IS Forum
Forum Index Register Members List Events Mark Forums Read Help

Go Back   International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Trials and Errors
 


Welcome to the International Skeptics Forum, where we discuss skepticism, critical thinking, the paranormal and science in a friendly but lively way. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest, which means you are missing out on discussing matters that are of interest to you. Please consider registering so you can gain full use of the forum features and interact with other Members. Registration is simple, fast and free! Click here to register today.
Tags Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi , Lockerbie bombing , Scotland cases

Reply
Old 11th January 2021, 05:25 AM   #641
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
 
Ambrosia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 2,675
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Could you explain your working hypothesis that might be balance of probabilities?
Apologies for the late reply, I've been busy emigrating to Germany. Also the HD that has all of my old Lockerbie research on it is in a box "somewhere over there" and I can't find it atm, so am writing all this off the top of my head, if I make any glaring errors here, please point them out and I will correct/update them when I can.

So, PT/35b What is it? When was it found? Where was it found? How does it connect to the bombing of PA103? Who does it implicate?

What is it?
It is a fragment of printed circuit board (PCB) about the size of a fingernail that bears unique circuit traces from which it can be identified. If genuine, it comes from a timing circuit (MST-13) that was manufactured by MeBo. A *huge* number of investigators and researchers, both at the time and subsequently have searched for matching PCBs that this fragment can be placed in and to date there is only one match. An MST-13.

When/Where was it found?
It was found by Dr Thomas Hayes, head of the Forensics Explosives Lab at RARDE on 12 May 1989, while he was examining evidence as part of the initial investigations. It was folded into a bomb damaged shirt fragment that as known to have been in close proximity to the bomb that brought down the flight. The shirt fragment it was found in is evidence item# PI/995. The shirt fragment itself was picked up by searchers amongst lots of other debris from the crash site.

How does it connect to the bombing of PA103?
Short answer, We don't know.
Longer answer, despite being found in a bomb damaged shirt fragment, which puts it definitively inside the bomb suitcase, we can't say for sure whether or not this PCB fragment comes from the bomb itself, or was just an item in the case. If you take the view that it did form part of the bomb, which is the most likely explanation if it's provenance is genuine, then it links an MST-13 timer to the bombing and by extension MeBo.

Who does it implicate?
MeBo and whoever they sold their timers to. MeBo claim during evidence at trial to have sold 20 such timers to Libya in 1985. Also at trial it was testified by a former Stasi member that MeBo also supplied timers to the Stasi (East German secret police) circa 1985.
Megrahi was the guy tasked with obtaining items currently blocked by sanctions for Libya, and he was a known associate of Edwin Bollier, the man who ran MeBo.

Above is basically the reasoning used by the "official story" to tie Megrahi to the bombing via Libya and their procurement of MST-13 timers. Which on first glance looks fairly solid. However, it all falls apart when you start looking much closer.

Lets start with Dr Thomas Hayes. He was head of the explosives forensics lab at RARDE, the govt lab tasked with investigating anything explosives related. To say Hayes has a checkered history is something of an understatement. He previously worked on other high profile cases like that of the Maguire 7. The Maguire 7 were essentially convicted on the back of Hayes "expert forensic evidence" and it proved very wrong. The cases were quashed and after spending 15 years in prison for something they didn't do they were released. The appeal court noting that RARDE scientists had "lied and deliberately suppressed evidence" There were several other such cases, but suffice it to say that Dr Hayes was a man promoted far above his skill level, he was slapdash, disorganised, poorly qualified, and despite all of that his word in court as an "expert" witness held a lot of sway.

He claims to have found Pt/35b May 12th 1989. Only his contemporaneous notes were kept in a loose leaf(!) file and the page he used to note PT/35bs discovery was inserted at a later date into this file and subsequent pages of that file were renumbered. A situation Hayes himself at trial called an "unfathomable mystery" His colleague Dr Feraday, who was later promoted to Hayes job after he quit in late 1989 and who shares many of Hayes shortcomings (Both Hayes and Feraday were prominent scientists at RARDE involved in preparing evidence for the Maguire 7 trial, which got such scathing comments from the appeals court) was also unable to explain Hayes notes and the page numbering anomaly at trial when he was asked to do so.

We know for sure that PT/35b was known about on May 22nd. Photo 117 of the RARDE report shows PT/35b and the photo register dates that picture to May 22nd.

So we know that Hayes was at best a terrible forensic scientist, and at worst a willing stooge who has previous form of fabricating evidence, lying in court and suppressing other evidence.

So the entire provenance of this fragment is called into question.

The evidence bag containing PI/995, the bomb damaged clothing fragments was not examined until May 12 1989. So it sat in a storeroom for ~4 months between being picked up near Lockerbie and finally being examined. Ample time for someone to have tampered with it. We don't know how good security was around wherever it was stored, we can't say whether there would have been opportunity to tamper with evidence, but there would have been time to do it, and there was certainly motive to do so.

How was Pt/35b identified?
Enter Tom Thurman. June 14th 1990 in an interim report signed by both Hayes and Feraday they note that despite a great deal of effort to identify fragments of bomb circuitry to date nothing had been identified. (There is a great timeline here that show in detail a lot of the work that was done up till then to try to identify PT/35b)

It took American intelligence agencies to identify PT/35b as a fragment of an MST-13. Tom Thurman of the FBI takes the credit for it, though it was actually CIA analyst John Orkin that made the identification. Thurman claims to have been given a complete timer circuit (K1) on June 15th. Though in fact the CIA had possession of K1 since 1987.

On June 22nd Scots investigators visited the FBI in Washington where Tom Thurman showed them photos of the K1 timer sample and it's here that PT/35b is finally identified.

On the face of it a lot of painstaking police work to identify a unique PCB fragment, with co-operation between US and Scots investigators ultimately bears fruit.

PCB Testing
Large amounts of testing was conducted on PT/35b. Bits of it were cut off and analysed for metals present. It was looked at very carefully under microscopes and some of the reports conflict. You can read a long summary of scientific testing conducted in 1992 here and 1999/2000 here.

