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Tags 2020 elections , joe biden , Kamala Harris

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Old 3rd March 2021, 01:21 PM   #2081
Mumbles
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Yes, painting him as an impediment to the Democratic agenda will definitely motivate him. As that is what he already paints himself as, it will motivate him to continue impeding.

What can they threaten to take away? What can they promise him? This isn't specifics, this is vague pabulum that ignores the reality of the situation.



Other than his say so? What other evidence would you accept?
Meanwhile, people who wanted a federal government that works could have voted to toss out, among others, Lindsay Graham, Moscow Mitch McConnell, Cornyn, Concerned Collins, and so forth. Maybe reelected Doug Jones as well, he was always a bit iffy.

But white peopleTM, the brand, keep voting against higher salaries, better health care access, education, improved policing, and so forth, soo...
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Old 3rd March 2021, 03:41 PM   #2082
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
Meanwhile, people who wanted a federal government that works could have voted to toss out, among others, Lindsay Graham, Moscow Mitch McConnell, Cornyn, Concerned Collins, and so forth. Maybe reelected Doug Jones as well, he was always a bit iffy.

But white peopleTM, the brand, keep voting against higher salaries, better health care access, education, improved policing, and so forth, soo...
Yep. West Virginians are quite happy to have Manchin block a higher minimum wage, even if it would benefit them. Just so long as it hurts someone else more, they're content. West Virginia is 94% white.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 04:42 PM   #2083
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Biden called the removal of mask mandates, "Neanderthal thinking". The cavemen in the Geico commercials were offended.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 06:00 PM   #2084
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Originally Posted by wareyin View Post
Yep. West Virginians are quite happy to have Manchin block a higher minimum wage, even if it would benefit them. Just so long as it hurts someone else more, they're content. West Virginia is 94% white.
Quote:
The poll, which was conducted by GBAO research, found 63 percent of West Virginia residents saying they support the $15 federal minimum wage increase.
https://www.newsweek.com/aoc-questio...rts-it-1572450
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Old 3rd March 2021, 06:07 PM   #2085
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/stat...57767866380292

If Harris allows the Parliamentarian decision to stand, that's pretty much shutting the door on any chance of any min wage hike. It would be better to overrule the Parliamentarian and let the $15 wage fail to get 51 votes, because at least that leaves open the possibility of future passage through the reconciliation process.

If not, it's pretty much over. It's hard to imagine 10 Republican ghouls crossing the aisle to get to 60 votes, even if a lesser wage hike approved by Manchin were proposed.

If Harris allows the Parliamentarian ruling to stand, min wage increase is a dead issue.
Not completely dead, as they have the chance to tack the minimum wage on to any old bill that has to pass in 2 years. Last two years of Biden, no chance.

Biden might run again, but I am not going to give it more than 50/50 chance that he runs.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:29 PM   #2086
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Originally Posted by Firestone View Post
Republican president: "I have just signed an executive order abolishing the cancelling of Christmas."
Republican supporters: "Hail to the Chief! Eight more years!"

Democratic president: "Here's a $1.9T Covid relief bill, with payments of $1,400 to most individuals, a $400 per week unemployment supplement through Aug. 29, along with an extension of programs making millions more people eligible for jobless benefits, an expansion of the child tax credit to give families up to $3,600 per child over a year, $20 billion for Covid-19 vaccine distribution and $50 billion for testing and tracing efforts, $350 billion in state, local and tribal government relief, $25 billion for assistance in covering rent payments, $170 billion for K-12 schools and higher education institutions to cover reopening costs and aid to students."
Democratic supporters: "Traitor, it doesn't even include my pet proposal."
There was a Covid relief bill during Trump's time with a Republican Senate, too. It sent those checks out to more people and offered a bigger unemployment benefit. What impression do you expect this to make on most people about which party is helping them more? (Hint: in some states surveys found a significant portion of Trump's 2020 voters who said they did so because his name was on the checks they were sent.)
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:33 PM   #2087
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
There was a Covid relief bill during Trump's time with a Republican Senate, too. It sent those checks out to more people and offered a bigger unemployment benefit. What impression do you expect this to make on most people about which party is helping them more? (Hint: in some states surveys found a significant portion of Trump's 2020 voters who said they did so because his name was on the checks they were sent.)
I don't believe them.

