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Tags 2020 elections , donald trump , political speculation

View Poll Results: Will trump be re-elected?
Yes 28 14.51%
No 80 41.45%
Don't know, but I hope not 82 42.49%
Don't know, but I hope he does 3 1.55%
Voters: 193. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 31st March 2017, 01:31 AM   #121
Travis
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To get a clear idea we would need to know the following:

1) What is the economy like in the key rust-belt states that barely swung his way?
2) Who are the Democrats running?
3) Have tens of millions been purged from healthcare?
4) Are there any new wars?
5) How fatigued are people by the scandals?
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Old 31st March 2017, 01:38 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Depending on how voter ID and roll purging goes, this could be quite sufficient.
I'd say this is the major variable. USAians need to make damn sure this doesn't happen, or that there are work-arounds. The GOP plays dirty. Being nice won't help the Democrats win.
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Old 31st March 2017, 05:16 AM   #123
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
Trump's currently trying to antagonize Iran into war. Once we have a fresh shooting war Trump's win in 2020 is pretty much in the bag. He'll ramp up the fear and terror to new heights.
Remember though, the Iraq invasion is still fresh in many people's minds, and currently the majority of people view it as a mistake. While some may think Trump leading the country to war makes him more popular, it probably won't be as big a bump as other wars.

Quote:
If Trump presides over a terrorist attack on US soil he's going to be VERY difficult to defeat in 2020.
Perhaps. On the other hand, it may actually decrease his popularity. After all, some may think "He's supposed to protect us but didn't".

Quote:
He's not going to be impeached. By the time the mid-term elections come around, he'll have so much Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt in play the Democrats will probably lose seats, not gain them.
I figure what will cause the Democrats to loose seats is just pure luck... (There are more democratic seats up for reelection in the midterms than republicans; this makes them more vulnerable.)
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Old 31st March 2017, 05:41 AM   #124
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Given the fact that Trump won despite so many saying he had no chance, making predictions can be a bit tricky.

But, if I had to, I'd say he has no chance for re-election (assuming he runs) for a number of reasons:

- Trump's victory was extremely slim... he lost the popular vote, and only won the electoral college because he won a small number of states by a very tiny margin. It would not have taken much to tilt things in the Democrats favor last time. So, for Trump to win again, he'd have to ensure that he holds on to every vote he had last time, and/or attempt to reach out to moderates

- Trump has shown little or no interest in increasing his voter base. Little mention of "If you didn't vote for me hopefully I'll still make things better" statements in his early speeches. His rallies have been aimed at his current supporters. And his constant attacks on the media, etc. are unlikely to get him new votes. The lack of any sort of prolonged "honeymoon" period suggests that.

- Demographic shifts will continue to favor the democrats (i.e. increasing proportion of minorities, who tend to vote democrat.) Granted, its only 4 years, so demographics won't change THAT much, but as I said, Trump's victory was very slim so even a slight change may make a difference

- The media may be smarter when it comes to dealing with Trump, being less likely to give him a free pass on many of his lies as they did early in is 2016 campaign.

- Non-Trump protest Voters may be smarter now. Many sat out the election, or voted for Stein or did a write-in of Sanders in protest. You have to figure at least a few of these people will look at the 2016 election, realize that the lesser of 2 evils actually is less evil, and actually vote for the Democratic candidate. (Some will continue to be idiots to the end, but as I said, you don't need many votes to erase Trump's margin of victory.)

