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Old 22nd November 2021, 09:06 PM   #2761
Skeptic Ginger
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From the link I posted:
Quote:
The emails, uncovered in a Freedom of Information Request by the US-based White Coat Waste Project, suggest that viral DNA from “bats and other high-risk species” were sent to Wuhan between June 2017 to May 2019.
Kind of hard to say you are going to do something 2 years after you propose to do it.

We need to see the actual emails.

Last edited by Skeptic Ginger; 22nd November 2021 at 09:11 PM.
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Old 22nd November 2021, 09:18 PM   #2762
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Get over it. It's not a CT, I'm not developing a conspiracy.

It has nothing to do with some secret discovery. Good grief!

Daszak and crew are searching out SARS like coronaviruses. It is their stated mission, published, in print! The emails are evidence that search included specific bat species in Laos caves which he then shipped to the WIV: also in print in the emails! Documented, you know that little thing that supports evidence based conclusions.

But now Echohealth Alliance is claiming the email only said they were going to collect those samples and that they never did so.

This story needs to ripen a bit. I'm waiting to see the actual emails.

Your claim is that they had found BANAL-52, but the researchers who found it are not affiliated with EcoHealth as far as I know.
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Old 22nd November 2021, 09:47 PM   #2763
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Excuse me while I think out loud.

I remember that EcoHealth Alliance doesn't do the work directly.

From 2018 this was an overview of the broader plan: Bat Research Networks and Viral Surveillance: Gaps and Opportunities in Western Asia
Quote:
To fulfil this regional gap, EcoHealth Alliance (EHA), a global non-profit organization dedicated to protecting wildlife and public health, formed the Western Asia Bat Research Network (WAB-Net, “wah-bee-net”) in collaboration with key regional stakeholders in Western Asia in 2018.
Quote:
WAB-Net aims to: conduct on-the-ground research to bring together regional experts from a variety of disciplines (e.g., bat ecologists, conservationists, virologists, public health officials); strengthen scientific capacity via research exchanges, data sharing platforms, in-region laboratory testing, and annual workshops; and promote the development and leadership of local scientists and officials.
So maybe for 2+ years the WAB-Net didn't get around to looking for CoVs in bats in Laos caves even though looking specifically for bat CoVs is mentioned multiple times in the document.

The WIV isn't mentioned in the document but references to utilizing experts including those in other countries is mentioned numerous times in the plan.

Daszak is on the Scientific Advisory Board that was/is to oversee the WAB-Net.
Quote:
Additionally, WAB-Net has formed an initial Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) to help guide and oversee the network, comprised of a group of global experts with backgrounds in bat ecology and conservation, virology and laboratory diagnostics, and wildlife disease ecology. The SAB was formed to review proposed scientific activities, provide expertise during annual data sharing and capacity building workshops, monitor the network’s growth and communication, and help liaise with regional and global stakeholders.
Kind of hard to believe the emails weren't talking about work already done, though that is possible. Whether the work was done might depend on the dates on the emails and the wording.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 06:51 AM   #2764
W.D.Clinger
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With highlighting as in the original:
Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Again, where is the source and why has it not been found in 2 years? Yes there is a lot of territory to search. But it would not have been the immaculate infection. There should be some semblance of an outbreak on the way to Wuhan. That is epidemiology 101.
Upon wondering whether that highlighted claim would be made by anyone who had actually passed Epidemiology 101, I looked up the curriculum recommended for that course by the Faculty Development Program of the Association for Prevention Teaching and Research (APTR) and the Association of American Colleges and Universities (AAC&U).

Epidemiology 101 is
Quote:
An introductory course illustrating the scientific method and designed to fulfill a science requirement, including the option for an "epidemiology laboratory," integrating such skills as quantitative thinking, inquiry and analysis, and teamwork.
According to APTR and AAC&U, the course is designed to have no prerequisites at all. One of the most popular textbooks for that course is said to be "Perfect for those with no prior familiarity with health-related fields or statistics".

So yes, it is plausible that someone who has passed that course would make the claim highlighted by Skeptic Ginger. I'm not sure we should give much weight to that, because it is also plausible that such people had "no prior familiarity with health-related fields or statistics."
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Old 23rd November 2021, 07:20 AM   #2765
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Excuse me while I think out loud.

I remember that EcoHealth Alliance doesn't do the work directly.

