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Tags putin , russia , Russia-Ukraine war , ukraine , Zelensky

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Old 7th September 2022, 02:07 PM   #281
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Originally Posted by Drewbot View Post
This is a very cryptic tweet from @DefenseU

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/...v_EgZKq-WmLYGw



Could mean they are going to blow a bridge, or possibly are going to land some troops in Crimea to further split the Russian defenders.
Most likely missiles attack. Like with that airbase.
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Old 7th September 2022, 02:10 PM   #282
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
It also does not match past behavior in places like Chechnya. Instead they repeatedly try to make armor a big part of urban warfare by coming up with crap like the "Terminator" BMPT.
I don't think that's quite fair. They tried to use armor the first time in Chechnya, but their tanks were the wrong tool for the job. The second time, they just didn't bother with armor at all. Parallel to that, they've also been trying to develop urban-optimized armored fighting vehicles like the Terminator, but those are not in regular production yet, and aren't part of current doctrine.

I expect the Russians would have gone into the cities, if only to secure the rail hubs, but that they would have not committed a lot of armor to those objectives.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, it left behind nascent plans for the next generation of weapons systems, more on par with their western counterparts. So far, none of these "wunderwaffen" have made it into production.
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Old 7th September 2022, 02:41 PM   #283
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I like this guys take on how and why things are progressing in Ukraines favor...
Kind of like, slow and steady wins the race.
Quote:
Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine
https://realcontextnews.com/ukrainia...ar-on-ukraine/
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Old 7th September 2022, 02:45 PM   #284
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So I look at twitter and see accounts claiming that Ukraine has made wildly successful advances in the Kherson Oblast - crazy, unrealistic claims.

Then I find out that those are the pro-Russian accounts.

A pro-Russian account called WarGonzo is claiming that the Ukrainian Army bypassed the town of Shevchenkove and is now shelling the rail-hub town of Kupiansk as they approach the town.

Reaching Shevchenkove would be an at-least 30km advance in two days, probably further since the tankies are claiming that the Ukr Army is moving east beyond the town.

If Ukraine can cut Kupiansk off from the west side of the Oskil River, then they can isolate the Russian troops there from resupply and lengthen Russian supply lines to the north side of the Donbass front and much of the Kharkiv area was well.

Ukraine really seems to have blown a big hole in the Russian lines.
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Old 7th September 2022, 02:54 PM   #285
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Sounds like great news but I'd like to see independent verification of it.
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Old 7th September 2022, 03:03 PM   #286
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sounds like great news but I'd like to see independent verification of it.
I agree. I only mention it because it is coming from the sorts of sources who normally deny any Ukr success. They're spooked.
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Old 7th September 2022, 03:08 PM   #287
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
I agree. I only mention it because it is coming from the sorts of sources who normally deny any Ukr success. They're spooked.
Could be the ol' double bluff. Claim immense success but when the truth turns out to be less, claim it's effectively zero.
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Old 7th September 2022, 03:16 PM   #288
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The girl won't leave East Germany, either.
Tge term they use in Germany is "Red Sock" for somebody raised in East Germany who longs for the good old days.
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Old 7th September 2022, 03:20 PM   #289
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Originally Posted by trustbutverify View Post
If the old days of East Germany were to return, she'd be in West Germany before delivery of the first bag of cement for the new Berlin wall.
Which is why "Red Socks" have become a source of endless jokes and are stock comedy figures on German tv.
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Old 7th September 2022, 04:09 PM   #290
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I don't think that's quite fair. They tried to use armor the first time in Chechnya, but their tanks were the wrong tool for the job. The second time, they just didn't bother with armor at all. Parallel to that, they've also been trying to develop urban-optimized armored fighting vehicles like the Terminator, but those are not in regular production yet, and aren't part of current doctrine.

I expect the Russians would have gone into the cities, if only to secure the rail hubs, but that they would have not committed a lot of armor to those objectives.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, it left behind nascent plans for the next generation of weapons systems, more on par with their western counterparts. So far, none of these "wunderwaffen" have made it into production.
It is quite fair. Chechnya is why they designed these things because they still want to lead with armor every damn time no matter where they are.

First, they did not plan a siege. They were looking for a decapitation strike which required them to enter the cities right away. They also relied on heavy mechanized units when they entered Afghanistan. The Soviets/Russians have been trying to put the same square peg in the same round hole since 1945.

They had the doctrine for the terminators before they built the later prototypes. Doctrine drove the design. They thought that the real problem with tanks in cities was not being able to aim high up at nearby buildings.