- A few of Trump's voters may wise up. After all, many of Trump's supporters voted for him based on some pretty vague promises that Trump has no way or intention to fulfill (bringing coal mining/manufacturing jobs back, drain the swamp). Other promises sounded good, but may make things worse for the country (build a wall, which will cost $billions, protectionist trade policies, etc.) Not to mention Trump's handing of health care will probably end up killing off many of his own supporters. Literally. (I remember reading that on average the past Republican health care bill would have affected Trump supporters more negatively than non-trump supporters.) Yes, he will continue to get support from of the more brain-damaged in the population, but he only needs to lose a few votes to be defeated.
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Old 31st March 2017, 06:00 AM   #125
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Quote:
- Russia might not try to/be able to meddle in the election - at least not to the same extent. Hell, they might not even favor Trump a second time around.
Russia doesn't want a stable and coherent U.S.. I cannot imagine a Democratic Party candidate who would make the U.S. less stable and less coherent than Trump.
I think the main point the other poster was making was that Russia may not be ABLE to meddle in the election. The media is more aware of Russian hacking issues, and voters are 'bothered' by it. Hopefully that will mean russia won't have the same ability to convince voters to vote for a racist Orangutan.

As for Russia favoring Trump, Putin wants what's best for Putin. In the last election that was "destabilize the U.S., and punish Hillary". If Hillary isn't running, that will eliminate at least some of the personal motive.

Quote:
Journalists will do whatever drives the most traffic to their paper/website/channel. If covering Trump's every pronouncement does that then that's what they'll do. Trump will IMO be box office in 2020, possibly even more than he was in 2016.
True, journalists are interested in ratings/sales/etc. and will cover Trump extensively in 2020 because of it.

But, they may be more proactive in pointing out his flaws. Remember, one of the main criticisms of the media is that they allowed Trump to basically spout nonsense for months before they started engaging in more fact checking.

Quote:
Depending on how voter ID and roll purging goes, this could be quite sufficient.
We've already seen Voter ID / purging happen in the past election. I'm sure it hurt the democrats, but Hillary still won the popular vote. In order for things to be worse for the Democrats, there would have to be NEW voter ID laws in key swing states (and those states would have to be run by republicans.)
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Old 2nd April 2017, 08:28 PM   #126
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New polling came out this week!

Trump (43%) vs Warren (48%)

Trump (40%) vs Biden (54%)

Trump (42%) vs Booker (45%)

Trump (41%) vs Franken (46%)

Trump (41%) vs Sanders (52%)

Trump (40%) vs Oprah (47%)

Trump (41%) vs Mark Cuban (40%)

Trump (35%) vs Generic Democrat (43%)

http://http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf
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Old 3rd April 2017, 12:34 AM   #127
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
New polling came out this week!

Trump (43%) vs Warren (48%)

Trump (40%) vs Biden (54%)

Trump (42%) vs Booker (45%)

Trump (41%) vs Franken (46%)

Trump (41%) vs Sanders (52%)

Trump (40%) vs Oprah (47%)

Trump (41%) vs Mark Cuban (40%)

Trump (35%) vs Generic Democrat (43%)

http://http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf
There are some crazy results in there. One thing it does show is how far the divide between the US right and the Center-Left is, and how far out of touch with both reality and the rest of Moderate and Liberal America those on the far right really are.
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Old 3rd April 2017, 04:26 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
New polling came out this week!

Trump (43%) vs Warren (48%)

Trump (40%) vs Biden (54%)

Trump (42%) vs Booker (45%)

Trump (41%) vs Franken (46%)

Trump (41%) vs Sanders (52%)

Trump (40%) vs Oprah (47%)

Trump (41%) vs Mark Cuban (40%)

Trump (35%) vs Generic Democrat (43%)

http://http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf

You can trust those polls, they're not like the others
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Old 3rd April 2017, 04:28 AM   #129
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
You can trust those polls, they're not like the others
National polls accurately predicted that Trump would lose the popular vote.
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Old 3rd April 2017, 04:40 AM   #130
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
National polls accurately predicted that Trump would lose the popular vote.
All of the Election Polling was pretty much spot on, the way the pundits read them was not.
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Old 3rd April 2017, 04:52 AM   #131
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Originally Posted by Dumb All Over View Post
He runs pretty good, so good in fact he won the Presidency.
And winning the election did not stop him from continuing to run for president.
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Old 3rd April 2017, 04:59 AM   #132
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Originally Posted by ponderingturtle View Post
And winning the election did not stop him from continuing to run for president.


