View Post
What do you think are the chances for good progress in the Brexit negotiations. and for any kind of stability? For myself, I know that whatever happens is not going to alter the rest of my life that much, but I'd like to be able to thinkthat the future is going to be reasonable for my sons and granddaughters.
Too late for that, we have already decided to leave the EU.
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Old 10th June 2017, 08:00 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by SusanB-M1 View Post
On another forum (R&E) there was this link which I liked since it raised a smile!

http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-...-jeremy-corbyn
Hilarious!

(too bad tho' that a couple of times American spelling seeps thru).
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Old 10th June 2017, 09:58 AM   #154
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Too late for that, we have already decided to leave the EU.
Thank you for your reply. I suppose that, if the under-18s had been allowed to vote in the referendum, there might have been a win for the remain vote. I don't suppose there is any chance of the end of the negotiations resulting in a cancellation of the exit.
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Old 10th June 2017, 10:00 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
Hilarious!

(too bad tho' that a couple of times American spelling seeps thru).
As I use a screen reader, I did not notice! Can you say where the American spelling occurred?
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Old 10th June 2017, 10:05 AM   #156
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Originally Posted by SusanB-M1 View Post
As I use a screen reader, I did not notice! Can you say where the American spelling occurred?
"armor" and "succor".
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Old 10th June 2017, 10:57 PM   #157
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dtt - Thank you.
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Old 12th June 2017, 05:53 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Never didn't understand you but again I'd say "and when hasn't that really been the case?" Apart from two blips in recentish times it has always been the case that you have a choice of a Labour or Conservative government.
The impact is in the size of the majority; Theresa May got a higher vote share than 1987, but has a minority government rather than a 100 seat majority. Similarly Jeremy Corbyn votes are higher than 2005 but he still lost.

Are the current leaders poor, or just unluckier than their predecessors?
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Old 12th June 2017, 06:17 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
The impact is in the size of the majority; Theresa May got a higher vote share than 1987, but has a minority government rather than a 100 seat majority. Similarly Jeremy Corbyn votes are higher than 2005 but he still lost.

Are the current leaders poor, or just unluckier than their predecessors?

I think, possibly, 'Minority party' = 'UKIP' = 'Barefaced liars' in the eyes of a lot of people who wavered from the two largest parties.
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Old 12th June 2017, 01:06 PM   #160
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Only in La La land would a party get more seats than all their direct opponents put together and people would call it a loss.

Less than 10 years ago the SNP had 6 seats. They had 491K votes. Now they have 35 seats and around double the vote.

2015 was a freak result. SNP still have a mandate in Scotland.
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