The problem is that tanks just cannot be armored enough to cover themselves from all angles. In cities they need to hang back and only come up when the infantry have cleared the immediate area where the tanks are and fire from the distance. Getting close enough to fire upwards at a higher angle doesn't offer much protection unless the only building you have to worry about is the one you are aiming at. Armor cannot lead the way in cities because of that.

The TUSK packages used on US and Israeli tanks makes more sense. The most useful part is the external intercom connection. The tanks can stayed buttoned up and infantry outside can talk to the crew while looking for threats to the tank. But the tanks still need to hang back a bit and just act as fire support for infantry.
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Old 7th September 2022, 04:20 PM   #291
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
It is quite fair. Chechnya is why they designed these things because they still want to lead with armor every damn time no matter where they are.

First, they did not plan a siege. They were looking for a decapitation strike which required them to enter the cities right away. They also relied on heavy mechanized units when they entered Afghanistan. The Soviets/Russians have been trying to put the same square peg in the same round hole since 1945.

They had the doctrine for the terminators before they built the later prototypes. Doctrine drove the design. They thought that the real problem with tanks in cities was not being able to aim high up at nearby buildings.

The problem is that tanks just cannot be armored enough to cover themselves from all angles. In cities they need to hang back and only come up when the infantry have cleared the immediate area where the tanks are and fire from the distance. Getting close enough to fire upwards at a higher angle doesn't offer much protection unless the only building you have to worry about is the one you are aiming at. Armor cannot lead the way in cities because of that.

The TUSK packages used on US and Israeli tanks makes more sense. The most useful part is the external intercom connection. The tanks can stayed buttoned up and infantry outside can talk to the crew while looking for threats to the tank. But the tanks still need to hang back a bit and just act as fire support for infantry.
That's all very good but glorified intercoms, no matter how fancy, don't look impressive on a parade, nor do they help in a scripted exercise, so what is in it for those doing the procurement?

Next you will be suggesting that the Russian MOO* would have been better off spending money on maintenance and lorries rather than hypersonic missiles and a handful of T-14 tanks


*MOD is obviously a misnomer
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Old 7th September 2022, 05:04 PM   #292
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Originally Posted by Doubt View Post
It is quite fair. Chechnya is why they designed these things because they still want to lead with armor every damn time no matter where they are.

First, they did not plan a siege. They were looking for a decapitation strike which required them to enter the cities right away. They also relied on heavy mechanized units when they entered Afghanistan. The Soviets/Russians have been trying to put the same square peg in the same round hole since 1945.

They had the doctrine for the terminators before they built the later prototypes. Doctrine drove the design. They thought that the real problem with tanks in cities was not being able to aim high up at nearby buildings.

The problem is that tanks just cannot be armored enough to cover themselves from all angles. In cities they need to hang back and only come up when the infantry have cleared the immediate area where the tanks are and fire from the distance. Getting close enough to fire upwards at a higher angle doesn't offer much protection unless the only building you have to worry about is the one you are aiming at. Armor cannot lead the way in cities because of that.

The TUSK packages used on US and Israeli tanks makes more sense. The most useful part is the external intercom connection. The tanks can stayed buttoned up and infantry outside can talk to the crew while looking for threats to the tank. But the tanks still need to hang back a bit and just act as fire support for infantry.
I cannot tell you how much Tank Commanders HATE having to go into Urban Combat.
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Old 7th September 2022, 06:45 PM   #293
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Sounds like great news but I'd like to see independent verification of it.
They have to keep details quiet. Too much information has cost the Ukrainians already. Both sides monitor all news closely for details that will aid an attack.
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Old 7th September 2022, 11:05 PM   #294
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Originally Posted by crescent View Post
So I look at twitter and see accounts claiming that Ukraine has made wildly successful advances in the Kherson Oblast - crazy, unrealistic claims.

Then I find out that those are the pro-Russian accounts.

A pro-Russian account called WarGonzo is claiming that the Ukrainian Army bypassed the town of Shevchenkove and is now shelling the rail-hub town of Kupiansk as they approach the town.

Reaching Shevchenkove would be an at-least 30km advance in two days, probably further since the tankies are claiming that the Ukr Army is moving east beyond the town.

If Ukraine can cut Kupiansk off from the west side of the Oskil River, then they can isolate the Russian troops there from resupply and lengthen Russian supply lines to the north side of the Donbass front and much of the Kharkiv area was well.

