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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 21st September 2022, 10:08 PM   #1761
Wildy
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Trumpism is alive and well in Russia. Narratives don't have to make sense..
The nonsensical narratives that you see in Trumpism were a tactic that came from the Russians, not something they adopted from Trump.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
It is correct that Russia invaded Ukraine, while Ukraine did not invade Russia.

However, Ukraine and its allies did launch an economic war through sanctions in 2014, when essentially the only "crime" Russsia was committing was protecting and helping some Russian speaking minorities in Ukraine.

Article 1 of the UN Charter says:

(https://legal.un.org/repertory/art1.shtml)

while Article 2 says:

(https://legal.un.org/repertory/art2.shtml)

Using economic sanctions is an example of a use of force which is not peaceful, especially when Russia was applying the principle of self-determination, in agreement with Article 1.
Except, and this has been pointed out to you before, self-determination doesn't work the way you think it does. If it did then you wouldn't have spent time trying to weasel out of why the Kurdistan and Catalonian independence referendums don't count, and IIRC you just ignored what happened with Chechnya in the 90's.

In fact the meddling from Russia back in 2014 along with them actually using Russian troops to take control of key buildings in Crimea would be a pretty blatant violation of Art. 2 s. 4, and even if you don't consider that to be valid, the current invasion and annexation talks definitely would be.

I don't really get how your timeline of events occurs. Because you make it seem that one day the West decided that they'd just arbitrarily sanction Russia for no reason despite the fact that it only happened after Russia did stuff first.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Ukraine started an economic war on Russia, and I have serious doubts about the reliability of your source. Your source says:

with no reference given. Wikipedia does have references:

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_C...ferendum_polls).

When you start an economic war on another country, you shouldn't be too surprised when that country fights back.
And if you scroll up to the section immediately before the one you've linked to titled 'Alternative Estimates of Results' you'll find the same claim from the Russian President's Human Rights Council with sources attached.
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Old 21st September 2022, 10:44 PM   #1762
Michel H
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Originally Posted by Wildy View Post
And if you scroll up to the section immediately before the one you've linked to titled 'Alternative Estimates of Results' you'll find the same claim from the Russian President's Human Rights Council with sources attached.
acbytesla's source says
Quote:
Two months later, a leaked report from the Russian president’s Human Rights Council put turnout at only 30 percent, with about half of those voting to join Russia.
Wikipedia says:
Quote:
On 5 May, the Russian President's Human Rights Council posted a report to their site about human rights in Crimea based on interviews with roughly 20 local human rights activists conducted over the course of two and a half days.[141] One member of the council, Yevgeny Bobrov, reported the opinion that the "vast majority of the citizens of Sevastopol voted in favor of unification with Russia in the referendum (50–80%)" and that "in Crimea, various data show that 50–60% voted for unification with Russia, with a turnout of 30–50%".[142] On 7 May the Council stated that the report was not an official position of the Council.[143]
There is an obvious contradiction.
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Old 21st September 2022, 11:40 PM   #1763
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
acbytesla's source says

Wikipedia says:

There is an obvious contradiction.
"roughly 20". Words fail me.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 12:56 AM   #1764
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
"roughly 20". Words fail me.
I'm also somewhat reminded of a move by Republicans not all that long ago. Interview a bunch of "concerned parents/citizens" who just happen to all be employed by the Republican Party without noting that fact. Then use that to justify and amplify bigotry. Something similar might not have happened there, but it's entirely plausible. It should be a given, though, that claims of opinions of supposed support made by military occupiers who have a rich history of actively spreading disinformation to serve their designs shouldn't be trusted very much at all, let alone the unquestioning support that certain groups seem to offer them.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 01:07 AM   #1765
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
acbytesla's source says

Wikipedia says:

There is an obvious contradiction.
Your own quote says '30-50% turnout', so a claim of 30% is justified. It's not the whole picture, but it's also not wrong.
It also says the pro-Russia vote was '50-60%', so again, a claim of 'about half' is justified.
The only contradiction is that you continue to post claims that are disproved by your own sources.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 01:28 AM   #1766
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
It is correct that Russia invaded Ukraine, while Ukraine did not invade Russia.

However, Ukraine and its allies did launch an economic war through sanctions in 2014, when essentially the only "crime" Russsia was committing was protecting and helping some Russian speaking minorities in Ukraine.

