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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 8th September 2022, 06:27 PM   #361
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Looks like Ukraine is at the outskirts of Kup'yansk meaning they'll be able to cut of direct supply to Izium.
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:39 PM   #362
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
Interesting theory on why Ukraine telegraphed their offensive towards Kherson:
There's an old distinction between secret plots and open plots. This looked like an open plot pretty much all along. Even IF Putin knew the Kherson stuff was a trap (no guarantee of that despite how obvious it was that at least some serious plotting was going on), he'd already put himself into a position where he was nigh forced to walk right into the trap.

Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Eh, I'm not sure the NYT is a good source on living conditions and mindsets in Russia.
I'm frequently not convinced that the NYT is a particularly good or comprehensive source on mindsets in the US. There are far worse, though, and I'd take it over the state controlled media of Russia most of the time.

In this particular case, I don't see anything particularly implausible, though, much as normal caveats apply.

Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
Looks like Ukraine is at the outskirts of Kup'yansk meaning they'll be able to cut of direct supply to Izium.
Supposedly, Ukraine's already started to disable rail lines there.

Elsewhere, looks like Ukraine's still making progress on the other fronts, though that progress is being very overshadowed. Another highly fortified village a little north of Kherson has been liberated, for example. That next line of defense is already crumbling, in other words.

Oh, and forces from Izyum attacked south again, unsuccessfully, despite being about to be cut off. Probably because the Russian leaders there aren't allowed much, if any, initiative. If the guy in charge of the region really was captured, we can probably expect even more insane tactical moves.
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:50 PM   #363
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
But that can't be right. Clearly it's another masterful feint which will allow glorious Russia to win all the Ukraine.
It was all planned:
https://mobile.twitter.com/wartransl...C-5dP9rcIrAAAA
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:11 PM   #364
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
There are claims now that the captured Lt. Colonel is actually at Colonel General. I'm looking at images of both - it seems plausible.

Here's a Reddit thread that makes the claim, its got a photo of the General in dress uniform. He's got a mole on his left cheek below the level of the lips, and you can also see the shape of his ear very well:

That Lt Col captured yesterday was actually Colonel General Sichovy, commander of the West Group. Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast are now without an overall commander

Here' a Yahoo article with a still from the video I linked to yesterday. I think it really is the same guy. The mole (both size and location), the shape of the ear.

https://www.yahoo.com/now/ukrainian-...175100801.html


Sometime yesterday.
General to his men: "I'm going to see what's going on, don't do anything until I get back."
(Never comes back.)
Men to themselves "Well, he said not to do anything...".
Others are pointing to the differences. Hairline, chin etc. And the general does seem to wear his mole slightly higher up
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Old 8th September 2022, 11:00 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
That any Russian offical would publically do this is a big deal.
Yup, from the previous part of this thread...




Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
I think he wasn't. But he's lost his grip and made bad decisions, possibly because people don't dare to give him bad news. He is now being a dumbass. Hopefully it's terminal for him as a strongman and as a person. I still think he has a greater than 50% chance of not being deposed as a result of his invasion, but he's a lot weaker and making himself weaker with his purges.
I think it's about 50-50 now.
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Old 9th September 2022, 12:18 AM   #366
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If this Guardian article is accurate then the size of the Ukrainian force involved in effecting the breakthrough near Kharkiv is surprisingly small:

Quote:
According to one Russian military blogger, as highlighted by Rob Lee, a former US marine and military analyst, Ukrainian forces massed a “powerful tank fist” with 15 tanks to break through the occupiers lines.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ttack-strategy
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Old 9th September 2022, 12:44 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If this Guardian article is accurate then the size of the Ukrainian force involved in effecting the breakthrough near Kharkiv is surprisingly small:



https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ttack-strategy
To be clear, that's not the whole force, not by a long shot. Even if we were to trust a quote from a Russian blogger completely, that's just talking about the tip of a spearhead to break through the lines, not everything that followed to secure and take advantage. I'm pretty sure that I've separately seen the number 7,000 popped out for how many Ukrainian troops are involved, but I'm also pretty sure that overall numbers being floated around right now are not to be treated as trustworthy.
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Old 9th September 2022, 03:07 AM   #368
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
ChildlikeEmpress, I'd much rather get your take on this development, than listen to a handful of randos do coffee talk over zoom.

