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Old 19th August 2020, 04:09 AM   #161
Cosmic Yak
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Thanks for the graphs skyeagle. Two things occur to me after looking at them.

1. The acceleration and deceleration are enormous and it's hard to imagine lifeforms (if there are any on board) surviving the forces involved.
No, not really. If your entire premise is based on what you imagine is causing these reports, then adding a little more imagination into the mix is a piece of cake.

Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
2. The erratic movement is hard to conjure up reasons for.
The whole thing is hard to conjure up reasons for- MinnesotaBrant's aliens flew across the galaxy to look at a billboard, then went home again, for example. It's the UFO equivalent of the "moves in mysterious ways" excuse.
Very handy for glossing over those awkward questions, and saves you from having to come up with any kind of rational explanation.
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Old 19th August 2020, 03:15 PM   #162
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
No, not really. If your entire premise is based on what you imagine is causing these reports, then adding a little more imagination into the mix is a piece of cake.



The whole thing is hard to conjure up reasons for- MinnesotaBrant's aliens flew across the galaxy to look at a billboard, then went home again, for example. It's the UFO equivalent of the "moves in mysterious ways" excuse.
Very handy for glossing over those awkward questions, and saves you from having to come up with any kind of rational explanation.

Yes indeed.

There are many that see the application of reason as unreasonable. These folk quite comfortably accept the drawing of crop circles and such, as perfectly logical activities, for aliens who have travelled many light years, to come to our shores.
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Old 20th August 2020, 05:40 PM   #163
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Has anybody here ever had bamboozled candy? I always assumed that it was made for mutants to �� bean boozled
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Old 21st August 2020, 09:37 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
In this case it's like your cat seeing a bird and thinking "that bird is going faster and turning with greater agility than any bird could possibly manage" but only because your cat had misunderstood what it was seeing, how fast the bird itself was really moving and in fact it was an ordinary bird doing ordinary bird stuff.

It's a bit disappointing to discover your cat is so easy to bamboozle, especially when it's a famous physicist, but cats will always find ways to surprise us.
A cat astrophysicist might be an interesting animal but it’s still just a cat. Might get a very special cage. Might know more about flying machines than most cats but won’t buy it much
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Old 23rd August 2020, 08:18 AM   #165
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We do have one cat which likes TV wildlife shows and will watch scenes with birds or small mammals intently, once even to the point of jumping up and searching for them behind the TV when they went offscreen. The other cat ignores the TV and has never given any hint of recognising a representation on a screen as being a real thing.

We have concluded that one of them is smart and one is stupid. But we cannot be quite certain which is which.

Neither has so far obtained a degree in any science.
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Old 23rd August 2020, 10:01 AM   #166
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I am schizophrenic and was told that aliens do not consider us to be intelligent life. So our understanding is a lot like you cat trying to study to be an astrophysicist. I am probably like the cat watching the tv except I am less reactive to the images on it.
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Old 19th September 2020, 11:51 PM   #167
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Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
The good ol' "highly trained observers" line. Gets 'em every time.
The good ol' "prone to mistakes" line. Get's 'em every time.

Military pilots, in particular, are highly trained observers. They are trained in aircraft silhouette identification and have many hours under their belt. They are far and away the among most credible witnesses you can get. Certanly better than amateur astronomers. The problem with your 'prone to mistakes' party line is that it makes it seem like planes are falling out of the sky willy nilly.

For some reason I can't copy and paste so I'll just post the name of the book you should read:

"UfOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record"
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Old 20th September 2020, 03:59 AM   #168
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
The good ol' "prone to mistakes" line. Get's 'em every time.

Military pilots, in particular, are highly trained observers. They are trained in aircraft silhouette identification and have many hours under their belt. They are far and away the among most credible witnesses you can get. Certanly better than amateur astronomers. The problem with your 'prone to mistakes' party line is that it makes it seem like planes are falling out of the sky willy nilly.