Article 1 of the UN Charter says:

(https://legal.un.org/repertory/art1.shtml)

while Article 2 says:

(https://legal.un.org/repertory/art2.shtml)

Using economic sanctions is an example of a use of force which is not peaceful, especially when Russia was applying the principle of self-determination, in agreement with Article 1.
You have genocidal blood on your hands up to your elbows. Do you even read the what you post? If you weren't a genocide apologist, it would be funny.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 01:33 AM   #1767
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
That wasn't a real invasion. No one was killed (to my knowledge), and it was welcomed by the local population.
You know Ukraine is going to expel the occupation force right? American tanks driven by Ukrainians attack. Russia will run and no one involved on either side will ever know your silly little idea even existed. You'll wail and gnash your teeth, we'll laugh, the Orcs will run.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 01:37 AM   #1768
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Originally Posted by Cosmic Yak View Post
Your own quote says '30-50% turnout', so a claim of 30% is justified. It's not the whole picture, but it's also not wrong.
It also says the pro-Russia vote was '50-60%', so again, a claim of 'about half' is justified.
The only contradiction is that you continue to post claims that are disproved by your own sources.
When you compare the two texts, it seems obvious that the data used by the Brookings Institution were manipulated to make the text more anti-Russian.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 01:40 AM   #1769
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
When you compare the two texts, it seems obvious that the data used by the Brookings Institution were manipulated to make the text more anti-Russian.
To a Russian propagandist perhaps but not to anyone who matters.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 03:42 AM   #1770
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So, the nominal "denazification" of Ukraine has just gone into apparent reverse, leaving the nationalists fuming.

In exchange for the detested (by both sides) Medvedchuk a load of the Azov fighters, including a commander have been sent back to Ukraine. Queue rejoicing in Kyiv and wailing and gnashing of teeth in Russia. Azov have been built up in Russians minds as basically the worst evil Nazi scum who deserved nothing but death.

Yet now they are sent back to a hero's welcome in Ukraine, while some oligarch fop is installed into luxury apartments in Moscow. There is a lot of talk about how many "heroes" had to to spill Russian blood to capture these "Azov scum" and now, on the day of mobilisation, it was apparently all for nothing.

Gerkin is real mad, bro. Does everything but name Putin (who must of signed off this deal). Of course he just blames the King's bad advisors, but he is skirting very close:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...60832744079360


It does all seem very strange to me. When Medvedchuk was originally captured Putin seemed to pretty much shrug. Now he's swapping their most prized prisoners for him (ok, there were 50 other Russian soldiers going back, but whatever). What has changed?
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Old 22nd September 2022, 03:47 AM   #1771
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This thread is good summary of why this is so bad for the Kremlin

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...41229754286080

Quote:
One of the main aims of denazification was the elimination of Azov, and the fall of Mariupol and their capture was the main triumph of the war to date. Their trial and execution were supposed to be the culmination of the "liberation" of Ukraine. 3/
Quote:
And then suddenly, when the cages for the tribunal were ready, they are swapped for the father of Putin's goddaughter. For Russian nationalists, this is akin to the USSR capturing General Rommel along with an SS division in 1942 and swapping them for Stalin's son. 4/
Though Paulus would clearly work better than Rommel in this analogy, as that actually happened. And Medvedchuk is just some lackey, not Putin's son. Making this much worse.

Still, what is going on here? Why has Putin done this?

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Old 22nd September 2022, 03:53 AM   #1772
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
It does all seem very strange to me. When Medvedchuk was originally captured Putin seemed to pretty much shrug. Now he's swapping their most prized prisoners for him (ok, there were 50 other Russian soldiers going back, but whatever). What has changed?
I suspect the rumours that those "50 other Russian soldiers" include a general or two might be correct.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 04:07 AM   #1773
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
So, the nominal "denazification" of Ukraine has just gone into apparent reverse, leaving the nationalists fuming.

In exchange for the detested (by both sides) Medvedchuk a load of the Azov fighters, including a commander have been sent back to Ukraine. Queue rejoicing in Kyiv and wailing and gnashing of teeth in Russia. Azov have been built up in Russians minds as basically the worst evil Nazi scum who deserved nothing but death.

Yet now they are sent back to a hero's welcome in Ukraine, while some oligarch fop is installed into luxury apartments in Moscow. There is a lot of talk about how many "heroes" had to to spill Russian blood to capture these "Azov scum" and now, on the day of mobilisation, it was apparently all for nothing.

Gerkin is real mad, bro. Does everything but name Putin (who must of signed off this deal). Of course he just blames the King's bad advisors, but he is skirting very close:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...60832744079360


It does all seem very strange to me. When Medvedchuk was originally captured Putin seemed to pretty much shrug. Now he's swapping their most prized prisoners for him (ok, there were 50 other Russian soldiers going back, but whatever). What has changed?