That's a good point. He is still, for all intents and purposes, running as if he is still just a candidate.
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Old 3rd April 2017, 05:02 AM   #133
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
That's a good point. He is still, for all intents and purposes, running as if he is still just a candidate.
Rally's are fun and you don't have to deal the the press like when you sign executive orders. Those are unfun things for losers. So sad they would use that as a chance to attack him with lies!
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Old 3rd April 2017, 08:09 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by halleyscomet View Post
That's a good point. He is still, for all intents and purposes, running as if he is still just a candidate.
He has officially never really stopped being a candidate.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/01/27...d-re-election/
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Old 3rd April 2017, 09:26 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
New polling came out this week!

Trump (43%) vs Warren (48%)

Trump (40%) vs Biden (54%)

Trump (42%) vs Booker (45%)

Trump (41%) vs Franken (46%)

Trump (41%) vs Sanders (52%)

Trump (40%) vs Oprah (47%)

Trump (41%) vs Mark Cuban (40%)

Trump (35%) vs Generic Democrat (43%)

http://http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf
Is it too late for the George Takei candidacy idea?
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Old 4th April 2017, 02:18 AM   #136
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Anything's possible, but I seriously doubt he'll get reelected.
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Old 4th April 2017, 02:26 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
Anything's possible, but I seriously doubt he'll get reelected.
Because he won't be a candidate (because he's been removed as president or he chooses not to stand) or because he will run and be defeated by the Democratic Party candidate ?

My own opinion is that if he runs in 2020 he wins regardless of how ineffectual his presidency has been because he'll have near 100% support from GOP supporters (either because they think he's a good candidate or blind party loyalty) and at least some "independents" will be swung by the media.

I don't see him voluntarily standing down as President or not running again so IMO the only reason he wouldn't run is because he cannot - either because he is disqualified or because he is unable to run through ill health (or worse).
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Old 4th April 2017, 02:42 AM   #138
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Because he won't be a candidate (because he's been removed as president or he chooses not to stand) or because he will run and be defeated by the Democratic Party candidate ?

My own opinion is that if he runs in 2020 he wins regardless of how ineffectual his presidency has been because he'll have near 100% support from GOP supporters (either because they think he's a good candidate or blind party loyalty) and at least some "independents" will be swung by the media.

I don't see him voluntarily standing down as President or not running again so IMO the only reason he wouldn't run is because he cannot - either because he is disqualified or because he is unable to run through ill health (or worse).
The GOP could also nominate someone else, leaving him with only the option of running as independent.

Not all that likely, I know.

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Old 4th April 2017, 07:10 AM   #139
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
He has officially never really stopped being a candidate.

https://politicalwire.com/2017/01/27...d-re-election/
Not quite so. He didn't begin the re-election campaign officially until inauguration, and so between election and inauguration, he was not a candidate.

Still, the situation is totally **********, no doubt. Run the country for at least a year or two before hitting the campaign trail.
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Old 4th April 2017, 07:49 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by Upchurch View Post
Is it too late for the George Takei candidacy idea?
Like Biden, Hillary, Bernie, and of course Trump himself, he's too dang old. As am I, I hasten to add.
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Old 4th April 2017, 07:55 AM   #141
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Because he won't be a candidate (because he's been removed as president or he chooses not to stand) or because he will run and be defeated by the Democratic Party candidate ?
Too many barriers along the way: unpopularity, possible impeachment, better democratic candidate. I also don't know if the GOP can field other candidates to challenge him, were he to run again.
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Old 4th April 2017, 08:32 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
My own opinion is that if he runs in 2020 he wins regardless of how ineffectual his presidency has been because he'll have near 100% support from GOP supporters (either because they think he's a good candidate or blind party loyalty) and at least some "independents" will be swung by the media.
He had the support of GOP voters (as well as his own supporters) in the last election, and he still lost the popular vote and only won the election due to winning a few swing states by the tiniest of margins.