But that's neither here nor there. I think Biden admin and Dems should work to make this succeed regardless.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 08:51 PM   #2088
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
It's odd, but obviously people say they're in favor of a raised minimum wage in a survey, and then happily vote in politicians who promise to keep it down. In Florida MW was put on the ballot, got voted in, yet still the state went for Trump and House Republicans won 16 out of 27 districts, flipping 2.
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Old 3rd March 2021, 09:42 PM   #2089
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Hadn't heard this before, but apparently it's a thing: CNN commentator says the QAnon crowd thinks "President Biden" is really a body double.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ea...n-body-double/
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Old 3rd March 2021, 11:21 PM   #2090
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
This is what I mean when I say that people can't just say "I support X", and have everyone say "Well, see, they support it."

Did they vote for Moscow Mitch and Joe Manchin? If so, they didn't actually support it at a national level, now did they? Are they pushing for some state or local minimum wage law? If the answer is "nothing" then they don't really support it at all.

If they want to say "I'm more worried about abortion//low taxes/black people getting to vote/the sanctity of the filibuster/whatever"...okay, that's the bargain they made, but then they *really* support those, and not the $15/hour minimum.

(I seriously can't think of anything good Moscow Mitch supports off the top of my head - the most I can come up with is abortion restrictions if one considers it to be "murdering babies" sincerely, which yeah, I understand but strongly disagree with, so I went with that)
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Old 4th March 2021, 12:51 AM   #2091
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A few weeks ago I ran across a survey finding that the average Republican voter doesn't know what Republican politicians have been actually working toward; they think they're voting for what they want and don't realize they're voting against it.

Last edited by Delvo; 4th March 2021 at 12:52 AM.
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Old 4th March 2021, 05:04 AM   #2092
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
This is what I mean when I say that people can't just say "I support X", and have everyone say "Well, see, they support it."

Did they vote for Moscow Mitch and Joe Manchin? If so, they didn't actually support it at a national level, now did they? Are they pushing for some state or local minimum wage law? If the answer is "nothing" then they don't really support it at all.

If they want to say "I'm more worried about abortion//low taxes/black people getting to vote/the sanctity of the filibuster/whatever"...okay, that's the bargain they made, but then they *really* support those, and not the $15/hour minimum.

(I seriously can't think of anything good Moscow Mitch supports off the top of my head - the most I can come up with is abortion restrictions if one considers it to be "murdering babies" sincerely, which yeah, I understand but strongly disagree with, so I went with that)
Sure, politics is complicated, people vote against their own interests all the time.

My point is simply that Manchin is not bulletproof on this issue. Conservatives, generally speaking, are vulnerable on the issue of minimum wage.

Even in deep red Florida a min wage hike passed by popular referendum, even though the Republican state government never would have passed such a thing into law through the normal process. This is an issue with the potential to cut through the partisan noise and appeal to people.

This is exactly the kind of wedge issue that conservatives can be attacked on. Manchin isn't invulnerable to this kind of thing.
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Old 4th March 2021, 05:08 AM   #2093
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This article more elegantly expresses what I was trying to go for in my comments generally. On the issue of Democrats means-testing the covid relief:

Democrats Are Pathologically Short-Changing America

Quote:
There’s a simple logic behind this: that richer members of society shouldn’t get the same benefits as the poor. The process of deciding exactly how to define and administrate those boundaries even has a name, called “means-testing.”

Democrats absolutely love this process, because it allows them to sit merrily on the fence between actual social welfare and the made-up, GOP-pandering notion of “fiscal responsibility.” This is Joe Manchin’s entire political career in a nutshell, and it’s no surprise that he lobbied hard for these cuts. The end result, unfortunately, is that they pass bills and programs so laden with red-tape qualifications that thousands of people inevitably slip through the cracks. Aid makes its way to some people, but misses others. In this scenario alone — who’s to say that someone whose salary was technically above $80,000 on their last federal tax return doesn’t need the help?