Smolninskoye Municipal Okrug is a tiny district of St. Pete. Their council is probably ten people (I don't know), of which allegedly the majority voted to call for this. No big deal at all even if what "EuroWeekly" reports is true. More interesting is that "news" like that make it half around the planet to get reported by some really outraged parrots on twitter.
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Old 9th September 2022, 03:17 AM   #369
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
If this Guardian article is accurate then the size of the Ukrainian force involved in effecting the breakthrough near Kharkiv is surprisingly small:
The tip of the spear.

Russian bloggers are talking about Ukrainians sending small "sabotage squads" deep behind lines to blow stuff up and generally sow chaos. To the point where they can no longer identify friend or foe.

Ukraine is proving itself shockingly good at this war thing and Russia shockingly bad.
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Old 9th September 2022, 03:22 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
The tip of the spear.

Russian bloggers are talking about Ukrainians sending small "sabotage squads" deep behind lines to blow stuff up and generally sow chaos. To the point where they can no longer identify friend or foe.

Ukraine is proving itself shockingly good at this war thing and Russia shockingly bad.
Nononononono you misunderstand, the Russians are retiring in good order and brilliantly luring the Ukrainians into overextending their lines of supply and communications.
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Old 9th September 2022, 03:24 AM   #371
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Smolninskoye Municipal Okrug is a tiny district of St. Pete. Their council is probably ten people (I don't know), of which allegedly the majority voted to call for this. No big deal at all even if what "EuroWeekly" reports is true. More interesting is that "news" like that make it half around the planet to get reported by some really outraged parrots on twitter.
Some interesting statistics on that Wiki page. The population was 90k in the 2002 census but only 76k in the 2010 census. I hope this is down to redrawing municipal boundaries rather than depopulation.
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Old 9th September 2022, 03:34 AM   #372
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Some interesting statistics on that Wiki page. The population was 90k in the 2002 census but only 76k in the 2010 census. I hope this is down to redrawing municipal boundaries rather than depopulation.

On the Russian-language WikiPedia site (please don't call it "wiki", "wiki" is simply the type of software WikiPedia uses. Pet peeve of mine) you can see that it rose again to around 80K in 2015 and then in recent years sank to now only 74K. No idea about the reasons.
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Old 9th September 2022, 03:34 AM   #373
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
I heard the same claim about Saddam regarding the first Gulf war, that it was such a humiliating defeat that surely his regime would collapse.

It did not, and I fear that defeat in Ukraine will not lead to Putin's downfall either.

One of the seeming paradoxes of dictatorships is that economic hardship for the country can actually help keep them in power, and prosperity can make their downfall easier. At first glance this seems wrong, but basically what happens is that organizing an opposition that can threaten the regime requires the accumulation of distribution of a significant amount of wealth to rally people to the cause. When there's no money to spare, nobody can challenge the dictator's power.
You may be right but the circumstances are not exactly the same. It depends on the people around him. Putin has made a lot of his cronies very rich but they are currently undergoing hardship with all their yachts/football teams/foreign properties and money being frozen by the West. Furthermore, there were cracks appearing in his regime with systemic problems in the Russian economy and so on. Putin started this war partly to distract the populace from everything that was going wrong.

It remains to be seen what happens after the Russians lose, but I wouldn't put money on Putin staying in power.
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:05 AM   #374
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Today's clobbing list hasn't yet been published, but the latest post on the Russian MoD's telegram channel is the news that the monument for the fallen soldiers of WWII at Saur-Mogila has been restored "in 90 days" by "the Russian Defence Ministry's Military Construction Complex and Russian Military-Historical Society".

I remember the destruction of it by the Ukrainian Nazis (and no, not all Ukrainians are Nazis, but those who destroyed the monument were) in 2014 as one of the most heinous acts of those early post-putsch days. The most heinous was and is for me the murder of the anti-Maidan people in the Union building in Odessa.

Includes a short video of the newly-erected monument:

https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4035
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:10 AM   #375
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Today's clobbing list hasn't yet been published, but the latest post on the Russian MoD's telegram channel is the news that the moment for the fallen soldiers of WWII at Saur-Mogila has been restored "in 90 days" by "the Russian Defence Ministry's Military Construction Complex and Russian Military-Historical Society".
I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to say, but is it that some soviet monument will be restored in 90 days?

I'm glad they are finding stuff to keep themselves busy with.
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:16 AM   #376
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Just saw that there is one block in stone saying "1941 1945" and on the other side is one saying "2014 2022". They know it's over, and I read some interesting opinion of why those "offensives" happen now. It's safer for the comedians in Kiev that those Testosteron-laden, deeply brainwashed young lads are sent to the meat grinder than let them stay alive. Cruel, but likely true.
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:17 AM   #377
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
... by "the Russian Defence Ministry's Military Construction Complex and Russian Military-Historical Society".
No one's going to remember such a long name for such an obscure group. Just write "by the Ruscists" next time 🙂
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:17 AM   #378
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
I'm not entirely sure what you are trying to say, but is it that some soviet monument will be restored in 90 days?