"Near 100%" won't cut it next time around... he can't afford to lose any supporters (which won't happen, since most of Trump's promises were shown to be bunk, and some of the things he's actually enacted were unpopular), and/or he needs to grow his voter base (unlikely, since he has shown a complete unwillingness to reach outside his current klan of supporters.)
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Old 4th April 2017, 08:33 AM   #143
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
"Near 100%" won't cut it next time around... he can't afford to lose any supporters (which won't happen, since most of Trump's promises were shown to be bunk, and some of the things he's actually enacted were unpopular), and/or he needs to grow his voter base (unlikely, since he has shown a complete unwillingness to reach outside his current klan of supporters.)
He's already lost supporters.
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Old 4th April 2017, 10:21 AM   #144
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Trump will crank the fine-tuned lie machine up to 11, claiming all sorts of successes, real or imagined.

He will go on every possible attack against: Democratic candidates; their eventual running mate; the Democratic members of congress; the news media; any and all people, public and private, he can use as scapegoats and obstructionists; and Obama.

He will continue to speak in person and on record in near incomprehensible statements, heavily ladled with empty promises, rhetoric, and platitudes.

He will tweet 'til his fingers bleed.

He will take attention away from whatever cockup of the day happens to be by creating a new controversy - all of it too voluminous to keep track of.

He will have members of his administration, all of whom he didn't have in 2016, acting as campaign field generals, attacking on all fronts.

He will thoroughly utilize Air Force 1, along with the other trappings and pageantry of his office, throughout the campaign, reinforcing an air of legitimacy and prestige.

He will not have any significant primary opposition, enabling him to conserve his resources and concentrate his energy.

After three years of his relentless incompetence and idiocy while in office as well as another almost two from the earlier campaign, the general public will be entirely too punch drunk to put up much of a fight.

2020 is probably Trump's to lose.
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Old 4th April 2017, 10:53 PM   #145
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Originally Posted by Argumemnon View Post
He's already lost supporters.

You've got that right!

Quote:

Poll: Trump more unpopular than Obama ever was


Americans’ attitudes towards President Trump and Republicans are at a new low, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.

Overall, voters give Trump a 35 percent job approval rating, with 57 percent disapproving. That’s down from the 37 percent Quinnipiac reported just two weeks ago, and worse than Obama’s lowest rating in the poll of 38 percent back in 2013.

Tim Malloy, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, points out that President Bush had a lower rating in 2008, but that, “it took eight years, two unpopular wars and a staggering economy to get there.” Bush was viewed favorably by 28 percent of Americans at the time.

Mr. Trump isn’t doing well with women (63 percent disapprove), Democrats (91 percent), and non-white voters (77 percent). Even among his base, his numbers continue to slip; only 39 percent of men approve of President Trump’s performance, while 51 percent disapprove. White voters now disapprove of him 48 percent to 43 percent, and while a majority of Republicans (79 percent) still approve of him, that’s down from 81 percent two weeks ago.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tru...bama-ever-was/
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Old 4th April 2017, 11:18 PM   #146
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Trump has been driving toward impeachment since taking office.


Quote:
Another City Calls For A Trump Impeachment Probe

Since President Donald Trump took office in January, petitions have popped up all over the internet, including this one from ImpeachTrumpNow.org, which has nearly 1 million signatures, calling for an impeachment to end his presidency. Now, the movement is getting official recognition from the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts.

On Monday, the Cambridge City Council voted to call upon the U.S. House of Representatives to approve an investigation into the possibility of impeaching President Trump, the The Boston Globe reported.

https://www.good.is/articles/impeach-donald-trump
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Old 4th April 2017, 11:35 PM   #147
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Could this be the reason why Trump didn't want to throw out the first pitch?

Quote:
Protesters Hang Giant ‘Impeach Trump’ Banner At Washington Nationals Game



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.2db74a5a340f

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Old 4th April 2017, 11:39 PM   #148
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Originally Posted by skyeagle409 View Post
Could this be the reason why Trump didn't want to throw out the first pitch?