For some reason I can't copy and paste so I'll just post the name of the book you should read:

"UfOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record"
Oh, the old 'highly trained observers' canard. Been there, done that, in pretty much every thread we've ever had here about this.
That book, by the way, references UFO reports that we have also done to death here.
What you need to do is provide some positive evidence that these sightings are actually alien spaceships. That would go a long way to settling this debate.
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Old 20th September 2020, 04:03 AM   #169
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How do you train military personnel to spot alien spacecraft? Is there a manual, based on all the previous sightings? What are the distinguishing characteristics of a spaceship, that rule out the possibility of misidentification?
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Old 20th September 2020, 08:38 AM   #170
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
The good ol' "prone to mistakes" line. Get's 'em every time.

Military pilots, in particular, are highly trained observers. They are trained in aircraft silhouette identification and have many hours under their belt. They are far and away the among most credible witnesses you can get. Certanly better than amateur astronomers. The problem with your 'prone to mistakes' party line is that it makes it seem like planes are falling out of the sky willy nilly.

For some reason I can't copy and paste so I'll just post the name of the book you should read:

"UfOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record"
Does the term ďblue on blueĒ mean anything to you?
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Old 20th September 2020, 08:43 AM   #171
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
The good ol' "prone to mistakes" line. Get's 'em every time.

Military pilots, in particular, are highly trained observers. They are trained in aircraft silhouette identification and have many hours under their belt. They are far and away the among most credible witnesses you can get. Certanly better than amateur astronomers. The problem with your 'prone to mistakes' party line is that it makes it seem like planes are falling out of the sky willy nilly.

For some reason I can't copy and paste so I'll just post the name of the book you should read:

"UfOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record"
A (US) military pilot may be good at identifying a Mig-29 or Su-35 under good conditions. It does not follow from this that they are good at ruling out Mig-29s and Su-35s under all conditions. It does not follow from this that they are good at identifying all aerial phenomena, whether actual or illusory, under all conditions. It also does not follow that they are good at ruling out all mundane explanations under all conditions.
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Old 20th September 2020, 08:51 AM   #172
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
The good ol' "prone to mistakes" line. Get's 'em every time.

Military pilots, in particular, are highly trained observers. They are trained in aircraft silhouette identification and have many hours under their belt. They are far and away the among most credible witnesses you can get. Certanly better than amateur astronomers. The problem with your 'prone to mistakes' party line is that it makes it seem like planes are falling out of the sky willy nilly.

For some reason I can't copy and paste so I'll just post the name of the book you should read:

"UfOs: Generals, Pilots and Government Officials Go on the Record"

Apropos of nothing yesterday was the anniversary of the '79 Tehran UFO chase.
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Old 20th September 2020, 12:59 PM   #173
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
Oh, the old 'highly trained observers' canard. Been there, done that, in pretty much every thread we've ever had here about this.
That book, by the way, references UFO reports that we have also done to death here.
What you need to do is provide some positive evidence that these sightings are actually alien spaceships. That would go a long way to settling this debate.
Who said anything about alien spaceships? I sure didn't. As far as having done those incidents to death means nothing. I'll bet everyone of those incidents you guys came up with some sort of mundane explanation even though you weren't there and didn't witness anything. That is the nature of a debunker as opposed to a true skeptic.
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Old 20th September 2020, 01:02 PM   #174
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
How do you train military personnel to spot alien spacecraft? Is there a manual, based on all the previous sightings? What are the distinguishing characteristics of a spaceship, that rule out the possibility of misidentification?
Simple, pilots are trained in silhouette identification of both the friendlies and the bogies. Anything that doesn't fit within those paramaters is by definition a UFO. Whether it's top secret govt. craft or the real deal, an actual alien craft, or something else other than known aircraft.
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Old 20th September 2020, 01:04 PM   #175
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Does the term “blue on blue” mean anything to you?
Yeah, it's a hit record by teenage hearthrob Bobby Vinton. Seriously, though, what does it mean.