And when you zoom out, the optics are equally terrible. Who actually wants this? Who actually cares if someone who makes a slightly better paycheck also gets a stimulus payment? In the worst possible future, it creates a situation where millions of American workers actually receive less under a Biden administration than they did under Trump.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...biden-1136201/

This is a losing strategy.
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Old 4th March 2021, 06:02 AM   #2094
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
A few weeks ago I ran across a survey finding that the average Republican voter doesn't know what Republican politicians have been actually working toward; they think they're voting for what they want and don't realize they're voting against it.
That’s not surprising - the 2020 Republican Convention did not even put forward a party platform, something an informed voter can usually contrast with the Democratic platform, and weigh one against the other to see which best aligns with their positions. It was at that point, the idea that it was now just “the party of Trump” became fully realized.
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Old 4th March 2021, 06:38 AM   #2095
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Truly impressive how the Democratic party find ways to totally **** themselves. They are on the cutting edge of technology when it comes to making themselves totally unlikeable.

Quote:
Moderate Democrats Strip Stimulus Checks From 12 Million Voters for No Reason

For weeks, a handful of moderate Democrats in the Senate have been fighting to prevent $1,400 COVID-relief checks from reaching their own upper-middle-class constituents. It has never been all that clear to the public — or, by all appearances, to the senators themselves — why they wanted to restrict eligibility for these relief payments so badly. It is not as though Joe Manchin or Jeanne Shaheen are opposed to welfare for the affluent in all forms. To the contrary, Shaheen has lambasted Republicans for restricting the state-and-local-income (SALT) deduction, a tax subsidy that primarily benefits well-off homeowners.

Nor could moderates claim to have the public on their side; the relief checks were overwhelmingly popular in their initially proposed form. And on this issue, one can’t attribute the moderates’ resistance to fealty to corporate interests; large retailers love stimulus checks.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...&utm_medium=s1



12 million less Americans will receive stimulus checks under the new means testing language added to the bill. 12 million that received aid under Trump, but won't under Biden. All this to save 0.63% of the total cost of the package.
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Old 4th March 2021, 06:55 AM   #2096
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
My point is simply that Manchin is not bulletproof on this issue. Conservatives, generally speaking, are vulnerable on the issue of minimum wage... This is exactly the kind of wedge issue that conservatives can be attacked on. Manchin isn't invulnerable to this kind of thing.
And even if he is completely immobile about it and does turn out to block a bill the other Democrats vote for (and he has been known to back down on some things before), look at the options the party had going in:

1. Try it anyway and have him do what he's going to do

or

2. Say "Oh well, nothing we can do, no point in ever even trying"

Which mindset would be more effective at creating the appearance for voters that it's what you ever actually even wanted in the first place? Which mindset makes you look like somebody the voters will feel good about voting for? Which mindset is the mindset of people who, after failing on one thing, still might keep trying on others? Which mindset at least has the possibility of ever succeeding on something, even if it is only a fraction of the time?

Remember to answer in terms of how people actually react to things, not how you think they should or they would if they were all you.
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Old 4th March 2021, 07:59 AM   #2097
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I bet that poll includes people from the metropolitan areas, which don't count to conservatives.
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Old 4th March 2021, 08:02 AM   #2098
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I bet that poll includes people from the metropolitan areas, which don't count to conservatives.
Manchin is a Senator, gerrymandering isn't a factor.
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Old 4th March 2021, 08:06 AM   #2099
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Manchin is a Senator, gerrymandering isn't a factor.
True, but that's easily mitigated by placing less polling stations in the cities and making it harder to vote.
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Old 4th March 2021, 08:10 AM   #2100
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
True, but that's easily mitigated by placing less polling stations in the cities and making it harder to vote.
Manchin is a Democrat (nominally), I doubt he benefits from driving down city turnout. Maybe he faces primary challenges from the left, but if he's squaring off against a more conservative Republican I doubt low city turnout helps.

