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Tags abortion laws , political predictions , prediction threads , Roe v. Wade

View Poll Results: When will Roe v Wade be overturned
Before 31 December 2020 20 24.39%
Before 31 December 2022 10 12.20%
Before 31 December 2024 5 6.10%
SCOTUS will not pick a case up 16 19.51%
SCOTUS will pick it up and decline to overturn 31 37.80%
Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 9th March 2021, 08:48 PM   #281
The Atheist
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They're not letting a little thing like Trump losing the White House stop them from trying to ban abortion in states: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/arkan...b617a7e41381ce
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Old 10th March 2021, 02:19 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
They're not letting a little thing like Trump losing the White House stop them from trying to ban abortion in states: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/arkan...b617a7e41381ce

As the article notes, that was passed with the specific intention of it eventually reaching the Supreme Court, with the expectation that the current Court will then overturn Roe v. Wade.
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Old 10th March 2021, 02:59 PM   #283
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Originally Posted by Armitage72 View Post
As the article notes, that was passed with the specific intention of it eventually reaching the Supreme Court, with the expectation that the current Court will then overturn Roe v. Wade.
Yep, which is completely in line with my OP.

Now SCOTUS has a 6-3 religious conservative majority, I wouldn't be taking bets, and if they do allow a law like this, you can bet every red state will do the same thing.
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Old 10th March 2021, 03:36 PM   #284
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
They're not letting a little thing like Trump losing the White House stop them from trying to ban abortion in states:
Understandable, since in the US system of government the person in the White House is completely irrelevant to state legislation and its adjudication in the federal court system. They'd be complete idiots and ignoramuses if they thought Trump leaving office was in any way an obstacle to their plan.
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Old 10th March 2021, 05:02 PM   #285
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Well I guess we'll finally find out one way or the other.

My guess is that Roberts would vote to uphold Roe because of stare decisis, but there might be 5 votes to overturn Roe.

Just to remind everyone, last summer there was a case that narrowly threw out a Louisiana anti-abortion law on a 5-4 vote, with Roberts siding with the Liberals. But that was with Ginsburg on the court. She has since been replaced by Amy Coney Barrett.

That case was not the same as an outright abortion ban, so I don't know whether all of the justices who voted to uphold that law are certain to uphold this one, but it seems likely. You never know with these things though until it happens. But a 5-4 decision to overturn Roe certainly appears to be a real possibility.
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Old 10th March 2021, 05:49 PM   #286
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Any law based on Religious Belief should be tossed out.
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Old 10th March 2021, 06:00 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Understandable, since in the US system of government the person in the White House is completely irrelevant to state legislation and its adjudication in the federal court system.
Obviously, but when you want to challenge the status quo, there's nothing like having a President and VP who are both wildly publicly anti-abortion. The more people want change, the harder states push, and sooner or later, one of them will worm its way to SCOTUS.
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Old 10th March 2021, 10:52 PM   #288
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If SCOTUS overturns Roe, the Republicans will lose a lot of single issue voters.
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Old 26th March 2021, 08:29 PM   #289
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The wave just keeps getting bigger and bigger: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/2021-...b65d1c28154b24
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Old 26th March 2021, 08:40 PM   #290
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Originally Posted by marting View Post
If SCOTUS overturns Roe, the Republicans will lose a lot of single issue voters.
Why?

The Heller decision didn't affect the 2nd Amendment single voting issue.
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Old 13th April 2021, 11:21 AM   #291
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Quote:
The law would charge doctors with a felony crime and take away their medical license if they know that the patient’s reason for the abortion was even partly related to a Down syndrome diagnosis. This Ohio law, and others like it, have been condemned by disability rights and justice advocates and organizations as an unjustified attack on bodily autonomy, which does nothing to address ableism and systemic discrimination against people with disabilities.
https://www.acluohio.org/archives/press-releases/federal-court-overturns-lower-court-ruling-allows-ohio-lawmakers-to-punish-doctors-for-providing-abortion-care-based-on-patients-reason
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Old 13th April 2021, 11:24 AM   #292
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
But think about how much easier it is to punish doctors than actually provide support for parents of children with downs.
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Old 13th April 2021, 01:06 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
Wow.

Your religious right is seriously sick.
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Old 17th May 2021, 08:15 AM   #294
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Supreme Court to weigh rollback of abortion rights

Quote:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court agreed Monday to consider a major rollback of abortion rights, saying it will decide whether states can ban abortions before a fetus can survive outside the womb.

The court’s order sets up a showdown over abortion, probably in the fall, with a more conservative court seemingly ready to dramatically alter nearly 50 years of rulings on abortion rights.
. . .