p.s. I just looked it up and it means to get shot down by your own guy. I that what you were referring to? If so, how does that fit into the conversation?
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Old 20th September 2020, 01:28 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
Yeah, it's a hit record by teenage hearthrob Bobby Vinton. Seriously, though, what does it mean.

p.s. I just looked it up and it means to get shot down by your own guy. I that what you were referring to? If so, how does that fit into the conversation?
Gee. Even I can figure that out. Someone saw a "friendly" and thought is was not and shot it down. You know; like emptying your guns at Venus.
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Old 20th September 2020, 01:33 PM   #177
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I can speak from experience on the issue of military pilots being trained observers. I have 3312 hours primary time as a C-130 Flight Engineer, sitting in the center seat two feet behind a pair of military pilots. Prior to that, 16 years as a flight simulator technician and operator, observing and assisting in the training of those trained observer military pilots.

They are indeed trained as observers. They are not, however, trained as patient, objective, scientific observers. Pilots often must react quickly to perceived threats, decide on the appropriate response, and apply it promptly. This precludes much of the objective cross checking, rechecking, and retesting of observations and assumptions necessary to proper scientific observation. Basic pilot psychology calls for a good deal of self confidence. This lets them respond quickly and positively, but can also lead them to have too much confidence that their initial impression was true, and ignore indications to the contrary. By contrast, the flight engineer should always assume that they have missed something important, which leads them to recheck everything.

In both my jobs I've had a chance to see numerous examples of misidentification, misperception, and failure to note relevant information. A significant part of my job as flight engineer was to recheck what the pilot saw, and look for what they didn't see. One of our normal scanning procedures was to try to look at what the pilots weren't looking at, and thereby noting things they hadn't seen.

Edited to add: In fairness to the Commissioned Officers I worked with, Enlisted Aviators are also liable to make errors of these, and other, sorts.

Last edited by Pope130; 20th September 2020 at 03:27 PM. Reason: Seeming bias.
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Old 20th September 2020, 01:45 PM   #178
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
Simple, pilots are trained in silhouette identification of both the friendlies and the bogies.
Bollocks. This is 2020, air-to-air combat happens at speeds and ranges where visual identification is impossible.
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Old 20th September 2020, 01:52 PM   #179
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And in the vein of anomalous phenomena, today is the anniversary of the Petrozavodsk phenomenon, observed at multiple locations in several countries around Europe.
For those not familiar with it, the phenomenon was a series of celestial events (of disputed nature) seen over a vast sawth of Europe and Eurasia; from Copenhagen and Helsinki in the west to Vladivostok in the east, between 1AM and 01:30AM. It is named after the city of Petrozavodsk where a glowing object was widely reported that showered the city with numerous rays. An unidentified object was also observed near Turku in Finland

It is sometimes linked to the Soviet Kosmos-955 satellite. The event contributed to the Soviet creation of Setka AN, a research program for anomalous atmospheric phenomena.
Despite vast speculation the phenomenon has never been plausibly explained.

Any takers?
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Old 20th September 2020, 03:40 PM   #180
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Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto View Post
Gee. Even I can figure that out. Someone saw a "friendly" and thought is was not and shot it down. You know; like emptying your guns at Venus.
You make sound like a blanket inditment of all pilots at all times. Pilots are human, too, and as such can make mistakes. Commercial and military pilots in particular make very few mistakes. It's like I said earlier that you make it sound like planes are falling out of the skies willy nilly. Personally, I'm going to lean very heavily towards commercial and military pilots as being among the most credible of witnesses. Especially when backed up by ground radar with technicians and ranking brass as witnesses. I'm going that way way before I'd go with some guys sitting in front of a computer screen miles and years removed from the incidents.
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Old 20th September 2020, 03:45 PM   #181
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_jellyfish
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Old 20th September 2020, 04:03 PM   #182
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Originally Posted by Pope130 View Post
I can speak from experience on the issue of military pilots being trained observers. I have 3312 hours primary time as a C-130 Flight Engineer, sitting in the center seat two feet behind a pair of military pilots. Prior to that, 16 years as a flight simulator technician and operator, observing and assisting in the training of those trained observer military pilots.