His last election he won 49-46.
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Old 4th March 2021, 03:09 PM   #2101
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Manchin is a Democrat (nominally), I doubt he benefits from driving down city turnout. Maybe he faces primary challenges from the left, but if he's squaring off against a more conservative Republican I doubt low city turnout helps.

His last election he won 49-46.
His last election he literally said he didn't give a **** whether he won or lost. He won anyway. But sure, if you ignore all that I'm sure there's some way to pressure him into voting for something he's publicly been saying he is firmly against.
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Old 4th March 2021, 05:03 PM   #2102
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Manchin is a Democrat (nominally), I doubt he benefits from driving down city turnout. Maybe he faces primary challenges from the left, but if he's squaring off against a more conservative Republican I doubt low city turnout helps.

His last election he won 49-46.
That's a significant accomplishment in a state that went for Trump by around 40 points.
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Old 4th March 2021, 06:42 PM   #2103
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
This article more elegantly expresses what I was trying to go for in my comments generally. On the issue of Democrats means-testing the covid relief:

Democrats Are Pathologically Short-Changing America



https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...biden-1136201/

This is a losing strategy.
I only read the snippet you quoted because I reject that argument almost completely.
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Old 4th March 2021, 06:45 PM   #2104
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Truly impressive how the Democratic party find ways to totally **** themselves. They are on the cutting edge of technology when it comes to making themselves totally unlikeable.




https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...&utm_medium=s1



12 million less Americans will receive stimulus checks under the new means testing language added to the bill. 12 million that received aid under Trump, but won't under Biden. All this to save 0.63% of the total cost of the package.
How many of the 12 million will know that they would have gotten a payment under a different bill? And how many would change their vote because of that?

Also note that if you slice $1.9T into a number of small slices, then every part is small. It's not a good argument.
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Old 4th March 2021, 06:48 PM   #2105
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How many of the 12 million will know that they would have gotten a payment under a different bill? And how many would change their vote because of that?

Also note that if you slice $1.9T into a number of small slices, then every part is small. It's not a good argument.
They'll probably figure it out because they already got the $600 under Trump, but won't be getting the remaining 1400 under Biden.
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Old 5th March 2021, 05:23 AM   #2106
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Why do we even have a thread on this? I have it on good authority that Biden is president of a corporation, not the USA. Of course, I missed Trump's inauguration yesterday. How will I ever forgive myself?
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Old 5th March 2021, 05:43 AM   #2107
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How many of the 12 million will know that they would have gotten a payment under a different bill?
All of them, since they already did get them before.

Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
And how many would change their vote because of that?
Unknown, but if the answer is anything over 1 in every 279 of those, it's greater than Biden's margin of victory was. How sure are you that it's under 1 in 279?

And that's ignoring the other voters. Whether personally affected by it or not, anybody can see what happens, and plenty of people who are doing just fine are interested in how much the government helps other people. And what they'd all see on this subject so far is that the previous (and better) Covid bill was passed by a Republican Senate and signed without any downgrading interference by a Republican President, then later the idea of $2000 apiece was first floated by Trump, then when Congress didn't do that Trump executive-ordered another $300 per month for the unemployed, then Democrats shortened the originally-planned benefit period by a few months, Democrats produced a bill with smaller unemployment benefits than last time, Democrats campaigned on the "immediate, first week" $2000 checks as if it had been their own idea & then watered it down to an eventual maybe someday $1400 & came up with a "well technically" excuse, and Democrats have now put even that through a couple of rounds of "well, not those people... not them either..."... while also detaching the minimum-wage increase that was already attached and finding another "well technically" excuse to hide behind for that as well.

How many votes is that worth from the whole voting population, not just the ones whom the Democrats are cutting out for no reason? What would be the threshold at which you'd decide not to treat those votes as disposable surplus?