I was wondering about that too. The best I could come up with is that the exchange was an attempt at a face-saving way of not executing the captured foreign fighters, because of concerns that that would harden public opinion in the West. And that the Azov POWs were a sticking point.

But that doesn't really make much sense.


Putin also seems to be letting his subordinates make power moves*, which is not healthy. So he's running out of options. Maybe thinking a random shaking of the table will help his cards look better?


*see this.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/st...07394585083904

Quote:
Prigozhin continues leaking videos of him in commander-in-chief role (on this one, doing that 3 am meeting your commanders thing.
Wagnerites tell me they'd vote for him over Putin any time, and it seems to me he smells blood.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 04:41 AM   #1774
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
That wasn't a real invasion. No one was killed (to my knowledge), and it was welcomed by the local population.
Was it? Do you have anything to back that up?
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Old 22nd September 2022, 05:01 AM   #1775
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Today's MoD Russia report says another HIMARS launcher was destroyed in Monachinovka (Kharkov region). That makes it (claimed) 10 out of 16 if I counted correctly.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 05:08 AM   #1776
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Today's MoD Russia report says another HIMARS launcher was destroyed in Monachinovka (Kharkov region). That makes it (claimed) 10 out of 16 if I counted correctly.
It's not your arithmetic we don't trust.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 05:09 AM   #1777
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
It is correct that Russia invaded Ukraine, while Ukraine did not invade Russia.

However, Ukraine and its allies did launch an economic war through sanctions in 2014, when essentially the only "crime" Russsia was committing was protecting and helping some Russian speaking minorities in Ukraine.

Article 1 of the UN Charter says:

(https://legal.un.org/repertory/art1.shtml)

while Article 2 says:

(https://legal.un.org/repertory/art2.shtml)

Using economic sanctions is an example of a use of force which is not peaceful, especially when Russia was applying the principle of self-determination, in agreement with Article 1.
Cock and bull.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 05:19 AM   #1778
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
"roughly 20". Words fail me.
"Roughly" probably describes how those "interviews" were conducted.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 05:40 AM   #1779
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Mod WarningA reminder that the topic of discussion of this thread is the actual invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Hopefully this reminder will mean we'll not have to go back and take further moderation action but if it is ignored we will do.
Responding to this mod box in thread will be off topic Posted By:Darat
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Old 22nd September 2022, 06:20 AM   #1780
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
It does all seem very strange to me. When Medvedchuk was originally captured Putin seemed to pretty much shrug. Now he's swapping their most prized prisoners for him (ok, there were 50 other Russian soldiers going back, but whatever). What has changed?

Maybe Medvedchuk (or someone close to him) has something on Putin (that is, something more than Putin's obvious mind-boggling corruption).
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Old 22nd September 2022, 06:33 AM   #1781
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
When you compare the two texts, it seems obvious that the data used by the Brookings Institution were manipulated to make the text more anti-Russian.

If you take the high end of those numbers: 50% turnout and 60% in favor, that adds up to 30% of the total population voting for it.

Seems accurate enough to me, and hardly anything close to what I’d call overwhelming support.


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Old 22nd September 2022, 06:49 AM   #1782
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Here's a really nice analysis on Putin's mobilization and the internal political implications:
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Two key points. First, criticism from both the pro- and anti-war factions within Russian media isn't a sign of regime weakness, it's a deliberate method the regime uses to sound out popular response. Second, the Russian population is largely apathetic to politics, and this is also by design. But it makes mobilization very difficult to achieve.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 07:28 AM   #1783
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
Maybe Medvedchuk (or someone close to him) has something on Putin (that is, something more than Putin's obvious mind-boggling corruption).
Though presumably that could have been extracted from Medvedchuk one way or the other anyway. Anyway, he wouldn't care about some disgraced oligarch bleating about Putin's alleged crimes.

I suspect it's more to do with Medvedchuk's allies applying whatever pressure they can. Or maybe Putin did feel duty bound to save him.

As with everything in Russia, who knows?
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Old 22nd September 2022, 07:36 AM   #1784
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
Though presumably that could have been extracted from Medvedchuk one way or the other anyway. Anyway, he wouldn't care about some disgraced oligarch bleating about Putin's alleged crimes.

I suspect it's more to do with Medvedchuk's allies applying whatever pressure they can. Or maybe Putin did feel duty bound to save him.