They are indeed trained as observers. They are not, however, trained as patient, objective, scientific observers. Pilots often must react quickly to perceived threats, decide on the appropriate response, and apply it promptly. This precludes much of the objective cross checking, rechecking, and retesting of observations and assumptions necessary to proper scientific observation. Basic pilot psychology calls for a good deal of self confidence. This lets them respond quickly and positively, but can also lead them to have too much confidence that their initial impression was true, and ignore indications to the contrary. By contrast, the flight engineer should always assume that they have missed something important, which leads them to recheck everything.

In both my jobs I've had a chance to see numerous examples of misidentification, misperception, and failure to note relevant information. A significant part of my job as flight engineer was to recheck what the pilot saw, and look for what they didn't see. One of our normal scanning procedures was to try to look at what the pilots weren't looking at, and thereby noting things they hadn't seen.

Edited to add: In fairness to the Commissioned Officers I worked with, Enlisted Aviators are also liable to make errors of these, and other, sorts.
Well said. Sure pilots can make mistakes. I'm not saying they don't. But for sure they get it right an overwhelming amount of the time or planes would be dropping. You guys try to make it seem like all UFOs sightings are pilot error and/or misidentification, even the ones with ground verification via radar, etc.

By discounting all pilot sightings is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. If you take the Gimbal(?) and Nimitz sightings where all the experts are stumped after checking and rechecking and they say they are stumped...guess what? It means that you and I are stumped also. You can offer something up like, top secret aircraft, but at the end of the day you have to say, "I don't know for sure." After all, they were there with multiple witnesses, radar back up, etc. and you are sitting in front of a monitor totally removed from the situation and don't have the expertise and equipment anyway.
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Old 20th September 2020, 05:09 PM   #183
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
Well said. Sure pilots can make mistakes. I'm not saying they don't. But for sure they get it right an overwhelming amount of the time or planes would be dropping.
Planes are dropping all the time. Air Crash Investigations (TV Show) shows large numbers of experienced pilots making visual assessment errors.

Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
If you take the Gimbal(?) and Nimitz sightings where all the experts are stumped after checking and rechecking and they say they are stumped
I thought this was debunked in Checkmite's link to the expert debunking videos.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...1&postcount=59
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Old 20th September 2020, 05:20 PM   #184
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
... If you take the Gimbal(?) and Nimitz sightings where all the experts are stumped after checking and rechecking ...
Wait. When did we establish that "all the experts are stumped"?
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Old 20th September 2020, 05:38 PM   #185
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
You make sound like a blanket inditment of all pilots at all times. Pilots are human, too, and as such can make mistakes. Commercial and military pilots in particular make very few mistakes. It's like I said earlier that you make it sound like planes are falling out of the skies willy nilly. Personally, I'm going to lean very heavily towards commercial and military pilots as being among the most credible of witnesses. Especially when backed up by ground radar with technicians and ranking brass as witnesses. I'm going that way way before I'd go with some guys sitting in front of a computer screen miles and years removed from the incidents.
How about people who are trained to look at the sky? You know -- astronomers and meteorologists?
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Old 20th September 2020, 05:39 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Wait. When did we establish that "all the experts are stumped"?
The specific experts being interviewed for the UFO TV shows and websites, of course they're stumped.

The ones that aren't stumped...well, they don't get interviewed.
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Old 21st September 2020, 04:33 AM   #187
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
Who said anything about alien spaceships? I sure didn't. As far as having done those incidents to death means nothing. I'll bet everyone of those incidents you guys came up with some sort of mundane explanation even though you weren't there and didn't witness anything. That is the nature of a debunker as opposed to a true skeptic.
Well, it's good to see you are not accepting any of these incidents as evidence of alien ships.
Your second point is a little more obscure, though.
You appear to be saying that you can only explain something satisfactorily if you were there in person. Is that the case?


Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
Well said. Sure pilots can make mistakes. I'm not saying they don't. But for sure they get it right an overwhelming amount of the time or planes would be dropping. You guys try to make it seem like all UFOs sightings are pilot error and/or misidentification, even the ones with ground verification via radar, etc.
Well, yes- and you agree with that, unless you are now saying they really are alien ships.

Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
By discounting all pilot sightings is throwing the baby out with the bathwater. If you take the Gimbal(?) and Nimitz sightings where all the experts are stumped after checking and rechecking and they say they are stumped...guess what? It means that you and I are stumped also. You can offer something up like, top secret aircraft, but at the end of the day you have to say, "I don't know for sure." After all, they were there with multiple witnesses, radar back up, etc. and you are sitting in front of a monitor totally removed from the situation and don't have the expertise and equipment anyway.
This is something of a sweeping generalisation.
There have been instances when we do know what it was (not aliens, in case you're wondering).
There are others where we don't know. I don't think anyone here is saying "this definitely wasn't aliens"- that's certainly not my position. A sceptical approach looks for positive evidence. Thus far, I am unaware of any positive evidence suggesting the presence of aliens on earth. Are you?
Frankly, it appears you are deliberately misrepresenting the positions of members here, in order to start an argument.
What exactly is your point?
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Old 21st September 2020, 04:52 AM   #188
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The chances that any of these events are related to alien spacecraft or even some super-secret foreign aircraft are so low that they wouldn't justify an investigation, but the Navy has to investigate them because anything that might mislead or distract a pilot is a concern.
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Old 21st September 2020, 05:21 AM   #189
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
Wait. When did we establish that "all the experts are stumped"?
The Navy 'declassified' which means they have studied the incidents thoroughly and they didn't come up with an explanation like bugs, flare, etc. Sorry, but I'm going to go with the military on this one. It is hubris of someone like Micdk West claiming he knows more than the navy, especially since he doesn't have all the information that the Navy has. You guys should offer your services to the military as special consultant debunkers to keep the combined might of the armed services on the straight and narrow. Your debunkers skills are needed by the nation.
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Old 21st September 2020, 05:31 PM   #190
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
It is hubris of someone like Micdk West claiming he knows more than the navy,
As he was able to recreate the visual anomaly it isn't just hubris. It was science as he put forward a hypothesis.
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Old 21st September 2020, 05:35 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
Simple, pilots are trained in silhouette identification of both the friendlies and the bogies. Anything that doesn't fit within those paramaters is by definition a UFO. Whether it's top secret govt. craft or the real deal, an actual alien craft, or something else other than known aircraft.
Or even just a known aircraft under less than idea observation conditions. Not every plane a military pilot sees presents itself in clean profile or plan view, at a reasonable distance, in good lighting.
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Old 21st September 2020, 07:47 PM   #192
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Originally Posted by jadebox View Post
The chances that any of these events are related to alien spacecraft or even some super-secret foreign aircraft are so low that they wouldn't justify an investigation, but the Navy has to investigate them because anything that might mislead or distract a pilot is a concern.
Also because unknown aircraft penetrating controlled airspace is a massive security risk.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 04:28 AM   #193
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
The Navy 'declassified' which means they have studied the incidents thoroughly and they didn't come up with an explanation ...
I guess I misunderstood what the word declassified meant all these years. Thanks.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 07:28 AM   #194
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
I guess I misunderstood what the word declassified meant all these years. Thanks.
Sarcasm becomes you. Here it was that I thought that they just did not care anymore.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 10:44 AM   #195
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Originally Posted by Matthew Ellard View Post
Planes are dropping all the time. Air Crash Investigations (TV Show) shows large numbers of experienced pilots making visual assessment errors.

Once again pilots in general are right an overwhelming amount of the time. Especially highly trained and skilled military pilots.


