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Tags Alabama elections , Alabama politics , Doug Jones , political predictions , prediction thread , roy moore

View Poll Results: Who will win the senate seat
Roy Moore 60 68.18%
Doug Jones 5 5.68%
Don稚 know/Planet X/third option 23 26.14%
Voters: 88. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12th December 2017, 08:39 PM   #321
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Reports are blacks put Jones over the top, so much for ID laws being oppressive.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:39 PM   #322
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Trump is probably just going to say that he tried to go with Luther Strange, but was forced to go with Moore. Trump will just claim to have been right.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:40 PM   #323
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So much winning.

I'd be curious to know how much Trump's endorsement either helped or hurt Moore, though I'm not sure how you could even reliably measure that.

Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I want go hug a leftie in Alabama right now. OMG. Happy tears.

Hug a rightie instead; they'll need it.

Originally Posted by William Parcher View Post
The ISF poll was way the hell off.

Cynicism is powerful.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:40 PM   #324
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Lol
Lol, logger, looks like we were right!
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:41 PM   #325
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Reports are blacks put Jones over the top, so much for ID laws being oppressive.
Both statements can easily be true at the same time.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:41 PM   #326
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
A lot of folks here seemed to think Moore had this in the bag easily...

Clearly a lot of people in Alabama voted outside their box.

It looks like the Dems sacrificed Franken for nothing.
Only in Alabama is not voting for the child molester considered "outside the box".

Oh and Franken is not gone yet.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:41 PM   #327
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Reports are blacks put Jones over the top, so much for ID laws being oppressive.
LOL.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:42 PM   #328
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Democrats are counting on us still being in "peak-trump-effect". They, of course, don't see it as a positive. Ed Gillespie chose to run as a Trump clone without using his name. Evidently people behaving like Trump don't get Trump votes. Moore had his direct support. Moore had Bannon's direct support. Moore lost them one of the safest seats in the Senate, the seat where no one would even run last time against Jefferson the Traitor Elf.

Donnie Johnny has lost twice in Alabama. He lost to Moore when he was backing Strange and blamed Strange. He then got behind Moore, long before this week; he said he backed him the night of the primary win! Now he lost again.

So, noooooooo, we don't want to be past-peak-Trump. We want him to get out there and hit the campaign trail early in 2018.
Lol

Trump had nothing to do with Moore losing. Just as Trump wouldn稚 have had anything to do with his winning.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:42 PM   #329
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Roy Moore certainly liked this night much more when it was younger.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:42 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Reports are blacks put Jones over the top, so much for in spite of ID laws being oppressive.
FTFY
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:43 PM   #331
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Looks like decency and common sense won for a change.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:43 PM   #332
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Looks like Mitch is going to have to break the Senate rules again so that they can get their tax bill.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:43 PM   #333
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Lol, logger, looks like we were right!
I知 happy for your side, you guys really needed a win. You値l have the seat for two years.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:43 PM   #334
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Democrats are counting on us still being in "peak-trump-effect". They, of course, don't see it as a positive. Ed Gillespie chose to run as a Trump clone without using his name. Evidently people behaving like Trump don't get Trump votes. Moore had his direct support. Moore had Bannon's direct support. Moore lost them one of the safest seats in the Senate, the seat where no one would even run last time against Jefferson the Traitor Elf.

Donnie Johnny has lost twice in Alabama. He lost to Moore when he was backing Strange and blamed Strange. He then got behind Moore, long before this week; he said he backed him the night of the primary win! Now he lost again.

So, noooooooo, we don't want to be past-peak-Trump. We want him to get out there and hit the campaign trail early in 2018.
OTOH, if "peak Trump" means the peak of his perceived political capital, I have to think this is a hard blow to the "Trump Brand".

Will Republicans next year want his endorsement or will they run away from him? I think the latter looks increasingly likely.

Steve Bannon also takes a big hit here. Bannon and Breitbart went all-in on Roy Moore.

Speaking of which, schadenfruede time:
http://www.breitbart.com/

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Old 12th December 2017, 08:44 PM   #335
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Reports are blacks put Jones over the top, so much for ID laws being oppressive.
Now, now. Let's remember your rants from 2016. It wasn't the black turnout; it was whitey staying home.

Apparently the Reverend Lou is wrong and not all white folks are the devil. Some of the bible thumpers, many of them in fact, who the kiddie diddler counted on opted to stay home.

Just as Hillary lost because her birthright supporters stayed home, Jones lost because his die-hard supporters did, too.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:44 PM   #336
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
FTFY
Interesting logic there.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:44 PM   #337
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Stacko is right. We got this through the end of the Trump/Pence presidency.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United..._Alabama,_2017



There wouldn't have been a special until next year if the "Love Guv" hadn't resigned in the face of impeachment.
The Senate's now in play in 2018.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:44 PM   #338
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Quote:
It looks like the Dems sacrificed Franken for nothing.
What makes you think he'll be replaced by a Republican?