I'm glad they are finding stuff to keep themselves busy with.

A very prominent monument for the dead soldiers of WWII was destroyed in 2014 by Ukrainian Nazis and has been rebuilt in the last 90 days.
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:19 AM   #379
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Just saw that there is one block in stone saying "1941 1945" and on the other side is one saying "2014 2022". They know it's over, and I read some interesting opinion of why those "offensives" happen now. It's safer for the comedians in Kiev that those Testosteron-laden, deeply brainwashed young lads are sent to the meat grinder than let them stay alive. Cruel, but likely true.
*Clipped for the textbook on "Projection"*
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:20 AM   #380
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Today's clobbing list hasn't yet been published, but the latest post on the Russian MoD's telegram channel is the news that the monument for the fallen soldiers of WWII at Saur-Mogila has been restored "in 90 days" by "the Russian Defence Ministry's Military Construction Complex and Russian Military-Historical Society".
Slow news day I guess. Not like much happened today.
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:22 AM   #381
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Just saw that there is one block in stone saying "1941 1945" and on the other side is one saying "2014 2022". They know it's over, and I read some interesting opinion of why those "offensives" happen now. It's safer for the comedians in Kiev that those Testosteron-laden, deeply brainwashed young lads are sent to the meat grinder than let them stay alive. Cruel, but likely true.
Yes remind me why it is 1941-1945?

What was USSR doing in 1939-1941?

Or is the Soviet invasion of Poland with its ally in 1939 not considered part important?
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:23 AM   #382
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Quote:
Just saw that there is one block in stone saying "1941 1945" and on the other side is one saying "2014 2022". They know it's over, and I read some interesting opinion of why those "offensives" happen now. It's safer for the comedians in Kiev that those Testosteron-laden, deeply brainwashed young lads are sent to the meat grinder than let them stay alive. Cruel, but likely true.
Again, I can't really make out what is is you're on about. Presumably something about Ukraine being better off if they lay down their arms and let Vlad take over?

Anyway, in more salient news, it looks like Ukraine have pushed all the way into Kupyansk and have maybe secured Izyum. The Russian line has just melted in the north east. Ukraine are now in a position to cut off key supply routes.
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:29 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Yes remind me why it is 1941-1945?

Hitler invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. His Regime ended with total defeat in 1945.
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Old 9th September 2022, 04:55 AM   #384
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:14 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Hitler invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. His Regime ended with total defeat in 1945.
And which country did Hitler invade in 1939, thus triggering the start of WWII, and what was Russia's reaction to that?
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:21 AM   #386
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Hitler invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. His Regime ended with total defeat in 1945.
So what does the 2014 - 2022 bit signify? That the Russian invasion of Ukraine started in 2014 and will end in total defeat in 2022? I think that is optimistic. I think Russia's total defeat will be in 2023.
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:26 AM   #387
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Yes remind me why it is 1941-1945?

What was USSR doing in 1939-1941?
Or 1918-1919?
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:40 AM   #388
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
So what does the 2014 - 2022 bit signify? That the Russian invasion of Ukraine started in 2014 and will end in total defeat in 2022? I think that is optimistic. I think Russia's total defeat will be in 2023.

2014 - 2022 signifies the period where Russia's brother nation Ukraine was completely taken over by forces that sit somewhere across the sea and tried to form it into a weapon against their perceived geopolitical rival.
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:41 AM   #389
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This is hilarious. A successful counter attack in progress, and officials in St Petersburg openly denouncing Putin, and CE has you talking about a stupid statue and stuff from a hundred years ago. Don't fall for it. Stay on target.
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:43 AM   #390
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
2014 - 2022 signifies the period where Russia's brother nation Ukraine was completely taken over by forces that sit somewhere across the sea and tried to form it into a weapon against their perceived geopolitical rival.
Given the current situation, that end date is a bit premature. Tell us more about the Ukrainian counter attack currently in progress
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:43 AM   #391
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
And which country did Hitler invade in 1939, thus triggering the start of WWII, and what was Russia's reaction to that?
Poland, 2 weeks later Russia started invading as well.
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Old 9th September 2022, 05:57 AM   #392
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Given the current situation, that end date is a bit premature. Tell us more about the Ukrainian counter attack currently in progress
There is no counterattack, just a series of Russian feints to lure Ukrainian Nazis into the open so that Russia can continue their perfect policing action....
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:01 AM   #393
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
And which country did Hitler invade in 1939, thus triggering the start of WWII, and what was Russia's reaction to that?
Oh common, these are too easy. In reaction to expected blatant NATO aggression in 10 years time, Russia was forced to invade Poland and help liberate it from it's sovereignty.