As with everything in Russia, who knows?
Putin's original plan seems to have been to install Medvedchuk as PM of Ukraine after the decapitation raid took care of Zelensky, then Medvedchuk would sign off on a peace treaty/surrender that would give Russia everything it wanted, leaving Ukraine as a demilitarized landlocked rump state that would be prohibited from joining NATO or the EU. I wonder if he still has plan to put Medvedchuk in charge or this or that part of Ukraine. Such plans have no hope of success, but Putin still seems pretty delusional in that regard.

The referendums in the temporarily-occupied areas will allow children as young as 13 to vote if accompanied by a parent. This seems to be done as a means to inflate the vote count and assumes that most of the pro-Ukrainian people won't vote (mostly because they are dead or have left the area). So let the kids of the remaining families vote to hide what would otherwise be embarrassingly low numbers.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 08:24 AM   #1785
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Here's a really nice analysis on Putin's mobilization and the internal political implications:
YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE

Two key points. First, criticism from both the pro- and anti-war factions within Russian media isn't a sign of regime weakness, it's a deliberate method the regime uses to sound out popular response. Second, the Russian population is largely apathetic to politics, and this is also by design. But it makes mobilization very difficult to achieve.
I've been following Vexler's analysis of Russian politics for a while, very informative and consistent with what I had gathered over the years by talking with various Russians living in or visiting Switzerland (from members of the USSR mission to various UN organisations in the 70s to physicians visiting GVA university hospital in 2013).

His videos about the evolution of Russian propaganda is spot on.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 09:03 AM   #1786
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
It is correct that Russia invaded Ukraine, while Ukraine did not invade Russia.

However, Ukraine and its allies did launch an economic war through sanctions in 2014, when essentially the only "crime" Russsia was committing was protecting and helping some Russian speaking minorities in Ukraine.
The invaded Ukrainian territory. This is illegal. Period, end of story. They didn't do it to protect anyone they did it to commit ethnic cleansing and kill, oppress or eject Ukrainians.

Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
Using economic sanctions is an example of a use of force which is not peaceful, especially when Russia was applying the principle of self-determination,
Self determination would dictate that country can be forced to trade with another nation against it's will. Your notion that the west should be forced to trade with Russia is a blatant violation of self determination.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 09:12 AM   #1787
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
acbytesla's source says

Wikipedia says:

There is an obvious contradiction.
The "referendum" is irrelevant. You can't hold a meaningful referendum in occupied territory. As soon as Russia invaded a real referendum became impossible, so all we have is the fact that Russia signed and violated a treaty to respect Ukrainian borders.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 09:15 AM   #1788
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Originally Posted by Michel H View Post
When you compare the two texts, it seems obvious that the data used by the Brookings Institution were manipulated to make the text more anti-Russian.
The Bookings institute has no reason to manipulate anything where as Russia routinely manipulates poling and voting for propaganda reasons. Given the respective track records and bias It seems far more likely that the Russian data was manipulated.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 09:22 AM   #1789
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Today's MoD Russia report says another HIMARS launcher was destroyed in Monachinovka (Kharkov region). That makes it (claimed) 10 out of 16 if I counted correctly.
Yeah, but no rational person believes Russian claims. Remember the logging truck they tried to say in was a HIMARS? Russian intelligence ****, they can't find any meaningful military target and their artillery is to worn out to hit it even if they could find it. IOW they have no idea what they are shooting at (other than civilians) and couldn't hit it anyway, this is why a measly 16 HIMARS have completely devastated Russian supplies.

If 16 HIMARS can do this what would Russia do against the 500 Poland is buying?
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Old 22nd September 2022, 09:45 AM   #1790
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
If 16 HIMARS can do this what would Russia do against the 500 Poland is buying?
Tease.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 09:46 AM   #1791
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
The "referendum" is irrelevant. You can't hold a meaningful referendum in occupied territory. As soon as Russia invaded a real referendum became impossible, so all we have is the fact that Russia signed and violated a treaty to respect Ukrainian borders.
Pretty much this.

I don't think anybody (credible) in the West has ever flatly denied there might be more pro-Russian sentiment in Sevastopol than other areas of Ukraine. It's just that a referendum under occupation is completely illegitimate.

Even if referenda in the occupied regions were well executed, they wouldn't be legitimate... and let's face it, they haven't been, and won't be well executed, either. There is no pro-self-determination argument that can be credibly made regarding Russia's annexation of Crimea or other potential areas. Any argument made would likely be either a mistake, or an outright lie.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 11:03 AM   #1792
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Another one bites the dust!