...Especially given that the Democrats' actions on this have all been without a single Republican vote in Congress gained for it or an ounce of pressure from Republicans to cause it, but just entirely the internal machinations of the Democrats themselves? When the other party isn't involved at all, it's not "compromise"; you're just revealing what you actually wanted yourself all along. And in this case, the DP is revealing that what it wants is to do less for the people than the maniacally self-absorbed Republican President whom they just finished a campaign against.

(And some people in this thread are treating the DP as the automatic default party to vote for because they're just so much more helpful than the RP. When is this ever supposed to start showing up in the DP's actual behavior? You may believe that the DP has that general reputation, but, for people who just follow what the politicians actually do when they get the chance instead of just listening to one side's rhetoric & excuses, it really doesn't, because it keeps going out of its way to not-earn it like this.)

Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
Also note that if you slice $1.9T into a number of small slices, then every part is small. It's not a good argument.
The population is over 300 million. That's around $6000 apiece, without even adjusting for the fact that not every individual person gets anything at all. You might think of several thousand dollars as "small", but most people don't.

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Old 5th March 2021, 03:08 PM   #2108
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Originally Posted by SezMe View Post
How many of the 12 million will know that they would have gotten a payment under a different bill? And how many would change their vote because of that?

Also note that if you slice $1.9T into a number of small slices, then every part is small. It's not a good argument.
The main problem here is...why bother cutting it at all?

"Oh no, some people who aren't outright desperate may get some small sum of money, too!" Um...so? Maybe they'll spend a bit more - or even save it. What they *won't* do is get angry that "the dems caved", or start yelling about "those lazy <insert derogatory term here>" taking my money!" What's the actual point of making the means test somewhat stricter? At best there's no benefit whatsoever - and at worst it helps the party that has no interest in actually governing, has nothing to offer but zombie ideas and genital-waving bigotry, and is openly anti-democracy.

(I suspect that very last part still hasn't sunk into Manchin's head somehow - then again, quite a few people on the left haven't quite figured it out either.)
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Old 5th March 2021, 04:37 PM   #2109
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8 Democratic Senators voted down the attempt to attach the $15 minimum wage to the covid relief bill.

Yep, nearly a third.

2022 and 2024 are not going to be pretty
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Old 5th March 2021, 05:46 PM   #2110
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
2022 and 2024 are not going to be pretty
Yep. 'Progressives' will refuse to compromise and opportunities to make real progress will be missed. Then they will blame Biden and 'Democrats' for it. And Republicans will gleefully join in the blame game even though they were 99% of the problem.

IOW, business as usual.
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Old 5th March 2021, 09:28 PM   #2111
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Originally Posted by Mumbles View Post
The main problem here is...why bother cutting it at all? <snip>
The 2022 and 2024 ad is easy to write:

Narrative: We Dems heard the complaints about profligate spending from fiscal conservatives and we took your concerns into account in our spending to alleviate the fiscal impacts of COVID. We fashioned out individual payments according to need rather than engaging in largess as Trump did, thus raising the debt by millions of dollars. We agree that being fiscally responsible is important but balanced that against the manifest needs of so many Americans. blah, blah ...

Those of you complaining about the cutoff are just letting the right set the context of the argument. The Dems should take a page out of Karl Rove's playbook and go at the enemy at his strong point. In this case, the GOP has successfully labeled the Dems as the party of tax and spend. To hell with them, hit them where they think they are safe: fiscal conservatism. Use good public policy to make good campaign strategy and then beat the GOP over the head with it.
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Old 5th March 2021, 09:28 PM   #2112
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Yep. 'Progressives' will refuse to compromise and opportunities to make real progress will be missed. Then they will blame Biden and 'Democrats' for it. And Republicans will gleefully join in the blame game even though they were 99% of the problem.



IOW, business as usual.
At the same time, we've been compromising on this issue for a decade or so and let me check my notes.

Oh, the minimum wage hasn't budged from where it was when we started.

This is the context "compromise" has for many people.
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Old 6th March 2021, 04:48 AM   #2113
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
8 Democratic Senators voted down the attempt to attach the $15 minimum wage to the covid relief bill.

