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Tags abortion laws , political predictions , prediction threads , Roe v. Wade

View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned
Before 31 December 2020 20 24.39%
Before 31 December 2022 10 12.20%
Before 31 December 2024 5 6.10%
SCOTUS will not pick a case up 16 19.51%
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn 31 37.80%
Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 24th May 2019, 09:41 PM   #161
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
While its good that a notable republican donor is stepping up, the big question is: why was he a republican donor in the first place?



The republican party is known for its ties to christian evangelicalism. He should have known years ago that if the party he has financially supported for years had the opportunity, that there was a chance that a ban on abortions would be a desired outcome for many republican politicians.



Maybe he should have supported the "Leopards eating people's faces" party instead.
Rich guys like tax cuts.
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Old 28th May 2019, 09:47 AM   #162
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Non Roe v Wade attack angle example:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/planned-parenthood-missouri-last-abortion-clinic-says-it-may-lose-its-license-this-week-exclusive-2019-05-28/
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Old 28th May 2019, 10:03 AM   #163
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
A drop in the ocean compared to these guys, though: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/democ...b0db9c29929cd3


All the democracy money can buy...
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Old 30th May 2019, 08:18 AM   #164
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Well, it looks like a few companies might have the right idea:

From: https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-48457401
Bob Iger, the CEO of Disney says Georgia's controversial new anti-abortion law would make it "difficult" for the company to keep filming there.
...
Earlier this week, Netflix said it would "rethink" its operations there with chief content officer Ted Sarandos explaining: "We have many women working on productions in Georgia, whose rights, along with millions of others, will be severely restricted by this law"
...
Comedy actress and writer Kristen Wiig also confirmed to CNN that her new comedy had pulled out of filming in the state while the executive producers of a new Amazon show The Power said it was no longer scouting for filming locations in Georgia because of the controversial bill.


Given the way that republicans have manage to stack the judiciary, I think economic pressure may be the best way to go. A lot of movies and TV shows are filmed in Georgia (thanks in part to government subsidies), but if production companies (and other businesses) start leaving the state, it may cause them to rethink their stance.

The same thing sort of happened in North Carolina... the state brought in a law regarding trans people and their use of the bathroom, which was widely criticized. Several businesses threatened to either pull out of the state, or stop planned expansion plans. As a result the state backed off its initial plans. (They still have some problems with their laws, but economic pressure did force them to back off the worst of their plans.)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...der/729791002/
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Old 30th May 2019, 08:25 AM   #165
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The only way to stop this communist conspiracy of pro-choice activism is to make all companies state-owned and make them to their business in Georgia.
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Old 30th May 2019, 11:39 AM   #166
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Well, it looks like a few companies might have the right idea:

From: https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-48457401
Bob Iger, the CEO of Disney says Georgia's controversial new anti-abortion law would make it "difficult" for the company to keep filming there.
...
Earlier this week, Netflix said it would "rethink" its operations there with chief content officer Ted Sarandos explaining: "We have many women working on productions in Georgia, whose rights, along with millions of others, will be severely restricted by this law"
...
Comedy actress and writer Kristen Wiig also confirmed to CNN that her new comedy had pulled out of filming in the state while the executive producers of a new Amazon show The Power said it was no longer scouting for filming locations in Georgia because of the controversial bill.


Given the way that republicans have manage to stack the judiciary, I think economic pressure may be the best way to go. A lot of movies and TV shows are filmed in Georgia (thanks in part to government subsidies), but if production companies (and other businesses) start leaving the state, it may cause them to rethink their stance.