Last edited by Jerrymander; 12th December 2017 at 08:46 PM.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:44 PM   #339
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
I’m happy for your side, you guys really needed a win. You’ll have the seat for two years.
Three, Or do you know something we don't?

Last edited by lobosrul5; 12th December 2017 at 08:46 PM.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:45 PM   #340
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
I知 happy for your side, you guys really needed a win. You値l have the seat for two years.
Longer than you people will have a president.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:45 PM   #341
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Originally Posted by Spindrift View Post
Only in Alabama is not voting for the child molester considered "outside the box".

Oh and Franken is not gone yet.
Well, the box the predictors put them in. Obviously many were never actually in such a box.

I think I'm on record as doubtful that Franken will resign.

I never thought he should.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 PM   #342
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Lol

Trump had nothing to do with Moore losing. Just as Trump wouldn稚 have had anything to do with his winning.
You're right Trump didn't have anything to do with him winning.

He's 0 for 2 on endorsements in Alabama!
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 PM   #343
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
A lot of folks here seemed to think Moore had this in the bag easily...

Clearly a lot of people in Alabama voted outside their box.

It looks like the Dems sacrificed Franken for nothing.
Did they? How do you know that the Franken sacrifice isn't what put Jones over the top?
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 PM   #344
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Roy Moore certainly liked this night much more when it was younger.
Going to have to nom this one as soon as my 60 seconds between posts it up.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 PM   #345
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
Now, now. Let's remember your rants from 2016. It wasn't the black turnout; it was whitey staying home.

Apparently the Reverend Lou is wrong and not all white folks are the devil. Some of the bible thumpers, many of them in fact, who the kiddie diddler counted on opted to stay home.

Just as Hillary lost because her birthright supporters stayed home, Jones lost because his die-hard supporters did, too.
Don’t you mean Moore? Grammar resistance leader?

Last edited by logger; 12th December 2017 at 08:52 PM.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 PM   #346
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Waiting for Trump to tweet about how millions of illegals were bused in from California to fraudulently vote.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 PM   #347
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Originally Posted by Steve View Post
Skepticism is over-rated
I voted that Moore would win. But that wasn't skepticism, it was pessimism. As well as the knowledge of just how conservative Alabama is.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:46 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
I知 happy for your side, you guys really needed a win. You値l have the seat for two years.
Good job. Don't let the pain get to you. Think positive!
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:47 PM   #349
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Looks like Mitch is going to have to break the Senate rules again so that they can get their tax bill.
Mitch wanted this, imo.

He will be happy about it.

It lets him off a few hooks.
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:47 PM   #350
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I didn't have a prediction for the winner, but I didn't think it would be this close.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:47 PM   #351
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Originally Posted by logger View Post
Interesting logic there.
Accurate is the word you're looking for.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:47 PM   #352
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Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
Longer than you people will have a president.
Sorry, we still have Pence.

You値l really like him.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:47 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
The Senate's now in play in 2018.
Its bizzarely uneven, only a few GOP seats are up. AZ and NV are the only realistic pickups. But tonight makes it possible.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:48 PM   #354
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Originally Posted by Stacko View Post
Agreed. The NYT model has called it for Jones. It's still crazy that an election between Atticus Finch and Humbert Humbert was this close.
Close? In Trump terms this was a huge landslide, biggest win ever, a real mauling.
Anyway, I'm glad I was wrong, too. Let's hope the trend continues next year.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:48 PM   #355
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
Waiting for Trump to tweet about how millions of illegals were bused in from California to fraudulently vote.
Trump is probably going to say something like "I told you not to go with Moore."
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2 prints, same midtarsal crock..., I mean break?
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:48 PM   #356
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Looks like Mitch is going to have to break the Senate rules again so that they can get their tax bill.
He announced he wouldn't allow the winner to be sworn in until next year, keeping Strange in the office.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:50 PM   #357
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Originally Posted by LTC8K6 View Post
Mitch wanted this, imo.

He will be happy about it.

It lets him off a few hooks.
He didn't want Moore in, but he does want the tax bill. I think he's going to steal Doug Jones seat until after the tax bill is voted on.
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:50 PM   #358
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
He announced he wouldn't allow the winner to be sworn in until next year, keeping Strange in the office.
Just like he did when Scott Brown was elected. Oh wait...
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:50 PM   #359
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
...Just as Hillary lost because her birthright supporters stayed home, Jones lost because his die-hard supporters did, too.
Birthright supporters? That is sarcasm, right?
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Old 12th December 2017, 08:51 PM   #360
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Originally Posted by Jerrymander View Post
Good job. Don't let the pain get to you. Think positive!
I learned long ago that letting politics give you pain is always a loser. Ultimately in the long run if you池e counting on anything other than yourself to be successful in this world, you池e going to always be disappointed.
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