From 2018 this was an overview of the broader plan: Bat Research Networks and Viral Surveillance: Gaps and Opportunities in Western Asia



So maybe for 2+ years the WAB-Net didn't get around to looking for CoVs in bats in Laos caves even though looking specifically for bat CoVs is mentioned multiple times in the document.

The WIV isn't mentioned in the document but references to utilizing experts including those in other countries is mentioned numerous times in the plan.

Daszak is on the Scientific Advisory Board that was/is to oversee the WAB-Net.


Kind of hard to believe the emails weren't talking about work already done, though that is possible. Whether the work was done might depend on the dates on the emails and the wording.
How about this a Toursist came from Laos to Wuhan urinated and the Urine was washed into an underground cave, where bats live since the limestone Wuhan is built on, allows this to happen.
Then a Bat is infected that has another Covid Virus infecting it, the Laos Virus Mutates into Covid 19, and then the bat goes out to feed over a wet Market.
It Urinates on Patient Number one and starts a world wide pandemic?
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Old 23rd November 2021, 12:11 PM   #2766
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Again, where is the source and why has it not been found in 2 years? Yes there is a lot of territory to search. But it would not have been the immaculate infection. There should be some semblance of an outbreak on the way to Wuhan. That is epidemiology 101..
Questions ignorant of "epidemiology 101" or the contents of this thread. No one expects to find the source of a spillover event 100% of the time or within just 2 years. It took 15 years to find the source of SARS as pointed out several times in this thread. If we never find the animal reservoir for SARS-CoV-2, that is not evidence against zoonotic origin or for a lab leak.

The most likely pathway is from bats to an intermediate host to humans and then popping up in Wuhan. That means we need to sample all the mammals around the bat caves including humans and then analyze these samples. Probably ditto for Wuhan. There no reports of thousands of people collecting hundreds of thousands of samples.

Last edited by Reality Check; 23rd November 2021 at 12:14 PM.
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Old 23rd November 2021, 12:27 PM   #2767
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
But now Echohealth Alliance is claiming the email only said they were going to collect those samples and that they never did so.

This story needs to ripen a bit. I'm waiting to see the actual emails.
It is a pity she did not wait for the actual emails before spreading the tabloid rumor that Laotian bat samples were sent to Wuhan.
The EcoHealth Alliance would know exactly what was in the emails because they wrote them!
https://twitter.com/EcoHealthNYC
"The emails between EcoHealth Alliance and the NIH cited by Matt Ridley do not show, as he claims, that we were sampling bats in Laos and sending the results to Wuhan."
"It is true that EcoHealth Alliance requested permission from the NIH to conduct work in Southeast Asian countries, including Laos, and that the NIH did grant permission to do such work."
"However, we considered it a higher priority to continue our focus on China, and no work was ever conducted in Laos as a part of this collaborative research project."

This emphasizes a danger of relying on tabloids. More reputable or competent news sources would do fact checking rather than blindly reporting what Mat Ridley said. They would read the emails. They would contact the EcoHealth Alliance and the NIH. They would ask contacts in Laos whether the EcoHealth Alliance was active there.
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Old 1st December 2021, 03:14 AM   #2768
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For me, the new variant blows apart claims that viruses like SARS-CoV2 need a long time to mutate such impressive transmissability.

Link

In my opinion, it is nice to see Andersen back on Twitter.
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Old 1st December 2021, 01:19 PM   #2769
pgwenthold
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NIH Director Francis Collins has made a statement

https://twitter.com/i/events/1465787805309685763

No, COVID has nothing to do with the coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute.
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Old 2nd December 2021, 05:53 PM   #2770
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Origins of Covid

I looked and hadn’t seen this one here. An Arizona researcher thinks that he found “not patient zero” at the wet market.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news...ey/8721978002/


Quote:
The female seafood vendor identified in the paper, Wei Guixian, became ill on Dec. 10 and was likely infected via respiratory transmission from an animal host, Worobey said. His original article said Dec. 11.

"The seafood vendor got sick on Dec 10 not 11," Worobey wrote in an email this week. "This will be corrected in the print version of the paper. I only pinned this down after the early release version was posted."


He noted that his research does not confirm that Guixian was ‘patient zero’ of the pandemic — that is, the very first case of COVID-19 ever in a human — but rather that she is the first known case researchers can identify, he said.

Since only about 7% of those infected with the novel coronavirus end up in the hospital as the vendor did, it’s unlikely she was the very first case, he said, although she may have been among the very first.

Last edited by carlitos; 2nd December 2021 at 05:57 PM.
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