The same thing sort of happened in North Carolina... the state brought in a law regarding trans people and their use of the bathroom, which was widely criticized. Several businesses threatened to either pull out of the state, or stop planned expansion plans. As a result the state backed off its initial plans. (They still have some problems with their laws, but economic pressure did force them to back off the worst of their plans.)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...der/729791002/
I predict that there will be a 'religious freedom' law suit of some sort
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Old 30th May 2019, 11:43 AM   #167
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Originally Posted by Dancing David View Post
I predict that there will be a 'religious freedom' law suit of some sort
Yup

https://nypost.com/2019/05/29/satani...fetal-remains/
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Old 30th May 2019, 01:33 PM   #168
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Given the way that republicans have manage to stack the judiciary, I think economic pressure may be the best way to go.
I'd be the exact opposite and say this is one area economic pressure won't ever work and will actually harden the antis stance.
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Old 30th May 2019, 01:55 PM   #169
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Quote:
Given the way that republicans have manage to stack the judiciary, I think economic pressure may be the best way to go.
I'd be the exact opposite and say this is one area economic pressure won't ever work and will actually harden the antis stance.
It worked in North Carolina. Despite the false premise that the 'Trans ban' was to "protect the children from molesters hiding in the bathrooms", it didn't take them long to say "Ok, screw the children... we want our money".
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Old 30th May 2019, 05:02 PM   #170
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
It worked in North Carolina. Despite the false premise that the 'Trans ban' was to "protect the children from molesters hiding in the bathrooms", it didn't take them long to say "Ok, screw the children... we want our money".
Pathetic analogy. Trans rights are so far from abortion rights the idea is laughable.

Economy will never affect attitudes to abortion.
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Old 30th May 2019, 07:04 PM   #171
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Meanwhile, in Rhode Island...

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rhode...b0e8085e36bc85
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Old 30th May 2019, 09:19 PM   #172
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Pathetic analogy. Trans rights are so far from abortion rights the idea is laughable.
Economy will never affect attitudes to abortion.
It doesn't have to affect the attitudes of hardcore anti-abortionists.

It only has to affect the people who only pretend to be anti-abortion, but are using the issue to either score cheap political points with the more feeble-minded evangelicals, or to further their bigotry. If the economy starts to go south, all those republicans who claim to be godly (but are anything but) will see their chances of re-election go down the tubes. That's going to make a few of them change their stance.
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Old 31st May 2019, 01:36 AM   #173
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Do yourself a favor and stop reading the Huffington post.
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Old 31st May 2019, 12:06 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
Do yourself a favor and stop reading the Huffington post.
Is that a lesson in how to look like a complete idiot?

The source is irrelevant - the points stated are correct.

Rhode Island
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Old 31st May 2019, 07:10 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Is that a lesson in how to look like a complete idiot?

The source is irrelevant - the points stated are correct.

Rhode Island
The source matters. You, the foreigner, are in the minority in thinking Roe v Wade will be overturned (it won't). It's because you're getting your information from bias sources and you just flat out don't understand US politics.
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Old 1st June 2019, 03:47 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by Baylor View Post
The source matters. You, the foreigner, are in the minority in thinking Roe v Wade will be overturned (it won't). It's because you're getting your information from bias sources and you just flat out don't understand US politics.
You are completely full of it.

I have not stated I think Roe will be overturned. Your "argument" that the Republican states aren't trying to overturn it is nonsense in view of the states who are trying to ban abortion right now.

As to bias[ed] sources, my apologies - I didn't realise Whitehouse.gov and Mike Pence were biased.

Originally Posted by Mike Pence
But life is winning in America ultimately because of all of you and the people that you represent all across this country. It is — as President Trump said well, it is a movement born out of love. In these divided times in the life of our nation, I couldn’t be more proud of the deep compassion of the pro-life movement and the continued commitment to be there to love them both.

I mean, for all the progress since 1973, the resilience of this movement proceeding out of the heart of a compassionate nation, I just know in my heart of hearts that this will be the generation that restores life in America.
bolding mine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...tute-luncheon/

You're right - I don't understand US politics; I absurdly thought the Vice President and President held positions of power.
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Old 1st June 2019, 07:14 PM   #177
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
You are completely full of it.

I have not stated I think Roe will be overturned.
Uh, right here.
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
When does Roe v Wade get thrown out?

With a SCOTUS now built on solidly anti-abortion conservatives, I can see a 5-4 vote devolving legislation to states happening in the very near future.

I reckon the Red Team will be looking for a judgement before the 2020 election, so my pick is within one year.


Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Your "argument" that the Republican states aren't trying to overturn it is nonsense in view of the states who are trying to ban abortion right now.
It's more of a flex on federal supremacy. This is just US style political jockeying. There's more to it than what you read in Huffington Post headlines.
Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
As to bias[ed] sources, my apologies - I didn't realise Whitehouse.gov and Mike Pence were biased.
You didn't?!?!

All of the sudden you believe politicians? Wow. You are gullible
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Old 2nd June 2019, 12:35 PM   #178
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Story from last year on amateur abortion provider services:
https://story.californiasunday.com/abortion-providers
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Old 7th June 2019, 10:25 AM   #179
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Quote:
Alabama Governor Kay Ivey said the new law might be “unenforceable” due to Roe v Wade – the landmark Supreme Court decision that legalised abortion nationwide in 1973 – but said the new law was passed with the aim of challenging that decision.
Link
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Old 28th June 2019, 03:56 PM   #180
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Interesting news on Roe as the Supreme Court declines to hear Alabama's challenge to its uber-restrictive proposals being banned by lower courts. https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-...-idUSKCN1TT22D

In the ruling comes a chilling note from Justice Thomas, that will no doubt breathe further life into Red State attempts to outlaw abortion:

Quote:
The notion that anything in the Constitution prevents states from passing laws prohibiting the dismembering of a living child is implausible.
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Old 9th July 2019, 12:10 PM   #181
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AP News: Abortions halted at Arkansas clinic while new site sought
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Old 10th July 2019, 03:43 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Robin View Post
And that fact alone will deliver Trump a new term.

That and the fact that SCOTUS has ruled that gerrymandering is legal. White Evangelical voters turned out in record numbers in 2016, 81%, up from a previous high of around 64%, and all for Trump. With Roe v. Wade and quite likely another seat on the bench up for grabs, the Dems need someone pretty damned charismatic and motivating to get the votes needed to prevent another four years of Trump. With Biden currently leading in the primary run-up... yeah, no. We're screwed.
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Old 12th August 2019, 09:21 PM   #183
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tennessee-abortion-laws-tennessee-to-push-for-total-abortion-ban-with-sights-on-supreme-court/
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Old 4th October 2019, 10:54 AM   #184
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Counting down...

First up: Louisiana.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/supre...b0da7f66259303
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Old 4th October 2019, 11:13 AM   #185
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Gone are the days when Roe v Wade was considered settled law. Not that it should ever have been considered settled law. So I guess the best thing to do is appreciate it lasting as long as it did, and pragmatically getting on with the Great Work now that the era has ended.

Last edited by theprestige; 4th October 2019 at 11:15 AM.
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Old 4th October 2019, 04:54 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by 8enotto View Post
Drugs are illegal, people seek illegal drugs.
Abortion is illegal, costly and discrete abortions will forever go unreported.

Changing a law won't change what people desire.

Pot is federally illegal and states ignore that. Hell I work at a place that grows and sells it and I have a badge from the police department that says I'm legal to do so.

They also ignore laws about illegal immigration and declare themselves sanctuary states.

Seems like states can do whatever they want nowadays.

But ya, Republicans are frickin' weird when it comes to appeasing the religious right. As if they all live like Jesus and go home and pray really hard for a better world
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Old 19th September 2020, 09:32 PM   #187
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How are the odds looking now?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/conse...b6480e896fae10
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Old 19th September 2020, 09:42 PM   #188
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Huff-Po Op-Ed Boilerplate!! Next!!
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Old 19th September 2020, 10:05 PM   #189
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Roe might be a goner.

But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States.
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Old 19th September 2020, 10:06 PM   #190
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I see that I voted for "Before 31 December 2020" in the poll.

It looks like it probably won't be overturned before then. I don't know if there is any direct challenge to Roe that could possibly make it before the Supreme Court before the end of the year. However, the "Before 31 December 2022" option is now looking like a very real possibility. Regardless of who is elected, assuming Trump gets his nominee confirmed.