Ukraine really seems to have blown a big hole in the Russian lines.
It may be worth remembering that Kupiansk is the major rail hub in that front and that Russia is exceedingly dependent upon rails for their logistics. Neutralize or take Kupiansk and a major part of what Russia's taken will simply be cut off for most supply purposes. Take out the few remaining bridges, too, and we're left with what's pretty much another situation like over at Kherson. A significant chunk of troops and equipment pretty well cut off and ripe for the picking.

Going a little further, Ukrainian infantry are apparently deep enough behind what had been the front lines there that they can ambush Russian MLRS, so... it honestly wouldn't be a surprise if we've got an actual breakout scenario in play here, unlike what we saw at Izyum and Popasna.
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Old 8th September 2022, 07:24 AM   #295
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
there will be no meaningful counteroffensive
That aged well.

Quote:
On Wednesday, Ukraine launched a surprise counterattack near the country’s second biggest city of Kharkiv, encircling Balakliia, a strategically important town of 27,000 people, and recapturing several smaller settlements.
Oopsie!


And the Russian milibloggers are showing a sweet mix of despair and bitter anger. Considering the tone of the posts and how well connected some of these guys are to the frontline, I'm starting to think things are even worse for the Russians than is being reported.

Ultranationalist war criminal, FSB colonel and now blogger, Igor Gerkin is in a pickle

Quote:
“The war in Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia,” Igor Girkin, a far-right nationalist, grumbled in a video address to his 430,000 followers on Telegram on Monday. “We have already lost, the rest is just a matter of time.”
And that was from Monday...

Quote:
“It must be stated that in Balakliia, the armed forces of Ukraine have completely outplayed our command,” Starshe Eddy, a popular pro-war Russian blogger, wrote on his Telegram channel.
Err, yeah.

Quote:
“Mobilisation is, let’s put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat,” wrote Andrei Morozov, another popular blogger.
Probably true, but Putin knows full mobilisation is an admission of failure and would come with enormous political risks for him and his elite circle.

Quote:
For now, Girkin and other military bloggers are likely to keep up their daily criticism as Putin’s bloody military offensive has stalled in Ukraine. “Don’t EXPECT ANY BIG WINS in the next 2–3 months,” he wrote in a post this week. “If our Kremlin elders do not change their tactics, we will be seeing catastrophic defeats by then.”
Oh.

All from https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-army-response

While I am here, I'd highly recommend "War translated" on the twitter.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated?re...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
It is completely pro-Ukrainian but the guy translates a lot of Russian bloggers, intercepted phone calls, interviews etc.
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Old 8th September 2022, 07:29 AM   #296
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
That aged well.
In a post in the last couple of days, Childlike Empress seems to be saying that a Ukrainian counteroffensive has to dislodge Russia from Crimea to be considered meaningful.

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
You can spin all day my words to meaning anything else than that there will be no meaningful counteroffensive that achieves anything near the goals stated by the clowns in Kiev, like taking back Crimea. If it makes you feel better. That they will send more people to the meat grinder I never doubted. Because I know the people "you" support.

The above quote was from yesterday btw, the latest is just out. While they claimed yesterday that they shot down another MI-8 helicopter, today it is 3 SU-25. So we are now at 290 planes and 152 helicopters. Which of course never existed and hence now don't exist anymore.
The again, the inclusion of the "meaningful" modifier is a big difference from the original assertion from late July contained in this post:

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
There will be no Ukrainian counter-offensive. It is essentially over already. As Putin said, they haven't even started yet (paraphrasing). I lurk in your thread and I admire your intention, but these people will stay with you for a long time. The Ukraine is toast.

Last edited by The Don; 8th September 2022 at 07:37 AM.
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Old 8th September 2022, 07:35 AM   #297
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Originally Posted by FatherLukeduke View Post
Quote:
“Mobilisation is, let’s put it bluntly, our only chance to avoid a crushing defeat,” wrote Andrei Morozov, another popular blogger.
Probably true, but Putin knows full mobilisation is an admission of failure and would come with enormous political risks for him and his elite circle.