In short it was tested extensively and on balance it appears to be what it is claimed to be. A fragment of an MST-13 timer, made by MeBo, that has been damaged consistent to being in close proximity to an explosion.

MeBo was a tiny company and it's PCBs were essentially handmade. As such they contain irregularities you wouldn't get from mass produced machine made PCBs.

Timing is everything
In my head it all really comes down to one main point. MST-13 timers are clock timers. You either set a time for it to go off, or start a countdown and when the designated time is reached, or the countdown elapses, the timer activates. Why would you not set a clock timer to activate mid-flight?
If the bomb detonated midflight the plane would come down over the Atlantic and most of the debris (and any incriminating evidence it contained) would likely be lost forever at the bottom of the ocean.
It was close to Christmas, flight schedules are notorious for being late to take off at the best of times.
We know that the bomb case was planted at Heathrow the night before the flight departed.

The main alternate bomb theory is that the bomb was made by Khreesat and used an altimeter timer. As soon as an altimeter timer detects the preset atmospheric pressure it activates. It won't guarantee a mid flight detonation but it will make sure the plane is at cruising altitude.

The timing around the discovery of and identification of the MST-13 timer is also suspect. Initial investigations led police towards the PFLP-GC and Khreesat and an Iranian revenge plot. This was politically inconvenient on a number of levels for the US and the UK as noted by Paul Foot. He describes in his "Flight From Justice" a WaPo article circa 1990 by Jack Anderson describing conversations between UK PM Margaret Thatcher and US President G HW Bush and a decision made between them to downplay Iranian involvement in March 1989. Why this decision was taken is anyones guess. But the timing is curious.

March 1989 is weeks before PT/35b is discovered in evidence bag PI/995.

American intelligence have a timer they know to be uniquely manufactured by a small electronics company, in their possession in 1987, that would exclusively tie a bomb to Libya (and away from Iran) once it had been identified.

In Summary

Why do I believe PT/35b was planted?

For the timer to be genuinely part of the device that brought down PA103 the following must all be true.

i) The bombers chose a really dumb time to activate their bomb
ii) The bombers used a unique timer. A clock timer is a very simple device and there are thousands of options, but they used this one particular timer that can only have come from one source.
iii) Despite Hayes previous form he conducted honest and truthful analysis on the Lockerbie evidence and his misnumbered notes was an honest mistake.
iv) The way that the timing of the fragments discovery lines up with politcal considerations is just a coincidence.

I can believe that one or two of these is true, all four of them though starts to strain credibility.

I believe that a political decision was taken at the highest levels of govt in March 1989 to steer investigations away from Iran and towards a n other bad actor. I think that PT/35b is indeed an explosion damaged fragment of a genuine MST-13 board, but I think it was planted in late March 1989 into evidence bag PI/995. Perhaps it's identity was discovered through honest police work by determined investigators, perhaps people in the US were nudged towards its identification.

I think that a bomber would set a clock timer to detonate mid-atlantic and not relatively shortly after take off.

I think that Hayes in particular having previous form for lying under oath and misrepresenting forensic evidence gave the powers that be a window that they used. (I don't think Hayes is a bad person, I think he believed he was doing the best he could to put bad people in prison, though I do think he is utterly incompetent)

I think that on balance the evidence shows manipulation, it shows convenient timing and the weight of evidence in all probability supports PT/35b not to be a genuine part of the timing circuitry used in the bomb that brought down PA103.

That's the crux of my hypothesis. I might be wrong. I'd welcome other evidence to show where I might be wrong.
Ambrosia is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 12th January 2021, 11:20 AM   #642
LittleSwan
Scholar
 
LittleSwan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 93
PI/995 was received by RARDE on 8 February 1989.

What do you think of AG/145 and everything else pointing to the Toshiba radio?
I believe PT/35b was planted by Rick Hahn at Dextar and AG/145 by Thomas Thurman at Longtown mid January 1989.

There was no MST13 timer and there was no Toshiba RT-SF16 radio.
Unfortunately I cannot prove it.
LittleSwan is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th January 2021, 06:33 AM   #643
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
 
Ambrosia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 2,675
Originally Posted by LittleSwan View Post
What do you think of AG/145 and everything else pointing to the Toshiba radio?
AG/145 is the evidence tag given to circuit board fragments that were later identified as the Toshiba radio the bomb was encased in. They were found folded up in a part of the luggage container by the AAIB.

I don't have a problem with the Toshiba radio id at all. If anything it's more evidence pointing towards a bomb of Khreesat manufacture.

Whoever made up the case that contained the bomb went to some lengths to make it appear like a tourists case if someone opened it and looked inside.
They bought new clothes from Gauci's shop and the bomb itself would have been hidden inside something. In Dec '88 airport security had been warned to take extra care regarding checking consumer electronics because of what the BKA had found in it's Autumn Leaves raid on Oct 26th 1988.

While the case was just put directly into a luggage container and so bypassed airport security entirely, whoever packed the case might have expected it to go through security at some point.

Hayes stated at trial that in PI/995 the shirt fragments that contained PT/35b they were more concerned initially with the torn radio manual pages also embedded in the shirt that later led toward identifying the Toshiba radio.

There were bomb tests conducted in the US at Indian Head where they packed cases inside luggage containers, and on occasion small fragments of PCB survived. While I think that the size of PT/35b means it's way less likely that that fragment survived the explosion on PA103 given how big it is, the Toshiba PCB fragments are way smaller.
Also explosions are extremely chaotic complex events, so it remains possible that PT/35b did in fact survive the explosion, so I haven't listed that in my hypothesis for that reason. It's a bit too speculative in my book.
Ambrosia is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th January 2021, 07:45 AM   #644
Chris_Halkides
Philosopher
 
Chris_Halkides's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,988
on laboratory notebooks in general

Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post

He claims to have found Pt/35b May 12th 1989. Only his contemporaneous notes were kept in a loose leaf(!) file and the page he used to note PT/35bs discovery was inserted at a later date into this file and subsequent pages of that file were renumbered. A situation Hayes himself at trial called an "unfathomable mystery" His colleague Dr Feraday, who was later promoted to Hayes job after he quit in late 1989 and who shares many of Hayes shortcomings (Both Hayes and Feraday were prominent scientists at RARDE involved in preparing evidence for the Maguire 7 trial, which got such scathing comments from the appeals court) was also unable to explain Hayes notes and the page numbering anomaly at trial when he was asked to do so.
I wanted to make a brief comment on this from the point of view of how laboratory notebooks are generally kept. One usually starts with a bound notebook, and each page should have a page number and a date. Only pen, not pencil should be used. In some instances a supervisor initials it. The obvious problems with loose leaf notebooks are that one can remove unwanted pages, or change their order.