I'm still not totally sure that it's a done deal though, even though both Trump and McConnell have signaled that they plan to fill the seat ASAP. If 4 GOP senators vote no, (and of course all Democrats too) then Trump won't be able to fill the seat. But boy are they going to be under a lot of pressure to go along.
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Old 19th September 2020, 10:07 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Roe might be a goner.

But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States.
Doubt it.
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Old 19th September 2020, 10:13 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Doubt it.
I don't.

Female employees who are mobile won't put up with this ****.
The net effect will be that Red States will get even poorer and less developed - which I guess is how Republicans like it.
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Old 19th September 2020, 10:43 PM   #193
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It's my understanding that Roe v Wade succeeded because the Texas anti-abortion laws breached the 14th Amendment.

It's also my understanding that the 14th Amendment is an antiquated mess.

http://hrlibrary.umn.edu/education/a...ts_usconst.htm

Section 2 reads:

"Section 2.
Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. But when the right to vote at any election for the choice of electors for President and Vice-President of the United States, Representatives in Congress, the Executive and Judicial officers of a State, or the members of the Legislature thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants of such State, being twenty-one years of age,* and citizens of the United States, or in any way abridged, except for participation in rebellion, or other crime, the basis of representation therein shall be reduced in the proportion which the number of such male citizens shall bear to the whole number of male citizens twenty-one years of age in such State."


Now, being the annoyingly eternal optimist that I am, I have an idea that there might be new laws set in place with precedents that are actually better than the Roe v Wade decision and less subject to the removal of a woman's bodily autonomy.
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Old 20th September 2020, 03:13 AM   #194
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never mind....
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Old 20th September 2020, 11:45 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Roe might be a goner.

But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States.
I have no doubt that after overturning Roe the upcoming 6-3 court will just go ahead and find a way to outlaw abortion in the blue states as well.
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Old 20th September 2020, 12:06 PM   #196
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
I have no doubt that after overturning Roe the upcoming 6-3 court will just go ahead and find a way to outlaw abortion in the blue states as well.

The most likely scenario along those lines is outlawing interstate travel for the purpose of obtaining an abortion.

To which the blue states respond by strengthening medical privacy laws to make it illegal (if it's not already) to provide any information or cooperate with any investigation of whether an abortion was performed.

To which the Federal government responds with threats of funding cuts.

And so it goes.
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Old 20th September 2020, 01:23 PM   #197
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Originally Posted by Myriad View Post
The most likely scenario along those lines is outlawing interstate travel for the purpose of obtaining an abortion.
There's already the case of the crazy Texan rep who wanted to use the death penalty for attempting to do just that.

I said when Trump was elected it looked like a case of USA and ISIS having a contest to see who can turn the clock back furthest. USA seems to be taking it pretty seriously.
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Old 20th September 2020, 07:33 PM   #198
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There's already the case of the crazy Texan rep who wanted to use the death penalty for attempting to do just that.



I said when Trump was elected it looked like a case of USA and ISIS having a contest to see who can turn the clock back furthest. USA seems to be taking it pretty seriously.
The upcoming SCOTUS will be just fine wit that.
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Old 20th September 2020, 11:01 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
The upcoming SCOTUS will be just fine wit that.
Don't know, both Kavanaugh and Gorsuch have surprised me recently by coming down on the Liberal side of cases. In fact up to now, Kavanaugh seems to have been playing the game as a strict Constitutionist. He might surprise both sides.
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Old 20th September 2020, 11:11 PM   #200
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Roe might be a goner.

But the effect will be that all Blue States will legalize abortion, and the more stupid Red States will ban it ... with the effect that all the big companies will leave the States.
Aside: Bad idea, actually. Move a few jobs that require an education into, say, five pure Red states, and you can swing the electoral college toward civilized policies. Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and the Dakotas could all be swung with little effort. The alternative is "By 2040, two-thirds of Americans will be represented by 30 percent of the Senate"

Time to invade them there backwaters and teach 'em some modrin notions, by golly, or it'll be pitchforks and lynch mobs for government.
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