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Tags Alabama elections , Alabama politics , Doug Jones , political predictions , prediction thread , roy moore

View Poll Results: Who will win the senate seat
Roy Moore 60 68.18%
Doug Jones 5 5.68%
Don’t know/Planet X/third option 23 26.14%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 13th December 2017, 06:30 PM   #681
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
You didn't see that?

Quote:
In Moore's June appearance, one of the hosts says he would like to see an amendment that would void all the amendments after the Tenth.

"That would eliminate many problems," Moore replied. "You know people don't understand how some of these amendments have completely tried to wreck the form of government that our forefathers intended."

Moore cited the 17th Amendment, which calls for the direct election of senators by voters rather than state legislatures, as one he particularly found troublesome.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...men/index.html
So Moore DIDN'T say that. Even for Moore, this is an outrageous idea.

13th Abolishes slavery, and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.
14th Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.
15th Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude
17th Establishes the direct election of United States Senators by popular vote.
19th Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on sex.
23rd Grants the District of Columbia electors (the number of electors being equal to the least populous state) in the Electoral College.
24th Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.
26th Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens, eighteen years of age or older, to vote on account of age.
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Old 13th December 2017, 06:32 PM   #682
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
So Moore DIDN'T say that. Even for Moore, this is an outrageous idea.

13th Abolishes slavery, and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.
14th Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.
15th Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude
17th Establishes the direct election of United States Senators by popular vote.
19th Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on sex.
23rd Grants the District of Columbia electors (the number of electors being equal to the least populous state) in the Electoral College.
24th Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.
26th Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens, eighteen years of age or older, to vote on account of age.
To be fair, craig4 said he suggested and I just linked to the story.
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Old 13th December 2017, 06:39 PM   #683
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
You know, something tells me that pandering to the 25% who put you over the top, and pissing off the 75% that supported you all the time and are your base, might not be a very good re-election strategy.
I think you might have those numbers reversed. Trump's base is smaller than the large number of people he conned who now realize they were conned.

It would seem about 30-35% of voters make up Trump's base and refuse to give up the fantasy. That number is shrinking slowly.
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Old 13th December 2017, 06:41 PM   #684
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Originally Posted by Loss Leader View Post
The question of the day: Is the Jones victory a harbinger of things to come for the Democrats, or is it a one-time rejection of a particularly noxious candidate?
I wasn't there, but have heard from others that Jones ran an uninspiring "I'm not him" campaign. If the Democrats take from this the lesson that that's good enough, they'll set themselves up for more losses with more wrong campaigning.
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Old 13th December 2017, 07:01 PM   #685
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African American voters punched above their weight in this election and it was probably enough to make the difference.

African American Voters Made Doug Jones a U.S. Senator in Alabama

Quote:
The state’s Black Belt made big turnout gains in support of the Democratic candidate, providing his margin of victory in the Senate special election in a deep-red state.
Quote:
Exit polls showed that black voters made a big splash. The Washington Post’s exit polls indicated that black voters would make up 28 percent of the voters, greater than their 26 percent share of the population, which would be a dramatic turnaround from previous statewide special elections in the South, including a special election for the Sixth District in Georgia, which saw black support for Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff dissipate on Election Day.
At first you might think that the difference between 26% and 28% isn't so much, but it's 2% and Jones' margin of victory was 1.5%. The NYT counts 1,344,406 total votes, and 2% of that would be 26,888. Jones' margin of victory was 20,715 and 98% of African Americans voted for Jones. So by showing up to the polls in larger numbers than their share of the population, they probably made the difference.

Quote:
As the Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman noted on Twitter, turnout was particularly high in the counties with the largest black populations. In Greene County, a small area that is 80 percent black and that Martin Luther King Jr. frequented in his Poor People’s Campaign, the turnout reached 78 percent of that of 2016, an incredible mark given that special elections and midterms usually fall far short of general-election marks. Perry County, also an important mostly black site of voting-rights battles of old, turned out at 75 percent of 2016 levels. Dallas County, whose seat is the city of Selma, hit the 74 percent mark. And while the exact numbers aren’t in for all of the majority-black or heavily black counties, black voters appear to have favored Jones at rates close to or more than 90 percent.

Meanwhile, Moore’s support sagged in mostly white counties. The race was probably over for the former state chief justice when Cullman County, which is virtually all white and heavily supported Trump in 2016, turned out only at 56 percent of its 2016 level. It really does seem that although many white voters weren’t convinced to vote for Jones, the allegations against Moore persuaded many of them to stay home.