The case involves a Mississippi law that would prohibit abortions after the 15th week of pregnancy.
So this particular law would not be a complete reversal of Roe, as it would allow abortions until the 15th week.

In the United States, according to data reported by the Centers for Disease Control, 92% of abortions are performed by the 13th week.

Quote:
The majority of abortions in 2018 took place early in gestation: 92.2% of abortions were performed at ≤13 weeks’ gestation; a smaller number of abortions (6.9%) were performed at 14–20 weeks’ gestation, and even fewer (1.0%) were performed at ≥21 weeks’ gestation.
So, presumably, if the Supreme Court were to allow this particular law to stand, it would not affect the majority of abortions.

The other news seems to be that they did not take up the Arkansas abortion ban, or other more restrictive laws like fetal heartbeat laws. Does that mean that they plan to take an incrementalist approach? Rather than overturning Roe in one fell swoop, chip away at it?
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Old 17th May 2021, 10:03 AM   #295
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Me in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2020: Just vote for the mainstream candidates most likely to actually defeat the Republicans or we're gonna lose the Supreme Court.

Reponses; Oh you're an evil centrist Democrats are part of the same system I'm voting for an outside the box neo-socialist-greenparty-progressive with sprinkles because they aren't a compromise!
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Old 17th May 2021, 10:17 AM   #296
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Quote:
If SCOTUS overturns Roe, the Republicans will lose a lot of single issue voters.
Why?

The Heller decision didn't affect the 2nd Amendment single voting issue.
True... I'm sure the evangelicals will want to keep supporting anti-Abortion republicans because "We must continue protecting the unborn children. Otherwise women will actually start to think of themselves as real people".

There is another risk to Republicans though...

A 2018 poll shows the majority of Republicans actually support Roe v. Wade. (See: Wikipedia

Now, I suspect many of these people continue to support the Republicans for other reasons, and they probably figure that overturning Roe v. Wade is just some sort of theoretical idea that would never happen in real life (i.e. not something to be concerned about). But if the Supreme court DOES severely curtail abortion rights, maybe some of these pro-choice republicans might start to think that perhaps the GOP isn't the best fit for them.
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Old 17th May 2021, 10:28 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Me in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2020: Just vote for the mainstream candidates most likely to actually defeat the Republicans or we're gonna lose the Supreme Court.

Reponses; Oh you're an evil centrist Democrats are part of the same system I'm voting for an outside the box neo-socialist-greenparty-progressive with sprinkles because they aren't a compromise!
Strange choice to peg responsibility for our current court this way.

Probably the single greatest reason for our current court being comprised this way is the refusal by RGB to retire when Obama and the Dems had the ability to select and confirm her replacement. It doesn't matter if you win elections if liberal justices refuse to think strategically.

Even now it's an open question whether Breyer is going to retire in time to be replaced before an election risks losing Senate control. Can't blame the Greens for that one.

Republicans are playing hardball when it comes to the SCOTUS and liberal justices are still waffling on whether or not they should die on the bench because their ego demands it.
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Old 17th May 2021, 10:30 AM   #298
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I think Republicans would trade all power over the Judiciary, States and Congress in return for control of the mainstream media and what goes for "Hollywood" nowadays: they think they can win the Culture War by gaining power, not realizing that that's never going to work.
Abortion is the clearest showcase of Conservatives thinking they can force the Zeitgeist to conform to their ideals by decree.
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Old 17th May 2021, 12:48 PM   #299
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Quote:
Me in 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2020: Just vote for the mainstream candidates most likely to actually defeat the Republicans or we're gonna lose the Supreme Court.

Reponses; Oh you're an evil centrist Democrats are part of the same system I'm voting for an outside the box neo-socialist-greenparty-progressive with sprinkles because they aren't a compromise!
Strange choice to peg responsibility for our current court this way.
It is true that the majority of blame for the current political landscape (and the supreme court) falls on the Republicans.

But that doesn't mean that we can't point out the foolishness of "progressives" taking a course of action that may have been a symbolic victory, but leads to real harm in the real world.
Quote:
Probably the single greatest reason for our current court being comprised this way is the refusal by RGB to retire when Obama and the Dems had the ability to select and confirm her replacement.
Perhaps. However, you can't rule out the scenario is that Moscow Mitch would have just blocked the confirmation (unless she retired in the first couple of years of Obama's term, but that would have drastically shortened her career). End result is that you'd still end up with a republican majority, you just would have had several years with an 8 member supreme court.
Quote:
Even now it's an open question whether Breyer is going to retire in time to be replaced before an election risks losing Senate control. Can't blame the Greens for that one.