Russia will suffer a crushing defeat even if Putin does announce mobilization. It just might take longer, and it will certainly result in more dead and crippled young Russian men.
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Old 8th September 2022, 07:39 AM   #298
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Interesting theory on why Ukraine telegraphed their offensive towards Kherson:

Ukrainian officials, defending their country against Russian aggressors, began doing something in July that seemed odd, even counterintuitive: They started speaking loudly and regularly about their plans to liberate Kherson—a key southern city that Russia seized only a week after invading Ukraine on February 24. Indeed, the Ukrainians telegraphed their intentions in a way that the Russians could not mistake. This was like waving a red cape at an angry, incompetent bull. Almost immediately, rumors proliferated that the Russians were racing reinforcements to Kherson to prepare for the Ukrainian attack.

Goading the Russians into doing so seems to have been the Ukrainians’ exact goal. Fighting in Kherson plays to Ukrainian strength far more than to the Russians’. Russian occupiers in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas, where the war had been concentrated from April until July, can operate very close to the Russian border, seem to have solidly functional rail lines, and are currently trying to pressure the Ukrainians from two sides at the tip of the fighting around the town of Siversk. Fighting in Kherson, by contrast, nullifies almost all of Russia’s advantages in the Donbas. The Russians are at the edge of their supply lines, while the Ukrainians can maneuver around them. Kherson is deeper into Ukraine than the Donbas, so Russian aircraft have farther to travel to reach the front lines, and that clearly makes them nervous; they prefer to fly mostly over Russia itself or its ally Belarus. Finally, the entire Russian fighting force in Kherson depends for its supplies on just a small number of bridges that span the wide Dnipro River.


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...herson/671364/
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Old 8th September 2022, 07:47 AM   #299
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This from official Ukr goverment people:

Quote:
Ukrainian forces have recaptured 700+ square km of territory in south of Ukraine as well as east, where they've advanced up to 50km into Russian lines, retaking 20+ villages,
(For us metrically clueless 'Mercans, 700 square km is about 270 square miles.)

There are claims that there is still fighting in Balakeya/Blaakliya/Balakiia but Livemap has a video still showing the Ukrainian flag over the city council building.

Some of the Russian bloggers were claiming even further UKr advances yesterday, with claims that there was fighting at Savyntsi (south of Balakliia,) that Chkalovske had fallen. No such luck yet, but this is still a nice big breakthrough that's still advancing.
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Old 8th September 2022, 08:27 AM   #300
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I suspect that at least some Russian units are breaking and running, though I doubt this will turn into a general rout, at least not within the next several days.
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Old 8th September 2022, 08:34 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I suspect that at least some Russian units are breaking and running, though I doubt this will turn into a general rout, at least not within the next several days.
I wonder if this might explain pro-Russian sources overstating Ukrainian gains: they are providing cover for routing Russian units shouting: "They're everywhere! They're crawling out of the ground!!!! Save yourselves!!!!"
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Old 8th September 2022, 08:42 AM   #302
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At least it's a pleasant change of pace from "Russia is winning this a quarter mile at a time".
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Old 8th September 2022, 08:45 AM   #303
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I suspect that at least some Russian units are breaking and running, though I doubt this will turn into a general rout, at least not within the next several days.
It won't turn into a general rout because the Russians lack the comms to know when they should be routing, and they lack the logistics to actually withdraw en masse anyway.

"You see, Ivan, even if we had heard on the radio yesterday that we should abandon this position before it is overrun - the bridge is down, the pontoon can only move one truck at a time, and the next train isn't due for another week. Plus we don't even have a working radio link to brigade. So we would have stood fast and kept fighting anyway."
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Old 8th September 2022, 08:47 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by Reformed Offlian View Post
I wonder if this might explain pro-Russian sources overstating Ukrainian gains: they are providing cover for routing Russian units shouting: "They're everywhere! They're crawling out of the ground!!!! Save yourselves!!!!"
Yeah, rumors about fighting in Hrushivka (10 KM WSW of Kupiansk) and Senkove (30ish KM south of Kupiansk).
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:00 AM   #305
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The firemap function on the Deepstatemap shows a lot of fire just west of Shevenkove within the past six hours. Quite a lot.

Also some around Hrushivka.
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:04 AM   #306
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It won't turn into a general rout because the Russians lack the comms to know when they should be routing, and they lack the logistics to actually withdraw en masse anyway.

"You see, Ivan, even if we had heard on the radio yesterday that we should abandon this position before it is overrun - the bridge is down, the pontoon can only move one truck at a time, and the next train isn't due for another week. Plus we don't even have a working radio link to brigade. So we would have stood fast and kept fighting anyway."
Which is a reason to destroy bridges/barges that can transport vehicles but not people on foot.

