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Tags 2020 elections , Democratic primaries , iowa caucus , political predictions , political speculation , presidential candidates

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Old 10th April 2020, 07:06 PM   #1121
Segnosaur
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
Who else is ever to blame? He's the candidate. A candidate that was supposed to attract Republican moderates. Go get them. Getting them means moving right. Just quit whining that this risks losing some left wing voters.
But... but... I thought Biden was already a right-wing Republican!

More seriously... I don't think Biden has to shift political positions. He has policies that are to the left of the political center in the U.S., but given the fact that Trump has demonstrated a tendency for going hard-right (e.g. with his tax cut policies) I think Biden will be seen as the less extreme/more moderate of the 2. (That wasn't the case in 2016, where Trump was partially an unknown, and people could 'read in' their own ideas into his promises.)

Quote:
The Clinton/Obama administrations willfully neglected the interests of the left as a political ploy.
Under Obama:
- The government adopted more liberal positions on social issues (like gay rights or marijuana)
- New financial regulations were introduced (the Frank-Dodd act)
- Tax rates on the very-rich increased (https://www.vox.com/2016/6/9/1189479...ch-one-percent)
- Millions of Americans were able to receive health insurance (some through subsidies, some through medicare/medicaid)
- Actions were taken to address climate change (such as improved fuel efficiency standards)

And, he did all that despite the fact that much of the time he had to deal with a hostile congress.

Granted, he wasn't as far left as Sanders, and he did adopt some business-friendly policies (such as various free trade deals). But the 'left' was not ignored, even if Obama was more moderate than hard-core progressives would have liked.
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Old 10th April 2020, 07:35 PM   #1122
d4m10n
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
More seriously... I don't think Biden has to shift political positions. He has policies that are to the left of the political center in the U.S.
I'd say he's been tacking to the center of the Democratic Party at least since 2008, probably earlier. I'd wager he's indistinguishable from the platform on most policy points and stated values.
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Old 11th April 2020, 04:52 AM   #1123
wareyin
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
My point is this.

Bernie's campaign brought in people that were never going to support a mainstream Democratic candidate. Now that Bernie is out, these people are probably gone too.
You know, there's a lot of whining on this board from the far left contingent whenever anyone talks about the mythical lost tribe of left wing voters. How big is this lost tribe that you're talking about here? 5 people? 5,000,000 people?

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Whining about this makes no sense. These people were never in play for Biden. If Bernie had never entered the race, they still wouldn't vote for Biden. Bernie's going to go out and campaign for Biden, and these people won't care.

Complaining about these people makes about as much sense as complaining about people voting for the Libertarian party. These votes were never obtainable for mainstream party candidates.

Perhaps that's for the best, there really aren't that many of them, proven by Bernie's inability to successfully run an insurgency campaign.
What percentage of those who voted for Sanders were the "Bernie or Bust" and what percentage were people who voted for Sanders but were/are also willing to vote for the Dem candidate in the general even if it isn't Sanders? How can you tell which one you are talking to? I'd venture to guess that the Bernie-or-Bust-ers are far, far fewer in number.

Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
If Biden loses, they are going to point at voters they had no reason to ever believe they were going to persuade and claim that was the deciding A factor, just like Hillary did in 2016.
ftfy, with the caveat that people should have every reason to believe they can convince people to vote for the candidate who most closely aligns with their goals.
Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
It's a dodge to avoid confronting the real weaknesses and mistakes in their strategy.
Yes, yes, tell me again about strategy. Cutting off your nose, then shooting yourself in the foot certainly turned out well for Bernie-or-bust-ers last time, we know.

Last edited by wareyin; 11th April 2020 at 04:55 AM.
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Old 11th April 2020, 05:18 AM   #1124
SuburbanTurkey
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post

Yes, yes, tell me again about strategy. Cutting off your nose, then shooting yourself in the foot certainly turned out well for Bernie-or-bust-ers last time, we know.
I'm pretty pleased with the groundswell of progressive and leftist politics in the last decade. It's a long term project that is going pretty well. Bernie's campaign in 2016 and 2020 highlighting the failures of neoliberalism has played an important role in that project.
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Old 11th April 2020, 10:12 AM   #1125
wareyin
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I'm pretty pleased with the groundswell of progressive and leftist politics in the last decade. It's a long term project that is going pretty well. Bernie's campaign in 2016 and 2020 highlighting the failures of neoliberalism has played an important role in that project.
If a far right politician like Trump gets elected for a second term, what does that say about the size of this groundswell? If the party who is the antithesis of progressive and leftist politics is able to maintain control of the Presidency, the Senate, the Judicial branch, and makes any inroads to taking the House, what would that say about the supposed groundswell?

What sort of strategy do Bernie's people (supporters as well as campaign) have to prevent this potentially fatal blow to these progressive and leftist policies? Right now it appears some of them are more than willing to allow these policies to be thrown aside for decades rather than accept moving towards them at anything less than 100% implemented on the first day, which again seems like a bad strategy.
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Old 13th April 2020, 10:00 AM   #1126
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post

Right now it appears some of them are more than willing to allow these policies to be thrown aside for decades rather than accept moving towards them at anything less than 100% implemented on the first day, which again seems like a bad strategy.
Basically you are arguing for incrementalism over accelerationalism, which is not a new debate on the left. Accelerationalists could give a wet slap about Biden maybe getting a few token reforms done while protecting the status quo. They want the end of the primacy of capital, by economic collapse if necessary, and supporting Biden to them would just be slowing this down.

Those guys might take a flier on Bernie, but they will never ever ever chose Biden over Trump.

Just accept these guys are not on your side and move on.
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Old 13th April 2020, 10:13 AM   #1127
wareyin
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
Basically you are arguing for incrementalism over accelerationalism, which is not a new debate on the left. Accelerationalists could give a wet slap about Biden maybe getting a few token reforms done while protecting the status quo. They want the end of the primacy of capital, by economic collapse if necessary, and supporting Biden to them would just be slowing this down.

Those guys might take a flier on Bernie, but they will never ever ever chose Biden over Trump.

Just accept these guys are not on your side and move on.
Gotcha. The guys in favor of economic collapse know that it's more likely under Trump than Biden, and so they favor Trump. Well, I don't think there is any way to reach out to the hopefully tiny group that wants our country to collapse, so yeah, not on our (collective our, Dem, Rep, Independent) side.
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Old 13th April 2020, 10:29 AM   #1128
SuburbanTurkey
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Originally Posted by Suddenly View Post
Basically you are arguing for incrementalism over accelerationalism, which is not a new debate on the left. Accelerationalists could give a wet slap about Biden maybe getting a few token reforms done while protecting the status quo. They want the end of the primacy of capital, by economic collapse if necessary, and supporting Biden to them would just be slowing this down.

Those guys might take a flier on Bernie, but they will never ever ever chose Biden over Trump.

Just accept these guys are not on your side and move on.
I don't think accelerationists wanted Bernie to win. If anything, Bernie would stymie left-wing accelerationism by delivering more moderate dem-soc reforms, rather that outright revolution. Accelerationists might prefer Trump to Biden in order to force such a crisis, but I doubt they'd have any interest in Bernie at all.

But your general point stands. There are more members of the farther left that normally would not treat electoral politics as something worth their consideration. To them, someone like Bernie might be a compromise candidate (to their right, mind you) that they might consider. With him gone, they return to their natural state of not caring about major parties in the elections.

The question is, who are these Bernie supporters who are bailing now that he is out? Is there any reason to believe they would ever support someone like Biden in general? Is there any point in getting made at these fringe cases that were not really up for grabs by a generic Democrat?
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