Rolfe and I have conversed about this before, but I don't recall the details. It may be that the keeping of loose-leaf notebooks was in some way related to another one of the bombing miscarriages that happened in the 1970s, that of the Birmingham Six. It eventually became known that someone ripped out pages of one of the laboratory notebooks in the laboratory in which Dr. Skuse worked (this is discussed in more detail in another thread), which is a different laboratory.

If I were on a jury and found out that notes were either destroyed or not kept properly, I would lean strongly toward giving such evidence little or no weight. To do otherwise gives no incentive to the lab to do things correctly. However one problem with this point of view is that such occurrences do not always surface at the trial, and appeals courts are IMO often too reluctant to take action.
__________________
It is possible both to be right about an issue and to take oneself a little too seriously, but I would rather be reminded of that by a friend than a foe. (a tip of the hat to Foolmewunz)
Chris_Halkides is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 13th January 2021, 08:57 AM   #645
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
Just checking in to the thread, because I only just saw the new posts. I need to read and digest these.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 14th January 2021, 08:19 AM   #646
LittleSwan
Scholar
 
LittleSwan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 93
From the trial transcript

Q And if other officers from, say, search teams arrived and had to enter the premises, was
any record made of their presence?
A Everyone who entered Dextar was recorded, logged in and logged out.
Q I see.
A Including staff.
Q And if visitors who were not police officers had to attend for some purpose, what
arrangements were made?
A They would be logged in, but they would be directly supervised by a police member of
staff. They would never be left alone in Dextar.

Do we have access to this log-in, log-out information?

Last edited by LittleSwan; 14th January 2021 at 08:21 AM.
LittleSwan is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 14th January 2021, 01:13 PM   #647
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
The appeal decision is due at midday tomorrow. Right now I think we're doomed.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 05:12 AM   #648
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
I knew it. They've rejected the appeal.

When I started this over eleven years ago I believed that if the truth could be proved, if the case could be made clearly, the legal system would correct matters. I have learned since then that we have a corrupt legal system, absolutely willing to bow to outside pressure and I think in this case largely from America.

It's not just this case, it's Shirley McKie, Luke Mitchell, what's going on at the moment with Alex Salmond, and other less prominent things like Craig Murray and Mark Hirst and the defamation case against Kezia Dugdale. It's depressing.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 05:58 AM   #649
Nessie
Penultimate Amazing
 
Nessie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 13,008
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I knew it. They've rejected the appeal.

When I started this over eleven years ago I believed that if the truth could be proved, if the case could be made clearly, the legal system would correct matters. I have learned since then that we have a corrupt legal system, absolutely willing to bow to outside pressure and I think in this case largely from America.

It's not just this case, it's Shirley McKie, Luke Mitchell, what's going on at the moment with Alex Salmond, and other less prominent things like Craig Murray and Mark Hirst and the defamation case against Kezia Dugdale. It's depressing.
I was also saddened to hear about the failure of the appeal. It is not quite over yet, but I have no faith in our CJ system to admit to error and accept responsibility.

I would add the Lord Advocate, James Wolffe QC and his admitted malicious prosecution of the former administrators of Rangers FC, David Whitehouse and Paul Clark to your list.
__________________
Audiophile/biker/sceptic
Nessie is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 06:40 AM   #650
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
Oh yes, I'd forgotten that one. There are bound to be more.

The Luke Mitchell one stands out in that it doesn't seem to be political in any way. Even Shirley's case was political because it turned on the question of whether or not the pronouncements of fingerprint analysts could be taken as gospel truth. The correct answer to that was no, but that wasn't politically acceptable.

I suppose the Luke Mitchell one is political in a way because it became about protecting the original investigation from being exposed as utterly incompetent. Which is bad enough.

They're not getting it all their own way on the Salmond thing. The jury threw out the ludicrous and trumped-up case, and the sheriff also threw out the ridiculous case against Mark Hirst as "no case to answer". It's the fact that these cases were ever pursued and brought to court that's the scandal, that and the fact that the establishment and media are still treating Salmond as if he'd been found guilty and protecting his lying accusers as if they were victims.

Craig Murray expects to be convicted and jailed though, as they have to get some sort of scalp and he's the chosen on in that respect.

It was watching all this unfold over the past year or two that convinced me there wasn't a hope in hell of the Lockerbie appeal succeeding. I swear they could find long-lost CCTV footage from Heathrow Terminal 3 showing an intruder placing that suitase in the container while Bedford was on his tea break, and they'd still find some way to dismiss that as inadmissible.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 06:47 AM   #651
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
 
Ambrosia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 2,675
sad news

albeit somewhat unsurprising.
Ambrosia is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 08:12 AM   #652
Guybrush Threepwood
Trainee Pirate
 
Guybrush Threepwood's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: An Uaimh
Posts: 3,076
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I knew it. They've rejected the appeal.

When I started this over eleven years ago I believed that if the truth could be proved, if the case could be made clearly, the legal system would correct matters. I have learned since then that we have a corrupt legal system, absolutely willing to bow to outside pressure and I think in this case largely from America.

It's not just this case, it's Shirley McKie, Luke Mitchell, what's going on at the moment with Alex Salmond, and other less prominent things like Craig Murray and Mark Hirst and the defamation case against Kezia Dugdale. It's depressing.
It's disappointing, and hard for everyone who worked hard on the appeal, but the Lockerbie case is pretty much the poster child for a case which isn't going to be allowed to reveal flaws in the Scottish criminal justice system.