These results demolish the preestablished media narrative about black voters in the state and defy conventional wisdom. Black voters were informed and mobilized to go vote, and did so even in the face of significant barriers.
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Old 13th December 2017, 11:03 PM   #686
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Will the higher than usual turnout of black voters be used by the GOP as evidence of voter fraud on a massive scale, declare the result void and ask for a do-over with a less child-molesty candidate and rather fewer blacks on the voting rolls ?
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Old 13th December 2017, 11:29 PM   #687
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
I wasn't there, but have heard from others that Jones ran an uninspiring "I'm not him" campaign. If the Democrats take from this the lesson that that's good enough, they'll set themselves up for more losses with more wrong campaigning.
Wow! Does this post ever miss the boat. That's not the campaign he waged at all.

Try again: Who is Doug Jones, the civil rights champion who beat Roy Moore in Alabama?
Quote:
Mr Jones had never run for office before but he had garnered a reputation for championing civil rights causes after successfully prosecuting two members of the Ku Klux Klan nearly 40 years after they bombed a black church in Birmingham, Alabama.
The infamous white supremacist attack on the 16th Street Baptist Church in 1963 killed four young girls and galvanised support for the civil rights movement.
"Justice may have been delayed, but it was certainly not denied," Mr Jones said of the case, which he called "the most tarnishing crime in Alabama in the 20th century."
Blacks played a key role in electing Trump.

And that is really a good thing.
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Old 14th December 2017, 12:02 AM   #688
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
Yes
That strikes me as making the idea of best interest meaningless. If any vote is always in one's best interest whether it's based on truth or lies, sound judgment or error, intelligent evaluation or emotion, then you've actually said nothing except that a vote happened.
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Old 14th December 2017, 01:32 AM   #689
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
So Democrats wanted republicans to reject Roy Moore. They did. What should the Democrats give them as a thank you?
Already done, they've given them Doug Jones.
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Old 14th December 2017, 04:09 AM   #690
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
African American voters punched above their weight in this election and it was probably enough to make the difference.

African American Voters Made Doug Jones a U.S. Senator in Alabama



At first you might think that the difference between 26% and 28% isn't so much, but it's 2% and Jones' margin of victory was 1.5%. The NYT counts 1,344,406 total votes, and 2% of that would be 26,888. Jones' margin of victory was 20,715 and 98% of African Americans voted for Jones. So by showing up to the polls in larger numbers than their share of the population, they probably made the difference.
I'm sorry to say those are wrong and manipulations of the results.

Just the number of white women above 50 that wouldn't have the stomach to vote Moore and stayed home is certainly highly above those 26888 or 20715. Jones got a number of votes in the order Hillary did; Moore got a half of Trump's. Case closed. Still an abnormally high turnout for a special one-dude election? How about this: voters who wanted to vote against Republicans + voters who wanted to vote against a shady character (reinforcement) versus voters who wanted to vote against Democratic - voters who didn't want to vote for a shady character (self-compensating).

Besides, the mulatto-negroe electorate is approximately divided in 2% Republican, 75% Democratic and 23% independent. That's why in recent times an attractive Republican candidate could get up to 20% of votes within that population, while a positively unattractive like Moore got just 4%.

So "black" vote is not a cause here, but a consequence of being congruent.

A few days before the election, in other thread, I said that I was afraid that Moore would win by the skin of his teeth unless a certain number of write-ins prevented it. I had no way to estimate the real turnout among white voters: in opinion polls asking registered voters, 50% of them said that they would certainly vote, 10% that they very likely would and another 10% that they likely would. Half of them wouldn't do what they intended to do, so Jones winning was not as unlikely as the most serious pollsters showed.

Jones victory is an isolated event that leaves these teachings: both parties, but most of all Republicans, have to make an effort to reject shady, colourful, controversial, nothing-beyond-populist candidates in the screening of the primaries. The false democracy needs to be even falser and the establishments must do whatever necessary to avoid new Moores.
Also, the Democratic path to victory is made of young people. Forget the race: young folk has them all.

An this is by itself the whole point. Here are some roughly numbers behind the awful truth that made the Trump era possible:

[Data taken from exit poll paid by The Washington Post, and from the Bureau of Census for 2015 for Alabama]

Voters age 18-29: 13% of total voters
Voters age 65 or more: 23% of total voters

Inhabitants age 18-29: 16% of total (maybe a 10% of them are foreigners)
Inhabitants age 65+: 16% of total

I'll repeat it and continue to repeat it non stop : there's no future for the United States if they can't bring a cultural change departing of making young people aware of them being the culprits of the current political situation. Should the status quo persist, prepare for Trump's second period, as he has eighteenth century laws, gerrymandering and a bovine population (both blue and red races) on his side (95% of the population is Trumpist -some in favour, some against-).
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Old 14th December 2017, 04:28 AM   #691
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I would ask the 25% what they would like me to do.
It was a secret ballot, remember? How would you ever know who those 25% (a number you made up, of course) are?
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Old 14th December 2017, 04:28 AM   #692
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
Moore is calling for a recount.