Republicans are playing hardball when it comes to the SCOTUS and liberal justices are still waffling on whether or not they should die on the bench because their ego demands it.
Yes, the Democrats have to do a better job at playing 'hardball' (both regarding the supreme court, and with politics in general).

However, keep in mind that the longest serving justice right now is... Right-wing judge Clarence Thomas. He is younger than Breyer, but he's still in his 70s, and if the Democrats manage to hold the White House in 2024, its possible that the Democrats will be able to nominate his successor.
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Old 17th May 2021, 01:19 PM   #300
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
It is true that the majority of blame for the current political landscape (and the supreme court) falls on the Republicans.

But that doesn't mean that we can't point out the foolishness of "progressives" taking a course of action that may have been a symbolic victory, but leads to real harm in the real world.

Perhaps. However, you can't rule out the scenario is that Moscow Mitch would have just blocked the confirmation (unless she retired in the first couple of years of Obama's term, but that would have drastically shortened her career). End result is that you'd still end up with a republican majority, you just would have had several years with an 8 member supreme court.

Yes, the Democrats have to do a better job at playing 'hardball' (both regarding the supreme court, and with politics in general).

However, keep in mind that the longest serving justice right now is... Right-wing judge Clarence Thomas. He is younger than Breyer, but he's still in his 70s, and if the Democrats manage to hold the White House in 2024, its possible that the Democrats will be able to nominate his successor.
This is exactly what people were calling for at the time, which was dismissed by RBG and other fools as a presumptuous request. The exact doom-scenario we are in now was gamed out at the time, and RBG decided to roll the dice and we all lost. Barring a miracle, we'll be living with the consequences of that foolishness for a generation. Longer if Breyer repeats the error.

A bit ironic, a strong feminist icon's refusal to strategically play the game will be the indirect cause of women's rights being largely defanged in this country. It's going to be a speedrun to see how fast the conservative ghouls can reverse a lifetime legacy.
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Last edited by SuburbanTurkey; 17th May 2021 at 01:28 PM. Reason: Meant RBG, not gamer lights. Yikes.
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Old 17th May 2021, 03:10 PM   #301
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
Calling the naysayers who said it was all a red herring...
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Old 19th May 2021, 12:29 PM   #302
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Here's yet another possible test case to be:
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/05/18/texas-heartbeat-bill-abortions-law/
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Old 2nd June 2021, 12:29 PM   #303
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Stupid poll. It has too much in the last option. They can take up some case and limit abortion. They can essentially overturn it as it's not a law, so replace it with some similar thing. They will not completely overturn it but cut down the weeks from 20 to some other number. Currently it's viable (24-28 weeks). They will also uphold all strict state laws that require an abortion clinic to be a surgical hospital. A state having no clinics will be fine.
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Old 24th June 2021, 08:20 AM   #304
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https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/parenting/aisha-sultan/sultan-republicans-lawmakers-want-your-iud-and-its-creepy-as-hell/article_3f6b52b7-1a41-52fb-b3a5-326b13578dd4.html

Quote:
[...]
We know this debate isn’t really about abortion. Republicans, who have a supermajority in the statehouse, have already passed the most restrictive abortion ban in the country back in 2019. With upcoming elections next year, however, the anti-abortion zealots had to find a way to one-up each other on their anti-choice credentials.

They’ve opted to disingenuously expand the definition of “abortion” to include using IUDs, like the Mirena and ParaGard, which is not an abortion by any stretch of medical explanation.
[...]
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Old 24th June 2021, 11:37 AM   #305
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I really detest politicians.
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Old 24th June 2021, 12:26 PM   #306
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Originally Posted by Emily's Cat View Post
I really detest politicians.
Gotta take the good with the bad. Sure, Republican freaks are going to make it extremely difficult to be a woman in this country, but they're also going to make things really ****** for trans people.

The price we pay for reactionary politics.
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Old 24th June 2021, 12:55 PM   #307
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Gotta take the good with the bad. Sure, Republican freaks are going to make it extremely difficult to be a woman in this country, but they're also going to make things really ****** for trans people.

The price we pay for reactionary politics.
Sure, sure, it's all "those evil people over there".