I know I've said it before but no-one is going to bring down the justice system over a dead sand ****** who used to work for a very unpleasant government, especially not when the chances of there being a similar case in future is essentially zero.
Guybrush Threepwood is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 08:19 AM   #653
Nessie
Penultimate Amazing
 
Nessie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 13,008
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
... Even Shirley's case was political because it turned on the question of whether or not the pronouncements of fingerprint analysts could be taken as gospel truth. The correct answer to that was no, but that wasn't politically acceptable.

...
The recent Independent Review into police complaints handling and investigations shows how what happened with Shirley McKie was also political, as in a decision was made to get her, no matter what the evidence was.

That Review lays bare how often those police officers tasked with investigating complaints about other officers are often driven by their own impressions and the relative popularity or not of the cop being complained about and who is making the complaint.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/pr...cing/pages/18/

McKie was unpopular, I never met her, but I met a few who had worked with her over the years and no one liked her. So, when a cause to complain surfaced, everyone piled in and the investigation was one designed to get her. I worked with a cop who was not popular and when he did something that generated a complaint, such was the demand to drive him out of the job, an Assistant Chief Constable announced to a room full of probationers that he was being sacked. That was before his hearing!

Police Scotland have been caught out trying to cover up assaults and other crimes by police officers, by recording them as excessive force or quality of service complaints;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-46114502

Those will be the cops who are popular with supervisors, or who have done something serious that PSD want to cover up and reduce the number of cops who are just criminals.

Policing and the rest of the CJ system is not primarily driven by evidence. Politics play far too great a role, from drives to meet targets, to officers looking for promotion, to cover-ups, to sheer incompetence and laziness.
__________________
Audiophile/biker/sceptic
Nessie is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 09:00 AM   #654
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
That seems to me to cover the Luke Mitchell case as well, and that's probably the worst one of the lot because there's an innocent man in Shotts (I think) prison right now who has been in jail since he was 16 and he's now 31. He never even got to finish his education after getting his O grades, and by all accounts he was a smart kid who loved outdoor pursuits and even had his own horse.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 09:29 AM   #655
Chris_Halkides
Philosopher
 
Chris_Halkides's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,988
A big disappointment

I am very disappointed as well, particularly given that so much hard work has been put into understanding this case and explaining it to those who are interested. I have to wonder whether or not there is a fundamental inability to admit error that is somehow baked into to the Scottish system (I regret that I cannot find the correct way to say this); if you cannot figure out that Luke Mitchell was wrongly convicted, you are unlikely ever to figure out that anyone was. At least the British* eventually released the Birmingham Six case in the end, although the case was risible from the start.
EDT
*I should have said English.
__________________
It is possible both to be right about an issue and to take oneself a little too seriously, but I would rather be reminded of that by a friend than a foe. (a tip of the hat to Foolmewunz)

Last edited by Chris_Halkides; 15th January 2021 at 10:42 AM.
Chris_Halkides is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 15th January 2021, 10:29 AM   #656
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
I am very disappointed as well, particularly given that so much hard work has been put into understanding this case and explaining it to those who are interested. I have to wonder whether or not there is a fundamental inability to admit error that is somehow baked into to the Scottish system (I regret that I cannot find the correct way to say this); if you cannot figure out that Luke Mitchell was wrongly convicted, you are unlikely ever to figure out that anyone was. At least the British English eventually released the Birmingham Six case in the end, although the case was risible from the start.

Yes, I fear very much that you are right. The Scottish system seems very short of notorious proven miscarriage of justice cases (as in, successful appeal and the appellant freed and vindicated) such as you find in England and most other jurisdictions. I don't think this is because they seldom or never get it wrong.

What is going on at the moment is particularly shocking, and I am speaking about the preposterous prosecution of a former First Minister for such heinous alleged crimes as pinging someone's ringlet, putting an arm round someone who was crying, and giving someone a nudge in the back to hurry her up an outside staircase in the rain when she was blocking the way.

They lost on that one thanks to the jury, but they're behaving as if they won the case and are hell-bent on getting at least one of Salmond's supporters jailed. Journalists who quite clearly identified one or more of the "alphabet women" but who are on the establisment side and writing critically about Salmond have been given a free pass, but others who said far less about the case have been prosecuted because they were writing on Salmond's side.

The responses to freedom of information requests trying to find out what the hell has been going on have been obfuscatory in the extreme. Something is rotten in the state and I think it's more than just not being able to admit error. It was this realisation that made me realise there was no prospect of a successful appeal.

In fact the Kezia Dugdale defamation findings, although relatively trivial and a civil matter, were perhaps the clearest illustration for me that if you're a person within the establishment then you will not lose, if you're a thorn in the side of the establishment you will, no matter how good your case. (Juries perhaps being the wild card, although that didn't help Luke Mitchell.)

It seems odd that a former First Minister is in the latter category, but then remember who this is, and that his opponent is the current First Minister who is clearly working for the establishment even though the establishment likes to monster her from time to time.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 16th January 2021, 03:18 AM   #657
Samson
Philosopher
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,398
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Yes, I fear very much that you are right. The Scottish system seems very short of notorious proven miscarriage of justice cases (as in, successful appeal and the appellant freed and vindicated) such as you find in England and most other jurisdictions. I don't think this is because they seldom or never get it wrong.

What is going on at the moment is particularly shocking, and I am speaking about the preposterous prosecution of a former First Minister for such heinous alleged crimes as pinging someone's ringlet, putting an arm round someone who was crying, and giving someone a nudge in the back to hurry her up an outside staircase in the rain when she was blocking the way.

They lost on that one thanks to the jury, but they're behaving as if they won the case and are hell-bent on getting at least one of Salmond's supporters jailed. Journalists who quite clearly identified one or more of the "alphabet women" but who are on the establisment side and writing critically about Salmond have been given a free pass, but others who said far less about the case have been prosecuted because they were writing on Salmond's side.