Perhaps he is embarrassed about the size of his hands?

Actually we do know that is a very sensitive thing for him he's been sending photos of his hands to someone decades after they made a comment about Trump being short fingered: http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/20...r-donald-trump
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Old 4th April 2017, 11:55 PM   #149
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Trump would have been booed very hard if he went to that game. Probably harder than Roger Goodell got booed at the Superbowl.
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Old 5th April 2017, 12:00 AM   #150
thaiboxerken
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Originally Posted by Darat View Post
Perhaps he is embarrassed about the size of his hands?
I think it's even simpler than that. A person who hasn't pitched looks rather silly throwing the first pitch at a game. Most people that participate in the tradition know this and are fine with a little humiliation of this sort, since it doesn't really matter much. Trump, however, never wants to look silly. He'd probably never sit on a dunk platform at a fair either.
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Old 5th April 2017, 12:04 AM   #151
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
I think it's even simpler than that. A person who hasn't pitched looks rather silly throwing the first pitch at a game. Most people that participate in the tradition know this and are fine with a little humiliation of this sort, since it doesn't really matter much. Trump, however, never wants to look silly. He'd probably never sit on a dunk platform at a fair either.
Then why does he walk around with orange skin and that terrible hair? lol
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Old 5th April 2017, 12:07 AM   #152
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Donald Trump Specials at LadBrokes:

Quote:
To serve full term: Evens
To leave office via impeachment or resignation before end of 1st term: 4/5
NOT to be re-elected as President in 2020: 2/5
To visit Russia before the end of 2017: 2/1
To win 2017 Nobel Peace Prize: 20/1
Right after the election, "impeachment or resignation" was 3/1.

Looks like a golden opportunity for Trump supporters who think he'll run in 2020:

Quote:
“The money is showing no signs of slowing down and we’ve been forced to cut Trump’s impeachment odds accordingly. We’ve taken five times the amount of bets on him failing to see out his full term than on him doing so.”
(Actually, if you wait a few weeks, you will probably get long odds instead of Evens. )
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Old 5th April 2017, 12:09 AM   #153
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Originally Posted by Civet View Post
I've also been quite poor at Trump-related predictions, so I'm going with a very enthusiastic "Yes!"

Hopefully, your record will remain intact.
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Old 5th April 2017, 01:11 AM   #154
thaiboxerken
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Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Then why does he walk around with orange skin and that terrible hair? lol
Because the emperor has no clothes. He is surrounded by people who compliment him on his appearance and smarts.
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Old 5th April 2017, 09:39 AM   #155
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Originally Posted by Regnad Kcin View Post
Trump will crank the fine-tuned lie machine up to 11, claiming all sorts of successes, real or imagined.
...
He will tweet 'til his fingers bleed.
...
He will continue to speak in person and on record in near incomprehensible statements, heavily ladled with empty promises, rhetoric, and platitudes.
Trump lied, made empty promises and tweeted constantly during the 2016 election. While he won the election he lost the popular vote.

Do you really think the lying and tweeting will be more successful next time?
Quote:
He will go on every possible attack against: Democratic candidates; their eventual running mate; the Democratic members of congress; the news media; any and all people, public and private, he can use as scapegoats and obstructionists; and Obama.
Obama will have been out of office for 4 years by then. While he may try to blame him for his problems, I figure at least a few Trump voters may start thinking that after 4 years Trump is responsible for what happens, rather than the guy that's been out of power for years.
Quote:
He will thoroughly utilize Air Force 1, along with the other trappings and pageantry of his office, throughout the campaign, reinforcing an air of legitimacy and prestige.
Trump seems adverse to the trappings of the office.... visiting the resort in Florida at every possibility, etc. Not sure how well people will associate Trump with Presidential prestige by 2020.
Quote:
He will not have any significant primary opposition, enabling him to conserve his resources and concentrate his energy.
This could be a double-edge sword. While the lack of significant primary competition will help him save resources, it will also mean less media attention in that time period, and Trump thrives on attention.
Quote:
After three years of his relentless incompetence and idiocy while in office as well as another almost two from the earlier campaign, the general public will be entirely too punch drunk to put up much of a fight.
On the other hand, many of his supporters may also be too worn down and just not go to vote (especially if Trump's actions affect them negatively... thinking of the trump supporters who oppose his signing of the internet privacy bill, or the voters who benefit from Obamacare but risk losing coverage under Trump.)