A few thousand defeated Russian soldiers, on foot and with no heavy equipment, on the Russian side of the Dnipro would probably be better than them getting captured or killed after fighting.
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:08 AM   #307
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Any day now, Putin will call for Total War.
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:18 AM   #308
lobosrul5
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Any day now, Putin will call for Total War.
What will that mean exactly? Digging T-34's out of museums, handing conscripts AK-47's, SKS's... Mosin-Nagants for human wave attacks? Nukes, chemical weapons? Purchasing arms from North Korea (lol)?

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Old 8th September 2022, 09:22 AM   #309
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
It won't turn into a general rout because the Russians lack the comms to know when they should be routing, and they lack the logistics to actually withdraw en masse anyway.

"You see, Ivan, even if we had heard on the radio yesterday that we should abandon this position before it is overrun - the bridge is down, the pontoon can only move one truck at a time, and the next train isn't due for another week. Plus we don't even have a working radio link to brigade. So we would have stood fast and kept fighting anyway."
I'd say it will be a rout because of lack of communication, rather than an organized strategic retreat. What was it called in WW2 during the Battle of France, tank disease or something? At the first sign of German armor whole units would break and run away, or surrender. Units with no comms, low ammo, insufficient ant-armor weapons, possibly lack of food for days are much more likely IMO to surrender or bolt.
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:22 AM   #310
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
What will that mean exactly? Digging T-34's out of museums, handing conscripts AK-47's, SKS's... Mosin-Nagants for human wave attacks? Nukes, chemical weapons?
Seriously, though, general mobilization seems like the last resort. I mean, it would be a brutal admission of failure. Imagine having to motivate your whole population in an existential war, to defend the homeland... for a fight you picked!
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:29 AM   #311
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Any day now, Putin will call for Total War.
To be fair, he's pretty stuck.

Starting a short successful war to prop up your popularity at home only works when it's short and succeeds.
If the war fails then the Junta in Argentina is a good example of what will happen, but keeping on with a war that your own soldiers do not endorse while also not paying said soldiers.. well a Russian leader should know what happens then too.
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:30 AM   #312
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... when it's not even an existential war! And your homeland isn't even under attack!
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Old 8th September 2022, 09:33 AM   #313
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
... when it's not even an existential war! And your homeland isn't even under attack!
What percentage of the Russian population thinks it is though?
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:15 AM   #314
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I suspect that at least some Russian units are breaking and running, though I doubt this will turn into a general rout, at least not within the next several days.
Agreed... but, for the first time, it's not an entirely irrational possibility. That's quite a change, in a fairly short period of time.
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:21 AM   #315
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Originally Posted by Jimbo07 View Post
Seriously, though, general mobilization seems like the last resort. I mean, it would be a brutal admission of failure. Imagine having to motivate your whole population in an existential war, to defend the homeland... for a fight you picked!
Against an enemy you predicted would collapse within three weeks, with its population cheering you on.
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:29 AM   #316
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Originally Posted by SpitfireIX View Post
I suspect that at least some Russian units are breaking and running, though I doubt this will turn into a general rout, at least not within the next several days.
When it does, Captain Swoop will reappear to say "See?".
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:41 AM   #317
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Putrid can always claim he was fouled by NATO: all those missiles and tanks and UAVs and stuff! And cyborgian inhuman hypersoldiers cloned from body parts -- good Slavic Russian body parts sawed off prisoners probably I bet!

How much of that would the muzhiks believe? Enough for his purposes?
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:44 AM   #318
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Originally Posted by lobosrul5 View Post
What percentage of the Russian population thinks it is though?
I go back and forth on this. On the one hand, I remember Soviet-era reports that the populace generally understood they were being lied to, and were mostly just trying to go along with the regime to get along with the regime. On the other hand, there are reports today of frustrated Russian ethno-patriotism and a mythology of Russian exceptionalism and destiny, that might make believing the lies more rewarding in some way.

I expect that most of the "true believers" are already invested in the war effort. The trick will be motivating the rest of the populace that probably suspects the government is dildos and this war is a bowl of dicks.
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:45 AM   #319
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Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge View Post
When it does, Captain Swoop will reappear to say "See?".
Hopefully. I miss the good Captain.
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Old 8th September 2022, 10:56 AM   #320
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I go back and forth on this. On the one hand, I remember Soviet-era reports that the populace generally understood they were being lied to
IIRC, two major news organizations in the USSR were Pravda ("Truth") and Izvestia ("News"). The soviet joke was that there's no news in Truth, and no truth in News.
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