The responses to freedom of information requests trying to find out what the hell has been going on have been obfuscatory in the extreme. Something is rotten in the state and I think it's more than just not being able to admit error. It was this realisation that made me realise there was no prospect of a successful appeal.

In fact the Kezia Dugdale defamation findings, although relatively trivial and a civil matter, were perhaps the clearest illustration for me that if you're a person within the establishment then you will not lose, if you're a thorn in the side of the establishment you will, no matter how good your case. (Juries perhaps being the wild card, although that didn't help Luke Mitchell.)

It seems odd that a former First Minister is in the latter category, but then remember who this is, and that his opponent is the current First Minister who is clearly working for the establishment even though the establishment likes to monster her from time to time.
Your post is a really scenic route, much to discuss in the New Zealand context, and I can see how Lockerbie matters.
Historians require accuracy, many years we have to work on the goal.
Samson is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th January 2021, 05:03 AM   #658
Elaedith
Graduate Poster
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,462
Would like to know more about the reasons (rationalisations?) for this, but the link to the written judgement on scotcourts.gov.uk appears to be broken atm.

Last edited by Elaedith; 17th January 2021 at 05:04 AM.
Elaedith is online now   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th January 2021, 05:12 AM   #659
Matthew Best
Philosopher
 
Matthew Best's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Leicester Square, London
Posts: 8,212
Here it is:

https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/d...7.pdf?sfvrsn=0
Matthew Best is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th January 2021, 07:26 PM   #660
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
 
Roger Ramjets's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,342
Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I knew it. They've rejected the appeal.

When I started this over eleven years ago I believed that if the truth could be proved, if the case could be made clearly, the legal system would correct matters.
What truth was proved, and where was the case made clearly?
__________________
We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good.
Roger Ramjets is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th January 2021, 08:47 PM   #661
Ampulla of Vater
Illuminator
 
Ampulla of Vater's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: North of the White Line of Toldt
Posts: 3,105
You didn’t read Rolfe’s book, did you?
Ampulla of Vater is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 17th January 2021, 08:47 PM   #662
Chris_Halkides
Philosopher
 
Chris_Halkides's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,988
Heathrow

Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
What truth was proved, and where was the case made clearly?
There is a good book on the case called Adequately Explained by Stupidity, that discusses the luggage handling aspect of the case and bears on the question of whether the bomb was introduced on the Frankfort flight or was introduced at Heathrow Airport. It has been some time since I have read it.
__________________
It is possible both to be right about an issue and to take oneself a little too seriously, but I would rather be reminded of that by a friend than a foe. (a tip of the hat to Foolmewunz)
Chris_Halkides is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 18th January 2021, 04:34 AM   #663
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
 
Ambrosia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 2,675
Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
What truth was proved, and where was the case made clearly?
That the bomb was loaded at Heathrow and was not interlined via a fight from Malta.

We can prove this from available evidence beyond a reasonable doubt.

It's all laid out over several meandering threads from several years back in the CT section (this sub-forum exists in part because discussion about the Lockerbie miscarriage of justice doesn't really belong in the CT sub-forum) although it's mixed up with a lot of other Lockerbie stuff and is hard to follow.

It's laid out much more clearly in the book Adequately Explained By Stupidity which includes lots more detail that isn't in the threads here.

Notably the SCCRC did NOT include the new evidence re the Heathrow bomb introduction in this appeal. From the recent appeal judgement:

Quote:
The restricted nature of the grounds of appeal
means that many facts, which were found by the trial court and were contested at the trial,
in the original appeal and/or in the abandoned appeal, are not now challenged. The court
must accept these facts as proved
.
[8] They include that:

[...]

(8) on the morning of 21 December, the suitcase left Luqa airport in Malta
as unaccompanied baggage on Air Malta flight KM 180 to Frankfurt;
(my highlighting)

So there is new evidence, that proves that point (8) of the "facts accepted as proved" by this appeal judge, is anything but.
The SCCRC in their infinite wisdom however chose not to pursue this avenue for this appeal.

Which leaves us with 2 possible scenarios.

i) The "Heathrow Evidence" is badly flawed and does not prove the bomb was loaded at Heathrow (read the book and decide for yourself)

ii) The SCCRC are not interested in overturning Megrahis conviction in the slightest.
Ambrosia is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 21st January 2021, 01:31 PM   #664
LondonJohn
Penultimate Amazing
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 16,493
Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
That the bomb was loaded at Heathrow and was not interlined via a fight from Malta.

We can prove this from available evidence beyond a reasonable doubt.

It's all laid out over several meandering threads from several years back in the CT section (this sub-forum exists in part because discussion about the Lockerbie miscarriage of justice doesn't really belong in the CT sub-forum) although it's mixed up with a lot of other Lockerbie stuff and is hard to follow.

It's laid out much more clearly in the book Adequately Explained By Stupidity which includes lots more detail that isn't in the threads here.

Notably the SCCRC did NOT include the new evidence re the Heathrow bomb introduction in this appeal. From the recent appeal judgement:



(my highlighting)

So there is new evidence, that proves that point (8) of the "facts accepted as proved" by this appeal judge, is anything but.
The SCCRC in their infinite wisdom however chose not to pursue this avenue for this appeal.

Which leaves us with 2 possible scenarios.

i) The "Heathrow Evidence" is badly flawed and does not prove the bomb was loaded at Heathrow (read the book and decide for yourself)

ii) The SCCRC are not interested in overturning Megrahis conviction in the slightest.


Unfortunately though, the root of the problem here is this:

Courts of appeal (throughout the "westernised" world, at least) almost always take the view that if certain "new" evidence either could or should have been introduced (and argued) in the original trial, it cannot be introduced as part of any appeal.

So in this particular case, the argument pointing to the bomb case having been introduced at LHR - strong as it appears to be - is entirely predicated on evidence that was, in principle, available to al-Megrahi's defence team at the time of the original trial.

Had, say, a LHR baggage handler come forward after the original trial to swear in an affidavit that he definitely loaded that brown Samsonite, or had new CCTV come to light since the trial showing clearly the bomb case being loaded on at Heathrow, then the CoA in this case would almost certainly have allowed the matter of the bomb case ingestion to form part of the grounds of appeal.