Quote:
Russian newspaper Izvestia, citing an unnamed source, reported that Gerashchenko "fell from a great height, flying (down) several flights of stairs."
At this rate, it's going to be tricky picking out which ones actually are accidents! I mean, he was 72 and could have misstepped.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 11:34 AM   #1793
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More trolling by @DefenseU on Twitter

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1572947574016933888

Quote:
Defense of Ukraine
@DefenceU
Normal
3%

Ukraine government organization
We continue to rely on russia for the provision of weapons while we await those that will be provided as part of the Lend-Lease program.
201.7K views
0:13 / 0:53
2:55 PM · Sep 22, 2022
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The embedded video is well done
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Old 22nd September 2022, 11:40 AM   #1794
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
More trolling by @DefenseU on Twitter

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1572947574016933888

The embedded video is well done
That was outstanding.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 11:45 AM   #1795
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
Another one bites the dust!



At this rate, it's going to be tricky picking out which ones actually are accidents! I mean, he was 72 and could have misstepped.
He must have toppled over the banister if (a) he fell from a great height, and (b) fell down several flights. (How do you do that unless you hit the wall at the bottom of the first flight and then change direction to topple down the next flight, and so on and so forth until he hit the final flight.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 11:51 AM   #1796
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I see him diving down an old-fashioned open stairwell. By accident, of course.
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Old 22nd September 2022, 11:57 AM   #1797
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
Another one bites the dust!



At this rate, it's going to be tricky picking out which ones actually are accidents! I mean, he was 72 and could have misstepped.
Who is Gerashchenko?
Link?
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Old 22nd September 2022, 12:02 PM   #1798
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Who is Gerashchenko?
Link?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...mystery_deaths


This month

Ravil Maganov Chairman of Russia's Lukoil oil giant and outspoken Putin critic.[5] 1 September 2022 Russia Moscow, below a Kremlin Hospital's window[15] Reportedly hospitalised for heart problems and depression, then "fell out of a window".[15]

Ivan Pechorin Aviation Director of the Russian Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (KRDV) 10 September 2022[16][17] Russia Washed up, Beregovoe, 160.93 Kilometers (100 miles) from Vladivostok, far east Drowned at Cape Ignatyev, Vladivostok, body found in Beregovoe two days later.[17]
Fell from his boat[18]

Vladimir Nikolayevich Sungorkin Editor-in-chief of the Russian state newspaper, Komsomolskaya Pravda 14 September 2022[19] Russia Village of Roshchino, Khabarovsk Krai, far east Reportedly suffered a stroke and suffocated while on the way to lunch.[19]


Anatoly Gerashchenko Former rector of Russia’s Moscow Aviation Institute 21 September 2022[20][21] Russia Moscow[20][21] Fell down a flight of stairs inside the institute[20][21]
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Old 22nd September 2022, 12:03 PM   #1799
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Originally Posted by Oystein View Post
Who is Gerashchenko?
Link?
I can't remember which I quoted from directly. Just Google "russian aviation expert" and take any of the links which pop up in the News. I just tried, and there're lots.

ETA: ninja'd by jimbob
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Old 22nd September 2022, 12:26 PM   #1800
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There is a lot of video already of people getting mobilized, Large lines getting onto buses and airplanes. They seem to be moving fast.

There is some speculation that Putin may aim for a much larger number. Announce 300k. Recruit a fair amount from Moscow, St. Petersburg and other large cities, but recruit far more from rural areas.

The rural areas have less ability to take back control - so Putin will screw them, while pulling fewer people from the bigger cities where an uprising could have real national impact. They may be too spread out and (justifiably) paranoid about long distance communication to realize that he's pulling more recruits than claimed.



I was chatting with some Russian rando on reddit yesterday, after I posted a thing claiming that Iranian women appear to have more balls than Russian men; i.e. the relative lack of protest in Russia.

He correctly pointed out the very severe repercussions faced by protesters in Russia. If they protest, lives are destroyed, people die. Like I say, he wasn't wrong.

But here's what I pointed out:
Over the next few months or years, a whole lot of Russian people are going to get killed. That's inescapable now. But....

Russia as a nation a choice.
  1. Those people can die in protests across the country fighting for a better nation, or
  2. They can die in the mud and trenches of Ukraine, killed by people fighting to protect their own freedom. These Russians would die while trying to kill innocent people. They would die in the service of a tyrant fighting a war based on lies and conspiracies.
But either way, a whole lot of Russians are going to die. They just need to figure out how.

Last edited by crescent; 22nd September 2022 at 12:27 PM.
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