Yep, nearly a third.

2022 and 2024 are not going to be pretty
8 is nearly 1/3 of 50 now?
One of us must have made a mathematical error because in my book you have to get to 16 to have nearly a third of Democratic Senators.
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Old 6th March 2021, 05:28 AM   #2114
wareyin
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
Yep. 'Progressives' will refuse to compromise and opportunities to make real progress will be missed. Then they will blame Biden and 'Democrats' for it. And Republicans will gleefully join in the blame game even though they were 99% of the problem.

IOW, business as usual.
Yes, even though 84% of the Democratic Senators vote yes, let's pretend that the 8 who joined the GOP in sinking the proposal represent the Dems more completely than the other 42. And let's blame the 42 for not getting it done rather than the 50 + 8 who actually prevented it from happening.
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Old 6th March 2021, 07:46 AM   #2115
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
A few weeks ago I ran across a survey finding that the average Republican voter doesn't know what Republican politicians have been actually working toward; they think they're voting for what they want and don't realize they're voting against it.
This one?

Data for Progress: Republicans don't know anything about their party. That's very bad for American democracy.
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Old 6th March 2021, 09:38 AM   #2116
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
From survey conclusions (highlighting mine)
This is a long-running trend, of voters, especially Republican voters, denying the extremism of the positions that the party holds on questions of political economy. Matthew Yglesias, formerly of Vox, terms this phenomenon “the politics of incredulity.” For him, such voters are a major reason why these conditions persist. He argues “voters find [the Republican Party’s position on economic issues] so outlandishly bad that they’ll only believe someone espouses them if you can convince them first that the person in question is a heartless monster.” For Republican voters in particular, Yglesias adds: “Consequently, people who align with Republicans on broad values themes — whether opposition to abortion rights, love of guns, patriotism, or panic at the thought of a diversifying country — find it simply not credible that their champions are actually running on a politically toxic agenda that would clearly lose elections.”
America is so ******.
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Old 6th March 2021, 09:42 AM   #2117
Kestrel
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Originally Posted by The_Animus View Post
8 Democratic Senators voted down the attempt to attach the $15 minimum wage to the covid relief bill.

Yep, nearly a third.

2022 and 2024 are not going to be pretty
If the minimum wage is part of the covid relief bill it can’t be passed as a reconciliation bill.

If we want that kind of progress we need to neutralize the filibuster first.
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Old 6th March 2021, 11:08 AM   #2118
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I'm very proud of the Biden administration so far. The comparison between it and the Trump's is between night and day and this is just the beginning. Trump invoked the Defense Production Act but never used it. Biden invokes it and gets pharmaceutical competitors to work together. Biden originally promised enough vaccines for every American by the end of July and now have moved that target date up to the end of May.

Trump's idea of leadership was getting people to lie for him and actually destroy government. Biden has a lot to fix, but he's starting well.
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Old 6th March 2021, 11:45 AM   #2119
Aridas
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Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
I'm very proud of the Biden administration so far. The comparison between it and the Trump's is between night and day and this is just the beginning.
I can't honestly say that I'm very proud of the Biden Administration, given that that would require feelings of connectedness to such that I just... don't have in general. I can, however, say that I'm generally pleased with what's been done and what's in the works, especially under the circumstances. I have no illusions that they'll somehow be perfect in every way, of course, but they're doing quite well overall.

Originally Posted by acbytesla View Post
Trump invoked the Defense Production Act but never used it.
Quibble - I seem to recall that he actually did use it in relation to ventilators... to basically try to steal credit for logistics that had already been sorted out.
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Old 6th March 2021, 11:53 AM   #2120
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Senator Mitt Romney tweeted

@SenatorRomney
I voted against the $1.9 trillion #COVID19 package because it’s full of wasteful spending unrelated to urgent pandemic needs. Republicans, in good faith, sought to negotiate a compromise bill that would have targeted COVID assistance to those who really need it.
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