There are sound reasons in jurisprudence why courts of appeal should work in this way. In short, it's to guard against the defence (or the prosecution) seeking to "re-try" the case. Unfortunately what this amounts to in practice here is this: if certain evidence was (or could have been) available to al-Megrahi's defence team in sufficient time before the original trial, and yet that evidence was not introduced by his defence team in that original trial, then that's the fault of al-Megrahi and his defence counsel (unless it could be shown that al-Megrahi's defence counsel in that original trial was sufficiently substandard as to constitute grounds for appeal in its own right...).

It sucks, all the more so when one wonders how the original trial might have gone if all of this suitcase-ingestion evidence had indeed been introduced and properly argued at that point. But that's the way it is.
LondonJohn is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2021, 02:25 PM   #665
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
 
Roger Ramjets's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,342
Originally Posted by Ambrosia View Post
That the bomb was loaded at Heathrow and was not interlined via a fight from Malta.

We can prove this from available evidence beyond a reasonable doubt...

So there is new evidence, that proves that point (8) of the "facts accepted as proved" by this appeal judge, is anything but.

The SCCRC in their infinite wisdom however chose not to pursue this avenue for this appeal.

Which leaves us with 2 possible scenarios.

i) The "Heathrow Evidence" is badly flawed and does not prove the bomb was loaded at Heathrow...

ii) The SCCRC are not interested in overturning Megrahis conviction in the slightest.
Does this mean your allegation that the timer fragment was planted is irrelevant, or should we be pushing to expose it? Al-Megrahi is dead, there is nothing we can do for him now. But if there really was 'a political decision taken at the highest levels of govt' to fake a case against him then we cannot let it stand. The ramifications go far beyond this case.

If what you say is true then people 'at the highest levels of govt' must been complicit and are continuing to cover it up. But how can we prove that? More importantly, what can we do to stop this sort of thing from happening again?
__________________
We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good.
Roger Ramjets is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2021, 02:42 PM   #666
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
People, including retired senior lawyers and police officers, have been doing their damndest to expose this for over ten years. I personally have worked extremely hard within the team they pulled together, towards this aim. Unfortunately the power of the state is not to be trifled with.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

Last edited by Rolfe; 23rd January 2021 at 02:43 PM.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2021, 07:13 PM   #667
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,649
There are people posting here who are extremely conversant with the facts which I am not. So I apologise if what I ask seems stupid.

If there was a cover up it must have been from Downing Street, Thatcher. Given that the Scottish judicial system was independent of England, and the current Scottish government and hierarchy are likely to have little love for Thatcher surely there would be a political imperative within Scotland not to co-operate with a cover-up?

Even more so given the rabid anti-Iranian sentiments of the recent US executive, why are the US not enthusiastically seeking to blame Iran? Even Israel, which normally has excellent intelligence and is equally opposed to Iran does not seem to be pointing the finger.

There seems to be no case made for why the US and UK sought to exonerate Iran. What was of such value that the UK, US and israel have covered up Iran's involvement in a major terrorist act. A cover up that if it was leaked would have been devastating to the governments. That this was sufficiently important that they obtained covertly a timer that could be associated with Libya, managed to blow it up not quite enough to make it unidentifiable but nearly so, then plant it, relying on it being discovered and then identified. The whole thing would have needed many peoples involvement and the chances of a leak would be high. It was also very dependant on no evidence being recoverable that clearly pointed in another direction. I suspect there would have been easier ways to point the finger at Libya than the very convoluted method of the timer fragment.

Iran may have been the instigator, perhaps utilising Libyan resources, or doing it in such a way that Libya would be blamed.

I can believe in gross incompetence and stupidity far more easily than the complex multi-national conspiracy proposed.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 23rd January 2021, 08:34 PM   #668
Chris_Halkides
Philosopher
 
Chris_Halkides's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,988
Consider the Birmingham Six

Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
I can believe in gross incompetence and stupidity far more easily than the complex multi-national conspiracy proposed.
With respect to the Birmingham Six case, Chris Mullin wrote, "A long procession of police officers ranging in rank from detective constable to chief superintendent gave evidence that no one had laid a finger on the suspects. In his summing up the judge outlined, in tones of incredulity, the scale of the conspiracy the police would have to have engaged in if the defendants were telling the truth. We now know that a conspiracy on this scale is essentially what did occur."

Yes, the two cases are very different, and no, I am not one that is extremely well steeped in the Lockerbie case. But let me suggest as a starting point, that there is a difference between a conspiracy and a conspiracy theory. It took the better part of twenty years for the Birmingham Six to be released, when it should have been obvious from the start that the case was rubbish.
__________________
It is possible both to be right about an issue and to take oneself a little too seriously, but I would rather be reminded of that by a friend than a foe. (a tip of the hat to Foolmewunz)
Chris_Halkides is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2021, 03:27 AM   #669
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,649
Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
With respect to the Birmingham Six case, Chris Mullin wrote, "A long procession of police officers ranging in rank from detective constable to chief superintendent gave evidence that no one had laid a finger on the suspects. In his summing up the judge outlined, in tones of incredulity, the scale of the conspiracy the police would have to have engaged in if the defendants were telling the truth. We now know that a conspiracy on this scale is essentially what did occur."

Yes, the two cases are very different, and no, I am not one that is extremely well steeped in the Lockerbie case. But let me suggest as a starting point, that there is a difference between a conspiracy and a conspiracy theory. It took the better part of twenty years for the Birmingham Six to be released, when it should have been obvious from the start that the case was rubbish.
I think there is a difference between police covering up for what was criminal but was not that uncommon at the time, within themselves. Something that was probably unplanned and once people turned a blind eye initially they were committed to continue doing so. As compared with a complex pre-planned multi-national conspiracy involving many people from many different agencies. just obtaining the timer, and carefully blowing it up is a tremendous process in itself.