The vote was probably not close enough to automatically trigger one, but Moore could still get one if he pays for it. I don't know how much that costs. Watch for more donation solicitations.

One of the Senators from Colorado is calling for Jones to "do the right thing" by voting with the Senate Republicans.

By that rationale surely Trump should be taking instructions from Hillary?
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Old 14th December 2017, 04:47 AM   #693
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
They were heard to say "Where the White Women at?"

And then they stole Moore's horse because, poor thing needs a new home.

Just reporting the rumor.
Glad you didn't relate what they did to the horse.
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Old 14th December 2017, 05:45 AM   #694
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
That strikes me as making the idea of best interest meaningless. If any vote is always in one's best interest whether it's based on truth or lies, sound judgment or error, intelligent evaluation or emotion, then you've actually said nothing except that a vote happened.
It doesn't make the idea meaningless. The idea is meaningless, and people try to spin it to say that their policy ideas are meaningful.

All you are doing is taking your values, assessing others against it, and saying it is not in their interest. They are doing the same thing.

Last edited by BobTheCoward; 14th December 2017 at 06:13 AM.
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Old 14th December 2017, 05:48 AM   #695
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
It was a secret ballot, remember? How would you ever know who those 25% (a number you made up, of course) are?
When I ask, people are free to say who they voted for and what their position is.
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Old 14th December 2017, 06:10 AM   #696
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Moore statement posted last night:

https://youtu.be/X2cck_Eup00

Last edited by Fast Eddie B; 14th December 2017 at 06:12 AM.
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Old 14th December 2017, 07:49 AM   #697
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
When I ask, people are free to say who they voted for and what their position is.
And they are free to lie to you, which would be in their best interest if they din not vote Jones. It would thus be foolish for him to listen to Republican voters.
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Old 14th December 2017, 07:54 AM   #698
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
And they are free to lie to you, which would be in their best interest if they din not vote Jones. It would thus be foolish for him to listen to Republican voters.
I don't care if they are lying or not. I would navigate the issue to the best of my ability.
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Old 14th December 2017, 08:43 AM   #699
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I don't care if they are lying or not. I would navigate the issue to the best of my ability.
This is equivalent to not caring what the answers are.
Which makes asking pointless.

You can navigate issues to the best of your ability whether you ask or not.

I hope that is what Jones shall do, rather than listening to either traitorous or lying Republicans.
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Old 14th December 2017, 09:19 AM   #700
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
This is equivalent to not caring what the answers are.
Which makes asking pointless.

You can navigate issues to the best of your ability whether you ask or not.

I hope that is what Jones shall do, rather than listening to either traitorous or lying Republicans.
I prefer cavalier.
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Old 14th December 2017, 09:39 AM   #701
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Guess who it was came in third, with 20,500 votes? Don't forget, this is Alabama...

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/201...ore-doug-jones
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Old 14th December 2017, 09:52 AM   #702
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Originally Posted by Frank Newgent View Post
Guess who it was came in third, with 20,500 votes? Don't forget, this is Alabama...

https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/201...ore-doug-jones
Well it is better than the 2 names I thought of.

I guessed it would be George Wallace or Bull Connor.
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Old 14th December 2017, 09:53 AM   #703
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Alabama Gerrymandering: Doug Jones won 1 congressional district while Roy Moore won 6...

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/statu...35425929371648
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Old 14th December 2017, 10:01 AM   #704
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Well it is better than the 2 names I thought of.

I guessed it would be George Wallace or Bull Connor.

What about Bear Bryant or Ronnie Van Zant?
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Old 14th December 2017, 10:08 AM   #705
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Originally Posted by Frank Newgent View Post
What about Bear Bryant or Ronnie Van Zant?
Those of course I can imagine along with Nathan Bedord Forrest and Byron De La Beckwith.
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Old 14th December 2017, 10:11 AM   #706
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
I prefer cavalier.
I prefer semi-dark cocolate.
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Old 14th December 2017, 10:19 AM   #707
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
This is why I'm not a big fan of democracy.
Those of us who are not fans of violent revolution find it to be a reasonable alternative.
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Old 14th December 2017, 10:20 AM   #708
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
Alabama Gerrymandering: Doug Jones won 1 congressional district while Roy Moore won 6...

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/statu...35425929371648
Republicans hate democracy -- for a reason.
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