At the moment, both republicans and democrats are pretty much screwing over females.
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Old 24th June 2021, 05:09 PM   #308
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Gotta take the good with the bad. Sure, Republican freaks are going to make it extremely difficult to be a woman in this country, but they're also going to make things really ****** for trans people.
That is truly pathetic.
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Old 9th July 2021, 09:16 AM   #309
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From https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/09/us/abortion-law-regulations-texas.html:
Quote:
Ordinarily, enforcement would be up to government officials, and if clinics wanted to challenge the law’s constitutionality, they would sue those officials in making their case. But the law in Texas prohibits officials from enforcing it. Instead, it takes the opposite approach, effectively deputizing ordinary citizens — including from outside Texas — to sue clinics and others who violate the law. It awards them at least $10,000 per illegal abortion if they are successful.
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Old 10th July 2021, 06:14 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by cosmicaug View Post
blessed be the fruit
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Old 11th July 2021, 07:12 PM   #311
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It's not just the right-wingers that want to change abortion laws. In the UK there is an attack on their laws emanating from advocates for the 'differently abled'.


Quote:
Heidi Carter is a 24-year-old woman with Down’s syndrome. She is currently taking the UK health secretary Sajid Javid to court in an effort to change the 1967 Abortion Act.

Carter and her team want to take away the option women currently have to abort a pregnancy after 24 weeks in cases of non-fatal disabilities. Her supporters are framing this as a battle for the rights of disabled people. This is misleading. It should be understood as an attempt to limit the choice and freedoms of 34 million women.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/0...omens-freedom/
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Old 11th July 2021, 07:30 PM   #312
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Originally Posted by Graham2001 View Post
It's not just the right-wingers that want to change abortion laws. In the UK there is an attack on their laws emanating from advocates for the 'differently abled'.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2021/0...omens-freedom/
While I am generally for choice I do have to ask if there needs to be a line. At first, it was because there was a substantial risk to the health of the Mother or that the child was unlikely to survive. Now we're allowing abortion because the child might be disabled. Do we start allowing abortions because the child might need glasses by age 10, or won't be good at sports, or might have the wrong coloured eyes, or is the wrong gender? Is there a line that we draw when considering that the unborn child might have rights, or do we just throw open the doors and say go for it?
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Old 11th July 2021, 07:40 PM   #313
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
While I am generally for choice I do have to ask if there needs to be a line. At first, it was because there was a substantial risk to the health of the Mother or that the child was unlikely to survive. Now we're allowing abortion because the child might be disabled. Do we start allowing abortions because the child might need glasses by age 10, or won't be good at sports, or might have the wrong coloured eyes, or is the wrong gender? Is there a line that we draw when considering that the unborn child might have rights, or do we just throw open the doors and say go for it?
I am not familiar with UK abortion laws. It sounds like they are a lot stricter than US laws?
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Old 11th July 2021, 07:42 PM   #314
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Originally Posted by Warp12 View Post
I am not familiar with UK abortion laws. It sounds like they are a lot stricter than US laws?
Considering the laws in many states in the US, I doubt it.
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Old 11th July 2021, 07:58 PM   #315
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Originally Posted by Graham2001 View Post
It's not just the right-wingers that want to change abortion laws. In the UK there is an attack on their laws emanating from advocates for the 'differently abled'.
Same thing is happening here. Words fail me.

Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
While I am generally for choice I do have to ask if there needs to be a line.
There is a line already - it's the mother's choice.

She carries it for nine months, wrecking her body in the process, and putting her at risk of death and serious health outcomes - women still die giving birth in western countries - and then she will be breastfeeding for up to a couple of years, acting as an in-house cow for the little feeder, and is possibly going to have it as a millstone around her neck for the rest of her life.

If she doesn't want to burden herself with a disabled child as well as all the other negatives, more power to her, and Down Syndrome is not a small thing. Having that extra chromosome, is a real mental and physical deformity, and attempts to normalise it is PC taken to absurd levels.
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Old 11th July 2021, 08:08 PM   #316
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
There is a line already - it's the mother's choice.
That is literally not having a line. Which if that's your argument then fine, but at least be honest about it.
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Old 11th July 2021, 08:24 PM   #317
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
That is literally not having a line.
It clearly is. That's what choice means - it's the mother's choice.

You can't have a clearer line.
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Old 11th July 2021, 08:28 PM   #318
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It clearly is. That's what choice means - it's the mother's choice.

You can't have a clearer line.
Is there any situation where it shouldn't be the mother's choice, relating to abortion?
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Old 11th July 2021, 08:33 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
It clearly is. That's what choice means - it's the mother's choice.

You can't have a clearer line.
That's like saying that the try line is wherever the Half-Back decides it is.
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Old 11th July 2021, 09:13 PM   #320
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
That's like saying that the try line is wherever the Half-Back decides it is.
What sport is that referencing?
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