The motive in the former case is easy to see, the police under pressure to get a conviction, the emotion being even greater than the emotion against the 'terrorists' who invaded the capitol where some people were arguing that they should have been shot down in the streets, even though they did not plant bombs killing many people.

In the latter case I have heard no explanation for the motivation for covering up Iran's involvement.

Another example might be the Hillsborough disaster. after the fact there was a conspiracy of silence in the police. But the allegations that Margaret Thatcher ordered the cover up to punish the people of Liverpool although widely circulated and supported turned out to be untrue.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2021, 05:47 AM   #670
Chris_Halkides
Philosopher
 
Chris_Halkides's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 9,988
trotting around the track one more time

I am not sure why you are focused on Iran. Rolfe, for example, has said that she does not know who is responsible and has been very clear not to point a finger and say definitively that this or that country is responsible.

If the bomb did not come from Frankfort but instead was put on at Heathrow (and I am convinced on this point), then the case that was put forth is very wrong. I also find the identification of Mr. Megrahi to be weak. I skimmed the appeal document, and I saw that they are trotting out the same arguments that I have heard before, that the lack of certainty on the part of the witness makes his identification more believable. As we say in North Carolina, what tommyrot.
EDT
If there were a conspiracy in this situation, it might have come about from a chance alignment of interests of the parties. I don't have a good example at the moment.
__________________
It is possible both to be right about an issue and to take oneself a little too seriously, but I would rather be reminded of that by a friend than a foe. (a tip of the hat to Foolmewunz)

Last edited by Chris_Halkides; 24th January 2021 at 06:32 AM.
Chris_Halkides is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2021, 12:13 PM   #671
Planigale
Illuminator
 
Planigale's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: 49 North
Posts: 4,649
Originally Posted by Chris_Halkides View Post
I am not sure why you are focused on Iran. Rolfe, for example, has said that she does not know who is responsible and has been very clear not to point a finger and say definitively that this or that country is responsible.

If the bomb did not come from Frankfort but instead was put on at Heathrow (and I am convinced on this point), then the case that was put forth is very wrong. I also find the identification of Mr. Megrahi to be weak. I skimmed the appeal document, and I saw that they are trotting out the same arguments that I have heard before, that the lack of certainty on the part of the witness makes his identification more believable. As we say in North Carolina, what tommyrot.
EDT
If there were a conspiracy in this situation, it might have come about from a chance alignment of interests of the parties. I don't have a good example at the moment.
Poor communication on my part. I was responding to comments by Ambrosia

Quote:
Why do I believe PT/35b was planted?
Rolfe (less definitively)

Quote:
Ken Dornstein (whom I have met, and who is so keen on his own theory as to be impervious to any other evidence) seems to have been fed the "evidence" relating to Masoud and facilitated in his investigative trip into Libya to "uncover" and "reveal" this, as a documentary-maker and relative of a victim.
Quote:
I have learned since then that we have a corrupt legal system, absolutely willing to bow to outside pressure and I think in this case largely from America.
Little Swan

Quote:
I believe PT/35b was planted by Rick Hahn at Dextar and AG/145 by Thomas Thurman at Longtown mid January 1989.
As roger Ramjets says

Quote:
If what you say is true then people 'at the highest levels of govt' must been complicit and are continuing to cover it up. But how can we prove that? More importantly, what can we do to stop this sort of thing from happening again?
The sole object of the conspiracy suggested in the above comments seems to be to shift guilt from Iran to Libya.

As said I have no problems with the concept of a miscarriage of justice, and that Megrahi was innocent. i recognise that judicial authorities are reluctant to accept that the system can make errors. There seems to be good evidence of incompetence from has been said by the forensic scientist examining the bomb.

What I have trouble with is the idea that there was an international conspiracy to cause this rather than the usual human frailty.

I suspect I have responded to something that is not core to the issue here and had best leave it alone.
Planigale is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 24th January 2021, 01:56 PM   #672
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
These are reasonable points but I don't have the answers. I'm inclined to observe that that way madness lies.

I think there was a chance alignment of interests by the parties, and a lethal combination of investigator incompetence and political signals coming from above as to what lines of investigation were acceptable and which weren't. That's back at the beginning. Then once the various parties have become entrenched in their errors and resistant to backtracking, the retrospective confirmation bias and backside-covering just goes on and on.

I do not know whether evidence was planted, or whether misdirection was intentional at the start. Close one eye and you get a yes, close the other and you get a no. There are a number of pretty compelling points that suggest evidence fabrication but I can't construct a plausible narrative of how and when and why that might have been done. Every time I try the train of thought runs into the sand.

All I know is that the bomb was introduced at Heathrow, and although a fragment that appeared to have come from a countdown timer was found in the wreckage everything about this disaster points to an altimeter timer being what actually detonated the bomb.

I think tray 8848 is a bigger mystery than the PCB fragment and if we knew how that came to be there we could probably see where the solution to the mystery lies.

So no, I don't have the answers, I just know that the ones the Crown Office are so dead set on are wrong, and now that they have seen the evidence relating to Heathrow and chosen to reject it and bury it and hang their hats on an extremely dodgy confession that has all the hallmarks of coercion (and they have refused to state that they are satisfied it wasn't obtained by torture), they are utterly corrupt.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

Last edited by Rolfe; 24th January 2021 at 01:58 PM.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 25th January 2021, 09:00 AM   #673
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
 
Ambrosia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 2,675
Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
If there was a cover up it must have been from Downing Street, Thatcher. Given that the Scottish judicial system was independent of England, and the current Scottish government and hierarchy are likely to have little love for Thatcher surely there would be a political imperative within Scotland not to co-operate with a cover-up?

Even more so given the rabid anti-Iranian sentiments of the recent US executive, why are the US not enthusiastically seeking to blame Iran?
I suspect that if one was able to answer those questions then you'd crack the case.

I'd guess that the orders came from the US, that Thatcher was infatuated with maintaining the "special relationship" at all costs and the whole thing was justified along the lines of maintaining "national security" or somesuch.