Originally Posted by theprestige
This is hilarious. A successful counter attack in progress, and officials in St Petersburg openly denouncing Putin, and CE has you talking about a stupid statue and stuff from a hundred years ago. Don't fall for it. Stay on target.
Indeed.

So when do you guys think Izyum will be liberated? I think they might abandon it today, but it could be tomorrow. Even better would be if the idiot high command decide to defend it at all costs throw the newly arriving reserves into the the chaos - Ukraine could chew those columns up. Given their performance so far, it could be the sort of "no step back" tactic Moscow could order.

Ukraine have played this Kherson\Kharkiv counter perfectly so far. Like a boxer working the body until the guard drops, then going for the head.
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:04 AM   #394
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
Oh common, these are too easy. In reaction to expected blatant NATO aggression in 10 years time, Russia was forced to invade Poland and help liberate it from it's sovereignty.


Indeed.

So when do you guys think Izyum will be liberated? I think they might abandon it today, but it could be tomorrow. Even better would be if the idiot high command decide to defend it at all costs throw the newly arriving reserves into the the chaos - Ukraine could chew those columns up. Given their performance so far, it could be the sort of "no step back" tactic Moscow could order.

Ukraine have played this Kherson\Kharkiv counter perfectly so far. Like a boxer working the body until the guard drops, then going for the head.
A kickboxer might be a better analogy, because I think the knee might come in again.
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:14 AM   #395
eerok
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Quote:
Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces advanced 50km deep into Russian defensive positions north of Izyum on September 8 [...]
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...nt-september-8

Word is that Russian troops are withdrawing to more comfortable positions ... graveyards in Russia.
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:14 AM   #396
Oystein
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
...Russia's brother nation ...
Way to treat a "brother". Reminds me of a short verse that originates with the emnity between rivalling Christian denominations, but fits perfectly here:
Und willst Du nicht mein Bruder sein,
dann schlag' ich Dir die Fresse ein!
(And if you don't want to be my brother,
then I will smash in your face)
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:18 AM   #397
Dave Rogers
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
There is no counterattack, just a series of Russian feints to lure Ukrainian Nazis into the open so that Russia can continue their perfect policing action....
I think it's more subtle than that. There was never an attack on Ukraine, just a special military operation. This is therefore at best a counter-specialmilitaryoperation.

Dave
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:21 AM   #398
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
There is no counterattack, just a series of Russian feints to lure Ukrainian Nazis into the open so that Russia can continue their perfect policing action....
Heh. I remember a couple weeks ago, thinking the Russians were reduced to scrabbling over a few square kilometers adjacent to their initial gains. That their front was becoming eggshell-thin while their positions slowly hollowed out due to mounting losses and profound resupply issues. All this on top of deep and wide corruption and incompetence. That the Ukrainians were very likely and very wisely letting them scrabble and wear themselves out, without Ukraine putting much of its own troops in harm's way. That hopefully Ukraine would, at a time and place of their choosing, gather a decisive force and make a counterattack on what must surely be a Russian army that is already almost spent. And I remember being told that no, this kind of scrabbling is what the Russians do best, and they are inexorably winning this thing, kilometer by kilometer.

---

Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the Russians have done, if anything, to prepare for a breakthrough. It's probably not enough for a platoon of conscripts to creep into a recently shelled-out city block and call it an advance. There's probably things that need to happen behind them, to channel enemy movement and ambush any breakthroughs. Otherwise, it's just a bunch of conscript platoons scattered across the landscape, waiting to be swept aside whenever the Ukrainians are ready. Which apparently, today, they are.
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:23 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by Dave Rogers View Post
I think it's more subtle than that. There was never an attack on Ukraine, just a special military operation. This is therefore at best a counter-specialmilitaryoperation.
Russia needs to come up with a special military counter-operation quick.
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Old 9th September 2022, 06:44 AM   #400
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Russia needs to come up with a special military counter-operation quick.

I hear they’ve already ordered extra keyboards and typewriters.


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