I'm not saying that Trump would get totally slaughtered in 2020 if he were to run. (Between political polarization, the number of bigots in the U.S. and the Republican efforts at voter suppression he'd still win quite a few states.) I'm just saying that his victory in 2016 was razor-thin, and even a small voter shift away from him and/or to the democrats would probably have him losing.
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Old 5th April 2017, 09:47 AM   #156
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I understand your considering, and at least somewhat disagreeing with, the points I made. However, my argument is meant to be taken in its entirety; each of the angles are strengthened by their support of the whole.

Not a chain. Chainmail.
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Old 6th April 2017, 07:09 AM   #157
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Originally Posted by MrFliop View Post
New polling came out this week!

Trump (43%) vs Warren (48%)

Trump (40%) vs Biden (54%)

Trump (42%) vs Booker (45%)

Trump (41%) vs Franken (46%)

Trump (41%) vs Sanders (52%)

Trump (40%) vs Oprah (47%)

Trump (41%) vs Mark Cuban (40%)

Trump (35%) vs Generic Democrat (43%)

http://http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf
Just replace 'Trump' with "a Republican' and you will understand the poll numbers. Trump could be worse than Hitler and it wouldn't matter to them - so long as he's a Republican they will support him.
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Old 6th April 2017, 07:19 AM   #158
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
Obama will have been out of office for 4 years by then. While he may try to blame him for his problems, I figure at least a few Trump voters may start thinking that after 4 years Trump is responsible for what happens, rather than the guy that's been out of power for years.


Heck they were blaming Bill Clinton during the election and he was President last millennium

Sure a few Trump voters may not blame Obama, instead they, like Trump will blame Democrats for not supporting his cruddy bills, Mexicans for not paying for his ridiculous wall and "leftists" for failing to MAGA
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Old 6th April 2017, 07:55 AM   #159
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post

Quote:
Obama will have been out of office for 4 years by then. While he may try to blame him for his problems, I figure at least a few Trump voters may start thinking that after 4 years Trump is responsible for what happens, rather than the guy that's been out of power for years.
Heck they were blaming Bill Clinton during the election and he was President last millennium

Sure a few Trump voters may not blame Obama, instead they, like Trump will blame Democrats for not supporting his cruddy bills, Mexicans for not paying for his ridiculous wall and "leftists" for failing to MAGA
Oh, I have no doubt that many/most Trump supporters will find any and all excuses to justify Trump's failures, including blaming Obama and the Democrats. (Trump has already tried shifting the blame when he talked about he didn't get any Democrats supporting his health care plan.)

But you don't need a widespread revolt against Trump by his supporters to have him lose an election in 2020. You just need him to lose ~1% of his voters to tip the scales against him.
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Old 6th April 2017, 08:31 AM   #160
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
But you don't need a widespread revolt against Trump by his supporters to have him lose an election in 2020. You just need him to lose ~1% of his voters to tip the scales against him.
You're quite right but there are a number of things working in Trump's favour. It's quite rare for a president to serve only a single term when it's not the third term of a particular party - the US electorate seems to like giving their presidents a full 8 years. It's entirely possible that he will lose the popular vote by an even wider margin but the things that made some states unexpectedly turn red, (white) working class dissatisfaction, a feeling that *something* has to change and so on will still be the same. The GOP will also be working super-hard to get those voter rolls purged and Voter ID implemented to keep hold of those gains.
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