I don't know. To this day I don't understand how the investigation took a sudden turn away from Iranians and the PFLP-GC who were at the start of the investigation the prime suspects towards Libya.
Normally you'd expect there to be some piece of very damming evidence implicating Libya or exonerating Iran, but there isn't any such piece of evidence. Certainly none that 30+ years later is now in the public domain.

Quote:
There seems to be no case made for why the US and UK sought to exonerate Iran.
At the time of the Vincennes disaster Iran was screaming for bloody revenge over the killing of it's citizens and vowed to down *many* aircraft in response. If Lockerbie was an Iranian plot, then they attacked one aircraft in revenge, if it was not Iranian then there was no revenge at all.

Quote:
What was of such value that the UK, US and israel have covered up Iran's involvement in a major terrorist act.
What do Israel have to do with anything?

Quote:
That this was sufficiently important that they obtained covertly a timer that could be associated with Libya, managed to blow it up not quite enough to make it unidentifiable but nearly so, then plant it, relying on it being discovered and then identified.
According to my theory on PT/35b they already had the timer in their possession and already knew that it's identification would point to Libya and Libya only. They didn't have to blow it up they just had to break a piece of circuit off and place it in an evidence bag, and they identified it themselves after the Scots police drew a blank on it for over a year.

I agree with you that some kind of plot that was hatched from the highest levels of govt across two countries makes little sense. If that is what happened then how it hasn't leaked by now is another baffling thing in a long list of baffling things about the whole case, but, the actual physical evidence part, that's trivially easy to organise.

Quote:
I suspect there would have been easier ways to point the finger at Libya than the very convoluted method of the timer fragment.

I can believe in gross incompetence and stupidity far more easily than the complex multi-national conspiracy proposed.
metoo.

I am not saying PT/35b was planted, I am saying that after researching the thing for months I think that it's the most likely explanation for it's existence.

Yes, even though that would mean a co-ordinated effort to blame Libya rather than Iran stretched across two countries governments for motives I can't explain. I know that makes me sound like a wingnut conspiracy loon, but hey.

It's possible I am very wrong. I'd quite like it if I was very wrong.

Though ultimately this is all academic as the truth of what actually happened won't come out until long after we're all dead, if at all.
Ambrosia is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th January 2021, 08:48 AM   #674
Rolfe
Anti-homeopathy illuminati member
 
Rolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NT 150 511
Posts: 46,968
I think that the persitent leaks that there was an agreement between the US and Iran that the US would tolerate a single aircraft being hit in revenge for IR655, so long as it was limited to one, should not be entirely dismissed. "Holy moral dilemma, Batman," as a friend said when I explained that one to her. Tam Dalyell called it a Faustian pact.

That could explain why the US wanted the investigation to turn away from Iran, and might even have been motivated to plant some evidence implicating the standard fall-guy for anything and everything, Libya.

If that were the case, the question arises as to how much the US authorities knew about the specifics in advance. Did they know which plane it was going to be, and if they did, how far in advance? Is there anything to be read into Buck Revell's son having his leave dates changed so that he had to change to an earlier flight? (If the son of the head of the FBI had been a victim, that might have been a bit awkward.) Is it possible certain people (Bernt Carlsson, Charles McKee and his party) could have been deliberately manipulated on to the flight to get them out of the way? If so, who by?

I can see how tray 8849 might have been engineered to point to Malta, but the question is who did that, and how does that feed into the entire set of computer baggage records being wiped without a backup being taken, and the subsequent surfacing of that extraordinarily convenient printout?

The potential planting of PT/35b is more complicated than it seems at first sight, as that scrap of shirt collar did fall out of the sky. Were the bits of radio in it also planted? If all this was done it was planned before the plane went down. It has often been said that the plane should have gone down in the Irish Sea if it hadn't been routed further north that evening to avoid bad weather. How would that lot have been planted if the plane had gone down in the sea? Drop them on Blackpool beach?

But on the other hand I have no concrete proof that the Daventry departure route wasn't standard for PA103, and if it was one could reasonably predict the plane would come down somewhere in northern England or southern Scotland, on land.

That's as far as I go. I don't know who made PT/35b, or where or when or for what purpose. That would also be worth knowing.
__________________
"The way we vote will depend, ultimately, on whether we are persuaded to hope or to fear." - Aonghas MacNeacail, June 2012.

Last edited by Rolfe; 26th January 2021 at 08:50 AM.
Rolfe is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Old 26th January 2021, 03:58 PM   #675
Ambrosia
Good of the Fods
 
Ambrosia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 2,675
One thing I neglected to post earlier re: PT/35b was about the "number of people that need to be in on it"

*If* (and it remains a huge if) the circuit board fragment PT/35b was indeed planted into evidence who would have had to know about it, and how many people would need to remain quiet after the fact??

I make it less than ten people.
  • US intel chief(s) - perhaps Reagan, perhaps he was kept out of the loop, but a decision is made at the highest levels of US intelligence to direct the investigation away from Iran for whatever reason
  • operative(s) who prepared said fragment.
  • operative(s) who planted it into an evidence bag.

that's it.

None of the Scottish investigators need to know anything about it. Even Thurman who IDed the thing eventually could have been in the dark about it's provenance.

It just takes a handful of US intelligence people and access to the storage area where unexamined evidence is.

There's no evidence to support that it was in fact planted, but it doesn't fall foul of the snowballing numbers of people that would have had to know about it and be complicit in covering it up later either.


There are a very great many weird and wonderful quirks about Lockerbie, and almost none of them make any kind of sense.

Much has been claimed, some of it utterly bogus, and the official investigation is a *********** of ineptitude.
Ambrosia is offline   Quote this post in a PM   Nominate this post for this month's language award Copy a direct link to this post Reply With Quote Back to Top
Reply

International Skeptics Forum » General Topics » Trials and Errors

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:56 AM.
Powered by vBulletin. Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum began as part of the James Randi Education Foundation (JREF). However, the forum now exists as
an independent entity with no affiliation with or endorsement by the JREF, including the section in reference to "JREF" topics.

Disclaimer: Messages posted in the Forum are solely the opinion of their authors.