I thought this was debunked in Checkmite's link to the expert debunking videos.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...1&postcount=59
Originally Posted by jakesteele
Well said. Sure pilots can make mistakes. I'm not saying they don't. But for sure they get it right an overwhelming amount of the time or planes would be dropping.
Planes are dropping all the time. Air Crash Investigations (TV Show) shows large numbers of experienced pilots making visual assessment errors.
***Once again pilots in general are right an overwhelming amount of the time. Especially highly trained and skilled military pilots
Originally Posted by jakesteele
If you take the Gimbal(?) and Nimitz sightings where all the experts are stumped after checking and rechecking and they say they are stumped
I thought this was debunked in Checkmite's link to the expert debunking videos.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...1&postcount=59

Sorry, but Iím going to go with the combined resources of the military. Theyíve got the skilled experts, the radar and other equipment and the data the witnesses, etc.

Letís do an Ocaamís Razor game. Iíll frame like this: A childís teeter totter. On one side of the teeter youíve got the combined resources, experience, data, witnesses, etc. of the Navy. On the other side of the teeter weíve got Mick West and other debunkers sitting behind computer monitors with extremely limited resources, no access to the data, combined brain power and more. Now which do you think, according to Ocaamís Razor, the weight of the argument lies on. Iíll give you a hint; not Mick West!! The preponderance of the evidence lies with the military. The sightings remain inconclusive or unknown.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 10:48 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by Gord_in_Toronto View Post
How about people who are trained to look at the sky? You know -- astronomers and meteorologists?
Wait just a minute. Now all of a sudden astronomers and meteororologists
are expert witnesses? If they can be then so can Military pilots. Sorry, but you can't have it both ways. Besides, astronomers are looking hundreds of thousands and millions of light years away. There focal point of out there, not in the earth's atmosphere. If something flew through their field of vision they wouldn't know if it was a bird, a plane or Superman.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 10:55 AM   #197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
Well, it's good to see you are not accepting any of these incidents as evidence of alien ships.
Your second point is a little more obscure, though.
You appear to be saying that you can only explain something satisfactorily if you were there in person. Is that the case?
Not just in person, but the investigations that would follow that.




Quote:
Well, yes- and you agree with that, unless you are now saying they really are alien ships.
Nope, not saying they were aliens. My position is that the sightings remain inconclusive and unknown. Personally, I'd put money on secret govt. craft not known to the public.



This is something of a sweeping generalisation.
There have been instances when we do know what it was (not aliens, in case you're wondering).
There are others where we don't know. I don't think anyone here is saying "this definitely wasn't aliens"- that's certainly not my position. A sceptical approach looks for positive evidence. Thus far, I am unaware of any positive evidence suggesting the presence of aliens on earth. Are you?
Frankly, it appears you are deliberately misrepresenting the positions of members here, in order to start an argument.
What exactly is your point?
My point is that the preponderance of the combined resources of the Navy outweighs some guy sitting in front of a computer with vastly limited resources, no particular expertise compared to the Navy.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 11:08 AM   #198
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Originally Posted by Matthew Ellard View Post
As he was able to recreate the visual anomaly it isn't just hubris. It was science as he put forward a hypothesis.

noun: hypothesis; plural noun: hypotheses

a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation.

Good for Mick, he's got an opinion based on limited evidence as a starting point.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 11:12 AM   #199
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
Wait just a minute. Now all of a sudden astronomers and meteororologists
are expert witnesses?
If they can be then so can Military pilots. Sorry, but you can't have it both ways. Besides, astronomers are looking hundreds of thousands and millions of light years away. There focal point of out there, not in the earth's atmosphere. If something flew through their field of vision they wouldn't know if it was a bird, a plane or Superman.
Is that your claim? It is certainly not connected to the post you quoted.
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Old 22nd September 2020, 11:27 AM   #200
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Originally Posted by jakesteele View Post
noun: hypothesis; plural noun: hypotheses

a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation.

Good for Mick, he's got an opinion based on limited evidence as a starting point.
But he didn't just stop with the opinion; he conducted experiments, which proved the hypothesis and removed it from the realm of opinion.
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